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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 03/14/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-14-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       What a Week!
Market Sentiment:  Speed Bump or a Rebound?
Watch List:        ISLE, MRVL, ACLS, URBN

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 03-12        WE 03-05        WE 02-27        WE 02-20
DOW    10240.08 -355.47 10595.5 + 11.63 10583.9 - 35.11 -  8.82
Nasdaq  1984.73 - 62.90 2047.63 + 17.81 2029.82 -  8.11 - 15.63
S&P-100  549.92 - 18.53  568.45 +  3.91  564.54 -  0.33 -  1.05
S&P-500 1120.57 - 36.29 1156.86 + 11.91 1144.95 +  0.84 -  1.70
W5000  10968.18 -346.24 11314.4 +141.50 11172.9 + 29.34 - 30.42
SOX      485.10 - 19.15  504.25 +  1.99  502.26 -  7.99 -  0.80
RUT      582.84 - 16.70  599.54 + 13.98  585.56 +  5.67 -  5.25
TRAN    2863.09 - 29.98 2893.07 -  9.12 2902.19 + 10.01 - 24.38
VIX       18.30 +  3.82   14.48 -  0.09   14.57 -  1.47 +  0.46
VXO       18.72 +  3.92   14.80 +  0.04   14.76 -  1.49 +  0.62
VXN       25.30 +  3.22   22.08 -  0.79   22.87 -  1.25 -  0.02
TRIN       0.44            1.40            1.26            1.29
Put/Call   1.05            0.79            0.73            0.86
WE = week ending
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

What a Week!
by Jim Brown

Last Sunday we were jubilant that the Dow managed to close
up on Friday and right at 10600 after the disappointing Jobs
report. This Sunday we are just thankful we did not break Dow
10000 again. Definitely not the kind of week we have seen in
2004. Actually it has been 19 months since we have seen a
week this bad.

Dow Chart - Daily


Dow Chart - 5 min


Nasdaq Chart - Daily




The lack of any materially negative economic reports and the
lack of any new terrorist news resulted in a strong rebound
from grossly oversold conditions. We will need a couple more
days of trading to find out if this was the end of the
correction or just an oversold bounce but nobody was heard
complaining on Friday.

The economics we ignored included the Business Inventories
that rose only +0.1% and less than estimates of +0.3%. This
was widely expected to miss the estimates after the weak
Wholesale Trade report. The inventory to sales ratio remained
at record lows at 1.33 and it is only a matter of time before
inventories have to be replenished. Growth in most components
slowed with only Manufacturers posting a minor gain. Sales
were still increasing only at a slower rate. Should inventory
levels not pickup quickly the GDP for Q1 could see a sizeable
drop.

The Current Account balance increased due to strong income
flows into the US during the 4Q. This was surprising and
when taken as a percentage of GDP it has shows gains, a
decrease in the outstanding liability, for three quarters.
Both imports and exports improved during the quarter. No
complaints here.

The most surprising report was the Consumer Sentiment which
was inline with estimates at 94.1 and only slightly off the
February levels. Considering the falling sentiment/confidence
levels for all of February a flat report showing a firming
of sentiment was surprising. This may be the last positive
sentiment report for several weeks. The polling was done
for this before the Intel guidance, weak Jobs report, the
terrorist attack in Spain and the stock market correction.
Once consumers are polled after those events there could
be a significant change. In Friday's report the present
conditions component was 105.7 and up from 103.6 in February.
This was probably a result of the strong market and the hype
over strong jobs expectations two weeks ago. The expectations
component fell to 86.6 from 88.5 which was probably related
to the increased economy bashing in the presidential campaign.
The constant reference to jobs being lost from outsourcing
probably weighed on workers minds. As the quarter progresses
tax refunds and bonuses should help offset some of the
negatives.

The rebound on Friday sent many traders home breathing easier.
The Dow rebounded +111 points and the Nasdaq +41. Nice gains
but if you looked at the header to this article you noticed
some very bearish numbers for the week. The Dow lost -355
and the Nasdaq -63 and that is after the gains from Friday.
Needless to say it was a very bad week but in reality it
was just normal. I know it was painful to everyone who was
long but we were due for a drop. It had been 19 months since
we had seen a -5% correction and there was plenty of cash
waiting on the sidelines for an entry point.

I am going to review both the potential for a continued
rebound and a continued drop today and some of the reasons
the drop occurred. Despite our personal biases we always
need to be aware of things happening in the market. First
the market has a tendency to celebrate anniversaries of
turning points with another turning point. It seems that
prior painful memories tend to resurface in trader's
subconscious minds. Actually even pleasant memories tend
to haunt the markets.

For instance, March 12th-2003 was the turning point in the
markets and marked the low for all of 2003. We have literally
moved almost straight up since that day. March 10th-2000 was
the absolute high point for the Nasdaq at 5132. March-11th
2002 was also the high for all of 2002. I could stop there
and rest my case for a potential market anniversary event
in March of 2004 but it would have been pure speculation and
posses no technical justification. To apply justification we
add the historical fact based on research done by Ned Davis
that cyclical bull markets tend to last about 12-15 months
and tend to rebound about 50% from the bear market lows.
This may or may not be a cyclical bull market but either
way the tendency to correct at those levels even if only
temporary remains the same. Obviously time frames are always
vague depending on sentiment, earnings, interest rates,
current events, etc. The most critical factor is the +50%
gain off the lows. From the October low at 768 and the March
low at 788 I was using the +50% target for my cautions of a
January dip at 1175. A +50% gain from each low would have
produced 1152-1182 as a target. I settled on 1175 which was
the double top resistance high in March-2002. Notice how
those March dates continue to appear? We reached 1155 in
January. It took six weeks from the Jan-26th 1155 high to
push only +8 points higher to the 1163 high on March-5th.
In retrospect I missed the eventual high by 12 points. The
extreme bullish sentiment in January simply refused to
capitulate but that is not the focus of this commentary.
The problem as I see it today is where are we in the grand
scheme of things. Are we going back up or back down?

SPX Chart - Weekly




The argument for a rebound to the highs is based on earnings,
interest rates and the current economic recovery. I heard
again on Friday that First Call is now expecting earnings
for the first quarter to be in the +15% to +17% range. Their
current hard estimate is +14.9% and rising. This would tend
to suggest stocks should continue to go up as long as
earnings continue to climb. The Fed is on hold and mortgage
interest rates are plunging to lows not seen since last year.
This is good for home and auto sales and could bring another
round of refinancing and that money eventually finds its
way into the economy. Tax checks are starting to flow and
the economy is continuing to recover, maybe. All I need to
do is break into a rendition of "Happy days are here again"
to solidify this warm fuzzy feeling.

However, and you knew there was a however, we all know the
market discounts future events 6-9 months out. Stock prices
today are based on those expectations of Oct-Dec conditions.
If we look into the future we see much stronger comparisons
for earnings. Remember the blowout Q3 and Q4 in 2003? Unless
this recovery catches fire and I mean roaring fire really
quick the earnings comparisons for Q3 and Q4 for this year
are going to start shrinking. Instead of +15% growth it
could drop to single digits and that would really sour
sentiment.

We are also reaching the point where the dollar cannot
continue to go down. Eventually the strong dollar will begin
to reassert itself and that will hurt earnings. For instance
over half of Oracle's growth in database sales for last qtr
was from gains in currency translation. License revenue
grew +13% and currency gains accounted for +7% of the total
revenue and +8% of the new software growth. What will happen
when the dollar begins to strengthen again? Weaker earnings
for most multinational companies.

We also have the already questionable recovery. Almost
every economic report continues to show growth but the
pace of growth continues to slow. This is troubling quite
a few analysts. The lack of job creation is also a problem.
I know it is a lagging indicator. I got the memo. But, even
lagging indicators eventually have to confirm and jobs are
the weakest of our current indicators. The current debate
on outsourcing is bringing the problem more to the forefront
than ever before. Are we in a growing recovery or has it
already peaked?

The massive explosion in the bond market over the last week
and the drop in yields was far in excess of what should
have been expected from the weak jobs report. There is a
real undercurrent in the analyst community that suggests
there are more problems in the system than anyone expected.
There are moves underway to find the change in the current
environment that is consuming jobs. The fear is that what
worked before may not be working now and nobody knows why.
The inordinate rise in bonds has spooked economists,
politicians and stock and currency traders alike. Can you
have too much of a good thing? Evidently you can if nobody
knows why it is happening.

The terrorist attack in Spain and the bogus claim of
responsibility by the Al Qaeda cell may have had a serious
impact on our already spooked markets but that has passed.
The terror war may eventually return to our soil but the
real war that will impact our markets is the political one.
The battle will be waged on the airwaves and the outcome is
far from clear. The surveys made public early last week may
have had more impact on the markets than people realize.
Projections that Bush had lost his commanding lead and was
running a dead heat or possibly even behind Kerry threw
institutions into a tizzy. The potential for a change in
power and a repeal of the tax incentives caused a sudden
rethinking of strategy. The previously unthinkable after
Bush had soared to enormous satisfaction ratings had now
become possible.

Historically the fourth year of a presidential term is a
positive year for the markets. The party in power uses
every means at their disposal to remain in power. That
includes tax cuts, social security increases, big jumps
in spending including doling out pork projects like manna
from heaven. Also, historically the first two years of
a second term have spawned many of the worst bear markets
on record. Specifically 1929, 1937, 1957, 1969, 1973, 1977
and 1981. You can't give away the candy store in an election
year without paying for it eventually. Taxes get raised,
budgets cut and all the unpopular work gets done. During
a second term the president does not have to worry about
getting himself reelected but tries to clean up conditions
quickly so his party's successor has a chance of victory.

So where does all this confusing and conflicting information
leave us? Are we going back up or back down? Wouldn't we
all like to know? Unfortunately there is no clear answer.
The market "should" rebound into the April earnings cycle
because the earnings growth is still expanding. It "should"
begin to decline into the summer as the earnings comparisons
become harder and the election mud slinging heats up. "Sell
in May and go away" has been a market maxim since before I
was born. This puts investors on the sideline during the
summer doldrums and safe from any inadvertent market moving
campaign comments. When politicians are running for office
nothing is safe. Drug companies could be hit by controls.
Energy companies, health care services, defense, no one
is safe from attack if it will score more votes.

The problem would be easier to solve if the recovery would
simply catch fire. A roaring economy covers many sins. The
deficit would slow, taxes would flow, employment would rise
and workers would consume goods. Unfortunately the recovery
is still missing in action on many fronts. We saw what $365B
in tax rebates and the lowest mortgage rates in 45 years
did for the economy in Q3-2003 but nobody expects any more
miracles in 2004.

I think all of this leaves us with a negative bias after
April unless we get a major economic surprise. That means
any rebound next week may only be temporary. According to
the Stock Traders Almanac next week is bullish with a
triple witching options expiration on Friday. That is
great news because we need to rebuild trader confidence
if we are going to have any April earnings run. Our mid
quarter update cycle is nearly over and next week will
begin the warning cycle. So far there have been very few
early confessions and hopefully this trend will continue.

Technically the Dow has resistance at 10300, 10450 and
much stronger resistance at 10600. The 10600 level was
the center of the recent trading range and it is highly
doubtful we will exceed that level any time soon in our
weakened condition. That means the Dow could be forced
to define a new trading range with 10500-10600 on the
upside and 10000 on the downside. Right now we are still
oversold despite the +111 point gain and we are probably
going to move higher next week. How high is a matter of
debate.

Where the Dow just suddenly fell out of its range the
Nasdaq has been trending down since late January. This
suggests a different type of problem. The Dow contains
materials stocks, financials, consumer cyclicals, techs
and manufacturing stocks. All solid blue chip companies
and places where funds can park money in times of
uncertainty. The Nasdaq has a different problem. In
times of uncertainty traders tend to flee highly volatile
tech stocks and move to safety. This is why the Nasdaq
typically leads any drop and has deeper corrections. The
percentage drop from the highs for the year on the Nasdaq
is twice the Dow percentage and right at -10%.

The Nasdaq has resistance at 2000, which is also the
100dma and again at 2030 to 2060. With the downtrend in
progress since Jan-27th it is going to be tough to get
back over 2050. That level was the price magnet for the
two weeks prior to the current drop and is now strong
resistance. The Nasdaq also has strong support at 1900
and heavy congestion between 1900 and 2000. This suggests
the Nasdaq could also be locked into a new range from
1900-2050.

I know this commentary probably angered some readers and
bored others but it is the kind of fact summary that we
all need to consider. I would like to think we will reach
new highs before May and nothing would please me more.
Unfortunately the current market environment is not
suggesting that will happen.

The drop this week was not unreasonable in its depth as
all indexes dropped approx -3.5%. Just a normal correction
and one that should be over. What shocked investors was
the dramatic way it dropped. This also suggests that
investors are worried. Instead of a calm decline the
drop was sudden and sharp with signs of panic.

For me the strongest indication of strength on Friday
came from the Russell. The little index that thought it
could roared back up the hill and posted a +14 point,
+2.47% gain. This was a monstrous move when put into
perspective. The Dow gained +1.10%, Wilshire +1.35%
and Nasdaq +2.10%. The Russell was the motivating factor
behind the Nasdaq gain. The closing Russell sprint added
+5 points to the Nasdaq in the last 8 min of trading. The
Russell was the ONLY index to not break its bullish uptrend
support for the week.

Russell-2000 Chart - Daily



The rebound on Friday came on very strong internals with
up volume 6:1 over down volume and advancers 5:2 over
decliners. Traders would have been cheering at the close
were it not for the very low volume of only 3.7B shares.
This is not what builds investor confidence. The drop on
Thursday was on very strong volume of over 5B shares and
4:1 down volume to up. Everything was in place for the
rebound but that vital volume component. My theory is
weekend related. With the renewed terror risk I feel
investors were willing to wait until Monday to avoid
weekend event risk. That makes Monday a critical day
for the bulls. We must rally on strong volume and strong
internals to rebuild confidence in the market.

That may be a tall order for the Dow with resistance just
overhead at 10300. It fought 10225 all day and was only
able to break back above its 100dma at that level in the
last ten minutes of trading as shorts covered into the
close. The Nasdaq has about 20 points of free space
before running into resistance at 2000 and only if it
can open in positive territory and over resistance at
1980. We could win back a lot of traders with a blast
out of the gate and a push back to 10350/2000 or higher
on Monday. Conversely if we are unable to push higher
then Friday will be seen as a simple oversold relief
rally and the overhead pressure will begin to build
again.

The economic reports on Monday are neutral and should
provide bullish confirmation with the Housing Index and
Industrial Production. Marginally weak numbers should
not be seen as negative to the market. The NY Empire
State Manufacturing Survey has been on a steady uptrend
and one of the few reports consistently gaining strength.
The February number was a record high so any pullback
will just be seen as a pause and any higher number is a
new record. Not much risk there.

Next week is going to be critical to the market for the
rest of the quarter and the base for any April earnings
run. We must have a couple of good days beginning with
Monday or traders will begin rethinking their plans with
many electing to take profits and leave early for the
summer. Normal profit taking does not cause alarm but
extreme uncertainty does. With our uncertainty quotient
growing daily we need a booster shot of confidence to
get us over the hump. The inoculations will begin at
the bell on Monday.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Speed Bump or a Rebound?
 - J. Brown

Ouch!  After last week the bulls are probably thinking they need
a vacation.  After all they've been running for almost a year
straight - granted they've grown a little tired the last few
weeks.  It was encouraging to see the markets do some heavy
lifting on Friday but the volume numbers were a little
disappointing.  Sharp, brief sell-offs are common characteristics
of a bull market correction and there are plenty of investors who
have been waiting on the sidelines to jump in.  The question now
is whether or not the correction is over and Friday's rally is a
new short-term bottom?  Or is Friday just an oversold bounce in
what could be a new change in the trend (think of it as a speed
bump on the way down).

Historically the week of triple-witching options expiration in
March tends to be a bullish one.  Considering the market's still
oversold condition from last week's sell-off a continuation of
the bounce is probably a good bet.  Unfortunately, that bounce
may be muted on Monday and Tuesday morning as we wait for the
FOMC announcement at Tuesday's meeting.  No one expects Alan & Co
to move interest rates but if and how they change the wording of
their statement will be major news for the next three sessions.

Next week also brings a number of economic reports but
potentially overshadowing them is the onset of the corporate
confession cycle or earnings warning season.  Yet this time we
might actually see a bullish affect.  We've already heard three
or four corporations issue positive pre-announcements last week.
It would be great to hear more positive upside guidance, which
could jump start an early earnings run for the April reporting
season.  At least that's what my optimistic side is looking for.

We will hear from a number of the broker-dealers this week who
report earnings head of the crowd.  Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns
and Morgan Stanley will all announce and odds are they'll crush
expectations again.  This should have a positive influence on
investor sentiment.  Speaking of investor sentiment we noticed
some pretty big moves in the COT data (look below).  Commercial
traders or institutional traders have been slowly turning bullish
on the NASDAQ 100 for weeks but this latest report hit extremes
not seen since June 2002.  This is good news because the
commercial traders are normally right while the small trader
tends to be wrong.  Also noteworthy is the new bearish extremes
in the Dow Jones futures by the small traders.  Using the same
logic this is a contrarian bullish indicator suggesting a bullish
move for the Dow.  Unfortunately, this COT report is from March
9th and before the last two sessions of the steep sell-off and
before the Thursday terrorist bombings in Spain.  I would
certainly wait to see how these numbers change in next week's
report before adding too much weight to them but they do add a
little bit of encouragement for the bulls.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  7416
Current     : 10241

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10469
 50-dma: 10547
200-dma:  9760



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  760
Current     : 1120

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1140
 50-dma: 1137
200-dma: 1050



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low :  946
Current     : 1431

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1451
 50-dma: 1492
200-dma: 1372


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Volatility indices dropped strongly on Friday given the broad-
based bounce but this week's market decline produced a surge
in volatility that broke the previous multi-month trends.  While
I'd expect volatility to slowly drift lower it may not return
toward its previous lows very soon.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 18.30 -2.37
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 18.72 -2.99
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 25.30 -1.28

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.05        758,249       795,143
Equity Only    0.82        563,698       463,767
OEX            1.31         54,825        71,831
QQQ            2.54         57,289       145,699


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.5    + 0     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    43.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       79.4    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       84.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.93
10-dma: 1.49
21-dma: 1.29
55-dma: 1.08


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2114      2327
Decliners     732       736

New Highs      83        74
New Lows       17        14

Up Volume   1454M     1376M
Down Vol.    207M      287M

Total Vol.  1679M     1680M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/09/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercial traders are committing new money to both long
and short positions but they are turning more and more
bearish in the large S&P contracts.  Small traders are
holding relatively steady.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/17/04      416,148   415,278       870     0.0%
02/24/04      417,490   416,502       988     0.0%
03/02/04      411,932   418,936    (7,004)   (0.1%)
03/09/04      418,394   433,237   (14,843)   (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/17/04      141,533    84,227    57,306    25.3%
02/24/04      141,559    85,171    56,388    24.9%
03/02/04      148,383    84,135    64,248    27.6%
03/09/04      155,947    88,317    67,630    27.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Wow!  We really saw some money come into the e-mini's
this week.  Commercial traders added nearly 90K new long
contracts and more than 90K new short contracts.  They
remain net bearish on the S&P.  Small traders also added
more to their positions but remain net bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/17/04      296,313   371,703    (75,390)  (11.3%)
02/24/04      320,425   387,255    (66,830)  ( 9.4%)
03/02/04      344,805   395,112    (50,307)  ( 6.8%)
03/09/04      431,623   485,268    (53,645)  ( 5.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/17/04     144,014     64,391    79,623    38.2%
02/24/04     129,894     63,524    66,370    34.3%
03/02/04     119,382     67,453    51,929    27.8%
03/09/04     135,233     76,558    58,675    27.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders have slowly been turning more and more
bullish on the NASDAQ 100 over the last few weeks.  As of
March 9th, they hit new extremes surpassing they're last
bullish peak dating back to June 11th, 2002.  Unfortunately,
this reading is before the steep Wednesday-Thursday sell-off
this week and before the Thursday morning terror attack in
Spain.  We'll have to wait until next week to see how
commercial traders, or "smart money", reacts to the last
few sessions.  Small traders have also turned more bullish
but they're not hitting extreme readings.



Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/17/04       46,104     40,385     5,719    6.6%
02/24/04       47,266     40,452     6,814    7.8%
03/02/04       49,959     41,059     8,900    9.8%
03/09/04       57,368     46,082    11,286   10.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  11,286   - 03/12/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/17/04        9,630    12,338    (2,708)  (12.3%)
02/24/04       12,388     7,310     5,078    25.8%
03/02/04       11,605     7,128     4,477    23.9%
03/09/04       15,533     8,070     7,463    31.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders or institutions have been slowly growing
more and more bullish on the Dow over the last few weeks.
Again, this latest data is before the Wednesday-Thursday
sell-off and the Thursday terror event but it is encouraging.
In contrast small traders have turned more bearish and actually
hit a new extreme in their bearishness, surpassing last
December's readings.  This is a contrarian bullish indicator
since small traders tend to be wrong.  Yet I would hesitate
to draw too many conclusions until we see next week's data
and investor reaction to the terrorist attacks.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/17/04       24,451    12,907   11,544      30.9%
02/24/04       27,176    13,918   13,258      32.3%
03/02/04       27,594    14,166   13,428      32.2%
03/09/04       26,867    12,845   14,022      35.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/17/04        6,768    15,623   (8,855)   (39.5%)
02/24/04        6,509    14,919   (8,410)   (39.2%)
03/02/04        6,898    15,874   (8,976)   (39.4%)
03/09/04        7,053    19,159  (12,106)   (46.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Isle of Capris Casinos - ISLE - close: 24.27 change: +1.27

WHAT TO WATCH: Normally we're pretty hesitant to chase a one-day
move of more than 5% but the gambling stocks have been
exceptionally strong in this market.  The recent consolidation in
ISLE looks like a potential bull flag pattern.  We'd consider new
positions with the close over $24.00 but more conservative
traders looking for a little more confirmation can wait or a move
to a new high at $24.45.  Check out its P&F chart.  ISLE just
produced a fresh triple-top breakout buy signal.




---

Marvell Technologies - MRVL - close: 41.83 change: +1.65

WHAT TO WATCH: If you have any faith in the chip rebound late
this week check out shares of MRVL.  This semiconductor stock has
demonstrated a lot more relative strength than many of its peers.
The pull back to the $40 level of support, bolstered by the 200-
dma, looks like an entry point.  We would target a move back
toward the upper end of its range near $46.00.




---

Axcelis Technologies - ACLS - close: 10.39 change: +0.50

WHAT TO WATCH: ACLS is another semiconductor that is bouncing
from its technical support at the simple 200-dma as well as
horizontal price support near $9.50.  Its short-term technicals
like the RSI and stochastic oscillators look pretty tempting.
Meanwhile stock has pulled back to support on its P&F chart as
well.  Even if this is a trend change in ACLS the rebound could
still take it back toward the $12.00 level.




---

Urban Outfitters - URBN - close: 45.80 change: +2.34

WHAT TO WATCH: Did you see a market correction this week?
Investors in URBN certainly didn't.  The stock hardly moved at
all in anticipation of its Thursday earnings report.  The company
beat estimate by 2 cents on revenues that rose almost 50% over
the same period a year ago.  The stock broke out above resistance
at $45.00 on Friday, which happens to be a new all-time high.
This could be a candidate for a quick run to $50.00.





=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-14-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bearish Play Updates:  CCMP, NVLS, VRTS


Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     R
  Bullish Play Updates:  SPF, TYC
  Bearish Play Updates:  BBY


High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     HGSI


Stock Splits
  Announcements:


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================


============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Cabot Microelec. - CCMP - close: 42.24 change: +1.74 stop: 44.00

After a painful week of losses, the Semiconductor index (SOX.X)
finally found its footing and put in a respectable rebound from
critical support at $475.  Even laggard CCMP managed to
participate in the rebound, and owing to its more oversold
condition tacked on more than 4% on Friday on solid volume.  As
noted when we began coverage on Wednesday, CCMP was overdue for
an oversold rebound and odds were good we'd get it soon after the
breakdown under the $42 support level.  Friday's recovery brought
the stock right back into the $42-43 area, which should now serve
as resistance.  That's why we listed a failed rebound in that
area as our preferred entry strategy and now we'll want to watch
for the rollover early next week to pull the trigger.  The risk
is that with daily Stochastics trying to turn up from oversold
territory, CCMP could rebound to the top of its range without
producing the rollover we're looking for.  Our stop at $44 is
above all the short-term moving averages, and if hit will tell us
unequivocally that last week's breakdown was nothing more than a
bear trap.  More conservative traders may want to now wait for a
breakdown under last week's lows before entering the play.  Watch
for direction from the SOX, which should now find stiff
resistance in the $495-500 area.

Picked on March 10th at     $40.85
Change since picked          +1.39
Earnings Date              1/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       818 K




---

Novellus Systems - NVLS - close: 31.01 change: +0.85 stop: 34.00

After a rough week, the bulls were confronted with the absolute
necessity of producing a bounce in the Semiconductor index
(SOX.X) on Friday, as it began the day resting on key support at
$475.  They didn't miss the opportunity and the SOX gained better
than 2% on the day, taking the index off of that critical support
level.  Our NVLS play has really been rather disappointing, as
the weakness in the SOX was unable to deliver the desired
breakdown below the $30 level.  The stock tested that level on
Thursday, but when it held, we had a good indication that the
week would end with a bounce.  The short-term declining trend is
still intact, so our attention now turns to looking for a failed
rally below $32 resistance (right at the 20-dma) as the next
solid entry into the play.  More conservative traders will want
to wait for the $30 level to fail as support before playing.
We're maintaining our stop at $34, which is just over the last
relative high.

Picked on March 3rd at      $31.15
Change since picked          -0.14
Earnings Date              1/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    6.57 mln




---

Veritas Software -VRTS - close: 31.01 change: +1.03 stop: 32.50

The action in VRTS last week was quite disappointing, with the
stock clinging to support at $30 and not even able to challenge
the intraday low from the prior week.  Friday's 3.4% bounce
leaves us with the distinct possibility that the stock is in the
process of building a bottom near $30 and if so, we'll have a
failed play on our hands.  Failed bounces below the 20-dma
($31.33) have been good for bearish entries in recent weeks, and
that's still where we'd suggest aggressive traders step into the
play.  But with the potential for a stronger bounce, the more
prudent approach would appear to be to wait for a breakdown under
the early March low of $29.43 before playing.  Once that
breakdown occurs, look for next support near $27.  We're
maintaining our stop at $32.50, just over the top of the trading
range since late February.

Picked on February 29th at  $30.55
Change since picked          +0.46
Earnings Date              1/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    6.07 mln





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Ryder Systems - R - close: 37.78 change: +0.93 stop: 36.49

Company Description:
Ryder is a Fortune 500 company providing leading-edge
transportation, logistics and supply chain management solutions
worldwide. Ryder's stock is a component of the Dow Jones
Transportation Average and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The Dow Jones Transport index has been a major culprit in the
market's weakness over the last several weeks.  Yet when the
group bounced strongly on Friday we started looking for a rebound
candidate.  Fortunately, we didn't have to look far because we've
had our eye on Ryder (R) for a while now.  The stock has been
consolidating under resistance at the $38.00 level for weeks and
it looks ready to breakout.

Doing a little digging we noticed that R's last earnings report
was a blowout, beating estimates by 8 cents with net income for
the December quarter hitting 64 cents a share on revenues above
consensus estimates.  At that February 5th report the company
raised its Q1 earnings guidance to 36-39 cents a share, above the
average estimate of 36 cents.  A month later R raised estimates
again after completing its acquisition of privately held Ruan
Leasing Company for $145 million.  The deal is expected to add
$125 million in revenue to 2004.  Ryder raised its earnings
guidance for the year from $2.46-2.56 to $2.52-2.64 per share.

Technically Ryder's short-term oscillators like the RSI and
stochastics are bullish.  Its MACD is bullish too but the recent
weakness last week flatten it out a bit.  Ryder's P&F chart
points to a $42 price target and we think that's a good initial
target.  However, we're not going to open the play until Ryder
trades through our TRIGGER of $38.05.  Once we're triggered we'll
use a stop loss at $36.49.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on March 14 at $xx.xx <-- see Trigger
Gain since picked:    + 0.00
Earnings Date       02/05/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    441 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Standard Pacific - SPF - cls: 56.60 chg: +1.37 stop: 54.00

Did you take it?  In our last update we suggested that the next
entry point for bullish positions was a dip to the $55 level.
SPF almost traded to $54.50 on Thursday before rebounding.  The
homebuilding sector has weathered the recent market downturn very
well.  Many stocks in the group were only allowed to pull back to
minor support before traders jumped in to buy the dip.
Considering the low interest/mortgage rates this should be a
strong home buying season and investors are eager to own these
stocks.  We are still targeting a move to $59.50 and plan to exit
there on an intraday basis.  Our stop loss remains at $54.00.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on February 29 at $52.31
Gain since picked:       + 4.29
Earnings Date          02/04/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       468 thousand



---

Tyco International - TYC - close: 28.50 change: +0.67 stop: 27.25

With TYC coming to rest up against the top of its rising channel
a week ago, we were looking for a pullback to provide for fresh
entries and last week's broad market weakness was the perfect
catalyst to deliver it.  The stock fell throughout the week,
bottoming on Thursday at $27.69, ending just below both the 50-
dma ($28.07) and the midline of the rising channel.  The bulls
stepped into the breech on Friday though, pushing TYC back over
those dual measures of support and with the daily Stochastics
hinting at a bullish reversal, it looks like that dip provided
the entry we were looking for.  Traders looking for more strength
before playing will want to wait for a rally back through the 20-
dma ($28.74) before entering.  Despite the slight violation late
last week, TYC continues to observe the top half of the ascending
channel as support and resistance and should continue to do so.
Look for this next rally leg to carry price up towards the top of
the channel, now at $30.50.  When that level is reached,
harvesting gains is the prudent course of action, in preparation
for repeating the process on the next pullback to the middle of
the channel.

Picked on February 29th at  $28.57
Change since picked          -0.07
Earnings Date              2/03/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    9.03 mln





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Best Buy Company - BBY - close: 49.30 change: +2.05 stop: 52.75

Everything was looking good for the BBY bears on Thursday, as the
stock had clearly broken key support at $48 and had done so on
volume well above the ADV.  But Friday's more than 4% bounce
calls into question whether the breakdown was the real deal or if
it was a bear trap.  While not as strong as on the breakdown
earlier in the week, Friday's rebound did come on strong volume,
adding to our hesitation.  When we initiated coverage on BBY, we
stated our expectation that the optimal entry would come on a
failed bounce after our $48 trigger was activated.  That trigger
was hit on Thursday's drop to the $47.25 level and now the best
odds for new entries will come on a rollover in the vicinity of
the 200-dma ($50.50).  Resistance should now be strong at former
support in the $51 area, reinforced by the confluence of moving
averages just over $52.  Traders that would prefer to enter on
weakness will need to see price break Thursday's $47.25 low
before entering.  Maintain stops at $52.75.

Picked on March 10th at     $48.50
Change since picked          +0.80
Earnings Date              1/31/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    3.81 mln





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - cls: 12.34 chng: +0.04 stop: 13.50

Company Description:
Possessing one of the largest human and microbial genetic
databases, HGSI licenses its database of knowledge to
pharmaceutical heavyweights like GlaxoSmithKline and Merck.
Management has chosen to forgo the race to decode the entire
human genome, and has instead focused on finding and patenting
genes involved in developing gene-based therapeutics.  Its four
compounds currently in clinical trials are intended to limit the
toxic effects of chemotherapy, promote the repair of damaged
cells, stimulate antibody production, and spur regrowth of blood
vessels.

Why we like it:
Just like the rest of the market, HGSI made a stellar bullish
move from March through early June of last year.  But that's
where the similarity to the rest of the market ends.  Since then,
the stock has been building a very bearish price pattern, with a
series of lower highs and horizontal support near $12.  Showing
the weakening of the trend, the stock hasn't been able to
approach the descending trendline connecting the June, September
and January highs for nearly 2 months and heavy selling volume
all last week suggests that a major breakdown is brewing.  The
PnF chart has been bearish since last November, and is still
showing a bearish price target of $7.  That certainly gives us
enough downside to work with, but we're not going to be so
aggressive as to expect that level to be reached over the near
term.

There's another factor in favor of the bears, as the stock
appears to be building a complex Head & Shoulders top formation,
with the neckline just barely above the $12 support level.  With
the head just below $15 and the neckline at $12, that gives us a
downside target of $12-3 or $9.  Looking at the chart, we can see
that level corresponds to pretty strong support too, so that will
be our target for the play.  While there's the potential for some
mild support to be found near the November lows at $11.50, the
first real support should be seen near $10 and that can be used
as a more conservative exit target.  We're going to use an entry
trigger at $12 to make sure we get a confirmed breakdown from the
H&S pattern before playing.  Aggressive entries can be taken on
the initial breakdown, while those with a more conservative
approach will want to target a subsequent failed rally attempt in
the $12.50-12.75 area.  Place stops initially at $13.50, which is
just over the 50-dma ($13.35).

Annotated Chart of HGSI:



Picked on March 14th at     $12.34
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =    1.40 mln



==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------





=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.






PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-14-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of March 14, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of March  14th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

BTH    Blyth Inc.            Mon, Mar 15  Before the Bell     0.75
CTAS   Cintas Corporation    Mon, Mar 15  After the Bell      0.39
DG     Dollar General Corp.  Mon, Mar 15  -----N/A-----       0.34
IMCL   ImClone Systems Inc   Mon, Mar 15  -----N/A-----      -0.32
L      Liberty Media Group   Mon, Mar 15  -----N/A-----       0.05
SRV    Service Corp Intl     Mon, Mar 15  Before the Bell     0.06
THC    Tenet Healthcare      Mon, Mar 15  After the Bell      0.02
UCOMA  UnitedGlobalCom, Inc. Mon, Mar 15  Before the Bell    -0.02
URS    URS Corp.             Mon, Mar 15  After the Bell      0.23


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ANPI   Angiotech Pharm       Tue, Mar 16  After the Bell     -0.05
CLL    Celltech Group PLC    Tue, Mar 16  02:00 am ET          N/A
FDS    FactSet Research Sys  Tue, Mar 16  -----N/A-----       0.41
GIS    General Mills, Inc.   Tue, Mar 16  Before the Bell     0.66
KBH    KB Home               Tue, Mar 16  After the Bell      1.60
LEH    LEHMAN BROS HLDGS INC Tue, Mar 16  -----N/A-----       1.64
LEN    Lennar Corporation    Tue, Mar 16  After the Bell      0.83
ROST   Ross Stores, Inc.     Tue, Mar 16  08:00 am ET         0.48
SCHL   Scholastic            Tue, Mar 16  After the Bell      0.01


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BF     BASF                  Wed, Mar 17  01:30 am ET          N/A
BSC    Bear Stearns          Wed, Mar 17  Before the Bell     2.00
BMET   Biomet, Inc.          Wed, Mar 17  Before the Bell     0.33
DRI    Darden Restaurants    Wed, Mar 17  After the Bell      0.45
ERJ    Embraer-Empresa Bras  Wed, Mar 17  After the Bell      0.34
FDX    FedEx                 Wed, Mar 17  Before the Bell     0.67
GPN    Global Payments Inc.  Wed, Mar 17  After the Bell      0.40
MLHR   Herman Miller         Wed, Mar 17  After the Bell      0.11
JBL    Jabil                 Wed, Mar 17  After the Bell      0.22
SQM    Sociedad Quimica      Wed, Mar 17  Before the Bell      N/A
TIBX   TIBCO Software        Wed, Mar 17  After the Bell      0.03
V      Vivendi Universal     Wed, Mar 17  -----N/A-----        N/A
WOR    Worthington Ind       Wed, Mar 17  Before the Bell     0.16


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

COMS   3Com Corp             Thu, Mar 18  After the Bell     -0.13
ADBE   Adobe Systems         Thu, Mar 18  After the Bell      0.40
AAA    Altana AG             Thu, Mar 18  -----N/A-----        N/A
BKS    Barnes&Noble          Thu, Mar 18  Before the Bell     1.65
BAY    Bayer                 Thu, Mar 18  Before the Bell      N/A
CGA    Corus Group plc       Thu, Mar 18  Before the Bell      N/A
ERF    Enerplus Res Fund     Thu, Mar 18  -----N/A-----        N/A
KMRT   Kmart                 Thu, Mar 18  -----N/A-----        N/A
NKE    Nike                  Thu, Mar 18  After the Bell      0.69
PFP    Prem Farnell Plc (ADR)Thu, Mar 18  Before the Bell      N/A
SLR    Solectron             Thu, Mar 18  After the Bell     -0.02
TEK    Tektronix Inc.        Thu, Mar 18  After the Bell      0.25
WSM    Williams-Sonoma       Thu, Mar 18  Before the Bell     0.84
WGO    Winnebago             Thu, Mar 18  Before the Bell     0.46


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

CLC    CLARCOR Inc.          Fri, Mar 19  -----N/A-----       0.45
PAYX   Paychex               Fri, Mar 19  Before the Bell     0.21


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable


CTX     Centex Corporation        2:1      Mar  12th   Mar  15th
BRL     Barr Pharmaceuticals      3:2      Mar  15th   Mar  16th
ATVI    Activision, Inc           3:2      Mar  15th   Mar  16th
CEC     CEC Entertainment Inc     3:2      Mar  15th   Mar  16th
CLZR    Candela Corp              2:1      Mar  16th   Mar  17th
DCOM    Dime                      3:2      Mar  16th   Mar  17th
GWR     Genesee & Wyoming Inc     3:2      Mar  18th   Mar  19th
XTO     XTO Energy Inc            5:4      Mar  18th   Mar  19th
HBHC    Hancock                   2:1      Mar  18th   Mar  19th
DCI     Donaldson Company, Inc    2:1      Mar  19th   Mar  22nd
NIHD    NII Holdings, Inc         3:1      Mar  22nd   Mar  23rd
ASFI    Asta Funding Inc          2:1      Mar  23rd   Mar  24th
COCO    Corinthian Colleges Inc   2:1      Mar  23rd   Mar  24th
RJF     Raymond James Financial   3:2      Mar  24th   Mar  25th
AMSG    AmSurg Corp               3:2      Mar  24th   Mar  25th
SCHN    Schnitzer Steel Ind, Inc  3:2      Mar  25th   Mar  26th
WGA     Wells-Gardner Elect Corp 21:20     Mar  26th   Mar  29th
HOV     Hovnanian Ent, Inc        2:1      Mar  26th   Mar  29th
MVL     Marvel Enterprises        3:2      Mar  26th   Mar  29th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Wall Street's main focus this week will be Tuesday's FOMC
meeting but the week is riddled with economic reports that
could move the market in absence of any major headlines.
Earnings warning season is almost upon us.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 03/15/04
----------------
NY Empire State Index(BB)  Mar  Forecast:    38.9  Previous:    42.05
Industrial Production(DM)  Feb  Forecast:    0.4%  Previous:     0.8%
Capacity Utilization (DM)  Feb  Forecast:   76.4%  Previous:    76.2%


-----------------
Tuesday, 03/16/04
-----------------
Housing Starts (BB)        Feb  Forecast:   1930K  Previous:    1903K
Building Permits (BB)      Feb  Forecast:   1903K  Previous:    1920K
FOMC Meeting


-------------------
Wednesday, 03/17/04
-------------------
CPI (BB)                   Feb  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.5%
Core CPI (BB)              Feb  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.2%
Greenspan speaks to banking community.

------------------
Thursday, 03/18/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      03/13  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     341K
Leading Indicators (DM)    Feb  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.5%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)      Mar  Forecast:    29.5  Previous:     31.4
SEMI Book-to-Bill report

----------------
Friday, 03/19/04
----------------
Wall Street is looking for both the January and February PPI reports
to be released soon.  Both have been delayed and they are tentatively
on the schedule for this Friday.


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

XOM     Exxon Mobil Corporation    42.03    +0.68
C       Citigroup                  49.31    +0.69
CHL     China Mobile Ltd           16.21    +0.51
BAC     Bank of America Corp       80.32    +0.77
MER     Merrill Lynch & Co         62.23    +1.13
PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd (ADS)    51.80    +2.03


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

None


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

AVE     Aventis                    79.51    +3.26
SNY     Sanofi-synthelabo (ADS)    35.39    +1.45
LXK     Lexmark International      85.77    +3.92
AET     Aetna Inc New              84.42    +4.77
CBH     Commerce Bancorp Inc NJ    64.49    +1.09


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MO      Altria Group Inc           54.31    -2.01
FRX     Forest Laboratories Inc    70.84    -1.96
MBI     MBIA Inc                   63.68    -1.15


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

None


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