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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 12/18/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 12-18-2003
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright  2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Option Blowout!
Watch List:       AIG, IGT, EBAY, FDX and more!
Market Sentiment: The Return of the NASDAQ


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      12-18-2003           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10248.08 +102.90 10254.08 10137.34 1.92 bln   2388/ 838
NASDAQ   1956.18 + 34.90  1957.68  1924.62 1.71 bln   2185/1075
S&P 100   540.49 +  5.29   540.66   535.20   Totals   4573/1913
S&P 500  1089.18 + 12.70  1089.50  1076.48 
W5000   10582.82 +127.40 10585.96 10455.22
RUS 2000  546.90 +  8.18   547.62   538.07 
DJ TRANS 2987.16 + 20.90  2987.48  2953.76   
VIX        16.16 +  0.58    16.19    14.66
VXO (VIX-O)16.25 +  0.90    16.30    14.54
VXN        24.53 -  0.59    25.36    24.07 
Total Volume 3,949M
Total UpVol  3,296M
Total DnVol    592M
52wk Highs  664
52wk Lows    35
TRIN       0.55
NAZTRIN    0.42
PUT/CALL   0.65
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Option Blowout!

Maximum pain was inflicted to call option writers this month
and the result was broken resistance and new 52-week highs. 
The quadruple witch week caught traders off guard with prices 
well above those where they wrote the options and the short
covering began in earnest at the open. Once it was obvious
the market was not going to dip and give them a cheaper exit
the short covering began. It was still continuing at the 
close despite strong resistance finally slowing the advance.

Dow Chart - 120 min



Dow Chart - Weekly



Nasdaq Chart - 120 min



Nasdaq Chart - Weekly



Helping to stimulate the shorts to cover were blowout numbers
in both the Chicago Fed Index and the Philly Fed Survey. The
Chicago Fed National Activity Index posted a +0.55 headline
number for November compared to only +0.19 for October. The
three month moving average jumped to +0.33 from +0.01. Output
components added +0.44 to the index with employment components
only providing a negative drag of -0.05. This was the first 
three consecutive months of positive gains in three years.

The Philly Fed Survey also blew past estimates of 25.0 with 
a 32.1 headline number. Shipments jumped to 41.1 from 26.8
and new orders jumped to 41.8 from 20.8, almost doubling!
Back orders rose to 17.5 from 9.0 and employees actually
spiked to 21.9 from only 3.3. This was a VERY positive 
report and when accompanied by the Chicago report on the
same day they are probably dancing in the halls at the Fed.
The Philly Survey had many positive comments but they also
said that overall "expectations" for the next six months
remain positive but most future indicators were lower. This
means there was a spike in manufacturing but the survey
respondents are beginning to ratchet down their expectations
for 2004. This could be just caution and an easing of the
bullish sentiment into something closer to reality. As long
as the current conditions continue to improve nobody is
going to complain. 

Jobless Claims fell more than expected to only 353,000 from
375,000 last week. For the first time in over 90 weeks the
number for the prior week was revised down as well. That
was a real surprise. It was only -3,000 but we will take
what we can get. Evidently the Thanksgiving holiday did
skew the numbers into the following week and that skew has
now been corrected. This suggests we could be under 350,000
soon assuming there are no mass layoffs after the holidays.
Unfortunately January is known for companies going on an
employee diet and starting the new year from a trimmed
down level. Still the trend is positive and we hope to see
that sub 350K number in 2004. 

The markets got some help from the retail sector after WMT
and BBBY were upgraded to buy from neutral by UBS. BBBY
raised estimates by +2 cents yesterday after reporting an
increase in same store sales of +6.4%. Wal-Mart announced
today they were launching a website where consumers could
download songs for 88 cents a title, -11 cents less than
Itunes. The category killer is looking for another category
to invade. With the Wal-Mart clout they are sure to attract
attention and market share in whatever they do. Wal-Mart
had said on Monday that same store sales were tracking at
the low end of estimates at around +3%. Retailers will have
their chance to catch up this weekend. 41% of holiday sales
are made between Dec-17th and Dec-24th. Saturday is the
biggest shopping day of the year. Analysts have reported
some pickup in sales this week with the weather better
than the prior week. 

Chip stocks are likely to get some help tomorrow after the
Book-to-Bill number came in at 1.04 tonight. Last months
number was revised up to 1.01 making November the second
consecutive positive month. The November 1.04 was the 
highest level since the 1.02 in August 2002. The number
reached a low of 0.78 in October 2002. Orders climbed
+6.9% in November for the fourth monthly rise. The rate
of increase in all the components is slow but at least it
is continuing to increase. 

Intel is rumored to be announcing a chip for those large
screen HDTV sets that will significantly lower the cost
of the units. They are expected to announce this chip at
the January 8th Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas. 
This is a good step for Intel as it puts them into
the consumer market with a high dollar product that is
likely to have high margins. Current manufacturers are
TXN, HIT, PHG and SNE. Because of Intel's capacity and
technology they are expected to be a major player very
quickly. Analysts said TVs made with the Intel chip 
could drop to the $2,000 range by next Christmas. The
same product now runs from $3,000 to $10,000. Seven
million HDTV sets will be sold in 2003 and they expect
more than twice that amount in 2004.

Naked call writers took it on the chin today or maybe I
should say took a hit in their wallet. The levels where 
the most options would expire worthless and produce the 
maximum profit for option writers were significantly
below the current market levels. Traders short calls
had been hoping for one more dip before the Santa rally
to buy back those calls or pickup stock to offset the
damage. When we did not get a failure on Wednesday after
Tuesday's gains they began to get nervous. Especially
when there was a sprint into the close. The futures
traded up overnight and traders held their breath at
the open. After a short period of volatility where 
prices failed to fall the gold rush began. Traders 
began to bite the bullet and buy stock. The Dow surged
to 10200 by 10:00 and that resistance held until 2:00.
Once the Dow cleared the 10200 level there was a strong
rush of short covering aided by a fast buy program at
2:30. The Dow finally topped at 10254 and gravity took
hold once again. There was no drop but the ceiling was
in for the day.

Even the Nasdaq was feeling the love again with a +35
point gain. The Nasdaq charged out of the gate and ran
smack into resistance just below 1950 and could not
break free until the 2:30 buy program. Once that line
broke the volume really spiked. The close at 1954 was
the highest close since Dec-4th. That was the day after
the Nasdaq touched 2000. 

Needless to say there was a lot of surprised traders
and a lot of delighted funds. If the funds were holding
their breath last week with the dip below Nasdaq 1900
while watching their profits slip away then today was
a relief. With three real trading days left before 
Christmas there is little risk that we are going down
hard. Skip three more days of zero volume and the 
Christmas holiday and that leaves funds with only 
three more days on pins an needles. Considering that
those light volume holiday days are typically bullish
the funds just got a "get out of 2003" free pass.

With the jump to strong resistance at 10250 today and
only stronger resistance above to 10300 the odds are
very good we are not going much higher. The good news
is the odds are very good we are not going much lower
either. There is simply too much riding on the year-end
close and the odds of going back under 10,000 are almost
nonexistent. The great press potential of a year-end 
close over 10K and the massive profits the funds will 
pocket at this level will keep everyone on the sidelines
feeding the bears just enough to keep them at bay until
January.

For Friday there are no material economic reports and
Monday is blank as well. This leaves us to trade on
continued bullish sentiment and holiday euphoria. With
a huge chunk of options expiration already out of the
way with the SPX and DJX options now history we will
not have as much upward pressure tomorrow. Odds are
very good that anybody who needed to cover has already
done so on the individual stocks and other indexes. 
Any remaining scramble will occur at the open and then
traders will begin leaving for the holidays. With the
indexes other than the Nasdaq at new highs this is a
perfect opportunity for traders to clear the table and
take a long holiday. I have already received dozens of
emails from traders doing just that and signing off
until January. 

With strong resistance at 10250-10300 and SPX 1100 the
odds of another blowout are very slim. The Nasdaq and
Russell are already well below their highs on profit
taking despite the strong gains today. Friday's close
is when the Nasdaq rebalance occurs and selling in those
issues being removed could be a drag. The S&P Indexes
are also being rebalanced at the close of business on
Friday. These rebalancings could produce some heavy
volume in late trading but it is not expected to have
a material directional impact on the market. 

I am looking for a range bound market for the next week
between 10000-10300 and for volume next week to be very
slow. Volume on Thursday was good but not exceptional.
There were less than four billion shares traded across
all markets although the up volume was 6:1 over down.
If we can't break four billion shares on a day like
today you can imagine what next week will look like. 
Investors are going to end this year with a smile on
their face and that includes me. 

Jim Brown



==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------


American International Group - AIG - close: 64.80 change: +0.85

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of AIG turned bullish late last week with 
the breakout over the long-term descending trendline near $61.  
Since then, the stock has continued to surge higher and is on the 
cusp of another major breakout.  A move through $65 looks good 
for momentum entries ahead of an expected rally towards the $70 
level.  A pullback to the $63 area ahead of that breakout can be 
used for a lower-cost entry.




---

International Game Technology - IGT - close: 36.96 change: +1.56

WHAT TO WATCH: After consolidating for the past few weeks, shares 
of IGT exploded higher today on volume that dwarfed the ADV.  
While the stock seems a bit extended after that move, the $35 
level should now be strong support and a pullback near that level 
would make for a great entry ahead of a continued rally towards 
the $40 level.



---

eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 60.00 change: +2.71

WHAT TO WATCH: Momentum investors are piling into this old 
favorite, propelling it to a nearly 5% gain on Thursday.  It 
looks like a breakout is brewing as anticipation of a strong 
holiday performance by the online shopping crowd.  A pullback 
into the $58-59 area would make for the best entry, while 
momentum traders can enter on a breakout over $60.50, just over 
the closing highs from October.




---

Federal Express - FDX - close: 69.70 change: -1.31

WHAT TO WATCH: Over the past few months, shares of FDX have 
traced out a H&S topping pattern and on Thursday broke below the 
sloping neckline at $69.  Although there was a strong rebound off 
the lows, the stock now looks ripe for a downside play.  Target 
entries on a rollover in the $70-71 area and target a decline to 
the 200-dma near $65.





===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

CC $10.24 - In the battle for dominance in the electronic 
retailing world, CC is clearly losing the battle to BBY, as 
demonstrated by their recent disappointing earnings report.  The 
stock looks ripe for an oversold bounce from the $10 support 
area, but that should set up rollover entries back near $11 at 
the 50-dma.  Target a drop to strong support in the $8.50-9.00 
area.

WAG $35.75 - In sharp contrast to the rest of the market, shares 
of WAG have been doing poorly this week.  Thursday's sharp drop 
violated the ascending trendline of the past several weeks and 
despite the rebound from the 50-dma, the stock appears headed 
significantly lower.  Look for this bounce to fail below $36.50 
and use that rollover for entry, targeting a drop to $33 and 
possibly strong support at $32, near the 200-dma.

TRMS $19.75 - Where's the bottom?  It seems nothing can stem the 
slide in shares of TRMS and today's drop under $20 looks ominous, 
as it was accompanied by strong volume.  Use a failed bounce 
below $21 resistance and look for a continued decline to the $16-
17 area.



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

The Return of the NASDAQ
- J. Brown

After a month of lagging behind the DJIA the NASDAQ finally 
bounces back with a strong 1.8% gain.  Investors were in a 
holiday buying spree with visions of tech stocks dancing in their 
heads.  Some of today's strongest gains were found in hardware, 
software, and Internets but only the rebound in the 
semiconductors could come close to the surge in oil service 
stocks!  

Setting the mood this morning were a batch of bullish broker 
upgrades and strong economic news.  The better than expected drop 
in jobless claims to 353,000 for the week supports the 
expectation that the labor market is improving.  The real 
surprise today was the Philly Fed Index, which surged to 32.1 in 
December.  Many economists were expecting a drop from November's 
already robust 25.9 reading.  

The market internals were merry as advancing stocks danced past 
decliners 21 to 7 on the NYSE and 21 to 10 on the NASDAQ.  Up 
volume was six times down volume on the NYSE and five times down 
volume on the NASDAQ.  It was definitely a broad-based rally 
today.  

We did see some volatility in the volatility indices with a 
strong surge in the last two hours after the VXO hit new lows 
near 14.50.  I suspect it may be some last hour adjustments 
before tomorrow's quadruple witching expiration when all stock 
index futures, stock index options, individual stock futures and 
stock options all expire.


Overall it was an extremely bullish day and it looks like the 
trend for a Santa Claus rally will hold true again this year.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10254
52-week Low :  7416
Current     : 10248

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10026
 50-dma:  9811
200-dma:  9136

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1089
52-week Low :  788
Current     : 1089

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1070
 50-dma: 1052
200-dma:  982

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1453
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1431

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1406
 50-dma: 1410
200-dma: 1257


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VXO hit new intraday lows near 14.50 before skyrocketing 
higher in the last two hours of trading.  I think the quadruple 
witching options expiration tomorrow had traders big and small 
trying to even up their positions, which may have produced a 
surge in put buying.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) =  16.16 +0.58
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) =  16.14 +0.79
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      =  24.53 -0.59


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.65      1,083,462       704,617
Equity Only    0.55        665,543       363,051
OEX            0.94         76,123        71,640
QQQ            1.39         44,362        61,512


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          75.1    + 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    67.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       81.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       80.0    - 1     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.94
10-dma: 1.09
21-dma: 1.03
55-dma: 1.09


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2127      2090
Decliners     698       971

New Highs     392       140
New Lows       12        15

Up Volume   1602M     1375M
Down Vol.    245M      273M

Total Vol.  1874M     1661M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 12/09/03

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

There is just a hint of bearishness in the Commercials who have
upped their short positions. Right on cue the small traders have
increased their long positions but to a greater extent.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
11/11/03      389,965   415,259   (25,294)   (3.1%)
11/18/03      393,893   414,442   (20,549)   (2.5%)
12/02/03      394,531   414,223   (19,692)   (2.4%)
12/09/03      396,882   420,859   (23,977)   (2.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   18,486  -  6/17/03
 
Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/11/03      136,072    74,249    61,823    29.4%
11/18/03      147,842    80,047    67,795    29.7%
12/02/03      154,788    85,776    69,012    28.7%
12/09/03      172,178    99,484    72,694    26.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

The spread is narrowing between longs and shorts in the
commercials.  The opposite is happening in small traders'
positions with longs surging more than 20K contracts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
11/11/03      249,864   258,503    ( 8,639)  ( 1.7%)
11/18/03      249,286   264,083    (14,797)  ( 2.9%)
12/02/03      283,199   268,833     14,366     2.6%
12/09/03      294,006   288,385      5,621     1.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/11/03       94,649    51,815    42,834    29.2%
11/18/03       95,119    61,975    33,144    21.1%
12/02/03     119,555     77,609    41,946    21.3%
12/09/03     142,173     76,171    66,002    30.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There is a similar surge in commercial positions for the NDX
as seen in the S&P futures.  Small traders also increased
long and shorts but leaning heavily on new longs.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
11/11/03       35,889     49,201   (13,312) (15.6%)
11/18/03       35,608     49,689   (14,081) (16.5%)
12/02/03       35,569     48,552   (12,983) (15.4%)
12/09/03       39,612     51,443   (11,831) (13.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
11/11/03       26,212    10,730    15,482    41.9%
11/18/03       32,034    10,356    21,678    51.3%
12/02/03       21,594     9,429    12,165    39.2%
12/09/03       25,842    10,228    15,614    43.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

There is little to report for DJ futures by commercial 
traders but small traders have significantly increased their
short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
11/11/03       20,209    11,660    8,549      26.8%
11/18/03       20,746    11,080    9,666      30.4%
12/02/03       21,128    12,379    8,749      26.1%
12/09/03       20,378    11,934    8,444      26.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
11/11/03        6,105     8,201   (2,096)   (14.7%)
11/18/03        5,655     8,607   (2,952)   (20.7%)
12/02/03        6,667     9,302   (2,635)   (16.5%)
12/09/03        6,858    12,006   (5,148)   (27.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year:  (8,777) - 10/12/01
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03



-----------------------------------------------------------------




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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Thursday 12-18-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Play of the Day:           Bucking For A Breakout

Stop Loss Adjustments:     CIT, MRO

Stock Split Announcements: HRBT, YAKC

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Play-of-the-Day  (Bullish)
===============

CIT Group - CIT - close: 34.80  change: +1.10  stop: 32.75*new*

Company Description:
CIT Group Inc. (NYSE:CIT), a leading commercial and consumer 
finance company, provides clients with financing and leasing 
products and advisory services.  Founded in 1908, CIT has nearly 
$50 billion in assets under management and possesses the financial 
resources, industry expertise and product knowledge to serve the 
needs of clients across approximately 30 industries.  CIT, a 
Fortune 500 company, holds leading positions in vendor financing, 
U.S. factoring, equipment and transportation financing, Small 
Business Administration loans, and asset-based and credit-secured 
lending. CIT, with its principal offices in New York City and 
Livingston, New Jersey, has approximately 6,000 employees in 
locations throughout North America, Europe, Latin and South 
America, and the Pacific Rim.

Why we like it:
Since March, CIT has charged up a rising regression channel on its 
daily chart, and it looks ready to do it again.  As it has done 
numerous times since March, it retraced to the bottom of that 
channel, finding support at the (black) 30-dma.  RSI turned up 
again, and stochastics slow their descent in mid-channel, looking 
as if they might hook up again.  

One note of caution sounds when we study the P&F chart, because 
CIT long ago exceeded its $28.00 objective.  It has also exceeded 
the Morgan Stanley and UBS targets of $26-27, so is subject to a 
downgrade on valuation.  If this bullish play is living on 
borrowed time, however, CIT sure doesn't know it, as the bar chart 
shows.  We have noted bearish MACD divergence on the chart, but 
the same bearish MACD divergence showed up months ago, between the 
July and September, and September and October peaks, and CIT 
continues to climb.  That MACD divergence alerts us to be careful 
of stops, but since CIT has such a well-defined channel, that 
should not prove difficult.  Initially, we're setting the stop 
just below the (pink) 50-dma, with the initial stop at $32.40.  
We're setting a tight target, too, at $37.50, the site of a swing 
high on the monthly chart.  We see the possibility for CIT to 
climb much higher, however, but would rather exit ahead of the 
volatility we expect at that level.    

This week, CIT Equipment Finance, one division of CIT, announced 
that a survey of U.S. construction industry leaders showed that in 
eight out of the nine regions surveyed, respondents revealed 
double-digit growth in optimism.  CIT Equipment Finance's 
president crowed about the outlook, calling the results the best 
in the survey's 28-year history.  

An ideal entry would occur on a pullback to the (black) 30-dma or 
to the trendline, but we're not sure those entries will be 
offered.  Entries could also be taken at the current level.  

Why This is our Play of the Day
Our CIT play got off to a bit of a rocky start this week, pulling 
back near the 30-dma ($33.53) before gaining some traction.  But 
the bulls made up for lost time on Thursday, using that 30-dma as 
a springboard to vault the stock higher by nearly 3% today.  That 
rally propelled the stock through a couple layers of near-term 
resistance, bringing it up very near its recent closing highs.  
Traders that took advantage of the recent dip are sitting pretty 
right here, and momentum traders may get an opportunity to enter 
on a breakout above the 12/01 intraday high of $35.15.  One note 
of caution though is related to the fact that tomorrow is December 
options expiration.  That could cause the stock to be artificially 
pinned to that $35 level, meaning that the better approach for 
momentum entries will be to wait for continued strength on Monday.  
Pullbacks near the 30-dma still look attractive for new entries.  
Note that we've raised our stop to $32.75, just below the 50-dma.

Annotated Chart of CIT:


Picked on December 12th at  $34.05
Change since picked:         +0.75
Earnings Date:            01/22/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.01 mln






=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

CIT - long
Adjust from $32.40 up to $32.75

MRO - long
Adjust from $29.98 up to $30.40



=================================================================
Tech Stocks / Netbulls - 
=================================================================

CLOSED PLAYS
------------

  Closed Short Play
  -----------------

Ultratech, Inc. - UTEK - cls: 27.53 chng: +1.43 stp: 27.50

The strong volume that accompanied UTEK's rebound on Wednesday 
caused us some concern, as noted in last night's update.  That 
concern turned out to be well-founded, as the stock continued its 
strong rebound today.  Joining in the overall market rebound, the 
stock actually stretched as high as $18.15, before pulling back 
slightly at the close to end just a few pennies above our stop.  
While the rebound could stall here, the bullish oscillator 
configuration combined with the strong buying volume indicates 
that there is more upside to come.  This possibility is what had 
us getting aggressive with our stop, and it took us out of the 
play today with minimal damage.  If still holding open positions, 
we would suggest exiting on any early weakness tomorrow.

Picked on December 7th at   $28.20
Change since picked          -0.67
Earnings Date              1/15/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       385 K





=================================================================
Non-Tech Stocks / Active Trader - 
=================================================================

CLOSED PLAYS
------------

  Closed Short Play
  -----------------


Dollar Tree - DLTR - close: 30.23  change: +0.79  stop: 30.25

Continuing the Retail rally from Wednesday, the RLX index tacked 
on another 1.4% today on yet another dose of positive economic 
news.  While there was no company-specific news, DLTR managed to 
ride the sector rebound for a second consecutive day.  With 
today's 2.68% gain, DLTR broke above the 10-dma ($29.78) and 
closed right at its high of the day and a mere 2 pennies below 
our stop.  With oscillators turning strongly bullish, the stock 
has moved from experiencing an oversold bounce to a likely trend 
reversal.  It looks like a near certainty that our stop will be 
hit on any additional strength on Friday, so we'll concede defeat 
early and close the play for a fractional loss tonight.  Should 
DLTR drop early in the day tomorrow, we would suggest using that 
to gain a more favorable exit from the play, not to initiate new 
positions.

Picked on December 10th at      $29.54
Change since picked:             +0.71
Earnings Date:                 1/22/03 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:         1.64 mln





=================================================================
Stock Split Announcements
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------


HRBT banks on a 2-for-1 stock split.

During today's trading session, Hudson River Bancorp, Inc 
(NASDAQ:HRBT) announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 
2-for-1 stock split of its common shares outstanding.

The payable date for the stock split is set for January 15th, 2004 
to shareholders on record as of December 31st, 2003.  This would 
be HRBT's first stock split since being listed on the NASDAQ in 
1999.

About the company:
The Company had total assets of $2.5 billion and total deposits of 
$1.8 billion at September 30, 2003. Headquartered in Hudson, NY, the 
Company provides full-service banking, as well as investment 
management, brokerage, insurance, trust, private banking and 
commercial services through its subsidiary, Hudson River Bank and 
Trust Company ("Hudson"), and its 50 branch offices located throughout 
the Capital District area. The Company also services municipal 
customers through Hudson River Commercial Bank, a subsidiary of 
Hudson. Customers' banking needs are served 24 hours a day through an 
extensive ATM network system and through the Company's automated 
telephone banking system. The Company offers the convenience of 
Internet Banking through its Web site at www.hudsonriverbank.com.
(Source: Company Press Release)


---


YAKC connects shareholders with a 2-for-1 stock split

Before today's opening bell, YAK Communications, Inc (NASDAQ:YAKC) 
announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 2-for-1 stock 
split of its common shares outstanding.

The payable date for the stock split is set for January 29th, 2004 
to shareholders on record as of January 15th.  

About the company:
YAK Communications, Inc. (the "Company") (NASDAQ: YAKC - News) was 
incorporated in December 1998 in Florida to provide international long 
distance discount services to business and residential customers. The 
Company specializes in offering these services to consumers by way of 
a dial-around (known as "10-10"). The Company is a facilities-based 
reseller, which utilizes its own switching systems. Visit www.yak.com
(Source: Company Press Release)



==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

BCS     Barclays Plc (ADR)         35.60     +0.65
CVX     ChevronTexaco              83.55     +1.81
USB     US Bancorp                 28.91     +0.55
BAC     Bank of America            78.90     +1.02
XOM     Exxon Mobil                39.41     +0.53
HMC     Honda Motor Corp           21.55     +0.59

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

RHAT    Red Hat Inc                14.28     +1.11
ATVI    Activision Inc             19.00     +2.59
ASPT    Aspect Communication       15.32     +1.03
OMCL    Omnicell Inc               17.08     +1.02
SCOX    SCO Group                  19.08     +1.69
MMPT    Modem Media Inc             7.07     +1.12

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
AXP     American Express           46.77     +1.77
QCOM    QUALCOMM                   51.48     +2.16
SLB     Schlumberger Ltd           52.75     +2.35
CAT     Caterpillar Inc            83.71     +1.69
HON     Honeywell                  31.57     +1.31
DE      Deere & Co                 66.65     +1.08
IGT     Intl Game Technology       36.96     +1.56

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

FDX     Fedex Corp                 69.70     -1.31
CL      Colgate-Palmolive          50.30     -3.58
COGN    Cognos Inc                 29.98     -1.48
AMLN    Amylin Pharmaceuticals     21.88     -1.55
TTWO    Take-Two Software          27.84     -2.55

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

FCX     Freeport McMoran           43.52     -1.38
VNO     Vornado Realty Trust       54.00     -1.66
KROLL   Kroll Inc                  25.35     -0.15





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