PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 02-03-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Hope Minus Worry Equals Stagnation Watch List: CMX, ABT, JCOM, BRKS Market Sentiment: Mixed Markets ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 02-03-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10505.18 + 6.00 10528.96 10457.11 1.82 bln 1414/1427 NASDAQ 2066.21 + 3.06 2071.44 2057.33 1.83 bln 1404/1635 S&P 100 563.36 + 0.60 563.69 560.89 Totals 2818/3062 S&P 500 1136.03 + 0.77 1137.44 1131.33 RUS 2000 579.15 - 1.39 581.19 578.29 DJ TRANS 2851.39 - 16.63 2880.30 2851.03 VIX 17.34 + 0.23 17.78 17.17 VXO 17.06 + 0.19 17.72 16.92 VXN 26.30 + 0.49 26.31 25.66 Total Volume 4,033M Total UpVol 1,644M Total DnVol 2,249M 52wk Highs 442 52wk Lows 13 TRIN 1.34 PUT/CALL 0.70 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Hope Minus Worry Equals Stagnation Traders today could easily identify the hopes and worries that affected markets, but had more difficulty predicting which would most fan market behavior. By the end of the day, the two revealed themselves to be equally matched, with markets stagnating near Monday's closing levels in a boring session that seemed to go on and on and on. The Dow closed up 6 points, the Nasdaq 3.06, and the SPX 0.77. Adv:dec ratios stood at 17:16 for the NYSE-traded issues and 15:17 for the Nasdaq-traded issues, with down volume ahead of up volume on both indices. A high TRIN persisted all day, indicating selling pressure, but there was no follow-through on that pressure except in specific sectors. Advancing sectors included the SOX, gaining 0.49 percent; the Natural Gas Index, gaining 0.51 percent; the Utility Index; gaining 0.57 percent; the Pharmaceutical Index, gaining 0.70 percent; and the Dow Jones Home Construction Index, climbing 1.57 percent. Declining sectors included the Oil Service Sector Index, falling 1.20 percent; the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Index, falling 1.99 percent; and the Airline Index, declining a steeper 2.92 percent. Autos fell as January sales reports trickled in. Ford (F) reported a 5 percent decline in sales from year-ago level, with the decline in line with expectations, according to some. GM reported that January sales fell 2 percent, with expectations having been for an increase in sales. Ford fell 1.65 percent on strong volume and GM declined 1.72 percent on almost double average daily volume. Where prompted the hope today? Hope arose from the CSCO earnings due after the bell, with that hope fanned by some CSCO suppliers and competitors having reported good news during this earning season. With memories of other post-CSCO-earnings rallies, those hopes burned bright. After the bell, CSCO reported Q2 net sales of $5.4 billion against expectations of $5.2-5.3, depending on the source. Headlines announce that the company expects Q3 sales of $5.45-5.56 billion. CSCO reported Q2 earnings per share of $0.18 GAAP, with expectations being for $0.17. As Jonathan Levinson pointed out on the Market Monitor after hours, however, that $0.18 was before an accounting charge. CNBC trumpeted CEO John Chamber's statement that it was "clear that the global economy is improving." However, CNBC commentators also mentioned FDRY's pummeling the day after it reported in-line expectations, with FDRY considered a lesser competitor of CSCO's. At the time of this writing, CSCO traded at $25.17, down $1.24 from the 4:00 close, but be careful of trusting what you see in after-hours trading periods. Analysts will be paying particular attention to margins, for example, and tomorrow morning should see a slew of statements, either negative or positive, from those analysts. Cramer was already characterizing Chambers' statements as more cautious than Juniper's CEO's, and if that attitude carries through to other market watchers, CSCO may indeed trade lower. Tuesday's worries proved equally easy to identify. Concerns about the budget-deficit, the dollar's weakness ahead of this week's G7 meeting in Florida, the discovery of a ricin-laced envelope in a U.S. Senate office, the timing of rate hikes and their likely impact on interest-rate-sensitive sectors, and sector downgrades all worked to dampen those brightly burning hopes. Bear Stearns downgraded the U.S. machinery sector due to the specter of higher interest rates and the reality of a slowdown in new orders in January, with Caterpillar (CAT) and Honeywell (HON) declining 0.58 percent and 1.33 percent, respectively. Goldman Sachs downgraded the semiconductor sector to a neutral rating from its previous attractive rating, and also downgraded some semiconductor companies on valuation concerns. Among Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA-Tencor (KLAC) and Novellus Systems (NVLS), all subjects of the GS downgrade, only NVLS ended lower on the day, however, as the SOX recouped some of its recent losses. Other worries cropped up during the day. The Fed's Bank of Chicago President Michael Moskow spoke before a Chamber of Commerce in South Bend, Indiana, reportedly saying that U.S. economic slack might continue for some time and that the job market remained a key area of weakness. At 10:00, the release of the Challenger report revealed that U.S. layoff announcements were up 26 percent in January. Challenger says that January always sees layoffs accelerate, a point Jim Brown has made in his commentaries, too, but this doesn't engender much faith in a stronger jobs number on Friday. Weakness in SOHU, a Chinese Internet-related stock, after its earnings report may have hit AMZN, too, dropping the company's stock more than 3 percent and the INX, the CBOE Internet Index, 1.60 percent. The worries couldn't entirely dampen the CSCO-inflamed hopes, though. The day might have been much different without those hopes. During the overnight session, the Nikkei set the tone for a negative open with an early heart-stopping plunge almost 300 points from the day's high. Plummeting from 10,800 toward 10,500 support in early trading, the Nikkei managed to claw its way back to a 10,641.92 close, but still closed lower by 134.81 points or 1.25 percent. Various forces led to that decline, including worries over the dollar's further slippage against the yen, reports of new deaths due to avian flu, and the typical February pattern that sees Japanese banks sell some of their stock holdings. News of the ricin-laced envelope found in a U.S. Senate office began to circulate during that overnight session, too. European markets also helped set the stage for a lower open, with the FTSE 100 down 0.18 percent, the CAC 40 down 0.83 percent, and the DAX down 0.95 percent as the U.S. markets opened. When our markets steadied, so did European markets. All erased some of those early losses, but only the FTSE closed in positive territory. Not being a tech-heavy or export-reliant index, the FTSE 100 outperformed the others in afternoon trade, climbing off its midday low and closing up 9.20 points or 0.21 percent, but just under 4400 resistance. The CAC 40 saw a late-day climb that erased some of its losses, but it still closed down 0.73 percent and below the day's two resistance levels at 3640 and 3660. The DAX closed down 0.35 percent, but also closed below the day's resistance, at 4060. Before the bell-earnings included reports from Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Spring FON (FON) and Sprint PCS (PCS), with each beating expectations by 2 cents, according to one report, but those reports didn't do much to prop up the markets. CL closed higher by 3 percent, FON dropped 0.28 percent, and PCS dropped 1.33 percent, each moving on big volume. That's what happened today. What's likely to happen tomorrow and the rest of the week? If GM and CSCO after-hours trading can be trusted, we could see a down day tomorrow, with both trading lower as this report was prepared. GM announced this afternoon that it had received a Wells notice from the SEC, with its CEO and CFO reportedly now expected to face civil charges due to possible problems with sales practices and disclosures. However, not putting much faith in what I see after-hours, I think it remains possible that many indices may remain in a holding pattern ahead of Friday's unemployment and nonfarm payrolls numbers. Let's take a look at several charts to see what would have to occur to change that holding pattern. Jeff Bailey will be covering the indices in more detail in his report, so this will be an overview only, and one that's complicated by the fact that my charting service was not delivering daily charts as this report was prepared. I've switched to 720-minute ones, but the charting service balked at following those back past October, too. I've removed the moving averages, as they're erroneous. The Dow rises off last week's low in a pattern that resembles a bear-flag climb, with that bear-flag climb possibly forming the right shoulder of a H&S formation. Even if that formation is valid and is eventually confirmed, the completion of the pattern might require a day or two for prices to round over into that right shoulder. Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow: Note the confluence of the H&S neckline and top-line support from the Dow's former regression channel, however. Bears will need to exert strong downward pressure to break through that converging support. RSI and stochastics already reveal a propensity to turn up and the MACD histogram has stopped declining. This remains a bearish formation of a type that was once considered reliable, but lingering bullish fervor could keep this one from confirming, just as that bullishness has kept others from confirming in recent months and weeks. However, take a look at the TRAN, the Dow's sister index. Was that a H&S that fell to its target straight from the head without ever forming a right shoulder? Annotated Daily Chart for the TRAN: The TRAN sometimes leads the Dow, so that the Dow's possible H&S should perhaps be given some credence this time. Before bears start salivating, however, the Dow's failure so far to confirm the TRAN's plummet with a plummet of its own could be seen by some as bullish divergence between the sister indices. If the Dow continues to hold up for another week or so, relief may send the Dow higher again as the H&S formation is rejected. Much may depend on the reaction to CSCO's earnings tomorrow. In Japan last night, some credited a negative outlook on Olympus with a snowball effect, sending all tech-related stocks lower, and the Dow does also include some tech stocks. In addition, many tech-related indices perch precariously on the respective regression-channel support. Recent declines have been ugly, but they're always ugly as the tech-related indices have fallen to the bottom of their respective regression channels, and somehow the bounce always occurs. Annotated Daily Chart for the NDX: Since the NDX has always bounced from the bottom of this channel, the presumption remains that it will this time, too. However, I'm watching for a fall beneath last week's NDX low of 1474.13 to signal that the NDX may be beginning to break out of its regression channel. As is evident from the minimal data the charting service reveals tonight, the NDX does sometimes violate that channel before climbing again. Support lies at 1460 and again, stronger, at 1450, so unless momentum gets the NDX moving to the downside, tech bulls will soon gain confidence and bid this up again. It's been a while since I last wrote a wrap. I had planned to include a weekly OEX chart from that wrap complete with the original annotations, but the snafu in my charting service doesn't allow me to do that. Those original annotations had included the comment that if the OEX could climb above 523.50, it would see no real resistance again until 550. I'd commented that at the time, I wasn't seeing anything particularly bearish in the OEX action, in that it had climbed above 487, consolidated, and then begun another move higher. I still am not looking for a market collapse, but I do worry about the speed at which the SPX and OEX zoomed higher in December. Those gains need to be consolidated and new support confirmed before traders feel confident of buying into the market. A prolonged period of consolidation can perform this function, but so can a pullback. The TRAN has shown us what can happen to the downside, and December's climb has shown us what happens when bearish hopes are dashed and bulls gain the power. Trade carefully, using stops appropriate for your account management practices. Expect to be whipsawed out of some trades. Tomorrow morning sees the release of December's factory orders and January's ISM services number, with both released at 10:00. Because the GDP number has already given us a glimpse of factory orders, the number doesn't usually prove to be a market-moving number. Expectations are for a gain of 0.3 percent, although estimates range all the way up to a 1.5 percent gain. Factory orders were down 1.4 percent in November. January's ISM services or non-manufacturing number is estimated at 60 percent, although estimates range down to 59 percent, with any number over 50 representing an expansion. December's number was 58 percent. Reaction to CSCO earnings and jitters over the upcoming G7 meeting and Friday's employment numbers will probably outweigh any reaction seen due to these numbers, however. Linda Piazza ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Caremark Rx, Inc. - CMX - close: 28.31 change: +0.72 WHAT TO WATCH: We looked at CMX last week and thought the stock might be ready to break out. That's exactly what happened on Tuesday, as investors cheered the company's earnings report. Look for a slight pullback near $27.50 to provide the best entries and target a continued rally up to the $30-31 area. Chart= --- Abbott Laboratories - ABT - close: 44.25 change: +0.77 WHAT TO WATCH: It took a couple weeks to get the job done, but it looks like ABT has finished its consolidation at the bottom of its rising channel. After dipping to test the 200-dma, ABT broke above the top of the past 3 weeks' consolidation and looks headed towards the top of the channel. Use an initial target of $45.50 at the bottom of the gap and then look for upside continuation to the $47 resistance level. Chart= --- j2 Global Communications - JCOM - close: 22.55 change: -0.85 WHAT TO WATCH: Unable to shake off its recent weakness, JCOM has been bouncing along on support just below $22 and with the rise in selling volume and close near the low of the day on Tuesday, it looks like our expected breakdown could arrive any day. Use a trigger of $21.50 (the 1/23 low) and target a drop to next support in the $18.50-19.00 area. Chart= --- Brooks Automation, Inc. - BRKS - close: 23.04 change: -0.77 WHAT TO WATCH: Putting in a pretty convincing double top near $27.50 earlier this month, BRKS appears to be in trouble. Breaking the 50-dma on rising volume today opens the door for a drop to strong support near $20, also the site of the 200-dma. Use a trigger under today's low and a stop just over yesterday's high. Chart= --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== AMZN $44.94 - Playing the downside in AMZN is not for the timid, but today's breakdown looks too good to pass up. After the sharp post-earnings drop, the stock sliced right through the $47.50 support level and came all the way down to the 200-dma. If this support fails, AMZN should continue right down to next support at $40. TOY $14.51 - After a bit of consolidation over the past couple weeks, TOY is primed for a breakout to new 52-week highs. Use a trigger at $14.90 (just over the early January high) and look for a near-term move to $16.50 resistance. Earnings are the first week of March. MET $34.72 - Recent strength in the Insurance sector has helped push shares of MET up to test multi-year highs just south of $35 today. Use a trigger over today's high and play for a near-term move to the $37 area. Note that earnings are set to be released on February 10th. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Mixed Markets - J. Brown The major averages ended mildly in the green on Tuesday but once again the closing numbers don't tell the whole story. Trading was mixed with the major sector indices split down the middle between winners and losers. Out performing today were the homebuilders as bond yields slipped lower. Drug stocks were also a winning sector, which may be a clue to investor sentiment since drugs are typically seen as safe haven stocks. Airlines continued to under perform as the XAL index dropped another 2.9%. News of more deaths in Asia from the avian flu virus is making investors cautious and the markets didn't react well to a $325 million debt offering by Delta. Internet stocks under performed as Amazon.com plunged another 6.9% toward its 200-dma, marking its fifth decline in six days. Healthcare stocks and oil services equities also felt the pinch. The market internals clearly expressed the markets indecision. On the NYSE advancers tied decliners 14 to 14. On the NASDAQ losing stocks edged past winners 8 to 7. Down volume was stronger than up volume by 10 to 7 on both exchanges. Whether you have a bullish bias or a bearish one the fact that stocks failed to sell-off on the ricin news belies the markets underlying strength. If you missed the headlines a powdery substance coming from an envelope(s) in the offices of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist was confirmed as the deadly ricin poison. It may not be market moving news but it does affect investor psychology. In the financial world the big event tonight was CSCO's earnings report that came out after the closing bell. The networking company beat net income estimates and revenue estimates but sold off in after hours trading. If investors choose to accept John Chambers' positive comments at face value then we could see a bounce in tech stocks tomorrow. Tomorrow will also bring more economic data. The ISM services index is due and economists are looking for a bump from 58 in December to 60 in January. We'll also see the Factory orders report where economists are looking for a +0.2% rise in December following November's 1.4% drop. There will also be an increased focus on Friday's non-farm payrolls report and conjecture about what might result from this Friday's G7 summit. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10701 52-week Low : 7416 Current : 10505 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10559 50-dma: 10257 200-dma: 9490 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1155 52-week Low : 788 Current : 1136 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1139 50-dma: 1099 200-dma: 1021 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 795 Current : 1491 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1514 50-dma: 1464 200-dma: 1326 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Volatility indices have been able to maintain their recent gains but we haven't seen any major breakouts that might indicate a change in investor mentality. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.34 +0.23 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 17.06 +0.19 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 26.30 +0.49 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.70 730,466 408,402 Equity Only 0.58 655,186 379,015 OEX 1.49 11,413 17,032 QQQ 2.95 21,347 63,044 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 76.5 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 72.0 - 2 Bull Correction Dow Indust. 90.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 86.2 - 1 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 87.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.06 10-dma: 1.03 21-dma: 0.99 55-dma: 1.04 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1412 1404 Decliners 1426 1635 New Highs 210 135 New Lows 12 8 Up Volume 776M 708M Down Vol. 1032M 1038M Total Vol. 1820M 1828M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 01/27/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials are beginning to hedge their bullishness from two weeks ago but the changes are mild. In the mean time small traders have become even more bullish with a strong decline in open short positions. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 01/06/04 403,721 408,729 (5,008) (0.6%) 01/13/04 405,558 411,361 (5,803) (0.7%) 01/23/04 422,135 407,626 14,509 1.7% 01/27/04 417,089 410,930 6,159 0.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/06/04 142,844 83,518 59,326 26.2 01/13/04 149,057 90,571 58,486 24.4% 01/23/04 141,107 100,090 41,017 17.0% 01/27/04 143,089 87,828 55,261 23.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 In contrast to the larger S&P contracts above, commercial traders dramatically increased their long positions in the e-minis but remain overall net short. Small trader pared back some of their exuberance from the previous weeks. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 01/06/04 175,489 240,865 (65,376) (15.7%) 01/13/04 196,858 263,845 (66,987) (14.5%) 01/23/04 233,867 307,122 (73,255) (13.5%) 01/27/04 291,166 334,618 (43,452) ( 6.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/06/04 139,433 51,909 87,524 45.7% 01/13/04 191,241 62,711 128,530 50.6% 01/23/04 187,270 57,196 130,074 53.2% 01/27/04 154,485 60,556 93,929 43.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 There is little change to report in the commercial positions while small traders are hedging their bets almost 50/50. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 01/06/04 42,892 37,801 5,091 6.3% 01/13/04 41,829 38,547 3,282 4.1% 01/23/04 42,823 39,442 3,381 4.1% 01/27/04 43,704 40,951 2,753 3.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/06/04 8,035 17,911 ( 9,876) (38.1%) 01/13/04 9,705 12,539 ( 2,834) (12.7%) 01/23/04 9,180 11,371 ( 2,191) (10.7%) 01/27/04 10,137 10,715 ( 578) ( 2.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials have reached their most bullish stance in four weeks on the Dow and in perfect timing the small traders are at their most bearish over the last month. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 01/06/04 15,697 9,497 6,200 24.6% 01/13/04 16,501 8,724 7,777 30.8% 01/23/04 16,403 9,252 7,151 27.9% 01/27/04 16,536 8,404 8,162 32.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/06/04 5,713 8,105 ( 2,392) (17.3%) 01/13/04 6,496 9,970 ( 3,474) (21.1%) 01/23/04 6,068 10,183 ( 4,115) (25.3%) 01/27/04 7,240 12,372 ( 5,132) (26.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 02-03-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: None Stock Splits: AVP, FIC Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= None ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- Avon applies a 2-for-1 split and cash dividend. Avon Products Inc (NYSE:AVP) who announced earnings today also announced a 2-for-1 stock split and a 33% increase in its quarterly cash dividend. The dividend will be raised to 28 cents a share and payable on March 1st, 2004 to shareholders on as of February 13th. The 2:1 split is subject to shareholder approval to increase the number of authorized shares. The vote will take place at AVP's annual meeting on May 6th, 2004. The stock split, to take effect as a 100% stock dividend, will be payable on May 28th to shareholders on record as of May 17th. This will be AVP's third 2:1 split. About the company: Avon is the world's leading direct seller of beauty and related products, with $6.8 billion in annual revenues. Avon markets to women around the world through 4.4 million independent sales Representatives. Avon product lines include such recognizable brand names as Avon Color, Anew, Skin-So-Soft, Avon Solutions, Advance Techniques Hair Care, Avon Naturals, Mark, and Avon Wellness. Avon also markets an extensive line of fashion jewelry and apparel. (Source: Company Press Release) --- FIC announces 3-for-2 split and cash dividend This morning before the opening bell Fair Isaac Corp (NYSE:FIC) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split and a quarterly cash dividend. The stock split will take effect as a 50% stock dividend payable on March 10th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of February 18th. Fractional shares will be paid in cash. The quarterly cash dividend of 2 cents per share will be paid on a pre-split basis. The payable date is March 10th for shareholders on record as of February 18th. About the company: Fair Isaac Corporation is the preeminent provider of creative analytics that unlock value for people, businesses and industries. The Company's predictive modeling, decision analysis, intelligence management, decision management systems and consulting services power billions of mission-critical customer decisions a year. Founded in 1956, Fair Isaac helps thousands of companies in over 60 countries acquire customers more efficiently, increase customer value, reduce fraud and credit losses, lower operating expenses and enter new markets more profitably. Most leading banks and credit card issuers rely on Fair Isaac solutions, as do insurers, retailers, telecommunications providers, healthcare organizations and government agencies. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change KFT Kraft Foods Inc 33.15 +0.60 DEO Diageo Plc (ADS) 53.90 +0.84 GS Goldman Sachs 101.15 +1.34 MET Metlife Inc 34.72 +0.55 SLM SLM Corp 40.29 +1.06 LEH Lehman Brothers 83.36 +0.86 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- HOLX Hologic Inc 19.00 +1.61 TIER Tier Technologies 11.50 +1.06 NETM Netmanage Inc 8.74 +2.45 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- BSX Boston Scientific 42.26 +1.26 AFL Aflac Inc 39.00 +1.19 ETR Entergy Corp 60.00 +1.30 AET Aetna Inc 72.55 +1.17 JP Jefferson-Pilot 53.41 +1.37 SAFC Safeco Corp 45.45 +1.73 NFS Nationwide Financial 37.51 +1.80 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- ADVP AdvancePCS 59.99 +1.41 DNB Dun & Bradstreet 52.02 +1.63 ANPI Angiotech Pharma 28.87 +1.98 MOGN MGI Pharma 51.19 +2.97 NSIT Insight Enterprises Inc 22.00 +1.60 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- ..None.. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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