PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 03-02-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Dollar Dominates Watch List: CAG, IGT, CEG, CMVT Market Sentiment: Super Tuesday? Not on Wall Street ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 03-02-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10591.48 - 86.70 10678.36 10568.88 1.87 bln 1416/1807 NASDAQ 2039.66 - 18.10 2064.40 2039.66 1.87 bln 1236/1920 S&P 100 565.86 - 3.57 569.71 565.02 Totals 2652/3727 S&P 500 1149.10 - 6.87 1156.54 1147.31 W5000 11225.44 - 64.00 11297.80 11213.94 SOX 510.24 - 2.90 521.15 509.97 RUS 2000 591.06 - 3.71 596.22 590.96 DJ TRANS 2896.90 - 19.70 2923.86 2894.80 VIX 14.86 + 0.42 14.89 14.18 VXO (VIX-O)14.60 + 0.42 14.60 14.03 VXN 22.42 - 0.12 22.93 21.97 Total Volume 4,061M Total UpVol 1,303M Total DnVol 2,716M Total Adv 3053 Total Dcl 4205 52wk Highs 705 52wk Lows 16 TRIN 1.36 NAZTRIN 1.35 PUT/CALL 0.71 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Dollar Dominates Greenspan must be irritable lately because every time he takes the stage he takes aim at the status quo. The shot heard around the world today sent the dollar to the largest one day gain against the Euro ever. Those short the dollar were not happy traders today. The ramifications from Greenspan's currency talk reverberated through all the markets, stocks, bonds and commodities. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily The economics today were mostly positive with Chain Store Sales flat but up from last weeks -0.2% rate. The most positive report was the Challenger Layoff Survey for February. The headline number showed a -34% drop in layoffs from the January level with only 77,250 in February. This was the lowest level in five months but the recent average is still in the 100,000 per month range. The level prior to the recent recession was averaging only 50,000 per month. The drop in the headline number was very encouraging. The components showed the majority of the cuts were in the food services, financial services and industrial goods and layoffs in techs and telecom have dropped substantially. This was a positive report but the Greenspan comments far overshadowed the markets and economics were quickly forgotten. Greenspan took aim at the huge amount of U.S. debt owned by Japan and China and pulled the "gotcha" card out of his deck. He said Japan owned $650B in treasuries and China $450B. He said they bought these securities to keep their currency inline with the dollar and maintain the current favorable trade rates. Today, Greenspan said further intervention by these countries was unsustainable at the current rates. Eventually they would have to let the market forces work and sell much of the debt they currently owned. This would produce a stronger dollar and higher interest rates. Oops! Suddenly the ever declining dollar was rebounding due to the light at the end of the tunnel and those short the dollar were scrambling to cover. Also helping support the dollar was rumors of a ECB rate cut in the wings. This would remove another reason not to own the dollar and helped to provide even more incentive to cover. The dollar rose nearly +2% against the Euro and it was the biggest one day gain since the Euro began. The Euro fell to a two month low against the dollar. Ironically a rising dollar reduces the need for Japan and China to buy more treasury debt and that also reduces the demand for debt paper. On the bond front treasuries plummeted on the prospect of less buying from Japan and China and yields rocketed. The ten-year yields soared to close at 4.05% from the 3.94% low on Monday. With the prospect of a strong dollar returning equities saw some serious sell programs as funds lightened the load on interest sensitive issues and techs. The banking sector saw some heavy selling as did some of the home builders. In the question and answer session Greenspan was asked directly about the coming Fed rate policy. He responded with a grin that "we have said repeatedly that the current policy is accommodative and eventually we will be forced to remove that accommodation." His elaboration to that initial reply was a clear warning that the Fed patience may be wearing thin and there were rate hikes in the future. He did not indicate how far in the future and it is likely several more months or even as long as next year. He bluntly stated that hikes were coming to put the bond market on notice that the honeymoon was not going to last forever. Nobody expected it to but the recent list of weaker than expected economic reports had more analysts going on air to suggest the Fed was on hold until 2005. Greenspan cannot let that thought process continue. He has to keep the markets off balance to avoid a disaster should something unexpected come up. He has to keep the markets always on the edge to prevent traders from loading up portfolios with lopsided rate risk. The equities market was faced with the potential for higher rates sooner than expected and possibly inside the six month window and some institutions decided to take profits. The market typically discounts all events for six months in advance. With the general outlook of no rate cuts until 2005 there was little rate risk built into the next six months of earnings expectations. What happened today was the addition of some rate risk back into the current expectations. Another problem weighing on the markets is the price of oil. On Monday it hit the $37 level and closed today at $36.70. It is normally reported that every $1 increase in the price of oil costs U.S. consumers around $7 billion a year. Most budget estimates assume a historical average oil price in the $22-$25 range. We are currently $12 over that range and that is an $84 billion hit to our economy. Obviously it will hurt companies that depend on oil much more than those who don't but the end result is the U.S. consumer will end up footing the bill and that is real cash out of our pockets. This problem has been mostly ignored for the last couple months but the closer we get to $40 the more press it is going to get. Other commodities are also shooting through the roof. Copper is exploding, platinum just hit a 40 year high and even soybeans have been hitting daily contract highs. Prices for goods made with these raw materials have to rise to cover the increased costs. Again, these costs will be passed on to consumers but in a weak economy with no pricing power there has to be some earnings pressure. Corn prices just rose to a six year high and this is pressuring the livestock industry to the point where the little guys are beginning to give up. Hogs are currently trading for $45 per cwt and it costs over $42 to produce them. In 1998 hogs were selling for $8 per cwt. Corn is up +50% per bushel from last year and soymeal is up +57% over last year. The bottom line for me is that the cost of everything is spiraling up but the pricing power of the producer has not yet returned. This suggests that earnings six months from now may suffer. I got sidetracked on this thought while discussing oil and its pressure on stock prices but there are broader problems in our future. Fortunately the drop in the Euro and the gain in the dollar had a depressing impact to commodities today. It seems hedge funds had been buying commodities to hedge the falling dollar and the trades started coming unwound. Using a falling dollar to buy a rising commodity like gold, oil or soybeans makes sense as long as the divergence continues. Once the dollar begins to rise the divergence collapses. The CRB fell -3.78 today as 14 of its 17 component commodities dropped on the news. The biggest losers were cotton, platinum, silver and soybeans which fell -3.24%. Obviously there is a mixed message here and it may take sometime for the stock market to figure it out. The fallout from all the currency gyrations was a Dow that gave back nearly all of Monday's gains with a -86 point loss. What was so promising near 10700 on Monday evaporated and knocked the index back to support at 10580. We actually came very close to the 50dma currently at 10533. For a few minutes I thought the dip to 10568 was going to hold and be close enough for a test of that average but another bout of selling at the close killed the afternoon rebound. The negative close across all the averages sets up another potential retest of that average at tomorrow's open. The Nasdaq traded up in early trading to a high of 2064 and appeared determined to rescue the Dow from its weakness. The SOX helped support the Nasdaq at the open by quickly adding points to yesterday's gains. Unfortunately the Greenspan currency talk and the prospect of higher rates was bad news for tech stocks and the bottom fell out quickly. Once support at 2050 was broken it never recovered. The Nasdaq did not give up all its gains from Monday but the close was very negative with concentrated selling. XLNX and STX provided mid quarter updates after the close and traders were not happy with either. The Nasdaq closed back under its 50dma once again and we are faced with the potential for another retest of the bottom of our range at 2000. I hate it, you hate it but it is a fact of life that Greenspeak ruined a perfectly good rally once again. The best thing I can say about Tuesday is that the Russell and SOX did not sell off to the same extent as the Nasdaq and Dow. There were buyers taking advantage of the dips and they held the Russell well above its recent support and to only a -3.71 loss for the day. Were it not for the selling right at the close the loss would have been less than two points. The Russell is +12 points above its 50dma and it not in danger of a serious drop unless conditions change drastically. SOX Chart -Daily Russell-2000 Chart - Daily The SOX gained nearly +12 points on Monday and gave back only -2.87 today. Considering the market this is remarkable. At one point today the SOX was well above its 50dma at 517 and was the strongest index on the board. The SOX closed -11 points off its highs but nearly flat for the day. On Wednesday it might not be so strong. The XLNX and STX updates were not exciting and chip stocks sold off slightly in after hours. The good news and we hope it is good news is the Intel update on Thursday night. This normally provides a market boost in advance and sometimes after the update. Many times it is the trigger for the quarterly earnings run to begin. If there was ever a quarter where we needed Intel to produce a bounce this is it. Should the SOX open down tomorrow the next real support is 507 and the 100dma and then horizontal support at 500. Today the Wilshire 5000, the broadest measure of the market, came within three points of a new post 9/11 high. The Wilshire has struggled to shake off the Dow anchor for two months and today's attempt was the highest level since Feb-19th hit 11302 and the current high. On the surface I feel this is the best indication that a rally was in progress and a breakout imminent. How the Greenspan speech will eventually impact the indexes remains to be seen. Wilshire-5000 Chart - Daily We all know that the first reaction is the worst and is typically a knee jerk reaction and not necessarily the real direction for the market. Unfortunately we have a Fed meeting on March 16th and the scuttlebutt will be flowing freely for the next two weeks. Real worry will be absent because the level of new jobs has yet to rise high enough for the Fed to act. However that will not keep traders from being nervous until the meeting statement is read. Wednesday morning we will get the ISM Services report and while no surprises are expected we can not afford to be complacent. The regular ISM on Monday fell slightly but the rising employment index was the key to the Monday bounce. In the ISM Services index the employment component has fallen the last two months. This does not set a good precedent for tomorrow considering the headline number is already expected to drop a couple points. The rest of the week rests on the Intel update Thursday night and the Employment Report on Friday morning. There is no real whisper number for the Jobs report this month and the official estimate of +125,000 jobs is pretty much what is expected. Analysts have been so wrong over the last couple months that they are afraid to second guess the announcement. This sets up the Thursday close and Friday open as very volatile sessions. On Thursday we will have fear of both Intel and Jobs going into the close and we could see some weakness. On Friday morning we will have reaction to both and hopefully both will be positive. That could produce a significant relief rally. The risk here is the XLNX update tonight. They said revenue would be up +9% to +10% for the quarter which was basically a raising of the lower end of the range. It was an upgrade from the +7% to +10% range they had previously given. The lack of material improvement did not excite traders. The stock was down -3% in after hours. This is my greatest fear about Intel. If they just affirm guidance the street will not be pleased. If they raise the bottom end only slightly the street will not be pleased. There is a lot of risk and very little expected reward. Seagate, STX, also updated guidance tonight and they said first quarter disk drive orders were weaker than expected. They also expected first quarter units to decline by 5 to 6 million units. STX primarily makes disk drives for desktop PCs and a drop of five million desktop PCs would be drastic for Intel's projections. Obviously we hope somebody else got the business such as Maxtor and this is just a Seagate problem but until Intel's update we do not have a clue. Remember, Intel was already downgraded by JPM based on channel checks showing a drop in notebook sales. Either way Thursday night is going to be interesting. So, where are we going tomorrow? That is the $64 question tonight and I am afraid I do not have a satisfactory answer. With the STX/XLNX guidance we could start with a negative bias for techs. With the ISM Services that bias could be erased or enhanced depending on the employment component. I would like to think the 2020-2030 level would hold on the Nasdaq but it depends on the SOX and what traders decide to do before Thursday night. Either way I would expect 2000 to hold unless disaster strikes. On the Dow we are entering a congestion zone between 10620 and 10550. The 10550 level should hold especially as the 50dma at 10533 is rising to support it. I am expecting 500 to hold on the SOX and by extension 580 to hold on the Russell. When I say hold I am thinking about Wednesday. Until we see what fallout we have tomorrow from the bonds and techs it will be impossible to predict the rest of the week. I am still in buy the dip mode and while I would love to see another retest of Nasdaq 2000 to pickup one last bargain I would rather not face the possibility that a retest may not hold. I start getting nervous when we near that level. I feel like our ace in the hole is the 50dma on the Dow. Once that is hit it could act as an electric fence and repel the average back higher. It has held every test since April-2003 and while that should comfort me it actually worries me. Eventually it will fail and I just hope this is not that test. Technically nothing has changed. We are still trading in the same range we have seen for the last six weeks (10450- 10700 2000/2100) and until that range breaks we just need to keep buying the dips and selling the highs. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- ConAgra Foods Inc. - CAG - close: 27.44 change: +0.14 WHAT TO WATCH: Achieving a solid near-term breakout over $26.50 resistance, CAG looks poised to deliver a longer-term breakout as well. There's more resistance in the $28.00-28.25 area, but once through that barrier the stock appears clear to run to $30 and quite possibly up to the $32 level. Use a trigger over $28.25. --- International Game Technology - IGT - close: 42.65 change: +1.06 WHAT TO WATCH: We've looked at IGT several times lately in anticipation of a breakout. Over the past 3 days the stock has broken out in fine fashion and traders that took advantage of the trigger over the prior highs are sitting pretty. Based on the strong volume on this breakout, it looks significant. Look for a near-term pullback to the 10-dma to provide secondary entries ahead of a continued push higher. --- Constellation Energy Group Inc - CEG - close: 40.60 change: +0.44 WHAT TO WATCH: Repeating a pattern that is becoming very familiar, CEG has been consolidating just under resistance at its January highs for the past several weeks and the stock now looks poised to break out. Use a trigger over $40.75 and target a move towards $45. --- Comverse Technology Inc. - CMVT - close: 20.41 change: +0.47 WHAT TO WATCH: The $20 level has been a persistent barrier of resistance for CMVT since mid-January, when the stock tested it for the first time since early 2002. Breaking out over that level on expanding volume today certainly looks bullish and we're expecting a continued rally to the $23-24 area, as the stock continues to work higher in its rising channel. Entries look most favorable on a pullback to test broken resistance in the $19.50-20.00 area. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== VZ $39.46 - Following the cross of the 50-dma over the 200-dma last month, shares of VZ are certainly looking more bullish and today's breakout over the January highs looks good, especially coming on strong volume. As strong as the stock looks though, there's looming resistance just over $41. That means the best entries will come on another pullback near the $38 level that provided support for today's breakout. Target a longer-term bullish move to the $42-43 area. MVSN $18.33 - Clear proof that not everything is looking bullish, MVSN is in the process of a serious breakdown, smashing through the $19.50 support level on huge volume on Tuesday. This brings the next level of support at $17.50 into play. Use a trigger below that level and target a drop to strong support near $14. BCC $37.41 - Monday was a day full of breakouts and BCC definitely joined the party, pushing through it's $34.50 resistance to set a new 52-week high. Today's broad market weakness has the stock stumbling a bit and it looks like we'll get a second opportunity to play. Target entries on a dip and rebound from the $33.50-34.00 are and then look for a rally up to strong resistance near $37.50. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Super Tuesday? Not on Wall Street - J. Brown In a very disappointing session the Industrials erased most of Monday's gains and the NASDAQ pulled back significantly closing back under the 2050 level and its simple 50-dma. On Monday the markets felt pretty confident with strong internals and very strong up volume numbers inspired by the ISM report. What was truly encouraging was the ISM's manufacturing employment component, which signaled job growth and sparked excitement over this Friday's unemployment/jobs report. Now suddenly there were comments today that a strong jobs report might give the Fed a reason to raise rates sooner than expected. The reversal today is certainly discouraging but it did not match the bullish enthusiasm from Monday. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers 16.5 to 12 on the NYSE and 19 to 12 on the NASDAQ. Down volume was twice up volume across both exchanges. Tomorrow's ISM services index and the Fed's Beige book report will take center stage and likely drive market direction. I would expect the semiconductor sector to churn sideways in anticipation of Intel's Thursday night mid-quarter update and this could mute any big moves in the NASDAQ. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 7416 Current : 10591 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10616 50-dma: 10533 200-dma: 9688 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1158 52-week Low : 788 Current : 1149 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1146 50-dma: 1131 200-dma: 1042 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 946 Current : 1473 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1478 50-dma: 1492 200-dma: 1360 ----------------------------------------------------------------- True to form the VIX and VXO turned higher with the market's weakness today but oddly the VXN churned sideways. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.86 +0.42 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 14.60 +0.42 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 22.42 -0.12 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.71 699,614 495,954 Equity Only 0.51 597,318 305,438 OEX 0.91 24,720 22,494 QQQ 1.93 37,266 71,796 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 76.1 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 61.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 86.7 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 85.6 + 0 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 86.0 - 1 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.01 10-dma: 1.12 21-dma: 1.04 55-dma: 0.98 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1196 1160 Decliners 1653 1904 New Highs 252 151 New Lows 7 6 Up Volume 648M 577M Down Vol. 1154M 1255M Total Vol. 1820M 1849M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 02/24/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 No change for commercial traders. They remain hedged either direction. Small traders haven't made many changes either and remain bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/03/04 411,920 414,596 (2,676) (0.3%) 02/10/04 412,217 414,044 (1,827) (0.2%) 02/17/04 416,148 415,278 870 0.0% 02/24/04 417,490 416,502 988 0.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 141,465 81,926 59,539 26.7% 02/10/04 143,496 80,362 63,134 28.2% 02/17/04 141,533 84,227 57,306 25.3% 02/24/04 141,559 85,171 56,388 24.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 We're seeing a lot more action in the e-minis than the large contracts above. Commercial traders are bearish but have become slightly less so over the last week. As is typical the small traders moved the opposite direction and while bullish became less so. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/03/04 280,519 346,042 (65,523) (10.5%) 02/10/04 297,601 356,630 (59,029) ( 9.0%) 02/17/04 296,313 371,703 (75,390) (11.3%) 02/24/04 320,425 387,255 (66,830) ( 9.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 133,293 55,476 77,817 41.2% 02/10/04 110,480 58,428 52,052 30.8% 02/17/04 144,014 64,391 79,623 38.2% 02/24/04 129,894 63,524 66,370 34.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Not much change for the commercial traders in the NDX futures this week but we are seeing a change in the small traders' positions. There appears to be a bullish reversal with a large shift from shorts to longs. Of course a contrarian will note that the small trader is normally wrong so this could be a bearish development for the markets. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 43,600 41,441 2,159 2.5% 02/10/04 44,406 40,439 3,967 4.7% 02/17/04 46,104 40,385 5,719 6.6% 02/24/04 47,266 40,452 6,814 7.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 8,907 13,729 (4,822) (21.3%) 02/10/04 9,906 13,018 (3,112) (13.6%) 02/17/04 9,630 12,338 (2,708) (12.3%) 02/24/04 12,388 7,310 5,078 25.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Hmm... commercial traders have become more bullish on the Dow in the last week. Not much change from the little guys. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 17,765 9,619 8,146 29.7% 02/10/04 21,764 11,974 9,790 29.0% 02/17/04 24,451 12,907 11,544 30.9% 02/24/04 27,176 13,918 13,258 32.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/03/04 6,352 13,113 (6,761) (34.7%) 02/10/04 6,267 14,220 (7,953) (38.8%) 02/17/04 6,768 15,623 (8,855) (39.5%) 02/24/04 6,509 14,919 (8,410) (39.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 03-02-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: None Stock Splits: MVL Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= None ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- MVL announces 3-for-2 split with earnings Early this morning before the opening bell Marvel Enterprises (NYSE:MVL) announced its Q4 earnings numbers and a 3-for-2 stock split. The company reported earnings of 18 cents a share, better than estimates of 17 cents. Revenues came in at $85.8 million, which was well above analysts' estimates of 65.8 million for the quarter. The 3-for-2 split will be in the form of a stock dividend payable on March 26th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of March 12th. About the company: With a library of over 4,700 proprietary characters, Marvel Enterprises, Inc. is one of the world's most prominent character- based entertainment companies. Marvel's operations are focused in three areas: entertainment (Marvel Studios) and licensing, comic book publishing and toys (Toy Biz). Marvel facilitates the creation of entertainment projects, including feature films, DVD/home video, video games and television based on its characters and also licenses its characters for use in a wide range of consumer products and services including apparel, collectibles, snack foods and promotions. Marvel's characters and plot lines are created by its comic book division which continues to expand its leadership position in the U.S. and worldwide while also serving as an invaluable source of intellectual property. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change VZ Verizon Communications 39.46 +0.76 SBC SBC Communications 25.48 +1.23 BLS Bellsouth Corp 28.81 +1.13 AET Aetna Inc 80.89 +0.52 KIM Kimco Realty 48.50 +1.10 AVB AvalonBay Communities 52.04 +0.84 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- ELN Elan Corp 17.28 +2.37 JUPM JupiterMedia Corp 10.20 +1.13 ILE Isolagen Inc 8.60 +1.05 PCYC Pharmacyclics Inc 13.24 +1.80 NETM Netmanage Inc 10.80 +1.47 MAMA Mamma.com Inc 10.10 +6.05 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- HIT Hitachi Ltd 69.50 +1.32 IGT Intl Game Technology 42.66 +1.07 RIG Transocean Inc 31.15 +1.19 HB Hillenbrand Industries 69.20 +1.44 ACV Alberto-Culver 43.60 +1.61 HSIC Henry Schein Inc 73.97 +1.33 THX Houston Exploration 40.01 +1.22 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- HBC HSBC Holdings 78.78 -2.52 WFSI WFS Financial 41.56 -2.39 SYNT Syntel Inc 26.23 -1.31 CWEI Clayton Williams Energy 30.12 -3.72 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- NYB New York Community 33.05 -1.80 SSNC SS&C Technologies 45.78 -3.69 PBKS Provident Bankshares 31.90 -1.06 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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