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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 12/01/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 12-01-2003
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Ho Ho Ho...Hello December
Play of the Day:  Say Goodbye To The Channel

===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     12-01-2003            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9899.05 +116.59  9902.23  9785.35 1.65 bln   2168/ 694
NASDAQ   1989.82 + 29.56  1989.82  1968.54 1.80 bln   2041/1086
S&P 100   526.60 +  5.86   526.97   520.74   Totals   4209/1780
S&P 500  1070.12 + 11.92  1070.47  1058.20
RUS 2000  554.59 +  8.08   554.64   546.51
DJ TRANS 2961.58 + 40.35  2961.93  2922.40
VIX        16.77 +  0.45    17.03    16.77
VXO        15.97 -  0.74    16.66    15.71
VXN        26.29 +  0.66    26.63    25.97
Total Volume 3,835M
Total UpVol  2,878M
Total DnVol    849M
52wk Highs    1250
52wk Lows       17
TRIN          0.62
PUT/CALL      0.71
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Ho Ho Ho...Hello December
by James Brown

Bulls showed up on Wall Street rested and ready after the long 
Thanksgiving weekend.  Early reports for a strong opening to the 
holiday shopping season had investors in a buying mood.  News 
that the ISM numbers hit 20-year highs merely fanned the flames.  
The NASDAQ hit a new 22-month high while the DJIA and the S&P 500 
hit new 18-month highs.

U.S. stocks weren't the only ones in the green.  The Japanese 
NIKKEI average jumped 3 percent or 302 points to close at 10,403.  
The Hong Kong Hang Seng followed with a 139-point rise to 12,456.  
European stocks fared almost as well with a 1.55% rise in the 
British FTSE 100 and a 2.01% jump in the German DAX.  A Reuters 
manufacturing survey in Europe also reported improvement 
suggesting the recovery could be spreading from the U.S. to other 
nations.  

The 116-point gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) 
placed the index just under the 9900 level.  A strong showing in 
technology stocks pushed the NASDAQ to an arm's length away from 
the 2000 level at 1989.  The S&P 500 actually hit new intraday 
highs and broke out over the 1060-1063 region to close at 1070.  
Monday's rally was very broad-based with not one sector index 
closing in the red.  Out performing to the upside was the BTK 
biotech sector, which rose 4.25%.  The move was fueled by news 
that Protein Design Labs (PDLI) had settled a patent dispute with 
Genenetech (DNA).  This sent shares of PDLI soaring 22.79% to 
$17.02.  The DJUSHB home construction index was the next best 
performer, up 2.51%.  Homebuilders enjoyed a strong day after the 
strong construction numbers came out this morning.  The third 
best sector index today was the XAU gold & silver index, up 
2.32%. Gold stocks rose strongly as inflation concerns and the 
dollar's decline pushed gold futures to a 7-year high up $5.80 to 
$403.80 an ounce.  

Market internals were very bullish with the NYSE reporting 21 
stocks gaining for every 7 losers.  The NASDAQ's advance/decline 
ratio was also a bullish 2:1.  New highs soared to 889 between 
the two exchanges compared to just 16 new lows.  Up volume was 
more than 4 times down volume on the NYSE and 2.6 times down 
volume on the NASDAQ.  Total volume was a decent 3.4 billion for 
both the NYSE and NASDAQ.

Chart of the DJIA:



Chart of the NASDAQ



Chart of the S&P 500



According to ShopperTrak the holiday shopping season is off to a 
good start.  Store parking lots were full and consumers were in a 
spending mood.  Retail sales for "Black Friday", the day after 
Thanksgiving, were up 4.8 percent to $7.2 billion.  ShopperTrak, 
who combines Commerce Department data with its network of 30,000 
store traffic monitors, was upbeat for the 2003-shopping season.  
Friday's 4.8% gain is pretty strong considering that it is being 
compared to last year's Black Friday, which was up 6.8% from 
2001.  

Retail titan Wal-Mart issued its own Black Friday numbers and 
they were staggering.  The retailer sold $1.52 billion in 
merchandise on Friday alone.  That means $1 out of every $5 spent 
on Friday ended up at WMT.  The $1.52 billion number is a new 
one-day sales record for WMT but the stock ended the day down 2% 
as the biggest decliner in the DJIA and the heaviest drag on the 
S&P 500.  A couple of analysts were concerned that WMT's results 
weren't stronger.  The year over year 6% gain looks good but WMT 
had increased its square footage by 7 to 8 percent so 
expectations had been set pretty high.  

Overall the initial sales data was encouraging not only for its 
gains but because consumers appeared to be moving beyond discount 
items.  Higher-end stores showed improvement and that's a great 
vote of confidence by the consumer.  Unfortunately, it may be a 
facade.  Visa USA reported that sales using Visa credit and debit 
cards for the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving soared 12% 
from last year to more than $6.5 billion.   

The biggest event today was the November factory activity index 
numbers by the Institute for Supply Management.  Economists had 
been looking for an increase from 57 percent in October to 57.9 
percent in November.  What we got was a jump to 62.8 percent in 
November, making it the best month since December of 1983.  
Readings over 50 are signs of improvement and expansion while 
readings under 50 are read as declines and a contracting economy.  
The new orders component also hit a 20-year high rising to 73.7 
percent in November from 64.3 percent in October.  The ISM 
backlog of orders component rose to 59 percent up from 53.5 
percent in October.  The ISM production component rose to 68.3 
percent from 62.6.  One of the most encouraging increases was the 
3.3 percent jump in the ISM employment index.  This component 
jumped from a negative 47.7 percent in October to a 51 percent 
reading in November.  It was the first time factories had hired 
new workers since September of 2000 and it bodes well for this 
Friday's employment report.  The Institute said November was the 
fifth consecutive month of growth for the manufacturing sector 
and the 25th consecutive month of growth for the overall economy.  
You can read their report here:
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ROB122003.htm

Overshadowed by the ISM report was a positive construction 
spending number from the Commerce Department.  Economists had 
been looking for a rise of 0.7 percent growth and the report 
surprised with a 0.9 percent increase.  This set total 
construction spending to a record high annual pace of $922 
billion.  The news was not lost on homebuilders, which sent the 
DJUSHB index to a new all time high.  

I was a little surprised that the SOX semiconductor index didn't 
perform better today.  The Semiconductor Industry Association 
(SIA) reported the strongest monthly gain in 13 years with 
October chip sales surging 23 percent to $15.4 billion.  SIA 
President George Scalise commented on October's performance by 
saying the recovery is broad-based and from "all geographic 
markets" and "all product sectors".  The SOX index did hit a new 
intraday and closing one-year high but the gain was a muted 0.6 
percent.  

One of the biggest stories today was that of Boeing's CEO Phil 
Condit stepping down after 38 years at Boeing.  Last week Boeing 
(BA) was hit with scandal when it fired its CFO Mike Sears for 
violating company policies.  Allegedly Sears improperly 
communicated with an Air Force officer Darleen Druyun about 
future employment with Boeing while she was still acting as a 
government agent in the now controversial tanker-leasing 
contract.  Condit claims he was not involved in anything 
unethical but agreed to resign after pressure from the board of 
directors.  To replace him Boeing is waving the mandatory 
retirement age of 65 and calling on former BA employee Harry 
Stonecipher, currently 67 years old.  Stonecipher had been the 
CEO of McDonnell Douglas before the company merged with BA.  

Aside from the Boeing resignation it was a scarce day for bad 
news and investors may have been relieved to make it through the 
whole session without hearing more from Wall Street's mutual fund 
scandal.  We may not be so lucky tomorrow.  Looking ahead to 
Tuesday it will be interesting to see if buyers are willing to 
keep the momentum going in the NASDAQ and finally tag the 2000 
mark.  Meanwhile the DJIA has yet to conquer its battle with the 
9900 level.  

Traders will want to keep an eye on the bond market.  It was 
suggested that today's bond weakness was a combination of 
inflation concerns and money rotation out of bonds and into 
stocks.  The strong ISM data today combined with the dollar at 
new lows and spiking commodity prices has many speculating that 
the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise rates sooner than 
expected.  While no one expects a rate hike at next Tuesday's 
FOMC meeting the financial world will certainly be focused on 
their comments.  

As you may have heard December has a very strong history in favor 
of the bulls.  The Stock Trader's Almanac documents that over the 
past 50 plus years December is the best month for the S&P 500 and 
the second best month for the DJIA.  Now 2003 hasn't been the 
best year for trading seasonal trends but it's nice to know that 
the markets will be cruising toward 2004 with a tailwind.



===============
Play-of-the-Day  ( Bullish )
===============

Nextel Comms - NXTL - close: 26.29 change: +0.96 stop: 24.00*new*

Company Description:
Nextel has come a long ways since its humble beginnings as a radio 
dispatch company.  Providing mobile phone service, two-way radio 
dispatch, and paging services to business users; all through one 
Motorola handset, the company is growing into a major digital 
wireless services provider.  NXTL's digital network (Digital 
Mobile Network) constitutes one of the country's largest 
integrated wireless communications systems utilizing a single 
transmission technology.  NXTL has specialized mobile radio 
spectrum holdings in and around every major business and 
population center in the U.S., including all of the top 50 
metropolitan areas.

Why we like it:
As expected, Friday's shortened session didn't provide much in the 
way of trading opportunities in our new play on NXTL.  The 
attempted rally at the open was quickly reversed and the stock 
spent the remainder of the short session clawing its way back into 
positive territory, ending with a fractional gain.  The reversal 
from the early bounce should be no great surprise, as the stock is 
currently testing the upper Bollinger band ($25.27) and the top of 
its rising channel ($25.65).  Also recall that the $26 level was 
expected to offer some resistance, so we're sticking by our 
recommendation to buy a dip back near the $24.00-24.25 area, with 
strong support likely to be found just below there as the 10-dma 
($23.78), 20-dma ($23.86) and 30-dma ($23.51) converge.  Maintain 
stops at $23, wait for the pullback entry and then ride NXTL 
higher, as the upper B-Band and channel lines permit further 
upward movement.

Why This is our Play of the Day
Despite its inability to move higher on Friday, NXTL launched 
sharply higher at the open this morning, topping the $26 level for 
the first time since February 2001.  After a midday pullback, the 
bulls showed they were serious by propelling price through the 
morning highs to close the session, just off the intraday high of 
$26.34.  Now above the bottom of that gap, it appears NXTL is 
destined for a run at next solid resistance near $30 and today's 
strong volume is certainly encouraging, especially when we note 
that the stock broke out of its 17-month rising channel.  A 
pullback near the $25.00-25.40 area should now work for new 
entries, but we're still hesitant to chase the stock higher, given 
that price is well above the upper Bollinger band ($25.75).  That 
isn't to say that NXTL can't continue to power higher, but a 
pullback to consolidate becomes more likely the longer the stock 
rides along that upper band.  We're raising our stop to $24.00 
tonight, which is below the 10-dma ($24.05) and will be below the 
20-dma ($23.97) by tomorrow.

Annotated Chart of NXTL:
 


Picked on November 26th at  $25.27
Change since picked          +1.02
Earnings Date              1/15/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    17.0 mln
Chart:




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 12-01-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Loss Updates:   NXTL, JCP, FLIR, STLD, SIRI

Split Announcements: ANPI, CASB, DHI


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Updates
==================================================================

NXTL - long
Adjust from $23.00 up to $24.00

JCP - long
Adjust from $23.49 up to $23.95

FLIR - long
Adjust from $32.00 up to $32.65

STLD - long
Adjust from $18.49 up to $19.40

SIRI - long
Adjust from $1.85 up to $1.95


==================================================================
Split Trader/Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements:
-------------

ANPI seeks shareholder approval for 2-for-1 stock split.

Before today's opening bell, Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 
(NASDAQ:ANPI) announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 
2-for-1 stock split of its common shares.

The stock split is subject to shareholder approval at a meeting 
expected to take place on January 20th, 2004.  The expected record 
date is set for February 3rd.  This would be their first split 
since the first quarter of 2003.


About the company:
Angiotech Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is dedicated to enhancing the 
performance of medical devices and biomaterials through the innovative 
use of pharmacotherapeutics. To find out more about Angiotech 
Pharmaceuticals, Inc (NASDAQ: ANPI, TSX: ANP), visit our website at 
www.angiotech.com.
(Source: Company Press Release)


---


CASB declares 5-for-4 split

During today's session, Cascade Financial Corp (NASDAQ:CASB) 
announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 5-for-4 stock 
split of its common shares.

The payable date for the stock split is set for December 19th, 
2003 to shareholders on record as of December 5th.  This should 
increase shares of CASB to approximately 8.3 million shares 
outstanding on a post split basis.


About the company:
Established in 1916, Cascade Bank, the only operating subsidiary of 
Cascade Financial Corporation, is a state chartered commercial bank 
headquartered in Everett, Washington. Cascade Bank operates 15 full 
service offices, located in Everett, Lynnwood, Marysville, Mukilteo, 
Smokey Point, Issaquah, Clearview, Woodinville, Lake Stevens and 
Bellevue. In June 2003, Washington CEO Magazine ranked Cascade Bank 
the number one medium sized "Best Companies to Work For" in Washington 
State.
(Source: Company Press Release)

---

DHI constructs a 3-for-2 stock split of its common shares

During today's session, D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI) announced that 
its Board of Directors has approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its 
common shares.

The payable date for the stock split is set for January 12th, 2004 
to shareholders on record as of December 22nd, 2003.  This would 
be there first split since the first quarter of 2002.


About the company:
Founded in 1978, D.R. Horton, Inc. is engaged in the construction and 
sale of high quality homes designed principally for the entry-level 
and first time move-up markets. D.R. Horton currently builds and sells 
homes under the D.R. Horton, Cambridge, Continental, Dietz-Crane, 
Emerald, Melody, Milburn, Schuler, Stafford, Torrey, Trimark, and 
Western Pacific names in 20 states and 47 markets, with a geographic 
presence in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Southwest and 
Western regions of the United States. The Company also provides 
mortgage financing and title services for homebuyers through its 
mortgage and title subsidiaries.
(Source: Company Press Release)



==================================================================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

E       Eni Spa (ADS)              87.01    +1.69
PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd          39.90    +2.71
TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             82.65    +1.88
BP      BP Plc                     43.20    +0.51
SC      Shell Transport & Trading  39.16    +0.51
WB      Rachovia Corp              46.36    +0.61


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

SCS     Steelcase Inc              14.00    +1.60
PER     Perot Systems Corp         14.37    +1.97
PDLI    Protein Design Labs Inc    17.02    +3.16
ATI     Allegheny Technologies      9.42    +1.22


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

DB      Deutsche Bank Ag           71.36    +1.66
DD      Dupont E I Nemours & Co    42.70    +1.24
SNP     China Petro & Chem (ADS)   33.23    +2.33
KMB     Kimberly Clark Corp        55.33    +1.11
BF      BASF Ag (ADS)              51.08    +1.40
PRU     Prudential Financial Inc   40.30    +1.19


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

WMT     Wal-Mart Stores Inc        54.50    -1.14
PLCE    Children's Place Rtl Str   27.65    -1.02


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

NOC     Northrop Grumman Corp      92.42    -0.21
SWY     Safeway Inc                20.25    -0.50
FRO     Frontline Ltd (ADR)        20.92    -0.28




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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