PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 02-17-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Home In The Range Watch List: UTEK, BDK, TOL, BG Market Sentiment: Another Broad-Based Rally ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 02-17-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10714.88 + 87.00 10735.25 10628.74 1.82 bln 2379/ 888 NASDAQ 2080.35 + 26.80 2084.72 2068.01 1.64 bln 2067/1125 S&P 100 571.24 + 5.32 572.28 565.92 Totals 4446/2013 S&P 500 1156.99 + 11.18 1158.98 1145.81 W5000 11284.06 +110.10 11298.52 11174.00 RUS 2000 594.48 + 9.34 594.48 585.14 DJ TRANS 2920.74 + 4.20 2926.70 2896.59 VIX 15.40 - 0.18 15.96 15.32 VXO (VIX-O)15.56 - 0.07 16.15 15.24 VXN 23.87 - 0.27 25.40 23.66 Total Volume 3,728M Total UpVol 2,787M Total DnVol 896M Total Adv 4992 Total Dcl 2329 52wk Highs 746 52wk Lows 9 TRIN 0.65 NAZTRIN 0.66 PUT/CALL 0.88 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Home In The Range Positive events in the chip sector and takeover speculation sent the indexes back to the top of their recent ranges. The coming option expiration probably helped with the futures up substantially before the cash markets opened for trading. For a month known for consolidations February is not following the historical trend. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily The morning started strong with the NY Empire State Survey at 42.1 and well above consensus of 39.5. This was a record high for this survey and suggests on the surface that the health of the manufacturing sector in New York is robust. However, New Orders were flat at 34.9 and shipments fell sharply to 26.6 from 41.4. The decrease in shipments came from only 17% of the respondents but it was enough to knock the number back to the October level. 57% of the respondents still expect growth over the next six months. Prices paid rose to 33.6 from 27.9 and the employment component fell to 16.5 from 24.5. This shows that while the overall outlook is good there are still some cracks in the foundation. The big drop in the employment component does not bode well for an increase in the various jobs reports in the coming months. Industrial Production rose +0.8% in January and slightly over the consensus estimates. December's numbers were revised lower and knocked production back to +0.0% for the December period. Capacity Utilization finally moved back over 76% after nearly a year at lower levels. All the major components were either flat or rose in January. The bad news? Utility output rose +5.2% due to the cold weather and contributed strongly to the production gains. Since utility output is not normally a job creator or indications of a positive consumer trend the impact is really negative. The majority of news sources that report on this economic number will not likely disclose this impact. That means 99.9% of traders will only see the headline number and assume it was good news when in reality it is questionable. The Housing Market Index fell again to 65 and the lowest level since last July. All components fell with present conditions falling to 72 from 76. The six-month outlook fell from 76 to 73 and the potential traffic numbers fell from 51 to 46. The drop in traffic below 50 indicates the majority of builders are reporting fewer lookers. On the surface this would look negative but I feel the weather is the main contributing factor. We have had a very cold January with multiple blizzards and those conditions do not prompt many buyers to cruise the suburbs looking for an open house. With interest rates still low I expect these numbers to rise dramatically when warmer weather appears. Microsoft learned today that the EU had refused to accept their proposed antitrust settlement. Microsoft had offered to include a CD with competitors software with each Windows system released and the EU said it was not enough. Since the competition is only a download away today it remains to be seen what the EU wants. If you want to use Real Networks instead of Windows Media Player it only takes a couple minutes to download the software now but you actually have to decide you want to try it and go look up the website. If MSFT included a CD with every Windows system it might actually gain some impulse customers Real Networks might never have had. Evidently the EU wants Microsoft to include the software in the installation much like AOL is now. That way on every new installation you would have a couple more icons to move to the recycle bin once your system was running. John Deere reported blowout earnings for the last quarter and soared +3.00 in regular trading. Earnings more than doubled over the same period last year. The blamed the gains on low interest rates, tax cuts and strong demand for agriculture products around the globe. DE reported +68 cents per share compared to analyst's estimates of only 52 cents. Caterpillar also reported a +11% growth in sales over the last 90 days with a +27% gain in North America. On a smaller scale Toro announced that they now expect to earn between 34 - 36 cents per share compared to previous guidance of 15 - 20 cents. It appears there is a revival underway in the outdoor equipment sector that spans all price ranges. Amazon said it was full of hot air and the cost of that air was rising. AMZN uses plastic bags of air as packing material in their shipments. These air pillows are produced with natural gas and the spike in gas rates had pushed the cost of the air bags up by +40%. The stock lost another -85 cents and closed right on its 200 dma at 45.53. AMZN has been riding the line for the last ten trading sessions and was trying to rebound until the increased cost news hit the airwaves. Also making news was a drop of -7% in the shares owned by Bezos. He now claims ownership of only 26% of AMZN shares. Raising some vacation money Jeff? Wal-Mart rose +1.20 on news that same store sales came in at the high end of its 3% - 5% growth estimate for February. The news came only two days before WMT is scheduled to report earnings. WMT said its average ticket was up and sales were in its high profit categories of apparel, pharmacy and Valentine's items. Intel made several announcements today including upgrading its Xeon server chips to 64-bit technology. The announcements at its developer conference were aimed to gain support for its 64-bit product and delay acceptance of the AMD chip. Microsoft also made press releases about the progress of the Windows-XP64 product. CEO Craig Barrett said plans for product development and release were right on schedule. He also said they were seeing "sustained growth in processor sales" that indicated to them a continuing IT recovery. Twice during the speeches the comments provided a spike in the market. INTC rose +67 cents but did not get very far away from the $30 price magnet that has been tough to escape for the last two weeks. After the bell BRCM announced it was holding a conference call on Wednesday to discuss a substantial improvement in their business outlook. The stock jumped +$3 in after hours trading. The call will be at 1:45 Pacific time. No further details were given and a spokesman would not say what period would be discussed. Month, quarter, year? It makes a big difference and no clues were available. CSCO announced a new video over IP solution for corporate accounts. This Video-OIP solution will run $200 per user and is expected to take the Voice-OIP application to the next level. CSCO also announced that expensing employee stock options would have knocked -43% off its most recent earnings if forced to account for them in regular earnings. Earnings would have been 6 cents instead of a dime. AT&T Wireless (AWE) finally got a bid it was happy with at $15, all cash, from Cingular Wireless. This will propel the SBC/BLS joint venture to the lead in the U.S. wireless race with 46 mil customers. The deal will still have to be approved by the government but is not expected to be denied. The baby bells see wireless growth as the only way to compensate for the drop in their traditional wireline business. In other takeover news Disney declined the Comcast offer as too cheap. Comcast said they did not want to pay more and the companies are at a standoff. If another bidder does not appear and Disney stock drops once the speculation cools then Comcast will probably revive their offer. Until then it is a waiting game. The Bureau of Labor Statistics cancelled the PPI release that was scheduled for Thursday citing "unexpected difficulties" in data conversion. They have not announced when the PPI will be rescheduled. It took me several minutes to access the BLS website where the notice was posted with a continuous message of "too many people accessing the website at this time". Evidently quite a few people were interested in the sudden cancellation. The markets gapped open Tuesday and never looked back. The Dow came within 11 points of its two year high made last week at 10746. The index was very strong despite weakness in DIS, SBC and IBM. If the entire market was up to the Dow there would be little doubt we were going higher. However, the Nasdaq stalled against the upper resistance range at 2085 that held it back last week. The Nasdaq had a good day at +26 points but it just seemed to be filled with tension that it could break at any moment. The two strongest indexes for the day were still the SOX and the Russell. While neither are close to their highs they led the other indexes once again with the Russell closing near the high of the day. Make no mistake this was a very bullish day. Advancers beat decliners 5:2 and up volume beat down volume 3:1. The only negative was light volume overall. All the indexes ended near the top of their recent range and there was no major selling at the close. The only negative after the close was an earnings miss by Agilent. They missed earnings by a penny. NTAP beat by a penny, PLAB beat by five cents, NTES beat by +4 cents and SIMG by a penny. The various futures are mixed but not showing any indications of selling before tomorrow. For us to move up from here the Nasdaq has to break the 2085 resistance. Once that level is behind us the Dow could move to a new high. This may sound like overt bullishness but the supporting internals are very strong. Remember this is normally a consolidation month. ANY forward progress should be looked upon thankfully. The BRCM announcement after the close along with several positive tech earnings should keep the pressure on the bears and leave the bulls in control. The potential problems are the pickup in economic reports the rest of the week and the AMAT earnings tomorrow after the close. Nobody is expecting any bad news from AMAT but you can never be too careful. Initial support for the Nasdaq is 2065 but it could easily drift lower if we run out of excitement. Initial support for the Dow is 10680 and then 10600 but we are at the top of the range. We could easily drift lower for sometime and still be in an up trend. Should we move up from here a move over 10750 should generate additional short covering and attract those earnings run buyers off the sidelines. The Nasdaq pattern worries me. We currently have a lower high in progress with the Nasdaq struggling to break 2085. Should this resistance hold we could easily retest the 50 dma at 2034 or even horizontal support at 2000. We need to break the 2085 resistance quickly and strongly to banish thoughts of a retest and bring buyers back into the market. There were several comments today suggesting this rally was option related. It could be but I have nothing to base that opinion on. The volume was light and normally option related rallies come on heavy volume. With expiration on Friday traders are running out of time to close positions. With the three-day weekend I would have expected most big players to have closed positions by last Friday rather than face the additional event risk of world markets being open while ours were closed. Wednesday will be a pivotal day. If the Dow can move higher it could easily set a new high and help drag the Nasdaq through its current resistance levels. Just remember that any pullback to the middle of its range (10600) is just consolidation and would be normal. I would also consider it another buying opportunity. It is too soon to expect the April earnings run to begin in earnest so take whatever gains the market gives us with gratitude. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Ultratech Inc. - UTEK - close: 27.48 change: +1.93 WHAT TO WATCH: The bulls certainly weren't timid about buying the dip in shares of UTEK on Tuesday, reversing Friday's close under the 200-dma and it looks like the rebound is underway. Entries near current levels look good in advance of a continued rally up towards the $32 level. Watch for possible resistance at the 50- dma near $29 and use a stop at $25.50, just under Friday's close. --- Black & Decker Corp. - BDK - close: 53.88 change: +1.04 WHAT TO WATCH: Following a bit of post-earnings volatility, BDK is back on the bullish path, breaking out to new highs on Tuesday and looking like it wants to continue higher. Today's touch of $54 was the best level for the stock since late 1999 and a continued breakout could have the $60 level in play as an eventual target on this rally. Use a trigger over today's high and use a stop just below the 50-dma. --- Toll Brothers, Inc. - TOL - close: 42.52 change: +1.60 WHAT TO WATCH: Housing stocks bounced higher again on Tuesday and TOL gained nearly 4% to close right on the cusp of a breakout to new highs. It looks like the bulls want to drive the stock higher into the company's earnings report on February 26th, and that leaves us with a clear momentum trade setup. Use a trigger over $43 and enjoy the ride higher over the next week, targeting a run to the $47-48 area. --- Bunge Ltd. - BG - close: 37.59 change: +0.69 WHAT TO WATCH: After a strong upward surge following its earnings announcement on February 3rd, BG definitely looks extended. But at the same time, it looks poised for another breakout and if successful could provide a quick bullish opportunity for aggressive traders. Use a trigger over $38 and then look for a rally towards the $41-42 area. Use a tight stop just under the 10-dma and last week's consolidation. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== GTW $5.10 - GTW is definitely playing third fiddle to the likes of DELL and HPQ, but the price chart is looking awfully strong here. Today's nearly 4% advance has the stock on the cusp of a major breakout over nearly 4 months of resistance. Use a trigger over today's high ($5.20) and target a move to the $6.00 area, right at the top of the late October gap. NXTL $28.77 - Now here's an aggressive contrarian play for those that like to play momentum. NXTL surged strongly higher on Tuesday ahead of the company's earnings report on Thursday and we're thinking the bulls may be setting up to be disappointed. With very strong resistance at $30-31, this could offer a nice bearish post-earnings play. Look to short resistance AFTER the report is released on a "sell the news" play. Target a quick drop back to the $28 area on a fill of today's gap. AMZN $45.53 - Bearish trade candidates are tough to come by in the current bullish market environment, but AMZN looks like a good bet. Note that we've been playing the feeble rebound from the 200-dma over the past week on our regular playlist, but with that rebound apparently failing, we're dropping that play tonight and this may be a good opportunity to switch sides. Use a trigger under $44 and then target next support at $40. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Another Broad-Based Rally - J. Brown Investors returned from their long, three-day weekend feeling refreshed and in a buying mood. Helping set the tone were positive economic reports and a new round of merger announcements. The Dow Transports were probably the weakest sector of the market today due to one brokerage downgrading the truckers and another downgrading the railroads over concerns of a rising interest rate environment. Obviously, these two analysts are planning ahead since the Fed has stated it will remain patient before raising rates and many believe it could be 2005 before the FOMC raises rates as we wait for our economy to generate substantial job growth. State Street Bank issued a report on their investor confidence index. They claim investor confidence has fallen sharply since December and they interpret the drop as institutional investors becoming much more cautious although still focused on equities. The news certainly didn't affect traders today. The rally was very widespread with every major sector index closing in the green. The best performer today was the airline index (XAL), which gained 3.26%. This put the XAL above its 50-dma and poised for a run towards its January highs. The second best performer today was the XAU Gold & Silver index, which added 3%. This also happened to be a bullish breakout over its 50-dma. Boosting the group was a $5 gain in gold futures to $416 an ounce. Rounding out the top three sectors is the homebuilders. The DJUSHB home construction index added 2.36% to close over the 600 level for the first time since late December. Obviously investors are not concerned about interest rates rising or they wouldn't be pouring money into this industry. Granted a number of builders have stated that business is so good they would not expect any slow down even if interest rates did rise a bit. The last few weeks have seen the DFI defense sector and the IUX insurance sector as the leaders setting new highs on a regular basis. Noteworthy today was the new all-time closing high for the Defense sector over the 700 level. Plus, we have the XBD broker-dealer index hitting a new all-time high. The recent out break of mergers and speculation that we'll continue to see consolidation has sent these deal-makers strongly higher. Given the two bank mergers today we also note that the BKX and BIX are near their highs. As a matter of fact several of the leading sectors have been able to maintain their gains and today's rally sent them right back toward their recent peaks. The retailers have been doing well and should continue to do well as we hear more earnings news from the group this week. Healthcare and biotech are also near their highs. Plus the OIX oil index is poised for a breakout over the 330 level as crude oil prices creep towards the $35 a barrel. Overall it was a very bullish day. Advancing stocks crushed decliners 3-to-1 on the NYSE and 2-to-1 on the NASDAQ. Up volume was more than 3 times down volume on the NYSE and almost as strong on the NASDAQ. Tomorrow look for more strength in the techs, especially chip stocks, after Broadcom (BRCM) announced tonight plans to host a conference call after the bell on Wednesday to discuss its stronger business outlook. This sent the stock higher by more than 6% in after hours trading. Plus, we'll hear from Applied Materials (AMAT), the largest chip equipment maker in the world, as they report earnings after the close on Wednesday. Wall Street will also be digesting the latest housing starts and building permits tomorrow morning. Both reports are expected to show a slight dip from previous readings but still at historically high levels. On Thursday we'll have the PPI report, leading indicators, weekly jobless claims and the semi book-to- bill report. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10746 52-week Low : 7416 Current : 10714 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10603 50-dma: 10408 200-dma: 9588 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1158 52-week Low : 788 Current : 1156 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1143 50-dma: 1115 200-dma: 1031 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 795 Current : 1506 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1491 50-dma: 1478 200-dma: 1343 ----------------------------------------------------------------- I'm actually a bit surprised that the VXO didn't drop further today given the strong broad-based rally. The VIX and VXN also posted similar losses - mild and inside the recent trading range. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.40 -0.18 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 15.56 -0.07 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 23.87 -0.27 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.88 830,958 730,243 Equity Only 0.81 691,467 561,932 OEX 1.29 32,917 42,510 QQQ 7.88 21,541 169,743 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 77.6 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 70.0 + 1 Bear Alert Dow Indust. 86.7 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 88.2 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 89.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.95 10-dma: 0.98 21-dma: 0.96 55-dma: 0.98 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 2146 2018 Decliners 723 1057 New Highs 373 239 New Lows 8 7 Up Volume 1365M 1122M Down Vol. 391M 399M Total Vol. 1777M 1568M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/10/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 No change for the Commercial traders. Small Traders have grown slightly more bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 01/23/04 422,135 407,626 14,509 1.7% 01/27/04 417,089 410,930 6,159 0.7% 02/03/04 411,920 414,596 (2,676) (0.3%) 02/10/04 412,217 414,044 (1,827) (0.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/23/04 141,107 100,090 41,017 17.0% 01/27/04 143,089 87,828 55,261 23.9% 02/03/04 141,465 81,926 59,539 26.7% 02/10/04 143,496 80,362 63,134 28.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials are starting to put some money to work and we're seeing another jump in contracts for both longs and shorts. Small traders have pared back their longs a bit and put some of that money on the short side. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 01/23/04 233,867 307,122 (73,255) (13.5%) 01/27/04 291,166 334,618 (43,452) ( 6.9%) 02/03/04 280,519 346,042 (65,523) (10.5%) 02/10/04 297,601 356,630 (59,029) ( 9.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/23/04 187,270 57,196 130,074 53.2% 01/27/04 154,485 60,556 93,929 43.7% 02/03/04 133,293 55,476 77,817 41.2% 02/10/04 110,480 58,428 52,052 30.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Not much change from the Commercial traders but they are a tiny bit more bullish here. Small Traders have significantly bumped up their long positions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 01/23/04 42,823 39,442 3,381 4.1% 01/27/04 43,704 40,951 2,753 3.3% 02/03/04 43,600 41,441 2,159 2.5% 02/10/04 44,406 40,439 3,967 4.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/23/04 9,180 11,371 (2,191) (10.7%) 01/27/04 10,137 10,715 ( 578) ( 2.8%) 02/03/04 8,907 13,729 (4,822) (21.3%) 02/10/04 9,906 13,018 (3,112) (13.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Not much change this week for Commercials. Small traders are slightly more bearish on the Dow. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 01/23/04 16,403 9,252 7,151 27.9% 01/27/04 16,536 8,404 8,162 32.7% 02/03/04 17,765 9,619 8,146 29.7% 02/10/04 21,764 11,974 9,790 29.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 01/23/04 6,068 10,183 (4,115) (25.3%) 01/27/04 7,240 12,372 (5,132) (26.2%) 02/03/04 6,352 13,113 (6,761) (34.7%) 02/10/04 6,267 14,220 (7,953) (38.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 02-17-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: SGP, GSS Closed Plays: AMZN Stock Splits: XTO Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= GSS - long Adjust from $5.50 up to $5.80 SGP - long Adjust from $17.00 up to $17.50 ================================================================= Closed Plays ================================================================= Amazon.com - AMZN - close: 45.53 change: -0.85 stop: 44.00 Moving just high enough to tempt us into playing the rebound off the 200-dma last week, shares of AMZN were soundly rejected at resistance near $48 and it looks like we have a reversal underway. Instead of rebounding with the rest of the market on Tuesday, AMZN extended its losses from Friday and broke back under the 200-dma (currently $45.66). To make matters worse, the daily Stochastics oscillator has just completed a short-cycle bearish reversal, which looks bad for the bulls. Next up will be a test of our $44 stop and based on the sharp increase in volume today, it looks doubtful that AMZN will be able to hold support. Rather than take the risk of further downside, we're closing the play for a loss tonight. Use any rebound tomorrow to exit at a more favorable level. Picked on February 11th at $47.14 Change since picked -1.61 Earnings Date 1/27/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 9.67 mln ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- XTO energizes a 5-for-4 stock split After the bell this evening XTO Energy Inc (NYSE:XTO) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 5-for-4 stock split. This is XTO's sixth stock split since 1997. The payable date for the split is March 18th, 2004 for shareholders on record as of March 3rd. Shares should begin trading post-split on March 18th. Fractional shares will be paid in cash. The company has opted to keep their one cent cash dividend unchanged and will be paid post- split in April. About the company: XTO Energy Inc. is a premier domestic natural gas producer engaged in the acquisition, exploitation and development of quality, long- lived gas and oil properties. The Company, whose predecessor companies were established in 1986, completed its initial public offering in May 1993. Its properties are concentrated in Texas, New Mexico, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, Colorado, Alaska and Louisiana. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change KFT Kraft Foods Inc 33.69 +0.75 PTR PetroChina Co 54.13 +2.78 RD Royal Dutch 48.47 +0.75 MWD Morgan Stanley 60.59 +0.84 ABN ABN Amro Holdings 24.62 +0.71 UNH UnitedHealth Group 60.50 +0.83 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- AWE AT&T Wireless 13.78 +1.96 CNH CNH Global 18.75 +1.45 RNWK RealNetworks Inc 6.63 +1.16 ATI Allegheny Tech 12.59 +2.04 OPSW Opsware Inc 9.47 +1.06 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- MER Merrill Lynch 62.54 +1.99 SBUX Starbucks corp 38.75 +2.05 DE Deere & Co 67.00 +2.99 AET Aetna Inc 78.82 +1.32 RTRSY Reuters Group 49.15 +8.68 MBT Mobile Telesys 109.15 +7.05 OCR Omnicare Inc 46.70 +1.68 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- MSA Mine Safety Appliance 24.38 -1.03 STC Stewart Info Services 38.15 -7.05 JBSS John Sanfilippo & Son 32.45 -2.63 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- NCC National City Corp 34.56 -0.83 MAA Mid America Apartment 34.60 -0.46 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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