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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 02/15/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-15-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Now Entering The Catalyst Void
Market Sentiment:  Look at the time!
Watch List:        GTI, LEXR, POWI, CTXS, AMAT

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 02-13        WE 02-06        WE 01-30        WE 01-23
DOW    10627.85 + 34.82 10593.0 +104.96 10488.1 - 80.22 - 32.22
Nasdaq  2053.56 - 10.45 2064.01 -  2.14 2066.15 - 57.72 - 16.59
S&P-100  565.92 -  0.14  566.06 +  5.75  560.31 -  5.10 +  0.69
S&P-500 1145.81 +  3.05 1142.76 + 11.63 1131.13 - 10.42 +  1.72
W5000  11174.00 + 44.60 11129.4 +100.20 11029.2 -127.58 + 40.74
RUT      585.14 +  1.07  584.07 +  3.31  580.76 - 15.38 +  5.73
TRAN    2916.56 + 22.20 2894.36 +  8.40 2885.96 -186.99 + 36.66
VIX       15.58 -  0.41   15.99 -  0.64   16.63 +  1.79 -  0.16
VXO       15.63 -  0.35   15.98 -  1.07   17.05 +  2.18 -  0.40
VXN       24.14 -  0.49   24.63 -  0.43   25.06 +  3.79 +  1.03
TRIN       1.19            0.62            1.00            1.15
Put/Call   0.76            0.62            0.81            0.77
WE = week ending
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Now Entering The Catalyst Void
by Jim Brown

With earnings basically over for the 4Q we are entering
the period in the earnings cycle where there is a lack of
a catalyst to move stocks forward. The economic calendar
will heat up next week and there is a greater risk of a
disappointment than a positive surprise. As we enter this
void traders will be watching recent support levels very
carefully.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily



Economically Friday the 13th lived up to its superstitious
reputation. The December Balance of Trade reversed its gains
from last month and despite the declining dollar exports fell
and imports rebounded strongly from the November drop. The
December exports to China were the second highest on record
at $3.3 billion. Imports from the EU were the highest on
record at +$23.1 billion. One positive sign was the $20.1
billion in imports of high technology products. This was the
highest level since Nov-2000. This suggests there was a real
pickup in business spending or at least ordering in the last
quarter. Considering more and more of our consumer goods are
now produced overseas there is little chance of the trade
balance reverting any time soon. The majority of the imports
were autos and parts, oil and related products and the high
tech equipment. All high dollar items.

The Import and Export Prices rose substantially for January
but the majority of the volatility was again oil and beef.
Prices jumped +1.3% and well over the +0.5% expected. This
was the largest monthly increase in nearly a year. Commodity
prices are also rising as global demand continues to increase.

The biggest shock of the day was the Consumer Sentiment which
fell to 93.1 from 103.8 in January. I say it was a big shock
unless you have been reading my commentary. I have reported
twice in the last week that we could have a negative surprise
based on other survey information. Both components fell with
expectations falling to 88.4 from 100.1 and present conditions
falling to 100.4 from 109.5. This is a serious drop in the
sentiment BUT it is only a retracement of the +11 point jump
in January. We are right back in the December range of 92.6.
The spike to 103.8 was simply a spike caused mostly by the
unreasonable expectations for a big Jobs number in January.
When those jobs failed to appear the miss was so large most
consumers suddenly felt maybe the future was not so bright.
There is also the election impact. Now that the democrats are
blasting the airwaves with how bad jobs and the economy have
been under Bush those voters are feeling depressed. It is not
a slam against democrats, just a fact that negative campaigns
produce negative feelings of well being. This report should
not be seen as a market negative. The January numbers were
wrong and they have been corrected with the initial February
survey.

The markets used the economic numbers as an excuse for profit
taking but despite all the whining coming from the talking
heads on TV it was not that bad. We had a couple of sell
programs at 10:20 and 10:30 and a sudden drop at 12:20 when
news of a fire alarm at a Senate building hit the airwaves.
Contrary to the commentator's rhetoric it was not a bad day.

The Dow did fall to 10600 support but was immediately bought
and was in no danger into the close. The Nasdaq dropped to
support at 2050 and quickly rebounded and held above that
level for the rest of the day. The Nasdaq closed exactly
-100 points off the high of the year but nowhere near any
critical support. This was the fourth consecutive weeks of
losses for the Nasdaq but it is still within 100 points of
the highs. Sounds better when you say it that way. The Dow
Closed up for the week and stretched its winning streak to
10 of the last 12 weeks. The S&P has closed up 11 of the
last 12 weeks.

All of this just emphasizes the sideways consolidation phase
we are in. That may sound strange when you remember the Dow
and S&P closed at a new two-year highs on Wednesday. Need
further proof we are moving sideways? The S&P is only trading
up +25 points from its January-5th close at 1121. The Dow is
only +90 points above its 10540 close on Jan-5th. The trend
is definitely up but we have spent almost as many days under
10540 as above it over the last three weeks. February is
known as a consolidation month and is historically the 3rd
weakest month of the year. Given those historical norms we
are having a great month.

However, we are entering the catalyst void. This is kind of
like the Bermuda Triangle of the earnings cycle. Strange
things can and do happen for no apparent reason. Next week we
have a flurry of economic reports and very few major earnings
to provide excitement. The major reporters are WMT, TGT, AMAT,
HPQ and Deere (DE). Nobody expects any surprises
from WMT or TGT and HPQ already pre announced. That leaves
AMAT as the only real tech poster child to announce next
week and they are assumed to be doing great. This sets up
a potential for negative surprises but it is a very small
risk. The real risk comes on the economic side but it is
still hard to paint a high risk picture. On Tuesday we will
get the NY Empire State manufacturing Survey, Industrial
Production and the Housing Index. Not much to worry about
there. Wednesday has a bunch of reports but none critical.
Thursday will be a key day with Jobless Claims, PPI and the
Philly Fed Survey. With Jobless Claims up over 350K for the
two weeks with weather getting the blame it will be crucial
to see a drop this week. If claims are over 350K again it
will be tough to sell the weather excuse. The PPI could
show signs of inflation with rising commodity prices and
the Philly Fed will be read with hopes last months monster
spike is not retraced like the sentiment numbers. Friday is
almost an after thought with only the CPI on the economic
schedule.

We have a flurry of reports but nothing really critical as
long as the positive trend continues. Should a couple weaken
slightly they will probably be ignored but in a weak void
of excitement each could take on a life of their own. Next
week is also option expiration and other than the two sell
programs on Friday we really have not seen any normal
increase in volatility. This may be the first month since
November that the markets are not significantly higher for
the option cycle. This could dampen the option related
explosions we saw in Dec/Jan. Those that rolled out to the
next month to avoid big losses may finally escape the pain.
This could suggest a negative bias for the week compared to
the prior two months expirations.

Odds are we will continue our consolidation and with that
in mind the Dow does not appear to be in any danger. It is
above support at 10600 and well above stronger support at
10450. That is a lot of points to churn given the current
bullish sentiment and patient Fed. The 50 dma has risen to
10392 and in position to provide even stronger support to
the 10450 level by the end of the week. The Nasdaq is more
of a problem. The morning drop on Friday knocked the Nasdaq
below its comfort range support for the week at 2060. The
current 2050 support level is more psychological than
physical but the 50 dma has risen to just below the current
level at 2032. The Nasdaq is in danger of retesting that
50 dma support on even minimal selling. The last test took
us down to just below 2020 and left 2000 untouched. Worst
case the 2000-2020 level should provide significant support.
This leaves the Nasdaq with a possible range between 2000
and the highs for the week near 2100. Should we continue to
consolidate in this range I am sure nobody would complain.

The biggest losers on Friday were the SOX and the Russell.
The SOX dropped -1.58% on Friday to close at 511 but that
is well off last weeks lows of 493. The biggest hit to the
sector came on a downgrade from BAC on Intel and the chip
equipment stocks. They said they lowered estimates on Intel
based on weaker than expected notebook PC demand. Based on
their own channel checks they expect Q1 notebook shipments
to drop -12.9%. Long term they still suggest using any
weakness in Intel as a buying opportunity and predicted
very strong performance for Intel in the second half. Still
the SOX was knocked for a loss with the knee jerk reaction
to the downgrade. Intel's mid quarter update is scheduled
for March-4th. The drop in the SOX was likely a one day
event in front of the holiday weekend. It is still well
above support at 495.

Semiconductor Index - Daily



Russell-2000 - Daily



The Russell also dropped -1.28% to 585 but is still much
better off than the SOX. The Russell came very close to its
recent high at 601 on Wednesday and well over its 565 support
low last week. I suspect the drop on Friday was simply profit
taking in the high risk stocks before the weekend.

In reality the majority of the profit taking on Friday was
probably related to event risk over the long weekend. We
had flights cancelled on Friday, evacuations of Senate
offices and a post office closed because of a white powder.
It is a wonder the selling was not any worse. The internals
were negative but no worse than any normal profit taking
day. In short there is nothing to suggest that Friday's
drop was anything more than just a normal market cycle.
We are still in buy the dip mode until something changes
and I see nothing on the immediate horizon to make me
change that opinion. I expect some increased volatility
next week due to option expiration but nothing serious.
However, the really big moves normally come when you least
expect them so keep those stops in place!

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Look at the time!
- J. Brown

Wow! Would you believe it?  February is half over and we're
already six weeks into the new year.  And what an eventful year
it has been.  On Wednesday the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500
and the Wilshire 5000 index all hit new highs, surpassing
January's peak.  Not bad for a February, which is typically the
third worst month of the year for stocks.  We've just survived a
very eventful Q4 earnings season, the two-day FOMC meeting,
Greenspan's appearances before congress and a wardrobe
malfunction during the Super Bowl.

The only thing more surprising was the Comcast bid to buy Disney.
Well that and the strength in this market.  It seems like the
market has become immune to headlines of "white powder" and other
potential threats showing up in Washington post offices and
congressional buildings.  Not to mention air travel cancellations
based on terrorist data.  It's amazing how fast we adjust.
Speaking of adjusting it looks like consumers have altered their
confidence levels from irrationally exuberant in January back
down to just really confident with the disappointing February
Michigan sentiment numbers.  Now if we could only get this
growing economy to produce some jobs the forecast would look
pretty bright.

In the mean time Wall Street will have to settle with a strong
corporate profit outlook, low interest rates, a federal reserve
promising to be "patient" and a declining dollar that is
benefiting multinational corporations based in the U.S.  Sounds
pretty good doesn't it?  The only bad news seems to be a market
rally that is finally looking a little tired (again), at least in
a few indices.  The NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 both produced
lower highs on the Thursday-Friday decline this week.  Joining
them were nearly all the tech indices (Disk drives, hardware,
software, internets, semiconductors) also producing lower highs.
Throwing a shadow across the technical picture was the Dow
Transports index, which is failing under its 50-dma after last
week's big bounce.  One of the recent winners, the drug sector,
experienced some decent profit taking too.

However, this last week was not without its bright spots.  Oil
service stocks continued to soar and natural gas issued rode
their coattails.  Hitting new highs were the DFI defense index
and the IUX insurance index.  Also noteworthy is the RLX retail
index, which has maintained its recent gains and is approaching
four-year highs.

Next will bring a basketful of economic reports but the headline
numbers will be the PPI on Thursday and the CPI on Friday.  Plus,
we still have earnings from retail titan Wal-Mart (WMT) on
February 19th and semiconductor equipment giant Applied Materials
(AMAT) on February 18th.  Both companies have significant
influence on their sectors and will affect investor confidence.
Last week the second largest chip equipment maker Tokyo Electron
quadrupled its estimates.  I don't believe AMAT, the largest
equipment maker, can produce similar guidance but they should
have positive comments given the strength in the chip business.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10746
52-week Low :  7416
Current     : 10627

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10581
 50-dma: 10392
200-dma:  9577



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1158
52-week Low :  788
Current     : 1145

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1141
 50-dma: 1113
200-dma: 1030



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1484

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1489
 50-dma: 1476
200-dma: 1341


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Friday produced a decent bounce in the VXO but these indices
remain low and are still no help in suggesting a change in
direction.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.58 +0.27
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.63 +0.73
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 24.14 +0.61

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.76        766,143       582,099
Equity Only    1.71        632,241       370,129
OEX            0.85         37,220        43,539
QQQ            2.78         27,000        75,155


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          77.2    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    69.0    + 0     Bear Alert
Dow Indust.   86.7    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       88.2    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       89.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.04
10-dma: 1.00
21-dma: 0.96
55-dma: 0.98


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1029      1013
Decliners    1813      2048

New Highs     311       158
New Lows        9         2

Up Volume    517M      481M
Down Vol.   1077M     1260M

Total Vol.  1619M     1753M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/10/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

No change for the Commercial traders.  Small Traders have
grown slightly more bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/23/04      422,135   407,626    14,509     1.7%
01/27/04      417,089   410,930     6,159     0.7%
02/03/04      411,920   414,596    (2,676)   (0.3%)
02/10/04      412,217   414,044    (1,827)   (0.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04      141,107   100,090    41,017    17.0%
01/27/04      143,089    87,828    55,261    23.9%
02/03/04      141,465    81,926    59,539    26.7%
02/10/04      143,496    80,362    63,134    28.2%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials are starting to put some money to work and we're
seeing another jump in contracts for both longs and shorts.
Small traders have pared back their longs a bit and put some
of that money on the short side.



Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/23/04      233,867   307,122    (73,255)  (13.5%)
01/27/04      291,166   334,618    (43,452)  ( 6.9%)
02/03/04      280,519   346,042    (65,523)  (10.5%)
02/10/04      297,601   356,630    (59,029)  ( 9.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04     187,270     57,196   130,074    53.2%
01/27/04     154,485     60,556    93,929    43.7%
02/03/04     133,293     55,476    77,817    41.2%
02/10/04     110,480     58,428    52,052    30.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Not much change from the Commercial traders but they are
a tiny bit more bullish here.  Small Traders have significantly
bumped up their long positions.



Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04       42,823     39,442     3,381    4.1%
01/27/04       43,704     40,951     2,753    3.3%
02/03/04       43,600     41,441     2,159    2.5%
02/10/04       44,406     40,439     3,967    4.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04        9,180    11,371    (2,191)  (10.7%)
01/27/04       10,137    10,715    (  578)  ( 2.8%)
02/03/04        8,907    13,729    (4,822)  (21.3%)
02/10/04        9,906    13,018    (3,112)  (13.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Not much change this week for Commercials.  Small traders
are slightly more bearish on the Dow.



Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04       16,403     9,252    7,151      27.9%
01/27/04       16,536     8,404    8,162      32.7%
02/03/04       17,765     9,619    8,146      29.7%
02/10/04       21,764    11,974    9,790      29.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/23/04        6,068    10,183   (4,115)   (25.3%)
01/27/04        7,240    12,372   (5,132)   (26.2%)
02/03/04        6,352    13,113   (6,761)   (34.7%)
02/10/04        6,267    14,220   (7,953)   (38.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Graftech Intl Ltd - GTI - close: 11.94 change: -0.81

WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding GTI to the PI play
list as a short.  The longer-term up trending channel has been
broken and its first rebound has failed at its 50-dma.  Short-
term technical oscillators are also rolling over.  We would use a
trigger at $11.74 to open the play (below the short-term double-
bottom at 11.75) and target a move to the $10 level.




---

Lexar Media - LEXR - close: 14.10 change: -0.30

WHAT TO WATCH: LEXR also looks like a decent short candidate.
The stock has been stuck in a trend of lower highs and can't get
out.  Shares recently broke through their 200-dma, another
technical no-no.  LEXR also has a bearish P&F chart suggesting an
$8.00 price target.  We feel that short-term traders could target
a move to $12.50 and maybe $10.00 if they are patient.




---

Power Integrations - POWI - close: 28.55 change: -0.54

WHAT TO WATCH: POWI also looks like a tempting short play.
Investors continue to sell into any signs of strength and shares
have broken support at the $30.00 level and its 200-dma.  Its
weekly chart suggests that there is support near $26.00 but the
stock's immediate goal may be filling the gap from Feb. 6th.




---

Citrix Systems - CTXS - close: 19.47 change: -0.11

WHAT TO WATCH: The recent consolidation sideways under the $20
level looks like a pause on the way down for shares of CTXS.
Bears are probably gunning for the $16.75-17.00 region where CTXS
bounced in August.  This happens to be the top of the gap from
last April.  Short-term oscillators look weak.




---

Applied Materials - AMAT - close: 21.77 change: -0.28

WHAT TO WATCH: Keep an eye on AMAT.  The largest chip equipment
maker in the world is expected to announce earnings on Feb. 18th.
Last week its rival Tokyo Electron came out with really good news
and raised its estimates so investors could be hoping for strong
results from AMAT.  Shares of AMAT are currently struggling with
resistance at its 50-dma.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

TRMB $34.80 -0.71 - The breakdown under its 50-dma was already
bearish but Friday's drop under the $35.00 mark makes TRMB look
like a short.

SWIR $25.59 -0.56 - Aggressive bears can watch for a move under
the $25.00 mark and target support near $22.00.

AFFX $32.65 -0.27 - AFFX has been impressively strong this week
hitting new multi-year highs.  The intraday rebound from $32 on
Friday may be worth watching.

KTO $18.50 +0.05 - KTO is trading near new highs and levels not
seen since 1998.  The intraday bounce from $18.00 on Friday may
be an entry point.  Use a good stop!


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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-15-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:     TSS
  Bullish Play Updates:  AMZN


Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     ARA
  New Bearish Plays:     NFLX
  Bullish Play Updates:  ANN, BA, LIN, SGP,


High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  GSS
  Bearish Play Updates:  NETE


Stock Splits
  Announcements:         BRL, LWAY


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Total System Services - TSS - cls: 22.27 chg: -0.23 stop: 22.51

Company Description:
Total System Services, a.k.a. TSYS, brings integrity and
innovation to the world of electronic payments as the integral
link between buyers and sellers in this rapidly evolving
universe. With 274 million accounts on file, TSYS makes it
possible for millions of consumers to use their credit, debit,
prepaid, commercial, smart and retail cards any time, anywhere
through any medium or portal. TSYS offers a full range of
acquiring and issuing services from accepting and settling
electronic payments for goods and services to designing,
administering and fulfilling loyalty programs to credit
applications, bankruptcy management and collection services.
Based in Columbus, Ga., TSYS serves companies on three continents
representing 16 currencies and seven languages. TSYS also
maintains operations in Canada, Mexico, Japan, and the United
Kingdom and is an 81-percent-owned subsidiary of Synovus
(NYSE:SNV). (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
TSS, while well off its highs, still looks like it has further to
fall.  The company issued an earnings warning in late January
that sent the stock tumbling.  TSS' new guidance for 2004 puts
earnings in the 75-76 range, below analysts' estimates at 80
cents.  Influencing TSS' earnings is the JPM-Bank One merger.
Bank One had been routing more business from FDC to TSS but now
that JPM is buying Bank One it looks like TSS will lose the Bank
One business because JPM uses FDC (-Reuters).  There was a dead
cat bounce on the initial earnings-warning drop but the rebound
failed at its 200-dma.  The drift lower bounced again near $22
and it looks ready for its next leg lower.

We are going to use a TRIGGER at $21.75 to open the play.  Until
then we will sit out.  More aggressive traders can try and jump
the gun on a move under $22.00.  If we are triggered we'll start
the play with a stop loss at 22.51.  Our initial target is the
$20 level but TSS' weekly chart suggest that $19 is the next
support level.  Meanwhile its P&F chart points to a $12.00 price
target.

Annotated Chart:




Picked on February xx at $xx.xx <-- see trigger
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          01/13/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       323 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 46.38 change: -0.68 stop: 44.00

A funny thing happened on the way to a breakout.  AMZN got firmly
rejected by the bears at its 10-dma ($47.33) resistance the past
two days.  Intraday forays above that average were quickly turned
back and now the daily Stochastics are starting to point down.
The Internet index (INX.X) got hit for a 1.76% loss on Friday,
which is pretty much inline with AMZN's 1.44% loss.  But it calls
into question whether the stock is going to be able to build on
its recent rebound from the 200-dma ($45.57) or if this is just a
feeble dead-cat bounce designed to trap the bulls.  If it is the
latter, it certainly got us, as Thursday's push through the
$47.50 level activated our trigger and was good for momentum
entries.  That "breakout" only ran up to the $48 level before
reversing and it looks like the next data point will come when
AMZN tests the 200-dma again.  A rebound from there can be used
for new entries, while a break below will likely threaten or even
break our $44 stop.

Picked on February 11th at  $47.14
Change since picked          -0.76
Earnings Date              1/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    9.77 mln





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Aracruz Celulose Sa - ARA - close: 34.11 chg: +1.02 stop: 31.99

Company Description:
Aracruz Celulose is the world's leading producer of bleached
eucalyptus pulp. The company is responsible for 30% of the global
supply of the product, used to manufacture high value added goods
such as tissue, printing and writing, and specialty papers.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like ARA, a Brazilian-based pulp supplier, for both its
earnings growth and its technical picture.  In January the
company announced both full year numbers and its Q4 earnings.
2003 sales rose 36% and its share of the global eucalyptus pulp
market rose to 31%.  Net income for the year rose 32% to $148.1
million.  Its Q4 numbers were very impressive.  Revenues rose 52%
to $300.1 million (US$) and its Q4 net income jumped 188% from
the same period last year.

ARA's stock price has been churning sideways above the $30 level
since its earnings report.  Yet now it appears that the short-
term trend of higher lows (riding its 50-dma) is finally
producing a bullish breakout we can trade.  Friday's 3% gain was
fueled by twice the average volume.  Its technical picture also
looks very bullish and ARA could make another run at the $38
level.   We suggest long positions now with a stop at $31.99.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on February 15 at $34.11
Gain since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date          01/13/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       323 thousand




  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Netflix, Inc. - NFLX - close: 35.54 change: -1.76 stop: 38.25

Company Description:
Netflix, Inc. provides online entertainment subscription service
in the United States. As of December 31, 2002, the Company
provided more than 1,000,000 subscribers access to a
comprehensive library of more than 14,500 movie, television and
other filmed entertainment titles. Its standard subscription plan
allows subscribers to have three titles out at the same time,
with no due dates, late fees or shipping charges for fixed fee
per month. Subscribers can view as many titles as they want in a
month. Subscribers select titles at the Company's Website
(www.netflix.com) aided by its proprietary recommendation
service, receive them on DVD by first-class mail and return them
to Netflix at their convenience using its prepaid mailers. Once a
title has been returned, the Company mails the next available
title in a subscriber's queue.

Why we like it:
The past several months have seen shares of NFLX undergo a
powerful rally, with the stock increasing from the $12 level in
late August to almost $40 following the recent earnings report.
For a company that is running a P/E ratio of nearly 400, that
seems like a bit too much.  Following the completion of the
company's 2-1 split on Thursday, investors seem to be in
agreement and are taking some profits off the table.  Due to the
extreme overvaluation, that profit taking could easily transform
into something uglier and we want to be there to take advantage
of it.  Since its earnings announcement, NFLX has been range
trading between $40 on the high side and $34.50 on the low side,
stubbornly refusing to break under the bottom of the post
earnings gap.  A break below the bottom of that gap should pick
up some steam though and we should see a rapid retracement
towards the $30 support.

Looking at it from another perspective, a trade at $34 will
create a new PnF Sell signal with a tentative bearish price
target of $28.  That looks like a very achievable target if there
is any appreciable increase in selling pressure.  As point of
reference, $27 is the next support below $30, and is also the
site of the 100-dma ($27.27).  We want to use a trigger at $34 to
ensure there is a PnF Sell signal in place before entering the
play.  Momentum traders can enter on the initial break, while
those employing a more cautious strategy can look for a
subsequent failed rebound in the $35-36 area.  To allow for some
near-term volatility before the breakdown occurs, we're setting a
wide stop at $38.25, just over Friday's intraday high.  But we'll
look to tighten that significantly once the initial breakdown
occurs.

Annotated Chart of NFLX:



Picked on February 15th at  $35.54
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              1/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    4.40 mln




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

AnnTaylor Stores - ANN - close: 43.92 change: -0.54 stop: 41.40

It has been a decent week for shares of ANN.  The mid-week rally
sent the stock higher with a little help from an upgrade by UBS.
The analyst raised ANN to a "buy" and put a $50 price target on
the stock.  $50 is below ANN's current P&F price target near $70
but we don't mind.  Our first target is $47.50.  If you feel like
you missed your entry you may get another chance.  We suspect
that ANN may pull back again toward the $43 level before its next
jump higher.  Patient traders can look for a bounce there.  If
the broader market indices see any heavy selling then ANN is
likely to test the $42 level instead.  Watch out for Wal-Mart's
earnings report on Feb. 19th (before the market opens).  If WMT's
numbers are good, then the RLX index should rise.  If WMT issues
any negative comments it could weigh on the whole sector.  We
will leave our stop at 41.40.

Annotated chart:




Picked on February 08 at $42.68
Gain since picked:       + 1.24
Earnings Date          03/09/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       790 thousand



---

The Boeing Company - BA - close: 44.45 change: +0.08 stop: 41.49

Friday's broad market weakness certainly didn't seem to affect
shares of BA, as the stock managed to close in the green
(although just barely), even though the DOW Transports ($TRAN)
slid back by more than 1.1%.  The stock just continues to hold
near its highs in preparation for our expected breakout over the
$45.05 level.  Of course, we need to wait for a move over that
level to activate our trigger on the play before entering the
play.   Momentum entries on the initial breakout certainly make
sense, although more cautious traders can opt to wait for a
subsequent pullback to support near $44 before playing.  As noted
on Wednesday, once BA clears the $45 resistance level, we're
looking for the stock to make a run at next major resistance at
$50.

Picked on February 11th at  $44.49
Change since picked          -0.04
Earnings Date              1/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    3.21 mln




---

Linen N Things - LIN - close: 32.90 chg: -0.48 stop: 29.99

Shares of LIN have performed even better than our other retail
play in ANN.  LIN broke out above resistance at $32.00 on
Wednesday and bulls followed through with another strong
performance on Thursday even though the broader markets were
negative.  Friday's session saw some fireworks after Deutsche
Securities upgrade the stock from "hold" to "buy".  The analyst
firm also raised its price target on LIN from $35 to $40 and
expects LIN to out perform its peers.  That's good news for us!
We were a little surprised to see LIN open higher and quickly
trade to the $35.00 mark on Friday morning.  The $35-36 region
was our initial profit target and LIN made it within a week.
Unfortunately, the market-wide decline on Friday also hit LIN and
traders decided to do a little profit taking after a strong week.
We would expect LIN to pull back to the $32 level, which should
be new support.  A bounce from $32 may be the next entry point
for interested bulls.

Annotated chart:



Picked on February 08 at $31.64
Gain since picked:       + 1.26
Earnings Date          02/04/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       557 thousand



---

Schering-Plough - SGP - close: 18.41 change: +0.01 stop: 17.00

Charts don't get much flatter than what we saw from SGP last
week.  It looked so good a week ago, having just broken out above
the $18.50 level, but the enthusiasm seemed to leave the
Pharmaceutical sector (DRG.X) last week, and SGP fell back to
that breakout level, where it drifted along for the most of the
week.  The good news is that while price has been holding flat
near $18.50, the daily Stochastics have fallen back near oversold
territory and are threatening to turn up.  That means any dip
down near the $18 support level looks good for new entries,
especially with the 50-dma ($17.60) now rising to help reinforce
that support.  Traders that would prefer to enter on strength
will need to wait for a breakout over the 2/05 high of $19.09.
Just keep in mind that SGP doesn't tend to make sustained
breakouts.  The stock has been out of favor for so long that each
breakout is hit by a bout of selling that drives it down to
higher support before the next bullish move.  That means the best
entries will be found on the pullbacks.  Maintain stops at $17,
just over the 200-dma ($17.06).

Picked on February 8th at   $18.55
Change since picked          -0.14
Earnings Date              1/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    6.02 mln





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Golden Star Rsrcs. - GSS - close: 6.10 change: -0.09 stop: 5.50

For investors, the key event last week was Greenspan telling all
who would listen that interest rates were going to stay low for
awhile and the dollar weakness was not a problem.  By early on
Friday, the Dollar index (DX00y) had tagged a fresh multi-year
low, yet gold stocks couldn't build on their recent gains.  Over
the past week, gold has been outpacing the gold shares to the
upside and this is clearly seen in the price action of GSS, which
has been stalled just below the 50-dma ($6.40) for the past four
sessions.  We're going to need a breakout over that 50-dma if GSS
is going to reach our $7.00 target and that breakout is the best
trigger to use for initiating new positions.  While the 50-dma
has been resistance, GSS has been finding support at its 30-dma
($5.97) and combined with the 10-dma ($5.95) and the 100-dma
($5.86), there should be strong support between current prices
and our $5.50 stop.  Note that daily Stochastics are just
starting to drop down from overbought territory, so it might take
a couple more days of sideways to down price action before the
bulls are ready to run again.

Picked on February 8th at    $5.94
Change since picked          +0.16
Earnings Date              2/02/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.76 mln





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Netegrity, Inc. - NETE - close: 9.40 change: -0.34 stop: 10.50

The day after we initiated coverage, NETE dropped just far enough
to activate our $9.00 entry trigger and then proceeded to rebound
for the next few days, reaching as high as $10.29 on Wednesday
before the sellers started leaning on the stock.  Fortunately,
that rebound didn't tap our $10.50 stop and the stock is once
again falling under its own weight, albeit on moderate volume.
Friday's session saw NETE fall back under the 200-dma and with
daily Stochastics now in a full bearish roll, it looks like we'll
be testing that support just under $9.00.  The failed rally near
$10 made for a great entry point, just as we expected it might
and the next logical entry will be on a drop under the 2/05
intraday low at $8.83.  We're still targeting a drop to at least
$8.00, with potential for a move as low as major support at
$7.00.  Maintain stops at $10.50 for now.

Picked on February 4th at    $9.16
Change since picked          +0.24
Earnings Date              1/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       709 K





==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

BRL announces a 3-for-2 stock split

Before the opening bell on Friday Barr Pharmaceuticals, previously
known as Barr labs, (NYSE:BRL) announced that its Board of
Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its common shares.

The split will take place as a 50% stock dividend and will be
payable on March 15th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of
February 23rd.  Fractional shares will be paid in cash.

Shares of BRL will begin trading at their split-adjusted price on
March 16th.  This split marks BRL's fifth stock split in eight
years.


About the company:
Barr Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and its subsidiaries are engaged in the
development, manufacture and marketing of generic and proprietary
pharmaceuticals. (Source: Company Press Release)

---

LWAY cultures a 2-for-1 split

Just after the closing bell Lifeway Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:LWAY)
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock
split, its first stock split in the company's history.

The payable date for the 2-for-1 split is March 8th, 2004 for
shareholders on record as of February 27th.  This will increase
the number of outstanding shares to 8.4 million.

About the company:
Lifeway, named as Chicago's 28th fastest-growing public firm by
Crain's Chicago Business, is a manufacturer of cultured, probiotic
and functional food products in the health food industry, and is
America's leading supplier of the cultured dairy product known as
kefir. The Company markets 12 flavors of kefir and does a
successful business exporting its products to Canada. The Company
also participates in the organic and soy markets with Lifeway
Organic(TM), Organic Kefir and Kefir Cheese, and America's first
soy kefir called SoyTreat(TM). (Source: Company Press Release)


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 02-15-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of February  16, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

===========================================
Market Watch for the week of February  16th
===========================================

Symbol  Co                  Date            Comment

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

NHY    Norsk Hydro           Mon, Feb 16  -----N/A-----
SNY    Sanofi Synthelabo     Mon, Feb 16  -----N/A-----


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ANF    Abercrombie & Fitch CoTue, Feb 17  After the Bell
A      Agilent Technologies  Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
AHM    Amersham              Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
ACGL   Arch Capital Group    Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
ARW    Arrow Electronics     Tue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
BLDP   Ballard Power Systems Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
ITU    Banco Itau Holding FinTue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
BRG    BG Group              Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
COG    Cabot Oil & Gas Corp  Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
CNT    CENTERPOINT PPTYS TR  Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
CCRT   CompuCredit           Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
CMLS   Cumulus Media Inc.    Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
DE     Deere & Co            Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
DDR    DVLP DIVERSIFIED RLTY Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
DCEL   Dobson Communications Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
FRT    Fedl Rlty Inv Trust   Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
FHCC   First Health Group    Tue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
GPC    Genuine Parts         Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
GLG    Glamis Gold Ltd       Tue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
GG     Goldcorp              Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
IMY    Grupo IMSA, S.A.      Tue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
HC     Hanover Compressor    Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
IPXL   Impax Laboratories    Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
KEG    Key Energy Services   Tue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
LPNT   LifePoint Hospitals   Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
MLS    Mills Corp            Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
NFP    National Finl Part    Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
NTES   Netease.com Inc       Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
NTAP   Network Appliance     Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
OMC    Omnicom Group         Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
QGENF  Qiagen N.V.           Tue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
RRI    Reliant Resources     Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
RTRSY  Reuters Group         Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
ROL    Rollins, Inc.         Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
SKE    Spinnaker Exploration Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
TI     Telecom Italia        Tue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
TEVA   Teva Pharmaceutical   Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
TRW    TRW Auto              Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
UAG    Un Auto Group         Tue, Feb 17  -----N/A-----
VAL    Valspar               Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell
YCC    Yankee Candle         Tue, Feb 17  After the Bell
ZLC    Zale Corp             Tue, Feb 17  Before the Bell


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ADCT   ADC                   Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
AAP    Advance Auto Parts    Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
ALD    Allied Capital Corp   Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell
AMT    American Tower Corp.  Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell
AMAT   Applied Materials     Wed, Feb 18  -----N/A-----
AHG    Apria Healthcare GroupWed, Feb 18  -----N/A-----
BHP    BHP Billiton Ltd      Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
VNT    C. A. Nacl Tele de VenWed, Feb 18  After the Bell
CSG    Cadbury Schweppes     Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell
CDX    Catellus Development  Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
CEC    CEC Entertainment     Wed, Feb 18  -----N/A-----
CCI    Crown Castle Intl     Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
ELN    Elan Corp, PLC        Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell
EQY    Equity One            Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
EVG    Evergreen Resources   Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
INTU   Intuit                Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
JNY    Jones Apparel Group   Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell
KOSP   Kos Pharmaceuticals   Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell
LFG    LandAmerica Finl GroupWed, Feb 18  After the Bell
MGM    Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer   Wed, Feb 18  -----N/A-----
OVTI   Omnivision Tech       Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
ROP    Roper Industries      Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
TEX    Terex Corp            Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
TBI    Tom Brown             Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
UNT    Unit                  Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell
UHS    Universal Health Serv Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
WCN    Waste Connections     Wed, Feb 18  After the Bell
WRC    Westport Resources    Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell
WON    Westwood One          Wed, Feb 18  Before the Bell


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

ABB    ABB                   Thu, Feb 19  -----N/A-----
AMCR   Amcor Limited         Thu, Feb 19  -----N/A-----
ANT    Anteon Intl Corp      Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
BEAS   BEA Systems           Thu, Feb 19  After the Bell
CBRL   CBRL Group            Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
CHTR   Charter Comm          Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
CIEN   CIENA Corp            Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
CDE    Coeur d'Alene Mines   Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
CTV    CommScope             Thu, Feb 19  After the Bell
CEI    Crescent Real Estate  Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
DADE   Dade Behring          Thu, Feb 19  After the Bell
DCX    DaimlerChrysler       Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
DEO    Diageo PLC            Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
ELAB   Eon Labs              Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
FE     FirstEnergy           Thu, Feb 19  -----N/A-----
GENZ   Genzyme Corp          Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
GTM    GULFTERRA ENERGY PART Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
HAN    Hanson plc            Thu, Feb 19  -----N/A-----
HCC    HCC Insurance HoldingsThu, Feb 19  After the Bell
HPQ    Hewlett-Packard       Thu, Feb 19  After the Bell
HRL    Hormel Foods Corp     Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
IVX    Ivax                  Thu, Feb 19  -----N/A-----
KG     King Pharmaceuticals  Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
NXTL   Nextel Communications Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
JWN    Nordstrom             Thu, Feb 19  After the Bell
PNRA   Panera Bread          Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
PDCO   Patterson Dental      Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
PCG    PG&E Corp             Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
PHCC   PRIORITY HEALTHCARE   Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
Q      Qwest Communications  Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
RSH    RadioShack Corp       Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
RUK    Reed Elsevier NV/Plc. Thu, Feb 19  -----N/A-----
POOL   SCP Pool Corp         Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
SLVN   Sylvan Learning Sys   Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
TGT    Target Corp           Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
TARO   Taro Pharmaceutical   Thu, Feb 19  -----N/A-----
TEM    Telefonica Moviles    Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
TP     TPG NV                Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
USPI   Un Surgical Part Intl Thu, Feb 19  After the Bell
UVN    Univision Comm        Thu, Feb 19  After the Bell
VCI    Valassis Comm         Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
WMT    Wal-Mart Stores Inc.  Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
WRE    Wash Rl Est Inv Trst  Thu, Feb 19  After the Bell
WGR    Western Gas Resources Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
WMB    Williams Companies IncThu, Feb 19  Before the Bell
YRK    York Intl Corp.       Thu, Feb 19  Before the Bell


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

KNBWY  Kirin Brewery Co      Fri, Feb 20  -----N/A-----


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

NYB     New York Community Bancorp4:3      Feb  17th   Feb  18th
SBGA    Summit Bank Corp          3:2      Feb  17th   Feb  18th
BMS     Bemis Co                  2:1      Feb  17th   Feb  18th
MOG.A   N/A                       3:2      Feb  17th   Feb  18th
OVTI    OmniVision Technologies   2:1      Feb  17th   Feb  18th
SNDK    SanDisk Corp              2:1      Feb  18th   Feb  19th
CCBI    Commercial Capital Bancorp4:3      Feb  20th   Feb  23rd
SLFI    Sterling Finl Corp        5:4      Feb  20th   Feb  23rd
NATI    National Instruments      3:2      Feb  20th   Feb  23rd
ACV     Alberto-Culver Co         3:2      Feb  20th   Feb  23rd
AMG     Affliated Managers Group  3:2      Feb  24th   Feb  25th
SAFM    Sanderson Farms, Inc      3:2      Feb  26th   Feb  27th
ETN     Eaton Corp                2:1      Feb  27th   Mar   1st
CNI     Canadian National Railway 3:2      Feb  27th   Mar   1st
AME     AMETEK Inc                2:1      Feb  27th   Mar   1st


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

We still have a few earnings laggards but many on Wall Street
consider earnings season over.  Markets are closed on Monday.
We'll have a number of economic reports to keep our interest
throughout the week.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 02/16/04
----------------
-Markets Closed for President's Day-


-----------------
Tuesday, 02/17/04
-----------------
NY Empire State Index (BB) Feb  Forecast:    36.4  Previous:     39.2
Industrial Production (DM) Jan  Forecast:    0.7%  Previous:     0.1%
Capacity Utilization (DM)  Jan  Forecast:   76.2%  Previous:    75.8%


-------------------
Wednesday, 02/18/04
-------------------
Housing Starts (BB)        Jan  Forecast:  2.000M  Previous:   2.088M
Building Permits (BB)      Jan  Forecast:  1.910M  Previous:   1.953M


------------------
Thursday, 02/19/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      02/14  Forecast:     N/A   Previous:     N/A
PPI (BB)                   Jan  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.3%
Core PPI (BB)              Jan  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:    -0.1%
Leading Indicators (DM)    Jan  Forecast:    0.5%  Previous:     0.2%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)      Feb  Forecast:    35.0  Previous:     38.8
Semi Book-to-Bill report

----------------
Friday, 02/20/04
----------------
CPI (BB)                   Jan  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.2%
Core CPI (BB)              Jan  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.1%


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

MRK     Merck & Co                 48.88    +0.57
MWD     Morgan Stanley             59.75    +0.70
FRE     Freddie Mac                64.37    +0.66
CAJ     Canon Inc (ADR)            48.75    +1.15
MMC     Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc   48.96    +0.52


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

RYG     Royal Group Tech           12.71    +1.35
ZQK     Quicksilver Inc            19.08    +1.26


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

ADI     Analog Devices Inc         50.64    +1.65
KB      Kookmin Bank               44.19    +2.34
AET     Aetna Inc New              77.50    +2.70
HB      Hillenbrand Ind            70.01    +5.64


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

DCX     Daimlerchrysler Ag         46.35    -1.15
CSR     Credit Suisse Group        37.08    -1.01
BF      BASF Ag (ADS)              53.43    -1.71
BSY     British Sky Broadcasting Gp56.93    -2.07
MHS     Medco Health Solutions     34.95    -1.10


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

EQR     Equity Residential         28.97    -0.44
ENDP    Endo Pharmaceutical Hld    23.20    -0.93
MNT     Mentor Corp Minnesota      28.43    -0.27


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