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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 02/25/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 02-25-2004
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:  Oversold Bounce?
Watch List:   IGT, JNPR, LPNT, FD

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     02-25-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10601.62 + 35.25 10615.56 10560.07 1.67 bln   1841/ 996
NASDAQ   2022.98 + 17.54  2024.20  2007.73 1.68 bln   1968/1091
S&P 100   565.86 +  2.17   566.74   563.64   Totals   3809/2087
S&P 500  1143.67 +  4.58  1145.24  1138.71
RUS 2000  579.04 +  7.17   579.09   571.56
DJ TRANS 2868.96 +  9.65  2873.27  2849.52
VIX        14.93 -  0.97    16.05    14.93
VXO        14.99 -  0.83    15.98    14.89
VXN        23.55 -  1.13    24.80    23.52
Total Volume 3,718M
Total UpVol  2,648M
Total DnVol  1,024M
52wk Highs     267
52wk Lows       21
TRIN          0.78
PUT/CALL      0.77
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Oversold Bounce?
by James Brown

What felt like a rather slow day on Wall Street actually turned
into a rather bullish session.  Stocks ignored disappointing home
sales data and rising oil and gas prices to focus on positive
comments from Fed chairman Alan Greenspan.  Tech stocks actually
lead the bounce with chip and networking stocks posting strong
gains.  Overall the major indices turned things around to end the
recent losing streak.

Market internals were very bullish with advancing stocks sweeping
past declining issues 18 to 10 on the NYSE and 20 to 11 on the
NASDAQ.  Up volume was better than 2-to-1 over down volume on
both exchanges but total volume was light for the session.  If
you're feeling pessimistic this may look like an oversold bounce
after five days of consecutive losses but the rebound today was
very widespread.  The only sector to turn lower was the XAU gold
& silver index, which lost 1% and only due to the strength in the
U.S. dollar.  Gold futures dropped $8.70 to $396.10 an ounce
after the greenback rose against the euro and the yen.

The Dow Jones Industrial average traded in a relatively tight 50-
point range but remained above support and managed to close over
the 10,600 level.  This bodes well for tomorrow and its short-
term oscillators are suggesting a continuation of the bounce.
The rebound in the NASDAQ is probably more important.  It was
crucial that the tech-heavy NASDAQ hold support at the 2000 level
and today's move should send it back toward overhead resistance
at its 50-dma.

Chart of the DJIA:



Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:



Also noteworthy was the rebound in the Russell 2000 (RUT) and the
Semiconductor index (SOX).  The RUT broke support at its 50-dma
on Monday but never saw any follow through during Tuesday's
session. Today's bounce puts it back over the 50-dma and the
index has put in a new higher low compared to the earlier
February drop. The SOX also made an impressive turnaround with
today's 1.82% gain putting it back above its 100-dma and the 500
mark.  Boosting the SOX was news from the Gartner research group
who said that global semiconductor sales should rise 22.6% in
2004, the largest improvement since 2000.  What I find
interesting is that in Gartner's press release they call their
2004 forecast "deliberately conservative".

Chart of the Russell 2000:



Chart of the Semiconductor Index:



The economic data this morning turned out to be disappointing.
Economists were looking for a dip in existing homes sales to 6.27
million units, down from the previous month's 6.47 million annual
adjusted rate.  What we got was a 5.2% drop to 6.04 million
units.  It may have been this news that influenced early morning
weakness in the homebuilders even though these were existing home
sales and not new ones.  Tomorrow could be important for the
homebuilding sector as the new homes sales numbers are released.

The media was also buzzing about the strong gains in oil and gas
prices today.  Crude oil rose $1.10 to $35.68 and gas prices rose
3.45 cents to $1.0589 per gallon to hit their highest levels in
almost a year.  Driving the news was a report from the Energy
Department that unleaded gasoline inventories had dropped 1.6
million barrels last week to 203.4 million barrels, which is
below year-ago levels.  As mentioned in yesterday's wrap the high
price of oil is a major influence on multiple sectors in our
economy and the markets ability to ignore this rise has been
extraordinary.  Concerns over OPEC suggesting another production
cut at their April meeting has some analysts speculating that
we'll see drastically increased prices at the pump this summer.
The rise in oil is the major factor in the oil service sector's
three-month rally.

Hogging the spotlight again was Alan Greenspan's third appearance
this week.  This time Alan was speaking before the House Budget
Committee and shared his views on the U.S. economic outlook.
Greenspan stated that the Bush tax cuts had sparked the current
economic expansion and the Fed's accommodative stance (a.k.a. the
lowest interest rates in 40 years) had allowed the U.S. to move
from a "period of sub-par growth to one of more vigorous
expansion". He did issue strong caution on the rising deficit and
said Congress needs to address it while both congress and the
President need to curb spending.  Of course the real hot topic
today was Greenspan's comments on Social Security and his
proposals to "fix" Social Security by adjusting policy for
inflation and longer life expectancies.  More importantly for us
short-term were his comments that, "The most recent indicators
suggest that the economy is off to a strong start in 2004 and
prospects for sustaining the expansion in the period ahead are
good."

A few market pundits went on to speculate that Greenspan's
comments may re-ignite the rally in tech stocks.  Currently the
U.S. economy is expected to grow by 4.6% through 2004, well above
the 3.1% seen in 2003.  Many believe that tech stocks have
already priced in this rate of growth.  However, if the market
interprets Greenspan's comments today to mean that the economy
can grow even faster then there may be more room for stocks to
run again.

Given the rebound today I believe tomorrow should be bullish
assuming there aren't any huge negative surprises in the handful
of economic reports.  Before the opening bell we'll get the
weekly initial jobless claims, the durable goods orders for
January.  After the open we'll see the Help-wanted index and the
new home sales figures.  Plus, the markets will get to hear from
Ben Bernanke, one of the Federal Reserve governors, as he speaks
in Washington tomorrow.

Traders can also keep an eye on retail stocks.  Announcing before
the opening bell is American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS), The Limited
(LTD) and Liz Claiborne (LIZ).  Announcing later on Thursday will
be Kohl's (KSS) and the Gap (GPS).


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

International Game Technology - IGT - close: 37.21 change: +0.13

WHAT TO WATCH: Just as we suspected, IGT found support just above
its 50-dma today, rebounding from its $36.75 intraday low.  This
looks like a good entry for a rebound play, targeting a run back
to $38.50 resistance ahead of a breakout to new highs.  Use a
tight stop just under the 50-dma.

Chart=


---

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 25.25 change: +0.50

WHAT TO WATCH: We're a bit early here, but JNPR is setting up for
a solid long entry as it nears dual support at the 50-dma and the
post-gap high near $24.  Target entries on a rebound from that
support level and then look for a near-term rise to $28 followed
by potential for a continued rally back up to test the $30
resistance level.  A more conservative approach would be to wait
for a breakout over the top of the month-long bull flag at $26.75
before playing.

Chart=


---

LifePoint Hospitals, Inc. - LPNT - close: 33.59 change: +0.61

WHAT TO WATCH: After topping out near the $37 level a month ago,
shares of LPNT have been drifting lower in what looks like a bear
flag continuation pattern.  Bouncing off the 50-dma the past few
sessions, the stock looks ready to begin its rebound.  Entries
near current levels look attractive ahead of a rally back to test
resistance in the $37-38 area.  Use a tight stop just under last
Friday's $32.25 low.

Chart=


---

Federated Department Stores - FD - close: 52.54 change: +1.59

WHAT TO WATCH: Repeatedly banging its head on $50 resistance over
the past couple weeks, FD finally crept through that barrier and
then exploded upwards today, solidifying the breakout.  With the
Retail index (RLX.X) finding support above $390, FD looks like it
has room to run.  Optimum entries would come on a pullback to
test new support in the $50-51 area ahead of a rally up towards
the stock's all-time highs in the $55-56 area.

Chart=


---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

AMTD $15.72 - It looks like the profit taking that followed
AMTD's rejection at the $17.50 resistance level last week has run
its course and the stock staged a nice bounce off of 50-dma
support on Wednesday.  Current levels look good for aggressive
entries, targeting a rally back to the recent highs.  Use a tight
stop just under yesterday's low.

RI $31.51 - Investor's cheered RI's raised earnings estimates
today and the stock broke out above strong resistance at $30 on
huge volume.  The stock seems a bit extended after today's 7.5%
surge, but a pullback near the $30 level should provide a very
nice entry before the rally resumes.

BG $37.85 - There's no question BG looks extended here, but
today's rebound above near-term support suggests that another
breakout move is on tap.  Use a trigger over $38.25 and a tight
stop at $36.50, just under the early February lows, as well as
the 20-dma.


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

WFC     Wells Fargo & Co New       57.23    +0.51
MER     Merrill Lynch & Co         61.42    +0.67
MWD     Morgan Stanley             60.43    +0.83
GS      Goldman Sachs Group Inc   105.82    +1.50
FRE     Freddie Mac                62.69    +0.57


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

AUO     AU Optronics Corp          16.70    +1.25
IM      Ingram Inc                 19.55    +3.49

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

KMB     Kimberely Clark Corp       64.59    +1.07
GDT     Guidant Corp               69.79    +1.84
PCZ     Petro-Canada               44.35    +1.09
FD      Federated Dept Stores      52.54    +1.59
BSC     Bear Stearns Companies     87.18    +1.98


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

HRB     H&R Block Inc              54.41    -4.09
CECO    Career Education Corp      48.80    -2.66
FMS     Fresenius Med Care Ag      22.70    -1.06
DLTR    Dollar Tree Stores Inc     30.95    -1.29
STZ     Constellation Brands Inc   30.72    -3.04


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

PGR     Progressive Corp           83.24    -1.09
SSP      E.W. Scripps Company      97.99    -0.98


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net.

*****************************************************************


Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 02-25-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  TSS, ANN, LIN, ARA

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  New Bullish plays:    XMSR

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish plays:    MXO

Stock Splits
  Announcements:        BFCF


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

TSS, short
 lower stop from 22.50 to 22.00

---

ANN, long
 raise stop from 42.25 to 42.50

---

LIN, long
 raise stop from 31.00 to 31.50

---

ARA, long
 raise stop from 32.00 to 32.50


==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

XM Satellite Radio. - XMSR - cls: 23.95 chng: +1.35 stop: 21.25

Company Description:
XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. is a nationwide provider of
audio entertainment and information programming for reception by
vehicle, home and portable radios.  The company's digital audio
XM Radio service offers 100 channels of music, news, talk, sports
and children's programming for a monthly subscription price of
$9.99.  XMSR also offers one premium channel.  The company has
original music and talk channels created by its in-house
programming unit, as well as channels created by well-known
providers of brand-name programming, including MTV, VH1, ESPN
Radio, Radio Disney, CNN, CNBC, Discovery, Fox News, E!, NASCAR,
Radio One, Clear Channel, The Weather Channel and Hispanic
Broadcasting Corporation.

Why we like it:
After a stellar 2003, it was only natural to expect a significant
round of profit taking in the Satellite Radio stocks.  Sure
enough that's precisely what happened, and XMSR has spent the
past several weeks pulling back from it's January peak just under
$30.  Over the past 3 weeks, the stock has been building a
healthy base near $22, with the stock putting in a series of
higher lows as the 100-dma ($22.62) appears to be offering loose
support.  In fact, the basing action of the past few weeks has
the look of an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with the head
at $20.50 and the neckline at $24.  A breakout over the neckline
gives a vertical measuring objective of $27.50, which lines up
nicely with solid resistance.  There may be some resistance to
deal with near the 50-dma ($24.44) and then again at $26, but
we're expecting those to be areas of potential consolidation, not
rejection.

While we're going to use an official trigger at $24, more
conservative traders may want to wait for a break above $24.50
before playing, as that would have the stock already breaking
over the 50-dma.  The best entry into the play will come on the
initial breakout over our trigger, while more conservative
players may find that a subsequent pullback to test the $24 level
as new-found support suits their risk profile better.  Initial
stops will be placed at $21.25, just under the site of the
shoulders of the H&S pattern.  That's a wider stop than we
normally like to use and we'd recommend tightening that stop to
$22 (just under yesterday's low) once the stock is able to push
through the 50-dma.

Annotated Chart of XMSR:



Picked on February 25th at  $23.95
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              2/12/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    6.68 mln


==================================================================
High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Maxtor Corp. - MXO - cls: 9.98 chng: +0.65 stop: 9.00

Company Description:
Maxtor Corporation is a provider of hard disk drives for a
variety of applications, including desktop computers, Intel-based
servers, near-line storage systems and consumer electronics.  The
company's desktop products are marketed under the Fireball,
DiamondMax and MaXLine brand names, and consist of 3.5-inch hard
disk drives with storage capacities ranging from 20 to 300
gigabytes per platter and speeds of 5,400 RPM (revolutions per
minute) and 7,200 RPM.  MXO also provides a line of high-end 3.5-
inch hard disk drives for use in high-performance, storage-
intensive applications such as workstations, enterprise servers
and storage subsystems.  These Intel-based server products are
marketed under the Atlas brand name and provide storage
capacities of 18.4 to 146.9 gigabytes at speeds of 10,000 RPM and
15,000 RPM.

Why we like it:
After topping out near $15 in mid-October, MXO has been under
consistent selling pressure, posting one lower high after
another.  That weakness persisted through the end of January,
with the stock breaking below the 200-dma and briefly dropping
under strong support at $9.00.  But over the past few weeks, the
price action has started to look more constructive.  The stock
has continued to find support just above that $9 level, while
bumping into resistance near $10, and this consolidation pattern
looks like the prelude to a bullish breakout.  Yesterday's dip
was met by solid buying interest, which continued today,
propelling the stock higher to close just under that $10
resistance level on expanding volume.  Buying a breakout over $10
seems a bit too aggressive due to a bit more resistance at $10.25
and the 50-dma ($10.38) and 200-dma ($10.33) clustered just above
there.  But if the stock is able to break over those averages, it
has a better than even chance of rallying up towards its January
high near $12.50.

Because of that near resistance, we're going to use an entry
trigger at $10.40.  The best entries will come on the initial
breakout, especially if it is accompanied by continued strong
volume.  Traders that would prefer a more cautious approach will
want to enter on a subsequent pullback to confirm new support
near $10 after that initial breakout.  We'll target a rally back
to the $12.50 level, but will need to keep an eye on potential
resistance first at $11.00 and then again at the 100-dma
($11.43).  Note that the Disk Drive index (DDX.X) rebounded today
right from the site of its 200-dma and that has bullish
implications as well.  Look for a continued rebound in the DDX to
confirm bullish entries in MXO.  We're initially setting a fairly
wide stop at $9.00, just under yesterday's high.  Once the play
is triggered though, we're recommending a tighter stop at $9.40,
just below both the 20-dma ($9.45) and today's intraday low at
$9.48.

Annotated Chart of MXO:



Picked on February 25th at   $9.98
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              1/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    4.10 mln



==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

BFCF declares 5-for-4 split.


Just after today's closing bell BFC Financial Corp (NASDAQ:BFCF)
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 5-for-4 stock
split in the form of a 25% stock dividend.

The dividend is payable to both Class A and Class B common
shareholders on March 1st, 2004.  The record date is February
20th.


About the company:
BFC Financial Corporation is a holding company as a consequence of
its ownership of 13 million shares of the common stock of
BankAtlantic Bancorp (NYSE:BBX) and a controlling interest in the
shares of Levitt Corporation (NYSE:LEV)
BankAtlantic Bancorp (NYSE:BBX) is a diversified financial
services holding company and the parent company of BankAtlantic
and Ryan Beck & Co. Through these subsidiaries, BankAtlantic
Bancorp provides a full line of products and services encompassing
consumer and commercial banking and brokerage and investment
banking. Levitt Corporation (NYSE:LEV), the parent company of
Levitt and Sons(TM) and Core Communities, develops single-family
homes and master-planned communities in Florida.
 (Source: Company Press Release)


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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