PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 02-29-2004 section 1 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Battle Lines Drawn Market Sentiment: Is it over yet? Watch List: DST, HOT, UPL, IFLO ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= WE 02-27 WE 02-20 WE 02-13 WE 02-06 DOW 10583.92 - 35.11 10619.0 - 8.82 10627.8 + 34.82 +104.96 Nasdaq 2029.82 - 8.11 2037.93 - 15.63 2053.56 - 10.45 - 2.14 S&P-100 564.54 - 0.33 564.87 - 1.05 565.92 - 0.14 + 5.75 S&P-500 1144.95 + 0.84 1144.11 - 1.70 1145.81 + 3.05 + 11.63 W5000 11172.92 + 29.34 11143.6 - 30.42 11174.0 + 44.60 +100.20 RUT 585.56 + 5.67 579.89 - 5.25 585.14 + 1.07 + 3.31 SOX 502.26 - 7.99 510.25 - 0.80 511.05 - 8.30 + 5.43 TRAN 2902.19 + 10.01 2892.18 - 24.38 2916.56 + 22.20 + 8.40 VIX 14.57 - 1.47 16.04 + 0.46 15.58 - 0.41 - 0.64 VXO 14.76 - 1.49 16.25 + 0.62 15.63 - 0.35 - 1.07 VXN 22.87 - 1.25 24.12 - 0.02 24.14 - 0.49 - 0.43 TRIN 1.26 1.29 1.19 0.62 Put/Call 0.73 0.86 0.76 0.62 WE = week ending ================================================================= =========================== Market Wrap =========================== Battle Lines Drawn by Jim Brown The Dow changed sides from offense to defense several times on Friday with several strong moves in each direction but the end result was a +3 point gain and a close at almost exactly the same level that it started the week. The battle line continues to be 10600 and the Dow crossed that line six times on Friday. The Nasdaq rallied to 2045 before failing just below the 50ma resistance at 2050 and closed near the top of the weekly range. These indexes are fighting a perfect consolidation battle and the battle lines did not change all week. Dow Charts - Daily Wilshire-5000 Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Converging Support/Resistance Friday was a busy day for economic reports and it was a grand slam for the bulls. The GDP revision led the day off with a upward revision instead of a reduction in the Q4 estimates. The Q4 GDP estimate rose to +4.1% and well over the +3.6% estimates. This was a very positive revision with exports up +21% and business investment up +9.6%. Inventories rose for the first time in three quarters with a $14.9B gain. The inflation pressures appeared to have eased with the PCE Price Index up only +0.7% while the purchase price index rose at a +1.1% rate. This was a strong revision for the GDP and it caught everyone by surprise. Also beating consensus estimates was the Chicago PMI at 63.6. This was down slightly from January's 65.9 which was a nine year high. An easing of the index had been expected from that high. The component with the biggest surprise was the jobs numbers with employment rising to 54.8 and the highest level in five years. This was also the first time over 50 since August 2003. Inventories rose to 46.5 from 37.4. All the other components eased only slightly off the January highs. Again, this was also a very strong report and a confirmation of the recovery in progress. The NY-NAPM broke out to a new high at 267.2. This is the highest level since Sept-2001 and has now posted gains for six consecutive months. The business conditions index has jumped +17.6% since November and suggests business is booming in the New York area. The financial services sector in NY reported bonuses were +20% higher than the prior year and the state comptroller said they were going to receive an extra $57 million in taxes from these bonuses that they had not expected. A little bull market never hurt anybody. Rounding out the economic menu for Friday was the revised Consumer Sentiment, which rose slightly from the advance level. The sentiment rose to 94.4 and over consensus estimates of 94.0 but this was down significantly from the January number at 103.8. Traders were relieved it was revised up instead of down given the fall in the various other sentiment/confidence indicators over the last two weeks. The preliminary February reading was only 93.1 so the gain was appreciated. The Dow displayed multiple personalities on Friday with a sprint out of the gate to 10650 and a +60 point gain. This lasted about 90 minutes before a serious sell program sent the index to the lows of the day at 10563. This nearly -90 point drop from the highs took less than 30 min and left everyone in a state of uneasiness. After about an hour at the lows the bargain hunters bought the dip and took us back to 10633 for a +70 point rebound. Unfortunately the gains did not hold and an end of day bout of profit taking knocked it back under 10600 to end the day with only a +3 point gain. Four major moves and a 90 point range and we ended with only a +3 point gain. This is typical consolidation type activity and it is more prevalent toward the end of the consolidation period. This shows the sellers are still lurking overhead but the buyers are becoming stronger to be able to test the upper boundary of the range. The 50ma moved up to 10513 and remains the first level of real support. Initial horizontal support is currently 10575 and 10550. These are very narrow ranges and they are rising slowly. Nothing here rules out another retest of the lower support but despite the flat close the overall bullishness is increasing. If you look at the difference in the Wilshire chart and the Dow chart at the top of this article you will see a definite uptick in the Wilshire that is not seen in the Dow. This is purely the impact of UTX, BA, MMM and GE for the week that gave the impression of more market weakness than really existed. Compare the charts, you will be surprised. The Nasdaq rallied back to the highs of the week at 2045 on the opening bounce and fought valiantly to hold its gains. Unfortunately the morning sell program was tech weighted and the damage was severe. The Nasdaq was knocked for a -25 point intraday loss and back to 2018 before the recovery began. The Nasdaq struggled back to close -3 for the day but remained at the high end of the weekly range. This was the sixth week of losses for the Nasdaq but I am betting the string ends here. We have seen four straight days of uptrend on this index and we are starting to see articles on positive April earnings expectations. Nasdaq 2000 remains strong support and the 100ma has risen to 1991. This makes the 1990-2000 level even more formidable as support. The Nasdaq chart today was very exciting to annotate. (You can tell I have no life) The converging support and resistance lines are predicting an explosive move very soon. The strongest index for the day actually started off as the weaker index. The Russell lagged the big cap indexes until after the morning sell off then led the charge back from the depths. The Russell closed up +1.70 at 585 and at the high for the week. This is a very strong showing especially when the SOX lost -7.58 (-1.48%). This is major divergence and the Russell close at 585 is only a little more than -10 points from the February highs. The Russell is well over its 50ma and now over the 10ma which had been near term resistance. Were it not for the SOX I would advocate buying the Russell at the open on Monday. Russell-2000 Chart - Daily The SOX was the weakest index on Friday and contrary to the other indexes it closed near its lows. This is very disconcerting to me and I could not really find any specific reason. Considering the SOX was up nearly +5% from its Monday's lows it could have been simply profit taking. Next Thursday Intel will provide its mid quarter update and expectations are for some improved guidance based on comments from Intel execs over the last couple weeks. This makes it even more puzzling why the chip stocks should sell off on Friday. Intel is expected to affirm its higher capex spending and that should help the chip equipment makers. Also, considering Monday and Tuesday are normally bullish from month end cash inflows there could be even more reason to buy Friday's dip. I am still unconvinced and will want to see upward motion before taking the positions. SOX Index Chart - Daily Helping techs on Friday was news from IDC that SUNW was seeing gains in its sector and had seen +21% server growth from the previous year. According to IDC SUNW gained +15.5% in units and +3.1% in market share. Marvel announced a profit in the 4Q compared to a prior loss and announced a 2:1 split. The stock gained +7% for the day. Oracle continued to fall as comments about suing the Justice Dept on the PSFT acquisition continued to surface. They also extended the tender offer period in light of the Justice delay. Come on Larry, rein in that ego and go sailing or something. The lawyers don't need your money. Rounding out the stock news Autodesk jumped +11% on much stronger than expected earnings and raised guidance. ADSK jumped nearly +3 to $29. UTX finally posted a winning day with a +2.23 gain after a week of heavy losses. UTX used the 100ma at 89.25 as a springboard to launch the rebound. Bargain hunters were waiting with money in hand for that level to be hit. Dow component CAT offset the gains in UTX with a -2.20 drop (-16 Dow points) after announcing an acquisition. Mutual funds are continuing to see massive inflows of cash according to ICI. In January stock funds had $43.7B in cash inflows despite the continuing fund scandals. This was the third highest monthly inflow since records have been kept. The highest was $55B in Feb-2000 and right at the top in the market. In the last week alone nearly $3B flowed into stock funds. There is currently over $4 trillion invested in stock funds. The calendar next week starts out with a killer on Monday morning. The ISM for February is expected to drop slightly to 62.0 from the 63.6 two year high in January. This is the key report for the beginning of the week and is the key indicator of the current economy. This will help confirm the recovery is still on track and help quiet some of the concerns from several weak reports recently. The middle of the week has several reports that will be watched but are not really critical including the ISM Services, Beige Book, Productivity and Factory Orders. The Beige Book would be my pick for the most critical of that bunch and it comes out on Wednesday. The next biggest report for the week is the Employment Report for February that comes out on Friday. Currently the estimates are for a gain of +128,000 jobs but nobody knows where those jobs are coming from. The Employment report is done by survey in the week which contains the 12th of the month. (Wonder who figured that out?) The Jobless Claims for that week in February were -344K and the prior week was -368K. This suggests we were not seeing a booming job market when the survey was taken. We will get a lot more in the way of analysis as the report draws near but I would suspect we could see some caution in the market as the week winds down. I am still in buy the dip mode and when the markets exploded out of the gate on Friday I thought maybe I had been too patient trying to wait for some stocks to come to me. This is where I have really mixed emotions. I want to see the market ease back to its highs but I would really like to see the Dow hit the 50ma first. The longer we go without a cursory touch the more likely the gains will be muted. We are still in a consolidation mode but the increased volatility suggests we could see another breakout attempt soon. That attempt could still be in either direction. For Monday I expect the ISM to be positive. From the lack of a material rally into the month end I may be the only one on the planet that feels that way. This is good in a way as it means the expectations are not already baked into the cake. A good ISM on Monday along with some decent month end cash flows into funds could help provide a boost to the first three days of the week. The Intel update on Thursday should provide a little advance worry and weakness but a positive update Thursday night and a neutral to positive Jobs report on Friday could produce a relief rally to close the week. Obviously, there is a lot of speculation in this paragraph but that is the way I see it today. Check back with me on Tuesday night and see if the picture changed. Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively! Jim Brown ================================================ Market Sentiment ================================================ Is it over yet? - J. Brown The month of February finally comes to a close as the broader indices struggle with another week of consolidation above support. That's a good thing right? Well we hope so. The fact that the DJIA and the S&P 500 have been consolidating gains in a sideways manner might be interpreted as a lack of sellers. No one wants to sell because they believe stocks will go up again and the consolidation this month has really been caused by buyers taking a breather. Sounds reasonable, right? The NASDAQ has had a tougher time with its own consolidation but then it out performed both the DJIA and the SPX so there is a lot more profit taking to occur. In reality the NASDAQ is holding up pretty well. We still haven't seen a 10% pull back from its highs and given the bounce from its low under 2000 this past week it may be a while yet before we do see such a correction. Fundamentally this was a pretty bullish week for stocks. Greenspan offered some very positive comments about the economy and Q4 GDP estimates came in at +4.1% on Friday, above estimates. The Gartner group raised their sales estimates for semiconductors to +23% this year and investors are probably starting to look towards April earnings even though the Q4 earnings season just ended. Market internals were also bullish on Friday with advancing stocks outpacing decliners 18 to 9 on the NYSE and almost 17 to 14 on the NASDAQ. Volume numbers were mixed with up volume doing better than down on the NYSE and vice versa on the NASDAQ. Looking across the various sector-specific indices we witnessed a number of them putting in short-term bottoms this past week. More encouraging were the number of new highs. Oil stocks, oil services, utilities, homebuilders and healthcare all saw their indices hit new highs. Also strong were banks, biotech and retail stocks. Now that February is over investors will be looking at March's historical trends. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac March appears to be somewhat volatile with the first half of the month more bullish than the second half. However, the Dow has managed to close higher in March five out of the last six years. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 7416 Current : 10583 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10624 50-dma: 10513 200-dma: 9659 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1158 52-week Low : 788 Current : 1144 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1145 50-dma: 1128 200-dma: 1040 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 946 Current : 1470 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1480 50-dma: 1489 200-dma: 1357 ----------------------------------------------------------------- The VXO and VIX managed an intraday reversal both all three are still pointing lower. These low readings suggest very little fear in the markets or in other words investors are very bullish. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.55 -0.25 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 14.76 +0.11 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 22.84 -0.26 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.72 624,138 448,697 Equity Only 0.59 528,027 313,869 OEX 1.38 19,559 26,998 QQQ 3.74 6,810 25,436 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 76.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 61.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 86.7 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 85.6 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 87.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.12 10-dma: 1.12 21-dma: 1.03 55-dma: 1.00 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1849 1677 Decliners 969 1391 New Highs 206 116 New Lows 5 4 Up Volume 1052M 846M Down Vol. 728M 969M Total Vol. 1807M 1840M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/24/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 No change for commercial traders. They remain hedged either direction. Small traders haven't made many changes either and remain bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/03/04 411,920 414,596 (2,676) (0.3%) 02/10/04 412,217 414,044 (1,827) (0.2%) 02/17/04 416,148 415,278 870 0.0% 02/24/04 417,490 416,502 988 0.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 141,465 81,926 59,539 26.7% 02/10/04 143,496 80,362 63,134 28.2% 02/17/04 141,533 84,227 57,306 25.3% 02/24/04 141,559 85,171 56,388 24.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 We're seeing a lot more action in the e-minis than the large contracts above. Commercial traders are bearish but have become slightly less so over the last week. As is typical the small traders moved the opposite direction and while bullish became less so. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/03/04 280,519 346,042 (65,523) (10.5%) 02/10/04 297,601 356,630 (59,029) ( 9.0%) 02/17/04 296,313 371,703 (75,390) (11.3%) 02/24/04 320,425 387,255 (66,830) ( 9.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 133,293 55,476 77,817 41.2% 02/10/04 110,480 58,428 52,052 30.8% 02/17/04 144,014 64,391 79,623 38.2% 02/24/04 129,894 63,524 66,370 34.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Not much change for the commercial traders in the NDX futures this week but we are seeing a change in the small traders' positions. There appears to be a bullish reversal with a large shift from shorts to longs. Of course a contrarian will note that the small trader is normally wrong so this could be a bearish development for the markets. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 43,600 41,441 2,159 2.5% 02/10/04 44,406 40,439 3,967 4.7% 02/17/04 46,104 40,385 5,719 6.6% 02/24/04 47,266 40,452 6,814 7.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 8,907 13,729 (4,822) (21.3%) 02/10/04 9,906 13,018 (3,112) (13.6%) 02/17/04 9,630 12,338 (2,708) (12.3%) 02/24/04 12,388 7,310 5,078 25.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Hmm... commercial traders have become more bullish on the Dow in the last week. Not much change from the little guys. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 17,765 9,619 8,146 29.7% 02/10/04 21,764 11,974 9,790 29.0% 02/17/04 24,451 12,907 11,544 30.9% 02/24/04 27,176 13,918 13,258 32.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 6,352 13,113 (6,761) (34.7%) 02/10/04 6,267 14,220 (7,953) (38.8%) 02/17/04 6,768 15,623 (8,855) (39.5%) 02/24/04 6,509 14,919 (8,410) (39.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- DST Systems - DST - close: 44.76 change: +0.98 WHAT TO WATCH: We are very bullish on DST. The stock's breakout over resistance at $44.00 is a new year and a half high. There is virtually no resistance between here and the $50 mark and all of its technicals are bullish. After the closing bell on Friday DST announced a 6 million share buyback program to replace its old one expiring February 29th, 2004. DST's P&F chart is also bullish and points to a $71 price target. --- Starwood Hotels - HOT - close: 39.01 change: +0.35 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of HOT have been consolidating sideways in a tight range between $38-39 for two weeks. HOT surged higher on Friday and broke out through the top of this range on decent volume. However, while the Friday rally looks tempting HOT has longer-term resistance at the $40.00 level. Look for a breakout there. --- Ultra Petroleum Corp - UPL - close: 29.16 change: +1.13 WHAT TO WATCH: Oil and oil services stocks have been real leaders in the markets recently and UPL just took off three days ago with a strong bounce from its 50-dma and support at the $25.00 level. We would watch for a potential pull back into the 27.00-27.50 range as an entry point. --- I-Flow Corp - IFLO - close: 17.67 change: +1.42 WHAT TO WATCH: IFLO's 8.7% gain on Friday was fueled by stronger than average volume. While we'd be tempted to chase the breakout traders may do better to look for a dip to the $17.00 level. Currently its P&F chart is sporting a spread triple-top buy signal and suggests a long-term $27 price target. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- SANM $12.69 +0.06 - SANM is trying to find a bottom at support of $12.00 but is struggling with the rebound. The stock has overhead resistance at its 50-dma and the $14.00 level. FCX $42.65 +1.01 - We like the bounce from $40.00 and its 50-dma on Friday. FCX appears to be building a bull flag consolidation pattern and a move over $43.00 may be an entry point. GTW $5.43 +0.22 - GTW has broken out over $5.00, pulled back to test support again at $5.00 and bounced again. There is resistance at $5.50 but a breakout should lead a rally to $6.00. Patient traders can look for another test of the 10-dma to buy the dip. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 02-29-2004 section 2 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Tech Stocks New Bearish Plays: VRTS Bearish Play Updates: CSCO, TSS, UTEK Active Trader (Non-tech) New Bullish Plays: TYC, SPF Bullish Play Updates: ANN, ARA, LIN, XMSR High Risk/Reward Bullish Play Updates: MXO Bearish Play Updates: NETE Stock Splits Announcements: GBTS, PHX ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== ========= NEW PLAYS ========= ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Veritas Software -VRTS - close: 30.55 change: -0.89 stop: 32.50 Company Description: As an independent supplier of storage management software, VRTS develops and sells products that protect against data loss and file corruption, allowing rapid recovery after disk or computer system failure. The company's products provide continuous data availability in clustered computer systems with shared resources. This enables IT managers to work efficiently with large file systems, making it possible to manage data distributed on large computer network systems without harming productivity or interrupting users. VRTS provides products for most popular operating systems, including UNIX and Windows NT, as well as a full range of services to assist its customers in planning and implementing their storage management solutions. Why we like it: After persistently drilling its way higher throughout most of 2003, VRTS topped out in the middle of January and following its disappointing earnings forecast for Q1, the stock plunged sharply. Slicing through both the 100-dma and the 200-dma on a large gap-down move, the stock finally found buying support near $30.50. That was enough to push price back above the 200-dma (currently $33.10), and the stock crawled along that average until February 19th, when the sellers returned. VRTS rolled over just below its sharply declining 20-dma ($32.57) and fell back to test that $30.50 support level. A much weaker bounce ensued, rolling over just under the 10-dma $31.87) this time and Friday's price action has the stock resting right back on that $30.50 support. It seems clear that a breakdown is imminent and when it occurs, jumping into momentum shorts appears to have good odds of success. The PnF chart is downright ugly at this point, with the Sell signal created in late January producing a bearish price target of $21. Of course, there's going to be bumps along the way and the $30 level looks like a big one, as it has been solid support for a month and looking at the PnF chart, we can see why. the bullish support line is right there at $30. Printing $30 will also generate a follow-on Sell signal, so setting our entry trigger at $30 is an obvious choice. Momentum traders will want to enter on the initial break below that level, while more cautious traders can look for a subsequent failed rebound below the 10-dma to provide entry. The $32 level should be strong resistance, with the 20-dma ($32.57) coming down to reinforce it. We'll initially target a drop to support near $27 and then look for follow through down to the $24-25 area. Should VRTS fail to break down, we'll have confirmation that the downtrend is over with a move through our $32.50 stop, which should be above the 20-dma by Monday. Annotated Chart of VRTS: Picked on February 29th at $30.55 Change since picked +0.00 Earnings Date 1/28/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 5.79 mln ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 23.16 change: -0.19 stop: 24.50 Our bearish play on CSCO got off to a good start last week, with price sliding down near the $22 level before any sort of bounce began. To be fair, the bounce was a little stronger than we wanted to see, but price action adhered to its recent pattern of rolling over near the 10-dma (now $23.57) and the stock rolled over on Thursday just below $24 resistance (former support). With the 10-dma now crossing down through the 100-dma ($23.59) and the 20-dma ($24.19) in hot pursuit, that resistance in the $23.50-24.00 area appears to be getting stronger. Of course, it doesn't hurt that the NASDAQ has been unable to sustain any kind of a rebound over the past week, and Friday's rejection from below the 50-dma has bearish implications for CSCO. Rollovers near resistance still look like the better entry point, rather than a breakdown entry under $22, especially with our target at the 200-dma now rising to $21.02. Maintain stops at $24.50. Picked on February 22nd at $23.19 Change since picked -0.03 Earnings Date 5/11/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 53.1 mln --- Total System Services - TSS - cls: 21.23 chg: -0.06 stop: 22.00 We almost achieved our first target of $20.00 with Thursday's intraday low at $20.26 but the ensuing rebound was very discouraging. The reason for the drop and the sudden reversal is a mystery but TSS did announce a cash dividend of 2 cents per share on Thursday. The dividend is payable on April 1st, 2004. The rebound in the NASDAQ has made progress in these tech shorts tough to come by and traders should be careful in initiating new positions. We're feeling very cautious especially considering the bullish reversal "hammer" candlestick pattern on TSS' weekly chart. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stops to breakeven. Annotated Chart: Picked on February 20 at $21.75 Gain since picked: - 0.52 Earnings Date 01/13/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 323 thousand --- Ultratech - UTEK - close: 24.81 change: -0.36 stop: 26.01*new* The consolidation in shares of UTEK has begun to narrow but the stock remains under resistance at its 200-dma. We're starting to have mixed feelings here since the breakdown under the 200-dma and more specifically under the $25 level really hasn't seen much follow through. UTEK's MACD indicator is suggesting a bullish turnaround may be in its short-term future. We're going to leave the play open but we're also going to reduce our risk by lowering the stop to $26.01. New entry points are probably best considered under $24.00. Our first target remains $22.00. Annotated Chart: Picked on February 22 at $25.09 Gain since picked: - 0.28 Earnings Date 02/04/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 416 thousand ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ========= NEW PLAYS ========= ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Tyco International - TYC - close: 28.57 change: +0.17 stop: 26.00 Company Description: Tyco International Ltd. is a diversified manufacturing and service company that organizes its businesses into five segments. The Fire and Security segment designs, manufactures, installs, monitors and services electronic security and fire protection systems. The Electronics segment designs, manufactures and distributes electrical and electronic components, and designs, manufactures, installs, operates and maintains undersea fiber- optic cable communications systems. The Healthcare segment designs, manufactures and distributes medical devices and supplies, imaging agents, pharmaceuticals and adult incontinence and infant care products. The Engineered Products and Services segment designs, manufactures, distributes and services engineered products and provides environmental and other industrial consulting services. The Plastics and Adhesives segment designs, manufactures and distributes plastic products, adhesives and films. Why we like it: Long gone are the days where TYC plunged like a lead balloon every time the news featured another sordid detail about its then-CEO or other business practices. The stock spent its time in the penalty box, building a fresh base down in the $10-12 area and was poised for recovery when the rest of the market took off last March. Since then, TYC has been trading higher in a steadily rising channel, more than doubling in the past year. The stock doesn't move quickly, but the price trend is certainly deliberate, making it a perfect candidate for a longer-term play. Over the past month, the stock has been trading in the upper half of its channel (a bullish indication) while the 50-dma ($27.44) has been rising to reinforce support at the channel midline. Note that Friday's large-range bar on the chart below is in error due to a bad tick. Looking at the PnF chart shows the stock on a very strong Buy signal, with the most recent Sell signal (last August) being a bear trap. TYC began its most recent rebound from support on Tuesday, just kissing the channel mid-line and bouncing just above the 50-dma. If the trading pattern of the past few months repeats, we can look for the stock to make a run at the top of its channel, which is currently at $30 and rising about $0.50 per week. A brief pullback to confirm support in the $27.50-28.00 area would provide a slightly better entry point, but entries near current levels look viable as well. We'll place our stop initially at $26, which is just under the low from late January/early February. We expect TYC to be a slow moving stock - it has been for the past year - so we're going to look forward in time and anticipate a continued rally to the $31-32 area over the next few weeks. Note that there is some historical resistance near $30, so more conservative traders may want to consider harvesting some gains near that level and then look for re-entry on another pullback near the middle of the channel. Annotated Chart of TYC: Picked on February 29th at $28.57 Change since picked +0.00 Earnings Date 2/03/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 9.61 mln --- Standard Pacific - SPF - cls: 52.31 chg: +1.28 stop: 47.50 Company Description: Standard Pacific, one of the nation's largest homebuilders, has built homes for more than 61,000 families during its 38-year history. The Company constructs homes within a wide range of price and size targeting a broad range of homebuyers. Standard Pacific operates in some of the strongest housing markets in the country with operations in major metropolitan areas in California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida and the Carolinas. The Company provides mortgage financing and title services to its homebuyers through its subsidiaries and joint ventures, Family Lending Services, SPH Mortgage, WRT Financial, Westfield Home Mortgage, Universal Land Title of South Florida and SPH Title. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Homebuilders are on the run again! Last year the home construction sector was one of the market's best performers. Historically low interest rates naturally produced some of the best mortgages rates in decades. Consumers have been taking advantage of the low rates and buying homes at a record pace. Many of the larger builders have reported record-breaking backlogs over the next two years. Given the recent trend in mortgage rates (they're slipping again) and the Fed's promise to be "patient" before raising interest rates the coming spring- summer home buying season is poised to be a blockbuster. We like SPF because while other big name builders like RYL, HOV, CTX and others are still recovering from heavy profit taking in early January shares of SPF have already recovered and are trading at new all-time highs. The recent breakout over resistance at $51.00-51.50 was powered by very strong volume for SPF. It also produced a new triple-top buy signal on its P&F chart. We're going to target a move to $60.00 and initiate the play with a stop loss at $47.50. The stop may seem a little wide but we expect SPF to pull back a bit and offer traders another entry point between $50-51.25. However, the stock looks bullish enough we're not afraid to go long here. Keep your ears open for any news from SPF on Monday as they present at the Raymond James institutional investors conference. Annotated Chart: Picked on February 29 at $52.31 Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 02/04/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 468 thousand ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- AnnTaylor Stores - ANN - cls: 45.80 chg: +0.10 stop: 42.99*new* Retails stocks have continued to out perform the markets this past week and ANN certainly didn't let us down. The recent consolidation above the $44 level appears to be ending with another new high above $46 on Friday and a strong bounce from the $45 level. We don't have a lot of new headlines to report but ANN did confirm its earnings date as March 9th. That gives the stock another week to produce any sort of earnings run. We're going to raise our stop loss to $42.99. More conservative traders might be able to get away with a stop under $44.00. Annotated chart: Picked on February 08 at $42.68 Gain since picked: + 3.12 Earnings Date 03/09/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 790 thousand --- Aracruz Celulose Sa - ARA - close: 36.15 chg: +1.05 stop: 33.50*new* Right on target! Shares of ARA continue to march higher with Friday's session turning out a strong 3% gain and a new relative high. We're quickly approaching our target of $38.00. However, there may still be opportunities to buy a dip to $35.00 should one present itself. We're going to raise our stop loss to $33.50. Annotated Chart: Picked on February 15 at $34.11 Gain since picked: + 2.04 Earnings Date 01/13/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 323 thousand --- Linen N Things - LIN - close: 33.90 chg: +0.00 stop: 32.00*new* LIN was another decent performer in the retail sector with a big bounce from its Tuesday low of $32.28. The stock is once again challenging its one-year highs with stronger than average volume on the recent rally. Traders looking for new entries can wait for a dip toward the $33.00 level. We're going to try and reduce our exposure by raising the stop to $32.00. Annotated chart: Picked on February 08 at $31.64 Gain since picked: + 2.26 Earnings Date 02/04/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 557 thousand --- XM Sat. Radio - XMSR - cls: 24.52 chng: -0.11 stop: 22.00*new* Without wasting any time after we initiated coverage on Wednesday, XMSR broke out over that $24 resistance level, triggering the play in the process. The stock continued its rally on Friday morning, almost reaching the $25 level before being dragged lower with the rest of the Technology sector. Despite the disappointing performance on Friday, the silver lining is that price held above the 50-dma (former resistance) at the close. With a clear breakout from the recent consolidation, we can now look for a potential pullback entry on a rebound from the $23.50-24.00 area, which should be strong support, reinforced by the rising 10-dma (now at $23.53). There's nothing wrong with breakout entries over the $25 level, but volume really needs to expand again to validate a continued breakout. Note that we've raised our stop to $22 this weekend, which is just below Tuesday's intraday low. Picked on February 25th at $23.95 Change since picked +0.57 Earnings Date 2/12/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 6.73 mln ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Maxtor Corp. - MXO - close: 10.25 change: -0.22 stop: 9.40*new* Getting off to an encouraging start, our new MXO play, surged higher on Thursday, closing above both the 50-dma ($10.38) and the 200-dma ($10.35) and closing at the high of the day on strong volume. Unfortunately, follow-through on Friday was lacking and the stock fell back under both averages, suggesting a bit more consolidation may be in order before the breakout will be sustainable. Despite the lack of follow-through heading into the weekend, the fact that price held well above the $10 level on Friday suggests that the breakout above that level was strong and we can now look for pullbacks to find strong support near that level. That means a dip near $10 can be used for new entries, now that our trigger for the play has been satisfied. More cautious traders that want to see evidence of continued strength before playing will want to enter on a renewed breakout over $10.50, preferably on a resumption of the strong volume seen on Wednesday and Thursday. Note that we've raised our stop to $9.40, as that is below both Wednesday's intraday low and the 20- dma ($9.55). Picked on February 25th at $9.98 Change since picked +0.27 Earnings Date 1/21/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 4.39 mln -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Netegrity, Inc. - NETE - cls: 9.15 chng: +0.18 stop: 9.75*new* There's certainly been no lack of back and forth action in NETE during the period of time it has been on the play list. The initial move above $10 found resistance just below our stop and the stock proceeded into a solid decline into its fresh low just above $8.25 on Monday. Bulls decided it was a dip worth buying and the stock spent the remainder of the week clawing its way back towards resistance in the $9.40-9.50 area. So far, the pattern of lower highs and lower lows is very much intact and if we can get another rollover below the 20-dma ($9.38) next week, new recent lows should be in store. That rollover near resistance looks like a good setup for new entries too. We may have erred by tightening the stop to $9.60 last week. At the time, it was above the 200-dma, but with that average still slowly rising, it is now above our stop. Trader that wish to use the 200-dma as protection for their stops should probably raise stops to $9.75 this weekend. That's what we're going to do with our official stop. Picked on February 4th at $9.16 Change since picked -0.01 Earnings Date 1/26/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 726 K ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- GBTS declares a 5% stock dividend Early afternoon on Friday Gateway Financial Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:GBTS), the holding company for Gateway Bank, announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 21-for-20 stock split. The split will take effect as a 5% stock dividend. The dividend is payable on April 8th, 2004 for shareholders on record as of March 15th. About the company: Gateway Financial Holdings, Inc. is the holding company for Gateway Bank, a full service community bank with offices in Elizabeth City, Edenton, Kitty Hawk, Plymouth and Roper, North Carolina and Chesapeake and Virginia Beach, Virginia. The Bank also provides insurance through Gateway Insurance Services, Inc. and brokerage services through Gateway Investment Services, Inc. (Source: Company Press Release) --- PHX announces a 2-for-1 split After the closing bell on Friday Panhandle Royalty Company (AMEX:PHX) announced that their shareholders had approved an increase in the number of outstanding shares from 6 million to 12 million and a 2-for-1 stock split. According to their press release the "effective" date is April 1st, 2004 and the distribution date is April 15th. About the company: Panhandle Royalty Company is a publicly held diversified mineral holding company engaged in the acquisition, ownership, management and development of its fee minerals. It actively participates in the exploration, drilling, production and acquisition of hydrocarbons on internally and externally generated prospects. Its stock is traded on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol PHX. The Company's office is located in Oklahoma City while its mineral holdings and production are situated in Oklahoma, New Mexico, Texas and 19 other states. (Source: Company Press Release) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 02-29-2004 section 3 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section three: Market Watch for Week of March 1, 2004 - Major Earnings - Stock Splits - Economic Reports Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= ========================================== Market Watch for the week of March 1st ========================================== ----------------- Earnings Calendar ----------------- Symbol Co Date Comment EPS Est ------------------------- MONDAY ------------------------------- FRO Frontline Ltd. Mon, Mar 1 -----N/A----- 1.05 HOV Hovnanian Enterprises Mon, Mar 1 After the Bell 1.74 HBC HSBC Holdings plc Mon, Mar 1 Before the Bell N/A KGC Kinross Gold Mon, Mar 1 -----N/A----- 0.03 PSO Pearson plc Mon, Mar 1 Before the Bell N/A STHLY Stet Hellas Telecomm Mon, Mar 1 -----N/A----- N/A TLD TDC A/S Mon, Mar 1 -----N/A----- N/A ------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------ ALO Alpharma Tue, Mar 2 After the Bell 0.29 BNS Bank of Nova Scotia Tue, Mar 2 Before the Bell N/A BIIB Biogen Idec Inc. Tue, Mar 2 After the Bell 0.32 BJ BJ's Wholesale Club Tue, Mar 2 Before the Bell 0.65 CVC Cablevision Sys Corp. Tue, Mar 2 Before the Bell -0.45 CRHCY CRH plc Tue, Mar 2 Before the Bell N/A FL Foot Locker, Inc. Tue, Mar 2 -----N/A----- 0.45 GMST Gemstar-TV Guide Intl Tue, Mar 2 After the Bell -0.02 HSIC Henry Schein Tue, Mar 2 Before the Bell 0.78 MVL Marvel Enterprises Tue, Mar 2 Before the Bell 0.17 PSUN Pac Sunwear CaliforniaTue, Mar 2 After the Bell 0.42 PLL Pall Corp. Tue, Mar 2 After the Bell 0.30 PETM PetsMart Tue, Mar 2 -----N/A----- 0.37 COO The Cooper Companies Tue, Mar 2 -----N/A----- 0.53 ------------------------ WEDNESDAY ----------------------------- ABV AmBev Wed, Mar 3 -----N/A----- 0.58 AZO AutoZone Inc. Wed, Mar 3 Before the Bell 1.00 BVF Biovail Corporation Wed, Mar 3 Before the Bell 0.29 CHS Chico's FAS Wed, Mar 3 After the Bell 0.28 COST Costco Wholesale Corp Wed, Mar 3 -----N/A----- 0.47 EDP Elec de Portugal, S.A Wed, Mar 3 During the Market N/A GLH Gallaher Group PLC Wed, Mar 3 Before the Bell 1.89 HOTT Hot Topic Wed, Mar 3 After the Bell 0.44 LFL LAN Chile Wed, Mar 3 -----N/A----- 0.34 MIK Michaels Stores Wed, Mar 3 After the Bell 1.32 KWK Quicksilver Resources Wed, Mar 3 After the Bell 0.26 SKS Saks Incorporated Wed, Mar 3 Before the Bell 0.68 TLM Talisman Energy Wed, Mar 3 -----N/A----- 0.64 TS TENARIS S A Wed, Mar 3 -----N/A----- 0.41 TOY Toys R Us Wed, Mar 3 Before the Bell 1.05 ------------------------- THUSDAY ----------------------------- AMI ALARIS Medical, Inc. Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell 0.18 CZN Citizens Comm Co. Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell 0.09 DLM Del Monte Foods Thu, Mar 4 -----N/A----- 0.26 HAVS Havas Advertising Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell N/A KWD Kellwood Company Thu, Mar 4 After the Bell 0.46 MBG Mandalay Resort Group Thu, Mar 4 After the Bell 0.31 MDZ MDS Inc. Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell N/A NTLI NTL INC Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell -2.55 PBY Pep Boys Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell 0.04 PKZ PETROKAZAKHSTAN INC Thu, Mar 4 During the Market 1.28 PT Portugal Telecom SGPS Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell N/A REXMY REXAM PLC Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell 1.46 SPLS Staples, Inc. Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell 0.41 SZE Suez SA Thu, Mar 4 -----N/A----- N/A SBL Symbol Technologies Thu, Mar 4 After the Bell 0.09 UPL Ultra Petroleum Corp Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell 0.16 VRX Valeant Pharm Intl Thu, Mar 4 Before the Bell 0.20 HLTH WebMD Thu, Mar 4 After the Bell 0.09 ------------------------- FRIDAY ------------------------------- BFR BBVA Banco Frances Fri, Mar 5 -----N/A----- N/A SHR Schering AG Fri, Mar 5 -----N/A----- N/A ---------------------------------------------- Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks... ---------------------------------------------- Symbol Co Name Ratio Payable Executable AME AMETEK Inc 2:1 Feb 27th Mar 1st HCP Hlth Care Prop Investors 2:1 Mar 1st Mar 2nd SJW SJW Corp 3:1 Mar 1st Mar 2nd FWFC Washington FinancialCorp 5:4 Mar 1st Mar 2nd AVP Avon Products Inc 2:1 Mar 1st Mar 2nd HCSG Healthcare Services 3:2 Mar 1st Mar 2nd BFCF BFC Financial Corp 5:4 Mar 1st Mar 2nd POG Patina Oil & Gas Corp 2:1 Mar 3rd Mar 4th TRMB Trimble 3:2 Mar 4th Mar 5th CLFC Center Financial Corp 2:1 Mar 5th Mar 8th WGO Winnebago 2:1 Mar 5th Mar 8th SSNC SS&C Technologies, Inc 3:2 Mar 5th Mar 8th VAPH Vaso Active Pharma, Inc 3:1 Mar 5th Mar 8th PII Polaris Industries Inc 2:1 Mar 8th Mar 9th LWAY Lifeway Foods, Inc 2:1 Mar 8th Mar 9th MPX Marine Products Corp 3:2 Mar 10th Mar 11th FIC Fair Isaac Corp 3:2 Mar 10th Mar 11th EXC Exelon Corp 2:1 Mar 10th Mar 11th HWFG Harrington West Finl Grp 6:5 Mar 11th Mar 12th CTX Centex Corporation 2:1 Mar 12th Mar 13th -------------------------- Economic Reports This Week -------------------------- Q4 Earnings are finally slowing to a crawl but investors are more focused on economic news. This week we have a boatload of reports throughout the week. ============================================================== -For- ---------------- Monday, 03/01/04 ---------------- Personal Income (BB) Jan Forecast: 0.5% Previous: 0.2% Personal Spending (BB) Jan Forecast: 0.4% Previous: 0.4% Construction Spending (DM) Jan Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 0.4% ISM Index (DM) Feb Forecast: 62.0 Previous: 63.6 ----------------- Tuesday, 03/02/04 ----------------- Auto Sales (NA) Feb Forecast: 5.6M Previous: 5.2M Truck Sales (NA) Feb Forecast: 8.0M Previous: 7.8M ------------------- Wednesday, 03/03/04 ------------------- ISM Services (DM) Feb Forecast: 64.0 Previous: 65.7 Fed's Being Book (DM) ------------------ Thursday, 03/04/04 ------------------ Initial Claims (BB) 02/28 Forecast: N/A Previous: 350K Productivity-Rev. (BB) Q4 Forecast: 2.6% Previous: 2.7% Factory Orders (DM) Jan Forecast: 1.1% Previous: 1.1% ---------------- Friday, 03/05/04 ---------------- Nonfarm Payrolls (BB) Feb Forecast: 135K Previous: 112K Unemployment Rate (BB) Feb Forecast: 5.6% Previous: 5.6% Hourly Earnings (BB) Feb Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.1% Average Workweek (BB) Feb Forecast: 33.8 Previous: 33.7 Consumer Credit (DM) Jan Forecast: $5.5B Previous: $6.6B Definitions: DM= During the Market BB= Before the Bell AB= After the Bell NA= Not Available ====================================================== Trading Ideas ====================================================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ONE Bank One Corp 53.98 +0.96 MO Altria Group Inc 57.55 +0.53 KFT Kraft Foods Inc 33.79 +0.53 DEO Diageo Plc (ADS) 56.65 +0.87 CAJ Canon Inc (ADR) 49.15 +0.82 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- HLR Hollinger Internat Inc 18.60 +1.30 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- DNA Genetech Inc 107.89 +4.79 IACI Interactivecorp 32.57 +1.45 GDW Golden West Financial 115.42 +3.24 OMC Omnicom Group Inc 81.80 +2.50 IGT Internat Game Technology 39.24 +1.84 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- WYE Wyeth 39.50 -1.10 RY Royal Bank of Canada 47.55 -1.25 DHR Danaher Corp 89.63 -1.40 GENZ Genzyme Corp 50.45 -2.83 ETN Eaton Corp 58.54 -1.25 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- BXP Boston Properties Inc 51.23 -1.29 AVB Avalonbay Communities 50.38 -0.52 SIGY Signet Gr Plc (ADR) 56.21 -1.81 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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