PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 03-16-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Jobs Lagged Watch List: SEBL, PMCS, PLCM, SYMC Market Sentiment: Turning Defensive ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 03-16-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10184.67 + 81.80 10221.11 10103.41 1.87 bln 1882/1334 NASDAQ 1943.10 + 3.90 1961.99 1927.69 1.96 bln 1438/1694 S&P 100 545.56 + 3.30 547.14 541.20 Totals 3320/3028 S&P 500 1110.70 + 6.21 1113.82 1102.61 W5000 10844.34 + 45.70 10891.48 10771.38 SOX 477.04 + 5.30 480.45 470.01 RUS 2000 566.64 - 0.31 573.85 562.67 DJ TRANS 2788.35 - 2.10 2815.66 2771.04 VIX 20.34 - 0.79 20.94 19.86 VXO (VIX-O)20.71 - 0.67 21.34 20.20 VXN 27.34 + 0.21 27.66 26.66 Total Volume 4,175M Total UpVol 2,605M Total DnVol 1.473M Total Adv 3742 Total Dcl 3465 52wk Highs 159 52wk Lows 55 TRIN 1.08 NAZTRIN 0.63 PUT/CALL 1.06 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Jobs Lagged The Fed met and caught up on all the pertinent family news, enjoyed a leisurely lunch, talked a little economics then threw the markets into a turmoil with a carefully worded announcement. How do you get a job like that? Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily The morning started off a little rocky with the second drop in a row for New Housing Starts. The drop surprised everyone when a gain was expected. The headline number at 1,855M was the lowest level since last August. January was revised up slightly but not enough to offset the -4% drop in February. The decline was broad based and across all product types. Permits also slowed which suggests there will be even fewer starts in March. Analysts are still claiming that winter storms have been particularly numerous although not very severe. If this is running the construction teams behind it could mean we are going to see prices soar in the spring due to lack of inventory. The continued low interest rates now dropping even lower should offset any weakness from the lack of new jobs. I feel we are just passing time until the spring weather and buying season arrives and the explosion will begin. The Manpower Survey for Q2 was also announced and the results were very strong. According to the survey 28% of employers plan to hire in the 2Q compared to 20% in the first quarter. Only 6% plan on cutting jobs in Q2 compared to 13% in Q1. If these projections hold true it means there is a significant jump in hiring in our near future. To put this in perspective the net number, percentage planning increases minus the percentage planning cuts was 22% for the 2Q. This was up from only 7% in Q1 and an average of 11% all the way back to 2003-Q1. This is double the quarterly number for the last five quarters and triple the Q1-2004 number. This is very bullish in my opinion. We still have to see these projections turn into real job growth but the fuse has been lit. Historically a net number over 20 has coincided with net job growth of 200,000+ per month. The big news of the day was of course the Fed meeting and the resulting market impact. The Fed left rates unchanged as everyone expected and they left the announcement ALMOST unchanged from January. The keyword there is almost. The jobs statement changed from "Although new hiring remains subdued, other indicators suggest an improvement in the labor market" to "Although job losses have slowed, new hiring has lagged." The change from "improvement" to "new hiring has lagged" sent the bond market through the roof. The acknowledgment by the Fed that jobs are slipping should mean the Fed is on hold for a considerable period instead of raising rates any time this year as some have feared. The ten-year yield fell to the lows for the month and closed at 3.68%. They also changed the economic growth statement from "the evidence confirms that output is expanding briskly" to "indicates that output is continuing to expand at a solid pace". Note the subtle difference with "confirm" and "briskly" to "indicates" and "solid pace". This suggests that the confirmation has failed and the Fed has briskly moved away from any affirmation of strengthening growth. Solid pace sounds like a mall walker with a cane where briskly is a vision of an outdoor power walker being towed by a dog on a leash. The Fed also refused to discount deflation as a threat and would only say that the risks of inflation/deflation were "almost equal" with deflation still getting the nod. Also failing to stimulate any positive market response was the risks to upside/downside sustainable growth remain "roughly equal." Roughly equal? Sounds like the odds of sustainable growth or returning recession are a coin toss. What was expected to be a lackluster repeat of the prior position could be interpreted as a caution that things are not as positive as they seem. The bond market definitely took it that way and so did some equity traders. The Dow made three trips between 10100-10200. The opening spike bled points until the Fed announcement and then dove to the 10100 level on the weak interpretation. Buyers who felt the Fed statement meant they were on the sideline for the rest of the year bought the dip and the Dow rebounded to hit 10200 before the close. The Dow finished up +81 points but the Nasdaq only managed +3. Tech stocks remain under pressure despite the morning bounce and they barely returned to positive territory before time expired. The challenge appears to be the small caps with the Russell closing negative for the day. Even the SOX closed in positive territory. The Russell broke support today and failed to recover despite an end of day bounce. The afternoon drop took it within one point of the 100dma but the rebound was lacking. This could be a prime example of a shift in the market sentiment. We know techs are being sold despite the guarantee of low rates because business is not booming. It also suggests there is rotation underway from small caps into blue chips. This is the most troubling symptom for me. It could mean institutions are expecting trouble ahead and they want to be in the highly liquid issues where they can still be in the market but exit quickly if they must. The Russell weakness really began last Wednesday when the first Al Qaeda link to the bombings in Spain was reported. The best analogy I can draw would be in ice fishing. The best fishing is sometimes far from shore in the deeper water and somewhat thinner ice. In the spring the more aggressive fishermen may ignore the potential for thinning ice in hopes of a bigger return. One day while they are fishing they start to hear the ice groaning and creaking. After discussing it they decide they are probably safe until the April temperatures really start to thaw the ice quickly. Suddenly there is a loud crack and the ice shakes. They realize the threat was closer and more dangerous than they thought. No longer are they concerned about catching the last of the big fish for the season but in getting off the ice before it breaks under them. Apply this analogy to mutual funds, tech stocks, April earnings, bombings in Spain and the realization that Al Qaeda may have found a way to shatter the ice faster with terror events before key world elections. Get me the heck out of here and back to the safety of liquidity, quick. Fortunately we are not seeing any race to the exits and this is just an analogy but the March winds may not be bringing just April showers. Schwab reported today that trading volume in February fell -21% from January levels. They also said March was on track to post the same meager levels as February. That analysis bears out if we look at the volume over the last couple weeks. The only heavy volume we have had was on down days. The few bounces have been on relativity light volume showing a lack of interest by buyers. Mutual funds reported negative cash flows for last week. That was the first time since last July that funds failed to see gains. With the rising levels of uncertainty the "sell in May and go away" crowd may not be waiting until May. I know this potential analysis may seem very negative and I definitely do not want to give that opinion. Markets tend to do exactly the opposite of what they are indicating on the surface and especially when they can embarrass the most people. I would love to see the rebound we saw today blossom into a raging bull again but we need to see some proof before we can claim it. There were several critical levels hit today that could be seen as support for a new rally. I have been pointing you to the SPX uptrend support and 100dma at 1100. We came within two points of hitting that level today and saw a strong rebound. This is the closest and strongest support the bulls can claim as their bottom. The Wilshire is fighting to hold the 10800 level which is also the uptrend support. The SOX has held above strong support at 475 for the last five days despite the major market drops. This is very bullish if it can continue to hold this level. The NDX has spent three of the last four days fighting to hold 1400 and median support from the fourth quarter. This is a key level for the NDX with the 200dma at 1375. This is a very strong support range for all of these indexes. SPX Chart - Daily Wilshire-5000 Chart - Daily SOX Chart - Daily NDX Chart - Daily The Dow ventured as low as 10103 today and while that is not a real support level it has held for the last two days. The next support level is Dow 10000 and while it is more of a large psychological target than a support level I expect the market makers and funds to try and hold it. A drop back below 10000 would send such a negative message to the market that funds would hemorrhage cash. When they have cash outflows they have to sell stock and it produces a self perpetuating cycle. They should try to hold that level at all costs. This also equates to Nasdaq 1900 although it is less visible. The 1900 level is strong support on the Nasdaq and a level that could be tested at any time. We are only one down day away from 10000/1900. One potentially bullish sentiment indicator is the number of oversold stocks on the Nasdaq. In March of 2003 and at the lows for the year there were only 22 Nasdaq stocks over their 100dma. As of today there were only 31. We are very close to what many would call bargain hunting levels that were worth the risk. The rest of the week could be incredibly exciting or very boring. This is a quadruple expiration week and there could be some heavy position adjusting over the next three days. If however we saw that adjusting over the last week as evidenced by the last four days of 100 point swings in the Dow then we could just expire in the current range. Index option volume is running nearly twice the normal average and it suggests traders are either betting on a change or protecting existing positions. The points where the most index options will expire worthless is generally slightly higher than our present level and suggests we could see a slightly higher bias as the market makers try to steer the prices to those levels. These are the levels most favorable to the market makers. SPX 1125 NDX 1450 DJX 104 OEX 550 RUT 580 SOX 500 QQQ 36 I am not going to try and suggest what will happen for the rest of this week because the number of internal and external factors are enormous. There is no way to quantify them all into some sort of comprehensive view. Quite a few analysts think this is a terrific buying opportunity, others are suggesting selling the rallies. Earnings are still growing as evidenced by the MMM news yesterday and a couple of the home builders today. We are far from down and out but the market discounting mechanism is in full swing and compressing PE ratios left and right. Volume today as in Friday's rally was light. New 52-week highs at 160 were at their low for the year and at levels not seen since August-7th. The VXO has traded in the 21 range for the last three days and at levels not seen since October. Make no mistake there is risk in the market for both the bulls and the bears. Play in the traffic if you must but be sure to look both ways before stepping off the curb. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Siebel Systems, Inc. - SEBL - close: 10.91 change: -0.39 WHAT TO WATCH: Last week's break of the 200-dma looked like a significant breakdown for shares of SEBL and with that breakdown continuing today, that view is confirmed. SEBL lost near 3.5% to close at its worst level since early October and selling volume is on the rise. Entries look favorable on a break below today's low or on a failed bounce below $11.30. Look for a continued drop to the $9.50 area for a test of support at broken resistance. --- PMC-Sierra Inc. - PMCS - close: 17.51 change: -0.01 WHAT TO WATCH: Last week was not pretty for PMCS investors, as the stock cratered under key support near $17.50. With a bit of a rebound from last Thursday's lows, the bulls have gotten a bit of a reprieve, but it looks like nothing more than consolidation before the next leg down. Use a trigger under the 200-dma ($16.64) and look for a drop to next strong support near $14. --- Polycom Inc. - PLCM - close: 19.10 change: +0.42 WHAT TO WATCH: Fulfilling our downside expectations, PLCM actually broke below $19 and tapped the 200-dma on Monday before a slight rebound today, resulting in the stock painting an inside day. With the selling pressure still on, the stock appears vulnerable to a break below the 200-dma, which should extend all the way down to strong support near $16.50-17.00. Use a trigger under $18.40. --- Symantec Corp. - SYMC - close: 43.01 change: -0.58 WHAT TO WATCH: Holding up far better than the rest of the market, shares of SYMC appear to be consolidating in preparation for another attempt at a breakout over the $45 level. Once over that level, look for a resumption of the rally that began in December to propel the stock towards the $50 level. Use a trigger over $45. =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== INTC $27.16 - Last week's breakdown under the 200-dma was a major blow to the Chip bulls and since then the stock has been trying to build support near $27. The stock is overdue for a near-term rebound, but it will then find formidable resistance at the 200- dma. Use a failed rebound in the $28.50-29.00 area to establish bearish positions, looking for a decline down to support at $25. TRMS $16.04 - It seems nothing can stop the persistent weakness in shares of TRMS and the breakdown in the BTK index certainly isn't helping. The stock broke below the bottom of its 10-week trading range today on strong volume and it looks like the next stopping point will be the 1999 lows in the $11-12 area. Entries look favorable either on a failed bounce below $17 or on a break below today's $15.68 intraday low. OTEX $27.79 - Monday's drop in shares of OTEX looked bad for the bulls, and the picture didn't get any better on Tuesday with the stock falling to test the 50-dma. If that average fails to hold as support, OTEX looks vulnerable down to the $24 support level, near the top of the early January gap. Use a trigger under today's $27.30 low. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Turning Defensive - J. Brown Alas another FOMC meeting has come and gone and interest rates have remained unchanged as expected. Any day the FOMC is due to announce a decision tends to produce volatility and this one seemed even more prone to swings given the quadruple-witching options and futures expiration this Friday. Overall the tone of the session seemed defensive. Yes, the markets bounced but they didn't bounce very high and they failed to close or even trade above yesterday's highs. The good news has been the string of upside preannouncements. Dow component MMM guided higher last night following GE's on Monday morning. These are just two off the top of my head. There were more last week. If this trend continues it might inspire some courage ahead of the April earnings season. If not well we're doomed to more sideways to down trading as the second half of March tends to be more bearish than the first - at least according to the Stock Traders Almanac. Keep an eye on the SOX. The Semiconductor index pulled back to support at the 470 level earlier today and bounced. While this is encouraging I don't think the trend has changed yet for the chips and the SOX is likely to hit its 200-dma a few points lower before really turning higher again. Also keep an eye on the homebuilders. I know we're constantly being bombarded with are they or aren't they overbought questions. It's hard to argue that the group hasn't performed very well over the last several days. KB Homes (KBH) announced earnings after the close tonight and beat by 16 cents with profits jumping 40%. This could reignite the group again tomorrow. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 7779 Current : 10184 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10371 50-dma: 10536 200-dma: 9774 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 827 Current : 1110 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1131 50-dma: 1137 200-dma: 1051 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1014 Current : 1407 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1435 50-dma: 1490 200-dma: 1374 ----------------------------------------------------------------- It was a volatile day but in the end the volatility indices only churned sideways. Given their current position we can surmise that the selling may not be over yet. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 20.34 -0.79 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 20.71 -0.67 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 27.34 +0.21 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 1.06 784,976 830,306 Equity Only 0.93 543,232 504,419 OEX 1.07 47,943 51,150 QQQ 1.90 33,392 63,494 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 72.1 - 1 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 43.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 80.0 + 0 Bull Correction S&P 500 76.8 - 3 Bull Correction S&P 100 84.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.75 10-dma: 1.64 21-dma: 1.35 55-dma: 1.12 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1654 1440 Decliners 1158 1575 New Highs 63 40 New Lows 13 19 Up Volume 1178M 1144M Down Vol. 618M 771M Total Vol. 1833M 1960M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/09/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders are committing new money to both long and short positions but they are turning more and more bearish in the large S&P contracts. Small traders are holding relatively steady. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/17/04 416,148 415,278 870 0.0% 02/24/04 417,490 416,502 988 0.0% 03/02/04 411,932 418,936 (7,004) (0.1%) 03/09/04 418,394 433,237 (14,843) (1.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/17/04 141,533 84,227 57,306 25.3% 02/24/04 141,559 85,171 56,388 24.9% 03/02/04 148,383 84,135 64,248 27.6% 03/09/04 155,947 88,317 67,630 27.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Wow! We really saw some money come into the e-mini's this week. Commercial traders added nearly 90K new long contracts and more than 90K new short contracts. They remain net bearish on the S&P. Small traders also added more to their positions but remain net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/17/04 296,313 371,703 (75,390) (11.3%) 02/24/04 320,425 387,255 (66,830) ( 9.4%) 03/02/04 344,805 395,112 (50,307) ( 6.8%) 03/09/04 431,623 485,268 (53,645) ( 5.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/17/04 144,014 64,391 79,623 38.2% 02/24/04 129,894 63,524 66,370 34.3% 03/02/04 119,382 67,453 51,929 27.8% 03/09/04 135,233 76,558 58,675 27.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders have slowly been turning more and more bullish on the NASDAQ 100 over the last few weeks. As of March 9th, they hit new extremes surpassing they're last bullish peak dating back to June 11th, 2002. Unfortunately, this reading is before the steep Wednesday-Thursday sell-off this week and before the Thursday morning terror attack in Spain. We'll have to wait until next week to see how commercial traders, or "smart money", reacts to the last few sessions. Small traders have also turned more bullish but they're not hitting extreme readings. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/17/04 46,104 40,385 5,719 6.6% 02/24/04 47,266 40,452 6,814 7.8% 03/02/04 49,959 41,059 8,900 9.8% 03/09/04 57,368 46,082 11,286 10.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 11,286 - 03/12/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/17/04 9,630 12,338 (2,708) (12.3%) 02/24/04 12,388 7,310 5,078 25.8% 03/02/04 11,605 7,128 4,477 23.9% 03/09/04 15,533 8,070 7,463 31.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders or institutions have been slowly growing more and more bullish on the Dow over the last few weeks. Again, this latest data is before the Wednesday-Thursday sell-off and the Thursday terror event but it is encouraging. In contrast small traders have turned more bearish and actually hit a new extreme in their bearishness, surpassing last December's readings. This is a contrarian bullish indicator since small traders tend to be wrong. Yet I would hesitate to draw too many conclusions until we see next week's data and investor reaction to the terrorist attacks. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/17/04 24,451 12,907 11,544 30.9% 02/24/04 27,176 13,918 13,258 32.3% 03/02/04 27,594 14,166 13,428 32.2% 03/09/04 26,867 12,845 14,022 35.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/17/04 6,768 15,623 (8,855) (39.5%) 02/24/04 6,509 14,919 (8,410) (39.2%) 03/02/04 6,898 15,874 (8,976) (39.4%) 03/09/04 7,053 19,159 (12,106) (46.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 03-16-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: VRTS Stock Splits: AVD, CFC, MSFG Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= VRTS - short Adjust from $32.50 down to $30.05 ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- AVD declares a 3-for-2 stock split Tuesday afternoon American Vanguard Corp. (AMEX:AVD) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split and a 12 cent cash dividend. The cash dividend and the stock split is payable (distributed) on April 16th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of March 26th. The cash dividend will be paid on a pre-split basis. Fractional shares from the 3:2 split will be paid in cash. About the company: American Vanguard Corporation is a diversified specialty and agricultural products company that develops and markets products for crop protection and management, turf and ornamentals management and public and animal health. The Company's basic strategy is to acquire brand name, niche product lines from larger companies that divest mature products to focus on newly discovered molecules. During 2003, American Vanguard was recognized as one of BusinessWeek's Hot Growth Companies (#94), Fortune Small Business' America's 100 Fastest Growing Small Companies (#35) and Forbes' Hot Shots: 200 Up and Coming Companies (#23). (source: company press release) --- CFC announces a 3-for-2 stock split This morning before the opening bell Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE: CFC) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split in the form of a stock dividend. The dividend is payable on April 12th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of March 26th. According to CFC's press release this is their second split announcement in six months. Post-split CFC will have close to 279 million shares outstanding. About the company: Founded in 1969, Countrywide Financial Corporation is a member of the S&P 500, Forbes 500 and Fortune 500. Through its family of companies, Countrywide provides mortgage banking and diversified financial services in domestic and international markets. Mortgage banking businesses include loan production and servicing principally through Countrywide Home Loans, Inc., which originates, purchases, securitizes, sells, and services primarily prime-quality loans. Also included in Countrywide's mortgage banking segment is the LandSafe group of companies which provide loan closing services. Diversified financial services encompass capital markets, banking, insurance, and global, largely through the activities of Countrywide Capital Markets, a mortgage-related investment banker; Countrywide Bank, a division of Treasury Bank, N.A., a bank offering customers CDs, money market accounts, and home loan products; Balboa Life and Casualty Group, whose companies are national providers of property, liability, and life insurance; Balboa Reinsurance, a captive mortgage reinsurance company; and Global Home Loans, a UK mortgage banking joint venture in which Countrywide holds a majority interest. (source: company press release) --- MSFG declares a 3-for-2 stock split Tuesday afternoon MainSource Financial Group (NASDAQ:MSFG) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its common shares. The split will be payable (distributed) on April 16th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of March 31st. According to MSFG's press release this is in addition to its 5% stock dividend that was paid on January 9th, 2004. Post-split MSFG will have 10.6 million shares outstanding and fractional shares resulting from the 3:2 split will be paid in cash. About the company: MainSource Financial Group, Inc., headquartered in Greensburg, Indiana, is listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market (trading symbol: MSFG). MainSource Financial Group is a community-focused, multi- bank, financial services oriented holding company with assets of approximately $1.4 billion. Through its four banking subsidiaries, First Community Bank and Trust, Bargersville, Indiana; MainSource Bank, Greensburg, Indiana; Regional Bank, New Albany, Indiana; and Capstone Bank, Watseka, Illinois, it operates 51 offices in 21 Indiana counties and seven offices in three Illinois counties. Through its insurance subsidiary, MainSource Insurance, it operates five offices in Indiana as well as one in Owensboro, Kentucky. (source: company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BAC Bank of America 80.16 +0.77 C Citigroup 49.96 +0.84 WM Washington Mutual 43.71 +0.57 CD Cendant Corp 23.30 +0.54 GCI Gannett Co Inc 86.07 +0.77 OXY Occidental Petro 45.62 +0.67 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- MGM Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc 18.18 +1.98 PLMO Palmone Inc 14.70 +1.63 JLG JLG Industries Inc 13.65 +1.55 JILL J.Jill Group Inc 18.67 +2.31 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- TK Teekay Shipping 67.46 +2.98 TTWO Take-Two Interactive 34.14 +2.14 AGI Alliance Gaming Corp 31.02 +1.65 ISLE Isle of Capris Casinos 26.37 +3.19 LWAY Lifeway Foods Inc 20.37 +1.72 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- GDT Guidant Corp 64.39 -2.33 VRTS Veritas Software 27.29 -1.85 RCL Royal Caribbean 39.02 -1.44 USM U.S.Cellular Corp 39.60 -1.15 EXBD Corporate Exec Board 45.10 -1.65 PFCB P.F.Chang's China Bistro 48.11 -2.42 NDC NDCHealth Corp 26.74 -1.16 MSTR MicroStrategy 52.73 -4.94 ANSI Advanced Neuromo Sys 38.73 -1.81 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- CME Chicago Mercantile Exchange 91.45 -2.05 URS URS Corp 28.65 -1.79 WCI WCI Communities 23.29 -0.60 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.
Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.
To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "email@example.com"
Option Investor Inc