Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 12/03/2003

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 12-03-2003
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:
--------------

Market Wrap:      Have We Made A Market Top?

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
     12-03-2003            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9873.42 + 19.78  9942.01  9851.42 1.65 bln   2168/ 694
NASDAQ   1960.25 - 19.82  2000.92  1960.13 1.80 bln   2041/1086
S&P 100   524.42 -  0.29   529.03   524.36   Totals   4209/1780
S&P 500  1064.73 -  1.89  1074.30  1064.63
RUS 2000  545.19 -  8.41   556.74   545.06
DJ TRANS 2939.51 +  3.15  2969.78  2936.48
VIX        16.63 +  0.36    16.68    15.77
VXO        16.41 -  0.12    16.41    15.84
VXN        27.34 +  0.62    27.34    26.25
Total Volume 4,364M
Total UpVol  2,492M
Total DnVol  2,492M
52wk Highs     898
52wk Lows       20
TRIN          1.10
PUT/CALL      0.71
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Have We Made A Market Top?
- Jane Fox

The day started off with a bang that pushed all major indices to 
new 520week highs and the Nasdaq and DOW past psychologically 
important hurdles of 2000 and 9900 respectively. Unfortunately 
the selling overtook the buying late in the session and the only 
major index to end in the green was the DOW due to the General 
Motors (GM) and Merck (MRK).

The sharp turn around we witnessed today this makes me wonder if 
we have reached a market top. With all the talk about overbought, 
overvalued and "the market needs a rest" one would be crazy to 
not at least think it could be a short-term top.  

chart of SPX daily:



Only time will tell if we have reached this pinnacle but for me a 
market top would reveal itself very simply. I would need to see 
MACD make a lower low, below the 0 line as well as price make a 
lower low.

Over at the DOW, you could almost here the champagne corks 
popping and the clear sparkling liquid flowing as the DOW made a 
daily high of 9942 breaching the all important psychological 9900 
level. Unfortunately the party did not last for it was not able 
to hold on to those gains and closed at 9873. So was this a 
market top in the DOW also? We could repeat the same story here 
but with the caveat the DOW's MACD divergence is not as 
pronounced as it is in SPX. 

chart INDU daily:



The champagne was not only flowing at the DOW by at the NASDAQ 
exchange also. For the first time in nearly two years the NASDAQ 
Composite broke above the 2,000 level, technically not an 
important number but psychologically very important.  A lot of 
analysts are saying this level was breached because of continued 
strong economic data and positive comments made about technology 
bellwethers Oracle (ORCL) and Intel (INTC) but I think it is just 
a reflection of the underlying bid we have seen in the market 
lately.  The NASDAQ actually reached 2001 at its intraday high, 
the highest level since mid-January 2002. Unfortunately the party 
did not last here either for the NAZ ended the day with a close 
of 1960, a 1.00% loss. Once again, have we witnessed a market top 
in the NASDAQ? 

chart NASDAQ daily:



The story on the NASDAQ is identical to the SPX with a market top 
revealing itself when the MACD and price both make lower lows. 
And once again only time will tell for we have been fooled before 
and one cannot discount the normally bullish time frame we are 
in. 

It was a good news day for those of you who hold General Motors 
shares. GM gapped up this morning when an analyst went on record 
that the company's pension plan is looking much better and it 
could raise its 2004 earnings guidance. Critical of the 
automaker's pension problems in the past, analyst Gary Lapidus 
said the company is likely to announce some "really good news" 
about the plan on a conference call Dec. 12. GM closed up 5.22%.

chart GM daily:



The other stock that helped the DOW to close in the green was 
Merck's (MRK) whose share price closed up 2.66% after the company 
said it expects net income to be between $3.11 and $3.17 a share 
in 2004, up from between $2.90 and $2.95 this year. This forecast
 was based on higher sales of the osteoporosis pill Fosamax 
offsetting the loss of overseas sales of its No. 1 seller, the 
anticholesterol drug Zocor, due to expiration of foreign patents. 
Zocor loses U.S. patent protection in 2006 and is also up against 
stiff competition from two drugs, Lipitor and Crestor, often 
viewed as more powerful. 

chart MRK daily:



Sector winners today were Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index ($CYC.X) 
+ 0.43% and the Software index ($GSO.X) +0.29%, although there is 
an ominous head and shoulders forming on the GSO. 

chart GSO index daily:



Sector losers were the Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) -3.68%, Airline 
Index (XAL.X) -2.78% and the Home Builders -1.92%.

Moving onto market internals we saw a mixed bag today with 
declining issues outnumbering advancers by a 17 to 15 margin on 
the NYSE and by a 20 to 11 score on the Nasdaq exchange. The 
volume of stocks moving lower was 782 million shares on the Big 
Board and 1,237 million shares on the Nasdaq, vs. higher volume 
of 608 million shares and 943 million shares, respectively. New 
highs to new lows painted a much healthier picture with NYSE new 
highs clocking in at 472 to new lows of 8 and on the NAZ new 
highs were 299 to 10 new lows.

The SEC has tentatively approved new rules for mutual-fund trades 
that would require all buy or sell mutual funds orders to be 
received at the company by 4:00ET PM in hopes this firm 4:00 
closing will eliminate the potential for illegal late-trading. 
 SEC chairman, William Donaldson says these new rules "will go a 
long way toward restoring investor confidence in these important 
investment vehicles."

On the global front, China has surpassed Japan as the No. 2 
petroleum user after the U.S. China oil imports for the first 10 
months of 2003 are up 30% from the year-earlier period and are 
expected to double to some four million barrels a day by 2010. 
Some say China, which doesn't have large oil fields, might start 
competing with the U.S. for influence in the Middle East and 
trade weapons technology to terrorist states. On the other hand 
others think China will realize it has a vital interest in 
keeping the region stable.

On the economic front, the ISM index of nonmanufacturing business 
fell to 60.1 in November from 64.7 in October, indicating that 
the service sector is still growing, but at a slower pace than it 
has been. This was the eighth consecutive month of growth in the 
sector; any number above 50 indicates growth.

Meanwhile, U.S. workers were much more productive in the third 
quarter than previously thought, for nonfarm business 
productivity, a measure of the amount an employee produces per 
hour, grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 9.4%, the 
strongest showing since the second quarter of 1983. On a year-
over-year basis, the increase of 5% was the fastest rate in 53 
years.

The dollar failed to get a lift from upwardly revised US 
productivity number and remained soft after the release of 
weaker-than-expected service sector data. It weakened against 
most of other currencies hitting fresh lows against the euro for 
the fourth consecutive session.

The 10-year Treasury note stood at 98 24/32, down 6/32 to yield 
4.41%. The 30-year bond fell 12/32 to 102 27/32, yielding 5.18%. 
The five-year note was down 3/32 to 99 23/32, yielding 3.43%, 
while the three-year note was off 2/32 to 100 2/32, yielding 
2.60%. The two-year note was down 1/32 to 99 19/32 to yield 
2.08%.

The only economic report out tomorrow is the weekly 8:30 release 
of initial claims where the market is looking for a slight 
increase to 354K from a prior of 351K.




=================
  Trading Ideas
=================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make 
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not 
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor 
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has 
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy 
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. 
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.  
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------

PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd          19.25    +1.38
TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             83.51    +0.72
MRK     Merck & Co                 43.63    +1.13
BHP     BHP Ltd                    17.23    +0.51
ONE     Bank One Corp              45.00    +0.80


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

BBI     Blockbuster Inc            17.96    +1.02
PWER    Power-One Inc               9.55    +1.22
AWIN    Arch Woreless Inc          18.93    +1.28


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

DB      Deutsche Bank Ag           75.80    +3.90
GM      General Motors Corp        45.54    +2.26
GD      General Dynamics Corp      83.45    +2.50
AKZOY   AKZO Nobel Nv (ADR)        36.39    +1.19


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

IACI    Interactivecorp            30.96    -1.10
KSS     Kohl's Corp                45.29    -1.38
BBY     Best Buy Co Inc            57.42    -1.10
CVS     CVS Corp                   34.90    -1.08
ERTS    Electronic Arts Inc        42.27    -1.63
SNDK    Sandisk Corp               71.90    -6.31

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AMZN    Amazon.com Inc             51.51    -2.42
STI     Suntrust Banks Inc         70.63    -0.14
PNC     PNC Financial Svcs Grp     53.72    -0.59
CVS     CVS Corp                   34.90    -1.08
XL      XL Capital Ltd             73.61    -2.24





=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 12-03-2003
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright ) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:     SLAB
  Bullish Play Updates:  NXTL, ZBRA

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bearish Plays:     TSG
  Bullish Play Updates:  FLIR, JCP

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  JNPR, RAD, SIRI
  Bearish Play Updates:  FCEL


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Silicon Labs. - SLAB - close: 46.55 change: -1.63 stop: 50.00

Company Description:
Silicon Laboratories designs, manufactures and markets 
proprietary high-performance mixed-signal integrated circuits 
(ICs) for the wireless, wireline and optical communications 
industries.  The company initially focused its efforts on 
developing ICs for the personal computer modem market and is now 
applying its mixed-signal and communications expertise to the 
development of ICs for other high growth communications devices, 
such as wireless telephones and optical network applications.

Why we like it:
There's no escaping the fact that the bullish tone in the markets 
really hasn't begun to crack.  So if we're going to play the 
downside, we need to zero in on pockets of relative weakness.  
The Semiconductor index (SOX.X) has definitely been a source of 
relative strength, leading the NASDAQ to graze the 2000 level on 
Wednesday before the late-day reversal.  The SOX stretched up to 
the $535 resistance level again before being sent sharply lower 
in the final two hours, losing 1.44% on the day.  This could be 
the beginning of a significant rollover in the SOX, but we need 
to pick on a relatively weak stock in the sector until there are 
more concrete signs of weakness.  SLAB fits that bill, having 
been in a persistent downtrend since late October.  The stock 
seemed to find support near the $45 level in late November and 
staged a decent rebound.  But the buyers ran out of gas just 
below $50 and SLAB rolled over just under the 20-dma (now at 
$49.51.  

The PnF chart went bearish in early November and the current 
bearish price target is $39, giving the stock room to fall.  But 
in order to really get moving to the downside, the bears are 
first going to have to overcome support near $45.75, which is 
both the site of the ascending trendline from the 9/30 and 11/20 
lows, as well as the 100-dma ($45.80).  Additional support will 
be found at $45, which is the location of the PnF bullish support 
line.  Once SLAB breaks these measures of support, it could be a 
swift trip down the charts, with next significant support coming 
in at $40 and then $38.  There should now be strong resistance in 
the $47.50-48.50 area, so aggressive entries can be taken on a 
failed bounce below that zone.  More conservative traders will 
need to wait for a break of the trendline or even a drop under 
$45 support before playing.  We'll target a drop into the $39-40 
area as our optimum exit point, while using an initial stop at 
$50, just over the top of last week's failed rally.

Annotated Chart of SLAB:


Picked on December 3rd at   $46.55
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              1/19/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    1.24 mln




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Nextel Comms - NXTL - close: 25.80 change: +0.25 stop: 24.00

Tracing out a nearly perfect doji candlestick on Wednesday, NXTL 
is clearly at an inflection point.  While still holding well 
above its recent breakout over the $24.60 level, with daily 
Stochastics starting to roll over, it looks like it may be due 
for a bit of profit taking and consolidation.  An orderly 
pullback into the $24.50-25.00 area should provide a solid entry 
on the rebound, with additional support coming from the 10-dma at 
$24.93.  As we've been noting lately, NXTL has been due for some 
weakness or at least some consolidation, as the stock has been 
banging up against both the top of its rising channel and the 
upper Bollinger band.  That should keep us focused on new entries 
on pullbacks to support.  It won't be a fast-moving play, but 
NXTL still looks capable of moving up towards our $30 target.  
Maintain stops at $24, which is just under the 20-dma ($24.12).

Picked on November 26th at  $25.27
Change since picked          +0.53
Earnings Date              1/15/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    17.0 mln




---

Zebra Tech - ZBRA - close: 62.78 change: -0.22  stop: 59.98

Last Friday, ZBRA produced a small-bodied candle at the top of 
the current rise, with that type of candle sometimes being a 
reversal signal.  We were glad when this week's trading pattern 
negated that reversal signal.  ZBRA consolidated rather than 
reversed.  Wednesday's doji, almost a gravestone doji, sometimes 
also serves as a reversal signal.  Since this signal came during 
consolidation rather than at the top of a rise, it probably holds 
less significance.  However, ZBRA's close slightly below the 
recently established consolidation zone may signal that ZBRA 
needs to drop back toward the rising 10-dma to find stronger 
support.
 
MACD flattens but has not yet produced a bearish cross.  RSI held 
up most of the day, but dipped lower near the close.  Stochastics 
turned down, too, but did not roll completely out of territory 
indicating overbought conditions.  A study of ZBRA's daily chart 
shows that prices sometimes consolidate sideways a few days 
before dropping down and re-establishing support at the 30-dma.  
ZBRA's climb this time has been so rapid that it's left the 30-
dma behind at $59.72, but that average climbs rapidly toward the 
current price.  Between ZBRA's current price and that 30-dma, we 
note horizontal support near $60.20, just below the rising 21-
dma.  Conservative traders might set their stops just below that 
average.

We're cautious about new entries this close to our target, 
especially with Wednesday's late-day plunge in the markets, but 
aggressive traders could consider an entry on a dip to and bounce 
from the 21-dma.  Verify first that volume contracts on the dip 
and expands on the bounce before considering such an entry.  

Annotated Chart for ZBRA:


Picked on Nov 19 at  60.20
Change since picked: +2.58
Earnings Date:    10/23/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  618 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


Sabre Hldgs - TSG - close: 19.92  change: -0.28  stop: 21.60

Company Description:
Sabre Holdings Corporation (NYSE:TSG) is a world leader in travel 
commerce, retailing travel products and providing distribution 
and technology solutions for the travel industry.

Why We Like It:
Wednesday, Sabre Holdings announced that its chairman and CEO 
will leave to replace Betsy Bernard as president of AT&T.  Sam 
Gilliland, CEO of Travelocity, owned by Sabre, will replace 
Hannigan as president and CEO of Sabre.  Although S&P commented 
that the changeover would  not affect its rating and outlook on 
the company, Sabre's investors weren't thrilled with the news. 
They sent Sabre below $20.00 and its October intraday low of 
$19.90.  The decline came on stronger-than-average volume.  

Sabre's weakness actually began showing up earlier, in mid 
October when it produced a triple bottom breakdown on the P&F 
chart with a currently predicted downside target of $17.00.  That 
downside target has not yet been completed because Sabre has not 
yet reversed into an X column.  After producing that signal, 
Sabre bounced, but soon fell back beneath its 200-dma as well as 
beneath a host of other gathered moving averages.  The $21.20 
level shows up as important on the weekly chart, so Sabre's 
downturn from that level now seems significant.  

Play participants should expect some volatility as Sabre 
approaches $18.78, the top of a gap from April.  A first bounce 
should probably be expected as Sabre plumbs that gap, down to 
$18.12.  We'll be following Sabre's progress toward that gap with 
lowered stops, but we see $15.25 as our ultimate downside target. 

Annotated Chart for TSG:


Picked on Dec 03 at  19.92
Change since picked: -0.00
Earnings Date:    10/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  727 thousand





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


FLIR Systems - FLIR - close: 35.30 change: -0.03 stop: 33.00

Just like clockwork, shares of FLIR once again followed 
yesterday's breakout to new highs with a day of consolidation.  
Printing a near perfect doji, the stock pulled back from its 
intraday highs to end with a tiny fractional loss.  So long as 
the pattern of higher lows and higher highs remains intact, FLIR 
looks fully capable of reaching our $38 target.  Based on the 
recent trading pattern, entries should be taken on pullbacks near 
support in the $34.00-34.50 area, supported by the steadily 
rising 10-dma ($34.28).  Since FLIR follows each breakout with a 
mild pullback/consolidation, entering on breakouts is not an 
advisable strategy.  Maintain stops at $33, just below the rising 
20-dma ($33.06).

Picked on November 23rd at  $33.90
Change since picked          +1.40
Earnings Date              1/21/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       422 K





---


J.C. Penney Co. - JCP - close: 25.36  change: +0.08  stop: 23.95

Although Monday's reports showed that the post-Thanksgiving 
shopping was not as strong as previously expected, JCP added to 
recent gains on Monday.  Since then, it stalled and then headed 
down in Wednesday's trading, not participating in the early 
market gains.  By the end of the day, JCP had regained its 
opening level, producing a doji, the classic sign of indecision.  

Even during that stall, JCP maintained recently established 
support at $25.00. The 10-dma now courses up just beneath that 
level, currently at $24.74, having made a bullish cross of the 
30-dma late last week.  Since mid-summer, such bullish crosses 
have usually signaled significant gains ahead, although JCP does 
sometimes cycle down to test the 30-dma again before resuming its 
climb.  That 30-dma now crosses at $24.15.  

We do note that the important 30-dma has now flattened, perhaps 
signaling a loss in momentum.  Oscillator evidence is mixed, with 
MACD still generally slanting up, but with RSI and stochastics 
flattening, one just below the level indicating overbought 
conditions and one just above.  Due to JCP's pattern over the 
previous months, a stop near the 30-dma seems most logical, but 
some traders might find it more appropriate to set their stops at 
breakeven now that this play is profitable.  

With the expected strong holiday sales perhaps not materializing 
and with our target so near, we would not suggest new entries 
from this level and would be careful about pullback-and-bounce 
entries, too.  The RLX, the S&P Retail Index, violated its 30-dma 
on Wednesday and now heads down to test its 50-dma.  If a 
pullback-and-bounce on JCP should concur with an RLX bounce from 
its 50-dma, and if JCP's volume should expand on the bounce, such 
entries could be considered by aggressive traders.

Annotated Chart for JCP:


Picked on Nov 21 at  24.45
Change since picked: +0.91
Earnings Date:    11/11/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  2.5 million




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 17.97 change: -0.41 stop: 17.20

If there was any doubt as to the technical significance of the 
channel JNPR has been trading in, it should have been removed on 
Monday.  The recent rebound ran into stiff resistance right at 
the midline of that channel (then at $19.10) and has been 
dropping sharply over the past couple days.  It certainly appears 
that there will be another test of dual support at the bottom of 
the channel ($17.40) and 50-dma ($17.49).  If there's still life 
in this bullish trend, then JNPR ought to see another strong 
rebound that finally propels it through the $19 level, setting up 
a rally towards the top of the channel, now at $21.15.  On the 
other hand, if JNPR fails to rebound at support, we ought to have 
a crisp exit at our $17.20 stop, which is below the 50-dma, 
bottom of the channel and the low from the late-November dip.  A 
renewed rebound from above the 50-dma can be used for fresh 
entries, but conservative traders will want to make sure the 
rebound comes on stronger volume than we've been seeing over the 
past week.

Picked on November 19th at  $17.69
Change since picked          +0.28
Earnings Date              1/08/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    10.2 mln




---


Rite Aid - RAD - close: 6.29   change: -0.02  stop: 5.75

Most drugstore company stocks fell in Wednesday's trading along 
with the RLX, the S&P Retail Index, but RAD held up better than 
competitors WAG and CVS.  RAD also saw an upgrade to a buy rating 
from Jefferies and Company, perhaps resulting in that stronger 
relative performance.  

RAD's chart also shows that the stock jumped above the recent 
resistance in this week's trading.  (Note:  We've used a 720-
minute chart for our commentary because a daily candle was 
missing on the daily chart.)  Since that time, RAD has 
consolidated above that broken resistance, establishing that 
resistance as new support.  MACD curves up gently, but other 
oscillator evidence proved mixed, as RSI hooked down, and the 
fast stochastics line turned down toward the other line.  Moving 
averages slant up strongly, with several now above $6.00.

The performance of other retailers concerns us, but as long as 
MACD continues to curve up, new positions might be added if RAD 
dips to and then bounces from that recently broken resistance, 
marked on the chart.  Forego this new entry if dips are 
accompanied by larger-than-average volume.

Annotated Chart for RAD:


Picked on Nov 05 at   5.95
Change since picked: +0.34
Earnings Date:    09/25/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.5 million




---

Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 2.11 chng: -0.07 stop: 1.95

After Monday's sharp upward gawp, we had the distinct feeling 
that SIRI was going to need to come back to fill in that gap and 
confirm support at the top of the bullish flag pattern.  Sure 
enough, today's sharp pullback did just that, exactly filling in 
Monday's gap and coming within a couple pennies of touching both 
the top of the bull flag, which is right on top of the 10-dma 
($2.05).  The question we must ask is whether this is a pullback 
to confirm support or if the breakout on Monday was a bull trap.  
We'll let price action be our guide in that debate and as long as 
support holds at or above $2.00, then buying the dip looks like a 
winning strategy.  We have the 10-dma, the top of the flag and 
$2.00 historical resistance-turned support all working in our 
favor.  Aggressive traders can enter on a successful rebound from 
support, while those with a more conservative approach will need 
to wait for a rally above $2.25 (taking out today's intraday 
high) before playing.  Maintain stops at $1.95.

Picked on November 30th at   $2.08
Change since picked          +0.03
Earnings Date              1/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    49.8 mln






  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


FuelCell Energy - FCEL - close: 13.55 change: +0.07  stop: 14.85

Wednesday, FCEL, Yale, and Connecticut Clean Energy Fund 
dedicated a fuel cell power plant near Yale University's Peabody 
Museum.  About one-fourth of the building's electricity needs 
will be met by the power plant. Connecticut claims that it's a 
leader in fuel cell technology.

Although FCEL closed higher, the day's candle was a gravestone 
doji that moved down from resistance.  FCEL has been testing that 
resistance just above $14.00 for a week.  FCEL managed a close 
just above its 10-dma, but otherwise showed no strength.  Entries 
at the current level still look possible, but watch RSI, which 
turned up last week and has not yet turned down again.  

Annotated Chart for FCEL:


Picked on Nov 28 at  13.46
Change since picked: +0.09
Earnings Date:    12/16/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  753 thousand





=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives