PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 03-21-2004 section 1 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Don't Look Now! Market Sentiment: Strength Hard to Find Watch List: WMAR, WOR, FMC, GLW ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= WE 03-19 WE 03-12 WE 03-05 WE 02-27 DOW 10186.60 - 53.48 10240.1 -355.47 10595.5 + 11.63 - 35.11 Nasdaq 1940.47 - 44.26 1984.73 - 62.90 2047.63 + 17.81 - 8.11 S&P-100 543.68 - 6.24 549.92 - 18.53 568.45 + 3.91 - 0.33 S&P-500 1109.74 - 10.83 1120.57 - 36.29 1156.86 + 11.91 + 0.84 W5000 10852.98 -115.20 10968.2 -346.24 11314.4 +141.50 + 29.34 SOX 463.35 - 21.75 485.10 - 19.15 504.25 + 1.99 - 7.99 RUT 570.74 - 12.10 582.84 - 16.70 599.54 + 13.98 + 5.67 TRAN 2786.83 - 76.26 2863.09 - 29.98 2893.07 - 9.12 + 10.01 VIX 19.15 + 0.85 18.30 + 3.82 14.48 - 0.09 - 1.47 VXO 19.16 + 0.44 18.72 + 3.92 14.80 + 0.04 - 1.49 VXN 25.99 + 0.69 25.30 + 3.22 22.08 - 0.79 - 1.25 TRIN 1.93 0.44 1.40 1.26 Put/Call 1.03 1.05 0.79 0.73 WE = week ending ================================================================= =========================== Market Wrap =========================== Don't Look Now! by Jim Brown While the talking heads were focused on the battle in Pakistan and the market analysts were talking about option expiration and S&P rebalancing the SOX quietly headed south. As if escaping under the cover of al Qaeda news the semi stocks ignored several upgrades and a strong book-to-bill report to break support at 475 and break the back of the market as well. There were no material economic reports on Friday but I doubt it would have mattered. The market makers managed to pin the S&P at resistance before the open and once the index options were settled the ugly began. We traded flat on very low volume until 2:30 with everyone wondering which forces would control our fate. There was no material news out of Pakistan and the news we did get seemed to point to a longer resolution than everyone first thought. It could be days before the military can overcome the resistance and sort through the rubble. They were ordering up a couple more regiments to aid in the battle. While we waited there was a battle underway in the markets with the bulls and bears trading control several times during the day. The battle fought to a draw about 1:PM and the waiting for end of day option volatility began. At a little after 2:30 Art Cashin reminded viewers on CNBC that the S&P was being rebalanced at the close and within five minutes the bottom fell out of the S&P. The rebalancing was due to the +$3.8B in new stock being issued by GE. This increase in market cap meant index fund managers had to buy more GE and sell small amounts of the 499 other stocks in the S&P. Between Art's reminder at 2:30 and the close the S&P lost -10 points. The high/low range before that had been five points for the entire day and centered around 1120. We closed at 1110. Ironically GE fell like a rock in the last hour despite the doubling of shares traded for the day in the last hour. GE went from 19M to just over 40M in the last hour. One analyst suggested the hedge funds had accumulated shares to sell into the expected bounce while other funds were hoping for the bounce to unload shares of what has been an under performer. With funds seeing a net -$1.5B outflow of cash for the week ended on Wednesday they may have been targeting the expected rebalancing bounce to raise cash. Unfortunately the joke was on everyone it appears as far more sellers appeared than buyers. The net result was net selling on the S&P without any compensating bounce in GE. Obviously option expiration may have had some impact in the end of day market direction but that did not prevent some serious confusion at the close. With the potential for a resolution in Pakistan over the weekend you would not have expected anyone to hold shorts over the weekend. Since we did go down and go down sharply it would suggest there was some serious sell side action where traders were simply getting out of the market. This is disturbing to the overall sentiment picture. I kept watching the Russell all day and it was the strongest of all the indexes and held at the high end of its range. At least it held until 3:PM. About 15 min after the S&P began to implode the Russell followed suit. Whether it was the copycat syndrome where strong selling in one index begets selling in others OR small cap bears combined with options expiration triggered stops. Small cap mutual funds saw outflows of -$1B in the week ended Wednesday. What we should have been watching more closely was the SOX. The index gapped down on a strong book-to-bill number. That should have been a clue. The 1.14 number was lower than the prior number of 1.19 but only because shipments grew much faster than orders. Orders grew +6.5% for the month and shipments +11%. No weakness there and orders have been accelerating since June-2003. In fact orders are at a three year high. It did not seem to matter to the semi sellers. The drop was blamed on weak comments from Taiwan Semi, the worlds largest contract foundry. The chairman of TSM said he expects spending on new plants and equipment to fall by as much as 50% next year. He expects new plants being built in China to lead to over-capacity. He also said he expected global semi growth to slow to 10% in 2005 from 26% in 2004. TSM just doubled its capex budget to $2 billion last October and the announcement they were cutting it back to $1B was a shock to analysts. It also did not help to have an assassination attempt on the president and vice president of Taiwan on Friday. Obviously the news was a shock to traders as well. The SOX tried to rise around lunch time as dip buyers bought support at 473 once again but the rebound attempt was weak. A climax spike to 479 at 11:40 was the peak and the downhill slide began immediately and accelerated into the close. The SOX ended up losing -17, -3.6% for the day. The worst of the damage was the failure at support. For the last eight days the SOX has held at the 473-475 level despite some serious selling in techs. This was the line in the sand launch point for any potential April earnings run. There will be no earnings run if the SOX does not participate and after Friday's action I now have serious doubts. If we back up and look at the market from a broader perspective we can watch the current weakness as it unfolds. Using the Dow as a starting point we had a very nice run that began last year. The spurt into January pushed the index to 10705 on Jan-26th and we spent the next six weeks trying to break that high. Once it became apparent the rally was tired everyone started expecting a profit taking correction. We have seen that over the last two weeks. The bad news is the lack of the expected rebound. The difference between a profit taking correction of -5% to -10% and the beginning of a trend change is the lack of a rebound. We are at the point where that rebound must occur or we are going to retest the corrections lows and I am not optimistic that retest will hold. Where we would normally be seeing some bargain hunting in various stocks after a week at the market lows there is little buying interest. Intel for instance closed at $26.50 and a seven month low. MSFT closed at $24.63 and a ten-month low. The damage is not limited to techs. PFE, the second largest company by market cap, closed at 33.95 and a four month low. Others at or near multi month lows include Dow components HPQ, MRK, UTX, GM and JNJ. About the only stocks holding the high ground are the materials stocks and the home builders. The dip that looked like a normal correction at first is starting to look like just a consolidation pause before another dip. Obviously we will not know that until we actually break support at 10000/1900 but the outlook based on the indexes is far from positive. But what about the economy? Isn't it growing? Yes, from all accounts it is actually picking up speed. Commodity prices are continuing to spike with a price curve that looks like the Nasdaq during the Internet bubble. All the manufacturers are scrambling for raw materials with things like copper and steel seeing shortages in many areas. This is due to the global expansion not just the U.S. economy. Earnings are continuing to climb with First Call quoting 15.9% as of Friday for Q1 earnings. It was estimated at 13.4% at the end of January. Warnings have been almost nonexistent. Productivity is still climbing, interest rates are very low and the goldilocks economy appears to be returning. Unfortunately where you and I think this should be a good reason for stocks to be moving up instead of down there is ample evidence that economic prosperity does not necessarily translate into a strong stock market. Normally, yes but as I have explained many times in the past, the market is always looking 6-9 months into the future. Over the last couple weeks I have discussed the potential for weakness after the April earnings cycle due to the election and the potential for negative expectations. I have mentioned numerous times that earnings comparisons after the April cycle will become much more difficult given the slow economic growth. None of this is news to anyone. What I think helped change the picture was the Madrid bombing. Those that were planning on selling in May and going away have accelerated their timetable with the al Qaeda threat returning. Also, changing the outlook was the sudden emergence of John Kerry as a possible winner. Suddenly the administrative and economic picture became more cloudy. Tax cuts are no longer guaranteed and a more restrictive period may be ahead. Oil prices are continuing to rise and closed over $38 on Friday. The $40 level has been the top for 20 years. The last two times it touched that level were before the 1991 Desert Storm and again just before the Iraq war last spring. Already economists are starting to warn that oil prices are going to impact profits as well as consumer spending. A break over $40 could have a very serious impact. Enough of this negativity. You and I may not want to consider it but we do need to look at the worst case in the markets. The best case would be a retest of the lows and a drop all the way to 10000/1900 just to get it over with then a rebound into April earnings. I do not see any potential for moving back to the highs but we could see a significant rebound from our present levels. This bullish case is built on and depends on no material earnings warnings over the next couple weeks, no new terrorist attacks and positive cash flow into funds. It makes no difference what you and I think about economic and market direction if funds continue to suffer negative cash flow. That is the true voting booth for the stock prices. The bearish case assumes there is more wrong with the market picture than what we see on the surface. The parade of analysts on stock TV are pounding the table to buy the dip and investors are taking money out of the market. Do you see something wrong with this picture? I know from experience that trying to out think the market is an exercise in futility. Once you get a couple turns correctly and start believing you know what is going to happen the market does the opposite. That means we always have to have an alternate plan and that plan is to trade the trend. That trend may have changed on Friday with the collapse of the SOX. I still want to hold on to my hope for one more rebound into April but I am not going to bet money on it until it happens. I want you to do something for me. Don't think about Donald Trump's hair. I told you not to do it but I bet an image of the world famous comb over just jumped into your consciousness. I did that to prove a point. Now look at the charts below without any bias. I have removed the names and prices to help. The black line is the 100 dma. What do you see? Which charts would you buy? Remember, no bias. Chart 1 Chart 2 Chart 3 Chart 4 Chart 5 Chart 6 Chart 7 If all those charts represented the health of the market would you give it a passing grade? Would your bias be positive or negative? Obviously by shortening the time frame I have taken away all the long term bias that most charts would give the casual investor. I admit I am very easily swayed by past events and past trends. We all are. We tend to unconsciously subscribe to the theory that a "body in motion tends to remain in motion" and looking at the markets over the past year they have definitely been in upward motion. Part of our bias comes from expecting things to continue doing what they have been doing. If you had to make an investment decision on Monday on those charts above would it be to buy, sell or remain on the sidelines? The first chart is easy because it is a three-month chart of the Nasdaq. Would you buy that chart? I would probably pass. Most people if asked on the street would probably say the Nasdaq has been in a bullish uptrend. Has it? You might be surprised to know that the Nasdaq has only had one up week out of the last nine and only three up weeks this year. Uptrend? Yes, from March to January, not from January through March. The Nasdaq closed down -22 points at 1940 and seems a sure bet to test 1900 next week. Fortunately for the Nasdaq the 200dma is rapidly approaching that same level and techs are normally bought at that level. The NDX closed below 1400 on Friday and the QQQ traded three times its normal volume in the last hour. I look for both to test their 200dma as well. Nasdaq Chart - Daily NDX Chart - Daily The second chart is the SOX. The SOX peaked at 560 and the high of the year on January-12th. There has been literally dozens of semi upgrades since then and all to no avail. I shortened the timeframe on the chart to illustrate a point. If you expand the time frame you can always find a critical point to support your trend in motion stays in motion theory. But if you look at the shorter term trend the outlook is much different. Using the longer term chart below and the support break on Friday I would say our risk is to a much lower level. KLAC is the largest weighted stock in the SOX at 10% and it broke major support and fell -2.50 on Friday. It is trading at a five month low and well above its next support level. We could easily see another -$5 drop in KLAC. AMAT also broke support and looks very weak. The SOX closed exactly on the 200dma. SOX Chart - Daily KLAC Chart - Daily AMAT Chart Chart three was the Dow and by itself may not suggest a strong negative bias but a definite change in trend. The trend that changed was the consolidation trend. The Dow peak was on Feb-11th with successive lower highs into the middle of March. There was a climax high on Feb-19th where a higher high was reached but it quickly retraced to a lower low the next day. Everyone continued to pin their hopes on a recovery to higher highs on the fact that we were not making lower lows. We were simply trading in a consolidation range with 10400 on the bottom and as long as that range held we bought the dips and sold the tops with the expectation that a higher move was coming once all the excess was worked off. The justification for that thought process was the uptrending support line from December. Once that support broke the alarms went off and support at 10400 became the critical level to watch. Now that all pretenses of support including the 100dma have been broken there is no real support below us until we hit the 9600-9800 level. 10000 is round number psychological support but there is no recent technical basis. Chart four was Intel. If Intel is the proxy for the semi sector and techs in general then what does the chart below suggest will happen. The congestion support at $27-29 barely slowed its decent and the next likely target is $24. Intel has broken all reasonable support and is accelerating to the downside. Do not expect the Nasdaq to recover until Intel finds a bottom. Intel Chart - Daily Chart five was GE and as the proxy for manufacturing, the economy and the market it is not painting a positive picture. It is fighting to stay above $30 but after closing below the 200dma and the unexpected drop on the S&P rebalancing it does not look promising. The next real support for GE is $28 and I would be surprised if we saw any institution buying before that level. Once a stock breaks the 200dma it loses a lot of institutional support. That is normally a sell signal for funds. This could have added to the volume at the close on Friday. GE Chart - Daily Chart six was the S&P-500 and this is the only real chart that suggests we may still have a chance at a rebound. The uptrend support and the 100dma are just over 1100 and that round number support is critical for this market. The S&P is a much broader indicator of market health than the Dow and tech stocks make up 27% of the index. I have explained in recent articles that the market top coincided exactly with the 50% retracement of the S&P from the market top in 2000 to the market low in 2002. If the uptrend support does break the next logical support level is the 38% retracement at 1067 followed by much stronger support at 1000. Extrapolating an S&P drop to 1000 projects a much lower Dow and Nasdaq and I am not trying to make any case for that today. I am only exploring the worst case support levels. S&P-500 Chart - Daily Chart seven was the Russell. I have been a fan of the Russell for some time and it has influenced my bullish bias considerably. Unfortunately the Russell is struggling. The uptrend support has been broken and it is barely above the 100dma. At this point I think we are looking at a clear double top and that average is about to break. The Russell has rebounded +85% in the last year and came very close to matching its all time closing high from 2000. It is the only index to come even close to recovering all of its losses. The risk now is that funds with huge gains from this rebound will see the break of the 100dma as confirmation that the rally is over and begin closing positions at a faster rate. You can see the battle being waged between the average and the uptrend support where we have seen seven days of long candles. If support eventually fails then we could be faced with a standard retracement of the gains. A -38% retracement would be almost exactly 500. Obviously a -70 point drop in the Russell would be a major hit and would be very ugly. Russell Chart - Daily I did not go through this exercise just to say that the market is going lower. I only wanted to demonstrate that the trend had changed and despite positive economics and earnings we could easily go lower. We need to consider both directions when we are researching a potential position. The optimist view of the charts above would be looking for a rebound from 10000/1900 with the S&P holding 1100. The drop at the close left the S&P at 1109, the Dow at 10186 and the Nasdaq at 1940. Obviously the numbers do not match. The S&P normally drops one point for every ten Dow points. That is a rough average but close. The Nasdaq equivalent is about three points. The S&P is the most widely used index for measuring the market and is seen as the benchmark. Using the SPX at 1109 this suggests a drop to 1100 would put the Dow around 10100 and the Nasdaq at 1910. That would be a new low for the Nasdaq by -17 points but would put the Dow right on 10100 and its support lows from this week. The term support for Dow 10000-10100 is used loosely. There is no real technical support at those levels, only emotional. A -25% retracement of the March bottom to Feb top would be 9919 and 9867 from the Oct 2002 bottom to top. If I had to watch only one thing next week I would watch these levels. SPX 1100, Dow 10100 and Nasdaq 1900. If there is any chance for an earnings rebound into April those levels must hold because a support break there would cause too much technical damage. (As if we have not seen enough already) Nobody knows what really caused the market drop at Friday's close. Expiration, rebalancing, profit taking or fear of weekend news events. Nobody knows what will happen at the open on Monday. Did they find Osama or his lieutenant? Did we trip some magic buy level at the close? I personally would like to believe the market will rebound at last ditch support but we have had a lot of those levels broken day after day recently. Keene and Keith, both Elliott Wave followers in the Futures Monitor, are expecting one more wave up to SPX 1138, Dow 10400. I would like to believe that but the semiconductor implosion on Friday bothers me. I have been telling you to watch for a break of 475 as the confirmation for a trend change and Friday's 463 close sure does qualify. However, if you are grabbing at straws today that is also exactly the 200dma for the SOX. Tech stocks have a strange way of rebounding at those levels but I would not be placing bets on this one. All eyes will be on the SOX on Monday and a break of the 200dma could seal our fate. I am sure I have totally confused everyone with my various scenarios but the bottom line is we are at a crossroad. If we break those support levels (1100/10100/1400) there will be no bulls left in the corral. Actually there were no bids on Friday so maybe they already left. Despite all the option expiration and S&P rebalancing volume we only managed to trade 3.6B shares across all markets. Very paltry. Down volume was 3.5:1 over up volume. There are no economic reports on Monday or Tuesday so nothing to stir up the markets. Choose your direction carefully next week and follow the trend. Sounds like a corny clichi but betting against could be expensive. Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively! Jim Brown ================================================ Market Sentiment ================================================ Strength Hard to Find - J. Brown Ouch! Friday was another rough day for the markets. Investors were being hit left and right with non-market events. Early Friday there were reports that police were rushing to Washington D.C. schools due to a bomb threat. The current Taiwan President and his Vice President were both shot while campaigning ahead of Saturday's general election all while China was performing military maneuvers off their coast. Thankfully both men were okay. Meanwhile violence in Baghdad continued to heat up as we approached the 1-year anniversary for last year's Iraq war. On top of it all was news of a heated battle on the outskirts of Pakistan between the Pakistan military and what some reports described as hundreds of heavily armed men believed to be Al Queda supporters defending Osama's right hand man. Yes, it was a rough day and through it all traders had to deal with a quadruple options and futures expiration and an S&P 500 rebalancing. The only sector to close the session positive was the XAU gold & silver index fueled by a small gain in gold to $412.70 an ounce. Seems like widespread market declines have become rather popular lately. Market internals were naturally bearish with losers outnumbering advancers almost 18 to 10 on the NYSE and 18 to 12 on the NASDAQ. Down volume overpowered up volume 3-to-1 on both exchanges. The markets have certainly turned defensive but traditional safe haven stocks aren't performing very well. That may be misleading. Gold stocks are doing okay and healthcare stocks are out performing by falling less than the rest of the market. Unfortunately drug stocks, a traditional safe haven, are getting punished. Searching for pockets of strength was rather disappointing. Nearly ever sector index I looked at aside from the XAU was breaking down toward new relative lows or rolling over from this week's bounce. Checking out the COT data below this report revealed that the commercial traders (a.k.a. "smart money) had turned pretty bearish on the S&P in the e-mini contracts. Oddly enough they also turned more bullish on the Nasdaq-100 (NDX). Could they be expecting a bounce? Right now the real concern is the semiconductor sector. The SOX tends to lead the NASDAQ up or down and Friday's 3.6% drop fell straight to its 200-dma. I suspect we may see an oversold bounce before it rolls over again but if it doesn't the NASDAQ could follow it lower rather quickly. We might see a bounce on Monday if the Pakistan military prevails and we do find some high-ranking terrorists but that may only be a temporary reprieve. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 7929 Current : 10186 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10272 50-dma: 10519 200-dma: 9794 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 843 Current : 1109 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1121 50-dma: 1137 200-dma: 1053 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1014 Current : 1398 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1418 50-dma: 1484 200-dma: 1378 ----------------------------------------------------------------- The volatility indices have pulled back from their recent highs but they still appear to be in breakout mode and that's generally bearish for the markets. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.15 +0.62 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 19.16 +0.54 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 25.99 +1.41 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 1.03 853,502 881,695 Equity Only 0.89 677,758 599,883 OEX 1.03 59,746 61,299 QQQ 2.23 55,512 123,696 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 71.8 + 0 Bull Correction NASDAQ-100 44.0 + 1 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 80.0 + 0 Bull Correction S&P 500 77.2 + 0 Bull Correction S&P 100 85.0 + 0 Bull Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.46 10-dma: 1.70 21-dma: 1.40 55-dma: 1.14 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1018 1171 Decliners 1774 1853 New Highs 119 81 New Lows 11 15 Up Volume 386M 390M Down Vol. 1280M 1195M Total Vol. 1696M 1615M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/16/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Hmm... there's been a lot of action in the commercial traders' positions the last few weeks. It's almost like they can't decide what direction to go. The latest data shows them switching from net bearish to net bullish again. Small traders are more consistent and remain net bullish although less so than recent weeks. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/24/04 417,490 416,502 988 0.0% 03/02/04 411,932 418,936 (7,004) (0.1%) 03/09/04 418,394 433,237 (14,843) (1.7%) 03/16/04 454,635 449,505 5,130 0.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 141,559 85,171 56,388 24.9% 03/02/04 148,383 84,135 64,248 27.6% 03/09/04 155,947 88,317 67,630 27.7% 03/16/04 159,054 115,023 44,031 25.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Whoa! Commercial traders have turned very bearish on the S&P e-mini's. Contract volume in both longs and shorts have soared but they bought almost 90K new shorts pushing bearish sentiment to new levels not seen in weeks. Small traders also increased their positions but remain bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/24/04 320,425 387,255 (66,830) ( 9.4%) 03/02/04 344,805 395,112 (50,307) ( 6.8%) 03/09/04 431,623 485,268 (53,645) ( 5.9%) 03/16/04 472,809 574,241 (101,432) ( 9.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 129,894 63,524 66,370 34.3% 03/02/04 119,382 67,453 51,929 27.8% 03/09/04 135,233 76,558 58,675 27.7% 03/16/04 192,136 96,691 95,445 33.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders are continuing this bullish trend and hit another new high in bullish sentiment. Is everyone just buying the dip? Small traders may have taken notice as they nearly doubled their number of long contracts but then the more than doubled their short contracts. At least the brokers are making some money on commissions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 47,266 40,452 6,814 7.8% 03/02/04 49,959 41,059 8,900 9.8% 03/09/04 57,368 46,082 11,286 10.9% 03/16/04 68,285 54,899 13,386 10.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 13,386 - 03/16/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 12,388 7,310 5,078 25.8% 03/02/04 11,605 7,128 4,477 23.9% 03/09/04 15,533 8,070 7,463 31.6% 03/16/04 27,859 18,333 9,526 20.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Not too much change here for the commercial traders although they've become significantly less bullish than recent weeks. Small traders are moving the other direction and becoming less bearish! Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 27,176 13,918 13,258 32.3% 03/02/04 27,594 14,166 13,428 32.2% 03/09/04 26,867 12,845 14,022 35.3% 03/16/04 32,317 17,514 14,803 29.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 6,509 14,919 (8,410) (39.2%) 03/02/04 6,898 15,874 (8,976) (39.4%) 03/09/04 7,053 19,159 (12,106) (46.2%) 03/16/04 10,002 20,970 (10,968) (35.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- West Marine - WMAR - close: 30.21 change: -0.40 WHAT TO WATCH: WMAR is presenting us with another buy the dip or short the breakdown opportunity. The stock has been climbing in a very steady channel for months. The bottom of the channel and the bullish entry point of choice is a dip to the 30-dma or the 40-dma. Since the stock closed under its 30-dma on Friday bulls will be looking for support at its 40-dma currently at $29.75. A breakdown here suggests a change in trend so bears will be looking for weakness with an eye on the $25.00 level if they're patient. --- Worthington Industries - WOR - close: 18.37 change: +0.29 WHAT TO WATCH: Metal and steel stocks were one of the few industries trading higher on Friday. Actually shares of WOR have turned in a very positive week. WOR broke out above resistance at $18.00-18.25 during a three-day high-volume rally. Bulls might want to watch it for a dip and bounce from the $18.00 mark again. Target the $20.00 level. --- F M C Corp - FMC - close: 37.30 change: -0.16 WHAT TO WATCH: FMC has been consistently bouncing from its 40-dma and 50-dma for the last several months. Shares have once again pulled back to this technical support so bulls should be watching for signs of a bounce. A move over $37.75 or $38.25 might be an early signal to go long although the $40.00 mark is short-term resistance. Should support actually fail then bears might want to consider positions on a breakdown below the next level of support at $35.00. --- Corning Inc - GLW - close: 10.57 change: -0.31 WHAT TO WATCH: GLW consistently bounced from its rising trendline of support for over a year. That trendline broke down several days ago and now the stock is trying to find support at its simple 200-dma. Coincidentally the 200-dma is near the $10.00 mark. Bears can watch this level for another breakdown and short it with a target near the $8.50-8.25 region. Conversely, if GLW can build a base here bulls might want to look for a bounce but keep in mind old support at $12.00 is now new resistance. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- BVN $26.78 +0.75 - Mining stocks were one of the few pockets of strength on Friday. This is a Brazilian miner that has broken its trend of lower highs. STN $40.80 +1.06 - Casino stocks have been strongly lately and STN looks like a great relative strength play just be sure to use a tight stop maybe near the $38.50 level. ATYT $14.27 -0.29 - Tech stocks have been taking a beating and ATYT has pulled back to support at the $14.00 level underpinned by its 200-dma. There is additional support near $13.50 but a breakdown under $14.00 looks like bad news. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 03-21-2004 section 2 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Tech Stocks New Bearish Plays: RFMD Bearish Play Updates: VRTS Closed Bearish Plays: CCMP Active Trader (Non-tech) New Bullish Plays: BG New Bearish Plays: KKD Bullish Play Updates: SPF, IGT Bearish Play Updates: BBY, PRX Closed Bullish Plays: R, TYC High Risk/Reward Bearish Play Updates: HGSI ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== ========= NEW PLAYS ========= ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- RF Micro Devices - RFMD - close: 8.24 change: -0.45 stop: 9.00 Company Description: RF Micro Devices Inc., an ISO 9001- and ISO 14001-certified manufacturer, designs, develops, manufactures and markets proprietary RFICs primarily for wireless communications products and applications such as cellular and PCS phones, base stations, WLANs and cable television modems. The company offers a broad array of products -- including amplifiers, mixers, modulators/demodulators, and single-chip receivers, transmitters and transceivers -- representing a substantial majority of the RFICs required in wireless subscriber equipment. The company's goal is to be the premier supplier of low-cost, high-performance integrated circuits and solutions for applications that enable wireless connectivity. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: No doubt you've noticed the weakness in the chip sector these days. The SOX dropped 3.6% on Friday and almost broke through its 200-dma. The heavy selling prompted RFMD to breakthrough key support at the $8.50 level after weeks of consolidation. It didn't help that RFMD had already broken its simple 200-dma and had been fighting with resistance at $9.00 all week. We're adding RFMD to the bearish tech-stock play list due to its technical breakdown and the weakness in the SOX. Should the selling continue then RFMD is probably headed for a test of support in the $7.00 range. Although if you look at its bearish P&F chart you'll see that P&F support is at $6.00 and its P&F target is at $4.50. Potentially souring investor sentiment are recent rumors that RFMD might be a potential buyer in some industry consolidation and normally the buyer's stock goes down even it the move is helpful longer-term. Keep in mind that stocks and indices tend to bounce when they first touch their 200-dma so the SOX could bounce next week. That might give readers a chance to look for bearish entry points on a failed rally under the $8.50 level in RFMD (or under $9.00). Annotated Chart: Picked on March 21 at $ 8.24 Gain since picked: - 0.00 Earnings Date 04/20/04 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume: 11.4 million ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Veritas Software -VRTS - close: 28.13 change: -0.14 stop: 30.05 Investors were rattled on Tuesday, when VRTS announced that they would have to restate their financial results for the past 3 years and that they would fail to file its 2003 annual report with the SEC on time. With that admission, the stock is in danger of delisting and since currently out of compliance, their symbol has been changed to VRTSE. The company promises that it will be back in compliance well before a delisting action would have to be taken by the exchange, but investors didn't like the news one bit. VRTSE slammed lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, hitting an intraday low of $26.11 before finally buyers stepped in. The rebound has stalled near the $28 level and this may very well be an opportunity to re-enter on a rollover below the 10-dma ($29.14). Our stop has been lowered to just above the top of Tuesday's intraday range and that level will become even stronger resistance on Monday as the 20-dma drops through $30. Conservative traders may want to consider harvesting some gains on another dip near $26, but we're going to try to hold on for a continued drop towards our $24-25 target. Picked on February 29th at $30.55 Change since picked -2.42 Earnings Date 1/28/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 6.07 mln ============ CLOSED PLAYS ============ -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Cabot Microelec. - CCMP - close: 42.48 change: +0.48 stop: 44.00 The Semiconductor sector (SOX.X) finally smashed through key support near $470 on Friday, taking the dubious honor of the market's worst performing sector with a 3.6% loss. Despite the carnage, CCMP actually gained fractionally, a real sign of relative strength. That kind of strength obviously doesn't seem quite right and we're confronted with the very real possibility that the stock has finally bottomed. Rather than wait for a rollover, let's cut our losses here and make room for other play candidates. There is the possibility that CCMP is just tracing out a bear flag pattern and a breakdown under $40 will occur early next week. But the relative strength should have all but aggressive traders moving to the sidelines here. Picked on March 10th at $40.85 Change since picked +1.63 Earnings Date 1/22/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 814 K ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ========= NEW PLAYS ========= ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Bunge Ltd - BG - close: 39.45 change: -0.06 stop: 37.99 Company Description: Bunge Limited is an integrated, global agribusiness and food company operating in the farm-to-consumer food chain with worldwide distribution capabilities. Founded in 1818 and headquartered in White Plains, New York, Bunge has 23,000 employees and locations in 30 countries. Bunge is the world's leading oilseed processing company, the largest producer and supplier of fertilizers to farmers in South America and the world's leading seller of bottled vegetable oils to consumers. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: BG has been a huge winner for investors. The stock is up 50% from its early November '03 closing low. Driving the stock has been a meteoric rise in soybeans and other commodities that BG distributes. The company reported earnings in February of 99 cents per share. This was 32 cents above estimates on revenues that jumped more than 37%. Following the announcement BG raised its earnings guidance for the full year and the stock soared again. While soybeans aren't the only product that BG deals in you may have heard that Brazil's main grain port of Paranagua has a back log of trucks to load that is 32 miles long. BG is a major player in the Paranagua market. What's amazing is that the peak season for the soybean harvest is still a few weeks away and Paranagua could see the line of trucks grow even further. Last year the line was more than 60 miles long. It's hard to comprehend that many trucks lined up full of soybeans (and corn). Looking closer at BG's chart the first thing you'll notice is that shares are very overbought. The rally has been almost non- stop. Fortunately, given the market's recent weakness we actually like the relative strength here. That doesn't mean this play is for everyone. However, we do plan to use a TRIGGER at $40.10 to open the play for us. If and when BG trades at $40.10 we'll use a stop loss at $37.99 to limit our risk. Our short- term target is the $44 level. Annotated Chart: Picked on March xx at $xx.xx <-- see trigger Gain since picked: - 0.00 Earnings Date 04/29/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 512 thousand ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Krispy Kreme Doughnut - KKD - cls: 33.06 chg: -1.15 stop: 34.41 Company Description: Founded in 1937 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, Krispy Kreme is a leading branded specialty retailer of premium quality doughnuts, including the Company's signature Hot Original Glazed. Krispy Kreme currently operates 394 stores (comprised of 363 factory stores and 31 satellites) in 44 U.S. states, Australia, Canada, Mexico and the United Kingdom. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: The markets look ready to trim a little more excess and where else to start than a doughnut maker with a P/E of 44? KKD recently announced earnings on March 10th and total revenues soared 36% to 185.5 million for the quarter. Adjusted earnings were 19 cents compared to just 9 cents the year before. These are pretty amazing numbers for a fast growing company but all may not seem as sweet as one of their hot glazed doughnuts. For the first time in three years KKD's margins declined. For the quarter margins dropped 290 basis points and average weekly sales dropped 10%. This news had several analysts taking a closer look at the company's performance. Suddenly investors have a new concern. Is KKD frantically opening stores just to meet their sales targets? Considering the low-carb diet craze that has been sweeping the nation it wouldn't be a surprise to see doughnut sales falling. It didn't help matters than KKD issued lackluster earnings guidance for fiscal 2005. The stock dropped about 10% on its earnings report and struggled to hold the $35.00 level until the selling renewed again Thursday and Friday this past week. The breakdown to a new low on twice the average volume is bad news and we think KKD will test support at the $30.00 level soon. Its P&F chart also reveals a sell signal that has pierced P&F support and points to a $26.00 price target. We're going to initiate the play at current levels with a stop loss at $34.41. Annotated Chart: Picked on March 21 at $00.00 Gain since picked: - 0.00 Earnings Date 03/10/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 798 thousand ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Standard Pacific - SPF - cls: 55.84 chg: -0.66 stop: 54.50 *new* We've been bullish on the home building sector for a while and some recent articles this weekend express the same feelings from a number of analysts. Unfortunately, the short-term technical picture for the group and for SPF is starting to look tired. The MACD indicator for SPF has recently produced a sell signal from overbought territory and its short-term technicals are also rolling over. The share price has been in a sideways pennant like consolidation, which will allow us to raise the stop loss to $54.50. We're not suggesting new bullish positions in SPF at this time unless we see a strong breakout back above the $57.50- 58.00 region. In all honesty we're planning to be stopped out at $54.40 but we're just not willing to give up hope that the homebuilders will continue to outperform even through more market weakness. Bullish traders looking for new entries should probably be patient and look for a dip toward the $52.00-52.50 range. Annotated Chart: Picked on February 29 at $52.31 Gain since picked: + 3.53 Earnings Date 02/04/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 468 thousand --- Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 41.40 change: -0.41 stop: 38.00 After its strong rebound from the 20-dma ($40.46) earlier in the week, IGT just kept on running and on Friday morning, it looked like a breakout attempt might be in the cards. But the opening spike was all she wrote, as the stock got caught up in the weakness infecting the rest of the market and pulled back to close back under $41.50, more than $1 off of its intraday high. Now we'll have to see if the bulls have the conviction to make another attempt at the highs next week. Dips near the 20-dma still look like solid entry opportunities, with strong support resting down just under the $40 level. Traders looking to enter on strength will still need to wait for a breakout over the $43.11 high from early March before playing. We're maintaining a loose stop just under the 50-dma at $38, as that average has been solid support for months. Picked on March 17th at $41.82 Change since picked -0.42 Earnings Date 4/22/04 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 2.04 mln -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Best Buy Co. - BBY - close: 47.23 change: -0.49 stop: 49.50*new* The strength of BBY's rebound following the initial break below $48 was a bit disconcerting, but the price action last week was much more encouraging. The initial bounce was quickly reversed, and the stock spent the remainder of the week banging on the $47 support level. With the intraday highs growing progressively lower, BBY looks on the verge of a breakdown that should extend at least to mild support near $46, but more likely to stronger support near $44. We're likely to only get one more directional move before we need to drop the play, with earnings coming up on March 30th. Another failed bounce below the 10-dma ($48.70) can be used for aggressive entries, but our preference at this point is to enter on a break below $47. BBY will either break down and satisfy our expectations or bounce from the $47 level next week. There's no need to use such a wide stop any longer, so we're lowering our official stop to $49.50, just over the 3/12 closing high. If BBY breaks above that point, then we'll know for sure that the bearish trend has been reversed. Picked on March 10th at $48.50 Change since picked -1.27 Earnings Date 3/30/04 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 3.64 mln --- Pharm. Resources - PRX - cls: 56.27 chng: -1.23 stop: 61.00*new* The first break of support found buyers still trying to hold PRX up, but yesterday's crack of the H&S neckline at $57 was solidified by today's bearish price action. The stock fell back through support and actually cracked the $56 level before a slight end-of-day bounce. Volume continues to rise as PRX breaks down and with the H&S neckline broken, and a fresh PnF Sell signal, the stock looks destined to continue sliding down towards the bullish support line at $49. The PnF bearish price target is currently $47, so that target does look achievable. We can expect possible support to be found at $55 and then again at $52.50 on the way down. Traders that didn't take the entry on the initial break of support can now look to enter either on a break below Friday's low, or even better, on a failed bounce below the 10-dma (now at $58.96). Lower stops to $61, just over the 50-dma. Picked on March 17th at $57.83 Change since picked -1.56 Earnings Date 2/26/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 699 K ============ CLOSED PLAYS ============ -------------------- Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- Ryder Systems - R - close: 36.55 change: -0.51 stop: 36.49 Some big swings in the Dow Transports gave us the old double- whammy with our play in R. Wednesday's rally was enough to push R above resistance at $38.00 and trigger us at $38.05. The two- day sell-off on Thursday-Friday brought R right back down and below its simple 50-dma. We were stopped out on Friday when R traded at $36.49 by a penny! Picked on March 17 at $38.05 Gain since picked: - 1.56 Earnings Date 02/05/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 441 thousand --- Tyco International - TYC - close: 27.95 change: -0.56 stop: 27.25 The first sign of trouble came when TYC slipped back under the midline of its rising channel, but the bulls held strong, continuing to hang onto that average as tenuous support. Recovering back to the midline of the channel by midweek, it looked like we had another rally attempt on our hands. But that potential was negated on Friday, with the stock smashing back down into the lower half of the channel and closing at its low of the day, below the 50-dma again. TYC looks headed back to the bottom of its channel to find support and that's more risk than we're prepared to take. Our stop hasn't been hit yet, but this looks like a good opportunity to cut our losses before our stop does it for us. Picked on February 29th at $28.57 Change since picked -0.62 Earnings Date 2/03/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 8.67 mln ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== ============ CLOSED PLAYS ============ -------------------- Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Human Genome - HGSI - cls: 12.07 chng: +0.07 stop: 13.20*new* We knew there was the potential for support to be found near the $11.50 level, as that was where HGSI found support back in late November. Sure enough, the bulls stepped in at that level on Tuesday, but the buying didn't look very convincing. Thursday's bounce was another matter altogether though, as HGSI gapped down to support and then just as quickly bounced back. Obviously, the stock didn't make much upward progress on Friday with the whole market under pressure, but it is a bit disconcerting that the stock actually gained ground in such a weak environment. That said, HGSI will run into stiff resistance in the vicinity of the 20-dma ($12.51), as it is also the site of historical resistance (broken support). That's where we want to look for new entries on a rollover. Traders looking for a breakdown entry have their action point clearly defined. A break below $11.50 should do the trick and get HGSI moving towards next support near $10. Lower stops to $13.20, just over the 50-dma. Picked on March 14th at $12.34 Change since picked -0.27 Earnings Date N/A Average Daily Volume = 1.40 mln ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 03-21-2004 section 3 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section three: Market Watch for Week of March 22, 2004 - Major Earnings - Stock Splits - Economic Reports Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= ========================================== Market Watch for the week of March 22nd ========================================== TOT Total Sa (ADS) 92.03 -0.14 CVX Chevrontexaco Corp 89.13 -0.62 COP Conocophillips 69.98 -0.37 MET Metlife Inc 35.27 -0.38 PRU Prudential Financial Inc 46.08 -0.92 PGR Progressive Corp 88.79 +1.38 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- None --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- FO Fortune Brands Inc 75.74 +0.18 SII Smith Internat Inc 54.04 -0.67 DASTY Dassault Systems Sa (ADR) 40.74 +0.75 KMRT Kmart Holding Corp 37.85 +0.79 CCJ Cameco Corp 48.26 -0.24 CPG Chelsea Property Grp Inc 61.89 +0.21 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- MDT Medtronic Inc 47.50 -0.55 CAKE Cheesecake Factory Inc 45.01 -0.05 MLHR Mherman Miller Inc 26.24 -0.52 WGO Winnebago Industries Inc 30.02 +0.11 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- None ====================================================== Trading Ideas ====================================================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change ----------------- Earnings Calendar ----------------- Symbol Co Date Comment EPS Est ------------------------- MONDAY ------------------------------- CCL Crnvl Corp & Crnvl Mon, Mar 22 -----N/A----- 0.22 CBB Cincinnati Bell Inc. Mon, Mar 22 -----N/A----- 0.09 SKIL SkillSoft Corporation Mon, Mar 22 After the Bell 0.04 WAG Walgreen Mon, Mar 22 -----N/A----- 0.42 WOS Wolseley Mon, Mar 22 -----N/A----- N/A ------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------ ARRO Arrow International Tue, Mar 23 -----N/A----- 0.33 FDO Family Dollar Tue, Mar 23 -----N/A----- 0.46 GS Goldman Sachs Tue, Mar 23 Before the Bell 1.61 MKC McCormick & Company Tue, Mar 23 Before the Bell 0.27 RHAT Red Hat, Inc. Tue, Mar 23 After the Bell 0.03 ------------------------ WEDNESDAY ----------------------------- RIO Companhia Vale Rio Wed, Mar 24 After the Bell 1.17 LNR LNR Property Wed, Mar 24 -----N/A----- 0.77 SIGY Signet Group Wed, Mar 24 Before the Bell N/A SONC Sonic Corp. Wed, Mar 24 After the Bell 0.23 SCM Swisscom AG Wed, Mar 24 Before the Bell N/A TKA Telekom Austria AG Wed, Mar 24 Before the Bell N/A ------------------------- THUSDAY ----------------------------- BGO Bema Gold Thu, Mar 25 After the Bell -0.01 COGN Cognos Thu, Mar 25 After the Bell 0.35 CAG ConAgra Foods, Inc. Thu, Mar 25 Before the Bell 0.38 VIP Vimpel Communications Thu, Mar 25 -----N/A----- N/A ------------------------- FRIDAY ------------------------------- DISH EchoStar Comm Corp. Fri, Mar 26 Before the Bell 0.09 IMI SanPaolo IMI SpA Fri, Mar 26 -----N/A----- N/A ---------------------------------------------- Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks... ---------------------------------------------- Symbol Co Name Ratio Payable Executable DCI Donaldson Company, Inc 2:1 Mar 19th Mar 22nd NIHD NII Holdings, Inc 3:1 Mar 22nd Mar 23rd ASFI Asta Funding Inc 2:1 Mar 23rd Mar 24th COCO Corinthian Colleges Inc 2:1 Mar 23rd Mar 24th RJF Raymond James Financial 3:2 Mar 24th Mar 25th AMSG AmSurg Corp 3:2 Mar 24th Mar 25th SCHN Schnitzer Steel Ind, Inc 3:2 Mar 25th Mar 26th WGA Wells-Gardner Elect Corp 21:20 Mar 26th Mar 29th HOV Hovnanian Ent, Inc 2:1 Mar 26th Mar 29th MVL Marvel Enterprises 3:2 Mar 26th Mar 29th APH Amphenol Corp 2:1 Mar 29th Mar 30th XTEX Crsstx nrg co, L.P. 3:2 Mar 29th Mar 30th GGG Graco Inc 3:2 Mar 30th Mar 31st IDSA Industrial Services of 3:2 Mar 30th Mar 31st PHX Panhandle Royalty Co 2:1 Apr 1st Apr 2nd TACT TransAct Technologies Inc 3:2 Apr 2nd Apr 5th -------------------------- Economic Reports This Week -------------------------- There are a lot of Fed heads speaking this week on the economy should it could keep the market hopping. We're still in the middle of pre-announcement season and most of this week's economic reports come out Weds-Thursday-Friday. ============================================================== -For- ---------------- Monday, 03/22/04 ---------------- Federal Reserve's Moskow speaks in Chicago ----------------- Tuesday, 03/23/04 ----------------- Federal Reserve's Stern speaks in New Orleans ------------------- Wednesday, 03/24/04 ------------------- Durable Orders (BB) Feb Forecast: 1.2% Previous: -2.3% New Home Sales (DM) Feb Forecast: 1100K Previous: 1106K Federal Reserve's Guynn speaks in Tennessee Federal Reserve's Parry speaks in Portland Federal Reserve's Minehan speaks in New York ------------------ Thursday, 03/25/04 ------------------ Initial Claims (BB) 03/20 Forecast: N/A Previous: 336K GDP-Final (BB) Q4 Forecast: 4.1% Previous: 4.1% Chain Deflator-Final (BB) Q4 Forecast: 1.2% Previous: 1.2% Help-Wanted Index (DM) Feb Forecast: 39 Previous: 38 Existing Home Sales (DM) Feb Forecast: 6.20M Previous: 6.04M ---------------- Friday, 03/26/04 ---------------- Personal Income (BB) Feb Forecast: 0.3% Previous: 0.2% Personal Spending (BB) Feb Forecast: 0.5% Previous: 0.4% Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM) Mar Forecast: 94.0 Previous: 94.1 -Amendment to the Economic Calendar- The Feds released the January PPI data last week but have not yet announced when the February PPI data will be released. PPI (NA) Date TBA Feb Forecast: N/A Previous: 0.6% Core PPI (NA) Date TBA Feb Forecast: N/A Previous: 0.3% Definitions: DM= During the Market BB= Before the Bell AB= After the Bell NA= Not Available ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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