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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 03/09/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 03-09-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Trend Change!
Watch List:       AFFX, IMAX, YUM, CVTX
Market Sentiment: 2004 Has Turned Negative

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      03-09-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10456.96 - 72.50 10529.70 10424.07 1.87 bln 1215/2031
NASDAQ   1995.16 - 13.60  2011.83  1987.29 2.10 bln 1022/2171
S&P 100   560.90 -  2.77   563.77   558.88   Totals 2237/4202
S&P 500  1140.58 -  6.62  1147.32  1136.84
W5000   11147.30 - 73.30 11220.62 11147.30
SOX       486.37 +  1.10   488.04   479.65
RUS 2000  585.95 -  6.56   593.26   584.31
DJ TRANS 2834.30 - 34.40  2869.63  2826.65
VIX        16.60 +  0.81    16.74    15.56
VXO (VIX-O)16.37 +  1.04    16.89    15.93
VXN        24.70 +  0.62    24.86    24.03
Total Volume 4,318M
Total UpVol    999M
Total DnVol  3,214M
Total Adv  2569
Total Dcl  4749
52wk Highs  380
52wk Lows    16
TRIN       1.08
NAZTRIN    2.42
PUT/CALL   0.97
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Trend Change!

I have been telling you for the last six weeks to keep
buying the dip and selling the highs as long as we stayed
in our range. That range was 10450-10700 on the Dow and
2000-2100 on the Nasdaq. Boys and girls the stress moved
up a couple notches today with the Dow closing at 10456
and the Nasdaq 1997. We have not fallen off the cliff yet
but we can definitely see over the edge.

Dow Chart - Daily



Nasdaq Chart - Daily



What the heck happened to the rally? Friday the Dow hit
10643 AFTER the negative jobs report and closed positive
for the day. Monday we jumped to 10634 again and then the
bottom fell out. The Nasdaq hit 2068 on Friday, 2058 on
Monday then bottomed at 1988 today. Where did all the
buyers go?

There are multiple reasons for the dip. In no particular
order the first major cause was a deluge of new stock coming
to market. Today alone there was over $6 billion according
to TrimTabs.com. $3.8 billion of that came from GE and was
their first major stock sale since 1962. GE made this
announcement without warning before the open on Monday and
the largest market cap stock on the Dow dropped from $32.80
on Friday to 31.31 today. This was a major depression for
the Dow, not just because of the stock drop but for the
blow to sentiment by seeing the stock drop to a two month
low. Analysts thought GE was cheap already considering
their growth prospects but they were unprepared for the
$16 billion drop in market cap from the sudden decline.

Adding to the Dow decline was a -2.11 drop in Intel from
the closing levels last Thursday when they posted weaker
than expected guidance. Not only did Intel lead the
semiconductor decline but they damaged sentiment once
again when they fell below their 200 dma at 28.37. This
is a normal sell signal for funds and with volume at 92
million shares today there was obviously a lot of
institutional selling.

With GE and INTC headlining the selling on the Dow it
appears there was a lot of sympathy selling as well. UTX,
IP, DD, GM, AA, BA and IBM all dropped sharply. There was
no common cause other than the drop in bullish sentiment.
The sentiment drop began on Friday with the jobs report.

The soaring bonds exceeded expected gains and just continued
to rocket higher. They continued rising today with the yields
on the ten-year dropping to 3.71% and the lowest level since
July 2003. Analysts are scratching their heads for the reason
why. Sure the Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future but
that should not have impacted bonds so strongly. Some are
now speculating that we are seeing some asset allocation
programs on fears of a weakening recovery. The terms recession
and deflation are starting to make it back into the press.
If the campaign wars are going to depress consumer sentiment
and the recovery appears to be stalling then fears of a 2nd
recession start to creep into the investor consciousness.
Stocks have been on an extended rally since March of 2003
and with the second half of election years not know for
strong gains maybe it is time for funds take profits and
move into the safety of bonds. At least that is the current
thought process.

On the technical side a lot of the Nasdaq weakness was due
to the drop in the SOX that was led by Intel. After hitting
a high of 560 in January the SOX has been fighting a long
and protracted battle to hold its gains. This week the Intel
slide helped push it from 510 on Monday to a low of 480 today.
This -30 point drop, nearly -6%, in only two days was very
destructive for the Nasdaq as chips normally lead techs.

We are on the verge of serious technical damage across the
various indexes. The Dow is on the absolute edge of the
cliff at 10450 with only one more minor support level
left at 10400 before facing a serious drop. Today was the
first time since March-14th 2003 that the Dow failed to
trade above or at least touch its 50dma. This is very bad
for sentiment even though it only missed by 30 points. It
has been support for so long that a failure here suggests
substantial weakness. I have discussed this many times over
the last couple months. Recently I have explained that the
Dow had not dropped to the 50 but the 50 had risen to the
Dow. Whether this is material to the actual feeling in the
market is unknown. Discounting the 50dma for a moment the
Dow did pull back to very strong support at 10425-10450 and
managed to hold its ground. It is extremely critical that
this level holds with 10400 the self destruct trigger.

The Nasdaq traded within 6 points of its 100dma back on
Feb-24th and recovered to trade nearly 80 points higher.
Today that average was broken at 1999 and the index closed
at 1995. This is not only under the average but also below
the psychological 2000 level. Granted it is only a couple
points and a quick rebound tomorrow will erase the memory
of the break very quickly. The danger we face here is a
new leg down and the next dip could take us all the way to
1900. This is a critical turning point for the Nasdaq.

The major reason for the Nasdaq drop was the SOX as I
previously mentioned. The SOX broke its 100dma at 497
yesterday as well as critical support at 495. The good
news was a positive close on Tuesday after a double bottom
intraday at 480. Traders will be cheering tomorrow if the
SOX can hold that level and begin a move to higher ground.
Support levels below us would be 475 and then 450 but
nobody wants to consider that risk. Aiding the drop today
was the IBD Chip Index report which fell a couple points
to 54.5.

SOX Chart - Daily



Unfortunately the Russell has fallen and can't get up. The
Russell dropped to 586 and showed almost no rebound at the
close. The small caps are getting dumped along with big
caps and this suggests the selling is very broad based and
heavy. The 50dma is currently 583 and we came very close
today. It has been support since March and was touched
twice in February. The 50ma is way above horizontal support
at 566 and trust me, we don't want to go there.

Russell Chart - Daily


Wilshire Chart - Daily



Our index of last resort is the Wilshire-5000 and it
followed the other indexes down today. Fortunately the
horizontal support at 11076 and the 50ma at 11084 are not
only very close together but still below the close at
11147. This suggests the light selling we are seeing in
the Wilshire may not be able to push through this support.

To recap how we closed today:

Dow 10456, support 10400-10425
Nasdaq 1997, support 1999-2000 (critical)
Wilshire 11147, support 11075-11100
S&P 1140, support 1137
SOX 486, support 480
RUT 586,support 583

Clearly we are at critical levels AND at the bottom of the
range we have traded for the last two months. This is the
edge of the cliff. Whether we are either here to just enjoy
the view or investors are preparing to jump should be known
over the next couple days. Volume did spike today to the
highest level since Feb-19th and declining volume was 3:1
over advancing. 3:1 is strong but is was far from a blowout
day of 5:1 or greater. Higher volume on a down day is bad
but at this level it is only an early warning sign to be
watched for signs of an increase.

Also impacting sentiment today were things like the Nasdaq
all time high anniversary. On March-10th 2000 the Nasdaq
posted its all time closing high of 5048. Traders with
large profits on the table tend to remember milestone
events with fears of a repeat. Also coincidentally it was
announced today that the assets of all stock mutual funds
last week exceeded the highs set in that same March 2000
time frame after three years of declines. Everybody is
back in the market at or near the top. The oracle of
Omaha, Warren Buffet, also said the market is overvalued
and he expects no new purchases until stocks settle some.
Of course as a value investor it is in his best interest
to try and talk it down so he can buy cheaper. Smith
Barney lowered their end of year S&P target to 1025. It
closed today at 1140 and that would be a -10% drop. MER
suggested traders take a more defensive posture. Caution
is breaking out all over.

The biggest fear appears to be lack of jobs. TXN updated
guidance last night to the high end of prior estimates
and failed to impress buyers. This suggests we are faced
with simple profit taking on fears that the recovery may
be slowing. Add in the published survey today that Bush
is behind Kerry in the polls and suddenly the outcome of
the election is in doubt. The locked in tax cuts may not
be as locked in as investors thought and the economic
future is starting to cloud over. Interest rates may be
falling and the Fed may be stable but suddenly that may
not be the biggest cloud on the horizon. The current
rally was built on lower taxes, higher spending and the
promise that better things were to come. If the regime
making that promise is in danger of being deposed then
that promise may be in danger. While I do not think Kerry
will win it is not what I think or you think that matters.
It is fear of the unknown that matters and the market is
definitely afraid of the rising economic uncertainty.

Where do we go from here? As I showed you above we are at
critical levels in the markets. We are right at the bottom
of the trading range that has held since Dec-30th. We have
been buying this level and selling the highs for two months.
Has sentiment changed significantly enough to modify that
plan? I would say yes. I am not saying run for the sidelines
but I do recommend caution. I would not hesitate to buy the
dip if I see any indication of strength at tomorrows open.
However I would not hesitate to switch sides and short the
market on a Dow break below 10400. We are at the bottom of
the swing and the rubber band is stretched to the breaking
point. We are about to either rebound in stunning fashion
or that band is going to break and there is a serious drop
ahead of us. The signal is clear. Stay long over 10400 and
flat or short under 10400. Any continued drop from here
could be signaling that there will be no April earnings
run and the election year decline has started. I have been
projecting mid April for that event but the jobs report and
the lowered Intel guidance may have turned the tide early.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Affymetrix Inc. - AFFX - close: 33.72 change: -1.51

WHAT TO WATCH: Technology weakness spilled into other areas of
the market today, with the Biotechnology index (BTK.X) seeing a
second day of strong selling.  AFFX broke its uptrend line from
the January low and it looks like the beginning of some much-
needed profit taking and the 50-dma just under $30 looks like a
reasonable target.  Use a trigger under today's low.




---

Imax Corp. - IMAX - close: 6.33 change: -1.13

WHAT TO WATCH: They may have the best movie technology, but IMAX
didn't thrill investors today with its disappointing earnings
results and the stock got hit for a 15% decline on huge volume.
This broke a line of support at $6.60 that has been in place
since May.  Play the breakdown, either by entering on a failed
bounce under $7 or on a break below $6.20.  Target next support
near $5.50.




---

Yum! Brands Inc. - YUM - close: 38.09 change: +0.19

WHAT TO WATCH: Following last week's breakout to new all-time
highs, YUM needed to undergo a bit of consolidation before
continuing along its bullish path.  The stock has been quite
resilient so far this week, and is holding above its prior highs
near $37.  This mild pullback looks like a great chance to
establish enter the play on intraday dips near $37.00-37.50.
Target a move up to the $40-41 area.




---

CV Therapeutics Inc. - CVTX - close: 15.26 change: -0.38

WHAT TO WATCH: In contrast to the rest of the market, CVTX just
hasn't been able to make any upward progress over the past
several weeks and has been building a bearish descending wedge.
The stock broke down below the bottom of that pattern today,
pressured by the weakness in the rest of the market.  Not only
did the stock break support, but it also punctured the 50-dma and
this looks like the beginning of a significant breakdown.  Use a
trigger under $15 and target solid support at $13.50.




---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

EXTR $7.50 - Networking stocks got hit hard today, just like
Semiconductor stocks yesterday and that knocked EXTR out of its
recent consolidation and right down to key support at its 200-
dma.  A break below that average will have the stock vulnerable
to a test of its September and December lows near $6.20.  Use a
trigger under $7.30.

JNPR $23.84 - Ever since topping out over $30 in mid-January,
JNPR has been drifting lower in what looks like a bull flag
pattern.  The selling over the past two sessions is pushing the
stock near the bottom of that pattern, as well as the bottom of
the January gap.  This is a very aggressive play, where we're
looking to buy the bottom of the gap near $23 and play for a
rebound back near the $27 level.  An alternative strategy would
be to wait for a break above the top of the flag (currently $26)
and then look for a return to the $30 level.

ET $13.39 - Riding the bullish wave in the Brokerage sector, ET
had an impressive run from the $4 level to above $15 earlier this
year, but it looks like the party is over.  The stock has been
falling sharply the past two days and is poised just over key
support after breaking the 50-dma today on expanding volume.  Use
a trigger at $13 and target a drop to next support near $11.


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

2004 Has Turned Negative
- J. Brown

Uh-oh!  The NASDAQ's close under technical and psychological
support at the 2000 level looks pretty discouraging.  The two-day
sell-off has finally erased the last remaining gains for 2004 and
suggests we could see even more weakness ahead.  The 10%
correction that some market pundits have been calling for these
last several weeks (and months) would put the NASDAQ at 1937.
Considering the slow pace of the market's decline over the last
seven weeks the NASDAQ's simple 200-dma might just climb to 1937
in time to meet up with the index.  Wouldn't that be a
coincidence.

However, I'm not predicting that NASDAQ is heading toward its
200-dma just yet.  While the recent drop in the NASDAQ and the
close under 10,500 in the Dow Industrials is pretty demoralizing
for many traders there are still plenty of investors that have
been looking for the right entry point, the right pull back to
initiate new positions.  There have been plenty of analysts
predicting a pull back ahead of the Q1 earnings season and they
follow up with their expectations that strong profits will re-
ignite the rally.  We'll have to wait and see.  Short-term I
wouldn't be surprise to see the NASDAQ bounce tomorrow.  Looking
at the intraday charts the rebound in the last half hour looked
promising and any rally attempt on Wednesday could be lead by the
semiconductors.

The SOX was one of two sectors that managed to close in the green
today, thanks to positive mid-quarter updates from TXN and TQNT
on Monday night.  Looking closer at the SOX we see it found
support twice today at the 480 level and was rebounding higher
into the close.  Now maybe this move is only a short-term bounce
in what could be a new descending channel for the SOX but it can
still inspire a bounce in the NASDAQ.

Tomorrow holds the dubious honor of marking the absolute top in
the markets way back on March 10th, 2000 when the NASDAQ closed
at 5048.  Wow, what a journey it has been these last four years!



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  7416
Current     : 10456

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10579
 50-dma: 10558
200-dma:  9738



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  760
Current     : 1140

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1148
 50-dma: 1137
200-dma: 1047



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low :  946
Current     : 1437

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1167
 50-dma: 1495
200-dma: 1368


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The volatility indices all produced pretty big moves higher today
as the broader indices broke various support levels.  However,
they remain within their long-term descending patterns so we
have yet to see a change in trend.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.60 +0.81
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.37 +1.04
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 24.70 +0.62

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.97        830,649       803,092
Equity Only    0.86        637,026       545,759
OEX            0.92         44,054        40,475
QQQ            1.33         80,712       107,594


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          75.9    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    51.0    - 9     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   86.6    - 3     Bull Confirmed
S&P 500       84.4    - 1     Bull Confirmed
S&P 100       87.0    + 1     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.27
10-dma: 1.18
21-dma: 1.54
55-dma: 1.04


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     985       996
Decliners    1862      2072

New Highs     125        75
New Lows        8         4

Up Volume    299M      625M
Down Vol.    652M     1104M

Total Vol.  1815M     2077M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/02/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

In spite of a decrease in long positions by Commercial traders
they still remain relatively neutral on the large S&P contracts.
Small traders remain steadfastly bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/10/04      412,217   414,044    (1,827)   (0.2%)
02/17/04      416,148   415,278       870     0.0%
02/24/04      417,490   416,502       988     0.0%
03/02/04      411,932   418,936    (7,004)   (0.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/10/04      143,496    80,362    63,134    28.2%
02/17/04      141,533    84,227    57,306    25.3%
02/24/04      141,559    85,171    56,388    24.9%
03/02/04      148,383    84,135    64,248    27.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials did put some money to use this last week and we
see an increase in long positions but they remain net bearish.
In contrast small traders reduced their longs and upped their
shorts but remain net bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/10/04      297,601   356,630    (59,029)  ( 9.0%)
02/17/04      296,313   371,703    (75,390)  (11.3%)
02/24/04      320,425   387,255    (66,830)  ( 9.4%)
03/02/04      344,805   395,112    (50,307)  ( 6.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/10/04     110,480     58,428    52,052    30.8%
02/17/04     144,014     64,391    79,623    38.2%
02/24/04     129,894     63,524    66,370    34.3%
03/02/04     119,382     67,453    51,929    27.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Not much change here in Commercial traders' positions.
and the same can be said for the small traders.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/10/04       44,406     40,439     3,967    4.7%
02/17/04       46,104     40,385     5,719    6.6%
02/24/04       47,266     40,452     6,814    7.8%
03/02/04       49,959     41,059     8,900    9.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   9,068   - 06/11/02

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/10/04        9,906    13,018    (3,112)  (13.6%)
02/17/04        9,630    12,338    (2,708)  (12.3%)
02/24/04       12,388     7,310     5,078    25.8%
03/02/04       11,605     7,128     4,477    23.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders remain asleep in the Dow futures with
almost zero change and small traders are following suit.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/10/04       21,764    11,974    9,790      29.0%
02/17/04       24,451    12,907   11,544      30.9%
02/24/04       27,176    13,918   13,258      32.3%
03/02/04       27,594    14,166   13,428      32.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/10/04        6,267    14,220   (7,953)   (38.8%)
02/17/04        6,768    15,623   (8,855)   (39.5%)
02/24/04        6,509    14,919   (8,410)   (39.2%)
03/02/04        6,898    15,874   (8,976)   (39.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,136) - 12/16/03
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


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DISCLAIMER
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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 03-09-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments:  None
Closed Plays:      HAL, MXO
Stock Splits:      PG

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

None


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

Halliburton Hldg. - HAL - close: 30.70 change: -0.91 stop: 30.00

The consolidation in HAL was proceeding normally and it looked
like we were ready for the next bounce from support.  That is
until last night's announcement of an audit into the company's
Iraq contracts and that sent the stock into a tailspin this
morning, with a gap down open at $30.  Despite the solid rebound
throughout the rest of the session, with our stop triggered, we
have no choice but to drop the play tonight.  And with price
closing well below the bottom of that channel, we'd probably want
to close the play anyways.  Use any follow through on today's
rebound to achieve a more favorable exit from the play.

Picked on March 3rd at      $31.50
Change since picked          -0.80
Earnings Date              1/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    3.90 mln




---

Maxtor Corp. - MXO - close: 9.44 change: -0.34 stop: 9.40

We certainly liked the initial breakout over the 50-dma and 200-
dma just over a week ago, but were disappointed with the lack of
follow-through last week.  When price fell back under those
moving averages, we had a big warning flag and yesterday's kiss
of the 50-dma and subsequent selloff looked ominous.  Sure enough
it was, as the stock got hammered again today, losing 3.5% and
coming within a penny of hitting our stop.  With volume rising,
it looks inevitable that the stop will be hit tomorrow, so we're
going to jump the gun and drop MXO tonight.  Should the stock
manage to avoid hitting its stop, we'd suggest exiting the play
on any rebound back near the $10 level.  The premise of this play
was the breakout over the 200-dma and that move has clearly
failed.

Picked on February 25th at   $9.98
Change since picked          -0.54
Earnings Date              1/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    4.20 mln




---

Trimble Navigation - TRMB - cls: 21.76 chg: -0.59 stop: 21.75

Ouch!  The market-wide sell-off has not been kind to TRMB and the
stock has reversed strongly this week.  Shares hit our stop at
21.75 on Tuesday and closed the play for us.  Volume has been
above normal on the declines suggesting there may be more
weakness ahead.  We might reconsider bullish positions if TRMB
can establish a new base at support near $20.00.

Picked on March 07 at $23.44
Gain since picked:    - 1.68
Earnings Date       04/27/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    375 thousand



---

Total System Srvs - TSS - cls: 21.01 chg: -0.98 stop: 21.75

Double-ouch!  Bears panicked on Monday when Jeffco upgraded
shares of TSS to a "hold".  The stock shot higher and gapped open
at $22.70 immediately stopping us out of the play.  Sometimes
there's nothing you can do when a stock gaps like that but it can
make a trader irritable when the stock completely reverses course
back into your favor just as TSS did this week.  We all feel
emotion but successful traders learn to control it just as we try
and minimize losses.  Unfortunately, both proved to be a
challenge with TSS this week.

Picked on February 20 at $21.75
Gain since picked:       - 0.74
Earnings Date          01/13/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       323 thousand




=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------

P&G raises earnings guidance, dividend and a 2-for-1 split


About 15 minutes after Tuesday's closing bell Procter & Gamble
(NYSE:PG) issued a press release raising their earnings guidance
for the March 2004 quarter.  They also raised their cash dividend
of 50 cents per share, up from 45.5 cents per share.  Plus, the
Board of Directors approved a 2-for-1 stock split in the form of a
100% stock dividend.

The stock dividend is payable on June 18th, 2004 to shareholders
on record as of May 21st.  The cash dividend mentioned above (50
cents) is payable on May 14th, 2004 to shareholders on record as
of April 23rd on a pre-split basis.

About the company:
Two billion times a day, P&G brands touch the lives of people
around the world. The company has one of the largest and strongest
portfolios of trusted, quality brands, including Pampers., Tide.,
Ariel., Always., Whisper., Pantene., Bounty., Pringles., Folgers.,
Charmin., Downy., Lenor., Iams., Crest., Actonel., Olay. and
Clairol Nice 'n Easy.. The P&G community consists of nearly 98,000
employees working in almost 80 countries worldwide.
 (Source: Company Press Release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FO      Fortune Brands Inc         72.49     +0.59
AUO     AU Optronics Corp          18.64     +0.58
BXP     Boston Properties Inc      52.56     +0.63
EAS     Energy East Corp           24.93     +0.65
ICBC    Independence Comm Bank     41.41     +0.76

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ISTA    Ista Pharmaceuticals       12.62     +1.87
CBTE    Commonwealth Biotech       10.24     +6.22

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

AZN     Astrazeneca                50.85     +1.39
NKE     Nike Inc                   76.66     +2.17
AAPL    Apple Computer Inc         27.10     +1.10
SID     Companhia Siderurgica      72.15     +2.85
BC      Brunswick Corp             41.30     +1.01
KMRT    Kmart Holding              34.30     +1.35
NDN     99 Cents Only Stores       28.34     +2.90

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

GRMN    Garmin Ltd                 42.36     -2.45
MTD     Mettler Toledo Intl Inc    40.67     -2.08
PLT     Plantronics Inc            36.35     -2.04
ESI     ITT Educational Services   32.65     -2.22
FLIR    FLIR Systems               37.04     -1.19
KIND    Kindred Healthcare         51.66     -9.46
CQB     Chiquita Brands Intl       20.75     -1.25
TXI     Texas Industries           33.02     -1.63
UTEK    Ultratech Inc              22.46     -1.55

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

BOH     Pacific Century Fincl      45.86     -1.14
ACH     Aluminum Corp China        77.10     -3.76
FDG     Fording Canadian Coal      38.70     -1.57
SII     Smith Intl Inc             50.94     -0.56
AFFX    Affymetrix Inc             33.72     -1.51


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