PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 03-09-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Trend Change! Watch List: AFFX, IMAX, YUM, CVTX Market Sentiment: 2004 Has Turned Negative ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 03-09-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10456.96 - 72.50 10529.70 10424.07 1.87 bln 1215/2031 NASDAQ 1995.16 - 13.60 2011.83 1987.29 2.10 bln 1022/2171 S&P 100 560.90 - 2.77 563.77 558.88 Totals 2237/4202 S&P 500 1140.58 - 6.62 1147.32 1136.84 W5000 11147.30 - 73.30 11220.62 11147.30 SOX 486.37 + 1.10 488.04 479.65 RUS 2000 585.95 - 6.56 593.26 584.31 DJ TRANS 2834.30 - 34.40 2869.63 2826.65 VIX 16.60 + 0.81 16.74 15.56 VXO (VIX-O)16.37 + 1.04 16.89 15.93 VXN 24.70 + 0.62 24.86 24.03 Total Volume 4,318M Total UpVol 999M Total DnVol 3,214M Total Adv 2569 Total Dcl 4749 52wk Highs 380 52wk Lows 16 TRIN 1.08 NAZTRIN 2.42 PUT/CALL 0.97 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Trend Change! I have been telling you for the last six weeks to keep buying the dip and selling the highs as long as we stayed in our range. That range was 10450-10700 on the Dow and 2000-2100 on the Nasdaq. Boys and girls the stress moved up a couple notches today with the Dow closing at 10456 and the Nasdaq 1997. We have not fallen off the cliff yet but we can definitely see over the edge. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily What the heck happened to the rally? Friday the Dow hit 10643 AFTER the negative jobs report and closed positive for the day. Monday we jumped to 10634 again and then the bottom fell out. The Nasdaq hit 2068 on Friday, 2058 on Monday then bottomed at 1988 today. Where did all the buyers go? There are multiple reasons for the dip. In no particular order the first major cause was a deluge of new stock coming to market. Today alone there was over $6 billion according to TrimTabs.com. $3.8 billion of that came from GE and was their first major stock sale since 1962. GE made this announcement without warning before the open on Monday and the largest market cap stock on the Dow dropped from $32.80 on Friday to 31.31 today. This was a major depression for the Dow, not just because of the stock drop but for the blow to sentiment by seeing the stock drop to a two month low. Analysts thought GE was cheap already considering their growth prospects but they were unprepared for the $16 billion drop in market cap from the sudden decline. Adding to the Dow decline was a -2.11 drop in Intel from the closing levels last Thursday when they posted weaker than expected guidance. Not only did Intel lead the semiconductor decline but they damaged sentiment once again when they fell below their 200 dma at 28.37. This is a normal sell signal for funds and with volume at 92 million shares today there was obviously a lot of institutional selling. With GE and INTC headlining the selling on the Dow it appears there was a lot of sympathy selling as well. UTX, IP, DD, GM, AA, BA and IBM all dropped sharply. There was no common cause other than the drop in bullish sentiment. The sentiment drop began on Friday with the jobs report. The soaring bonds exceeded expected gains and just continued to rocket higher. They continued rising today with the yields on the ten-year dropping to 3.71% and the lowest level since July 2003. Analysts are scratching their heads for the reason why. Sure the Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future but that should not have impacted bonds so strongly. Some are now speculating that we are seeing some asset allocation programs on fears of a weakening recovery. The terms recession and deflation are starting to make it back into the press. If the campaign wars are going to depress consumer sentiment and the recovery appears to be stalling then fears of a 2nd recession start to creep into the investor consciousness. Stocks have been on an extended rally since March of 2003 and with the second half of election years not know for strong gains maybe it is time for funds take profits and move into the safety of bonds. At least that is the current thought process. On the technical side a lot of the Nasdaq weakness was due to the drop in the SOX that was led by Intel. After hitting a high of 560 in January the SOX has been fighting a long and protracted battle to hold its gains. This week the Intel slide helped push it from 510 on Monday to a low of 480 today. This -30 point drop, nearly -6%, in only two days was very destructive for the Nasdaq as chips normally lead techs. We are on the verge of serious technical damage across the various indexes. The Dow is on the absolute edge of the cliff at 10450 with only one more minor support level left at 10400 before facing a serious drop. Today was the first time since March-14th 2003 that the Dow failed to trade above or at least touch its 50dma. This is very bad for sentiment even though it only missed by 30 points. It has been support for so long that a failure here suggests substantial weakness. I have discussed this many times over the last couple months. Recently I have explained that the Dow had not dropped to the 50 but the 50 had risen to the Dow. Whether this is material to the actual feeling in the market is unknown. Discounting the 50dma for a moment the Dow did pull back to very strong support at 10425-10450 and managed to hold its ground. It is extremely critical that this level holds with 10400 the self destruct trigger. The Nasdaq traded within 6 points of its 100dma back on Feb-24th and recovered to trade nearly 80 points higher. Today that average was broken at 1999 and the index closed at 1995. This is not only under the average but also below the psychological 2000 level. Granted it is only a couple points and a quick rebound tomorrow will erase the memory of the break very quickly. The danger we face here is a new leg down and the next dip could take us all the way to 1900. This is a critical turning point for the Nasdaq. The major reason for the Nasdaq drop was the SOX as I previously mentioned. The SOX broke its 100dma at 497 yesterday as well as critical support at 495. The good news was a positive close on Tuesday after a double bottom intraday at 480. Traders will be cheering tomorrow if the SOX can hold that level and begin a move to higher ground. Support levels below us would be 475 and then 450 but nobody wants to consider that risk. Aiding the drop today was the IBD Chip Index report which fell a couple points to 54.5. SOX Chart - Daily Unfortunately the Russell has fallen and can't get up. The Russell dropped to 586 and showed almost no rebound at the close. The small caps are getting dumped along with big caps and this suggests the selling is very broad based and heavy. The 50dma is currently 583 and we came very close today. It has been support since March and was touched twice in February. The 50ma is way above horizontal support at 566 and trust me, we don't want to go there. Russell Chart - Daily Wilshire Chart - Daily Our index of last resort is the Wilshire-5000 and it followed the other indexes down today. Fortunately the horizontal support at 11076 and the 50ma at 11084 are not only very close together but still below the close at 11147. This suggests the light selling we are seeing in the Wilshire may not be able to push through this support. To recap how we closed today: Dow 10456, support 10400-10425 Nasdaq 1997, support 1999-2000 (critical) Wilshire 11147, support 11075-11100 S&P 1140, support 1137 SOX 486, support 480 RUT 586,support 583 Clearly we are at critical levels AND at the bottom of the range we have traded for the last two months. This is the edge of the cliff. Whether we are either here to just enjoy the view or investors are preparing to jump should be known over the next couple days. Volume did spike today to the highest level since Feb-19th and declining volume was 3:1 over advancing. 3:1 is strong but is was far from a blowout day of 5:1 or greater. Higher volume on a down day is bad but at this level it is only an early warning sign to be watched for signs of an increase. Also impacting sentiment today were things like the Nasdaq all time high anniversary. On March-10th 2000 the Nasdaq posted its all time closing high of 5048. Traders with large profits on the table tend to remember milestone events with fears of a repeat. Also coincidentally it was announced today that the assets of all stock mutual funds last week exceeded the highs set in that same March 2000 time frame after three years of declines. Everybody is back in the market at or near the top. The oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, also said the market is overvalued and he expects no new purchases until stocks settle some. Of course as a value investor it is in his best interest to try and talk it down so he can buy cheaper. Smith Barney lowered their end of year S&P target to 1025. It closed today at 1140 and that would be a -10% drop. MER suggested traders take a more defensive posture. Caution is breaking out all over. The biggest fear appears to be lack of jobs. TXN updated guidance last night to the high end of prior estimates and failed to impress buyers. This suggests we are faced with simple profit taking on fears that the recovery may be slowing. Add in the published survey today that Bush is behind Kerry in the polls and suddenly the outcome of the election is in doubt. The locked in tax cuts may not be as locked in as investors thought and the economic future is starting to cloud over. Interest rates may be falling and the Fed may be stable but suddenly that may not be the biggest cloud on the horizon. The current rally was built on lower taxes, higher spending and the promise that better things were to come. If the regime making that promise is in danger of being deposed then that promise may be in danger. While I do not think Kerry will win it is not what I think or you think that matters. It is fear of the unknown that matters and the market is definitely afraid of the rising economic uncertainty. Where do we go from here? As I showed you above we are at critical levels in the markets. We are right at the bottom of the trading range that has held since Dec-30th. We have been buying this level and selling the highs for two months. Has sentiment changed significantly enough to modify that plan? I would say yes. I am not saying run for the sidelines but I do recommend caution. I would not hesitate to buy the dip if I see any indication of strength at tomorrows open. However I would not hesitate to switch sides and short the market on a Dow break below 10400. We are at the bottom of the swing and the rubber band is stretched to the breaking point. We are about to either rebound in stunning fashion or that band is going to break and there is a serious drop ahead of us. The signal is clear. Stay long over 10400 and flat or short under 10400. Any continued drop from here could be signaling that there will be no April earnings run and the election year decline has started. I have been projecting mid April for that event but the jobs report and the lowered Intel guidance may have turned the tide early. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Affymetrix Inc. - AFFX - close: 33.72 change: -1.51 WHAT TO WATCH: Technology weakness spilled into other areas of the market today, with the Biotechnology index (BTK.X) seeing a second day of strong selling. AFFX broke its uptrend line from the January low and it looks like the beginning of some much- needed profit taking and the 50-dma just under $30 looks like a reasonable target. Use a trigger under today's low. --- Imax Corp. - IMAX - close: 6.33 change: -1.13 WHAT TO WATCH: They may have the best movie technology, but IMAX didn't thrill investors today with its disappointing earnings results and the stock got hit for a 15% decline on huge volume. This broke a line of support at $6.60 that has been in place since May. Play the breakdown, either by entering on a failed bounce under $7 or on a break below $6.20. Target next support near $5.50. --- Yum! Brands Inc. - YUM - close: 38.09 change: +0.19 WHAT TO WATCH: Following last week's breakout to new all-time highs, YUM needed to undergo a bit of consolidation before continuing along its bullish path. The stock has been quite resilient so far this week, and is holding above its prior highs near $37. This mild pullback looks like a great chance to establish enter the play on intraday dips near $37.00-37.50. Target a move up to the $40-41 area. --- CV Therapeutics Inc. - CVTX - close: 15.26 change: -0.38 WHAT TO WATCH: In contrast to the rest of the market, CVTX just hasn't been able to make any upward progress over the past several weeks and has been building a bearish descending wedge. The stock broke down below the bottom of that pattern today, pressured by the weakness in the rest of the market. Not only did the stock break support, but it also punctured the 50-dma and this looks like the beginning of a significant breakdown. Use a trigger under $15 and target solid support at $13.50. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== EXTR $7.50 - Networking stocks got hit hard today, just like Semiconductor stocks yesterday and that knocked EXTR out of its recent consolidation and right down to key support at its 200- dma. A break below that average will have the stock vulnerable to a test of its September and December lows near $6.20. Use a trigger under $7.30. JNPR $23.84 - Ever since topping out over $30 in mid-January, JNPR has been drifting lower in what looks like a bull flag pattern. The selling over the past two sessions is pushing the stock near the bottom of that pattern, as well as the bottom of the January gap. This is a very aggressive play, where we're looking to buy the bottom of the gap near $23 and play for a rebound back near the $27 level. An alternative strategy would be to wait for a break above the top of the flag (currently $26) and then look for a return to the $30 level. ET $13.39 - Riding the bullish wave in the Brokerage sector, ET had an impressive run from the $4 level to above $15 earlier this year, but it looks like the party is over. The stock has been falling sharply the past two days and is poised just over key support after breaking the 50-dma today on expanding volume. Use a trigger at $13 and target a drop to next support near $11. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== 2004 Has Turned Negative - J. Brown Uh-oh! The NASDAQ's close under technical and psychological support at the 2000 level looks pretty discouraging. The two-day sell-off has finally erased the last remaining gains for 2004 and suggests we could see even more weakness ahead. The 10% correction that some market pundits have been calling for these last several weeks (and months) would put the NASDAQ at 1937. Considering the slow pace of the market's decline over the last seven weeks the NASDAQ's simple 200-dma might just climb to 1937 in time to meet up with the index. Wouldn't that be a coincidence. However, I'm not predicting that NASDAQ is heading toward its 200-dma just yet. While the recent drop in the NASDAQ and the close under 10,500 in the Dow Industrials is pretty demoralizing for many traders there are still plenty of investors that have been looking for the right entry point, the right pull back to initiate new positions. There have been plenty of analysts predicting a pull back ahead of the Q1 earnings season and they follow up with their expectations that strong profits will re- ignite the rally. We'll have to wait and see. Short-term I wouldn't be surprise to see the NASDAQ bounce tomorrow. Looking at the intraday charts the rebound in the last half hour looked promising and any rally attempt on Wednesday could be lead by the semiconductors. The SOX was one of two sectors that managed to close in the green today, thanks to positive mid-quarter updates from TXN and TQNT on Monday night. Looking closer at the SOX we see it found support twice today at the 480 level and was rebounding higher into the close. Now maybe this move is only a short-term bounce in what could be a new descending channel for the SOX but it can still inspire a bounce in the NASDAQ. Tomorrow holds the dubious honor of marking the absolute top in the markets way back on March 10th, 2000 when the NASDAQ closed at 5048. Wow, what a journey it has been these last four years! ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 7416 Current : 10456 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10579 50-dma: 10558 200-dma: 9738 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 760 Current : 1140 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1148 50-dma: 1137 200-dma: 1047 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 946 Current : 1437 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1167 50-dma: 1495 200-dma: 1368 ----------------------------------------------------------------- The volatility indices all produced pretty big moves higher today as the broader indices broke various support levels. However, they remain within their long-term descending patterns so we have yet to see a change in trend. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.60 +0.81 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 16.37 +1.04 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 24.70 +0.62 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.97 830,649 803,092 Equity Only 0.86 637,026 545,759 OEX 0.92 44,054 40,475 QQQ 1.33 80,712 107,594 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 75.9 + 0 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 51.0 - 9 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 86.6 - 3 Bull Confirmed S&P 500 84.4 - 1 Bull Confirmed S&P 100 87.0 + 1 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.27 10-dma: 1.18 21-dma: 1.54 55-dma: 1.04 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 985 996 Decliners 1862 2072 New Highs 125 75 New Lows 8 4 Up Volume 299M 625M Down Vol. 652M 1104M Total Vol. 1815M 2077M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/02/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 In spite of a decrease in long positions by Commercial traders they still remain relatively neutral on the large S&P contracts. Small traders remain steadfastly bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/10/04 412,217 414,044 (1,827) (0.2%) 02/17/04 416,148 415,278 870 0.0% 02/24/04 417,490 416,502 988 0.0% 03/02/04 411,932 418,936 (7,004) (0.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/10/04 143,496 80,362 63,134 28.2% 02/17/04 141,533 84,227 57,306 25.3% 02/24/04 141,559 85,171 56,388 24.9% 03/02/04 148,383 84,135 64,248 27.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials did put some money to use this last week and we see an increase in long positions but they remain net bearish. In contrast small traders reduced their longs and upped their shorts but remain net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/10/04 297,601 356,630 (59,029) ( 9.0%) 02/17/04 296,313 371,703 (75,390) (11.3%) 02/24/04 320,425 387,255 (66,830) ( 9.4%) 03/02/04 344,805 395,112 (50,307) ( 6.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/10/04 110,480 58,428 52,052 30.8% 02/17/04 144,014 64,391 79,623 38.2% 02/24/04 129,894 63,524 66,370 34.3% 03/02/04 119,382 67,453 51,929 27.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Not much change here in Commercial traders' positions. and the same can be said for the small traders. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/10/04 44,406 40,439 3,967 4.7% 02/17/04 46,104 40,385 5,719 6.6% 02/24/04 47,266 40,452 6,814 7.8% 03/02/04 49,959 41,059 8,900 9.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 9,068 - 06/11/02 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/10/04 9,906 13,018 (3,112) (13.6%) 02/17/04 9,630 12,338 (2,708) (12.3%) 02/24/04 12,388 7,310 5,078 25.8% 03/02/04 11,605 7,128 4,477 23.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders remain asleep in the Dow futures with almost zero change and small traders are following suit. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/10/04 21,764 11,974 9,790 29.0% 02/17/04 24,451 12,907 11,544 30.9% 02/24/04 27,176 13,918 13,258 32.3% 03/02/04 27,594 14,166 13,428 32.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/10/04 6,267 14,220 (7,953) (38.8%) 02/17/04 6,768 15,623 (8,855) (39.5%) 02/24/04 6,509 14,919 (8,410) (39.2%) 03/02/04 6,898 15,874 (8,976) (39.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 03-09-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: None Closed Plays: HAL, MXO Stock Splits: PG Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= None ================================================================= Closed Plays ================================================================= Halliburton Hldg. - HAL - close: 30.70 change: -0.91 stop: 30.00 The consolidation in HAL was proceeding normally and it looked like we were ready for the next bounce from support. That is until last night's announcement of an audit into the company's Iraq contracts and that sent the stock into a tailspin this morning, with a gap down open at $30. Despite the solid rebound throughout the rest of the session, with our stop triggered, we have no choice but to drop the play tonight. And with price closing well below the bottom of that channel, we'd probably want to close the play anyways. Use any follow through on today's rebound to achieve a more favorable exit from the play. Picked on March 3rd at $31.50 Change since picked -0.80 Earnings Date 1/29/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 3.90 mln --- Maxtor Corp. - MXO - close: 9.44 change: -0.34 stop: 9.40 We certainly liked the initial breakout over the 50-dma and 200- dma just over a week ago, but were disappointed with the lack of follow-through last week. When price fell back under those moving averages, we had a big warning flag and yesterday's kiss of the 50-dma and subsequent selloff looked ominous. Sure enough it was, as the stock got hammered again today, losing 3.5% and coming within a penny of hitting our stop. With volume rising, it looks inevitable that the stop will be hit tomorrow, so we're going to jump the gun and drop MXO tonight. Should the stock manage to avoid hitting its stop, we'd suggest exiting the play on any rebound back near the $10 level. The premise of this play was the breakout over the 200-dma and that move has clearly failed. Picked on February 25th at $9.98 Change since picked -0.54 Earnings Date 1/21/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 4.20 mln --- Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 21.76 chg: -0.59 stop: 21.75 Ouch! The market-wide sell-off has not been kind to TRMB and the stock has reversed strongly this week. Shares hit our stop at 21.75 on Tuesday and closed the play for us. Volume has been above normal on the declines suggesting there may be more weakness ahead. We might reconsider bullish positions if TRMB can establish a new base at support near $20.00. Picked on March 07 at $23.44 Gain since picked: - 1.68 Earnings Date 04/27/04 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume: 375 thousand --- Total System Srvs - TSS - cls: 21.01 chg: -0.98 stop: 21.75 Double-ouch! Bears panicked on Monday when Jeffco upgraded shares of TSS to a "hold". The stock shot higher and gapped open at $22.70 immediately stopping us out of the play. Sometimes there's nothing you can do when a stock gaps like that but it can make a trader irritable when the stock completely reverses course back into your favor just as TSS did this week. We all feel emotion but successful traders learn to control it just as we try and minimize losses. Unfortunately, both proved to be a challenge with TSS this week. Picked on February 20 at $21.75 Gain since picked: - 0.74 Earnings Date 01/13/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 323 thousand ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- P&G raises earnings guidance, dividend and a 2-for-1 split About 15 minutes after Tuesday's closing bell Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) issued a press release raising their earnings guidance for the March 2004 quarter. They also raised their cash dividend of 50 cents per share, up from 45.5 cents per share. Plus, the Board of Directors approved a 2-for-1 stock split in the form of a 100% stock dividend. The stock dividend is payable on June 18th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of May 21st. The cash dividend mentioned above (50 cents) is payable on May 14th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of April 23rd on a pre-split basis. About the company: Two billion times a day, P&G brands touch the lives of people around the world. The company has one of the largest and strongest portfolios of trusted, quality brands, including Pampers., Tide., Ariel., Always., Whisper., Pantene., Bounty., Pringles., Folgers., Charmin., Downy., Lenor., Iams., Crest., Actonel., Olay. and Clairol Nice 'n Easy.. The P&G community consists of nearly 98,000 employees working in almost 80 countries worldwide. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change FO Fortune Brands Inc 72.49 +0.59 AUO AU Optronics Corp 18.64 +0.58 BXP Boston Properties Inc 52.56 +0.63 EAS Energy East Corp 24.93 +0.65 ICBC Independence Comm Bank 41.41 +0.76 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- ISTA Ista Pharmaceuticals 12.62 +1.87 CBTE Commonwealth Biotech 10.24 +6.22 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- AZN Astrazeneca 50.85 +1.39 NKE Nike Inc 76.66 +2.17 AAPL Apple Computer Inc 27.10 +1.10 SID Companhia Siderurgica 72.15 +2.85 BC Brunswick Corp 41.30 +1.01 KMRT Kmart Holding 34.30 +1.35 NDN 99 Cents Only Stores 28.34 +2.90 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- GRMN Garmin Ltd 42.36 -2.45 MTD Mettler Toledo Intl Inc 40.67 -2.08 PLT Plantronics Inc 36.35 -2.04 ESI ITT Educational Services 32.65 -2.22 FLIR FLIR Systems 37.04 -1.19 KIND Kindred Healthcare 51.66 -9.46 CQB Chiquita Brands Intl 20.75 -1.25 TXI Texas Industries 33.02 -1.63 UTEK Ultratech Inc 22.46 -1.55 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- BOH Pacific Century Fincl 45.86 -1.14 ACH Aluminum Corp China 77.10 -3.76 FDG Fording Canadian Coal 38.70 -1.57 SII Smith Intl Inc 50.94 -0.56 AFFX Affymetrix Inc 33.72 -1.51 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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