Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 12/07/2003

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 12-07-2003
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Foundation Cracking?
Play-of-the-Day:  Marathon Runner
Market Sentiment: Considerable Period


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 12-05        WE 11-28        WE 11-23        WE 11-14 
DOW     9862.68 + 80.22 9782.46 +153.93 9628.53 -140.15 - 41.11 
Nasdaq  1937.82 - 22.44 1960.26 + 66.38 1893.88 - 36.38 - 40.48 
S&P-100  523.51 +  2.77  520.74 +  8.97  511.77 -  7.24 -  1.69 
S&P-500 1061.50 +  3.30 1058.20 + 22.92 1035.28 - 15.07 -  2.86 
W5000  10352.60 +  0.38 10352.2 +253.34 10098.8 -145.78 - 45.10 
RUT      539.01 -  7.50  546.51 + 20.58  525.93 -  7.03 - 10.00 
TRAN    2910.58 - 10.65 2921.23 + 75.91 2845.32 - 82.32 - 51.65 
VIX       17.09 +  0.79   16.30 -  2.68   18.98 +  2.04 +  0.01 
VXO       17.34 +  0.63   16.71 -  3.18   19.89 +  2.26 +  0.07 
VXN       27.05 +  1.44   25.61 -  3.47   29.08 +  2.92 +  0.96 
TRIN       1.86            1.04            1.04            1.35 
Put/Call   0.84            0.69            0.80            0.69 
WE = week ending
================================================================= 

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Foundation Cracking?
by Jim Brown

Signs of economic weakness reappear and sellers edged out 
buyers by slightly more than 2:1. However, while the markets
took profits they still held their ground. Bonds soared as 
the fear of the Fed eased and yields hit new lows for the 
month. Is there a change in the wind?

Dow Chart


Dow Chart - Short Term


Nasdaq Chart



The big number out on Friday was of course the Jobs report
and traders were expecting a big surprise. Unfortunately the
surprise they got was not the one they expected. The official
consensus was for an increase of +140,000 jobs and the whisper
number was as high as +250,000. On CNBC Thursday night Kudlow
was positively giddy about the potential for a 250K number
and pressing all his guests to agree with him. This was only
the culmination of a week of bullish comments by analysts
and not an isolated incident. This set traders up for a
disappointment as I discussed on Thursday night. That is
exactly what they got. The actual number was for a gain of
only +57,000 jobs. While it was still a gain and the fourth
month of gains the market did not like it. How quickly traders
can become spoiled when several consecutive reports show
improvement. Even the upward revision from 126,000 to 137,000
for October failed to impress when the number for this month
was only about 1/3 of the official estimates. It also did 
not help that September was revised down from 125,000 to 
only 99,000, a drop of -26,000 jobs. If you don't like this
months numbers stick around they may change several times
over the next three months. 

Despite the minor gain in jobs the actual number of unemployed
dropped by -105,000 to 8.674 million. This dropped the rate
of unemployment to 5.9% and an eight month low. How can this
be? First the unemployment rate is actually derived from a
different survey that is considered less accurate than the
payroll survey. Encouraging? Also, it is a known fact that
many workers are giving up on the job hunt when the benefits
expire. Two income families decide to make it on one and 
the unemployed partner stays home to live on less or retire
early. The unemployment rate did not go down because many
people suddenly found jobs. 

The analysts were more disappointed about the +57K number
because they thought with the ISM, GDP, Jobless Claims and
the other stellar economic reports of late that they had a
real chance to actually have a blowout. It takes +150,000
jobs per month just to breakeven with additions to the
workforce. Workers coming out of school, immigrants and
decisions by single income families to become dual income
adds 150,000 people to the available workforce each month.
We have been running at a negative job rate so long, several
years in fact, that analysts felt all the stars had lined
up in our favor to break the trend. When it weakened instead
they immediately started grabbing for the silver lining. 

Temporary employment was up, the work week was longer, the
productivity was exploding and so on. Yes, but most sectors
showed decreases in jobs for the month with the exception
of construction payrolls. Even financial services lost jobs
as the mortgage refi industry implodes. Manufacturing jobs
fell -17,000 for the month and wage growth only rose by 
one cent per hour. It has been decelerating for a year and
could go negative soon. 

Not all the news was bad. This was the fourth consecutive 
month that jobs were created. While the gain in jobs was
modest it is exactly what had been expected for the last
year, slow jobs growth until the recovery had some history
behind it. The only history we have is a blowout 3Q that
was entirely due to the tax rebates and tax cuts. That put
cash in consumers hands and they spent it. Once that cash
was spent Oct and Nov have been retail wastelands. That
does not mean the recovery stopped. It just means than
the injection of speed we had in the 3Q has worn off and
we are right back in the slow growth we have seen all year.

This slow growth mode as evidenced from the jobs has one
really strong benefit. The Fed is now likely on hold until
the 1Q of 2005. Yes, 2005. The Fed funds futures were looking
for a 50% chance of a 25 point rate hike in April before
today. After today that chance has dropped to only 25%. 
With retail in the tank and airlines seeing a drop in 
bookings the Fed is not going to want to trip up the 
struggling recovery with a preemptive rate hike. The strong
drop in jobs from the prior month actually gave the Fed a
free pass for the 1Q. Since the economy is normally slow
over the 2Q they should not be pressed to hike rates then
either. 2004 is also an election year and hell would freeze
over before they hike in the 3Q just before the election.
That political gift to the democrats simply will not happen
in a republican administration. That makes December the
first free meeting and the Fed rarely hikes rates in 
December to spoil holiday sentiment. What this does mean 
is we can guarantee a rate hike, probably several, in the
1Q of 2005. I have said before that should Bush be 
reelected he will probably be riding the crest of the 
current liquidity wave and the results of the $165 billion
in tax cuts/rebates in 1Q 2004. That wave will give the 
recovery legs that will race into the election but in 2005
he will cut those legs out from under the economy with 
large tax hike. He has to raise taxes once the economy is
firing on all cylinders. Otherwise the country will be 
broke by 2008. Literally. Looks like I got ahead of myself
but the main point is the Fed is likely on hold through 
2004 with the only risk a minor hike in April. Want proof?
Look at the drop in yields on the Ten Year note on Friday.
It was the biggest one-day drop since Jan-2002.

Ten Year Note Yield Chart


Other good news included a jump in the Factory Orders by 
+2.2% in October, which was slightly better than consensus. 
The markets actually dismissed this news as well because 
they had expected more with the whisper number in the +3%
range. Blowout numbers like the PMI last week have spoiled
them to thinking that all future numbers will do the same
and while the numbers today were good they were just not
good enough for analysts. This was also an October number
and yesterday's news.

The markets were already looking weak on the Intel and Jet
Blue news and the Jobs Report sealed the deal. They gapped
down at the open but surprisingly enough not significantly.
The Dow hit -40 and held at 9880 support. The Nasdaq took
it harder due to Intel and gapped down -25 but also held.
They held those levels despite negative internals until
after 1:PM but the fear of darkness finally took hold with
a major sell program supplying the push over the cliff. It
was a short drop and the Dow came to rest on strong support
at 9850, Nasdaq 1940. They spent the last hour fighting 
off all sellers but were only able to hold their ground
and not gain any. 

The major problem was the Intel news. The chip sector had
been at 52-week highs on Wednesday with the SOX at 535 
but the Intel news coupled with the Nasdaq touch of 2000 
combined to induce some serious profit taking. The SOX 
closed at 499 for a -6.5% drop in three days. This is very 
strong support and this support helped hold the Nasdaq at 
1940. 

SOX Chart


Also helping push the indexes lower were the retailers. Sears
for instance has dropped nearly -$7 in three days (-12%) and
there appears to be no letup in sight. FD joined the party
with a -5.4% drop. The problem here is the weak retail sales
and lack of any positive guidance for December. With more
than 50% of chains missing estimates for November and many
expressing concerns about December there are no bargain 
shoppers picking up these blue light stock specials. 

The Jet Blue warning rippled across the airline sector with
all the minor carriers looking for a flat spot to land. JBLU
lost -$5.52 (-17.59%) and that was on top of a -$6 slide in
the prior three days. LUV was also cut on Thursday and they
dropped another -6% to $15.50 from their $18.50 high earlier
in the week. The majors dropped less but the entire sector
was under pressure. The XAL broke support at 60 and appears
headed lower. This should pressure the Transportation Index
and that will continue to drag on the Dow. 

Airline Index Chart



The Russell-2000 remained under pressure with another drop
of -5.14 and a close at 539. This was the fourth consecutive
day of declines but there is still room to fall. Real support
is in the 520-526 range and I would not be surprised to see
this tested next week. Funds are selling but not yet in 
volume.

Russell 2000 Chart



The fund scandal continues to weigh on the markets but the
flight out of the Putman funds may have slowed. Putman said
they had $32 billion in net outflows in November. The Strong
funds had -$2 billion in outflows in November as the founder
put the company up for sale. Despite these problems AMG
Data said that over the last three months there was a net
inflow to all equity funds of +$57 billion. The three-month
period nearly equaled the record high in the 1Q of 2000 and
the market top. Makes you wonder what is in store for us in
the near future if the bullish money flow is back to bubble 
levels. 

About the only thing investors did not have to worry about
on Friday was terrorists. The news services were nearly
silent about weekend warnings and the talking heads were
more concerned about the Jobs report than the terror reports.
There were more bombings, one very serious, but the markets
appeared to ignore them. 

Next week should be critical for the markets. We start a
new round of economic reports with the Kansas City Fed Survey
on Monday, FOMC Meeting and Richmond Fed Survey on Tuesday
and PPI and Sentiment on Friday. There is also a sprinkling
of other filler reports throughout the week. The focus will
be the FOMC meeting although the outcome is assumed to be
neutral. They will be looking for the deletion of the
"considerable period" comment although it has already been
discounted away. Should it stay there will be a strong 
relief rally as that would officially put the Fed on hold
for the foreseeable future. If it disappears I think the
markets will blip for a few minutes and then go back to 
business as usual. 

More important than the FOMC meeting is the critical
support levels for last week. The Dow closed right above
9850 which is very critical support. This has been support
all week and a failure of that level should see an immediate
drop to 9750 with a risk to 9600-9650. This should not be
a surprise to anyone who has been reading my recent articles.
The 50 DMA is 9711 and that uptrend support has held since
March. It will not hold forever but until it fails 
convincingly traders will continue to buy the dip at 
that level. 

The Nasdaq also closed at support for the week at 1940 and
the 50 DMA at 1920 should provide a pause if 1940 fails. 
Worst case support for next week should be 1880-1890. This
would be a major risk to the uptrend and a break below 1880
could set off a cascade sales event. I do not expect it
next week. 

What I expect is an opening bounce on Monday and then more
weakness before the week is out. I think the Dow will see
9700-9750 and then firm up as the dip buyers hit that 
test of the 50 DMA. In addition to the FOMC meeting and
the various economic reports we should see some more
earnings warnings so there will be no shortage of news
to move the markets. 

The main thing investors should remember about the next
three weeks is that they are NOT critical. We may see a
Santa rally begin around the 15th or we may not. We could
attempt a retest of 10,000 again or 9500. The odds are
very good that we will go nowhere. There is a lot of
bullish sentiment and the closer we get to the holidays
the stronger it will get. There is also a lot of overhead
supply so breaking through to new highs would be tough. 
This should mean we will remain range bound between now 
and year end. 

What "investors" should focus on is the expected drop in
January. We will devote more commentary to that as we get
closer. Over the last six years January has seen a drop
from the highs of between -550 and -1050 points. This is
due to hedge funds and portfolio managers waiting to take
profits until the new year to push the tax consequences
farther into the future. This is a recent trend and one
that has accelerated as the consecutive string gets longer.
Experienced investors have been able to play these trends
profitably. We have devised our current year-end renewal 
special to allow readers to profit from this. Be sure
to read about it below this commentary. 

For next week I would suggest only aggressive traders 
need apply. It is likely to be choppy and news driven.
For conservative traders I would watch the Dow 50 DMA 
and use that as your entry point for any potential 
Santa Rally. That rally when it occurs tends to begin
around the 15th and run into the end of the year. Be
prepared for it but don't count on it. The huge profits
by fund managers are just waiting to be harvested and 
the odds are good some funds will begin lightening the
load soon and using any Santa rally to offset their sales.
This is a good period to be conservative and get ready
for 2004. If you have an IRA I would use the holidays 
to decide what stocks you want to buy on the January
dip. I would use the rest of December to decide what
stocks you want to sell before that dip begins. Plan
your trades wisely and trade your plan.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown



=========================
Play-of-the-Day (bullish)
=========================

Marathon Oil Corp - MRO - close: 30.22  change: +0.06  stop: 28.75

Company Description:
Marathon Oil Corporation is an energy company engaged in the 
worldwide exploration, production and transportation of crude oil 
and natural gas. Through its 62 percent ownership of Marathon 
Ashland Petroleum LLC, the company also refines, markets and 
transports petroleum products in the United States. (Source:  
Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
On October 10, MRO created a spread triple top breakout buy 
signal on the P&F chart, with a preliminary price target of 
$54.00. That was enough to draw our interest, but MRO also broke 
above a descending trendline that had been in place since early 
1998.  That really caught our interest, but breakout plays have 
not been particularly successful lately.  Since early October, 
however, MRO has been consolidating, building a base above that 
broken trendline.  Late in November, as President Bush's energy 
bill was blocked, MRO declined with other energy stocks, but even 
that setback did not take MRO below the support it had been 
establishing just below $29.00.  About a week ago, MRO climbed 
back above its 30-dma and began building a slightly higher base 
above $29.50.  

Now that it's done all this careful prep work, it looks ready to 
break to the upside.  MRO closed the week above $30.00.  The XOI, 
the Oil Index, has already broken above its October high, 
suggesting that MRO, one of its component stocks, might also 
break above its October high.

We do note the tall upper shadows on recent days, however.  
Although we would ordinarily suggest triggering this play on a 
move above October's $30.55 high, those tall upper shadows 
suggest that pullback entries might be better, buying on intraday 
dips to and bounces from the 10-dma. Although the $54.00 
preliminary target on the P&F chart suggests that a $35.00 target 
would be a modest and logical target, we do note that the $33.75 
level has been a swing top on many MRO advances on a monthly 
chart, so we expect considerable volatility as that level is 
approached.  We suggest that conservative traders set an 
automatic profit stop at $33.75, our first target.  

Analysts disagree about MRO's prospects, with Goldman Sachs 
reiterating its underperform rating in late October while other 
firms have proposed buy or hold ratings for the company's stock.  
Late Thursday, MRO issued a press release dissociating itself 
with the troubled Russian company Yukos Oil Co.  MRO said that 
although MRO had once been part of a joint venture with Yukos to 
explore opportunities outside Russia, that joint venture had been 
dissolved late last year when Yukos decided to concentrate on 
opportunities within Russia.  MRO continues discussions with 
Russia's state-owned Rosneft, however, with the company 
maintaining an interest in pursuing opportunities inside Russia 
as well as outside Russia.  In another release this week, the 
company said that the U.S. government had allowed it to take 
steps to extend its license agreements with Libya, with those 
licenses currently set to expire in 2005.  The company also 
introduced its new CFO.

Annotated Chart for MRO:


Picked on Dec 05 at  30.22
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    01/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.2 million





================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================


Considerable Period
- J. Brown

Last week was an intriguing start to December.  The headlines 
produced a roller coaster effect.  The strong ISM numbers on 
Monday sent us soaring higher as most coasters do at the 
beginning of the ride before the dips begin.  Profit taking, a 
negative investor reaction to Intel's mid-quarter conference 
call, a warning from JetBlue and a disappointing employment 
number left the NASDAQ lower on a week it touched 2000.

The big news on Friday was of course the jobs report.  Estimates 
had been for a gain of 140,000.  October's report had been 
+126,000 and economists were excited to see month over month 
gains.  Unfortunately, the November report was a disappointment 
with just 57,000 jobs gained.  The good news was an upward 
revision to 137,000 for the October report but this was just old 
news by now, especially given the "whisper" number of +250,000 
jobs in November.  

Overall unemployment dropped to 5.9% reaching an eight-month low 
but as many analysts pointed out this is not due to job growth.  
The most probable theory is drop off in the reportable figures.  
Thousands of workers who couldn't find a job have run out of 
unemployment benefits and could no longer be counted.  

The major focus next week will be the Federal Reserve meeting on 
Tuesday.  The verdict on interest rates should be out at 2:15 PM 
ET on Tuesday afternoon.  There has been much ado made about the 
term "considerable period" in the FOMC's previous statements 
regarding how long they plan to keep rates low.  Since no one 
expects them to raise rates the real focus is on what they have 
to say regarding the current state of the economy and when they 
might lift rates in the future.  In this weekend's wrap Jim gives 
a good argument on why we may not see a rate hike until the first 
quarter of 2005.  Whether or not the words "considerable period" 
are in this Tuesday's comments it may be replaced by a new phrase 
suggesting that the Fed is in no rush to raise rates.  

As we have suggested in the past the market's gains are being 
tempered by investors taking profits near the highs.  Most money 
managers are looking at their first profitable year since 1999.  
There is not a lot of desire to chase stocks higher when we're so 
close to the year-end.  However, I will note that commercial 
traders have suddenly become bullish in the e-minis future 
contracts.  Commercial traders, normally thought of as the "smart 
money", have reversed from being net short to net long.  This can 
be viewed as a bullish sentiment indicator.  

I would not be surprised to see the markets dip again this week 
but there are a large number of stocks that have pulled right 
back to support.  It's going to be another tug-of-war for 
direction.  Keep an eye on retail stocks.  They took a beating 
this last week and the massive snowstorm on the east coast, 
dumping 12 to 20 inches of snow this weekend, is not going to 
help their holiday sales.  The other side of that coin should be 
a strong surge in online shopping.  

Good luck.  We only have 18 shopping days left to Christmas day.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High:  9942
52-week Low :  7197
Current     :  9862

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 9812
 50-dma: 9711
200-dma: 9027

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1074
52-week Low :  768
Current     : 1061

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1059
 50-dma: 1043
200-dma:  971

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1453
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1406

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1418
 50-dma: 1400
200-dma: 1239


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Insert broken record commentary here...the "fear" indices 
continue to show very little concern by investors as they trade 
near multi-year or all-time lows.  Yet we have seen a slight 
up tick in the trend, but we've seen before.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.09 +0.79
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 17.34 +0.78
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 27.05 +0.24


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.54        585,094       491,146
Equity Only    0.68        494,881       335,345
OEX            1.04         24,450        25,318
QQQ            7.06         13,620        96,175


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.8    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    74.0    + 0     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       81.8    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       80.0    + 0     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.17
10-dma: 1.06
21-dma: 1.16
55-dma: 1.13


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1161      1044
Decliners    1628      2012

New Highs     213       106
New Lows       10        12

Up Volume    435M      320M
Down Vol.    999M     1299M

Total Vol.  1468M     1643M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 12/02/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Long and short interest continues to flat line from the
commercial traders.  Everyone seems to be waiting for the year
to end before changing their bets.  Small traders have grown
slightly more optimistic.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
11/04/03      391,079   415,136   (24,057)   (3.0%)
11/11/03      389,965   415,259   (25,294)   (3.1%)
11/18/03      393,893   414,442   (20,549)   (2.5%)
12/02/03      394,531   414,223   (19,692)   (2.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03
 
Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/04/03      137,829    78,206    59,623    27.6%
11/11/03      136,072    74,249    61,823    29.4%
11/18/03      147,842    80,047    67,795    29.7%
12/02/03      154,788    85,776    69,012    28.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Wow!  We're actually seeing some action here in the e-minis.
Commercial traders have reversed from being net short to
net long.  This is bullish news.  Small traders have added
strongly to both their long and short positions and remain
bullish as well.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
11/04/03      242,409   270,785    (28,376)  ( 5.5%)
11/11/03      249,864   258,503    ( 8,639)  ( 1.7%)
11/18/03      249,286   264,083    (14,797)  ( 2.9%)
12/02/03      283,199   268,833     14,366     2.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/04/03      135,525    63,006    72,519    36.5%
11/11/03       94,649    51,815    42,834    29.2%
11/18/03       95,119    61,975    33,144    21.1%
12/02/03      119,555    77,609    41,946    21.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Much like the large S&P contracts above, commercial traders
have fallen asleep.  There is very little change in positions.
Meanwhile, small traders have reduced positions on both
sides of the equation.  


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
11/04/03       34,159     48,293   (14,134) (17.1%)
11/11/03       35,889     49,201   (13,312) (15.6%)
11/18/03       35,608     49,689   (14,081) (16.5%)
12/02/03       35,569     48,552   (12,983) (15.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
11/04/03       24,132     9,703    14,429    42.6%
11/11/03       26,212    10,730    15,482    41.9%
11/18/03       32,034    10,356    21,678    51.3%
12/02/03       21,594     9,429    12,165    39.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The same story appears to hold true for DJ futures.  The
overall trend is flat with commercials slightly bullish
and small traders generally bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/04/03       21,756    11,903    9,853      29.3%
11/11/03       20,209    11,660    8,549      26.8%
11/18/03       20,746    11,080    9,666      30.4%
12/02/03       21,128    12,379    8,749      26.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
11/04/03        5,099     9,160   (4,061)   (28.5%)
11/11/03        6,105     8,201   (2,096)   (14.7%)
11/18/03        5,655     8,607   (2,952)   (20.7%)
12/02/03        6,667     9,302   (2,635)   (16.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03



-----------------------------------------------------------------



=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 12-07-2003
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:     UTEK
  Bullish Play Updates:  NXTL, ZBRA 
  Bearish Play Updates:  SLAB

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     MRO
  Bullish Play Updates:  FLIR, JCP
  Bearish Play Updates:  TSG

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  JNPR, RAD, SIRI
  Bearish Play Updates:  FCEL


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Ultratech Stepper - UTEK - close: 28.20 change: -1.30 stop: 31.00

Company Description:
UTEK develops, manufactures and markets photolithography 
equipment designed to reduce the cost of ownership for 
manufacturers of integrated circuits, including advanced 
packaging processes, photomasks, thin film magnetic recording 
devices and micro-machined components,  The company supplies 
step-and-repeat systems based on one-to-one (1X) and reduction 
optical technology to customers involved in the semiconductor 
fabrication process throughout North America, Europe and Asia.

Why we like it:
After several months of steadily moving higher, the price action 
in shares of UTEK is growing more volatile, which is often a sign 
of a topping formation.  Conveniently, the stock has also traced 
out a Head and Shoulders top, with price coming to rest on Friday 
right at the $28.25 neckline.  This slightly upward-sloping 
neckline is the result of connecting the slightly higher lows of 
the past 2 months, a trend that was broken on Friday.  But we 
don't want to get caught selling a breakdown before it happens, 
as many a bear has been caught in that trap in recent months.  So 
we're going to wait for a solid break of support, using a trigger 
at $27.50 before considering UTEK a live play.  We can afford to 
give up a little bit of room on the downside, because the 
measuring objective from the H&S pattern is $21.75 (28.25-6.50).  
Isn't it nice how the 200-dma is waiting near that level at 
$21.87?  A quick glance at the PnF chart reveals a fresh Sell 
signal on Friday, with a bearish price target of $22.

With so many factors pointing to $22 as a downside target, we 
won't argue and will set $22 as our exit target on the play.  
When the initial trigger is satisfied, aggressive traders can 
enter on the initial break, but need to be mindful of the 
possibility of a near-term bounce from the $26.50-27.00, where 
UTEK bounced in late August on the way up.  The more conservative 
approach to entering the play will be to wait for that rebound 
and then enter on a rollover from the $28.00-28.50 area, as 
broken support at the neckline provides new resistance.  Once 
below that $26.50-27.00 support, look for a potential bounce 
point near $24 before reaching our $22 target.  Initial stops are 
set at $31, which is above Thursday's intraday high, as well as 
the cluster of the 20-dma ($30.45), 30-dma ($30.89) and 50-dma 
($30.71).

Annotated Chart of UTEK:


Picked on December 7th at   $28.20
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              1/15/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       385 K





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Nextel Comms - NXTL - close: 25.37 change: -0.09 stop: 24.00

Despite the weakness in the NASDAQ last week, NXTL has held up 
remarkably well, pulling back ever so slightly in what looks an 
awful lot like a bull flag pattern.  Adding to the validity of 
that pattern is the fact that volume has been dropping off along 
with price.  The stock is still well above its strong support in 
the $24.30-24.40 area, with a rebound likely to commence either 
from that area, with the help of the 20-dma ($24.26) or from the 
$25.00 area with the help of the 10-dma ($25.05).  That rebound 
will provide the entry point we've been waiting for, setting the 
stage for another run at the top of the rising channel (hopefully 
for a breakout that sticks) and then a continued rally towards 
our $30 target.  Maintain stops at $24, as the site of that 
breakout over $24.50 should be defended.

Picked on November 26th at  $25.27
Change since picked          +0.10
Earnings Date              1/15/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    16.5 mln





---

Zebra Tech - ZBRA - close: 61.59 change: -1.39  stop: 59.98

Zebra Technologies announced on Thursday the retirement of the 
president of one of its units.  Contained within the press 
release was an announcement by the founder, Chairman, and CEO of 
the company, affirming his intention to focus on growth in bar 
code and specialty printing solutions, including the acquisitions 
of companies.  Last month, the company completed the acquisition 
of Atlantek.  

After moving down, ZBRA bounced on Thursday, testing and then 
closing above the 10-dma.  Volume was only about half average 
daily volume, however, a trouble signal on a bounce.  That 
trouble showed up Friday when ZBRA again fell to test support.  
RSI rolled over into full bearish mode, although it's still at a 
rather neutral 50.74 reading.  It did, however, break through its 
rising trendline, confirming price weakness.  Stochastics 
threaten to roll out of territory indicating overbought 
conditions, and MACD has made a bearish cross with the histogram 
registering a slightly negative number.  

We mentioned last Wednesday that ZBRA sometimes consolidates 
sideways a few days then drops down to reestablish support at its 
30-dma.  That pattern appears to be repeating.  The 30-dma now 
crosses at $60.05, just above our stop at $59.98.  We have been 
suggesting alternate stops for those traders who want to preserve 
profits.  We continue to suggest breakeven exits for those who do 
not want to weather a test of the 30-dma.  

Volume was as light on the pullback as it had been on Thursday's 
bounce, so pullback-and-bounce entries could still be considered 
on bounces from above the 30-dma.  Verify that volume continues 
to be low on pullbacks and expands on bounces before considering 
such entries, however.  Watch for RSI to hook up, too.  

Annotated Chart for ZBRA:


Picked on Nov 19 at  60.20
Change since picked: +1.39
Earnings Date:    10/23/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  618 thousand




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Silicon Labs. - SLAB - close: 44.03 change: -0.22 stop: 48.50

Thursday's plunge certainly got our SLAB play off to a nice 
start, with a clear violation of that trendline near $45.75.  
Potential support at $45 didn't even come into play, as the stock 
fell below $43 before finding any support.  As mentioned in 
Thursday's Play of the Day writeup, we didn't want to chase SLAB 
lower from there.  That advice turned out to be prudent, as the 
stock fractionally violated that low on Friday before rebounding 
back near the unchanged level.  SLAB's rebound on Friday is a bit 
perplexing given the more than 3% slide in the Semiconductor 
index, but can probably be attributed to the fact that it's sharp 
drop led the drop in the SOX.  For traders that didn't take the 
breakdown entry on Thursday, the next opportunity to get on board 
should come when this bounce fails below the $45-46 area, which 
should now be firm resistance.  Above there, we have even 
stronger resistance at $48, reinforced by the plunging 20-dma, 
now at $48.45.  We're still targeting a drop to the $39-40 area, 
so it makes sense to keep a fairly wide stop up at $48.50 for 
now.

Picked on December 3rd at   $46.55
Change since picked          -2.51
Earnings Date              1/19/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    1.25 mln






==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------


Marathon Oil Corp - MRO - close: 30.22  change: +0.06  stop: 28.75

Company Description:
Marathon Oil Corporation is an energy company engaged in the 
worldwide exploration, production and transportation of crude oil 
and natural gas. Through its 62 percent ownership of Marathon 
Ashland Petroleum LLC, the company also refines, markets and 
transports petroleum products in the United States. (Source:  
Company Press Release)

Why We Like It:
On October 10, MRO created a spread triple top breakout buy 
signal on the P&F chart, with a preliminary price target of 
$54.00. That was enough to draw our interest, but MRO also broke 
above a descending trendline that had been in place since early 
1998.  That really caught our interest, but breakout plays have 
not been particularly successful lately.  Since early October, 
however, MRO has been consolidating, building a base above that 
broken trendline.  Late in November, as President Bush's energy 
bill was blocked, MRO declined with other energy stocks, but even 
that setback did not take MRO below the support it had been 
establishing just below $29.00.  About a week ago, MRO climbed 
back above its 30-dma and began building a slightly higher base 
above $29.50.  

Now that it's done all this careful prep work, it looks ready to 
break to the upside.  MRO closed the week above $30.00.  The XOI, 
the Oil Index, has already broken above its October high, 
suggesting that MRO, one of its component stocks, might also 
break above its October high.

We do note the tall upper shadows on recent days, however.  
Although we would ordinarily suggest triggering this play on a 
move above October's $30.55 high, those tall upper shadows 
suggest that pullback entries might be better, buying on intraday 
dips to and bounces from the 10-dma. Although the $54.00 
preliminary target on the P&F chart suggests that a $35.00 target 
would be a modest and logical target, we do note that the $33.75 
level has been a swing top on many MRO advances on a monthly 
chart, so we expect considerable volatility as that level is 
approached.  We suggest that conservative traders set an 
automatic profit stop at $33.75, our first target.  

Analysts disagree about MRO's prospects, with Goldman Sachs 
reiterating its underperform rating in late October while other 
firms have proposed buy or hold ratings for the company's stock.  
Late Thursday, MRO issued a press release dissociating itself 
with the troubled Russian company Yukos Oil Co.  MRO said that 
although MRO had once been part of a joint venture with Yukos to 
explore opportunities outside Russia, that joint venture had been 
dissolved late last year when Yukos decided to concentrate on 
opportunities within Russia.  MRO continues discussions with 
Russia's state-owned Rosneft, however, with the company 
maintaining an interest in pursuing opportunities inside Russia 
as well as outside Russia.  In another release this week, the 
company said that the U.S. government had allowed it to take 
steps to extend its license agreements with Libya, with those 
licenses currently set to expire in 2005.  The company also 
introduced its new CFO.

Annotated Chart for MRO:


Picked on Dec 05 at  30.22
Change since picked: +0.00
Earnings Date:    01/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.2 million




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


FLIR Systems - FLIR - close: 34.96 change: -0.38 stop: 33.00

In light of the gyrations in the broad market, it was a pretty 
quiet week for our FLIR play, as the stock probed the $36 area by 
mid-week before dropping back a bit to consolidate near $35.  The 
price trend still looks fairly strong, as it holds above the 10-
dma ($34.73), but the downturn in the daily Stochastics is a bit 
of a concern.  We could be looking at a bit more of a pullback, 
before the bulls come out to play again, so entering on a dip and 
rebound from near the $34 support area seems like a good 
strategy.  The rising 20-dma ($33.38) should help to reinforce 
that support, as well as protect our $33 stop.  Aggressive 
traders can consider new entries on a rally through $36, but must 
remind mindful of the fact that FLIR has not been immediately 
following through on its breakouts.  Each one has been followed 
by some mild consolidation, and it is on that consolidation that 
we are finding the better entry points.

Picked on November 23rd at  $33.90
Change since picked          +1.06
Earnings Date              1/21/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       383 K





---

J.C. Penney Co. - JCP - close: 24.35  change: -0.39  stop: 23.95

A week ago, we'd written that we expected a pullback in JCP, but 
that pullback did not arrive earlier in the week as we expected.  
Rather it started mid-week.  When same-store sales reports came 
out Thursday, JCP's reports showed November's same-stores sales 
declining 0.8 percent.  The retailer claimed that post-
Thanksgiving sales had been stronger than last year's strong 
sales, and noted that those results would not show up until the 
December same-store sales figures.  Eckerd's continues to be a 
drag on JCP's sales figures, and JCP continues to explore a sale 
or spin-off of the drugstore chain.  Friday, JCP announced that 
"a number" of third parties had expressed interest in Eckerd.  
JCP also affirmed its outlook for the rest of the year when 
giving its same-stores sales figures.

Investors weren't buying that strong holiday sales story, 
however, with JCP dropping both Thursday and Friday.  Indicators 
had been hinting at a possible pullback for a week, and that 
pullback finally arrived, complete with MACD/price bearish 
divergence.  Price had reached a higher high while MACD peaks did 
not.  

One version of a rising trendline from early September crosses 
near the 50-dma, but that trendline and average both cross 
slightly below our $23.95 stop.  If JCP dips quickly to test that 
average and trendline before they can rise above $24.00, the play 
will be stopped at our $23.95 stop.  With the 21- and 30-dma's 
now joining just above $24.00, however, it's possible that JCP 
will steady near current levels long enough to allow that 
trendline and the 50-dma to rise and provide stronger support.  

JCP holds up better than the RLX, the S&P Retail Index, with 
respect to its behavior surrounding the 50-dma.  We're glad to 
see JCP's relative strength with respect to the 50-dma, because 
that strength predicts that JCP will regain its footing sooner 
than some other retail stocks in its sector.  Because the RLX 
closed below its 50-dma on Friday, we would not consider new 
entries in the JCP play at this time, however.  

Annotated Chart for JCP:



Picked on Nov 21 at  24.45
Change since picked: -0.10
Earnings Date:    11/11/03 (confirmed) 
Average Daily Volume:  2.5 million




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Sabre Hldgs - TSG - close: 19.88  change: 0.14  stop: 21.60

Thursday, TSG slipped lower, triggering our play, but Friday, it 
reversed course again and bounced.  The bounce was minimal and 
did not test the $20.20 level that had been important S/R on the 
weekly chart, but we did notice that volume spikes occurred on up 
moves.

The bounce also proved strong enough to hook stochastics and RSI 
up again, although not strong enough to move them up out of 
territory indicating oversold conditions.  Still, it's possible 
that both hint that TSG will move up to retest resistance before 
it falls again.  Resistance could be found between $20.20-20.50 
and again near $21.00.  The 200-dma and 50-dma, two closely 
watched and important averages, link near $21.50, and they should 
supply strong resistance if TSG should get that high.  Bounces 
and rollovers from beneath $21.00 might offer new entries, but 
first verify that volume does not continue to expand on any 
bounce.  We've seen a number of stocks lately that broke 
convincingly below their 200-dma's only to turn around and zoom 
above them again.  We don't think that's happening here but are 
on the alert because of those volume spikes during up moves on 
Friday's bounce.

TSG's public relations department remained quiet since the 
announcement earlier in the week that its chairman and CEO would 
leave to replace Betsy Bernard at AT&T.  So far, the bounce 
appears to be a normal bounce up to test broken support, 
establishing it as new resistance.

Annotated Chart for TSG:


Picked on Dec 03 at  19.92
Change since picked: -0.04
Earnings Date:    10/23/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  727 thousand





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 17.90 change: -0.24 stop: 17.20

Technology stocks have been leading to the upside for some time 
now, so it was about time that there was some greater weakness 
from that group, especially in relation to some of the less-than-
stellar news coming out of the sector.  Despite the weakness in 
the NASDAQ over the past couple days, JNPR has held up pretty 
well, with bulls stepping forward to defend the stock near 
$17.75.  That kept JNPR above both the bottom of the channel 
($17.40) and the 50-dma ($17.59) and as long as those support 
levels hold next week, then our $17.20 stop should be safe.  
Price action is looking similar to when we initiated coverage a 
couple weeks ago, with support being found just above the bottom 
of the channel and with daily Stochastics now entering oversold 
territory, this is the area where we should be looking for new 
entry points for another leg higher, hopefully this time to break 
out over $19 and into the upper half of the channel.  Any rebound 
from above $17.50 can be used for new entries.

Picked on November 19th at  $17.69
Change since picked          +0.21
Earnings Date              1/08/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    9.07 mln





---

Rite Aid - RAD - close: 6.30   change: +0.06  stop: 5.75

RAD garnered attention this week in an article discussing the 
high number of insider sales among U.S. companies in November.  
That's not exactly positive press, but RAD continues to 
outperform competitors WAG and CVS, as well as the retail index.  
Through Friday, RAD continued finding support along the former 
resistance offered at a short-term descending trendline.  While 
it's finding that support, the moving averages play catch-up, 
climbing under RAD's current price.

Of course, we can't help noticing those upper shadows spiking up 
above each day's candle body.  That suggests that RAD's price 
spikes are being hit by selling each time it tries to climb to 
new highs.  That selling has not spiked the volume, however, as 
volume remains below average daily volume, but Friday's biggest 
volume spike did occur during a down move.  

Still, we can't find fault with the way RAD sought support from 
its linked 10- and 21-dma's on both Thursday and Friday, rising 
from those averages. Such behavior would normally encourage us to 
suggest new entries from intraday pullbacks and bounces from the 
10-dma, but the weak performance of the RLX and RAD competitors 
makes us somewhat cautious.  Anyone considering new entries 
should first confirm renewed strength in the RLX as well as 
expanding volume on the bounces. 

Annotated Chart for RAD:


Picked on Nov 05 at   5.95
Change since picked: +0.35
Earnings Date:    09/25/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.5 million




---



Sirius Satellite Radio - SIRI - cls: 2.12 chng: -0.03 stop: 1.95

Nobody said this was going to be easy, and SIRI certainly proved 
that last week.  After its initial gap over the top of the 
descending channel, the stock essentially traded sideways for the 
balance of the week, finding support above the 10-dma ($2.07) and 
resistance at the 30-dma ($2.20).  While those averages kept the 
stock from making much progress in either direction, it has set 
up some action points for us next week.  Aggressive traders can 
consider entries on a rebound from above the 10-dma, while those 
looking for a breakout entry can use a trigger at $2.25, just 
over last week's intraday high of $2.24.  Once this range breaks 
to the upside, SIRI should make strides towards next resistance 
at $2.40 before taking a run at the late October highs.  Maintain 
stops at $1.95.

Picked on November 30th at   $2.08
Change since picked          +0.04
Earnings Date              1/28/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    53.6 mln






  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


FuelCell Energy - FCEL - close: 13.04 change: -0.37  stop: 14.85

For almost two weeks, FCEL struggled to climb above resistance at 
$14.00, but finally prices succumbed to late-week weakness and 
rolled down. Although volume wasn't particularly strong, volume 
on the late-week declines proved higher than volume on the 
earlier days as FCEL tested that resistance, and that's a good 
sign for our bearish play.  While volume confirmation is not as 
important in bearish plays as it is in bullish plays, it's nice 
to have as long as it's not so large as to suggest accumulation 
at low prices.

We'd like to see that downside gather speed ahead of FCEL's 
(unconfirmed) earnings release December 16 before the market 
opens. To speed up the downside, FCEL needs to fall below the 
November low.  Those considering new entries could look for a 
momentum entry on a fall below $12.72, that November low, but 
should also consider that momentum or breakout entries have not 
proven as successful in recent trading as they have in some 
periods.

Annotated Chart for FCEL:


Picked on Nov 28 at  13.46
Change since picked: -0.42
Earnings Date:    12/16/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  753 thousand






=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 12-07-2003
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of December 8, 2003
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of December 8th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

HOV    Hovnanian Ent, Inc.   Mon, Dec 08  After the Bell     2.68


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AZO    AutoZone Inc.         Tue, Dec 09  After the Bell     1.28
COST   Costco Wholesale Corp Tue, Dec 09  Before the Bell    0.31
EASI   Engineered Sprt Sys   Tue, Dec 09  Before the Bell    0.48
KR     The Kroger Co.        Tue, Dec 09  Before the Bell    0.29


-----------------------  WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

TOL    Toll Brothers         Wed, Dec 10  Before the Bell    1.14
TTC    Toro                  Wed, Dec 10  Before the Bell    0.21


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

ADBE   Adobe Systems         Thu, Dec 11  After the Bell     0.32
CIEN   CIENA Corporation     Thu, Dec 11  Before the Bell   -0.09
MDZ    MDS Inc.              Thu, Dec 11  Before the Bell     N/A
NDSN   Nordson               Thu, Dec 11  Before the Bell    0.39
COO    The Cooper Companies  Thu, Dec 11  -----N/A-----      0.62


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

PNY    Piedmont Natural Gas  Fri, Dec 12  -----N/A-----     -0.18


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

MRTN    Marten Transport, Ltd     3:2      Dec   5th   Dec   8th
CRRC    Courier Corporation       3:2      Dec   5th   Dec   8th
ATA     Apogee Technology, Inc    2:1      Dec  11th   Dec  12th
CKFB    CKF Bancorp, Inc          2:1      Dec  11th   Dec  12th
TRID    Trident Microsystems Inc  3:2      Dec  12th   Dec  15th
ADTN    Adtran                    2:1      Dec  15th   Dec  16th
PX      Praxair Inc               2:1      Dec  15th   Dec  16th
IMDC    Inamed Corporation        3:2      Dec  15th   Dec  16th
FFIC    Flushing Finl Corporation 3:2      Dec  15th   Dec  16th
CFC     Countrywide Finl Corp     2:1      Dec  17th   Dec  18th
WSBK    Wilshire State Bank       2:1      Dec  17th   Dec  18th
CW      Curtiss-Wright C          2:1      Dec  17th   Dec  18th
ROST    Ross Stores Inc           2:1      Dec  18th   Dec  19th
CLE     Claires Stores Inc        2:1      Dec  18th   Dec  19th
AMHC    American Healthways Inc   2:1      Dec  18th   Dec  19th
MBFI    MB Financial, Inc         3:2      Dec  18th   Dec  19th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

The main event this week is the FOMC meeting on Tuesday but 
Thursday and Friday are bristling with economic reports from
retail sales, import/export prices, PPI, sentiment numbers and
more.


==============================================================
                       -For-           

----------------
Monday, 12/8/03
----------------
None


-----------------
Tuesday, 12/9/03
-----------------
Wholesale Invntories(DM)Oct  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.4%
FOMC Meeting (DM)


-------------------
Wednesday, 12/10/03
-------------------
None


------------------
Thursday, 12/11/03
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      12/06  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     365K
Business Inventories (BB)  Oct  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.3%
Retail Sales (BB)          Nov  Forecast:    0.5%  Previous:    -0.3%
Retail Sales ex-autp (BB)  Nov  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.2%
Export Prices ex-ag. (BB)  Nov  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.1%
Import Prices ex-oil (BB)  Nov  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:    -0.1%
FOMC Minutes (DM)


----------------
Friday, 12/12/03
----------------
PPI (BB)                   Nov  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.8%
Core PPI (BB)              Nov  Forecast:    0.0%  Previous:     0.5%
Trade Balance (BB)         Nov  Forecast: -$41.2B  Previous:  -$41.3B
Mich Sentiment-Prel. (DM)  Nov  Forecast:    96.4  Previous:     93.7


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available




======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FPL     FPL Group Inc              65.56    +0.91
CFC     Countrywide Financial     107.70    +0.80
BR      Burlington Resources Inc   54.10    +0.67
IR      Ingersoll-rand Ltd         63.43    +0.71
ITU     Banco Itau S A (ADR)       43.78    +1.53


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

MEE     Massey Energy Company      16.70    +1.51


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

MEDI    Medimmune Inc              27.04    +1.64
BJS     BJ Services Co             35.00    +1.62
ALV     Autoliv Inc                37.03    +1.19
BG      Bunge Ltd                  29.40    +1.13


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

S       Sears Roebuck & Co         48.96    -3.63
APOL    Apollo Group Inc CI A      66.49    -2.61
FD      Federated Dept Stores      47.11    -1.28
ADBE    Adobe Systems Inc          38.90    -2.75
MCHP    Microchip Technology Inc   32.44    -2.06

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

ACL     Alcon Inc                  56.48    -1.66
ADI     Analog Devices Inc         47.16    -1.39
WLP     Wellp[oint Health Network  93.77    -1.33
MHP     Mcgraw-Hill Companies      67.65    -0.34
APOL    Apollo Group Inc CI A      66.49    -2.61





=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives