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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 03/03/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 03-03-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:  Stocks Churn Ahead of Intel and Jobs Report
Watch List:  BSX, TRMS, BBY, COH

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     01-28-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10468.37 -141.55 10658.43 10437.78 2.29 bln    740/2166
NASDAQ   2077.37 - 38.67  2128.00  2073.15 2.30 bln    840/2263
S&P 100   559.49 -  7.66   569.55   558.27   Totals   1580/4429
S&P 500  1128.48 - 15.57  1149.14  1126.50
RUS 2000  583.91 - 11.26   598.46   582.84
DJ TRANS 2967.68 - 73.54  3044.87  2964.88
VIX        16.78 +  1.43    40.13    15.29
VXO        17.10 +  1.78    17.11    15.24
VXN        25.16 +  2.13    25.21    22.83
Total Volume 5,145M
Total UpVol  1,040M
Total DnVol  3,963M
52wk Highs     636
52wk Lows       12
TRIN          1.39
PUT/CALL      0.85
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Stocks Churn Ahead of Intel and Jobs Report
by James Brown

A slight majority of stocks turned around early morning weakness
on Wednesday to close mildly higher as major indices ended the
session near unchanged.  Uninspiring economic news coupled with
caution ahead of Intel's mid-quarter update on Thursday night and
the jobs report on Friday morning kept stocks in neutral.
Meanwhile the media coverage of the Walt Disney shareholder vote
to keep embattled CEO Michael Eisner reached a frenzied state.

Global markets were generally lower lead by a 277-point decline
in the Chinese Hang Seng index.  The U.S. dollar continued its
gains against the euro while trading close to unchanged versus
the yen.  Crude oil futures slipped 86 cents to $35.80 a barrel
after the U.S. Department of Energy and the American Petroleum
Institute reported a rise last week in crude oil supplies of 1.6
to 2.0 million barrels compared to previous estimates for a
decline.  Gold slipped $1.10 to $392.70 an ounce and copper
futures plummeted 5.1% to $1.301 a pound, erasing last week's
gains.

Market internals for the U.S. exchanges were mixed.  Advancing
stocks just edged past decliners by a narrow margin on the NYSE
while the A/D line was virtually even on the NASDAQ.  Overall
volume was soft but down volume outweighed up volume on both
exchanges.  The volatility indices traded higher on the early
morning weakness but reversed course as stocks pared their
losses.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.63 points to 10,593
and traded in a relatively tight 60-point range.  The index held
support at the 10,550 level and its 50-dma once again.  The S&P
500 followed the Dow with a 1.93-point gain to 1,151, regaining
all of this morning's losses and holding above support at its 40-
dma.  The tech-heavy NASDAQ was hampered by selling in the
semiconductor sector but only lost 6 points to close at 2033.
Trading in the NASDAQ Composite was limited to a 19-point range.
Insurance, biotechs and bank stocks were the strongest sectors
while investors rotated out of chips, Internets, networking and
hardware issues.

Chart of the DJIA:



Chart of the NASDAQ:



The major economic reports out this morning were the Institute
for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index (or services
index) and the Fed's Beige Book report.  The January ISM services
index came in at 65.7, a record high.  Economists were expecting
a drop to 63 percent in February.  The actual number was 60.8, a
bullish reading but worse than expected.  Readings over 50
indicate expansion and growth and February's 60.8 marks the 11th
consecutive month of growth for the services index.  On Monday
investors were encouraged by a better than expected reading in
the manufacturing sector's employment index.  Today's services
employment component slipped from 53.4 in January to 52.7 in
February, which bolsters the very cautious enthusiasm for this
Friday's employment report.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report, which reports on
economic conditions from the Fed's 12 regional districts, was
largely ignored.  The report was positive and suggested that
employment was improving albeit slowly.  Expectations for a
strong Q1 GDP number are still alive but no one seems to be
expecting any blow out job number gains.

Speaking of jobs Disney CEO Michael Eisner may be in for a
tougher fight than he thought to keep his.  Today was Disney's
annual shareholder meeting where investors voted to re-elect
Eisner.  Since Eisner was running unopposed for the top spot at
Disney dissidents seeking his removal made their voices known by
"withholding" their votes.  Of the 1.779 billion votes cast about
771.7 million or 43% of the vote elected to oust Eisner.  This
was an unprecedented occurrence and will likely force the Board
of Directors to reconsider their support for Eisner.  Adding to
the pressure to remove Eisner, who has lead Disney for 20 years,
was a statement from California's CalPERS pension fund who asked
Michael to step down by the end of the year.  Comcast Corp
(CMCSA), who issued an unsolicited bid to buy Disney a couple of
weeks ago, wasted no time and quickly issued a statement telling
the Disney board and shareholders that Disney's management should
meet with Comcast to reconsider their "generous" proposal.
Disney (DIS), a Dow component, lost 11 cents on the session to
close at $26.65.

Another Dow component doomed to suffer the spotlight tomorrow is
Intel Corp (INTC).  Intel will hold their mid-quarter update
Thursday after the closing bell.  Earlier this week on Monday a
J.P.Morgan analyst downgraded INTC due to slower notebook sales
and product delays.  JPM also suspects that Intel will not raise
guidance tomorrow for the first time in almost a year.  Setting
the tone was Xilinx's mid-quarter update on Tuesday night.
Xilinx, another semiconductor maker, only narrowed their guidance
to the top of their previous range and investors punished the
stock with a 3.99% loss today.  If Intel fails to raise guidance
or somehow inspire investors again Friday could be a very tough
session for tech stocks.  Caution ahead of tomorrow's meeting
drove both Intel and the SOX semiconductor index to a 1.89% loss.
Intel and the sector are likely to trade sideways to down
tomorrow and this could be a wet blanket on any attempted bounce
in the NASDAQ tomorrow.

I'm not expecting a lot of excitement tomorrow.  We do have a few
economic reports but nothing too inspiring.  The January Factory
Orders report is expected to dip 0.6% from December's 1.1% gain.
The Q4 productivity numbers are forecasted to rise 2.7%, which
would confirm an earlier preliminary reading.  The weekly initial
jobless claims are expected to drop 5,000 to 345,000 this week.
The real focus will remain on Intel's report Thursday night and
the Jobs report Friday morning.  Estimates are for unemployment
to remain unchanged at 5.6% while the non-farms payroll report is
expected to show a gain of 125,000 new jobs in February.  I would
hesitate to initiate new bullish positions, especially in tech
stocks until after the Jobs report.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Boston Scientific Corp. - BSX - close: 43.15 change: +0.95

WHAT TO WATCH: Choppy action in the broad market certainly isn't
holding BSX back, as it continues to set one new high after
another.  After a late February dip, the stock is marching higher
again and is on the verge of breaking out.  Use a trigger over
the February high ($43.60) and look for a rally into the $47-48
area.




---

Trimeris Inc. - TRMS - close: 18.12 change: +0.50

WHAT TO WATCH: Disappointment over the progress of TRMS' HIV drug
sent the stock into a nosedive last fall, continuing the plunge
that began at the end of July.  But it looks like it has finally
reached bottom, as demonstrated by the lack of negative price
action following its recent earnings report.  TRMS broke over the
50-dma today and looks poised to challenge the post earnings high
at $18.89.  If TRMS is able to scale that resistance, look for a
move to fill the gap to $20 and possibly test $21 resistance.




---

Best Buy Company Inc - BBY - close: 54.31 change: +0.24

WHAT TO WATCH: The consolidation pattern of the past few months
may be coming to an end, as BBY inches closer to key resistance
at $55.50, right at the bottom of its early December gap.  A
break above that level should be good for a run back to the $59-
60 resistance area, which is now right at the bottom of the
broken channel.




---

Coach Inc. - COH - close: 42.47 change: +0.47

WHAT TO WATCH: Briefly halted below the $40 resistance level late
last month, shares of COH blasted higher on Monday and haven't
even begun to look back yet, with the stock closing at a new all-
time high today.  It may be a bit too aggressive to chase the
stock higher, but a pullback near $40 would provide a great entry
for new bullish positions.  Target a rally up to the $45-46 area.




---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

FLML $24.33 - The past few months have seen a see-saw battle
between the bulls and bears in FLML, but it looks like the bears
are winning, with the recent pattern of lower highs.  Today's
drop may be the end of the latest feeble rebound and if price
breaks under last week's lows at $23, we can look for a quick
drop to $20 support.

PMCS $19.68 - Technology stocks just aren't looking very healthy
right now and PMCS broke solidly below both the 100-dma and
horizontal support just below $20 today.  Look for continued
weakness to pressure the stock down towards strong support near
$17.50.  Failed rebounds in the $20.00-20.50 area will provide
the best entries.

FNF $39.62 - It doesn't take a genius to see that shares of FNF
look pretty extended up here, but that doesn't mean another
strong breakout isn't lurking around the corner.  The stock
pushed up very near its recent highs on Wednesday, and looks
poised for a breakout to new all-time highs.  Use a trigger over
$40.




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

SBC     SBC Communications Inc     25.41    -0.07
VZ      Verizon Communications     39.01    -0.45
BLS     Bellsouth Corp             28.68    -0.13
AET     Aetna Inc New              81.21    +0.32
KIM     Kimco Realty Corp          48.50    +0.00


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ELN     Elan Corp Plc              16.36    -0.64


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

HIT     Hitachi Ltd                69.14    -0.36
IGT     Internat Game Technology   42.07    -0.58
RIG     Transocean Inc             30.87    -0.28
HB      Hillenbrand Industries     69.21    +0.01
ACV     Alberto-Culver CI B        45.20    +1.55


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

HBC     HSBC Holdings Plc          77.75    -1.03
LOW     Lowe's Companies Inc       55.68    +0.40
NYB     New York Community Bancorp 32.75    -0.30
MERQ    Mercury Interactive Corp   46.10    -0.73
WFSI    WFS Financial Inc          41.48    -0.08


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

None


=================================================================
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send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 03-03-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  LIN, ARA

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  New Bearish Plays:    NVLS

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  New Bullish plays:    HAL

Stock Splits
  Announcements:       CNT


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

LIN - raise stop to $33.75
 -- plan to exit at $36.25

ARA - raise stop to $34.95
 -- plan to exit at $37.75


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------

  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Novellus Systems - NVLS - close: 31.15 change: -0.79 stop: 34.00

Company Description:
Providing equipment for advanced Semiconductor manufacturing,
NVLS focuses on advanced, high-productivity thin film deposition
systems and surface preparation systems used in the fabrication
of integrated circuits.  Utilizing Chemical Vapor Deposition
(CVD), Physical Vapor Deposition, electroplating, photoresist
strip and residue removal systems, the company's products provide
high film quality while attaining the high levels of productivity
required to meet the semiconductor industry's need for high-
volume, low-cost wafer production.

Why we like it:
Even on a nominally flat day, the Semiconductor index (SOX.X)
just couldn't hold it together, shedding nearly 2% to close right
on the $500 support level.  This is the key sector for the Techs
and the fact that it is continuing to deteriorate does not bode
well for the bulls.  Among Chip stocks, NVLS has been
exceptionally weak following its meltdown at the end of January.
Since then the stock has been trading in what appears to be a
continuation flag pattern and today's break below the bottom of
the trading range for the past several weeks suggests a
continuation of the slide that preceded the consolidation.  NVLS
is below all of its moving averages to the point that nothing
longer-term than the 30-dma ($34.03) is even part of the near-
term equation.  One particular thing worth noting though is that
the 50-dma ($37.26) did cross under the 200-dma ($37.71) on
Monday, and this is typically a bearish omen.

The PnF chart offers no hope for the bulls either, with the
strong sell signal generated in late January producing a bearish
price target of $19.  A trade at $31 will reinforce the current
bearish picture with another PnF Sell signal and with price well
below the bullish support line, the bears should be able to have
some fun.  The only fly in the ointment is the scheduled mid-
quarter update from INTC after the close tomorrow.  Any surprises
there could produce some volatility, meaning that conservative
traders may want to wait for the outcome from that news event
before playing.  With today's break of recent support, we aren't
going to use a trigger on NVLS.  Momentum traders can enter on a
break under $31 (preferably after the INTC news is out of the
way), while a bounce back into the $32-33 resistance area will
provide a better entry price.  The 10-dma ($32.39) and 20-dma
($32.89) should reinforce this resistance area, unless there is a
big positive surprise from INTC tomorrow.  We're initially
placing our stop at $34, which will be above last week's intraday
high and will be above the 30-dma by tomorrow.  While initial
support will likely be found in the $27-28 area, we're targeting
a continued fall to $26, the site of the lows from last spring.

Annotated Chart of NVLS:



Picked on March 3rd at      $31.15
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              1/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    6.48 mln




==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Halliburton Hldg. - HAL - close: 31.50 change: -0.40 stop: 30.00

Company Description:
Halliburton Company provides a variety of services, products,
maintenance, engineering and construction to energy, industrial
and governmental customers.  The company operates in two business
segments: energy services group and engineering and construction
group.  The energy services group provides a wide range of
discrete services and products, as well as integrated solutions
to customers for the exploration, development and production of
oil and gas.  The engineering and construction group provides
onshore operation, offshore operation, government operation,
operations and maintenance services and infrastructure services
to energy and industrial customers and government entities
worldwide.

Why we like it:
After several months of consolidation, HAL shook off the effects
of the bad press surrounding its contract awards in the Middle
East and broke out strongly over the $25 level in mid-December.
Since then, we've seen the stock trading in a methodical manner,
producing a clean ascending channel that promises to lead the
stock up to next firm resistance near $35.  After pushing to new
highs on Monday, HAL rolled over near the midline of its rising
channel and has now pulled back right to the bottom of that
channel, just above the supportive 20-dma ($31.07).  With the PnF
chart solidly bullish with a vertical price target of $40.50, it
is clear that there is plenty of upside for us to take advantage
of and our $35 target for the play certainly seems reasonable.
HAL is not a fast moving stock, but the price action is
methodical, making it an ideal candidate for a longer-term play.

The pullback of the past two days is setting up the next bullish
entry point.  But with daily Stochastics just beginning their
trek from overbought towards oversold, we can afford to be
patient in seeking that entry.  Look for a drop to the $31 area
to provide the best entry into the play, but keep in mind that it
may require a few days to work off the near-term overbought
condition and for price to reverse back upwards.  We're using a
fairly tight stop at $30, as that is just below the reaction low
from February 24th, as well as the 30-dma ($30.53).  Should both
of those levels give way, we can rightly assume that HAL will
need to regain its footing before continuing upwards.  If price
rebounds strongly from current levels to hit the top of the
channel (currently at $34), we'd recommend harvesting some gains
and then look to re-enter on the next pullback to the bottom of
the channel.

Annotated Chart of HAL:



Picked on March 3rd at      $31.50
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              1/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    3.86 mln



==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

CNT announces a 2-for-1 split

After today's closing bell CenterPoint Properties Trust (NYSE:CNT)
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock
split and a cash dividend of 78 cents per share.

The 2:1 split is subject to shareholder approval and a vote to
increase the number of authorized shares from 50 million to 120
million.  CNT's annual shareholder meeting will be May 18th, 2004
and the shareholder vote on the split will be held then.  If
approved management will then announce the record and distribution
dates.

The cash dividend of 78 cents per share is payable on April 14th,
2004 to shareholders on record as of April 7th.


About the company:
CenterPoint is a publicly traded real estate investment trust
(REIT) and the largest industrial property Company in the 1.3
billion-square-foot Chicago regional market. The Company and its
affiliates currently own and operate approximately 36 million
square feet and own or control an additional 3,267 acres of land
upon which 50.1 million square feet could be developed. The
Company is focused on providing unsurpassed tenant satisfaction
and adding value to its shareholders through customer driven
management, investment, development and redevelopment of
warehouse, distribution, light manufacturing buildings and
logistics infrastructure. The first major REIT to focus on the
industrial property sector, CenterPoint had a total market
capitalization of approximately $2.7 billion as of December 31,
2003.  (Source: Company Press Release)

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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