Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 03/21/2004

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-21-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Don't Look Now!
Market Sentiment:  Strength Hard to Find
Watch List:        WMAR, WOR, FMC, GLW

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 03-19        WE 03-12        WE 03-05        WE 02-27
DOW    10186.60 - 53.48 10240.1 -355.47 10595.5 + 11.63 - 35.11
Nasdaq  1940.47 - 44.26 1984.73 - 62.90 2047.63 + 17.81 -  8.11
S&P-100  543.68 -  6.24  549.92 - 18.53  568.45 +  3.91 -  0.33
S&P-500 1109.74 - 10.83 1120.57 - 36.29 1156.86 + 11.91 +  0.84
W5000  10852.98 -115.20 10968.2 -346.24 11314.4 +141.50 + 29.34
SOX      463.35 - 21.75  485.10 - 19.15  504.25 +  1.99 -  7.99
RUT      570.74 - 12.10  582.84 - 16.70  599.54 + 13.98 +  5.67
TRAN    2786.83 - 76.26 2863.09 - 29.98 2893.07 -  9.12 + 10.01
VIX       19.15 +  0.85   18.30 +  3.82   14.48 -  0.09 -  1.47
VXO       19.16 +  0.44   18.72 +  3.92   14.80 +  0.04 -  1.49
VXN       25.99 +  0.69   25.30 +  3.22   22.08 -  0.79 -  1.25
TRIN       1.93            0.44            1.40            1.26
Put/Call   1.03            1.05            0.79            0.73
WE = week ending
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Don't Look Now!
by Jim Brown

While the talking heads were focused on the battle in Pakistan
and the market analysts were talking about option expiration
and S&P rebalancing the SOX quietly headed south. As if
escaping under the cover of al Qaeda news the semi stocks
ignored several upgrades and a strong book-to-bill report to
break support at 475 and break the back of the market as well.

There were no material economic reports on Friday but I doubt
it would have mattered. The market makers managed to pin the
S&P at resistance before the open and once the index options
were settled the ugly began. We traded flat on very low volume
until 2:30 with everyone wondering which forces would control
our fate. There was no material news out of Pakistan and the
news we did get seemed to point to a longer resolution than
everyone first thought. It could be days before the military
can overcome the resistance and sort through the rubble. They
were ordering up a couple more regiments to aid in the battle.

While we waited there was a battle underway in the markets
with the bulls and bears trading control several times during
the day. The battle fought to a draw about 1:PM and the
waiting for end of day option volatility began. At a little
after 2:30 Art Cashin reminded viewers on CNBC that the S&P
was being rebalanced at the close and within five minutes
the bottom fell out of the S&P.

The rebalancing was due to the +$3.8B in new stock being
issued by GE. This increase in market cap meant index fund
managers had to buy more GE and sell small amounts of the
499 other stocks in the S&P. Between Art's reminder at 2:30
and the close the S&P lost -10 points. The high/low range
before that had been five points for the entire day and
centered around 1120. We closed at 1110. Ironically GE fell
like a rock in the last hour despite the doubling of shares
traded for the day in the last hour. GE went from 19M to just
over 40M in the last hour. One analyst suggested the hedge
funds had accumulated shares to sell into the expected bounce
while other funds were hoping for the bounce to unload shares
of what has been an under performer. With funds seeing a net
-$1.5B outflow of cash for the week ended on Wednesday they
may have been targeting the expected rebalancing bounce to
raise cash. Unfortunately the joke was on everyone it appears
as far more sellers appeared than buyers. The net result was
net selling on the S&P without any compensating bounce in GE.

Obviously option expiration may have had some impact in the
end of day market direction but that did not prevent some
serious confusion at the close. With the potential for a
resolution in Pakistan over the weekend you would not have
expected anyone to hold shorts over the weekend. Since we
did go down and go down sharply it would suggest there was
some serious sell side action where traders were simply
getting out of the market. This is disturbing to the overall
sentiment picture.

I kept watching the Russell all day and it was the strongest
of all the indexes and held at the high end of its range. At
least it held until 3:PM. About 15 min after the S&P began
to implode the Russell followed suit. Whether it was the
copycat syndrome where strong selling in one index begets
selling in others OR small cap bears combined with options
expiration triggered stops. Small cap mutual funds saw
outflows of -$1B in the week ended Wednesday.

What we should have been watching more closely was the SOX.
The index gapped down on a strong book-to-bill number. That
should have been a clue. The 1.14 number was lower than the
prior number of 1.19 but only because shipments grew much
faster than orders. Orders grew +6.5% for the month and
shipments +11%. No weakness there and orders have been
accelerating since June-2003. In fact orders are at a three
year high. It did not seem to matter to the semi sellers.
The drop was blamed on weak comments from Taiwan Semi, the
worlds largest contract foundry. The chairman of TSM said
he expects spending on new plants and equipment to fall by
as much as 50% next year. He expects new plants being built
in China to lead to over-capacity. He also said he expected
global semi growth to slow to 10% in 2005 from 26% in 2004.
TSM just doubled its capex budget to $2 billion last October
and the announcement they were cutting it back to $1B was
a shock to analysts. It also did not help to have an
assassination attempt on the president and vice president
of Taiwan on Friday.

Obviously the news was a shock to traders as well. The SOX
tried to rise around lunch time as dip buyers bought support
at 473 once again but the rebound attempt was weak. A climax
spike to 479 at 11:40 was the peak and the downhill slide
began immediately and accelerated into the close. The SOX
ended up losing -17, -3.6% for the day. The worst of the
damage was the failure at support. For the last eight days
the SOX has held at the 473-475 level despite some serious
selling in techs. This was the line in the sand launch
point for any potential April earnings run. There will be
no earnings run if the SOX does not participate and after
Friday's action I now have serious doubts.

If we back up and look at the market from a broader
perspective we can watch the current weakness as it unfolds.
Using the Dow as a starting point we had a very nice run
that began last year. The spurt into January pushed the
index to 10705 on Jan-26th and we spent the next six weeks
trying to break that high. Once it became apparent the
rally was tired everyone started expecting a profit taking
correction. We have seen that over the last two weeks. The
bad news is the lack of the expected rebound. The difference
between a profit taking correction of -5% to -10% and the
beginning of a trend change is the lack of a rebound. We
are at the point where that rebound must occur or we are
going to retest the corrections lows and I am not optimistic
that retest will hold.

Where we would normally be seeing some bargain hunting in
various stocks after a week at the market lows there is
little buying interest. Intel for instance closed at $26.50
and a seven month low. MSFT closed at $24.63 and a ten-month
low. The damage is not limited to techs. PFE, the second
largest company by market cap, closed at 33.95 and a four
month low. Others at or near multi month lows include Dow
components HPQ, MRK, UTX, GM and JNJ. About the only stocks
holding the high ground are the materials stocks and the
home builders.

The dip that looked like a normal correction at first is
starting to look like just a consolidation pause before
another dip. Obviously we will not know that until we
actually break support at 10000/1900 but the outlook based
on the indexes is far from positive.

But what about the economy? Isn't it growing? Yes, from all
accounts it is actually picking up speed. Commodity prices
are continuing to spike with a price curve that looks like
the Nasdaq during the Internet bubble. All the manufacturers
are scrambling for raw materials with things like copper
and steel seeing shortages in many areas. This is due to
the global expansion not just the U.S. economy. Earnings
are continuing to climb with First Call quoting 15.9% as
of Friday for Q1 earnings. It was estimated at 13.4% at
the end of January. Warnings have been almost nonexistent.
Productivity is still climbing, interest rates are very low
and the goldilocks economy appears to be returning.

Unfortunately where you and I think this should be a good
reason for stocks to be moving up instead of down there is
ample evidence that economic prosperity does not necessarily
translate into a strong stock market. Normally, yes but as
I have explained many times in the past, the market is always
looking 6-9 months into the future. Over the last couple
weeks I have discussed the potential for weakness after the
April earnings cycle due to the election and the potential
for negative expectations. I have mentioned numerous times
that earnings comparisons after the April cycle will become
much more difficult given the slow economic growth. None of
this is news to anyone.

What I think helped change the picture was the Madrid bombing.
Those that were planning on selling in May and going away
have accelerated their timetable with the al Qaeda threat
returning. Also, changing the outlook was the sudden
emergence of John Kerry as a possible winner. Suddenly the
administrative and economic picture became more cloudy. Tax
cuts are no longer guaranteed and a more restrictive period
may be ahead. Oil prices are continuing to rise and closed
over $38 on Friday. The $40 level has been the top for 20
years. The last two times it touched that level were before
the 1991 Desert Storm and again just before the Iraq war
last spring. Already economists are starting to warn that
oil prices are going to impact profits as well as consumer
spending. A break over $40 could have a very serious impact.
Enough of this negativity. You and I may not want to consider
it but we do need to look at the worst case in the markets.

The best case would be a retest of the lows and a drop all
the way to 10000/1900 just to get it over with then a rebound
into April earnings. I do not see any potential for moving
back to the highs but we could see a significant rebound
from our present levels. This bullish case is built on and
depends on no material earnings warnings over the next couple
weeks, no new terrorist attacks and positive cash flow into
funds. It makes no difference what you and I think about
economic and market direction if funds continue to suffer
negative cash flow. That is the true voting booth for the
stock prices.

The bearish case assumes there is more wrong with the
market picture than what we see on the surface. The parade
of analysts on stock TV are pounding the table to buy the
dip and investors are taking money out of the market. Do
you see something wrong with this picture? I know from
experience that trying to out think the market is an
exercise in futility. Once you get a couple turns correctly
and start believing you know what is going to happen the
market does the opposite. That means we always have to
have an alternate plan and that plan is to trade the trend.
That trend may have changed on Friday with the collapse of
the SOX. I still want to hold on to my hope for one more
rebound into April but I am not going to bet money on it
until it happens.

I want you to do something for me. Don't think about
Donald Trump's hair.

I told you not to do it but I bet an image of the world
famous comb over just jumped into your consciousness. I
did that to prove a point. Now look at the charts below
without any bias. I have removed the names and prices to
help. The black line is the 100 dma. What do you see?
Which charts would you buy? Remember, no bias.

Chart 1


Chart 2



Chart 3



Chart 4


Chart 5


Chart 6



Chart 7




If all those charts represented the health of the market
would you give it a passing grade? Would your bias be
positive or negative? Obviously by shortening the time
frame I have taken away all the long term bias that most
charts would give the casual investor. I admit I am very
easily swayed by past events and past trends. We all are.
We tend to unconsciously subscribe to the theory that a
"body in motion tends to remain in motion" and looking at
the markets over the past year they have definitely been
in upward motion. Part of our bias comes from expecting
things to continue doing what they have been doing.

If you had to make an investment decision on Monday on
those charts above would it be to buy, sell or remain on
the sidelines?

The first chart is easy because it is a three-month chart
of the Nasdaq. Would you buy that chart? I would probably
pass. Most people if asked on the street would probably
say the Nasdaq has been in a bullish uptrend. Has it?
You might be surprised to know that the Nasdaq has only
had one up week out of the last nine and only three up
weeks this year. Uptrend? Yes, from March to January,
not from January through March.

The Nasdaq closed down -22 points at 1940 and seems a sure
bet to test 1900 next week. Fortunately for the Nasdaq the
200dma is rapidly approaching that same level and techs
are normally bought at that level. The NDX closed below
1400 on Friday and the QQQ traded three times its normal
volume in the last hour. I look for both to test their
200dma as well.

Nasdaq Chart - Daily


NDX Chart - Daily




The second chart is the SOX. The SOX peaked at 560 and
the high of the year on January-12th. There has been
literally dozens of semi upgrades since then and all to
no avail. I shortened the timeframe on the chart to
illustrate a point. If you expand the time frame you can
always find a critical point to support your trend in motion
stays in motion theory. But if you look at the shorter term
trend the outlook is much different. Using the longer term
chart below and the support break on Friday I would say
our risk is to a much lower level. KLAC is the largest
weighted stock in the SOX at 10% and it broke major support
and fell -2.50 on Friday. It is trading at a five month low
and well above its next support level. We could easily see
another -$5 drop in KLAC. AMAT also broke support and looks
very weak. The SOX closed exactly on the 200dma.

SOX Chart - Daily


KLAC Chart - Daily


AMAT Chart



Chart three was the Dow and by itself may not suggest a
strong negative bias but a definite change in trend. The
trend that changed was the consolidation trend. The Dow
peak was on Feb-11th with successive lower highs into the
middle of March. There was a climax high on Feb-19th
where a higher high was reached but it quickly retraced
to a lower low the next day. Everyone continued to pin
their hopes on a recovery to higher highs on the fact
that we were not making lower lows. We were simply trading
in a consolidation range with 10400 on the bottom and as
long as that range held we bought the dips and sold the
tops with the expectation that a higher move was coming
once all the excess was worked off. The justification for
that thought process was the uptrending support line from
December. Once that support broke the alarms went off and
support at 10400 became the critical level to watch. Now
that all pretenses of support including the 100dma have
been broken there is no real support below us until we
hit the 9600-9800 level. 10000 is round number psychological
support but there is no recent technical basis.




Chart four was Intel. If Intel is the proxy for the semi
sector and techs in general then what does the chart below
suggest will happen. The congestion support at $27-29 barely
slowed its decent and the next likely target is $24. Intel
has broken all reasonable support and is accelerating to the
downside. Do not expect the Nasdaq to recover until Intel
finds a bottom.

Intel Chart - Daily



Chart five was GE and as the proxy for manufacturing, the
economy and the market it is not painting a positive picture.
It is fighting to stay above $30 but after closing below the
200dma and the unexpected drop on the S&P rebalancing it does
not look promising. The next real support for GE is $28 and
I would be surprised if we saw any institution buying before
that level. Once a stock breaks the 200dma it loses a lot of
institutional support. That is normally a sell signal for
funds. This could have added to the volume at the close on
Friday.

GE Chart - Daily



Chart six was the S&P-500 and this is the only real chart
that suggests we may still have a chance at a rebound. The
uptrend support and the 100dma are just over 1100 and that
round number support is critical for this market. The S&P
is a much broader indicator of market health than the Dow
and tech stocks make up 27% of the index.

I have explained in recent articles that the market top
coincided exactly with the 50% retracement of the S&P from
the market top in 2000 to the market low in 2002. If the
uptrend support does break the next logical support level
is the 38% retracement at 1067 followed by much stronger
support at 1000. Extrapolating an S&P drop to 1000 projects
a much lower Dow and Nasdaq and I am not trying to make any
case for that today. I am only exploring the worst case
support levels.

S&P-500 Chart - Daily




Chart seven was the Russell. I have been a fan of the Russell
for some time and it has influenced my bullish bias considerably.
Unfortunately the Russell is struggling. The uptrend support
has been broken and it is barely above the 100dma. At this
point I think we are looking at a clear double top and that
average is about to break. The Russell has rebounded +85% in
the last year and came very close to matching its all time
closing high from 2000. It is the only index to come even
close to recovering all of its losses. The risk now is that
funds with huge gains from this rebound will see the break of
the 100dma as confirmation that the rally is over and begin
closing positions at a faster rate. You can see the battle
being waged between the average and the uptrend support where
we have seen seven days of long candles. If support eventually
fails then we could be faced with a standard retracement of
the gains. A -38% retracement would be almost exactly 500.
Obviously a -70 point drop in the Russell would be a major
hit and would be very ugly.

Russell Chart - Daily




I did not go through this exercise just to say that the
market is going lower. I only wanted to demonstrate that
the trend had changed and despite positive economics and
earnings we could easily go lower. We need to consider both
directions when we are researching a potential position.

The optimist view of the charts above would be looking for
a rebound from 10000/1900 with the S&P holding 1100. The
drop at the close left the S&P at 1109, the Dow at 10186
and the Nasdaq at 1940. Obviously the numbers do not match.
The S&P normally drops one point for every ten Dow points.
That is a rough average but close. The Nasdaq equivalent
is about three points. The S&P is the most widely used
index for measuring the market and is seen as the benchmark.
Using the SPX at 1109 this suggests a drop to 1100 would
put the Dow around 10100 and the Nasdaq at 1910. That would
be a new low for the Nasdaq by -17 points but would put the
Dow right on 10100 and its support lows from this week. The
term support for Dow 10000-10100 is used loosely. There is
no real technical support at those levels, only emotional.
A -25% retracement of the March bottom to Feb top would be
9919 and 9867 from the Oct 2002 bottom to top.

If I had to watch only one thing next week I would watch
these levels. SPX 1100, Dow 10100 and Nasdaq 1900. If there
is any chance for an earnings rebound into April those
levels must hold because a support break there would cause
too much technical damage. (As if we have not seen enough
already)

Nobody knows what really caused the market drop at Friday's
close. Expiration, rebalancing, profit taking or fear of
weekend news events. Nobody knows what will happen at the
open on Monday. Did they find Osama or his lieutenant? Did
we trip some magic buy level at the close? I personally
would like to believe the market will rebound at last ditch
support but we have had a lot of those levels broken day
after day recently. Keene and Keith, both Elliott Wave
followers in the Futures Monitor, are expecting one more
wave up to SPX 1138, Dow 10400. I would like to believe
that but the semiconductor implosion on Friday bothers me.
I have been telling you to watch for a break of 475 as the
confirmation for a trend change and Friday's 463 close sure
does qualify. However, if you are grabbing at straws today
that is also exactly the 200dma for the SOX. Tech stocks
have a strange way of rebounding at those levels but I
would not be placing bets on this one. All eyes will be on
the SOX on Monday and a break of the 200dma could seal our
fate.

I am sure I have totally confused everyone with my various
scenarios but the bottom line is we are at a crossroad. If
we break those support levels (1100/10100/1400) there will
be no bulls left in the corral. Actually there were no bids
on Friday so maybe they already left. Despite all the option
expiration and S&P rebalancing volume we only managed to
trade 3.6B shares across all markets. Very paltry. Down
volume was 3.5:1 over up volume. There are no economic
reports on Monday or Tuesday so nothing to stir up the
markets. Choose your direction carefully next week and
follow the trend. Sounds like a corny clichi but betting
against could be expensive.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Strength Hard to Find
- J. Brown

Ouch!  Friday was another rough day for the markets.  Investors
were being hit left and right with non-market events.  Early
Friday there were reports that police were rushing to Washington
D.C. schools due to a bomb threat.  The current Taiwan President
and his Vice President were both shot while campaigning ahead of
Saturday's general election all while China was performing
military maneuvers off their coast.  Thankfully both men were
okay.  Meanwhile violence in Baghdad continued to heat up as we
approached the 1-year anniversary for last year's Iraq war.  On
top of it all was news of a heated battle on the outskirts of
Pakistan between the Pakistan military and what some reports
described as hundreds of heavily armed men believed to be Al
Queda supporters defending Osama's right hand man.

Yes, it was a rough day and through it all traders had to deal
with a quadruple options and futures expiration and an S&P 500
rebalancing.  The only sector to close the session positive was
the XAU gold & silver index fueled by a small gain in gold to
$412.70 an ounce.  Seems like widespread market declines have
become rather popular lately.  Market internals were naturally
bearish with losers outnumbering advancers almost 18 to 10 on the
NYSE and 18 to 12 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume overpowered up
volume 3-to-1 on both exchanges.

The markets have certainly turned defensive but traditional safe
haven stocks aren't performing very well.  That may be
misleading.  Gold stocks are doing okay and healthcare stocks are
out performing by falling less than the rest of the market.
Unfortunately drug stocks, a traditional safe haven, are getting
punished.  Searching for pockets of strength was rather
disappointing.  Nearly ever sector index I looked at aside from
the XAU was breaking down toward new relative lows or rolling
over from this week's bounce.

Checking out the COT data below this report revealed that the
commercial traders (a.k.a. "smart money) had turned pretty
bearish on the S&P in the e-mini contracts.  Oddly enough they
also turned more bullish on the Nasdaq-100 (NDX).  Could they be
expecting a bounce?  Right now the real concern is the
semiconductor sector.  The SOX tends to lead the NASDAQ up or
down and Friday's 3.6% drop fell straight to its 200-dma.  I
suspect we may see an oversold bounce before it rolls over again
but if it doesn't the NASDAQ could follow it lower rather
quickly.

We might see a bounce on Monday if the Pakistan military prevails
and we do find some high-ranking terrorists but that may only be
a temporary reprieve.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  7929
Current     : 10186

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10272
 50-dma: 10519
200-dma:  9794



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  843
Current     : 1109

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1121
 50-dma: 1137
200-dma: 1053



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1014
Current     : 1398

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1418
 50-dma: 1484
200-dma: 1378


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The volatility indices have pulled back from their recent highs
but they still appear to be in breakout mode and that's generally
bearish for the markets.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.15 +0.62
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 19.16 +0.54
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 25.99 +1.41

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.03        853,502       881,695
Equity Only    0.89        677,758       599,883
OEX            1.03         59,746        61,299
QQQ            2.23         55,512       123,696


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          71.8    + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    44.0    + 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 500       77.2    + 0     Bull Correction
S&P 100       85.0    + 0     Bull Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.46
10-dma: 1.70
21-dma: 1.40
55-dma: 1.14


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1018      1171
Decliners    1774      1853

New Highs     119        81
New Lows       11        15

Up Volume    386M      390M
Down Vol.   1280M     1195M

Total Vol.  1696M     1615M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/16/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Hmm... there's been a lot of action in the commercial traders'
positions the last few weeks.  It's almost like they can't decide
what direction to go.  The latest data shows them switching from
net bearish to net bullish again.   Small traders are more
consistent and remain net bullish although less so than recent
weeks.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/24/04      417,490   416,502       988     0.0%
03/02/04      411,932   418,936    (7,004)   (0.1%)
03/09/04      418,394   433,237   (14,843)   (1.7%)
03/16/04      454,635   449,505     5,130     0.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04      141,559    85,171    56,388    24.9%
03/02/04      148,383    84,135    64,248    27.6%
03/09/04      155,947    88,317    67,630    27.7%
03/16/04      159,054   115,023    44,031    25.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Whoa!  Commercial traders have turned very bearish on the
S&P e-mini's.  Contract volume in both longs and shorts have
soared but they bought almost 90K new shorts pushing bearish
sentiment to new levels not seen in weeks.  Small traders
also increased their positions but remain bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/24/04      320,425   387,255    (66,830)  ( 9.4%)
03/02/04      344,805   395,112    (50,307)  ( 6.8%)
03/09/04      431,623   485,268    (53,645)  ( 5.9%)
03/16/04      472,809   574,241   (101,432)  ( 9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04     129,894     63,524    66,370    34.3%
03/02/04     119,382     67,453    51,929    27.8%
03/09/04     135,233     76,558    58,675    27.7%
03/16/04     192,136     96,691    95,445    33.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders are continuing this bullish trend and
hit another new high in bullish sentiment.  Is everyone
just buying the dip?  Small traders may have taken notice
as they nearly doubled their number of long contracts but
then the more than doubled their short contracts.  At least
the brokers are making some money on commissions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       47,266     40,452     6,814    7.8%
03/02/04       49,959     41,059     8,900    9.8%
03/09/04       57,368     46,082    11,286   10.9%
03/16/04       68,285     54,899    13,386   10.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  13,386   - 03/16/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       12,388     7,310     5,078    25.8%
03/02/04       11,605     7,128     4,477    23.9%
03/09/04       15,533     8,070     7,463    31.6%
03/16/04       27,859    18,333     9,526    20.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Not too much change here for the commercial traders although
they've become significantly less bullish than recent weeks.
Small traders are moving the other direction and becoming
less bearish!


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       27,176    13,918   13,258      32.3%
03/02/04       27,594    14,166   13,428      32.2%
03/09/04       26,867    12,845   14,022      35.3%
03/16/04       32,317    17,514   14,803      29.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/24/04        6,509    14,919   (8,410)   (39.2%)
03/02/04        6,898    15,874   (8,976)   (39.4%)
03/09/04        7,053    19,159  (12,106)   (46.2%)
03/16/04       10,002    20,970  (10,968)   (35.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

West Marine - WMAR - close: 30.21 change: -0.40

WHAT TO WATCH: WMAR is presenting us with another buy the dip or
short the breakdown opportunity.  The stock has been climbing in
a very steady channel for months.  The bottom of the channel and
the bullish entry point of choice is a dip to the 30-dma or the
40-dma.  Since the stock closed under its 30-dma on Friday bulls
will be looking for support at its 40-dma currently at $29.75.  A
breakdown here suggests a change in trend so bears will be
looking for weakness with an eye on the $25.00 level if they're
patient.




---

Worthington Industries - WOR - close: 18.37 change: +0.29

WHAT TO WATCH: Metal and steel stocks were one of the few
industries trading higher on Friday.  Actually shares of WOR have
turned in a very positive week.  WOR broke out above resistance
at $18.00-18.25 during a three-day high-volume rally.  Bulls
might want to watch it for a dip and bounce from the $18.00 mark
again.  Target the $20.00 level.




---

F M C Corp - FMC - close: 37.30 change: -0.16

WHAT TO WATCH: FMC has been consistently bouncing from its 40-dma
and 50-dma for the last several months.  Shares have once again
pulled back to this technical support so bulls should be watching
for signs of a bounce.  A move over $37.75 or $38.25 might be an
early signal to go long although the $40.00 mark is short-term
resistance.  Should support actually fail then bears might want
to consider positions on a breakdown below the next level of
support at $35.00.




---

Corning Inc - GLW - close: 10.57 change: -0.31

WHAT TO WATCH: GLW consistently bounced from its rising trendline
of support for over a year.  That trendline broke down several
days ago and now the stock is trying to find support at its
simple 200-dma.  Coincidentally the 200-dma is near the $10.00
mark.  Bears can watch this level for another breakdown and short
it with a target near the $8.50-8.25 region.  Conversely, if GLW
can build a base here bulls might want to look for a bounce but
keep in mind old support at $12.00 is now new resistance.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

BVN $26.78 +0.75 - Mining stocks were one of the few pockets of
strength on Friday.  This is a Brazilian miner that has broken
its trend of lower highs.

STN $40.80 +1.06 - Casino stocks have been strongly lately and
STN looks like a great relative strength play just be sure to use
a tight stop maybe near the $38.50 level.

ATYT $14.27 -0.29 - Tech stocks have been taking a beating and
ATYT has pulled back to support at the $14.00 level underpinned
by its 200-dma.  There is additional support near $13.50 but a
breakdown under $14.00 looks like bad news.


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-21-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:     RFMD
  Bearish Play Updates:  VRTS
  Closed Bearish Plays:  CCMP

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     BG
  New Bearish Plays:     KKD
  Bullish Play Updates:  SPF, IGT
  Bearish Play Updates:  BBY, PRX
  Closed Bullish Plays:  R, TYC

High Risk/Reward
  Bearish Play Updates:  HGSI


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========


  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

RF Micro Devices - RFMD - close: 8.24 change: -0.45 stop: 9.00

Company Description:
RF Micro Devices Inc., an ISO 9001- and ISO 14001-certified
manufacturer, designs, develops, manufactures and markets
proprietary RFICs primarily for wireless communications products
and applications such as cellular and PCS phones, base stations,
WLANs and cable television modems. The company offers a broad
array of products -- including amplifiers, mixers,
modulators/demodulators, and single-chip receivers, transmitters
and transceivers -- representing a substantial majority of the
RFICs required in wireless subscriber equipment. The company's
goal is to be the premier supplier of low-cost, high-performance
integrated circuits and solutions for applications that enable
wireless connectivity. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
No doubt you've noticed the weakness in the chip sector these
days.  The SOX dropped 3.6% on Friday and almost broke through
its 200-dma.  The heavy selling prompted RFMD to breakthrough key
support at the $8.50 level after weeks of consolidation.  It
didn't help that RFMD had already broken its simple 200-dma and
had been fighting with resistance at $9.00 all week.

We're adding RFMD to the bearish tech-stock play list due to its
technical breakdown and the weakness in the SOX.  Should the
selling continue then RFMD is probably headed for a test of
support in the $7.00 range.  Although if you look at its bearish
P&F chart you'll see that P&F support is at $6.00 and its P&F
target is at $4.50.  Potentially souring investor sentiment are
recent rumors that RFMD might be a potential buyer in some
industry consolidation and normally the buyer's stock goes down
even it the move is helpful longer-term.

Keep in mind that stocks and indices tend to bounce when they
first touch their 200-dma so the SOX could bounce next week.
That might give readers a chance to look for bearish entry points
on a failed rally under the $8.50 level in RFMD (or under $9.00).


Annotated Chart:



Picked on March 21 at $ 8.24
Gain since picked:    - 0.00
Earnings Date       04/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   11.4 million





============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------
Veritas Software -VRTS - close: 28.13 change: -0.14 stop: 30.05

Investors were rattled on Tuesday, when VRTS announced that they
would have to restate their financial results for the past 3
years and that they would fail to file its 2003 annual report
with the SEC on time.  With that admission, the stock is in
danger of delisting and since currently out of compliance, their
symbol has been changed to VRTSE.  The company promises that it
will be back in compliance well before a delisting action would
have to be taken by the exchange, but investors didn't like the
news one bit.  VRTSE slammed lower on Tuesday and Wednesday,
hitting an intraday low of $26.11 before finally buyers stepped
in.  The rebound has stalled near the $28 level and this may very
well be an opportunity to re-enter on a rollover below the 10-dma
($29.14).  Our stop has been lowered to just above the top of
Tuesday's intraday range and that level will become even stronger
resistance on Monday as the 20-dma drops through $30.
Conservative traders may want to consider harvesting some gains
on another dip near $26, but we're going to try to hold on for a
continued drop towards our $24-25 target.

Picked on February 29th at  $30.55
Change since picked          -2.42
Earnings Date              1/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    6.07 mln





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Cabot Microelec. - CCMP - close: 42.48 change: +0.48 stop: 44.00

The Semiconductor sector (SOX.X) finally smashed through key
support near $470 on Friday, taking the dubious honor of the
market's worst performing sector with a 3.6% loss.  Despite the
carnage, CCMP actually gained fractionally, a real sign of
relative strength.  That kind of strength obviously doesn't seem
quite right and we're confronted with the very real possibility
that the stock has finally bottomed.  Rather than wait for a
rollover, let's cut our losses here and make room for other play
candidates.  There is the possibility that CCMP is just tracing
out a bear flag pattern and a breakdown under $40 will occur
early next week.  But the relative strength should have all but
aggressive traders moving to the sidelines here.

Picked on March 10th at     $40.85
Change since picked          +1.63
Earnings Date              1/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       814 K





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Bunge Ltd - BG - close: 39.45 change: -0.06 stop: 37.99

Company Description:
Bunge Limited is an integrated, global agribusiness and food
company operating in the farm-to-consumer food chain with
worldwide distribution capabilities. Founded in 1818 and
headquartered in White Plains, New York, Bunge has 23,000
employees and locations in 30 countries. Bunge is the world's
leading oilseed processing company, the largest producer and
supplier of fertilizers to farmers in South America and the
world's leading seller of bottled vegetable oils to consumers.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
BG has been a huge winner for investors.  The stock is up 50%
from its early November '03 closing low.  Driving the stock has
been a meteoric rise in soybeans and other commodities that BG
distributes.  The company reported earnings in February of 99
cents per share.  This was 32 cents above estimates on revenues
that jumped more than 37%.  Following the announcement BG raised
its earnings guidance for the full year and the stock soared
again.

While soybeans aren't the only product that BG deals in you may
have heard that Brazil's main grain port of Paranagua has a back
log of trucks to load that is 32 miles long.  BG is a major
player in the Paranagua market.  What's amazing is that the peak
season for the soybean harvest is still a few weeks away and
Paranagua could see the line of trucks grow even further.  Last
year the line was more than 60 miles long.  It's hard to
comprehend that many trucks lined up full of soybeans (and corn).

Looking closer at BG's chart the first thing you'll notice is
that shares are very overbought.  The rally has been almost non-
stop.  Fortunately, given the market's recent weakness we
actually like the relative strength here.  That doesn't mean this
play is for everyone.  However, we do plan to use a TRIGGER at
$40.10 to open the play for us.  If and when BG trades at $40.10
we'll use a stop loss at $37.99 to limit our risk.  Our short-
term target is the $44 level.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see trigger
Gain since picked:    - 0.00
Earnings Date       04/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    512 thousand




  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Krispy Kreme Doughnut - KKD - cls: 33.06 chg: -1.15 stop: 34.41

Company Description:
Founded in 1937 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, Krispy Kreme is
a leading branded specialty retailer of premium quality
doughnuts, including the Company's signature Hot Original Glazed.
Krispy Kreme currently operates 394 stores (comprised of 363
factory stores and 31 satellites) in 44 U.S. states, Australia,
Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The markets look ready to trim a little more excess and where
else to start than a doughnut maker with a P/E of 44? KKD
recently announced earnings on March 10th and total revenues
soared 36% to 185.5 million for the quarter.  Adjusted earnings
were 19 cents compared to just 9 cents the year before.  These
are pretty amazing numbers for a fast growing company but all may
not seem as sweet as one of their hot glazed doughnuts.

For the first time in three years KKD's margins declined.  For
the quarter margins dropped 290 basis points and average weekly
sales dropped 10%.  This news had several analysts taking a
closer look at the company's performance.  Suddenly investors
have a new concern.  Is KKD frantically opening stores just to
meet their sales targets?  Considering the low-carb diet craze
that has been sweeping the nation it wouldn't be a surprise to
see doughnut sales falling.  It didn't help matters than KKD
issued lackluster earnings guidance for fiscal 2005.

The stock dropped about 10% on its earnings report and struggled
to hold the $35.00 level until the selling renewed again Thursday
and Friday this past week.  The breakdown to a new low on twice
the average volume is bad news and we think KKD will test support
at the $30.00 level soon.  Its P&F chart also reveals a sell
signal that has pierced P&F support and points to a $26.00 price
target.  We're going to initiate the play at current levels with
a stop loss at $34.41.

Annotated Chart:




Picked on March 21 at $00.00
Gain since picked:    - 0.00
Earnings Date       03/10/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    798 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Standard Pacific - SPF - cls: 55.84 chg: -0.66 stop: 54.50 *new*

We've been bullish on the home building sector for a while and
some recent articles this weekend express the same feelings from
a number of analysts.  Unfortunately, the short-term technical
picture for the group and for SPF is starting to look tired.  The
MACD indicator for SPF has recently produced a sell signal from
overbought territory and its short-term technicals are also
rolling over.  The share price has been in a sideways pennant
like consolidation, which will allow us to raise the stop loss to
$54.50.  We're not suggesting new bullish positions in SPF at
this time unless we see a strong breakout back above the $57.50-
58.00 region.  In all honesty we're planning to be stopped out at
$54.40 but we're just not willing to give up hope that the
homebuilders will continue to outperform even through more market
weakness.  Bullish traders looking for new entries should
probably be patient and look for a dip toward the $52.00-52.50
range.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on February 29 at $52.31
Gain since picked:       + 3.53
Earnings Date          02/04/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       468 thousand



---

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 41.40 change: -0.41 stop: 38.00

After its strong rebound from the 20-dma ($40.46) earlier in the
week, IGT just kept on running and on Friday morning, it looked
like a breakout attempt might be in the cards.  But the opening
spike was all she wrote, as the stock got caught up in the
weakness infecting the rest of the market and pulled back to
close back under $41.50, more than $1 off of its intraday high.
Now we'll have to see if the bulls have the conviction to make
another attempt at the highs next week.  Dips near the 20-dma
still look like solid entry opportunities, with strong support
resting down just under the $40 level.  Traders looking to enter
on strength will still need to wait for a breakout over the
$43.11 high from early March before playing.  We're maintaining a
loose stop just under the 50-dma at $38, as that average has been
solid support for months.


Picked on March 17th at     $41.82
Change since picked          -0.42
Earnings Date              4/22/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.04 mln





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Best Buy Co. - BBY - close: 47.23 change: -0.49 stop: 49.50*new*

The strength of BBY's rebound following the initial break below
$48 was a bit disconcerting, but the price action last week was
much more encouraging.  The initial bounce was quickly reversed,
and the stock spent the remainder of the week banging on the $47
support level.  With the intraday highs growing progressively
lower, BBY looks on the verge of a breakdown that should extend
at least to mild support near $46, but more likely to stronger
support near $44.  We're likely to only get one more directional
move before we need to drop the play, with earnings coming up on
March 30th.  Another failed bounce below the 10-dma ($48.70) can
be used for aggressive entries, but our preference at this point
is to enter on a break below $47.  BBY will either break down and
satisfy our expectations or bounce from the $47 level next week.
There's no need to use such a wide stop any longer, so we're
lowering our official stop to $49.50, just over the 3/12 closing
high.  If BBY breaks above that point, then we'll know for sure
that the bearish trend has been reversed.

Picked on March 10th at     $48.50
Change since picked          -1.27
Earnings Date              3/30/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    3.64 mln




---

Pharm. Resources - PRX - cls: 56.27 chng: -1.23 stop: 61.00*new*

The first break of support found buyers still trying to hold PRX
up, but yesterday's crack of the H&S neckline at $57 was
solidified by today's bearish price action.  The stock fell back
through support and actually cracked the $56 level before a
slight end-of-day bounce.  Volume continues to rise as PRX breaks
down and with the H&S neckline broken, and a fresh PnF Sell
signal, the stock looks destined to continue sliding down towards
the bullish support line at $49.  The PnF bearish price target is
currently $47, so that target does look achievable.  We can
expect possible support to be found at $55 and then again at
$52.50 on the way down.  Traders that didn't take the entry on
the initial break of support can now look to enter either on a
break below Friday's low, or even better, on a failed bounce
below the 10-dma (now at $58.96).  Lower stops to $61, just over
the 50-dma.

Picked on March 17th at     $57.83
Change since picked          -1.56
Earnings Date              2/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       699 K





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Ryder Systems - R - close: 36.55 change: -0.51 stop: 36.49

Some big swings in the Dow Transports gave us the old double-
whammy with our play in R.  Wednesday's rally was enough to push
R above resistance at $38.00 and trigger us at $38.05.  The two-
day sell-off on Thursday-Friday brought R right back down and
below its simple 50-dma.  We were stopped out on Friday when R
traded at $36.49 by a penny!

Picked on March 17 at $38.05
Gain since picked:    - 1.56
Earnings Date       02/05/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    441 thousand



---

Tyco International - TYC - close: 27.95 change: -0.56 stop: 27.25

The first sign of trouble came when TYC slipped back under the
midline of its rising channel, but the bulls held strong,
continuing to hang onto that average as tenuous support.
Recovering back to the midline of the channel by midweek, it
looked like we had another rally attempt on our hands.  But that
potential was negated on Friday, with the stock smashing back
down into the lower half of the channel and closing at its low of
the day, below the 50-dma again.  TYC looks headed back to the
bottom of its channel to find support and that's more risk than
we're prepared to take.  Our stop hasn't been hit yet, but this
looks like a good opportunity to cut our losses before our stop
does it for us.

Picked on February 29th at  $28.57
Change since picked          -0.62
Earnings Date              2/03/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    8.67 mln





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Human Genome - HGSI - cls: 12.07 chng: +0.07 stop: 13.20*new*

We knew there was the potential for support to be found near the
$11.50 level, as that was where HGSI found support back in late
November.  Sure enough, the bulls stepped in at that level on
Tuesday, but the buying didn't look very convincing.  Thursday's
bounce was another matter altogether though, as HGSI gapped down
to support and then just as quickly bounced back.  Obviously, the
stock didn't make much upward progress on Friday with the whole
market under pressure, but it is a bit disconcerting that the
stock actually gained ground in such a weak environment.  That
said, HGSI will run into stiff resistance in the vicinity of the
20-dma ($12.51), as it is also the site of historical resistance
(broken support).  That's where we want to look for new entries
on a rollover.  Traders looking for a breakdown entry have their
action point clearly defined.  A break below $11.50 should do the
trick and get HGSI moving towards next support near $10.  Lower
stops to $13.20, just over the 50-dma.

Picked on March 14th at     $12.34
Change since picked          -0.27
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =    1.40 mln





=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.






PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 03-21-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of March 22, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of March 22nd
==========================================

TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             92.03    -0.14
CVX     Chevrontexaco Corp         89.13    -0.62
COP     Conocophillips             69.98    -0.37
MET     Metlife Inc                35.27    -0.38
PRU     Prudential Financial Inc   46.08    -0.92
PGR     Progressive Corp           88.79    +1.38


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

None


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

FO      Fortune Brands Inc         75.74    +0.18
SII     Smith Internat Inc         54.04    -0.67
DASTY   Dassault Systems Sa (ADR)  40.74    +0.75
KMRT    Kmart Holding Corp         37.85    +0.79
CCJ     Cameco Corp                48.26    -0.24
CPG     Chelsea Property Grp Inc   61.89    +0.21


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MDT     Medtronic Inc              47.50    -0.55
CAKE    Cheesecake Factory Inc     45.01    -0.05
MLHR    Mherman Miller Inc         26.24    -0.52
WGO     Winnebago Industries Inc   30.02    +0.11


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

None


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

CCL    Crnvl Corp & Crnvl    Mon, Mar 22  -----N/A-----       0.22
CBB    Cincinnati Bell Inc.  Mon, Mar 22  -----N/A-----       0.09
SKIL   SkillSoft Corporation Mon, Mar 22  After the Bell      0.04
WAG    Walgreen              Mon, Mar 22  -----N/A-----       0.42
WOS    Wolseley              Mon, Mar 22  -----N/A-----        N/A


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ARRO   Arrow International   Tue, Mar 23  -----N/A-----       0.33
FDO    Family Dollar         Tue, Mar 23  -----N/A-----       0.46
GS     Goldman Sachs         Tue, Mar 23  Before the Bell     1.61
MKC    McCormick & Company   Tue, Mar 23  Before the Bell     0.27
RHAT   Red Hat, Inc.         Tue, Mar 23  After the Bell      0.03


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

RIO    Companhia Vale Rio    Wed, Mar 24  After the Bell      1.17
LNR    LNR Property          Wed, Mar 24  -----N/A-----       0.77
SIGY   Signet Group          Wed, Mar 24  Before the Bell      N/A
SONC   Sonic Corp.           Wed, Mar 24  After the Bell      0.23
SCM    Swisscom AG           Wed, Mar 24  Before the Bell      N/A
TKA    Telekom Austria AG    Wed, Mar 24  Before the Bell      N/A


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

BGO    Bema Gold             Thu, Mar 25  After the Bell     -0.01
COGN   Cognos                Thu, Mar 25  After the Bell      0.35
CAG    ConAgra Foods, Inc.   Thu, Mar 25  Before the Bell     0.38
VIP    Vimpel Communications Thu, Mar 25  -----N/A-----        N/A


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

DISH   EchoStar Comm Corp.   Fri, Mar 26  Before the Bell     0.09
IMI    SanPaolo IMI SpA      Fri, Mar 26  -----N/A-----        N/A


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

DCI     Donaldson Company, Inc    2:1      Mar  19th   Mar  22nd
NIHD    NII Holdings, Inc         3:1      Mar  22nd   Mar  23rd
ASFI    Asta Funding Inc          2:1      Mar  23rd   Mar  24th
COCO    Corinthian Colleges Inc   2:1      Mar  23rd   Mar  24th
RJF     Raymond James Financial   3:2      Mar  24th   Mar  25th
AMSG    AmSurg Corp               3:2      Mar  24th   Mar  25th
SCHN    Schnitzer Steel Ind, Inc  3:2      Mar  25th   Mar  26th
WGA     Wells-Gardner Elect Corp 21:20     Mar  26th   Mar  29th
HOV     Hovnanian Ent, Inc        2:1      Mar  26th   Mar  29th
MVL     Marvel Enterprises        3:2      Mar  26th   Mar  29th
APH     Amphenol Corp             2:1      Mar  29th   Mar  30th
XTEX    Crsstx nrg co, L.P.       3:2      Mar  29th   Mar  30th
GGG     Graco Inc                 3:2      Mar  30th   Mar  31st
IDSA    Industrial Services of    3:2      Mar  30th   Mar  31st
PHX     Panhandle Royalty Co      2:1      Apr   1st   Apr   2nd
TACT    TransAct Technologies Inc 3:2      Apr   2nd   Apr   5th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

There are a lot of Fed heads speaking this week on the economy
should it could keep the market hopping.  We're still in the
middle of pre-announcement season and most of this week's
economic reports come out Weds-Thursday-Friday.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 03/22/04
----------------
Federal Reserve's Moskow speaks in Chicago

-----------------
Tuesday, 03/23/04
-----------------
Federal Reserve's Stern speaks in New Orleans


-------------------
Wednesday, 03/24/04
-------------------
Durable Orders (BB)        Feb  Forecast:    1.2%  Previous:    -2.3%
New Home Sales (DM)        Feb  Forecast:   1100K  Previous:    1106K
Federal Reserve's Guynn speaks in Tennessee
Federal Reserve's Parry speaks in Portland
Federal Reserve's Minehan speaks in New York

------------------
Thursday, 03/25/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      03/20  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     336K
GDP-Final (BB)              Q4  Forecast:    4.1%  Previous:     4.1%
Chain Deflator-Final (BB)   Q4  Forecast:    1.2%  Previous:     1.2%
Help-Wanted Index (DM)     Feb  Forecast:      39  Previous:       38
Existing Home Sales (DM)   Feb  Forecast:   6.20M  Previous:    6.04M


----------------
Friday, 03/26/04
----------------
Personal Income (BB)       Feb  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.2%
Personal Spending (BB)     Feb  Forecast:    0.5%  Previous:     0.4%
Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM)   Mar  Forecast:    94.0  Previous:     94.1

-Amendment to the Economic Calendar-
The Feds released the January PPI data last week but have not
yet announced when the February PPI data will be released.

PPI (NA)         Date TBA  Feb  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.6%
Core PPI (NA)    Date TBA  Feb  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.3%



Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives