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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 12/29/2003

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Monday 12-29-2003
                                                  section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Has anyone got a nose bleed yet?
Play of the Day:  Nearing The Goal

===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     12-29-2003            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10450.00 +125.33 10450.00 10321.35 1.30 bln   2236/ 620
NASDAQ   2006.48 + 33.34  2006.48  1976.93 1.38 bln   2202/ 922
S&P 100   549.23 +  6.45   549.24   542.78   Totals   4438/1542
S&P 500  1109.48 + 13.59  1109.48  1095.89
RUS 2000  563.88 +  8.98   563.88   554.90
DJ TRANS 3038.15 + 39.82  3038.15  2998.60
VIX        17.09 -  0.36    17.86    17.07
VXO        16.04 -  0.43    16.99    15.95
VXN        23.73 -  0.28    25.11    23.52
Total Volume 3,062M
Total UpVol  2,533M
Total DnVol    482M
52wk Highs    1118
52wk Lows       17
TRIN          0.36
PUT/CALL      0.53
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Has anyone got a nose bleed yet?
Jane Fox

It was an extremely bullish day on Wall Street today. The bulls
ere well rested after their Christmas break and came back with
sugar plumb fairies dancing in their heads and pushed all the
major indexes to new 52-week highs. Nasdaq composite jumped
33.34, or 1.7%, to 2006.48 and closed above 2000 for the first
time since January 2002. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed
125.33, or 1.2%, to 10450.00, while the S&P 500-stock index rose
13.59, or 1.2%, to 1109.48.

Helping the bullishness was the Help Wanted Index, which rose in
November, breaking the stagnation of recent months and posting
the first demonstrable increase in the index since midsummer.
This along with the recent pattern in jobless claims clearly
suggests that the job market has turned. The monthly change in
jobs is likely to accelerate to over 200k per month in the coming
months and in 2004, the job market should be helped by a powerful
combination of cyclical factors and the forthcoming $100 billion
in realized tax cuts that will be dealt in the first half of the
year.

Continuing on with the economy, economic reports out tomorrow
include the weekly chain store sales, which isn't a market mover
but many traders will be dissecting this number to see how well
retailers are doing with the Christmas season coming to an end.

Then tomorrow at 10:00AM ET we have the release of the December
Chicago PMI. The November Chicago PMI came in well above
expectations rising to 64.1, a level not seen since February
1995, but December consensus is for a decrease to 62. If this
number comes in above 64.1 the market will react very favorably.
One way or the other I would not be in a daytrade when this
number comes out.

Also at 10:00AM ET is the release of Existing Home Sales for
November where the consensus is for it to resume its upward climb
to 6.5M after the September retracement to 6.35M.

Finally at 10:00AM ET is the release of The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence number with a consensus of 91.8, which to me
is asking a lot for last month it took a 10-point surge, the
highest reading since September 2002. Once again if this number
beats the consensus number it could put a very bullish tone on
the day.

Leaving the economic front and moving closer to home, federal
investigators have concluded the Holstein infected with mad-cow
disease from Washington State was imported into the U.S. from
Canada about two years ago. The Canadian Agriculture Department
have provided records that indicate the animal was one of a herd
of 74 cattle that were shipped from Alberta, Canada, where a case
of mad-cow was found in May, into the US in August 2001. As a
result, the U.S. has lost approximately 90% of its beef exports
as more than a dozen countries stopped buying American beef as
insurance against potential infection.  Although the US only
exports 10% of its beef, there are many Americans who may take a
hiatus from beef consumption until this is all cleared up, which
could take months.

Although officials earlier said most of the meat went to
Washington and Oregon, investigators have now determined that
some of the meat from the cow went to Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,
Alaska and Guam.

In other Mad-Cow news, Japan has rejected a U.S. request to
discuss lifting a ban on American beef. Japan bought more than $1
billion of U.S. beef last year.

Moving on to more global concerns, two U.S. planes were among the
first of 45 foreign aircraft carrying aid and workers to assist
the stricken people of Bam, Iran where the estimated death toll
is more than 25,000 from Friday's 6.6-magnitude earthquake that
shook the city and surrounding region in southeast Iran. Some
officials have expressed fears that the death toll could rise as
high as 40,000. At least 10,000 are believed wounded.

And From the Beat Goes on Column, the scandal surrounding
Parmalat, Italy's eighth-largest company, has widened, with
prosecutors saying the company's founder, Calisto Tanzi, is under
investigation for misappropriating half a billion euros of the
company's money over the years. Prosecutors also allege, as the
probe was getting under way, Parmalat employees destroyed
documents. It is uncanny as to how closely this is starting to
play out like the Enron scandal for Parmalat's auditor Grant
Thornton has been thrust to center stage as two of its employees
are under scrutiny in connection with fraudulent documents
related to their audits of a Cayman Islands-based Parmalat unit.
And the Beat Goes On - all over the world.
Before we move on to the charts there was one bit of noteworthy
news. The NYSE suspended trading of shares in Footstar (FTS), which
owns the Just for Feet and Footaction chains, and has moved to
delist the stock because of uncertainty over the shoe retailer's
financial records. The delisting is pending the completion of
various procedures, including any appeal by the company. After all
the accounting fiascos we have endured over the last few years what
could FTS have done to be delisted so unceremoniously. Seems odd
doesn't it?
On to the charts. First we will take a look at the mighty DOW. At
one point today all the 30 DOW stocks were green, a site one does
not see too often.

DOW DAILY



The last time RSI was above the overbought line the DOW took a
19.1% retracement (1st blue circles). Not a big retracement but
was good for 480-point move. A 19.1% retracement from current
levels (10450) would bring the DOW back to 9860 for a 600-point
move. That's tradable and may be all we get. Another thing I have
noticed is how well the retracement levels line up. If we get any
kind of retracement in the next few months (said with tongue in
check) these may be levels to monitor.

SPX DAILY



I have been bothered by a negative MACD divergence dating back to
September but that divergence resolved itself when MACD made a
higher high along with price.

According to RSI, SPX is not as overbought at the DOW but more so
than the NAZ.

You could also build a case for a bearish wedge but I think it
would be a weak case.

NASDAQ DAILY



I have also been bothered by a negative COMPX MACD divergence
since last September when each new high the NAZ would make was
met with a lower MACD high. But that may have resolved itself
today also when both the MACD and price made equal highs.

The NAZ is not as overbought as the other indexes so it is
looking to be the index with the most upside potential.


12-29-2003               High      Low    Volume
DJIA    10450.00+125.33 10450.00 10321.35 1.56 Bln
NASDAQ   2006.48 +33.34  2006.48  1976.96 1.39 Bln
S&P 100   549.23 + 6.45   549.42   542.50
S&P 500  1109.48 +13.59  1109.48  1095.89
RUS 2000  563.88 + 8.98   563.88   554.90
DJ TRANS 3038.15 +39.82  3038.15  2998.60 0.13 Bln
VIX        17.09 - 0.36    17.86    17.11
VXO        16.04 - 0.43    16.99    15.95
VXN        23.73 - 0.28    24.94    23.56

			NYSE		AMEX		NASDAQ
Total Volume 	1055M		243M		1414M
Total UpVol  	947M		191M		1095M
Total DnVol  	103M		28M		274M
52wk Highs     	642		144		312
52wk Lows       	13		3		4
Advancing Issues	2533		591		2267
Declining Issues	773		286		969

TRIN         		0.32
Total CBOE PUT/CALL  	0.53
Equity only PUT/CALL	0.38
OEX PUT/CALL		0.90	



===============
Play-of-the-Day  (Bullish)
===============


Nextel Comms - NXTL - close: 28.00 change: +1.13 stop: 26.00*new*

Company Description:
Nextel has come a long ways since its humble beginnings as a radio
dispatch company.  Providing mobile phone service, two-way radio
dispatch, and paging services to business users; all through one
Motorola handset, the company is growing into a major digital
wireless services provider.  NXTL's digital network (Digital Mobile
Network) constitutes one of the country's largest integrated
wireless communications systems utilizing a single transmission
technology.  NXTL has specialized mobile radio spectrum holdings in
and around every major business and population center in the U.S.,
including all of the top 50 metropolitan areas.

Why we like it:
The quiet consolidation pattern that NXTL has been in for the past
couple weeks broke on Thursday, with the stock blasting through the
top of its rising channel to set a new 52-week high.  That breakout
was somewhat reminiscent of the breakout above the channel on
December 1st.  But there's an important difference this time
around.  NXTL has now broken solidly above resistance left behind
after the plunge in February 2001, and more importantly, Friday's
price action held above the top of that channel, rather than
dropping back inside, as we saw in early December.  Slight
pullbacks into the $26.00-26.50 area can be used for new entries,
while momentum traders can consider new positions on a breakout
over $27.10.  We're still looking for a continued rally up towards
the top of the gap from 2001 near $30.  Maintain stops at $25.50.

Why This is our Play of the Day
After breaking out above the top of its rising channel early last
week and closing right at $27, NXTL certainly looked like it had
managed to break free from some important resistance.  Two days of
tight range consolidation around the holiday and the bulls came
back in a buying mood on Monday, sending the stock higher to the
tune of 4.2%.  The stock is now well into the gap from February
2001 and looks destined to test the top of that gap in the $29.50-
30.00 area.  With today's strong move and oscillators already deep
in overbought, chasing the stock higher would not be a choice we're
in favor of here, especially with our eventual target only about $2
away.  Aggressive traders can still look to establish new positions
on pullbacks near $26.50, which is both the top of the channel, as
well as the 10-dma ($26.51).  Raise stops to $26, which is well
back inside the rising channel and the site of what should be
strong support (former resistance).  By Wednesday, the 20-dma
($25.85) will have risen far enough to help protect that level as
well.

Annotated Chart of NXTL:



Picked on November 26th at  $25.27
Change since picked          +2.73
Earnings Date              2/19/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    13.4 mln





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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 12-29-2003
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2003, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Loss Updates:  ACE, CIT, DHI, MRO, NXTL, NVDA

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Updates
==================================================================

ACE - long
Adjust from $37.99 up to $39.00

CIT - long
Adjust from $33.05 up to $33.75

DHI - long
Adjust from $40.00 up to $41.50

MRO - long
Adjust from $30.89 up to $31.90

NXTL - long
Adjust from $25.50 up to $26.00

NVDA - long
Adjust from $19.90 up to $21.00


==================================================================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd (ADS)    54.28    +3.78
TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             90.68    +0.74
WB      Wachovia Corp              46.20    +0.55
RD      Royal Dutch Petrol         51.78    +0.60
CVX     Chevrontexaco Corp         85.50    +1.65
MWD     Morgan Stanley             58.60    +1.15


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

IBN     Iciici Bank Ltd (ADS)      17.91    +2.23
PAAS    Pan Amer Silver Cp         14.60    +1.61
TTMI    TTM Technologies Inc       17.85    +1.71


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

AA      Alcoa Inc                  38.91    +1.42
RTP     Rio Tinto Plc (ADR)       110.12    +2.12
IMO     Imperial Oil Ltd           44.32    +1.21
AL      Alcan Inccue Metal         47.77    +1.03
HNP     Huaneng Power Intl Inc     71.35    +3.37


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

PRX     Pharmaceutical Resources   64.30    -3.02


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

GILD    Gilead Sciences Inc        58.60    -0.35
TGN     Texas Genco Hldgs          32.05    -0.03




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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