PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 01-22-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Volume Still Strong Watch List: SBUX, JCOM, NSM, SUNW Market Sentiment: Looking Tired ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 01-22-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10623.18 - 0.44 10660.88 10607.40 2.27 bln 1683/1558 NASDAQ 2119.01 - 23.40 2152.12 2119.01 2.36 bln 1216/2013 S&P 100 566.21 - 2.43 569.84 565.71 Totals 2899/3571 S&P 500 1143.94 - 3.68 1150.51 1143.01 W5000 11164.78 - 37.80 11232.92 11160.00 RUS 2000 591.73 - 5.75 600.61 591.53 DJ TRANS 3080.32 + 16.70 3090.07 3063.73 VIX 14.71 + 0.37 14.87 14.01 VXO (VIX-O)15.01 + 0.58 15.34 14.39 VXN 21.74 + 1.03 21.78 20.42 Total Volume 4,953M Total UpVol 1,642M Total DnVol 3,218M Total Adv 3339 Total Dcl 4007 52wk Highs 1040 52wk Lows 8 TRIN 1.52 NAZTRIN 1.41 PUT/CALL 0.92 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Volume Still Strong Volume on Thursday was nearly five billion across all markets and stretched the string of high volume days to 13. Declining volume was unfortunately the highest since Sept-24th and twice the up volume. Still the Dow held its ground and clung to its 52-week highs. The Nasdaq saw some profit taking in front of Microsoft earnings but even that was muted. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart The economics were about as mixed as the markets. The Jobless Claims fell -1,000 to 341,000 and pushed the four-week average to a new post-recession low of 345,000. Analysts had wanted to see a little bigger drop in claims but had hedged their bets with a consensus estimate of 349,000. Obviously they were pleased as the numbers show a consistent improvement although very slow decrease. Continued claims under 350K have in the past led to an increase in jobs by about +150K per month. With the Nonfarm Payrolls due out in two weeks hopes are going to be running high. Those claims may be about to increase according to the Monthly Mass Layoffs which came in today at 1,929. These layoffs will cut 192,633 workers and was up substantially from the 1,438 and 138,543 workers from last month. This is a December number and I suggested last month we could see an increase at year end and into January as companies trim the sails going into the new year. Manufacturing still accounted for the majority of the cuts with 34% of the total. This is a trend that should continue as long as jobs continue to be outsourced overseas. There have been several high profile comments recently that suggest the "lost" jobs from December's Jobs report will be found. Fed President Bob McTeer said he was shocked and went on record that he felt they would be found in the January report. Treasury Secretary John Snow echoed those exact comments this week that the report "must" be in error and the inaccuracies will be corrected and the lost jobs found by January's report. This is just a sample of the posturing we are seeing and it suggests the jobs will be found regardless of whether they exist of not. It is an election year. With the economics mixed the markets were left to trade on stock news. The biggest news of the morning was news of a massive layoff by Eastman Kodak. They are cutting -15,000 workers over the next three years as they close plants and reduce manufacturing square footage by about one third. The company is moving out of traditional film and into the digital camera market. Investors liked the announcement and pushed the stock up +10% to $31.02 and a six month high. This helped the Dow overcome weakness from INTC, T, DD, KO and Boeing. EK gained +3.49 and the next largest Dow gainer was CAT at +0.60. Lucent was the target of some serious selling on volume of more than 200 million shares after Smith Barney cut them to a sell. Smith Barney said traditional wireline suppliers had seen their stocks rise well above fundamentals in the last month and were due for a correction. The analyst said capex spending in the sector would likely be flat with declining spending in the switched circuit markets being offset by increases in VOIP equipment and routers. AT&T complicated the picture for the telecom sector when it announced earnings that were soft from weak customer demand and heavy pricing pressure. AT&T said it saw further sales declines for 2004. Revenues dropped -12.8% as long distance continued to be eroded by consumers switching to LD free cell phones and VOIP. Consumer revenues fell -18.9%. T fell -$.85 cents on the news and below its $21 support level to rest on the 50 DMA at 20.39. After the close the 800lb gorilla announced earnings and the futures market dropped sharply. Microsoft reported earnings of 34 cents and beat estimates by +4 cents but nobody seemed to care. After hours investors keyed on the 14 cent headline number and recoiled from the 20 cent charge for stock based compensation. This charge was well over any estimates at nearly 60% of gross earnings. Other problems appeared to be a drop in subscription revenue and a lower unearned revenue number. Revenue was up slightly over the prior quarter and Microsoft said PC demand continued to exceed expectations. They also said they were seeing early signs of an IT recovery. They guided slightly up for the current quarter which is normally unheard of. Despite the good guidance the number crunchers panicked and the stock sold off slightly in after hours trading. From the action in the futures you would have thought they had missed their numbers with the S&P futures dropping -4.00 on the news. This was a severe over reaction to the -50 cent drop in the stock. Part of that futures drop was attributed to some guidance from other reporting techs. KLAC beat the street by +3 cents and guided higher for the current quarter. They said orders were up +50% from the prior quarter and felt they were in the early stages of a sustainable upturn. They felt the orders for the 1Q would increase by +15%. They beat the street and raised guidance but the stock fell over -$1.00 in after hours trading. MCHP announced earnings inline with estimates and guided higher for the current quarter. They said their book-to-bill ratio was 1.26 and raised their dividend. They said sales of microcontrollers were at record levels. The stock was trading down over -$1 in after hours. MCHP was one of the three stocks rated five stars on Wednesday by S&P. (INTC and TXN) They suggested each had the potential for another +25% gain. MSCC beat estimates by +2 cents and raised guidance. Income increased +50% over the fourth quarter and margins increased substantially. Book to bill was only +1.06 and sales only increased +4%. While it appeared great for the company investors were not as impressed. The stock was trading down in after hours. GNSS beat the street's estimates of +3 cents with a huge jump to +8 cents profit. Sales were up +17% over the prior quarter with gross margins increasing to 39.6%. Great news but they had the misfortune of guiding inline with estimates and the stock traded down in after hours. AMGN accidentally released their earning on their website just before the market closed and dropped substantially due to missing estimates by -2 cents. They closed at $61.47 and well off their $63.46 intraday high. The earnings miss was due to rising expenses and higher marketing costs to fend off new competition from Abbot on Enbrel. Corning posted earnings inline with estimates but the big news was surging demand for LCD display panels used in PCs and laptops. GLW said it expected to sell out of its LCD glass despite boosting output to meet demand. This was the second consecutive quarterly profit in more than two years. You guessed it, GLW traded down in after hours. Volume is strong, tech earnings are great and guidance is mostly positive but techs are retreating. Good earnings are being met with selling more often than not. PC sales are now projected to be double digits through June (per MSFT) and chip companies are trending flat to down. Small caps have been on a roll but sold off -5.75 today. Seeing a trend here? This is normal post earnings depression like we have not seen since the Internet bubble. We had a massive earnings run on extremely optimistic expectations and those have generally been met. Investors are simply taking their profits. This is not the end of the world but it may be the end of the vertical gains without any new catalyst. Russell Chart S&P Chart The markets are very extended and several critical points have been reached. The Dow hit 10660 today and within 13 points of the 2002 resistance highs at 10673. The S&P hit 1150.51 and only -1.50 points away from a +50% rebound off the Oct-2002 lows. 1160 is the 50% retracement of the drop from the Jan-2000 highs. 1173 is the 2002 resistance highs. Getting crowded over 1150. The Russell 2000 hit 600.61 today and while that is still -14 points from the all time high in March 2000 it has been the unofficial target for over a month. The Nasdaq has failed at 2150 four times now and despite great earnings is threatening to retest 2100. While these technicals tests are critical they are all just signs of a tired earnings run. The Nasdaq had no trouble breaking 2000 and the Dow is now well over 10000 on the strength of these expectations. It should not be surprising to see some profit taking and consolidation once those expectations were met. Distribution or consolidation? Ask me again in a month. The very strong volume patterns suggest we are seeing some distribution at critical market levels. The down volume is increasing but we are not yet seeing any real selling imbalances. The new highs were over 1000 again for the fourth consecutive today and showing no signs of retreat. Until those numbers decline substantially we are just consolidating. The last time they were below 800 on the new 52-week highs was the week before Christmas. While there is still significant resistance above us there is also significant support below. The Nasdaq spend most of the last two weeks fighting to get over 2100 and stay there and it is going to take a lot more selling than we saw today to fall below the 2085 level that we saw during that fight. Should that level fail the 50 dma is right at 2000 and that has been support since March. The Dow has successfully defended 10500 numerous times and 10400 more than once. The 50 dma is currently at 10100 and that is more than -500 points away from today's close. The S&P has very strong support at 1115-1120 and is well above the 50 dma at 1085. What all this gibberish means is that we could see several days of selling without any serious harm. The problem as I see it now is the lack of a motivating factor. Earnings are coming in as expected and more than 50% of the S&P will have reported by tomorrow. There should be no more big upside surprises. The Fed meets on Tuesday and the odds are good they will begin to condition the markets for a rate hike. Nobody expects a hike before the elections but they will likely begin to set the stage. This could put pressure on the markets through Wednesday. I believe we will see a gap down on Friday that will be bought by traders looking for an entry point. That bounce could fade by days end and leave us range bound through the Fed meeting which ends on Wednesday. Once any reaction to the Fed meeting is over I would look for a ramp into the Jobs report on Jan-6th. We have been virtually assured that it will show positive job gains. Potholes or stepping stones into that Jobs report will be the GDP due out next Friday and the ISM on Monday the 2nd. The big challenge will be the GDP. The official estimate is for +4.5% growth for the 4Q. The whisper number is already +6.5%. This is a prime opportunity for a disappointment. With the recent earnings and sales increases for the 4Q I suspect it will be over 4.5% but not as high as the whisper. Since the Fed will undoubtedly have the GDP numbers during their meeting any overly strong number will influence their rate stance. It is a catch-22. An inline number will be seen as pleasing to the Fed but disappointing by traders. A blowout number could cause a Fed reaction which would disappoint traders. The best possible number would be something just over 5% so the Fed is pleased but not scared and traders can be pleased but not ecstatic. Friday is going to be a tossup and a chance for traders to begin positioning themselves for one more week of very intensive earnings followed by a week of intensive economics. After that it is time to coast until the April earnings run begins. Now, that chapter in this investing saga will be very interesting as we get to see if this months guidance lived up to the hype. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 35.73 change: +0.73 WHAT TO WATCH: As though the law of gravity had been repealed, SBUX continues notching new all-time highs and delivered another one today as investors gave their approval of last night's earnings report. The stock is a bit extended right now, but pullbacks near the bottom of the rising channel (near $33) should provide solid long-term entry points into this consistent performer. --- j2 Global Communications - JCOM - close: 25.25 change: -1.70 WHAT TO WATCH: No matter how you slice, JCOM appears to be in trouble. After the recent rally failure near $28.75, selling pressure has really been picking up over the past two days, perhaps in anticipation/reaction to news that the company is going to acquire The Electric Mail Company. With today's break back under the 50-dma, it looks like a return to the December lows near $22.50 is in the cards, with a solid shot at breaking down below $20. Use an entry trigger under $25. --- National Semiconductor - NSM - close: 37.95 change: -1.73 WHAT TO WATCH: That didn't take long. It was just yesterday that we listed NSM on the Radar Screen as a potential breakdown candidate, where the 100-dma was the line in the sand. The bears won that battle today, and the stock closed right at the low of the day. Continuation to the downside will bring next support at $36 into play enroute to strong support near $32. --- Sun Microsystems - SUNW - close: 5.52 change: -014 WHAT TO WATCH: Investors gave their approval to SUNW's earnings report by driving the stock right up to strong resistance in the $5.60 area, but it appears that it was too far too fast and it is time for a bit of retracement. That gap down to the $5.00 level is just begging to be filled in and this is a good place to enter ahead of that decline. Use a tight stop just above today's intraday high. =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== CSC $45.61 - Along with much in the technology sector, CSC has been looking strong lately and Thursday's strong rally brought the stock within striking distance of a breakout to new recent highs. Use a trigger over $46 and target strong resistance near $50. JNJ $53.05 - Finally breaking from its year-long downtrend, JNJ is starting to look much more healthy. After finding support at the 50-dma, the stock broke out over the 200-dma over the past couple days and now looks headed for strong resistance in the $57-58 area. The best point for new entries will be on a pullback to confirm new support near the $52 former resistance level. BBY $52.88 - Despite today's rally in the Retail sector, BBY continues to look sickly. The stock is rolling over below the 50-dma and with daily Stochastics and MACD following suit, it looks like a good candidate to drop in the weeks ahead. Use a trigger below the 20-dma and target the 200-dma just above $47. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Looking Tired - J. Brown The rallies in the major indices are truly starting to look tired. For the last three or four days we've done nothing but go sideways as investors try and digest the deluge of earnings news. If the markets can rally tomorrow they may be able to stretch the winning streak to nine weeks in a row, a feat not seen since 1989 (on the S&P). However, that all depends on how investors choose to interpret Microsoft's mixed earnings news that came out tonight after the closing bell. The market's exhaustion is becoming more apparent in its internals. The NYSE saw a very narrow race in the A/D line but advancing stocks nosed past decliners 1443 to 1419. The NASDAQ, which saw the brunt of the selling today, watched losers beat up winners almost 20 to 11. Down volume overpowered up volume on both exchanges and total volume was heavy yet again. As a matter of fact some of the discussion among traders is how all this heavy volume smells like distribution (smart money taking profits and selling their winners to retail investors). Despite the weakness today the major averages are still in a strong up trend. The question is whether or not investors are once again ready to buy the dip or wait for a pull back in hopes of a better entry point. One sector really seeing a lot of profit taking is the disk drives sector. The DDX has fallen strongly for two days in a row after STX offered its earnings warning mid-week. The group looks poised for more weakness tomorrow and the DDX doesn't have any support until the 130 level. The GHA hardware index has also fallen under profit taking and the index broke support at 260 today while its MACD indicator suggest a sell signal will appear very soon. The Internets and software stocks have held up better than their hardware-related cousins. However, everyone is watching the semiconductors. The SOX could be in bull flag consolidation but the index looks poised for more weakness tomorrow and its MACD also looks pretty weak. Not surprising is the pull back in the NWX networking index. The whole group has been white-hot since the new year and was way overdue for a bit of selling. Another group that's been super strong was the broker-dealers but the XBD finally felt some profit taking today as well. Hmm... I'm also noticing what could be short-term double-tops in the DRG drug index and the OIX oil index. There's no correlation between the two other than a similar chart pattern. We'll see if there's any follow through on today's failed rallies. The best performing sector today was the XAL airlines index. The XAL added 4% after AMR, the world's largest airline, jumped almost 16% on a better than expected earnings report. Also notable today was the failed rally in the XAU gold & silver index. The entire group posted an oversold bounce earlier in the week but that bounce might be failing. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10660 52-week Low : 7416 Current : 10623 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10543 50-dma: 10129 200-dma: 9400 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1150 52-week Low : 788 Current : 1143 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1133 50-dma: 1085 200-dma: 1010 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 795 Current : 1530 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1536 50-dma: 1448 200-dma: 1307 ----------------------------------------------------------------- As expected the volatility indices bounced today but not by much as the selling was mild across most of the market indices. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.71 +0.37 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 15.12 +0.69 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 21.74 +1.03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.92 886,395 812,495 Equity Only 0.74 783,191 581,852 OEX 1.50 14,300 24,419 QQQ 10.51 23,329 245,232 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 78.4 + 1 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 80.0 - 1 Bull Confirmed Dow Indust. 93.3 + 6 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 88.6 + 1 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 87.0 + 2 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.00 10-dma: 1.06 21-dma: 0.97 55-dma: 1.05 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1443 1138 Decliners 1420 1960 New Highs 320 290 New Lows 7 5 Up Volume 846M 681M Down Vol. 1369M 1589M Total Vol. 2228M 2332M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 01/13/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 We don't have much more to report on for commercial traders this week other than slightly increased positions on both sides of the fence. Small traders followed suit. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 12/16/03 448,103 460,670 12,567 1.4% 12/22/03 400,066 405,240 (5,174) (0.6%) 01/06/04 403,721 408,729 (5,008) (0.6%) 01/13/04 405,558 411,361 (5,803) (0.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 12/16/03 172,947 113,704 59,243 20.7% 12/22/03 147,537 81,596 65,941 28.8% 01/06/04 142,844 83,518 59,326 26.2 01/13/04 149,057 90,571 58,486 24.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 The e-minis are seeing more action than the full contracts represented above. Commercial traders added more than 20K contracts to both longs and shorts but they remain net bearish. Small traders were more enthusiastic with a large increase in long positions, outpacing the increase in short positions. Contrarians might view this as a bearish development. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 12/16/03 330,273 361,316 (31,043) (4.5%) 12/22/03 128,801 213,021 (84,220) (24.6%) 01/06/04 175,489 240,865 (65,376) (15.7%) 01/13/04 196,858 263,845 (66,987) (14.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 12/16/03 177,193 73,694 103,499 41.3% 12/22/03 125,248 43,482 81,766 48.5% 01/06/04 139,433 51,909 87,524 45.7% 01/13/04 191,241 62,711 128,530 50.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Ho-hum...commercial traders are still asleep at the wheel in the NDX futures. Meanwhile small traders have reduced their outstanding shorts. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 12/16/03 61,343 73,153 (11,810) ( 8.8% 12/22/03 40,277 36,452 3,825 5.0% 01/06/04 42,892 37,801 5,091 6.3% 01/13/04 41,829 38,547 3,282 4.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 12/16/03 28,676 15,197 13,479 30.7% 12/22/03 22,656 14,544 8,112 21.8% 01/06/04 8,035 17,911 ( 9,876) (38.1%) 01/13/04 9,705 12,539 ( 2,834) (12.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL There isn't much to report in the DJ futures either. It looks like commercials are just shuffling money around but the net result was a slightly more bullish stance on the Dow. In mirror-like precision small traders have slowly become more bearihs. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 12/16/03 23,509 13,880 9,629 25.8% 12/22/03 14,088 9,998 4,090 17.0% 01/06/04 15,697 9,497 6,200 24.6% 01/13/04 16,501 8,724 7,777 30.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 12/16/03 9,497 19,633 (10,136) (34.8%) 12/22/03 6,915 8,983 ( 2,068) (13.0%) 01/06/04 5,713 8,105 ( 2,392) (17.3%) 01/13/04 6,496 9,970 ( 3,474) (21.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 01-22-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: None Stock Splits: ACV, HCP, PII Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= None ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- ACV washes up a 3-for-2 stock split Early this morning Alberto-Culver Company (NYSE:ACV) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 43 percent increase in its quarterly cash dividend and a 3-for-2 stock split. The cash dividend is being raised from 10.5 cents to 15 cents a share per quarter. However, it looks like the cash dividend is being paid post-split so that brings it back to 10 cents per share. The dividend payable date is February 20th, 2004 for shareholders on record as of February 2nd. The 3-for-2 stock split will give one additional share for every two share held. The distribution date is February 20th for shareholders on record as of February 2nd. About the company: Alberto-Culver Company manufactures, distributes and markets leading personal care products including Alberto VO5, St. Ives and TRESemme in the United States and internationally. Its Pro-Line International unit is the second largest producer in the world of products for the ethnic hair care market. Sally Beauty Company is the world's number one marketer of professional beauty care products through its chain of domestic and international Sally stores. Beauty Systems Group is a network of stores and professional sales consultants selling exclusive professional beauty care brands such as Matrix, Redken, Paul Mitchell, Graham Webb and Sebastian to salon owners, salon professionals and franchisees. (Source: Company Press Release) --- HCP announces a 2-for-1 stock split Early this morning Health Care Property Investors Inc. (NYSE:HCP) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. The split will take effect as a 100 percent stock dividend. The payable date should be March 1st, 2004 for shareholders on record as of February 4th. Post-split the company will have about 131 million shares outstanding. HCP's board also approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.835 per share on a pre-split basis. The payable date for the cash dividend will be February 19th for shareholders on record as of February 4th. About the company: Health Care Property Investors, Inc. is a self-administered equity real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests directly or through joint ventures in health care facilities. As of September 30, 2003, the company's portfolio of 446 properties in 43 states consisted of 31 hospitals, 175 long-term care facilities, 124 retirement and assisted living facilities, 85 medical office buildings and 31 other health care facilities. (Source: Company Press Release) --- Polaris (PII) drives a 2-for-1 stock split Late this afternoon Polaris Industries Inc (NYSE:PII) announced that its Board of Directors had declared a 48 percent increase to its quarterly cash dividend and a 2-for-1 stock split. The cash dividend will be raised to $0.46 and payable on a pre- split basis to shareholder on record as of February 2nd, 2004. The payout date for the dividend is February 17th. The 2-for-1 stock split will take place as a 100 percent stock dividend. The distribution date will be March 8th, 2004 for shareholders on record as of March 1st. Post-split PII will have about 43.4 million shares outstanding. About the company: Polaris is the recognized leader in the snowmobile industry; one of the largest manufacturers of all terrain vehicles (ATVs) in the world; and a leading manufacturer of personal watercraft. Victory motorcycles, established in 1998, represent the first all-new American-made motorcycle in nearly 60 years, and are rapidly making impressive in-roads into the cruiser motorcycle marketplace. Polaris also enhances the riding experience with a complete line of Pure Polaris apparel, accessories and parts, available at Polaris dealerships. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change FNM Fannie Mae 79.35 +3.68 MER Merrill Lynch 60.13 +0.53 FRE Freddie Mac 64.14 +0.93 CAH Cardinal Health 63.03 +3.18 MFC Manulife Financial Corp 35.35 +0.53 WLP Wellpoint Health Network 103.22 +2.73 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- AMR AMR Corp 16.91 +2.36 BSG Bisys Group 17.79 +2.48 SWC Stillwater Mining Co 12.78 +1.74 ECLP Eclipsys Corp 14.70 +2.83 MTEX Mannatech Inc 14.75 +1.59 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- UNH UnitedHealth Group 60.70 +2.26 AVE Aventis 71.71 +3.21 EBAY eBay Corp 69.32 +4.94 DNA Genentech Inc 95.94 +1.54 FRX Forest Labs 75.45 +2.98 BSX Boston Scientific 39.29 +1.36 TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical 61.00 +2.24 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AMGN Amgen Inc 61.47 -1.34 WYE Wyeth 42.28 -2.37 SLE Sara Lee Corp 20.46 -1.04 APD Air Products & Chemicals 49.95 -2.34 UB UnionBancal 54.84 -3.15 SNDK SanDisk Corp 59.75 -9.84 PPP Pogo Producing Co 45.25 -1.30 PFGC Performance Food Group 31.20 -6.08 UGI UGI Corp 32.37 -1.37 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- LRCX Lam Research Corp 32.02 -1.63 PMI The PMI Group 39.86 -1.64 FII Federated Investors 30.98 -1.02 CTB Cooper Tire & Rubber Co 21.60 -1.46 MSA Mine Safety Appliance 86.50 -4.89 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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