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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 02/17/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 02-17-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Home In The Range
Watch List:       UTEK, BDK, TOL, BG
Market Sentiment: Another Broad-Based Rally

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      02-17-2004           High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10714.88 + 87.00 10735.25 10628.74 1.82 bln   2379/ 888
NASDAQ   2080.35 + 26.80  2084.72  2068.01 1.64 bln   2067/1125
S&P 100   571.24 +  5.32   572.28   565.92   Totals   4446/2013
S&P 500  1156.99 + 11.18  1158.98  1145.81
W5000   11284.06 +110.10 11298.52 11174.00
RUS 2000  594.48 +  9.34   594.48   585.14
DJ TRANS 2920.74 +  4.20  2926.70  2896.59
VIX        15.40 -  0.18    15.96    15.32
VXO (VIX-O)15.56 -  0.07    16.15    15.24
VXN        23.87 -  0.27    25.40    23.66
Total Volume 3,728M
Total UpVol  2,787M
Total DnVol    896M
Total Adv  4992
Total Dcl  2329
52wk Highs  746
52wk Lows     9
TRIN       0.65
NAZTRIN    0.66
PUT/CALL   0.88
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Home In The Range

Positive events in the chip sector and takeover speculation
sent the indexes back to the top of their recent ranges. The
coming option expiration probably helped with the futures up
substantially before the cash markets opened for trading. For
a month known for consolidations February is not following the
historical trend.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily



The morning started strong with the NY Empire State Survey at
42.1 and well above consensus of 39.5. This was a record high
for this survey and suggests on the surface that the health of
the manufacturing sector in New York is robust. However, New
Orders were flat at 34.9 and shipments fell sharply to 26.6
from 41.4. The decrease in shipments came from only 17% of
the respondents but it was enough to knock the number back to
the October level. 57% of the respondents still expect growth
over the next six months. Prices paid rose to 33.6 from 27.9
and the employment component fell to 16.5 from 24.5. This shows
that while the overall outlook is good there are still some
cracks in the foundation. The big drop in the employment
component does not bode well for an increase in the various
jobs reports in the coming months.

Industrial Production rose +0.8% in January and slightly over
the consensus estimates. December's numbers were revised lower
and knocked production back to +0.0% for the December period.
Capacity Utilization finally moved back over 76% after nearly
a year at lower levels. All the major components were either
flat or rose in January. The bad news? Utility output rose
+5.2% due to the cold weather and contributed strongly to the
production gains. Since utility output is not normally a job
creator or indications of a positive consumer trend the impact
is really negative. The majority of news sources that report
on this economic number will not likely disclose this impact.
That means 99.9% of traders will only see the headline number
and assume it was good news when in reality it is questionable.

The Housing Market Index fell again to 65 and the lowest level
since last July. All components fell with present conditions
falling to 72 from 76. The six-month outlook fell from 76 to
73 and the potential traffic numbers fell from 51 to 46. The
drop in traffic below 50 indicates the majority of builders
are reporting fewer lookers. On the surface this would look
negative but I feel the weather is the main contributing
factor. We have had a very cold January with multiple
blizzards and those conditions do not prompt many buyers
to cruise the suburbs looking for an open house. With interest
rates still low I expect these numbers to rise dramatically
when warmer weather appears.

Microsoft learned today that the EU had refused to accept
their proposed antitrust settlement. Microsoft had offered
to include a CD with competitors software with each Windows
system released and the EU said it was not enough. Since the
competition is only a download away today it remains to be
seen what the EU wants. If you want to use Real Networks
instead of Windows Media Player it only takes a couple
minutes to download the software now but you actually have
to decide you want to try it and go look up the website. If
MSFT included a CD with every Windows system it might actually
gain some impulse customers Real Networks might never have
had. Evidently the EU wants Microsoft to include the software
in the installation much like AOL is now. That way on every
new installation you would have a couple more icons to move
to the recycle bin once your system was running.

John Deere reported blowout earnings for the last quarter and
soared +3.00 in regular trading. Earnings more than doubled
over the same period last year. The blamed the gains on low
interest rates, tax cuts and strong demand for agriculture
products around the globe. DE reported +68 cents per share
compared to analyst's estimates of only 52 cents. Caterpillar
also reported a +11% growth in sales over the last 90 days
with a +27% gain in North America. On a smaller scale Toro
announced that they now expect to earn between 34 - 36 cents
per share compared to previous guidance of 15 - 20 cents. It
appears there is a revival underway in the outdoor equipment
sector that spans all price ranges.

Amazon said it was full of hot air and the cost of that air
was rising. AMZN uses plastic bags of air as packing material
in their shipments. These air pillows are produced with natural
gas and the spike in gas rates had pushed the cost of the air
bags up by +40%. The stock lost another -85 cents and closed
right on its 200 dma at 45.53. AMZN has been riding the line
for the last ten trading sessions and was trying to rebound
until the increased cost news hit the airwaves. Also making
news was a drop of -7% in the shares owned by Bezos. He now
claims ownership of only 26% of AMZN shares. Raising some
vacation money Jeff?

Wal-Mart rose +1.20 on news that same store sales came in at
the high end of its 3% - 5% growth estimate for February. The
news came only two days before WMT is scheduled to report
earnings. WMT said its average ticket was up and sales were
in its high profit categories of apparel, pharmacy and
Valentine's items.

Intel made several announcements today including upgrading its
Xeon server chips to 64-bit technology. The announcements at
its developer conference were aimed to gain support for its
64-bit product and delay acceptance of the AMD chip. Microsoft
also made press releases about the progress of the Windows-XP64
product. CEO Craig Barrett said plans for product development
and release were right on schedule. He also said they were
seeing "sustained growth in processor sales" that indicated
to them a continuing IT recovery. Twice during the speeches
the comments provided a spike in the market. INTC rose +67
cents but did not get very far away from the $30 price magnet
that has been tough to escape for the last two weeks.

After the bell BRCM announced it was holding a conference call
on Wednesday to discuss a substantial improvement in their
business outlook. The stock jumped +$3 in after hours trading.
The call will be at 1:45 Pacific time. No further details were
given and a spokesman would not say what period would be discussed.
Month, quarter, year? It makes a big difference and no clues were
available.

CSCO announced a new video over IP solution for corporate
accounts. This Video-OIP solution will run $200 per user and
is expected to take the Voice-OIP application to the next level.
CSCO also announced that expensing employee stock options would
have knocked -43% off its most recent earnings if forced to
account for them in regular earnings. Earnings would have been
6 cents instead of a dime.

AT&T Wireless (AWE) finally got a bid it was happy with at $15,
all cash, from Cingular Wireless. This will propel the SBC/BLS
joint venture to the lead in the U.S. wireless race with 46 mil
customers. The deal will still have to be approved by the
government but is not expected to be denied. The baby bells
see wireless growth as the only way to compensate for the drop
in their traditional wireline business.

In other takeover news Disney declined the Comcast offer as
too cheap. Comcast said they did not want to pay more and the
companies are at a standoff. If another bidder does not appear
and Disney stock drops once the speculation cools then Comcast
will probably revive their offer. Until then it is a waiting
game.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics cancelled the PPI release that
was scheduled for Thursday citing "unexpected difficulties"
in data conversion. They have not announced when the PPI will
be rescheduled. It took me several minutes to access the
BLS website where the notice was posted with a continuous
message of "too many people accessing the website at this
time". Evidently quite a few people were interested in the
sudden cancellation.

The markets gapped open Tuesday and never looked back. The Dow
came within 11 points of its two year high made last week at
10746. The index was very strong despite weakness in DIS, SBC
and IBM. If the entire market was up to the Dow there would be
little doubt we were going higher. However, the Nasdaq stalled
against the upper resistance range at 2085 that held it back
last week. The Nasdaq had a good day at +26 points but it just
seemed to be filled with tension that it could break at any
moment. The two strongest indexes for the day were still the
SOX and the Russell. While neither are close to their highs
they led the other indexes once again with the Russell closing
near the high of the day.

Make no mistake this was a very bullish day. Advancers beat
decliners 5:2 and up volume beat down volume 3:1. The only
negative was light volume overall. All the indexes ended near
the top of their recent range and there was no major selling
at the close. The only negative after the close was an
earnings miss by Agilent. They missed earnings by a penny.
NTAP beat by a penny, PLAB beat by five cents, NTES beat by
+4 cents and SIMG by a penny. The various futures are mixed
but not showing any indications of selling before tomorrow.

For us to move up from here the Nasdaq has to break the 2085
resistance. Once that level is behind us the Dow could move
to a new high. This may sound like overt bullishness but the
supporting internals are very strong. Remember this is
normally a consolidation month. ANY forward progress should
be looked upon thankfully. The BRCM announcement after the
close along with several positive tech earnings should keep
the pressure on the bears and leave the bulls in control.

The potential problems are the pickup in economic reports
the rest of the week and the AMAT earnings tomorrow after
the close. Nobody is expecting any bad news from AMAT but
you can never be too careful. Initial support for the
Nasdaq is 2065 but it could easily drift lower if we run
out of excitement. Initial support for the Dow is 10680
and then 10600 but we are at the top of the range. We could
easily drift lower for sometime and still be in an up trend.
Should we move up from here a move over 10750 should generate
additional short covering and attract those earnings run
buyers off the sidelines.

The Nasdaq pattern worries me. We currently have a lower
high in progress with the Nasdaq struggling to break 2085.
Should this resistance hold we could easily retest the
50 dma at 2034 or even horizontal support at 2000. We need
to break the 2085 resistance quickly and strongly to banish
thoughts of a retest and bring buyers back into the market.

There were several comments today suggesting this rally
was option related. It could be but I have nothing to base
that opinion on. The volume was light and normally option
related rallies come on heavy volume. With expiration on
Friday traders are running out of time to close positions.
With the three-day weekend I would have expected most big
players to have closed positions by last Friday rather than
face the additional event risk of world markets being open
while ours were closed.

Wednesday will be a pivotal day. If the Dow can move higher
it could easily set a new high and help drag the Nasdaq
through its current resistance levels. Just remember that
any pullback to the middle of its range (10600) is just
consolidation and would be normal. I would also consider
it another buying opportunity. It is too soon to expect
the April earnings run to begin in earnest so take whatever
gains the market gives us with gratitude.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Ultratech Inc. - UTEK - close: 27.48 change: +1.93

WHAT TO WATCH: The bulls certainly weren't timid about buying the
dip in shares of UTEK on Tuesday, reversing Friday's close under
the 200-dma and it looks like the rebound is underway.  Entries
near current levels look good in advance of a continued rally up
towards the $32 level.  Watch for possible resistance at the 50-
dma near $29 and use a stop at $25.50, just under Friday's close.




---

Black & Decker Corp. - BDK - close: 53.88 change: +1.04

WHAT TO WATCH: Following a bit of post-earnings volatility, BDK
is back on the bullish path, breaking out to new highs on Tuesday
and looking like it wants to continue higher.  Today's touch of
$54 was the best level for the stock since late 1999 and a
continued breakout could have the $60 level in play as an
eventual target on this rally.  Use a trigger over today's high
and use a stop just below the 50-dma.




---

Toll Brothers, Inc. - TOL - close: 42.52 change: +1.60

WHAT TO WATCH: Housing stocks bounced higher again on Tuesday and
TOL gained nearly 4% to close right on the cusp of a breakout to
new highs.  It looks like the bulls want to drive the stock
higher into the company's earnings report on February 26th, and
that leaves us with a clear momentum trade setup.  Use a trigger
over $43 and enjoy the ride higher over the next week, targeting
a run to the $47-48 area.




---

Bunge Ltd. - BG - close: 37.59 change: +0.69

WHAT TO WATCH: After a strong upward surge following its earnings
announcement on February 3rd, BG definitely looks extended.  But
at the same time, it looks poised for another breakout and if
successful could provide a quick bullish opportunity for
aggressive traders.  Use a trigger over $38 and then look for a
rally towards the $41-42 area.  Use a tight stop just under the
10-dma and last week's consolidation.




---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

GTW $5.10 - GTW is definitely playing third fiddle to the likes
of DELL and HPQ, but the price chart is looking awfully strong
here.  Today's nearly 4% advance has the stock on the cusp of a
major breakout over nearly 4 months of resistance.  Use a trigger
over today's high ($5.20) and target a move to the $6.00 area,
right at the top of the late October gap.

NXTL $28.77 - Now here's an aggressive contrarian play for those
that like to play momentum.  NXTL surged strongly higher on
Tuesday ahead of the company's earnings report on Thursday and
we're thinking the bulls may be setting up to be disappointed.
With very strong resistance at $30-31, this could offer a nice
bearish post-earnings play.  Look to short resistance AFTER the
report is released on a "sell the news" play.  Target a quick
drop back to the $28 area on a fill of today's gap.

AMZN $45.53 - Bearish trade candidates are tough to come by in
the current bullish market environment, but AMZN looks like a
good bet.  Note that we've been playing the feeble rebound from
the 200-dma over the past week on our regular playlist, but with
that rebound apparently failing, we're dropping that play tonight
and this may be a good opportunity to switch sides.  Use a
trigger under $44 and then target next support at $40.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Another Broad-Based Rally
- J. Brown

Investors returned from their long, three-day weekend feeling
refreshed and in a buying mood.  Helping set the tone were
positive economic reports and a new round of merger
announcements.  The Dow Transports were probably the weakest
sector of the market today due to one brokerage downgrading the
truckers and another downgrading the railroads over concerns of a
rising interest rate environment.  Obviously, these two analysts
are planning ahead since the Fed has stated it will remain
patient before raising rates and many believe it could be 2005
before the FOMC raises rates as we wait for our economy to
generate substantial job growth.

State Street Bank issued a report on their investor confidence
index.  They claim investor confidence has fallen sharply since
December and they interpret the drop as institutional investors
becoming much more cautious although still focused on equities.
The news certainly didn't affect traders today.  The rally was
very widespread with every major sector index closing in the
green.  The best performer today was the airline index (XAL),
which gained 3.26%.  This put the XAL above its 50-dma and poised
for a run towards its January highs.

The second best performer today was the XAU Gold & Silver index,
which added 3%.  This also happened to be a bullish breakout over
its 50-dma.  Boosting the group was a $5 gain in gold futures to
$416 an ounce.  Rounding out the top three sectors is the
homebuilders.  The DJUSHB home construction index added 2.36% to
close over the 600 level for the first time since late December.
Obviously investors are not concerned about interest rates rising
or they wouldn't be pouring money into this industry.  Granted a
number of builders have stated that business is so good they
would not expect any slow down even if interest rates did rise a
bit.

The last few weeks have seen the DFI defense sector and the IUX
insurance sector as the leaders setting new highs on a regular
basis.  Noteworthy today was the new all-time closing high for
the Defense sector over the 700 level.  Plus, we have the XBD
broker-dealer index hitting a new all-time high.  The recent out
break of mergers and speculation that we'll continue to see
consolidation has sent these deal-makers strongly higher.  Given
the two bank mergers today we also note that the BKX and BIX are
near their highs.

As a matter of fact several of the leading sectors have been able
to maintain their gains and today's rally sent them right back
toward their recent peaks.  The retailers have been doing well
and should continue to do well as we hear more earnings news from
the group this week.  Healthcare and biotech are also near their
highs.  Plus the OIX oil index is poised for a breakout over the
330 level as crude oil prices creep towards the $35 a barrel.

Overall it was a very bullish day.  Advancing stocks crushed
decliners 3-to-1 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume
was more than 3 times down volume on the NYSE and almost as
strong on the NASDAQ.

Tomorrow look for more strength in the techs, especially chip
stocks, after Broadcom (BRCM) announced tonight plans to host a
conference call after the bell on Wednesday to discuss its
stronger business outlook.  This sent the stock higher by more
than 6% in after hours trading.  Plus, we'll hear from Applied
Materials (AMAT), the largest chip equipment maker in the world,
as they report earnings after the close on Wednesday.

Wall Street will also be digesting the latest housing starts and
building permits tomorrow morning.  Both reports are expected to
show a slight dip from previous readings but still at
historically high levels.  On Thursday we'll have the PPI report,
leading indicators, weekly jobless claims and the semi book-to-
bill report.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10746
52-week Low :  7416
Current     : 10714

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10603
 50-dma: 10408
200-dma:  9588



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1158
52-week Low :  788
Current     : 1156

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1143
 50-dma: 1115
200-dma: 1031



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low :  795
Current     : 1506

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1491
 50-dma: 1478
200-dma: 1343


-----------------------------------------------------------------

I'm actually a bit surprised that the VXO didn't drop further
today given the strong broad-based rally. The VIX and VXN also
posted similar losses - mild and inside the recent trading range.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.40 -0.18
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.56 -0.07
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 23.87 -0.27

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.88        830,958       730,243
Equity Only    0.81        691,467       561,932
OEX            1.29         32,917        42,510
QQQ            7.88         21,541       169,743


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          77.6    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    70.0    + 1     Bear Alert
Dow Indust.   86.7    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       88.2    + 0     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       89.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.95
10-dma: 0.98
21-dma: 0.96
55-dma: 0.98


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2146      2018
Decliners     723      1057

New Highs     373       239
New Lows        8         7

Up Volume   1365M     1122M
Down Vol.    391M      399M

Total Vol.  1777M     1568M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/10/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

No change for the Commercial traders.  Small Traders have
grown slightly more bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/23/04      422,135   407,626    14,509     1.7%
01/27/04      417,089   410,930     6,159     0.7%
02/03/04      411,920   414,596    (2,676)   (0.3%)
02/10/04      412,217   414,044    (1,827)   (0.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04      141,107   100,090    41,017    17.0%
01/27/04      143,089    87,828    55,261    23.9%
02/03/04      141,465    81,926    59,539    26.7%
02/10/04      143,496    80,362    63,134    28.2%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials are starting to put some money to work and we're
seeing another jump in contracts for both longs and shorts.
Small traders have pared back their longs a bit and put some
of that money on the short side.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
01/23/04      233,867   307,122    (73,255)  (13.5%)
01/27/04      291,166   334,618    (43,452)  ( 6.9%)
02/03/04      280,519   346,042    (65,523)  (10.5%)
02/10/04      297,601   356,630    (59,029)  ( 9.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04     187,270     57,196   130,074    53.2%
01/27/04     154,485     60,556    93,929    43.7%
02/03/04     133,293     55,476    77,817    41.2%
02/10/04     110,480     58,428    52,052    30.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Not much change from the Commercial traders but they are
a tiny bit more bullish here.  Small Traders have significantly
bumped up their long positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04       42,823     39,442     3,381    4.1%
01/27/04       43,704     40,951     2,753    3.3%
02/03/04       43,600     41,441     2,159    2.5%
02/10/04       44,406     40,439     3,967    4.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04        9,180    11,371    (2,191)  (10.7%)
01/27/04       10,137    10,715    (  578)  ( 2.8%)
02/03/04        8,907    13,729    (4,822)  (21.3%)
02/10/04        9,906    13,018    (3,112)  (13.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Not much change this week for Commercials.  Small traders
are slightly more bearish on the Dow.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
01/23/04       16,403     9,252    7,151      27.9%
01/27/04       16,536     8,404    8,162      32.7%
02/03/04       17,765     9,619    8,146      29.7%
02/10/04       21,764    11,974    9,790      29.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
01/23/04        6,068    10,183   (4,115)   (25.3%)
01/27/04        7,240    12,372   (5,132)   (26.2%)
02/03/04        6,352    13,113   (6,761)   (34.7%)
02/10/04        6,267    14,220   (7,953)   (38.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 02-17-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments: SGP, GSS
Closed Plays:     AMZN
Stock Splits:     XTO

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

GSS - long
Adjust from $5.50 up to $5.80

SGP - long
Adjust from $17.00 up to $17.50


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 45.53 change: -0.85 stop: 44.00

Moving just high enough to tempt us into playing the rebound off
the 200-dma last week, shares of AMZN were soundly rejected at
resistance near $48 and it looks like we have a reversal
underway.  Instead of rebounding with the rest of the market on
Tuesday, AMZN extended its losses from Friday and broke back
under the 200-dma (currently $45.66).  To make matters worse, the
daily Stochastics oscillator has just completed a short-cycle
bearish reversal, which looks bad for the bulls.  Next up will be
a test of our $44 stop and based on the sharp increase in volume
today, it looks doubtful that AMZN will be able to hold support.
Rather than take the risk of further downside, we're closing the
play for a loss tonight.  Use any rebound tomorrow to exit at a
more favorable level.

Picked on February 11th at  $47.14
Change since picked          -1.61
Earnings Date              1/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    9.67 mln





=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------

XTO energizes a 5-for-4 stock split


After the bell this evening XTO Energy Inc (NYSE:XTO) announced
that its Board of Directors had approved a 5-for-4 stock split.

This is XTO's sixth stock split since 1997.  The payable date for
the split is March 18th, 2004 for shareholders on record as of
March 3rd.  Shares should begin trading post-split on March 18th.
Fractional shares will be paid in cash.  The company has opted to
keep their one cent cash dividend unchanged and will be paid post-
split in April.

About the company:
XTO Energy Inc. is a premier domestic natural gas producer engaged
in the acquisition, exploitation and development of quality, long-
lived gas and oil properties. The Company, whose predecessor
companies were established in 1986, completed its initial public
offering in May 1993. Its properties are concentrated in Texas,
New Mexico, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, Colorado, Alaska
and Louisiana. (Source: Company Press Release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

KFT     Kraft Foods Inc            33.69     +0.75
PTR     PetroChina Co              54.13     +2.78
RD      Royal Dutch                48.47     +0.75
MWD     Morgan Stanley             60.59     +0.84
ABN     ABN Amro Holdings          24.62     +0.71
UNH     UnitedHealth Group         60.50     +0.83

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

AWE     AT&T Wireless              13.78     +1.96
CNH     CNH Global                 18.75     +1.45
RNWK    RealNetworks Inc            6.63     +1.16
ATI     Allegheny Tech             12.59     +2.04
OPSW    Opsware Inc                 9.47     +1.06

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

MER     Merrill Lynch              62.54     +1.99
SBUX    Starbucks corp             38.75     +2.05
DE      Deere & Co                 67.00     +2.99
AET     Aetna Inc                  78.82     +1.32
RTRSY   Reuters Group              49.15     +8.68
MBT     Mobile Telesys            109.15     +7.05
OCR     Omnicare Inc               46.70     +1.68

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MSA     Mine Safety Appliance      24.38     -1.03
STC     Stewart Info Services      38.15     -7.05
JBSS    John Sanfilippo & Son      32.45     -2.63

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

NCC     National City Corp         34.56     -0.83
MAA     Mid America Apartment      34.60     -0.46


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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

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