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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 03/25/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-25-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Back From The Brink
Market Sentiment: Bulls Stampede
Watch List:       WES, PAYX, SIRI, BDK


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      03-18-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10218.82 +170.60 10226.08 10049.49 1.90 bln 2295/ 912
NASDAQ   1967.17 + 57.70  1967.17  1923.22 1.94 bln 2280/ 825
S&P 100   544.31 +  9.82   544.87   534.49   Totals 4575/1737
S&P 500  1109.28 + 17.95  1110.38  1091.33
W5000   10842.86 +180.30 10850.60 10662.52
SOX       485.53 + 17.20   486.34   468.14
RUS 2000  571.53 + 13.90   571.69   557.63
DJ TRANS 2828.74 + 67.40  2831.37  2761.74
VIX        17.88 -  1.93    19.58    17.61
VXO (VIX-O)17.76 -  2.73    19.99    17.65
VXN        23.70 -  2.36    26.01    23.49
Total Volume 4,243M
Total UpVol  3,771M
Total DnVol    434M
Total Adv  5120
Total Dcl  2036
52wk Highs  204
52wk Lows    34
NasTRIN    0.17
TRIN       0.45
PUT/CALL   0.70
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Back From The Brink

The bulls had been pushed to the cliff's edge with more
than a couple being turned into hamburger on the rocks
below but the remainder of the herd dug in its heels,
lowered their horns and pushed their way back from the
brink. There was no magic moment, no sudden change in
economics or smooth tongued words of wisdom by a Fed head.
After three days of trying to force the bulls over the
cliff the sellers just ran out of ammo.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily



The economic reports started with the Jobless Claims and
at 339,000 they came in right in line with last weeks 338K
and still at a positive level. The four-week moving average
fell to a post recession low of 341,500 and at this level
jobs have historically seen gains. The continuing claims
fell to just over three million. The continuing claims
are reduced by about -80,000 a week as benefits expire.
This does not mean 80,000 a week are finding jobs.

The 4Q-GDP came in at 4.1% as expected with corporate
profits rising at +7.2%. As long as this number holds it
will mean the GDP for 2003 will be +3.1% and the best since
2000. If you read Mark's article on Thursday night you know
this number is questionable. Makes you wonder where we would
have been without that +8.5% gain in Q3. For today's revision
the consumer spending number was revised up to +3.2% from
+2.7% in the prior revision. Considering the 3Q was so hot
it is amazing that the 4Q actually posted another gain but
then holiday spending did finally come through in the last
week of the year.

Business inventories rose for the first time in three
quarters although the gain was cut to only $9.0B from
$14.9B in the prior revision. The weaker dollar continued
to improve the balance of trade and add to the overall GDP
level. The GDP growth at +4.1% is above the standard goal
of 3.0-3.5% and while not exciting it is not yet strong
enough to cause rising inflation. It is kind of like the
Goldilocks economy from the late 90s. The porridge is not
too hot and not too cold but a little warmer would be
better.

Existing Home Sales rose to 6.12 million in February and
up from 6.0 million in January. The bad weather in Feb
depressed sales and the overall quarter is shaping up to
be weaker than expected. This could depress GDP for Q1
as housing sales ripple through the entire economy. I am
still expecting the 2Q to be very strong with continued
low rates and the strong tax refund cycle. This spring
and summer may be the last big boom with a moderate
slowing in the 4Q. The application rate for adjustable
rate loans has risen to 28% and far above the 15% level
during last years boom. This suggests that the buyer pool
is weaker and they are stretching to be able to afford a
new home. Most consumers who wanted to move up took
advantage of the low rates over the last two years. There
is still a ready market that is only slightly weaker and
inventory is relatively low so builders will still be
able to control pricing power. The next six months could
be the peak for the building community without a strong
economic recovery to provide the next round of buyers.

The best news of the day was the increase in the Help
Wanted Index to 40 from 39. No, it was not a big jump
but it was the highest level since Feb-2003 and January
was revised up one point. This makes two months of small
increases and we are well off the lows of 35 last May.
After six months of hovering around 37 the move up could
be the start of a real pickup in hiring. It is still a
weak reading but any gain to a yearly high should be
well received. Jobless Claims have been trending down
and now help wanted ads are trending up. Looks like a
real change in progress. Hiring could be stronger than
this index suggests because of the shift away from
newspaper advertising to online methods. Also, the
quantity of workers applying for every job means
companies don't have to run as big an ad or as many ads
as when there was competition for employees in the late
90s. There is also a trend to employing more contractors
to cut down on the high benefit costs. I am not
disregarding the higher index number but only suggesting
that real hiring activity may actually be stronger.

While the economic activity today was positive it was
definitely not responsible for the bullish blowout. The
gains today sent the Nasdaq to the strongest one day
gain in nine months. The Dow and S&P posted their biggest
gains since October. Guess who lead the gains? Those who
had been beaten down the most. Microsoft rose +3.19% and
Intel +4.74% to name just a couple. The bottom appeared
to be put in earlier in the week and some of the tech
stocks actually began to post gains on Wednesday despite
the weakness in the Dow and S&P. Intel closed at a high
for the week on Wednesday and then blasted out of the
gate on Thursday. Same with Microsoft when the EU fine
failed to knock it back to the lows. Buying opportunity?
At least that is the way it appeared in hindsight.

I reported earlier this week that the SOX was showing
strength despite the broader market weakness and a quick
check of the SOX shows a +6% rebound, +3.67% today alone,
and right back to the resistance from early March. Today
may have surprised some traders but most expected a
rebound soon. We were very oversold and right on the edge
of the cliff. We had to hold the line or die and after
three days of trying the bears could not push us over
that cliff. That gave buyers courage and we were off to
the races. Semis normally recover first, then techs in
general and this is exactly what happened.

The Dow recovered to close at 10215 and well off the
10,000 danger point where we had fought the battle all
week. The +170 point gain was very strong and came very
close to having curbs in on the upside. Can you imagine
that? The Nasdaq rallied +57 points to close at 1965 and
only a hop, skip and a buy program of points away from
2000. Volume was moderate at 4.2B but the internals were
very strong. On Monday we had a 10:1 down day which
normally suggests a capitulation event. Today we had
nearly a 9:1 up day. Very strong! Unfortunately advancers
were only slightly better than 2:1 over decliners. Still
some traders not convinced. With good reason I might add.

Yes, you knew there was a "however" lurking around here
somewhere. The Nasdaq rallied very strong off three days
of support at 1900 and closed at 1965. Unfortunately the
1970-1980 level is very strong resistance. If this rally
turns into a one day wonder like March-17th then this is
the place it will fail.

The Dow has a little breathing room from its close at
10215 to strong resistance at 10300-10325. This was the
level that stopped the previous rally from last week.
Using the broader S&P that room stretches to 1120-1125
from the 1108 close.

This suggests the bulls can get a running start in the
morning and hit these resistance levels at a dead run
but the odds of a wreck are good. I would love to see
the rally continue to rebound into April earnings but
I keep thinking there is another shoe waiting to drop.
We dropped over the last two weeks on profit taking,
jobs, economy and terror. The jobs indicators are showing
a continued slight improvement and the economic indicators
are starting to suggest another uptick as we near the end
of the quarter. Earnings are still rising at +16.0% and
earnings warnings are very minimal. While everything
appears to be on track for stocks we still have the
terror component and the election component as wild
cards that can appear at any moment.

The terror threat that was used as an excuse to take
us lower still exists. Today Al Jazeera broadcasted a
new tape from Al Qaeda number two man Ayman Al-Zawahri
calling on the Pakistan army to depose General Musharraf.
He claimed Pakistan was working for America in attacking
the Pastun tribes suspected of protecting him. Obviously
he is not in the rubble and not trapped in the current
standoff. He appears to be alive and well and could try
to pull off another attack to emphasize that fact. This
raises the weekend event risk for many.

I explained last week how earnings and the economy do not
always produce higher stock prices but that is a long term
outlook not just weeks. We had a true correction on most
fronts and traders are starting to see value once again.
At least that is what the analysts are saying. I tend to
think they got tired of waiting on the sidelines for the
selling to stop and finally jumped in for a quick trade.
It was more boredom and greed than value.

The challenge for Friday will be to hold the gains and
try to move closer to those resistance levels I mentioned
earlier of 10300/1980/1120. While it would be great to
see another breakout I would be really surprised to see
it on Friday. Weekend event risk may prevent back to back
strong gains. That is ok in my book. If they would just
post another gain to get us closer to resistance then we
will be ready to start with a clean slate on Monday.

Next week is quarter end and we should begin to see some
window dressing from funds sitting on cash over the last
couple of weeks. Nobody wants to publish statements that
show them in cash if a rebound really took hold. If the
truth was known I would not doubt if some of the buying
today was probably related to window dressing. Wednesday
is the end of the month so time's a wasting if they want
to put that cash to work.

If we can make it to Monday without a retracement and
without any terror event then we could be in good shape.
The week, other than Monday, is chock full of economic
reports that could help build investor confidence. We
have NAPM, PMI, Factory Orders, Semi Billings, Construction
Spending, ISM and of course the Jobs report on Friday.
With the continued weakness in Jobless Claims, the
dramatic drop in the Monthly Mass Layoffs and the boost
in the Help Wanted Index we may actually get a Jobs
report with jobs. That could be a good news bad news
event depending on the number. The estimate is for +100K
and that is also the right temperature for Goldilocks
porridge. Not too hot to stimulate the Fed and not to
cold to throw water on the economy but just enough to
show that employment is really increasing.

Keep your fingers crossed for Friday that we do not see
a retracement of the gains and we do see some follow
through. Follow through will set us up for next week.
Lack of follow through could quickly remove any budding
bullish sentiment and put us back in limbo once again.
Since the broad market sell off began on March 8th we
had an initial four day drop, followed by three days of
consolidation. The big rally on the 17th was followed
by two days of drops and then three days of consolidation.
Is the cycle going to repeat with another lower low ahead?
Nobody knows. Keep those fingers crossed but keep those
stops in place.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Bulls Stampede
- J. Brown

To be brief investors sentiment was pretty easy to read today.
After weeks of selling and suffering some sharp declines in the
last few days investors finally bought the dip boosted by what
was probably some frantic short covering.  The Dow's 170-point
gain ended a 5-day losing streak with 29 of its 30 components
closing higher.

Meanwhile the biggest action was in the NASDAQ with a 57-point
gain (3.02%) marking its best one-day performance in five months.
Analysts made a lot of hoopla about the heavy down volume on some
of the declines in the last couple of weeks but we saw an equally
impressive turnaround today.  Advancing stocks swamped decliners
3-to-1 on the NYSE and 22 to 8 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was
almost 6-to-1 over down volume on the NYSE and it hit 17-to-1
over down volume on the NASDAQ.  We certainly don't see that
every day.

Yet be careful before your enthusiasm gets out of hand.  Seeing
the markets finally buy the 5% and 10% corrections in the S&P 500
and the NASDAQ, respectively; is good news but the recent trend
has been for a snap back the opposite direction any time the
market makes a big move and today certainly qualifies as big.

In summary today's rally was refreshing and instilled some
confidence that the bull market is still alive and we'll be on
the look out for the next round of bullish play candidates.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  7929
Current     : 10218

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10170
 50-dma: 10488
200-dma:  9815



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  843
Current     : 1109

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1108
 50-dma: 1135
200-dma: 1056



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1014
Current     : 1425

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1404
 50-dma: 1473
200-dma: 1381


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Volatility indices collapsed as the markets produced a huge rally
that swept across all sectors save the oil index.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.88 -1.93
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 17.83 -2.66
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 23.70 -2.36

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.70        976,574       679,442
Equity Only    0.60        816,089       488,795
OEX            0.65         30,572        19,975
QQQ            1.11        193,164       213,641


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          70.5    + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    38.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   76.7    - 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       72.0    - 2     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       77.0    - 5     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.64
10-dma: 1.40
21-dma: 1.46
55-dma: 1.19


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2123      2259
Decliners     696       788

New Highs     106        79
New Lows       17        16

Up Volume   1569M      1792M
Down Vol.    266M       105M

Total Vol.  1848M     1927M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/16/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Hmm... there's been a lot of action in the commercial traders'
positions the last few weeks.  It's almost like they can't decide
what direction to go.  The latest data shows them switching from
net bearish to net bullish again.   Small traders are more
consistent and remain net bullish although less so than recent
weeks.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/24/04      417,490   416,502       988     0.0%
03/02/04      411,932   418,936    (7,004)   (0.1%)
03/09/04      418,394   433,237   (14,843)   (1.7%)
03/16/04      454,635   449,505     5,130     0.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04      141,559    85,171    56,388    24.9%
03/02/04      148,383    84,135    64,248    27.6%
03/09/04      155,947    88,317    67,630    27.7%
03/16/04      159,054   115,023    44,031    25.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Whoa!  Commercial traders have turned very bearish on the
S&P e-mini's.  Contract volume in both longs and shorts have
soared but they bought almost 90K new shorts pushing bearish
sentiment to new levels not seen in weeks.  Small traders
also increased their positions but remain bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
02/24/04      320,425   387,255    (66,830)  ( 9.4%)
03/02/04      344,805   395,112    (50,307)  ( 6.8%)
03/09/04      431,623   485,268    (53,645)  ( 5.9%)
03/16/04      472,809   574,241   (101,432)  ( 9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04     129,894     63,524    66,370    34.3%
03/02/04     119,382     67,453    51,929    27.8%
03/09/04     135,233     76,558    58,675    27.7%
03/16/04     192,136     96,691    95,445    33.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders are continuing this bullish trend and
hit another new high in bullish sentiment.  Is everyone
just buying the dip?  Small traders may have taken notice
as they nearly doubled their number of long contracts but
then the more than doubled their short contracts.  At least
the brokers are making some money on commissions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       47,266     40,452     6,814    7.8%
03/02/04       49,959     41,059     8,900    9.8%
03/09/04       57,368     46,082    11,286   10.9%
03/16/04       68,285     54,899    13,386   10.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  13,386   - 03/16/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       12,388     7,310     5,078    25.8%
03/02/04       11,605     7,128     4,477    23.9%
03/09/04       15,533     8,070     7,463    31.6%
03/16/04       27,859    18,333     9,526    20.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Not too much change here for the commercial traders although
they've become significantly less bullish than recent weeks.
Small traders are moving the other direction and becoming
less bearish!


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
02/24/04       27,176    13,918   13,258      32.3%
03/02/04       27,594    14,166   13,428      32.2%
03/09/04       26,867    12,845   14,022      35.3%
03/16/04       32,317    17,514   14,803      29.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
02/24/04        6,509    14,919   (8,410)   (39.2%)
03/02/04        6,898    15,874   (8,976)   (39.4%)
03/09/04        7,053    19,159  (12,106)   (46.2%)
03/16/04       10,002    20,970  (10,968)   (35.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Westcorp - WES - close: 43.39 change: +0.81

WHAT TO WATCH: Shooting sharply higher on Tuesday, shares of WES
underwent a bit of consolidation yesterday before pushing to new
closing highs on Thursday, helped along by the strength in the
broad market.  Use a trigger of $43.75 (just above today's high)
and target a rally to the $47-48 area.

Chart=


---

Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 35.20 change: +1.31

WHAT TO WATCH: The past few months haven't been kind to shares of
PAYX, with continued selling pressure creating a pattern of lower
highs.  But the bulls appear to be finally returning, as the
stock is now posting a pattern of higher lows and today's rally
blasted through both the 50-dma and the 100-dma, while breaking
above the 4-month descending trendline.  Use a trigger over
today's high and target a rally back to the $39-40 area.

Chart=


---

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. - SIRI - close: 3.18 change: +0.09

WHAT TO WATCH: Is the consolidation over?  It appears SIRI has
finally digested its latest moonshot rally and is close to
delivering a breakout from the recent pattern of higher lows.
Aggressive entries can be taken on a break above $3.20, while
more conservative traders will need to see a move through $3.32,
which would indicate increased bullish enthusiasm.  Look for a
near-term target in the $4.00 area.

Chart=


---

Black & Decker Corp. - BDK - close: 55.52 change: +1.09

WHAT TO WATCH: Somebody forgot to tell BDK investors that the
broad market was undergoing a correction.  Rather than pull back,
the stock has been holding near its highs and today's broad
market advance was the perfect excuse for a breakout.  With
strong volume supporting the move over $55, this looks like the
beginning of a larger move.  Either a pullback into the $54.50
area or a breakout to new highs can be used for entry.

Chart=


---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

ORCL $11.94 - The stock is just a shadow of its former self, but
ORCL looks like it is at an actionable point for the bulls.
After pulling back to confirm strong support near $11, ORCL has
rebounded strongly over the past couple days.  Use a pullback
near the $11.50 level to initiate new positions and target a
rally back to the 50-dma, just over $13.

ROST $29.95 - Retail stocks were back in favor on Thursday and
ROST was no exception.  Rallying back to resistance, the stock
looks ready to break into the gap left behind when it gapped
lower earlier this month.  Use a trigger of $30.15 (just over the
30-dma) and target a return to the $33 area.

JPM $41.50 - Brokerage stocks had a great day on Thursday, with
the XBD index adding 2.5%.  JPM once again rebounded from the
site of the 50-dma, just above strong support near $40.  Entries
look favorable on one more dip near the 50-dma in anticipation of
a break from the near-term bearish trend and a return to the
recent highs just below $44.

GLW $10.91 - Aggressive Tech investors finally got the bargain
they were waiting for in shares of GLW, as the stock came down to
test strong support near $10, also right at the 200-dma.  If the
bulls were going to buy the dip, this was the place to make a
stand.  Another dip near the 200-dma looks favorable for entry,
targeting a rise back over the $12 level.  Use a tight stop just
under $10.


=================================================================
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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 03-25-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments:  None
Closed Plays:      BBY, HGSI, KKD
Stock Splits:      None


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

None


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

Best Buy Co. - BBY - close: 48.53 change: +2.09 stop: 48.10

Long overdue for a decent bounce, the Retail index (RLX.X) tacked
on a very impressive 2.5% on Thursday, brining it right back to
key support/resistance near $390.  BBY did its part to add to
those gains following comments from UBS that the recent weakness
is overdone.  Those comments along with the broad market strength
sent the stock to a 4.5% advance, bringing it back above the
original breakdown level.  With earnings slated to be released on
March 31st, it looks like we did the right thing by tightening
our stop to just above $48, effectively getting us out of the
play near the breakeven point.  Traders still in the play should
look to exit on any early weakness ahead of the weekend.

Picked on March 10th at     $48.50
Change since picked          +0.03
Earnings Date              3/30/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    3.64 mln

Chart =


---

Human Genome - HGSI - cls: 12.25 chng: +0.86 stop: 12.50

A 7.5% rally is not what we like to see in our bearish plays and
HGSI's rally looks all the more bullish with volume running more
than double the average on Thursday.  Investors cheered the
announcement that the CEO will retire, along with a statement
that the company will refocus on only those product candidates
that have the highest potential.  Today's rally erased the past 8
days worth of losses and looks very bullish.  Rather than wait
for our stop to be triggered -- most likely tomorrow -- we're
going to close it tonight.  Use any early weakness tomorrow as a
better exit opportunity.

Picked on March 14th at     $12.34
Change since picked          -0.09
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =    1.40 mln

Chart =


---

Krispy Kreme Doughnut - KKD - cls: 34.18 chg: +0.57 stop: 34.41

A little oversold bounce we can handle but when the markets come
close to having trading curbs applied because the bulls are
stampeding makes it tough to deal with when you're short.  KKD's
decline seemed to stall most of the week as the Dow found support
at the 10,000 level.  The latter wasn't a surprise but today's
rally in KKD pegged our stop loss at $34.41 to close us out.

Picked on March 21 at $33.06
Gain since picked:    + 1.12
Earnings Date       03/10/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    798 thousand
Chart =



=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------

None


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

WFC     Wells Fargo & Co           57.14     +0.57
BAC     Bank of America            79.74     +1.43
HD      Home Depot                 37.15     +1.16
JPM     J.P.Morgan                 41.50     +0.76
MET     Metlife Inc                35.09     +0.57
KMB     Kimberly Clark             61.44     +1.09

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

ATVI    Activision Inc             15.14     +1.52
SGMS    Scientific Games           18.94     +1.17
IMM     Immtech Intl Inc           18.10     +2.11
TRMM    TRM Corp                   18.65     +1.75

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

AVP     Avon Products Inc          75.35     +4.78
MBT     Mobile Telesys            123.07    +10.45
NSM     National Semiconductor     43.30     +2.94
VIP     Vimpel Communication       98.48    +10.05
BDK     Black & Decker             55.52     +1.09
RHAT    Red Hat Inc                22.38     +2.37
DVA     Davita Inc                 46.63     +1.53

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

CVX     ChevronTexaco              84.68     -1.20
COP     ConocoPhillips             66.04     -1.21
MRO     Marathon Oil               30.78     -1.50
KMI     Kinder Morgan              61.09     -2.59
AFCO    Applied Films Corp         27.49     -1.05
SRC     Sierra Pacific Resources   36.75     -1.85

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

AHC     Amerada Hess Corp          62.22     -1.11
ADC     Agree Realty Corp          32.60     -0.09


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