PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 01-14-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Let the Fireworks Begin Watch List: Right Back At You =============================================================== MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) =============================================================== 01-14-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10538.37 + 53.19 10548.51 10428.67 1.94 bln 1905/ 942 NASDAQ 2111.13 + 14.69 2111.73 2094.32 2.08 bln 1854/1206 S&P 100 559.77 + 4.02 559.90 555.75 Totals 3759/2148 S&P 500 1130.52 + 9.30 1130.75 1121.22 RUS 2000 586.12 + 4.96 586.12 581.16 DJ TRANS 3031.61 + 12.33 3044.47 3017.99 VIX 16.75 - 1.29 17.30 16.40 VXO 16.70 - 0.17 17.10 16.26 VXN 23.17 + 0.12 23.44 22.77 Total Volume 4,434M Total UpVol 2,860M Total DnVol 1,480M 52wk Highs 906 52wk Lows 14 TRIN 0.71 PUT/CALL 0.66 =============================================================== =========== Market Wrap =========== Let the Fireworks Begin by James Brown Today was a big day in the U.S. stock markets. Investors translated yesterday's weakness as a buying opportunity and stocks soared at the open. Boosting the indices was plenty of economic news with the trade deficit numbers, the PPI, and the Fed's Beige book report. There was a midday lull as traders began to take some money off the table but by the afternoon buyers were back and stocks closed near their highs for the session. After the bell is when the real fireworks began and the show should continue tomorrow. Overseas markets were mixed. Asian stocks were generally weak with the NIKKEI up 13 points to 10,863 and the Hang Seng down 75 to 13,320. European bourses did better with the FTSE up 21 to 4461 and the DAX up almost 59 to 4055. Strength across the Atlantic didn't hurt U.S. stocks and the Dow Jones Industrials managed an 111-point gain to close at 10538. The NASDAQ managed a 14-point jump amid weakness in the semiconductors ahead of Intel's post-market earnings. The S&P 500 added 9 points to close at 1130. Selling was strongest in the XAU gold & silver index, down more than 4% as gold lost $3.50 to close at $420.50 an ounce. Oil service stocks also fell behind with a 1.6% drop in the OSX index as crude oil prices dropped 23 cents to $33.78 a barrel. Meanwhile investors were busy elsewhere buying the dip from yesterday. Homebuilders and healthcare stocks saw the strongest gains with defense, airlines and broker-dealers outpacing the broader indices. Overall market internals were pretty positive. The NYSE saw advancers crush declining stocks 19 to 9 and the NASDAQ reported winners outpacing losers 3 to 2. Up volume was almost three times down volume on the NYSE. It was a much closer race on the NASDAQ with up volume hitting 1158 million shares versus 865 million in down volume. Chart of the DJIA: Chart of the NASAQ: One benefit to the dollar's decline has been a rise in U.S. exports. The month of November showed a 59 percent jump in civilian aircraft sales. These sales combined with a strong increase in consumer goods and food translated into a 2.9 percent jump in monthly exports to $90.6 billion. This marked the highest level of exports in three years and helped narrow the trade gap to just $38.0 billion in November, an 8.6 percent decrease, which completely caught economists by surprise. The U.S. trade gap has been a growing concern among economists and politicians alike. The first 11 months of 2003 have already hit a new record at $446.8 billion, surpassing 2002 levels. However, the unexpected improvement in November combined with Alan Greenspan's comments yesterday that it could be managed set investors in a good mood this morning. This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) also underpinned today's stock market action. The Labor Department reported that December's PPI index rose 0.3 percent while the core PPI, excluding food and energy, dropped 0.1 percent. Economists had been expecting a rise in the PPI and the core PPI after November's big decline but were surprised to see the core rate of inflation drop again. Overall 2003 witnessed the fastest rise for inflation in several years but most experts feel the climb has been mild and Wall Street believes the FOMC has it under control. About midday the Federal Reserved released their Beige Book report, which showed optimistic trends across the nation's twelve districts and "modest improvements" in the labor markets. Retail sales were strong and factory utilization was improving but loan demand appeared flat. This coincides with recent earnings reports from some regional banks who warned that 2004 might be soft until loan demand improves. The Beige book also reported that travel and tourism was up and that housing numbers were strong. An hour after the Beige book report the afternoon rally began as investors started to repositions themselves in eager anticipation for this evening's earnings bonanza. The biggest announcement came from chip behemoth Intel Corp (INTC). Wall Street was estimating that Intel would turn in profits of 25 cents a share on revenues of $8.64 billion for the quarter. The headline number was 33 cents a share on revenues of $8.74 billion. By first accounts this was a blow out number and some of the financial media is reporting that this is Intel's best quarterly profit since Q3 of 2000. However, drilling down into the details reveals why the stock was trading lower after hours. The real earnings number may be closer to 27 cents. Intel had already told analysts that earnings would reflect a $200 million tax benefit but that benefit turned about to be about $620 million or about 9 cents a share. The $420 million difference is worth about 6 cents a share so that 33 cents becomes 27 cents. Yet if we remove the tax benefit completely Intel's profits were just 24 cents a share and below the 25 cent estimates. Even so the 24- cent number would be an improvement over Q4 last year where Intel reported profits of 16 cents on revenues of $7.16 Billion. Looking ahead Intel is guiding first quarter revenues in the $7.9 billion to 8.5 billion range but analysts were already expecting $8.24 billion. This isn't the glowing report that investors were hoping for and Intel's expectations that gross margins might dip to 60% from its current 63.6% is far from inspiring. Overall Intel tried to put a positive spin on the quarter saying that business is beginning to see early signs of an I.T. turnaround and stronger spending patterns by corporations. Commenting on the fourth quarter Intel's CFO Andy Bryant said growth was worldwide with strength in emerging markets and steady demand from mature markets like N. America and Western Europe. Investors were also eager to hear from Yahoo! (YHOO). Analysts were expecting YHOO to turn in profits of 11 cents a share on revenues of $495 million. What YHOO reported was a net profit of 11 cents a share on revenues of $663.9 million. However, if you remove the traffic acquisition costs (paid by its Overture division) revenues are reduced to $511.3 million for the fourth quarter. This is still above analyst estimates and well above 2002's Q4 revenues of $285 million. Looking ahead YHOO is forecasting Q1 revenues of $475 to $505 million compared to consensus estimates of $492 million with earnings at 11 cents per share again. While this is positive news it wasn't enough to excite any buyers and shares fell strongly after hours. In other news YHOO announced an agreement with Chinese Internet portal Sina.com (SINA) to join forces for an online auction service for Chinese users. Earnings news from Apple (AAPL) was also taking a bite out of this evening's headlines. Wall Street was looking for AAPL to beat estimates of 14 cents a share. Apple reported profits of 17 cents a share ($63 million) on revenues of $2.01 billion. However, if you back out a $3 million after-tax investment, that number becomes just 16 cents a share. Overall it was a strong quarter compared with last year's Q4 $8 million loss (-2 cents/share). It also proves the success of Apple's iPod and iTunes products. Apple's CEO Steve Jobs said the company shipped 829,000 Macintosh computers, 733,000 iPod's in the quarter and that their iTunes online music store accounts for 70 percent of the legal music-download market. Apple guided higher for the first quarter predicting 8 to 10 cents a share on revenues of $1.8 billion, which is better than analyst estimates of 7 cents on $1.7 billion but it wasn't enough to stop some after market profit taking. There were of course dozens of other companies reporting earnings after the bell tonight but overshadowing their announcements was news that J.P.Morgan Chase & Co (JPM) would acquire Bank One (ONE) for nearly $60 billion. Rumors had been circling that the two were in merger talks and the Wall Street Journal broke the story right after the close of trading today. The new entity would become the nation's second largest bank, based on assets, behind Citigroup. Shares of ONE rose 10 percent after hours while JPM slipped 4 percent. As a Dow component, JPM will be a negative impact on the index tomorrow. There was also merger news circling around the on again off again relationship between AT&T Wireless (AWE) and Cingular Wireless. The two companies had discussed a merger over a year ago and never reached a conclusion. Speculation that they two will be more agreeable among today's more competitive marketplace pushed shares of AWE up 17 percent to $9.99. In other business news Andrew Fastow, the former CFO for Enron Corp, has pleaded guilty to accounting fraud. Reports have been circling around Andrew and his wife Lea Fastow who have been trying to arrange a plea bargain so that one of them would be free to watch over their two children. It appears they finally came to an agreement with prosecutors. Lea will plead guilty to a single count of filing a false tax return and serve five months in jail and an additional five months under house arrest. In exchange for Andrew's guilty plea the government has agreed to drop 96 of the 98 charges against him on the condition that he cooperate in their other investigations (namely against Ken Lay and Jeff Skilling). Mr. Fastow will also forfeit $23.8 million in assets and spent the next 10 years in jail. It's hard to estimate what kind of affect this type of news will have on the marekts, if any, but the fact that the government is making progress in the case and that some of the key people will spend time behind bars could be a positive for investor sentiment. Tomorrow is going to be another crazy day. As I have been suggesting for days now investor reaction to these much- anticipated earnings announcements has been to "sell the news". Standouts in tomorrow's earnings parade will be Bank of America (BAC) and Sun Microsystems (SUNW). Yet dwarfing them both will be a surprise announcement from IBM. IBM had been expected to announce earnings on January 20th but the company changed their mind and said they'd be ready tomorrow. Big Blue is now expected to report at 7:30 AM ET on Thursday. Analysts are estimating earnings to be $1.50 a share on revenues of $25.02 billion. Rumors have been circling for several days now that the company might miss based on poor performance from its services division and SAP's recent sales miss and Accenture's earnings miss don't inspire a lot of confidence (unless IBM is just stealing customers from them). IBM's earnings report is such a market event it will most likely dwarf Thursday's economic events with the weekly jobless claims, the CPI report, the Empire manufacturing survey and the monthly retail sales numbers. A few traders have suggested that IBM's eagerness to report might be hiding a positive earnings surprise but that could just be wishful thinking. Buckle your seat belts. Tomorrow could be volatile. ================ Play of the Day ================ With the new year we've decided to implement some improvements to the Premier Investor Newsletter. Instead of providing just one "play of the day" we are going to provide a daily watch list instead. This will provide you the reader with MORE candidates to watch for potential moves the following trading session. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- PMI Group, Inc. - PMI - close: 40.13 change: +0.43 WHAT TO WATCH: Breaking above strong resistance on Monday, PMI has held onto those gains and actually managed to inch a bit higher on Wednesday. A breakout over $40.50 resistance should give the stock another boost and bring the $43 level into play as a near-term target. Wait for the breakout before playing. --- Trinity Industries - TRN - close: 33.32 change: +0.70 WHAT TO WATCH: Following its strong surge higher in early December, shares of TRN have been building a solid bullish continuation flag and broke out on strong volume today. The size of the rally preceding the flag indicates the stock should have about $6 of upside (above the $32 level), making for an aggressive target of $38. There's no need being greedy though. Target entry on a pullback near the site of the $32 breakout and target a move to the $36-37 area. --- New York Community Bancorp - NYB - close: 39.40 change: +1.29 WHAT TO WATCH: Continuing its bullish trading pattern, NYB consolidated in the $36.50-38.00 area for more than a month before getting a strong rebound off the 50-dma this week. Ending the session just below strong resistance at $39.65, the stock is poised for a breakout and continuation to new all-time highs. Use a trigger at $39.70 and make a mental note of the fact the company reports earnings on January 28. --- City National Corp. - CYN - close: 59.20 change: +0.70 WHAT TO WATCH: Not all the financial stocks are doing well and regional banks are definitely underperforming. Shares of CYN gave a classic H&S breakdown yesterday and today's rebound is setting up a high-odds entry point on a bounce failure below the $60 neckline. First support is found just over $56, with an aggressive target being $54.50 at the bottom of the October gap. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== MEDI $22.20 - After the breakdown out of its rising channel back in August, shares of MEDI have been headed steadily lower. After breaking the December lows, the stock looks destined to test major support near $20. Use any failed bounce in the $23-24 area to enter and target $20. GSS $5.63 - After what seemed an eternity, profit taking has finally come to the mining sector and the more speculative names are getting hit the hardest of all. GSS plunged through its 50- dma on Monday and the selling hasn't let up yet. A break below the 100-dma looks like it will have room to fall to the $4.25- 4.50 area as the froth is removed from the sector. MEDX $8.17 - Breaking strongly higher earlier this month, shares of MEDX appear on the verge of another breakout. The $8 resistance effectively broke with today's close at a fresh 52- week high. Use a trigger just over Friday's $8.34 high and target a rally to the $10.00-10.50 area. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 01-14-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: -- ACE, CPWR, ORB Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks) New Bearish Plays: -- LNCR, X Stock Splits Announcements: -- TASR, WGO Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= ACE - 41.00 CPWR - 6.25 ORB - 12.25 ================================================================== Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section ================================================================== New Bearish Plays ----------------- Lincare Holdings - LNCR - close: 28.75 change: +0.47 stop: 30.75 Company Description: Lincare Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, is a provider of oxygen and other respiratory therapy services to patients in the home. The company's customers typically suffer from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, such as emphysema, chronic bronchitis or asthma, and require supplemental oxygen or other respiratory therapy services in order to alleviate the symptoms and discomfort of respiratory dysfunction. LNCR serves over 400,000 customers in 47 states through 642 operating centers. The company also provides a variety of durable medical equipment and home infusion therapies in certain geographic markets. Why we like it: LNCR was going along with the broad market rally quite nicely up until late November when the stock got slammed sharply lower in response the passage of the Medicare prescription plan, as investors took the stance that the company could be a loser in the big picture due to Medicare having the ability to peg rates. That was followed by a downgrade from Wachovia (11/21) that steepened the decline, sending shares as low as $33. A few days later (11/26), Deutsche Securities jumped in with its own downgrade, but the stock did not fall to new lows, showing that it was short-term sold out. Over the next couple weeks, an oversold rebound ensued, but it stalled out at the 20-dma (now at $29.86) and LNCR has once again been heading south over the past several weeks. Over the past few days, the stock has been testing the $28.25 support level and we think it is ready for a breakdown to new recent lows. The picture on the PnF chart bears out that the $28 level will be a key inflection point. A rebound here will embolden the bulls to buy the dip, while a breakdown will almost certainly have the bears eyeing the 2002 lows near $24. So we'll make this a passive play, waiting for the breakdown before playing. Use a trigger at $28.00 and consider entering on the initial break. More conservative traders will want to wait for a failed rebound in the $28-29 area before playing. We'll use a target of $24 for the play, with the understanding that there may be some volatility (read: near-term bounce) near the $26 support level. Set stops initially at $30.75, just above the highs from early January, as well as the 30-dma ($30.48). Annotated Chart of LNCR: Picked on January 14th at $28.75 Change since picked +0.00 Earnings Date 2/10/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 2.16 mln --- United States Steel - X - close: 34.17 change: -0.59 stop: 36.50 Company Description: United States Steel Corporation is primarily engaged in the production, sale and transportation of steel mill products, coal, coke and taconite pellets (iron ore) in the United States. The company's other businesses include steel mill products distribution, management of mineral resources, management and development of real estate and engineering and consulting services. Through U. S. Steel Kosice (USSK) in the Slovak Republic, the Company is engaged in production and sale of steel mill products and coke primarily for the central and western European markets. The Company has five operating segments: Flat- rolled Products, Tubular Products, USSK, USS Real Estate and Straightline Source. Why we like it: Counter-intuitive as it may seem, shares of X began to rebound in late November, shortly after revising the poor Q3 earnings report and the premature termination of tariffs on steel imports. It appears investors believed the worst was factored into the price and McDonald Investments agreed, raising their rating to Aggressive Buy on November 11th. The stock dipped just a bit, firmed near $22.50 and then launched itself higher in dramatic fashion, riding along with the broad market rally. By late December, the stock was flirting with resistance at $37, a level last visited in the middle of 1999. That's a rally of more than 60% in about 6 weeks for an industrial company that has been losing money hand over fist and has no P/E ratio. Clearly this rally needs to see some profit taking and it looks like that process is getting underway. Over the past several days, the stock has gradually pulled back to the $34 support level, but with today's break under the 20-dma ($34.70), it looks like the rate of decline could pick up sharply in the days ahead. That said, we want to make the stock prove its weakness to us before initiating a position. So we're going to set at trigger on the play at $33.75, just under Wednesday's intraday low. Look to enter on the initial breakdown and target a drop to the $29-30 area. X probably won't be able to drop below the bottom of that range with the 50-dma ($28.97) coming into play. Note also that the 50% retracement of the November- December rally is at $29.87. Set stops initially at $36.50, just above the January 8th intraday high. This will have to be a fairly quick play, with the company set to release earnings on January 28th. Clearly we'll be dropping the play ahead of the report. Annotated Chart of X: Picked on January 14th at $34.17 Change since picked +0.00 Earnings Date 1/28/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 2.42 mln ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- TASER Intl Shocks with a 3-for-1 Split Prior to the opening bell, TASER International, Inc. (NASDAQ:TASR) announced that it would split its common stock 3-for-1 in the form of a 200 percent stock dividend. The payable date for the stock split is February 10th, 2004 for shareholders on record as of January 26th. Shareholders will receive two additional shares for each share of common stock they own. The 3:1 split will bump the number of outstanding shares from 4.2 million to 12.6 million. About the company: TASER International, Inc. provides advanced less-lethal weapons for use in the law enforcement, private security, and personal defense markets. Its flagship ADVANCED TASER. M26 product uses proprietary technology to incapacitate dangerous, combative, or high-risk subjects that may be impervious to other less-lethal means. Its latest product, the TASER X26 is 60% smaller and lighter than the ADVANCED TASER M26 and reduces injury rates to suspects and officers, thereby lowering liability risk and improving officer safety. TASER. technology is currently in testing or deployment at over 4,000 law enforcement and correctional agencies in the U.S. and Canada. (Source: Company Press Release) --- Winnebago Drives a 2-for-1 Split Late this afternoon but before the closing bell Winnebago Industries Inc (NYSE: WGO) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. The split should be effective March 5th, 2004 for shareholders on record as of February 20th. The split will take place as a 100% stock dividend and push the number of outstanding shares to 33.8 million. About the company: Winnebago Industries, Inc. is the leading United States manufacturer of motor homes, self-contained recreation vehicles used primarily in leisure travel and outdoor recreation activities. The Company builds quality motor homes under the Winnebago, Itasca, Rialta and Ultimate brand names with state-of- the-art computer-aided design and manufacturing systems on automotive-styled assembly lines. The Company's common stock is listed on the New York, Chicago and Pacific Stock Exchanges and traded under the symbol WGO (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PTR Petrochina Co Ltd (ADS) 51.70 +2.33 BCS Barclays Plc (ADR) 38.95 +0.96 CVX Chevrontexaco Corp 85.60 +0.90 FNM Fannie Mae 72.71 +1.38 BAC Bank of America Corp 79.25 +0.95 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- AWE AT&T Wireless Services 9.99 +1.44 ASR Grupo Aeroport Del Surst 19.50 +1.18 ATVI Activision Inc 18.83 +1.44 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- SNE Sony Corp 38.94 +1.98 AVE Aventis 68.00 +2.84 FOX Fox Entertainment Group 29.75 +1.02 APPGY WPP Group Plc (ADR) 56.67 +2.00 CB Chubb Corp 69.35 +1.37 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- FITB Fifth Third Bancorp 58.38 -1.01 NEM Newmont Mining Corp 44.65 -1.90 LLTC Linear Technology 42.35 -1.60 MBT Mobile Telesys OJSC (ADS) 85.31 -2.14 FCX Freeport Mcmoran C&G B 38.69 -1.37 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AMAT Applied Materials Inc 23.39 -0.46 NSM National Semiconductor 40.76 -0.96 VIP Vimpel Communications (ADS)71.00 -4.95 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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