PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 03-25-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Back From The Brink Market Sentiment: Bulls Stampede Watch List: WES, PAYX, SIRI, BDK ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 03-18-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10218.82 +170.60 10226.08 10049.49 1.90 bln 2295/ 912 NASDAQ 1967.17 + 57.70 1967.17 1923.22 1.94 bln 2280/ 825 S&P 100 544.31 + 9.82 544.87 534.49 Totals 4575/1737 S&P 500 1109.28 + 17.95 1110.38 1091.33 W5000 10842.86 +180.30 10850.60 10662.52 SOX 485.53 + 17.20 486.34 468.14 RUS 2000 571.53 + 13.90 571.69 557.63 DJ TRANS 2828.74 + 67.40 2831.37 2761.74 VIX 17.88 - 1.93 19.58 17.61 VXO (VIX-O)17.76 - 2.73 19.99 17.65 VXN 23.70 - 2.36 26.01 23.49 Total Volume 4,243M Total UpVol 3,771M Total DnVol 434M Total Adv 5120 Total Dcl 2036 52wk Highs 204 52wk Lows 34 NasTRIN 0.17 TRIN 0.45 PUT/CALL 0.70 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Back From The Brink The bulls had been pushed to the cliff's edge with more than a couple being turned into hamburger on the rocks below but the remainder of the herd dug in its heels, lowered their horns and pushed their way back from the brink. There was no magic moment, no sudden change in economics or smooth tongued words of wisdom by a Fed head. After three days of trying to force the bulls over the cliff the sellers just ran out of ammo. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily The economic reports started with the Jobless Claims and at 339,000 they came in right in line with last weeks 338K and still at a positive level. The four-week moving average fell to a post recession low of 341,500 and at this level jobs have historically seen gains. The continuing claims fell to just over three million. The continuing claims are reduced by about -80,000 a week as benefits expire. This does not mean 80,000 a week are finding jobs. The 4Q-GDP came in at 4.1% as expected with corporate profits rising at +7.2%. As long as this number holds it will mean the GDP for 2003 will be +3.1% and the best since 2000. If you read Mark's article on Thursday night you know this number is questionable. Makes you wonder where we would have been without that +8.5% gain in Q3. For today's revision the consumer spending number was revised up to +3.2% from +2.7% in the prior revision. Considering the 3Q was so hot it is amazing that the 4Q actually posted another gain but then holiday spending did finally come through in the last week of the year. Business inventories rose for the first time in three quarters although the gain was cut to only $9.0B from $14.9B in the prior revision. The weaker dollar continued to improve the balance of trade and add to the overall GDP level. The GDP growth at +4.1% is above the standard goal of 3.0-3.5% and while not exciting it is not yet strong enough to cause rising inflation. It is kind of like the Goldilocks economy from the late 90s. The porridge is not too hot and not too cold but a little warmer would be better. Existing Home Sales rose to 6.12 million in February and up from 6.0 million in January. The bad weather in Feb depressed sales and the overall quarter is shaping up to be weaker than expected. This could depress GDP for Q1 as housing sales ripple through the entire economy. I am still expecting the 2Q to be very strong with continued low rates and the strong tax refund cycle. This spring and summer may be the last big boom with a moderate slowing in the 4Q. The application rate for adjustable rate loans has risen to 28% and far above the 15% level during last years boom. This suggests that the buyer pool is weaker and they are stretching to be able to afford a new home. Most consumers who wanted to move up took advantage of the low rates over the last two years. There is still a ready market that is only slightly weaker and inventory is relatively low so builders will still be able to control pricing power. The next six months could be the peak for the building community without a strong economic recovery to provide the next round of buyers. The best news of the day was the increase in the Help Wanted Index to 40 from 39. No, it was not a big jump but it was the highest level since Feb-2003 and January was revised up one point. This makes two months of small increases and we are well off the lows of 35 last May. After six months of hovering around 37 the move up could be the start of a real pickup in hiring. It is still a weak reading but any gain to a yearly high should be well received. Jobless Claims have been trending down and now help wanted ads are trending up. Looks like a real change in progress. Hiring could be stronger than this index suggests because of the shift away from newspaper advertising to online methods. Also, the quantity of workers applying for every job means companies don't have to run as big an ad or as many ads as when there was competition for employees in the late 90s. There is also a trend to employing more contractors to cut down on the high benefit costs. I am not disregarding the higher index number but only suggesting that real hiring activity may actually be stronger. While the economic activity today was positive it was definitely not responsible for the bullish blowout. The gains today sent the Nasdaq to the strongest one day gain in nine months. The Dow and S&P posted their biggest gains since October. Guess who lead the gains? Those who had been beaten down the most. Microsoft rose +3.19% and Intel +4.74% to name just a couple. The bottom appeared to be put in earlier in the week and some of the tech stocks actually began to post gains on Wednesday despite the weakness in the Dow and S&P. Intel closed at a high for the week on Wednesday and then blasted out of the gate on Thursday. Same with Microsoft when the EU fine failed to knock it back to the lows. Buying opportunity? At least that is the way it appeared in hindsight. I reported earlier this week that the SOX was showing strength despite the broader market weakness and a quick check of the SOX shows a +6% rebound, +3.67% today alone, and right back to the resistance from early March. Today may have surprised some traders but most expected a rebound soon. We were very oversold and right on the edge of the cliff. We had to hold the line or die and after three days of trying the bears could not push us over that cliff. That gave buyers courage and we were off to the races. Semis normally recover first, then techs in general and this is exactly what happened. The Dow recovered to close at 10215 and well off the 10,000 danger point where we had fought the battle all week. The +170 point gain was very strong and came very close to having curbs in on the upside. Can you imagine that? The Nasdaq rallied +57 points to close at 1965 and only a hop, skip and a buy program of points away from 2000. Volume was moderate at 4.2B but the internals were very strong. On Monday we had a 10:1 down day which normally suggests a capitulation event. Today we had nearly a 9:1 up day. Very strong! Unfortunately advancers were only slightly better than 2:1 over decliners. Still some traders not convinced. With good reason I might add. Yes, you knew there was a "however" lurking around here somewhere. The Nasdaq rallied very strong off three days of support at 1900 and closed at 1965. Unfortunately the 1970-1980 level is very strong resistance. If this rally turns into a one day wonder like March-17th then this is the place it will fail. The Dow has a little breathing room from its close at 10215 to strong resistance at 10300-10325. This was the level that stopped the previous rally from last week. Using the broader S&P that room stretches to 1120-1125 from the 1108 close. This suggests the bulls can get a running start in the morning and hit these resistance levels at a dead run but the odds of a wreck are good. I would love to see the rally continue to rebound into April earnings but I keep thinking there is another shoe waiting to drop. We dropped over the last two weeks on profit taking, jobs, economy and terror. The jobs indicators are showing a continued slight improvement and the economic indicators are starting to suggest another uptick as we near the end of the quarter. Earnings are still rising at +16.0% and earnings warnings are very minimal. While everything appears to be on track for stocks we still have the terror component and the election component as wild cards that can appear at any moment. The terror threat that was used as an excuse to take us lower still exists. Today Al Jazeera broadcasted a new tape from Al Qaeda number two man Ayman Al-Zawahri calling on the Pakistan army to depose General Musharraf. He claimed Pakistan was working for America in attacking the Pastun tribes suspected of protecting him. Obviously he is not in the rubble and not trapped in the current standoff. He appears to be alive and well and could try to pull off another attack to emphasize that fact. This raises the weekend event risk for many. I explained last week how earnings and the economy do not always produce higher stock prices but that is a long term outlook not just weeks. We had a true correction on most fronts and traders are starting to see value once again. At least that is what the analysts are saying. I tend to think they got tired of waiting on the sidelines for the selling to stop and finally jumped in for a quick trade. It was more boredom and greed than value. The challenge for Friday will be to hold the gains and try to move closer to those resistance levels I mentioned earlier of 10300/1980/1120. While it would be great to see another breakout I would be really surprised to see it on Friday. Weekend event risk may prevent back to back strong gains. That is ok in my book. If they would just post another gain to get us closer to resistance then we will be ready to start with a clean slate on Monday. Next week is quarter end and we should begin to see some window dressing from funds sitting on cash over the last couple of weeks. Nobody wants to publish statements that show them in cash if a rebound really took hold. If the truth was known I would not doubt if some of the buying today was probably related to window dressing. Wednesday is the end of the month so time's a wasting if they want to put that cash to work. If we can make it to Monday without a retracement and without any terror event then we could be in good shape. The week, other than Monday, is chock full of economic reports that could help build investor confidence. We have NAPM, PMI, Factory Orders, Semi Billings, Construction Spending, ISM and of course the Jobs report on Friday. With the continued weakness in Jobless Claims, the dramatic drop in the Monthly Mass Layoffs and the boost in the Help Wanted Index we may actually get a Jobs report with jobs. That could be a good news bad news event depending on the number. The estimate is for +100K and that is also the right temperature for Goldilocks porridge. Not too hot to stimulate the Fed and not to cold to throw water on the economy but just enough to show that employment is really increasing. Keep your fingers crossed for Friday that we do not see a retracement of the gains and we do see some follow through. Follow through will set us up for next week. Lack of follow through could quickly remove any budding bullish sentiment and put us back in limbo once again. Since the broad market sell off began on March 8th we had an initial four day drop, followed by three days of consolidation. The big rally on the 17th was followed by two days of drops and then three days of consolidation. Is the cycle going to repeat with another lower low ahead? Nobody knows. Keep those fingers crossed but keep those stops in place. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Bulls Stampede - J. Brown To be brief investors sentiment was pretty easy to read today. After weeks of selling and suffering some sharp declines in the last few days investors finally bought the dip boosted by what was probably some frantic short covering. The Dow's 170-point gain ended a 5-day losing streak with 29 of its 30 components closing higher. Meanwhile the biggest action was in the NASDAQ with a 57-point gain (3.02%) marking its best one-day performance in five months. Analysts made a lot of hoopla about the heavy down volume on some of the declines in the last couple of weeks but we saw an equally impressive turnaround today. Advancing stocks swamped decliners 3-to-1 on the NYSE and 22 to 8 on the NASDAQ. Up volume was almost 6-to-1 over down volume on the NYSE and it hit 17-to-1 over down volume on the NASDAQ. We certainly don't see that every day. Yet be careful before your enthusiasm gets out of hand. Seeing the markets finally buy the 5% and 10% corrections in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, respectively; is good news but the recent trend has been for a snap back the opposite direction any time the market makes a big move and today certainly qualifies as big. In summary today's rally was refreshing and instilled some confidence that the bull market is still alive and we'll be on the look out for the next round of bullish play candidates. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 7929 Current : 10218 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10170 50-dma: 10488 200-dma: 9815 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 843 Current : 1109 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1108 50-dma: 1135 200-dma: 1056 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1014 Current : 1425 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1404 50-dma: 1473 200-dma: 1381 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Volatility indices collapsed as the markets produced a huge rally that swept across all sectors save the oil index. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.88 -1.93 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 17.83 -2.66 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 23.70 -2.36 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.70 976,574 679,442 Equity Only 0.60 816,089 488,795 OEX 0.65 30,572 19,975 QQQ 1.11 193,164 213,641 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 70.5 + 0 Bull Correction NASDAQ-100 38.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 76.7 - 3 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 72.0 - 2 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 77.0 - 5 Bull Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.64 10-dma: 1.40 21-dma: 1.46 55-dma: 1.19 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 2123 2259 Decliners 696 788 New Highs 106 79 New Lows 17 16 Up Volume 1569M 1792M Down Vol. 266M 105M Total Vol. 1848M 1927M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/16/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Hmm... there's been a lot of action in the commercial traders' positions the last few weeks. It's almost like they can't decide what direction to go. The latest data shows them switching from net bearish to net bullish again. Small traders are more consistent and remain net bullish although less so than recent weeks. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/24/04 417,490 416,502 988 0.0% 03/02/04 411,932 418,936 (7,004) (0.1%) 03/09/04 418,394 433,237 (14,843) (1.7%) 03/16/04 454,635 449,505 5,130 0.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 141,559 85,171 56,388 24.9% 03/02/04 148,383 84,135 64,248 27.6% 03/09/04 155,947 88,317 67,630 27.7% 03/16/04 159,054 115,023 44,031 25.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Whoa! Commercial traders have turned very bearish on the S&P e-mini's. Contract volume in both longs and shorts have soared but they bought almost 90K new shorts pushing bearish sentiment to new levels not seen in weeks. Small traders also increased their positions but remain bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 02/24/04 320,425 387,255 (66,830) ( 9.4%) 03/02/04 344,805 395,112 (50,307) ( 6.8%) 03/09/04 431,623 485,268 (53,645) ( 5.9%) 03/16/04 472,809 574,241 (101,432) ( 9.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 129,894 63,524 66,370 34.3% 03/02/04 119,382 67,453 51,929 27.8% 03/09/04 135,233 76,558 58,675 27.7% 03/16/04 192,136 96,691 95,445 33.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders are continuing this bullish trend and hit another new high in bullish sentiment. Is everyone just buying the dip? Small traders may have taken notice as they nearly doubled their number of long contracts but then the more than doubled their short contracts. At least the brokers are making some money on commissions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 47,266 40,452 6,814 7.8% 03/02/04 49,959 41,059 8,900 9.8% 03/09/04 57,368 46,082 11,286 10.9% 03/16/04 68,285 54,899 13,386 10.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 13,386 - 03/16/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 12,388 7,310 5,078 25.8% 03/02/04 11,605 7,128 4,477 23.9% 03/09/04 15,533 8,070 7,463 31.6% 03/16/04 27,859 18,333 9,526 20.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Not too much change here for the commercial traders although they've become significantly less bullish than recent weeks. Small traders are moving the other direction and becoming less bearish! Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 27,176 13,918 13,258 32.3% 03/02/04 27,594 14,166 13,428 32.2% 03/09/04 26,867 12,845 14,022 35.3% 03/16/04 32,317 17,514 14,803 29.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 02/24/04 6,509 14,919 (8,410) (39.2%) 03/02/04 6,898 15,874 (8,976) (39.4%) 03/09/04 7,053 19,159 (12,106) (46.2%) 03/16/04 10,002 20,970 (10,968) (35.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Westcorp - WES - close: 43.39 change: +0.81 WHAT TO WATCH: Shooting sharply higher on Tuesday, shares of WES underwent a bit of consolidation yesterday before pushing to new closing highs on Thursday, helped along by the strength in the broad market. Use a trigger of $43.75 (just above today's high) and target a rally to the $47-48 area. Chart= --- Paychex Inc. - PAYX - close: 35.20 change: +1.31 WHAT TO WATCH: The past few months haven't been kind to shares of PAYX, with continued selling pressure creating a pattern of lower highs. But the bulls appear to be finally returning, as the stock is now posting a pattern of higher lows and today's rally blasted through both the 50-dma and the 100-dma, while breaking above the 4-month descending trendline. Use a trigger over today's high and target a rally back to the $39-40 area. Chart= --- Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. - SIRI - close: 3.18 change: +0.09 WHAT TO WATCH: Is the consolidation over? It appears SIRI has finally digested its latest moonshot rally and is close to delivering a breakout from the recent pattern of higher lows. Aggressive entries can be taken on a break above $3.20, while more conservative traders will need to see a move through $3.32, which would indicate increased bullish enthusiasm. Look for a near-term target in the $4.00 area. Chart= --- Black & Decker Corp. - BDK - close: 55.52 change: +1.09 WHAT TO WATCH: Somebody forgot to tell BDK investors that the broad market was undergoing a correction. Rather than pull back, the stock has been holding near its highs and today's broad market advance was the perfect excuse for a breakout. With strong volume supporting the move over $55, this looks like the beginning of a larger move. Either a pullback into the $54.50 area or a breakout to new highs can be used for entry. Chart= --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== ORCL $11.94 - The stock is just a shadow of its former self, but ORCL looks like it is at an actionable point for the bulls. After pulling back to confirm strong support near $11, ORCL has rebounded strongly over the past couple days. Use a pullback near the $11.50 level to initiate new positions and target a rally back to the 50-dma, just over $13. ROST $29.95 - Retail stocks were back in favor on Thursday and ROST was no exception. Rallying back to resistance, the stock looks ready to break into the gap left behind when it gapped lower earlier this month. Use a trigger of $30.15 (just over the 30-dma) and target a return to the $33 area. JPM $41.50 - Brokerage stocks had a great day on Thursday, with the XBD index adding 2.5%. JPM once again rebounded from the site of the 50-dma, just above strong support near $40. Entries look favorable on one more dip near the 50-dma in anticipation of a break from the near-term bearish trend and a return to the recent highs just below $44. GLW $10.91 - Aggressive Tech investors finally got the bargain they were waiting for in shares of GLW, as the stock came down to test strong support near $10, also right at the 200-dma. If the bulls were going to buy the dip, this was the place to make a stand. Another dip near the 200-dma looks favorable for entry, targeting a rise back over the $12 level. Use a tight stop just under $10. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 03-25-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: None Closed Plays: BBY, HGSI, KKD Stock Splits: None Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= None ================================================================= Closed Plays ================================================================= Best Buy Co. - BBY - close: 48.53 change: +2.09 stop: 48.10 Long overdue for a decent bounce, the Retail index (RLX.X) tacked on a very impressive 2.5% on Thursday, brining it right back to key support/resistance near $390. BBY did its part to add to those gains following comments from UBS that the recent weakness is overdone. Those comments along with the broad market strength sent the stock to a 4.5% advance, bringing it back above the original breakdown level. With earnings slated to be released on March 31st, it looks like we did the right thing by tightening our stop to just above $48, effectively getting us out of the play near the breakeven point. Traders still in the play should look to exit on any early weakness ahead of the weekend. Picked on March 10th at $48.50 Change since picked +0.03 Earnings Date 3/30/04 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume = 3.64 mln Chart = --- Human Genome - HGSI - cls: 12.25 chng: +0.86 stop: 12.50 A 7.5% rally is not what we like to see in our bearish plays and HGSI's rally looks all the more bullish with volume running more than double the average on Thursday. Investors cheered the announcement that the CEO will retire, along with a statement that the company will refocus on only those product candidates that have the highest potential. Today's rally erased the past 8 days worth of losses and looks very bullish. Rather than wait for our stop to be triggered -- most likely tomorrow -- we're going to close it tonight. Use any early weakness tomorrow as a better exit opportunity. Picked on March 14th at $12.34 Change since picked -0.09 Earnings Date N/A Average Daily Volume = 1.40 mln Chart = --- Krispy Kreme Doughnut - KKD - cls: 34.18 chg: +0.57 stop: 34.41 A little oversold bounce we can handle but when the markets come close to having trading curbs applied because the bulls are stampeding makes it tough to deal with when you're short. KKD's decline seemed to stall most of the week as the Dow found support at the 10,000 level. The latter wasn't a surprise but today's rally in KKD pegged our stop loss at $34.41 to close us out. Picked on March 21 at $33.06 Gain since picked: + 1.12 Earnings Date 03/10/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 798 thousand Chart = ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- None ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change WFC Wells Fargo & Co 57.14 +0.57 BAC Bank of America 79.74 +1.43 HD Home Depot 37.15 +1.16 JPM J.P.Morgan 41.50 +0.76 MET Metlife Inc 35.09 +0.57 KMB Kimberly Clark 61.44 +1.09 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- ATVI Activision Inc 15.14 +1.52 SGMS Scientific Games 18.94 +1.17 IMM Immtech Intl Inc 18.10 +2.11 TRMM TRM Corp 18.65 +1.75 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- AVP Avon Products Inc 75.35 +4.78 MBT Mobile Telesys 123.07 +10.45 NSM National Semiconductor 43.30 +2.94 VIP Vimpel Communication 98.48 +10.05 BDK Black & Decker 55.52 +1.09 RHAT Red Hat Inc 22.38 +2.37 DVA Davita Inc 46.63 +1.53 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- CVX ChevronTexaco 84.68 -1.20 COP ConocoPhillips 66.04 -1.21 MRO Marathon Oil 30.78 -1.50 KMI Kinder Morgan 61.09 -2.59 AFCO Applied Films Corp 27.49 -1.05 SRC Sierra Pacific Resources 36.75 -1.85 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AHC Amerada Hess Corp 62.22 -1.11 ADC Agree Realty Corp 32.60 -0.09 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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