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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 01/20/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 01-20-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Guidance?
Watch List:       ELBO, VRSN, PDII, STCR
Market Sentiment: Stronger Than Expected

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      01-20-2004           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10528.66 - 71.90 10616.96 10519.49 2.28 bln   2026/1240
NASDAQ   2147.98 +  7.50  2149.85  2130.20 2.62 bln   2158/1144
S&P 100   563.75 -  0.97   565.95   562.55   Totals   4184/2384
S&P 500  1138.77 -  1.06  1142.93  1135.40
W5000   11131.32 + 15.30 11151.60 11082.78
RUS 2000  597.98 +  7.57   597.98   590.16
DJ TRANS 3020.00 - 16.30  3036.46  3006.03
VIX        15.21 +  0.21    16.13    15.09
VXO (VIX-O)14.91 -  0.36    15.83    14.91
VXN        20.49 +  0.25    22.13    20.26
Total Volume 5,234M
Total UpVol  3,384M
Total DnVol  1,802M
52wk Highs 1341
52wk Lows    12
TRIN       0.98
NAZTRIN    1.21
PUT/CALL   0.60
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Guidance?

It was all about guidance as the bluest of blue chips began
presenting their earnings. However, good news did not buy
much in the way of investor appreciation as strong earners
were pounded when good results fell short of overly
optimistic expectations.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart



It was a slow day economically with the NAHB Housing Market
Index the only regular hours report. The headline number at
68 was less than consensus at 69 and less than the 70 from
both December and November. Slower sales continue to depress
the market despite the optimistic outlooks by the builders.
With the economy recovering, interest rates low and inventory
levels still light the conditions are ripe for a spring sales
explosion but the winter weather has put sales in the deep
freeze. This would suggest a continued neutral rate decision
by the Fed next week could be the green light for another
run for the builders as investors buy the dip in advance of
the spring thaw. The worst thing that could happen for the
home builders would not be what you would expect. A surge
in the 4Q GDP, due out next week, that would suggest the
recovery is really catching fire could actually push real
interest rates up despite a Fed on hold. Rising economies
can support higher rates but those same rates could slow
home sales. Seems contrary to common sense but that is
real life. More buyers can afford homes in a roaring
economy but they have to pay more for the privilege.

MMM reported earnings with sales that reached an all time
high. They beat estimates by a penny and the shares soared
to an all time high of $86.20 before taking a significant
hit of over -$5.00 for the day. Analysts found no fault
with the earnings with margins at 20% and sales up +14%
from last year. MMM also raised its guidance for the quarter
and the year. Unfortunately that raised guidance was still
at the low end of the consensus range. Expectations for an
earnings blowout and improved guidance were just too high
it appears.

Dow component UTX reported earnings that beat the street
by +3 cents on a +19% increase in 4Q sales and guided
inline with prior estimates for 2004. UTX lost -2.70 in
early trading. Several analysts suggested UTX was over
valued at its current PE of 18 based on the lack of an
upgrade in guidance. UTX is expected to earn between $5.00
to $5.30 for 2004. Analysts were disappointed UTX only
beat by +3 cents given the weakness of the dollar. Guess
they were looking for something more in the IBM/GE range
of currency translation gains.

Another Dow component, GM, posted very strong earnings of
+$2.13 per share and profits of $1.01 billion. A strong
performance by GMAC helped the automaker. They also posted
a very strong outlook for 2004 and expects to take market
share from competitors with new models. GM spent an average
of $3,589 in incentives per car in December. GM also said
its -$18 billion pension fund problem had been completely
erased thanks to the market gains and a debt offering. This
takes a very big negative away from the GM stock. GM was
trading down on the news at the close.

Citigroup announced profits that nearly doubled last years
results and raised their dividend +14%. Citigroup posted
earnings of $4.76 billion or 91 cents per share. Analysts
had expected 90 cents. Strong growth in credit card revenue
came from 145 million card accounts. Citigroup said volume
was strong and they were looking to grow the business by
acquisitions where possible. Nothing wrong with this report
but C finished negative for the day.

INTC closed in on its lows for the month near $32 and
suggested investors were not excited about their record
earnings last week. We know it sold off on the less than
hoped for guidance and so far that selling has not slowed.

Five Dow components, excellent earnings from all on strong
sales improvements. Inline or better guidance for them all
yet all the stock prices tanked. This suggests what we all
feared that the buyers are saying great but not great enough.
Investors were quick to take profits when there was not a
short covering rush like we saw in Juniper last week.

The only stock not seeing a sell the earnings result was
IBM which three days after announcing mediocre results was
up another +1.78 on Tuesday. The reason was an announcement
they were adding +15,000 workers. While that sounds like a
prelude to a wave of new jobs when the Non Farm Payrolls
are released in two weeks it was not as positive as it
seemed on the surface. Only 4500 of those jobs will be in
the U.S. The remainder of those 15,000 jobs will be in India
and China. They did reiterate that they were bullish on the
IT market for 2004 and these hiring's would put IBM at the
highest employment level (330,000) since 1991 high of
340,000. IBM will save $168 million a year by hiring those
programmers overseas. IBM said a programmer with 3-5 years
of experience will cost them $12.50 an hour in China where
that same programmer in the states costs them $56 an hour
including benefits. If this outsourcing continues unabated
would you care to speculate on what a programmer in the
states will be making five years from now? Way less than
$56. I know programmers in Denver that were making enormous
amounts of money five years ago that are working in Taco
Bell now or have been unemployed for nearly a year because
the IT job market has collapsed.

IBM is using that cheap labor to mount an assault on MSFT.
They announced on Monday they were launching a new program
to help millions of customers migrate from Windows to Linux.
Linux is the fastest growing operating system for servers
in the world and IBM wants to keep it that way. Microsoft
is going to stop supporting Windows-NT by the end of 2004
and IBM is charging ahead with a plan to capture those
millions of users. Microsoft software has continued to get
more expensive and IBM sees this as an opportunity to take
market share. IBM will offer multiple upgrade paths and
offer classes on how to migrate. They are making these tools
available to their 90,000 partners worldwide as they begin
their push. MSFT was up +30 cents on the news despite the
announcement from the Justice Dept that MSFT had failed to
fulfill a key part of the antitrust settlement. MSFT will
announce earnings on Thursday and this could be a shift
out of those already announced and into a coming announcer.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.

The markets surged to new highs at the open once again but
the Dow was unable to hold those opening levels. The January
rally has been fueled by near record amounts of cash flowing
into the markets. According to TrimTabs $8.6 billion in
new cash came into equity funds for the fist nine days
of January. The small cap techs are by far the biggest
recipient of the cash. The Russell led the major indexes
all day as traders scrambled to find something worth
buying with hopes of big gains in 2004.

Goldman Sachs reported the results of a CIO survey just
completed where 32% of managers expected their IT spending
to rise in 2004. Of that 32% the expected rise in spending
was only estimated to be +1.5%. This is very low and does
not suggest the bullish investor sentiment has carried
through to the IT sector. Less than 1/3 expect gains and
those gains are expected to be very small. Still 58% of
those surveyed expected spending to be flat with the 4Q
and that is an implied increase since the 1Q is normally
weak. Not exactly a strong reason to invest in techs that
are up in many cases more than +100% from 2003 lows.
Merrill released a study late last week suggesting that
2004 would actually see a decline in IT services and
spending in consulting services.

After the close we saw earnings from AMD, MOT, PMCS, SAMN
and RFMD among others. Motorola beat estimates by +4 cents
with a +17 cent headline number. Cell phone sales fell -3%
because of delays in getting camera phones and other new
products to market in quantity. The did see a +64% jump
in orders during the quarter. Unfortunately the profit
margin on their phones is only 4% compared to 20% for
competitor Nokia. They raised guidance to 5-7 cents for
Q1 and analysts were expecting +5 cents. MOT traded down
slightly in after hours despite the good results.

AMD blew the doors off with its first profit in more than
two years on strong 4Q demand for memory and computer chips.
AMD said the gains were seasonal and the 1Q would be flat
to down. They still expect to post a profit for the 1Q
but after that it becomes dicey again. They said flash
memory had been strong in the 4Q but pricing pressure and
demand would make it flat in the 1Q. This was the same
guidance Intel gave on flash memory. AMD was up early on
the news but traded down as the after hours session ended.

RFMD took a hit in after hours after beating estimates by
+3 cents but then guiding down for Q1. The company was
still upbeat but a pause in demand will push estimated
Q1 earnings down to only +2 to +4 cents. Analysts had
been expecting +7 cents.

PMCS beat the street by a penny and said they were still
expecting a strong 2004. They did use the "if" word in
their guidance saying "if current trends continue" but
then that is always the implied scenario. PMCS traded
down slightly after the announcement.

SANM turned in a profit and reversed a prior loss but the
street was not happy with the results. Guidance was inline
with estimates but given the expectations for the sector
analysts were hoping for more. The consensus after the
guidance was that SANM was benefiting from a restocking
cycle and not new orders for an increase in IT spending.
David MacGregor, a research analyst for Longbow said he
surveys three dozen or so board companies each month and
he saw only a little evidence of inventory buildup from
companies like SANM.

Techs got a very late gift after the close. The Semi
Book-to-Bill came in at 1.20 and a high not seen in many
months. This would suggest a sharp increase in orders
and more confirmation that the 4Q was strong. This is a
December number but one that should negate any negatives
from some of the earning questions tonight. The futures
did not react to the B-t-B announcement but it does not
come out until the after hours stock session closes so
reaction is normally muted until the next day.

After the flurry of tech earnings after the close the
futures fell slightly. This could have been due to the
less than stellar guidance from some or just fear of the
president. The State of the Union speech tonight offers
numerous chances for a few misplaced comments to tank
various sectors depending on the initiatives mentioned.
The drug and health care sector are a favorite with
comments about lowering the cost of healthcare suggesting
profits for those companies will be lower. The energy
sector could be volatile should any sweeping suggestions
appear. Oil hit $36 a barrel today so I expect that to
be on the hit list somewhere. The speech tends to hit
every possible campaign target so nothing is sacred.
Getting out of the way in advance with your profits is
not a bad idea. This is also a very high profile event
where all the heads of government are gathered in one
place. This would be a terrorists dream target although
probably the toughest possible target considering the
security. This could have provided even more reasons
for taking some profits off the table.

The markets were far stronger today than the closing
indexes suggest. The Dow lost -71 based on drops in HON,
UTX, MMM, CAT, INTC and several others. Gains in IBM
failed to prevent the dip. The -$5 drop in MMM was a
major drag on the index. However, that Dow drop was
mostly based on those five stocks. It was not a broad
based decline. The Nasdaq closed at a new high near
2150 and the Russell gained a whopping +7.57. The S&P
was flat. However the internals tell the real story.
Volume ended strong at 5.23 billion across all exchanges.
Considering the almost complete lack of volume intraday
this is amazing and could have been option related. The
A/D line was nearly 2:1 in favor of advancers despite
the negative indexes. The new 52-week highs hit a three
month high at 1341. This was not a negative day.

The only qualifier was the strange volume, which was
very heavy at the open and the close and flat intraday.
This suggests that volume was squaring of exercised
option positions. The key will be the volume and direction
on Wednesday. Earnings are appearing faster than popped
corn in a hot skillet and there is plenty of reasons to
trade. If the volume continues tomorrow and displays
the same positive patterns then the outlook is good.
Lately volume has been increasing almost daily but we
are still stalled under 10600 on the Dow and 1161 on
the S&P. The Nasdaq and Russell are in breakout mode
and not looking back. Eventually the blue chips have
to join the party or the party is going to fade. This
is the week for it to happen and Microsoft's earnings
on Thursday could be the pivotal point. The speech is
about to start and the next 90 minutes will also be
critical for the week. Let's hope the market likes it!

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Electronics Boutique Corp. - ELBO - close: 25.70 change: +0.40

WHAT TO WATCH: ELBO couldn't quite manage a break through the top
of its October gap earlier this month, but the mild pullback
since then is finding strong support near $25, the site of the
200-dma.  This looks like a low-risk entry point for another run
at the $27.50-28.00 resistance area, with the potential for a
breakout this time, bringing the $30-31 area into play




---

Verisign Inc. - VRSN - close: 20.93 change: +1.21

WHAT TO WATCH: Breaking out over $17.50 in early January, shares
of VRSN haven't looked back since.  Tuesday's session brought
another breakout, this time over $20, which had defined the top
for most of last week.  It's aggressive to chase it higher, but
the stock looks like it could make a run at major resistance in
the $24-25 area ahead of its January 29th earnings report.



---

PDI Inc. - PDII - close: 23.95 change: -0.98

WHAT TO WATCH: Look out below!  PDII broke down under the $25
support level on Tuesday on strong volume and it looks like a
test of the 200-dma may be in the cards.  There's some potential
support near $22.50 and then it could be a swift trip down the
chart.  Best entries will be found on a failed bounce below $25,
although aggressive traders may want to wait for a break below
today's low before playing.




---

Starcraft Corp. - STCR - close: 22.30 change: -0.72

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of STCR have been in "sell the news" mode
over the past week after the company gave optimistic guidance for
2004.  First breaking the 200-dma, the stock has continued to
drop on above-average volume.  A near-term bounce could be due,
but once that fails, STCR looks destined for next solid support
in the $19-20 area.




---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

SYXI $11.60 - Semiconductor stocks are still looking strong, and
SYXI proved its worth by breaking out to new recent highs on
Tuesday.  This puts the stock on the cusp of a major breakout,
with the $15 level a viable target.  Trigger entries above
today's high, but watch for possible resistance near $12.50, the
site of the 2002 highs.

FRNT $11.50 - Still trading in a protracted downtrend, shares of
FRNT appear to be rolling over just below the 10-dma, with strong
resistance just overhead at the 200-dma.  A failed rally will
provide the best entry below that strong resistance, ahead of a
drop to next solid support near $10.

LUV $15.13 - Pardon us for picking on the airlines today, but LUV
looks even better for a downside play than FRNT, as the stock
broke to new multi-month lows today.  Trigger entries on a break
of $15 and target a drop to the $12.50 area.

FLEX $17.39 - Breaking out above $16 in early January, shares of
FLEX appear to have finished consolidating that move and today
staged a nice breakout over $17.  Look for entries on a dip and
rebound from $17, confirming it as new support.  Target a rally
towards $20 resistance.



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================


Stronger Than Expected
- J. Brown

The major averages don't tell the whole story.  The Dow Jones was
strongly red on the session after components MMM and HON both
took some big hits.  Meanwhile the NASDAQ managed another new
high closing at levels not seen in 30 months.  The strong market
internals underline the strength not shown in the closing prices.
Advancers pushed past decliners 18 to 10 on the NYSE and 2 to 1
on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was twice down volume on both
exchanges.

The selling was heaviest in the retail sector as the RLX dropped
1 percent after failing at the 380 level twice in the last three
trading days.  More sector indices were positive than negative
and leading the way were the oil services stocks with the OSX up
4.7 percent.  It's probably not a coincidence that crude oil
futures rose 87 cents to $34.87 a barrel.

The XAU gold & silver index also posted a strong bounce, up 2.44
percent as gold futures soared nearly $6 towards $413 an ounce.
As expected many of the XAU components followed suit but it
remains to be seen if this is a buy the dip opportunity or just
an oversold bounce.

The XNG natural gas index also produced a decent session with a 3
percent gain following El Paso corp. who jumped 15% after
Barron's highlighted the stock over the weekend.

Oddly enough the NWX networking index saw no profit taking after
Friday's big surge due to Juniper Network's incredible earnings
report.  Of course we'll hear from Lucent tomorrow and Nortel
Networks in a few days and investors are probably just waiting to
hear what these to networking giants have to say about their Q1
guidance.

Keep an eye on the DFI and DFX defense indices.  General Dynamics
leads off the defense sector's parade of earnings tomorrow and
we'll continue to hear from the group over the next several
sessions.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10616
52-week Low :  7416
Current     : 10528

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10536
 50-dma: 10086
200-dma:  9365

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1142
52-week Low :  788
Current     : 1138

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1129
 50-dma: 1081
200-dma: 1008

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1552

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1530
 50-dma: 1444
200-dma: 1302


-----------------------------------------------------------------

In spite of some market weakness earlier today the volatility
indices remain near their lows.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.21 +0.21
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.95 -0.32
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 20.49 +0.25


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.60      1,126,135       673,994
Equity Only    0.52        994,208       513,167
OEX            1.32         14,469        19,115
QQQ            4.75         24,131       114,718


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          77.9    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    81.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
Dow Indust.   86.7    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       87.8    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       85.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.89
10-dma: 0.97
21-dma: 0.91
55-dma: 1.03


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1804      2082
Decliners    1078      1042

New Highs     344       442
New Lows        6         3

Up Volume   1475M     1684M
Down Vol.    710M      859M

Total Vol.  2197M     2561M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 01/13/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

We don't have much more to report on for commercial traders this
week other than slightly increased positions on both sides of the
fence.  Small traders followed suit.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
12/16/03      448,103   460,670    12,567     1.4%
12/22/03      400,066   405,240    (5,174)   (0.6%)
01/06/04      403,721   408,729    (5,008)   (0.6%)
01/13/04      405,558   411,361    (5,803)   (0.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/16/03      172,947   113,704    59,243    20.7%
12/22/03      147,537    81,596    65,941    28.8%
01/06/04      142,844    83,518    59,326    26.2
01/13/04      149,057    90,571    58,486    24.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

The e-minis are seeing more action than the full contracts
represented above.  Commercial traders added more than 20K
contracts to both longs and shorts but they remain net bearish.
Small traders were more enthusiastic with a large increase in
long positions, outpacing the increase in short positions.
Contrarians might view this as a bearish development.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
12/16/03      330,273   361,316    (31,043)   (4.5%)
12/22/03      128,801   213,021    (84,220)  (24.6%)
01/06/04      175,489   240,865    (65,376)  (15.7%)
01/13/04      196,858   263,845    (66,987)  (14.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/16/03     177,193     73,694   103,499    41.3%
12/22/03     125,248     43,482    81,766    48.5%
01/06/04     139,433     51,909    87,524    45.7%
01/13/04     191,241     62,711   128,530    50.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Ho-hum...commercial traders are still asleep at the wheel
in the NDX futures.  Meanwhile small traders have reduced
their outstanding shorts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/16/03       61,343     73,153   (11,810) ( 8.8%
12/22/03       40,277     36,452     3,825    5.0%
01/06/04       42,892     37,801     5,091    6.3%
01/13/04       41,829     38,547     3,282    4.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
12/16/03       28,676    15,197    13,479    30.7%
12/22/03       22,656    14,544     8,112    21.8%
01/06/04        8,035    17,911   ( 9,876)  (38.1%)
01/13/04        9,705    12,539   ( 2,834)  (12.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

There isn't much to report in the DJ futures either.
It looks like commercials are just shuffling money around but
the net result was a slightly more bullish stance on the Dow.
In mirror-like precision small traders have slowly become more
bearihs.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
12/16/03       23,509    13,880    9,629      25.8%
12/22/03       14,088     9,998    4,090      17.0%
01/06/04       15,697     9,497    6,200      24.6%
01/13/04       16,501     8,724    7,777      30.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
12/16/03        9,497    19,633  (10,136)   (34.8%)
12/22/03        6,915     8,983  ( 2,068)   (13.0%)
01/06/04        5,713     8,105  ( 2,392)   (17.3%)
01/13/04        6,496     9,970  ( 3,474)   (21.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

----------------------------------------------------------


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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 01-20-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments:  ORB, SPIL

Closed Plays:      MXO

Stock Splits:      OVTI

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

ORB - long
Adjust from $12.25 up to $12.60

---

SPIL - tech stock long
Adjust from $5.59 up to $5.69


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

Maxtor Corp - MXO - close: 12.31 change: +0.33 stop: 11.68

As previously discussed we are closing the MXO play per Tuesday's
closing price.  Shares had continued their bounce from Thursday's
low and reclaimed the $12.00 mark.  The good news is that MXO
looks poised for a strong breakout above the $12.50 level.  The
bad news is that rival Seagate Technologies (STX) announced
earnings after the bell tonight and missed.  That could weigh on
shares of MXO tomorrow.  Of course the real event is MXO's own
earnings report tomorrow after the close of trading.

Picked on Jan 4th  at $11.68
Gain since picked:     +0.63
Earnings Date       01/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    4.5 million




=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------

OVTI focuses on a 2-for-1 split

Early this morning OmniVision Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ:OVTI)
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock
split to be paid as a stock dividend.

The payable date for the stock split or distribution date is
February 17th, 2004.  The shareholder record date is January 30th.

This is OVTI's first stock split.


About the company:
OmniVision Technologies designs, develops and markets high
performance, highly integrated and cost efficient semiconductor
image sensor devices. Our main product, an image sensing device
called the CameraChip(TM), is used to capture an image in a wide
variety of consumer and commercial mass-market applications
including digital still cameras, cell phones and video game
consoles. OmniVision believes that its highly integrated
CameraChips enable device manufacturers to build camera products
that are smaller, less complex and more reliable, cost less, and
consume less power than cameras using either traditional CCDs or
multiple-chip CMOS image sensors. OmniVision believes that it
supplies one of the most highly integrated single-chip CMOS image
sensor solutions available today. OmniVision's CameraChips are
currently used in a number of consumer and commercial applications
such as digital still and video cameras, cell phones, personal
digital assistants, personal computer cameras, toys and games,
including interactive video games, and security surveillance
cameras.  (Source: Company Press Release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CHL     China Mobile Ltd           17.81     +0.81
SC      Shell Transport & Trading  40.36     +0.54
CVX     ChevronTexaco              86.03     +1.31
BAC     Bank of America            80.07     +1.05
BAY     Bayer Aktien               31.94     +1.17
IMO     Imperial Oil Ltd           48.17     +2.41

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

THC     Tenet Healthcare           18.20     +1.26
AMTD    Ameritrade Holding         17.26     +1.89
EP      El Paso Corp                9.67     +1.27
NITE    Knight Trading Group       16.85     +1.25
PWER    Power-One Inc              14.26     +1.37
OPWV    Openwave Systems           16.84     +1.61

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

IBM     Intl Business Machines     97.10     +1.78
PKX     Posco                      36.98     +3.17
AET     Aetna Inc                  71.97     +2.07
MERQ    Mercury Interactive        54.00     +2.30
CHKP    Check Point Software       21.61     +1.66
BCR     C.R.Bard                   88.93     +1.83
VRSN    Verisign Inc               20.93     +1.21

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MMM     3M Co                      80.41     -5.07
ITW     Illinois Tool Works        81.05     -3.48
INFY    Infosys Tech               88.50     -2.00
PH      Parker Hannifin            57.77     -2.92
SRCL    Stericycle Inc             43.45     -1.51
ASVI    A.S.V. Inc                 27.84     -2.52

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SI      Siemens Aktien             83.98     -1.12
NTLI    NTL Inc                    68.02     -3.28
TGI     Triumph Group Inc          37.25     -1.45
WFMI    Whole Foods Market         68.45     -1.47
VTR     Ventas                     23.16     -0.17
CBI     Chicago Bridge & Iron      29.90     -0.32
BFAM    Bright Horizons            44.68     -1.42


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=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
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staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
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factors beyond our control.

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

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