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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 02/03/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 02-03-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Hope Minus Worry Equals Stagnation
Watch List:       CMX, ABT, JCOM, BRKS
Market Sentiment: Mixed Markets

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
     02-03-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10505.18 +  6.00 10528.96 10457.11 1.82 bln   1414/1427
NASDAQ   2066.21 +  3.06  2071.44  2057.33 1.83 bln   1404/1635
S&P 100   563.36 +  0.60   563.69   560.89   Totals   2818/3062
S&P 500  1136.03 +  0.77  1137.44  1131.33
RUS 2000  579.15 -  1.39   581.19   578.29
DJ TRANS 2851.39 - 16.63  2880.30  2851.03
VIX        17.34 +  0.23    17.78    17.17
VXO        17.06 +  0.19    17.72    16.92
VXN        26.30 +  0.49    26.31    25.66
Total Volume 4,033M
Total UpVol  1,644M
Total DnVol  2,249M
52wk Highs     442
52wk Lows       13
TRIN          1.34
PUT/CALL      0.70
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Hope Minus Worry Equals Stagnation

Traders today could easily identify the hopes and worries that
affected markets, but had more difficulty predicting which would
most fan market behavior.  By the end of the day, the two
revealed themselves to be equally matched, with markets
stagnating near Monday's closing levels in a boring session that
seemed to go on and on and on.

The Dow closed up 6 points, the Nasdaq 3.06, and the SPX 0.77.
Adv:dec ratios stood at 17:16 for the NYSE-traded issues and
15:17 for the Nasdaq-traded issues, with down volume ahead of up
volume on both indices.  A high TRIN persisted all day,
indicating selling pressure, but there was no follow-through on
that pressure except in specific sectors.  Advancing sectors
included the SOX, gaining 0.49 percent; the Natural Gas Index,
gaining 0.51 percent; the Utility Index; gaining 0.57 percent;
the Pharmaceutical Index, gaining 0.70 percent; and the Dow Jones
Home Construction Index, climbing 1.57 percent. Declining sectors
included the Oil Service Sector Index, falling 1.20 percent; the
Morgan Stanley Healthcare Index, falling 1.99 percent; and the
Airline Index, declining a steeper 2.92 percent. Autos fell as
January sales reports trickled in.  Ford (F) reported a 5 percent
decline in sales from year-ago level, with the decline in line
with expectations, according to some. GM reported that January
sales fell 2 percent, with expectations having been for an
increase in sales.  Ford fell 1.65 percent on strong volume and
GM declined 1.72 percent on almost double average daily volume.

Where prompted the hope today?  Hope arose from the CSCO earnings
due after the bell, with that hope fanned by some CSCO suppliers
and competitors having reported good news during this earning
season.  With memories of other post-CSCO-earnings rallies, those
hopes burned bright.  After the bell, CSCO reported Q2 net sales
of $5.4 billion against expectations of $5.2-5.3, depending on
the source.  Headlines announce that the company expects Q3 sales
of $5.45-5.56 billion.  CSCO reported Q2 earnings per share of
$0.18 GAAP, with expectations being for $0.17.  As Jonathan
Levinson pointed out on the Market Monitor after hours, however,
that $0.18 was before an accounting charge.  CNBC trumpeted CEO
John Chamber's statement that it was "clear that the global
economy is improving."  However, CNBC commentators also mentioned
FDRY's pummeling the day after it reported in-line expectations,
with FDRY considered a lesser competitor of CSCO's.  At the time
of this writing, CSCO traded at $25.17, down $1.24 from the 4:00
close, but be careful of trusting what you see in after-hours
trading periods.  Analysts will be paying particular attention to
margins, for example, and tomorrow morning should see a slew of
statements, either negative or positive, from those analysts.
Cramer was already characterizing Chambers' statements as more
cautious than Juniper's CEO's, and if that attitude carries
through to other market watchers, CSCO may indeed trade lower.

Tuesday's worries proved equally easy to identify.  Concerns
about the budget-deficit, the dollar's weakness ahead of this
week's G7 meeting in Florida, the discovery of a ricin-laced
envelope in a U.S. Senate office, the timing of rate hikes and
their likely impact on interest-rate-sensitive sectors, and
sector downgrades all worked to dampen those brightly burning
hopes.  Bear Stearns downgraded the U.S. machinery sector due to
the specter of higher interest rates and the reality of a
slowdown in new orders in January, with Caterpillar (CAT) and
Honeywell (HON) declining 0.58 percent and 1.33 percent,
respectively. Goldman Sachs downgraded the semiconductor sector
to a neutral rating from its previous attractive rating, and also
downgraded some semiconductor companies on valuation concerns.
Among Applied Materials (AMAT), KLA-Tencor (KLAC) and Novellus
Systems (NVLS), all subjects of the GS downgrade, only NVLS ended
lower on the day, however, as the SOX recouped some of its recent
losses.

Other worries cropped up during the day.  The Fed's Bank of
Chicago President Michael Moskow spoke before a Chamber of
Commerce in South Bend, Indiana, reportedly saying that U.S.
economic slack might continue for some time and that the job
market remained a key area of weakness. At 10:00, the release of
the Challenger report revealed that U.S. layoff announcements
were up 26 percent in January.  Challenger says that January
always sees layoffs accelerate, a point Jim Brown has made in his
commentaries, too, but this doesn't engender much faith in a
stronger jobs number on Friday.  Weakness in SOHU, a Chinese
Internet-related stock, after its earnings report may have hit
AMZN, too, dropping the company's stock more than 3 percent and
the INX, the CBOE Internet Index, 1.60 percent.

The worries couldn't entirely dampen the CSCO-inflamed hopes,
though.  The day might have been much different without those
hopes. During the overnight session, the Nikkei set the tone for
a negative open with an early heart-stopping plunge almost 300
points from the day's high.  Plummeting from 10,800 toward 10,500
support in early trading, the Nikkei managed to claw its way back
to a 10,641.92 close, but still closed lower by 134.81 points or
1.25 percent. Various forces led to that decline, including
worries over the dollar's further slippage against the yen,
reports of new deaths due to avian flu, and the typical February
pattern that sees Japanese banks sell some of their stock
holdings.  News of the ricin-laced envelope found in a U.S.
Senate office began to circulate during that overnight session,
too.

European markets also helped set the stage for a lower open, with
the FTSE 100 down 0.18 percent, the CAC 40 down 0.83 percent, and
the DAX down 0.95 percent as the U.S. markets opened.  When our
markets steadied, so did European markets.  All erased some of
those early losses, but only the FTSE closed in positive
territory.  Not being a tech-heavy or export-reliant index, the
FTSE 100 outperformed the others in afternoon trade, climbing off
its midday low and closing up 9.20 points or 0.21 percent, but
just under 4400 resistance.  The CAC 40 saw a late-day climb that
erased some of its losses, but it still closed down 0.73 percent
and below the day's two resistance levels at 3640 and 3660.  The
DAX closed down 0.35 percent, but also closed below the day's
resistance, at 4060.

Before the bell-earnings included reports from Colgate-Palmolive
(CL), Spring FON (FON) and Sprint PCS (PCS), with each beating
expectations by 2 cents, according to one report, but those
reports didn't do much to prop up the markets.  CL closed higher
by 3 percent, FON dropped 0.28 percent, and PCS dropped 1.33
percent, each moving on big volume.

That's what happened today.  What's likely to happen tomorrow and
the rest of the week?  If GM and CSCO after-hours trading can be
trusted, we could see a down day tomorrow, with both trading
lower as this report was prepared.  GM announced this afternoon
that it had received a Wells notice from the SEC, with its CEO
and CFO reportedly now expected to face civil charges due to
possible problems with sales practices and disclosures.  However,
not putting much faith in what I see after-hours, I think it
remains possible that many indices may remain in a holding
pattern ahead of Friday's unemployment and nonfarm payrolls
numbers.  Let's take a look at several charts to see what would
have to occur to change that holding pattern.  Jeff Bailey will
be covering the indices in more detail in his report, so this
will be an overview only, and one that's complicated by the fact
that my charting service was not delivering daily charts as this
report was prepared.  I've switched to 720-minute ones, but the
charting service balked at following those back past October,
too.  I've removed the moving averages, as they're erroneous.

The Dow rises off last week's low in a pattern that resembles a
bear-flag climb, with that bear-flag climb possibly forming the
right shoulder of a H&S formation.  Even if that formation is
valid and is eventually confirmed, the completion of the pattern
might require a day or two for prices to round over into that
right shoulder.

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:



Note the confluence of the H&S neckline and top-line support from
the Dow's former regression channel, however.  Bears will need to
exert strong downward pressure to break through that converging
support.  RSI and stochastics already reveal a propensity to turn
up and the MACD histogram has stopped declining.  This remains a
bearish formation of a type that was once considered reliable,
but lingering bullish fervor could keep this one from confirming,
just as that bullishness has kept others from confirming in
recent months and weeks.

However, take a look at the TRAN, the Dow's sister index.  Was
that a H&S that fell to its target straight from the head without
ever forming a right shoulder?

Annotated Daily Chart for the TRAN:




The TRAN sometimes leads the Dow, so that the Dow's possible H&S
should perhaps be given some credence this time.  Before bears
start salivating, however, the Dow's failure so far to confirm
the TRAN's plummet with a plummet of its own could be seen by
some as bullish divergence between the sister indices.  If the
Dow continues to hold up for another week or so, relief may send
the Dow higher again as the H&S formation is rejected.

Much may depend on the reaction to CSCO's earnings tomorrow.  In
Japan last night, some credited a negative outlook on Olympus
with a snowball effect, sending all tech-related stocks lower,
and the Dow does also include some tech stocks.  In addition,
many tech-related indices perch precariously on the respective
regression-channel support.  Recent declines have been ugly, but
they're always ugly as the tech-related indices have fallen to
the bottom of their respective regression channels, and somehow
the bounce always occurs.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NDX:



Since the NDX has always bounced from the bottom of this channel,
the presumption remains that it will this time, too.  However,
I'm watching for a fall beneath last week's NDX low of 1474.13 to
signal that the NDX may be beginning to break out of its
regression channel.  As is evident from the minimal data the
charting service reveals tonight, the NDX does sometimes violate
that channel before climbing again.  Support lies at 1460 and
again, stronger, at 1450, so unless momentum gets the NDX moving
to the downside, tech bulls will soon gain confidence and bid
this up again.

It's been a while since I last wrote a wrap.  I had planned to
include a weekly OEX chart from that wrap complete with the
original annotations, but the snafu in my charting service
doesn't allow me to do that.  Those original annotations had
included the comment that if the OEX could climb above 523.50, it
would see no real resistance again until 550.  I'd commented that
at the time, I wasn't seeing anything particularly bearish in the
OEX action, in that it had climbed above 487, consolidated, and
then begun another move higher.  I still am not looking for a
market collapse, but I do worry about the speed at which the SPX
and OEX zoomed higher in December.  Those gains need to be
consolidated and new support confirmed before traders feel
confident of buying into the market.  A prolonged period of
consolidation can perform this function, but so can a pullback.
The TRAN has shown us what can happen to the downside, and
December's climb has shown us what happens when bearish hopes are
dashed and bulls gain the power.  Trade carefully, using stops
appropriate for your account management practices.  Expect to be
whipsawed out of some trades.

Tomorrow morning sees the release of December's factory orders
and January's ISM services number, with both released at 10:00.
Because the GDP number has already given us a glimpse of factory
orders, the number doesn't usually prove to be a market-moving
number.  Expectations are for a gain of 0.3 percent, although
estimates range all the way up to a 1.5 percent gain.  Factory
orders were down 1.4 percent in November.  January's ISM services
or non-manufacturing number is estimated at 60 percent, although
estimates range down to 59 percent, with any number over 50
representing an expansion.  December's number was 58 percent.
Reaction to CSCO earnings and jitters over the upcoming G7
meeting and Friday's employment numbers will probably outweigh
any reaction seen due to these numbers, however.

Linda Piazza


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Caremark Rx, Inc. - CMX - close: 28.31 change: +0.72

WHAT TO WATCH: We looked at CMX last week and thought the stock
might be ready to break out.  That's exactly what happened on
Tuesday, as investors cheered the company's earnings report.
Look for a slight pullback near $27.50 to provide the best
entries and target a continued rally up to the $30-31 area.

Chart=


---

Abbott Laboratories - ABT - close: 44.25 change: +0.77

WHAT TO WATCH: It took a couple weeks to get the job done, but it
looks like ABT has finished its consolidation at the bottom of
its rising channel.  After dipping to test the 200-dma, ABT broke
above the top of the past 3 weeks' consolidation and looks headed
towards the top of the channel.  Use an initial target of $45.50
at the bottom of the gap and then look for upside continuation to
the $47 resistance level.

Chart=


---

j2 Global Communications - JCOM - close: 22.55 change: -0.85

WHAT TO WATCH: Unable to shake off its recent weakness, JCOM has
been bouncing along on support just below $22 and with the rise
in selling volume and close near the low of the day on Tuesday,
it looks like our expected breakdown could arrive any day.  Use a
trigger of $21.50 (the 1/23 low) and target a drop to next
support in the $18.50-19.00 area.

Chart=


---

Brooks Automation, Inc. - BRKS - close: 23.04 change: -0.77

WHAT TO WATCH: Putting in a pretty convincing double top near
$27.50 earlier this month, BRKS appears to be in trouble.
Breaking the 50-dma on rising volume today opens the door for a
drop to strong support near $20, also the site of the 200-dma.
Use a trigger under today's low and a stop just over yesterday's
high.

Chart=


---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

AMZN $44.94 - Playing the downside in AMZN is not for the timid,
but today's breakdown looks too good to pass up.  After the sharp
post-earnings drop, the stock sliced right through the $47.50
support level and came all the way down to the 200-dma.  If this
support fails, AMZN should continue right down to next support at
$40.

TOY $14.51 - After a bit of consolidation over the past couple
weeks, TOY is primed for a breakout to new 52-week highs.  Use a
trigger at $14.90 (just over the early January high) and look for
a near-term move to $16.50 resistance.  Earnings are the first
week of March.

MET $34.72 - Recent strength in the Insurance sector has helped
push shares of MET up to test multi-year highs just south of $35
today.  Use a trigger over today's high and play for a near-term
move to the $37 area.  Note that earnings are set to be released
on February 10th.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Mixed Markets
- J. Brown

The major averages ended mildly in the green on Tuesday but once
again the closing numbers don't tell the whole story.   Trading
was mixed with the major sector indices split down the middle
between winners and losers.  Out performing today were the
homebuilders as bond yields slipped lower.  Drug stocks were also
a winning sector, which may be a clue to investor sentiment since
drugs are typically seen as safe haven stocks.

Airlines continued to under perform as the XAL index dropped
another 2.9%.  News of more deaths in Asia from the avian flu
virus is making investors cautious and the markets didn't react
well to a $325 million debt offering by Delta.  Internet stocks
under performed as Amazon.com plunged another 6.9% toward its
200-dma, marking its fifth decline in six days.  Healthcare
stocks and oil services equities also felt the pinch.

The market internals clearly expressed the markets indecision.
On the NYSE advancers tied decliners 14 to 14.  On the NASDAQ
losing stocks edged past winners 8 to 7.  Down volume was
stronger than up volume by 10 to 7 on both exchanges.

Whether you have a bullish bias or a bearish one the fact that
stocks failed to sell-off on the ricin news belies the markets
underlying strength.  If you missed the headlines a powdery
substance coming from an envelope(s) in the offices of Senate
Majority Leader Bill Frist was confirmed as the deadly ricin
poison.  It may not be market moving news but it does affect
investor psychology.

In the financial world the big event tonight was CSCO's earnings
report that came out after the closing bell.  The networking
company beat net income estimates and revenue estimates but sold
off in after hours trading.  If investors choose to accept John
Chambers' positive comments at face value then we could see a
bounce in tech stocks tomorrow.

Tomorrow will also bring more economic data.  The ISM services
index is due and economists are looking for a bump from 58 in
December to 60 in January.  We'll also see the Factory orders
report where economists are looking for a +0.2% rise in December
following November's 1.4% drop.  There will also be an increased
focus on Friday's non-farm payrolls report and conjecture about
what might result from this Friday's G7 summit.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10701
52-week Low :  7416
Current     : 10505

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10559
 50-dma: 10257
200-dma:  9490

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1155
52-week Low :  788
Current     : 1136

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1139
 50-dma: 1099
200-dma: 1021

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1491

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1514
 50-dma: 1464
200-dma: 1326


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Volatility indices have been able to maintain their recent gains
but we haven't seen any major breakouts that might indicate a
change in investor mentality.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.34 +0.23
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 17.06 +0.19
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 26.30 +0.49

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          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.70        730,466       408,402
Equity Only    0.58        655,186       379,015
OEX            1.49         11,413        17,032
QQQ            2.95         21,347        63,044


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          76.5    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    72.0    - 2     Bull Correction
Dow Indust.   90.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       86.2    - 1     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       87.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.06
10-dma: 1.03
21-dma: 0.99
55-dma: 1.04


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1412      1404
Decliners    1426      1635

New Highs     210       135
New Lows       12         8

Up Volume    776M      708M
Down Vol.   1032M     1038M

Total Vol.  1820M     1828M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 01/27/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials are beginning to hedge their bullishness from two
weeks ago but the changes are mild.  In the mean time small
traders have become even more bullish with a strong decline
in open short positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/06/04      403,721   408,729    (5,008)   (0.6%)
01/13/04      405,558   411,361    (5,803)   (0.7%)
01/23/04      422,135   407,626    14,509     1.7%
01/27/04      417,089   410,930     6,159     0.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/06/04      142,844    83,518    59,326    26.2
01/13/04      149,057    90,571    58,486    24.4%
01/23/04      141,107   100,090    41,017    17.0%
01/27/04      143,089    87,828    55,261    23.9%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

In contrast to the larger S&P contracts above, commercial
traders dramatically increased their long positions in the
e-minis but remain overall net short.  Small trader pared
back some of their exuberance from the previous weeks.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/06/04      175,489   240,865    (65,376)  (15.7%)
01/13/04      196,858   263,845    (66,987)  (14.5%)
01/23/04      233,867   307,122    (73,255)  (13.5%)
01/27/04      291,166   334,618    (43,452)  ( 6.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/06/04     139,433     51,909    87,524    45.7%
01/13/04     191,241     62,711   128,530    50.6%
01/23/04     187,270     57,196   130,074    53.2%
01/27/04     154,485     60,556    93,929    43.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There is little change to report in the commercial positions
while small traders are hedging their bets almost 50/50.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/06/04       42,892     37,801     5,091    6.3%
01/13/04       41,829     38,547     3,282    4.1%
01/23/04       42,823     39,442     3,381    4.1%
01/27/04       43,704     40,951     2,753    3.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/06/04        8,035    17,911   ( 9,876)  (38.1%)
01/13/04        9,705    12,539   ( 2,834)  (12.7%)
01/23/04        9,180    11,371   ( 2,191)  (10.7%)
01/27/04       10,137    10,715   (   578)  ( 2.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials have reached their most bullish stance in four
weeks on the Dow and in perfect timing the small traders
are at their most bearish over the last month.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/06/04       15,697     9,497    6,200      24.6%
01/13/04       16,501     8,724    7,777      30.8%
01/23/04       16,403     9,252    7,151      27.9%
01/27/04       16,536     8,404    8,162      32.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/06/04        5,713     8,105  ( 2,392)   (17.3%)
01/13/04        6,496     9,970  ( 3,474)   (21.1%)
01/23/04        6,068    10,183  ( 4,115)   (25.3%)
01/27/04        7,240    12,372  ( 5,132)   (26.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 02-03-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments:  None
Stock Splits:      AVP, FIC

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

None


=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------


Avon applies a 2-for-1 split and cash dividend.

Avon Products Inc (NYSE:AVP) who announced earnings today also
announced a 2-for-1 stock split and a 33% increase in its
quarterly cash dividend.

The dividend will be raised to 28 cents a share and payable on
March 1st, 2004 to shareholders on as of February 13th.

The 2:1 split is subject to shareholder approval to increase the
number of authorized shares.  The vote will take place at AVP's
annual meeting on May 6th, 2004.  The stock split, to take effect
as a 100% stock dividend, will be payable on May 28th to
shareholders on record as of May 17th.   This will be AVP's third
2:1 split.


About the company:
Avon is the world's leading direct seller of beauty and related
products, with $6.8 billion in annual revenues. Avon markets to
women around the world through 4.4 million independent sales
Representatives. Avon product lines include such recognizable
brand names as Avon Color, Anew, Skin-So-Soft, Avon Solutions,
Advance Techniques Hair Care, Avon Naturals, Mark, and Avon
Wellness. Avon also markets an extensive line of fashion jewelry
and apparel. (Source: Company Press Release)

---

FIC announces 3-for-2 split and cash dividend

This morning before the opening bell Fair Isaac Corp (NYSE:FIC)
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock
split and a quarterly cash dividend.

The stock split will take effect as a 50% stock dividend payable
on March 10th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of February 18th.
Fractional shares will be paid in cash.

The quarterly cash dividend of 2 cents per share will be paid on a
pre-split basis.  The payable date is March 10th for shareholders
on record as of February 18th.


About the company:
Fair Isaac Corporation is the preeminent provider of creative
analytics that unlock value for people, businesses and industries.
The Company's predictive modeling, decision analysis, intelligence
management, decision management systems and consulting services
power billions of mission-critical customer decisions a year.
Founded in 1956, Fair Isaac helps thousands of companies in over
60 countries acquire customers more efficiently, increase customer
value, reduce fraud and credit losses, lower operating expenses
and enter new markets more profitably. Most leading banks and
credit card issuers rely on Fair Isaac solutions, as do insurers,
retailers, telecommunications providers, healthcare organizations
and government agencies. (Source: Company Press Release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

KFT     Kraft Foods Inc            33.15     +0.60
DEO     Diageo Plc (ADS)           53.90     +0.84
GS      Goldman Sachs             101.15     +1.34
MET     Metlife Inc                34.72     +0.55
SLM     SLM Corp                   40.29     +1.06
LEH     Lehman Brothers            83.36     +0.86

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

HOLX    Hologic Inc                19.00     +1.61
TIER    Tier Technologies          11.50     +1.06
NETM    Netmanage Inc               8.74     +2.45

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

BSX     Boston Scientific          42.26     +1.26
AFL     Aflac Inc                  39.00     +1.19
ETR     Entergy Corp               60.00     +1.30
AET     Aetna Inc                  72.55     +1.17
JP      Jefferson-Pilot            53.41     +1.37
SAFC    Safeco Corp                45.45     +1.73
NFS     Nationwide Financial       37.51     +1.80

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

ADVP    AdvancePCS                 59.99     +1.41
DNB     Dun & Bradstreet           52.02     +1.63
ANPI    Angiotech Pharma           28.87     +1.98
MOGN    MGI Pharma                 51.19     +2.97
NSIT    Insight Enterprises Inc    22.00     +1.60

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

     ..None..


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only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
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is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
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presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
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factors beyond our control.

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The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

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