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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 01/11/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 01-11-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Bears Confused By Facts
Play-of-the-Day:   Play It Again
Market Sentiment:  1,000 Jobs


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 01-09        WE 01-02        WE 12-26        WE 12-19
DOW    10458.89 + 49.04 10409.8 + 85.18 10324.6 + 46.45 +236.06
Nasdaq  2086.92 + 80.24 2006.68 + 33.54 1973.14 + 22.12 +  2.02
S&P-100  556.55 +  6.56  549.99 +  7.21  542.78 +  2.52 +  8.48
S&P-500 1121.86 + 13.38 1108.48 + 12.21 1096.27 +  7.61 + 14.52
W5000  10929.00 +151.14 10777.9 +115.48 10662.4 + 82.96 +114.94
RUT      575.20 + 14.35  560.85 +  5.75  555.10 +  8.22 -  0.71
TRAN    2988.94 - 19.22 3008.16 +  8.49 2999.67 + 12.24 +  4.02
VIX       16.75 -  1.47   18.22 +  0.83   17.39 +  0.97 +  0.01
VXO       15.94 -  2.00   17.94 +  1.36   16.58 +  0.53 +  0.10
VXN       23.01 -  1.50   24.51 +  0.56   23.95 -  0.94 -  0.97
TRIN       1.63            1.01            0.79            1.02
Put/Call   0.65            0.76            0.86            0.80
WE = week ending
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Bears Confused By Facts
by Jim Brown

The Jobs Report on Friday confused the bears but failed to
sway the bulls. The terror threat level was lowered and a
doctor with an MBA was the first wannabe cut by Donald
Trump. The Martian Lander phoned home that it was locked
in its room and Bush is sending men to Mars to help out.
Pete Rose admitted he bet on baseball and Brittany Spears
is single again. The Nasdaq set a new two-year high. Sounds
like a normal week in the markets. Can't wait to see what
next week brings.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart



There is no way to sugar coat it the Jobs Report was ugly
enough to stop a clock. Just a clock, not the stock market.
There was no good news unless you count the fact the headline
number was barely positive at +1000 jobs. I am betting it
gets revised down to negative next month. There were only
an additional 20 jobs created for each state for December.
The official consensus estimates were +127,000 to +150,000.
The whisper numbers were as high as +300,000. Sure looks
like a lot of analysts were on drugs when they did their
research.

The Jobs numbers were actually worse than it seems. The Nov
numbers were revised down to 43,000 from 57,000 and the Oct
numbers were revised to 100,000 from 137,000. The bottom
line was a drop in jobs of -51,000 over the prior 60 days
and almost zero job creation in December if the meager
+1000 stands. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7% but not
because people found jobs but because 309,000 workers gave
up looking during the month. Household employment also fell
-54,000 after big gains in November according to a different
jobs survey. Weak manufacturing payrolls continue to be the
burden. Levi Strauss closed its last American plant this
week completing a move of its entire manufacturing process
overseas. According to one analyst 630,000 apparel
manufacturing jobs are going to be moved overseas in 2004
based on known announcements. 1300 apparel plants in the
U.S. are scheduled to be closed. Over 170,000 workers in
India are now employed in call centers that were exclusively
U.S. jobs two years ago. Over 200,000 IT services jobs were
moved to India over the last twelve months. This is just the
tip of the iceberg. It is no surprise to many that the jobs
numbers remain weak.

The drop in jobs was the second monthly drop and with
historical trends suggesting January will be weak the odds
are good that string will stretch to three. Job creation
was also weak in the ISM Services report earlier in the
week and with services a leading indicator for manufacturing
that suggests we are in for some rough going. The
manufacturing work week fell to 40.7 hours and a further
drop will force GDP revisions for the 1Q and we have not
even seen the first estimate yet. Hours for the production
workweek fell to 33.7. Average hours worked fell to 98.8
in December. Used as a proxy for GDP this number for the
quarter only rose +2.18% suggesting the GDP will be lighter
than expected.

The Jobs report was the weakest report since July when the
economy lost -57,000 jobs. According to almost every real
economic analyst and the Fed the economy is not expected
to produce a sustained monthly pace of +150,000 jobs until
2005. Why then did the majority of the street analysts
think we were going over 200,000 on Friday. It boils down
to hype. The bullish sentiment was so strong that everybody
starts exaggerating to move out of the crowd. The first
guy says 150K, the second 160K, and so on. By the time
it makes the rounds the first guy is thinking he missed
something and raises his estimates again thereby starting
the process all over. Economic Bubblemania.

Why is this important? New jobs produce new consumers. A
drop in jobs removes consumers from the economy. Sure they
continue to buy food and pay rent in some form but they
are not out buying HDTVs from Gateway, Harley motorcycles,
2004 cars from GM or houses from Ryland. According to the
Jobs report 309,000 workers chose a lower standard of
living in December by dropping out of the workforce. That
translates directly to a drop in sales at Wal-Mart and
Target each month it occurs. Actually I am wrong. It
probably helps Wal-Mart and hurts ANN, GPS, SAKS, BBY and
JWN. Wal-Mart gains a new part time welcome greeter and
they spend their meager paycheck in the store. Jobs
produce consumers, consumers produce earnings.

Ten Year Note Yields



The best thing from the Jobs report was the certainty that
the Fed is on hold for probably all of 2004. This will keep
them from making changes for the next three months and once
past the May-4th meeting the political implications will
keep them from raising the rest of the year. Yields on the
ten-year notes fell to 4.08% and a three month low. (red
candle on the chart above) The drop on the yields was the
biggest move since September. This is good for the economy
and for the interest sensitive sectors. Homebuilder stocks
were mixed on the news despite a glowing guidance statement
from Pulte Homes (NYSE:PHM) saying their orders soared +31%
in the 4Q to over 8,000 units. The reaction to the sector
was mixed because they applauded the drop in rates but
worried if unemployment will become a bigger sales issue.

Money does not appear to be a problem for the markets. The
mutual fund cash flows soared to +$3.8 billion for the week
ended on Wednesday and stretched the string of positive
weeks to nine. This is the longest positive inflow streak
in three years. According to reports nearly $20 billion
flowed into money market funds in December, not stock funds.
This would suggest there is plenty of liquidity available
but most investors were not ready to plunge into the stock
market. This suggests there are plenty of buyers at the
right price.

Helping the markets in late morning was a change in the
threat level from orange to yellow. The markets celebrated
for about 20 min then went back to business as usual. The
change did not affect all sectors or geographic locations
but Tom Ridge would not say who or what was staying on
orange.

Despite the bad jobs numbers the market barely even blinked.
The indexes had the obligatory gap down open but the Nasdaq
roared right back to set yet another new high at 2113. The
rise in techs dragged the Wilshire 5000 to 11018 and a new
high but the broader index rose reluctantly, kicking and
screaming. The Dow never regained yesterday's highs and
struggled to break 10550 all day but was never successful.
About 1:30 the Nasdaq recovered from some profit taking at
the morning highs and managed one more upward push to set
the 2113 high before the selling began. The Dow and Wilshire
succumbed to the selling pressure and finally stop the
Nasdaq advance. Once the momentum changed it began to pick
up speed and the Dow finally cracked the 10520, 10500 and
10475 intraday support from earlier in the week and closed
down -133.

The Dow has stair stepped up in 20 point increments for the
last week but before that we were moving up in 100 point
sprints. Support levels for Monday begin at 10450 with
good support at 10400. Below 10400 it begins to thin out
to about 10000 where the 50DMA comes into play. The Nasdaq
has support at 2075 but if that breaks we could get to a
gap fill at 2000 rather quickly if the selling continued.
The Wilshire has decent support in the 10800 range and
very good support at 10400. The charts below show the Dow
with two very good indicators. Each is suggesting that we
could see some weakness ahead. In contrast the Nasdaq
chart shows the MACD still rising and still below previous
highs.

Dow Daily Chart with RSI


Dow Daily Chart with MACD



Nasdaq Daily Chart with RSI


Nasdaq Daily Chart with MACD




The first week of 2004 was a banner week. At the highs
Friday the Nasdaq was up +5% and the Dow +1% for the year.
The Nasdaq is rallying off six-year lows not seen since
July of 1996 and has gained +1000 points in the last 15
months. The Dow has gained +3200 points from the March
lows just nine months ago. The stall at the 2002 highs
has been expected. The biggest surprise has been the
strength of the rally to this point.

A Dow drop of -133 and a Nasdaq close -26 points off its
highs is nothing. This was simply a one-day profit taking
event prompted by the strong gains for the week and the bad
Jobs report. This should not be interpreted as a correction
or the beginning of a bear market. There is so much bullish
sentiment under the market that any further drops are not
likely to be swift or sharp. What we had on Friday was a
normal event on bad data. If it continues next week then
it could morph into something worse but regardless of the
depth it is still a buying opportunity.

Next week we begin the Q4 earnings announcement cycle. We
have seen a pickup in guidance announcements last week and
they went both ways, positive and negative. Dow component
Alcoa released earnings Thursday night and on the surface
the news was good. After closer examination there were a
number of unusual items and a benefit from a lower than
expected tax rate. What started out as a good report
turned into an earnings miss and the stock dropped about
-5% Friday morning. Alcoa will not be the only company
that does live up to expectations. Next week the releases
pick up speed and importance.

Wednesday begins the tech parade with AAPL, LLTC, PLNR,
QLGC, TER, YHOO and INTC. Thursday we have JNPR, SUNW,
ASML, CREE, DGII, EXTR, FCS, RMBS, TMTA and VNWK. Friday
we get GE. This list of earnings reporters is far from
complete but the ones I listed should give us a pretty
good idea how the rest of the month will go. If we see
several of the techs going soft on guidance then we could
see additional weakness in the markets. If they beat the
estimates and raise guidance then the Nasdaq could retest
the Friday highs. Because of the very strong gains in the
last six days strong expectations have been priced into
the market. Just like the strong expectations were priced
into the Jobs report a disappointment in these earnings
could be a challenge.

Traders will be looking at the economic reports for next
week for confirmation that the recovery is still alive.
We start on Monday with the Kansas Fed Manufacturing
Survey. Tuesday is the Richmond Fed Survey. Wednesday
the PPI and the Fed Beige Book. Thursday we get the CPI,
NY Manufacturing Survey, the Philly Fed Survey and the
MAPI Survey for Q4. Friday has Business Inventories,
Consumer Sentiment and Industrial Production. Make no
mistake this is a very full week.

Wednesday is the key day with two Fed surveys out of the
way, the Beige book, AAPL, YHOO, QLGC and INTC earnings.
This is an information overload day and what happens on
Thursday will be a direct result. Nobody expects YHOO or
INTC to miss earnings so the key is always the guidance.
The risk is a simple guidance affirmation. If they do
not guide higher in some form we could see trouble. So
far in 2004 the techs have led the league in base hits
and home runs. Gains have been astronomical in SUNW +18%,
JNPR +19%, RMBS +16%, TMTA +22%, JDSU +23% and TLAB +20%
to just name a few. The valuation calls are already
beginning. For instance Morgan Stanley downgraded Lucent
on Friday saying the gains were overdone. With techs only
expected to gain +22% overall in 2004 there is obviously
a disconnect. All the predicting and forecasting is over
and next week is where the rubber meets the road.

Earnings are generally expected to come in at +22% for
the 4Q with Thomson Financial suggesting they could be
as high as +28%. This is huge if it really comes to
pass. It would be the best earnings quarter since 1993.
The stage is set and the curtain is rising. All we need
is for the stars to give the performance of the decade.
Can they do it? Can they meet these very strong
expectations? Check back next week and we will see how
many are nominated for Oscars and how many were booted
off the stage.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


=========================
Play-of-the-Day (bullish)
=========================

Orbital Sciences - ORB - close: 12.90 change: +0.44 stop: 11.90

Company Description:
Orbital Sciences Corp. designs, develops, manufactures and
operates small space systems for United States government
agencies and for global commercial and scientific customers.  The
company's product lines are comprised mainly of suborbital
rockets that are used as target and boost vehicles for missile
defense systems; small-class launch vehicles that place
satellites weighing up to 3,000 pounds into low-Earth orbit;
geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) communications satellites
weighing up to 5,000 pounds, and low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites
weighing up to 5,000 pounds that are used for communications,
remote sensing, scientific and military missions.

Why we like it:
We had some fun playing shares of ORB to the upside a few months
back and then stepped away after the stock drifted out of the
lower edge of the rising channel.  That led to another 2 months
of sideways action, but things started to really heat up again in
early December.  On December 3rd, ORB was selected for a $400
million contract for Kinetic Energy Missile Defense Interceptors
by the Northrup Grumman/Raytheon team.  Then another boost
arrived with the award in mid-December for an Australian contract
for two GEO communications satellites.  That helped to lift the
stock up to the $12.50 area, where it has been finding resistance
ever since.  Until Friday, that is.  The stock broke out on
strong volume in approval of comments from the Bush
administration about a renewed push into space, with a potential
permanent presence on the moon.  While it was unable to hold onto
all its gains, we won't be too critical of ORB, as it did still
manage a 3.5% gain on a pretty painful day for the overall
market.

After the recent consolidation between $12.00-12.60, this gives
us a great opportunity to play the upside, while keeping our risk
low.  Next strong resistance comes in at $15 and ORB looks like
it could be headed there in short order.  At the same time, it is
possible to keep risk very limited with a stop just under the
consolidation zone of the past few weeks.  Aggressive traders can
enter on a breakout above Friday's $13.24 high, but the better
entry will come on a test and rebound of the $12.50-12.60 area
confirming it as support.  This support should be reinforced by
the 20-dma ($12.14).  We'll set our stop initially at $11.90,
just under the lows of the past 3 weeks.

Annotated Chart of ORB:


Picked on January 11th at   $12.90
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =       381 K




================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

1,000 Jobs
- J. Brown

If you were amazed by the non-stop climb in the major indices
over the last several weeks then you're probably awestruck today.
The fact there the markets only produced minor losses after such
a HUGE jobs miss is simply incredible.  Economists had been
expecting, on average, a gain of 150,000 new jobs for the economy
in December.  The whisper number was even higher!  Yet the truth
was nowhere close to that figure.  Only 1,000 new jobs were
created.  It will be interesting to see what direction this
number is revised in a few weeks.

Part of the bullish argument here is that such a low number
merely reinforces the Fed's concerns over a weak labor market and
strengthens the belief that they will remain on the sidelines
(from raising interest rates) for some time to come.  There is a
growing chorus for no change until 2005.  Furthermore, such a
strong lack of hiring suggests that employers are squeezing every
ounce of productivity gains from their current workforce. That
means more profits for corporations and merely fans the flames
for Q4 earnings expectations.  From this angle one might see how
the market was just ho-hum over the news.

However, the real concern is whether or not the current economic
recovery will slip from "self-sustaining" back into needing fresh
stimulus.  Then there is always the political fallout.  If the
economy doesn't start producing more jobs and quickly it becomes
a major stumbling block for the current administration and that
casts even more uncertainty over the upcoming election.  Lest we
forget, markets hate uncertainty.

Technical indicators could also come into play.  We saw the
volatility indices all reach new lows this Thursday as the
markets were peaking.  Needless to say they are screaming "market
top" but then they've been doing that for a while now. However,
this time the major indices do look extremely overbought and in
need of a correction.  Plus the ARMS index moving averages are
all approaching bearish reversal levels.  How fortunate that
we're at a key turning point as we approach Q4 earnings.  I
believe the real question this week will be investor reaction to
earnings.  Expectations are so high that it may be impossible to
satisfy them.  Instead of driving stock prices higher, investors
may use strong earnings reports as an excuse to "sell the news".


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10592
52-week Low :  7416
Current     : 10458

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10472
 50-dma: 10013
200-dma:  9305

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1131
52-week Low :  788
Current     : 1121

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1116
 50-dma: 1071
200-dma:  999

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1541
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1520

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1487
 50-dma: 1430
200-dma: 1288

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Finally we are beginning to see the volatility indices act
somewhat "normal".  The markets hit some selling pressure on
Friday and option premiums inflated enough to send the VIX
VXO and VXN higher.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.75 +1.14
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.94 +1.48
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 23.01 +1.12


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.65      1,116,174       723,463
Equity Only    0.45        942,691       420,871
OEX            1.35         30,880        41,808
QQQ            1.13         70,198        79,199


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          77.7    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    80.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   86.7    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       87.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       85.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.98
10-dma: 0.90
21-dma: 0.93
55-dma: 1.06


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1317      1236
Decliners    1544      1848

New Highs     270       216
New Lows        8         4

Up Volume    760M     1228M
Down Vol.   1373M     1198M

Total Vol.  2148M     2445M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 01/06/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Oh no... the commercial traders are back to their old pattern of
doing just about nothing.  We see little change in small traders'
positions either.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
12/09/03      396,882   420,859    23,977     2.9%
12/16/03      448,103   460,670    12,567     1.4%
12/22/03      400,066   405,240    (5,174)   (0.6%)
01/06/04      403,721   408,729    (5,008)   (0.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/09/03      172,178    99,484    72,694    26.8%
12/16/03      172,947   113,704    59,243    20.7%
12/22/03      147,537    81,596    65,941    28.8%
01/06/04      142,844    83,518    59,326    26.2

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Ah...we are seeing some movement here.  Commercials are upping
their long and short positions but they've turned more bullish
than the previous week.  Small traders also increased positions
on both sides of the fence but they remain optimistic.



Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
12/09/03      294,006   288,385      5,621     1.0%
12/16/03      330,273   361,316    (31,043)   (4.5%)
12/22/03      128,801   213,021    (84,220)  (24.6%)
01/06/04      175,489   240,865    (65,376)  (15.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/09/03     142,173     76,171    66,002    30.2%
12/16/03     177,193     73,694   103,499    41.3%
12/22/03     125,248     43,482    81,766    48.5%
01/06/04     139,433     51,909    87,524    45.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There is little change in commercial traders' positions this
week.  Meanwhile small traders have turned very bearish with
a sharp reduction in outstanding long contracts.



Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/09/03       39,612     51,443   (11,831) (13.0%)
12/16/03       61,343     73,153   (11,810) ( 8.8%
12/22/03       40,277     36,452     3,825    5.0%
01/06/04       42,892     37,801     5,091    6.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
12/09/03       25,842    10,228    15,614    43.3%
12/16/03       28,676    15,197    13,479    30.7%
12/22/03       22,656    14,544     8,112    21.8%
01/06/04        8,035    17,911   ( 9,876)  (38.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Par for the course, commercial traders are not altering their
bets this week.  Looks like small traders are following suit.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/09/03       20,378    11,934    8,444      26.1%
12/16/03       23,509    13,880    9,629      25.8%
12/22/03       14,088     9,998    4,090      17.0%
01/06/04       15,697     9,497    6,200      24.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
12/09/03        6,858    12,006   (5,148)   (27.3%)
12/16/03        9,497    19,633  (10,136)   (34.8%)
12/22/03        6,915     8,983  ( 2,068)   (13.0%)
01/06/04        5,713     8,105  ( 2,392)   (17.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 01-11-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  MXO

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     AGE
  Bullish Play Updates:  ACE, MRO
  Bearish Play Updates:  ELAB, MHS
  Closed Bullish play:   CIT

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     CPWR, ORB



==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Maxtor Corp - MXO - close: 11.98 change: -0.42 stop: 11.25

A recent Forbes article reported some positive comments from
JPMorgan on MXO's prospects.  The JPM analyst believes MXO is
positioned well for longer-term growth and should do well in
consumer electronics with the introduction of Personal Video
Recorders (PVRs) and Digital Video Recorders (DVR's).  Shares of
MXO have been following the NASDAQ's climb higher and pulled back
slightly on Friday.  Traders can look for minor support at its
10-dma near 11.60.

Picked on Jan 4th  at $11.68
Gain since picked:     +0.30
Earnings Date       01/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    4.5 million





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------


A G Edwards - AGE - close: 34.48 change: -1.04 stop: 36.25

Company Description:
A.G. Edwards, Inc. is a financial services holding company whose
primary subsidiary is the national investment firm of A.G.
Edwards & Sons, Inc. For more than 116 years, individuals and
businesses have turned to A.G. Edwards to develop strong personal
relationships with financial consultants dedicated to a client-
first philosophy of providing financial solutions tailored to
their clients' individual needs. A.G. Edwards and its affiliates
encompass 6,956 financial consultants in 706 offices nationwide
and two European locations in London, England and Geneva,
Switzerland. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
AGE isn't getting any love.  The company reported pretty strong
earnings results in mid-December but the post-earnings bounce
failed and shares have turned in a dreary 2004.  Not only is the
stock weak but it's a major under performer of its peers.  The
XBD broker-dealer index is hitting new 3+ year highs while AGE is
breaking down.

Friday's performance was the clincher and is likely to draw bears
hungry to feed.  AGE broke support at $35.00, its 200-dma and
last ditch support at $34.50, all on rising volume.  Its MACD
indicator has rolled over again into a fresh sell signal while
its stochastics (5,3,3) and RSI are pointing lower.  There is
arguable support near $32.00 but we think AGE can trade toward
the $30.00 level.  We'll start the play with a stop loss at
36.25.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on Jan 11th at $34.48
Gain since picked:     -0.00
Earnings Date       12/18/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    576 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

ACE Ltd - ACE - close: 42.10 change: +0.17 stop: 40.50

Shares of ACE continue to climb higher but in haphazard fashion.
As of Wednesday we were preparing to close the play for lack of
movement but shares began to trade higher again and actually hit
the $43 mark intraday on Friday.  Its technical oscillators are
mixed with its MACD in oversold territory but its stochastics
(5,3,3) are curling higher again.  Plus, ACE's point-and-figure
chart remains bullish.  The candlestick on Friday looks like a
top but then so did last week's big surge.  We'll keep our stop
loss at 40.50 and see how far ACE can run.  New positions are not
recommended at this time.

Picked on Dec 22nd at $40.05
Gain since picked:     +2.05
Earnings Date       01/27/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    1.3 million



---

Marathon Oil - MRO - close: 34.00  change: -0.10  stop: 33.25

Late in the week, news coming out of Europe pressured the oil
sector, although Thursday, a WSJ report said that U.S. oil
companies would meet with Libyan official next week to discuss
their return to Libya.   Friday's news included Royal
Dutch/Shell's decision to reclassify the quality of 20 percent of
its reserves.

Unlike some of the oil majors, MRO held up fairly well,
consolidating all week above the rising 10-dma.  That 10-dma is
now comfortably above our $33.25 stop, allowing a little room for
MRO to overshoot a test of the moving average and give it room to
bounce.  We'll be taken out quickly if MRO instead needs to
retreat more deeply, down to the 21-dma.

Oscillators show some troubling signs, with MACD finally
flattening as it's been threatening to do.  RSI and stochastics
turned down, but they've been squiggling around in territory
indicating overbought conditions for some time now without
affecting price action.  Another troubling sign, however, was
that toward the end of the week, the volume on down days equaled
the previous volume on up days.  That's not what you want to see
in a bullish play, particularly when the stock is just at key
resistance.

Above the current level, next resistance lies from 35-35.30 and
then at $37.00.  We would not suggest new entries at this time,
and will instead follow MRO up with stops, exiting ahead of
January's earnings announcement.

Annotated Chart for MRO:


Picked on Dec 05 at  30.22
Change since picked: +3.78
Earnings Date:    01/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.2 million




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Eon Labs Inc. - ELAB - close: 46.56 change: +1.83 stop: 49.50

Just like clockwork (and as we expected) ELAB had a big bounce on
Friday.  We didn't know when it was coming, but after losing
nearly $7 in 3 days last week, an inevitable bounce had to be
lurking in the shadows.  This is the principle reason why we
didn't advocate entries on further weakness.  Now that the
rebound has gotten started, we simply need to look for a viable
rollover to use for our entry point.  Resistance in the $48-49
area looks like the best point for a rollover to occur and that's
where we'll want to look to take a position.  But wait for the
rollover, don't just enter on ELAB reaching those price levels.
Momentum traders can now enter on weakness below last week's lows
-- we got the oversold bounce and so a break under $44 would be a
serious sign of weakness.  Remember, our stop is set at $49.50,
which is just above the 10-dma ($49.20), just now crossing under
the 50-dma ($49.23).

Picked on January 7th at    $45.65
Change since picked          +0.91
Earnings Date              2/19/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       274 K



---


MedcoHealth Solutions - MHS - close: 32.94 chg: -0.81 stop: 34.51

Wow! After a week of volatility we're right back where we started
in MHS at $32.94.  Shares of Merck's recent spin off have failed
three times in the last three days at its descending 10-dma.
Friday's performance looks very discouraging for the bulls and
MHS looks poised to break the $32 mark.  Potentially contributing
to its weakness is a new AP article that came out after the close
on Friday.  Peabody Energy Corp has filed a $35 million lawsuit
against Merck (MRK) and MHS on racketeering charges.  They allege
that MHS sold its clients MRK drugs even though cheaper drugs
were available.  It will be interesting to see where shares open
on Monday but right now this looks like an entry point.

Picked on Jan 5th  at $32.94
Gain since picked:     +0.00
Earnings Date       02/11/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    1.6 million



===========
CLOSED PLAY
===========

  --------------
  CLOSED BULLISH
  --------------

CIT Group - CIT - close: 37.50 change: +0.36  stop: 35.75

CIT broke ranks with the heavy-equipment companies this week,
with companies such as DE, CAT, CMI, and CNH either consolidating
or falling, and with CIT continuing its gains.  CIT provides
heavy-equipment financing.  The BKX, the Kbw Bank Index, was
rising, and CIT traded more in congruence with that index.
That's fortunate for us, since CIT hit our $37.50 bullish target
on Friday.

CIT still has more upside before it hits the top of its ascending
regression channel and MACD lines separate and turn strongly
upward.  Other oscillators trend sideways at levels indicating
overbought conditions as they often do in a strongly trending
stock.  However, volume dropped and Friday's candle showed both
upper and lower shadows, a candle that's often indicative of
indecision.  With the key moving averages so far below and with
an unfilled gap yet to be tested, CIT seems vulnerable to a
pullback.  It's been vulnerable to a pullback since that gap in
late December, however, without ever pulling back, so it may well
climb before it retreats.

Picked on Dec 12 at  34.05
Change since picked: +3.45
Earnings Date:    01/22/03 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  879 thousand




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------


Compuware Corp. - CPWR - close: 6.72 change: +0.33 stop: 6.00

Company Description:
Compuware Corporation develops, markets and supports an
integrated set of systems software products designed to improve
the productivity of data processing professionals in application
development, implementation and maintenance.  In addition, the
company's professional services include business systems
analysis, design, programming and implementation, as well as
software conversion and systems planning and consulting. CPWR's
products and services are offered worldwide across a broad
spectrum of technologies, including mainframe and distributed
systems platforms.

Why we like it:
Just one example of the bullish sentiment that is prevailing in
this market is when a lower-priced, higher-valuation stock like
CPWR can blast higher by more than 5% on a day when the rest of
the market loses ground.  To be fair, the stock has been building
up to this breakout for some time now, having been mired in its
$4.75-6.50 trading range since early June.  It looked like a
bullish pattern with the lows getting higher, but we needed some
proof of that bullish conviction.  That proof arrived on Friday
when the stock broke out to its best levels since June of 2002 on
volume that more than tripled the ADV on no news.  This is a
purely technical move and we want to jump aboard for the ride.

After trading in this range for more than 6 months, CPWR is
unlikely to just power higher without a pullback to confirm the
top of the range as new-found support.  So our preferred entry
strategy will be to enter on a pullback and rebound from the
vicinity of $6.25-6.50.  First resistance shows up near $7.00 and
then begins to strengthen near $7.50-7.75.  So you can see why it
makes more sense to enter on a pullback rather than trying to
chase the stock higher.  We'll use an initial stop at $6.00, just
under the 20-dma ($6.07) and target a move to the $7.50 level.

Annotated Chart of CPWR:


Picked on January 11th at    $6.73
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              1/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.11 mln



---

Orbital Sciences - ORB - close: 12.90 change: +0.44 stop: 11.90

Company Description:
Orbital Sciences Corp. designs, develops, manufactures and
operates small space systems for United States government
agencies and for global commercial and scientific customers.  The
company's product lines are comprised mainly of suborbital
rockets that are used as target and boost vehicles for missile
defense systems; small-class launch vehicles that place
satellites weighing up to 3,000 pounds into low-Earth orbit;
geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) communications satellites
weighing up to 5,000 pounds, and low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites
weighing up to 5,000 pounds that are used for communications,
remote sensing, scientific and military missions.

Why we like it:
We had some fun playing shares of ORB to the upside a few months
back and then stepped away after the stock drifted out of the
lower edge of the rising channel.  That led to another 2 months
of sideways action, but things started to really heat up again in
early December.  On December 3rd, ORB was selected for a $400
million contract for Kinetic Energy Missile Defense Interceptors
by the Northrup Grumman/Raytheon team.  Then another boost
arrived with the award in mid-December for an Australian contract
for two GEO communications satellites.  That helped to lift the
stock up to the $12.50 area, where it has been finding resistance
ever since.  Until Friday, that is.  The stock broke out on
strong volume in approval of comments from the Bush
administration about a renewed push into space, with a potential
permanent presence on the moon.  While it was unable to hold onto
all its gains, we won't be too critical of ORB, as it did still
manage a 3.5% gain on a pretty painful day for the overall
market.

After the recent consolidation between $12.00-12.60, this gives
us a great opportunity to play the upside, while keeping our risk
low.  Next strong resistance comes in at $15 and ORB looks like
it could be headed there in short order.  At the same time, it is
possible to keep risk very limited with a stop just under the
consolidation zone of the past few weeks.  Aggressive traders can
enter on a breakout above Friday's $13.24 high, but the better
entry will come on a test and rebound of the $12.50-12.60 area
confirming it as support.  This support should be reinforced by
the 20-dma ($12.14).  We'll set our stop initially at $11.90,
just under the lows of the past 3 weeks.

Annotated Chart of ORB:


Picked on January 11th at   $12.90
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =       381 K






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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 01-11-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of January 12, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of January 12th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

MTB    M&T Bank Corp         Mon, Jan 12  -----N/A-----       1.40
MDC    M.D.C Hldg            Mon, Jan 12  After the Bell      2.06
MTG    MGIC Investment Corp. Mon, Jan 12  Before the Bell     0.95
STI    SunTrust              Mon, Jan 12  Before the Bell     1.19


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ACN    Accenture             Tue, Jan 13  Before the Bell     0.28
AMB    AMB Property Corp     Tue, Jan 13  After the Bell      0.58
ASO    AmSouth BanCorp       Tue, Jan 13  Before the Bell     0.45
ARA    ARACRUZ CELULOSE S A  Tue, Jan 13  -----N/A-----       0.55
BBT    BB&T Corp             Tue, Jan 13  Before the Bell     0.69
FNFG   1st Niagara Finl Grp  Tue, Jan 13  Before the Bell     0.15
LALW  .OB  Laidlaw Intl, Inc.Tue, Jan 13  After the Bell      0.18
PLT    Plantronics, Inc.     Tue, Jan 13  After the Bell      0.28
STT    State Street Corp     Tue, Jan 13  Before the Bell     0.65

------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AAPL   Apple Computer, Inc.  Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      0.14
CYN    City National Corp    Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      1.05
DAL    DELTA AIR LINE INC DELWed, Jan 14  Before the Bell    -1.66
DNA    Genentech, Inc.       Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      0.25
INTC   Intel Corp            Wed, Jan 14  -----N/A-----       0.25
LLTC   Linear Technology     Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      0.23
MI     Marshall & Ilsley     Wed, Jan 14  Before the Bell     0.62
NCC    National City         Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      0.66
PKX    POSCO                 Wed, Jan 14  -----N/A-----        N/A
PCP    Precision Castparts   Wed, Jan 14  -----N/A-----       0.62
QLGC   QLogic                Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      0.37
RJF    Raymond James         Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      0.50
TER    Teradyne Inc.         Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      0.00
YHOO   Yahoo, Inc.           Wed, Jan 14  After the Bell      0.11


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

AGI    Alliance Gaming Corp. Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.27
ASML   ASML Hldg NV          Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.00
BAC    Bank of America Corp  Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     1.78
BRO    Brown & Brown         Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.37
CATY   Cathay General BancorpThu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.72
CBCF   Citizens Bank         Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.42
CLC    CLARCOR Inc.          Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.59
CMA    Comerica Inc          Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.88
CBH    Commerce Bancorp, Inc.Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.69
CFBX   Community 1st Bnkshrs Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.49
CREE   Cree Inc.             Thu, Jan 15  After the Bell      0.15
EXTR   Extreme Networks      Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell    -0.03
FCS    Fairchild Semi Intl   Thu, Jan 15  After the Bell      0.10
FITB   Fifth Third Bancorp   Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.79
FMER   FirstMerit            Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.21
FBF    FleetBoston Finl Corp Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.64
HIB    Hibernia Corp.        Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.45
JNPR   Juniper Networks      Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.05
MOLX   Molex Inc.            Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.19
NCF    Natl Commerce Finl CrpThu, Jan 15  After the Bell      0.43
NAP    National Processing   Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.28
NFB    North Fork Bancorp    Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.64
PBCT   People's Bank         Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.24
RDC    Rowan Co, Inc.        Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.07
SLM    SLM Corp              Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.49
SUNW   Sun Microsystems      Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----      -0.05
TCB    TCF Finl Corp         Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.88
UCBH   UCBH Hldg, Inc.       Thu, Jan 15  After the Bell      0.35
UPC    Union Planters Corp   Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.52
VLY    Valley Natl Bancorp   Thu, Jan 15  Before the Bell     0.40
WB     Wachovia Corp         Thu, Jan 15  -----N/A-----       0.88


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

ABT    Abbott Labs           Fri, Jan 16  Before the Bell     0.65
DSL  Downey Finl Corp.       Fri, Jan 16  Before the Bell     0.94
HBAN  Huntington Bancshares  Fri, Jan 16  Before the Bell     0.38
KEY  KeyCorp                 Fri, Jan 16  Before the Bell     0.53
RF  Regions Finl Corp.       Fri, Jan 16  Before the Bell     0.73
WL  Wilmington Trust         Fri, Jan 16  Before the Bell     0.54


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

NRGY    Inergy GP, LLC            2:1      Jan  12th   Jan  13th
HRBT    Hudson River Bancorp, Inc 2:1      Jan  15th   Jan  16th
TARR    Tarragon Realty Investors 5:4      Jan  15th   Jan  16th
FRK     Florida Rock Industries   3:2      Jan  16th   Jan  19th
SWWC    Southwest Water Company   2:1      Jan  20th   Jan  21st
PHS     PacifiCare Health Systems 5:4      Jan  20th   Jan  21st
MRX     Medicis Pharmaceutical    3:2      Jan  23rd   Jan  26th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

This week the Q4 earnings season reaches full force and will
continue for the next two or three weeks as announcements come
fast and furious.  We also have a very full week with nearly
18 economic reports.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 01/12/04
----------------
None


-----------------
Tuesday, 01/13/04
-----------------
Export Prices ex-ag. (BB)  Dec  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.2%
Import Prices ex-oil (BB)  Dec  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.3%


-------------------
Wednesday, 01/14/04
-------------------
Trade Balance (BB)         Nov  Forecast: -$42.0B  Previous:  -$41.8B
PPI (BB)                   Dec  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:    -0.3%
Core PPI (BB)              Dec  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:    -0.1%
Fed's Beige Book (DM)


------------------
Thursday, 01/15/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      01/09  Forecast:    351K  Previous:     353K
CPI (BB)                   Dec  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:    -0.2%
Core CPI (BB)              Dec  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:    -0.1%
NY Empire State Index (BB) Jan  Forecast:    37.8  Previous:     37.4
Retail Sales (BB)          Dec  Forecast:    0.7%  Previous:     0.9%
Retail Sales ex-auto (BB)  Dec  Forecast:    0.4%  Previous:     0.4%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)      Jan  Forecast:    30.0  Previous:     32.1
Treasury Budget (DM)       Dec  Forecast: -$12.0B  Previous:    $4.7B


----------------
Friday, 01/16/04
----------------
Business Inventories (BB)  Nov  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.4%
Industrial Production (DM) Dec  Forecast:    0.7%  Previous:     0.9%
Capacity Utilization (DM)  Dec  Forecast:   76.1%  Previous:    75.7%
Mich Sentiment-Prel. (DM)  Nov  Forecast:    94.0  Previous:     92.6


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

JPM     JP Morgan Chase & Co       38.87    +0.20
SNP     China Petro & Chem (ADS)   44.11    +0.16
CHA     China Telecom              44.50    +2.20
AMX     America Movil              31.36    +0.71
AIB     Allied Irish Banks Plc     33.68    +0.35


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

AV      Avaya Inc                  15.34    +0.58
AMT     American Tower Corp        12.90    +0.04
ANDW    Andrew Corp                17.98    +0.48
CHINA   Chinadotcom Corp A         11.18    +0.35


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

NOK     Nokia Corp (ADS)           20.75    +0.28
UN      Unilever N.V.              68.16    +0.48
QCOM    Qualcomm Inc               59.14    +0.19
ERICY   LM Ericsson Telephone Co   21.84    +0.73
HIG     Hartford Dncl Srvcs Grp    62.17    +0.08


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

LLY     Eli Lilly & Company        67.61    -0.49
ABT     Abbott Laboratories        45.10    -0.42
DNA     Genetech Inc               90.47    -0.25
MLEA    Millea Holdings Inc (ADR)  65.38    -0.81
KSS     Kohl's Corp                41.13    -0.67


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

CB      Chubb Corp                 66.53    -0.20
CIN     Cinergy Corp               38.32    -0.11
WEN     Wendy's Internat Inc       38.14    -0.52
PIXR    Pixar                      67.89    -0.49
PRE     Partnerre Ltd              57.21    -0.27


=================================================================
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

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