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Daily Newsletter, Monday, 03/29/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                   Monday 03-29-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:  Two out of Three
Watch List:   JNPR, APA, MVSN, LGND

===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     03-29-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10329.63 +116.66 10350.45 10212.91 1.65 bln   2139/ 710
NASDAQ   1992.57 + 32.55  1996.23  1975.43 1.69 bln   2232/ 899
S&P 100   550.46 +  6.94   551.65   543.52   Totals   4371/1609
S&P 500  1122.47 + 14.41  1124.37  1108.06
RUS 2000  583.39 + 10.47   583.47   572.92
DJ TRANS 2885.91 + 50.01  2891.38  2837.86
VIX        16.50 -  0.83    17.17    16.29
VXO        16.23 -  0.98    16.70    15.80
VXN        23.16 +  0.12    23.66    22.74
Total Volume 3,761M
Total UpVol  3,197M
Total DnVol    506M
52wk Highs     359
52wk Lows       28
TRIN          0.36
PUT/CALL      0.67
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Two out of Three
by James Brown

Buyers returned refreshed and ready for a new week and sent the
Dow Industrials to their second triple-digit gain in the last
three sessions.   The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 joined the rally
with the S&P moving back into the green for 2004.  Fueling the
fire was another round of upgrades for blue chip stocks and more
merger and acquisition news.

The rally was fairly widespread.  Oil service and homebuilders
were the only groups to turn lower and then only with mild
losses. The buying was very strong in tech-related sectors.  The
GHA hardware index charged higher for a 2.35% gain after Hewlett
Packard (HPQ) got some positive coverage from Barron's magazine
over the weekend.  HPQ, a Dow component, jumped 3.6% on the
session as investors speculated that the company would use its
$6.5 billion in cash to bump up its cash dividend or its stock
buyback program.  Networking stocks (NWX +1.92%) enjoyed a strong
session after President Bush pledged to "universal, affordable
access" to Internet broadband by 2007.  His rival Kerry has
hinted at similar ideas.

The semiconductor sector continued its bullish push higher with a
1.73% gain in the SOX after the CEO for STMicroElectronics (STM)
told the press he expects worldwide chip sales to jump 20% in
2004.  This is not a new prediction.  The Semiconductor Industry
Association is forecasting 19% growth and the Gartner group is
forecasting more than 20% but it doesn't hurt investor sentiment
to hear the positive forecast again.  Unfortunately, while Monday
was a strong session the SOX remains just under resistance at the
490 level.

Tech stocks were also boosted by a 6.2% rally in Qualcomm (QCOM).
The $3.85 jump to $65.61 sent QCOM to new 2 1/2 year highs after
Schwab SoundView upgraded the stock from "neutral" to "out
perform" and raised their price target from $55 to $75.  Schwab
believes that QCOM has significantly improved its position in the
handset market and is gaining on the industry leader Nokia (NOK).
Meanwhile blue chips enjoyed a number of positive upgrades with
General Electric (GE) sent higher after UBS raised their outlook
for the stock.  Beverage-maker Coca-Cola (KO) was upgraded to
"out perform" by Bear Stearns while Prudential upgraded Citigroup
(C) to "overweight".

It wouldn't be a Monday without some merger news and today didn't
disappoint.  Lyondell Chemical (LYO) declared that it would buy
Millennium Chemicals (MCH) for $1 billion in stock.  According to
the news this would make the combined company the No 3 chemical
producer in N. America behind Dow Chemical (DOW) and DuPont Co
(DD).  Shares of LYO dropped 3.45% while MCH gapped higher to end
the day with a 20% gain.

Amgen Inc (AMGN), the biggest component in the BTK biotech index,
also got in on the M&A activity when it announced it would buy
the remaining 79% of Tularik (TLRK) it didn't already own.  AMGN
will spend $1.3 billion in stock, which values TLRK at $25 per
share.  Tularik doesn't currently have any drugs on the market
but is in the late stage clinical trials in a treatment for liver
cancer.  Shares of TLRK rallied 44% to $24.53.  AMGN added 2.5%
by the close and the BTK rose 2.32% while the DRG drug index
climbed 1.47%.

Overall it was a very positive session.  Market internals for the
U.S. exchanges showed advancing stocks sprinting past decliners
3-to-1 on the NYSE and 22-to-9 on the NASDAQ.  Up volume was very
strong over down volume at 7.7-to-1 on the NYSE and 6.6-to-1 on
the NASDAQ.  European stocks also reported a very strong day with
bullish trifecta in the British FTSE, German DAX and the French
CAC indices.

Technical traders should also be excited to see the bullish
breakouts over horizontal resistance in the NASDAQ Composite, the
NASDAQ-100 (NDX) and the Russell 2000.  Now if we can just get
the NASDAQ composite back above the 2000 level we might really
send the bears back into hibernation for spring.  Today's rally
also pushed the GHA hardware index, the INX Internet index and
the BKX banking index above their 50-dma's.  Currently trading
right under resistance at their own 50-dma's is the Dow
Transports (TRAN), the GSO software index, the BTK biotech index,
the CYC cyclical index and the IUX insurance index.

The late day bounce from the 10,300 level in the Dow Industrials
is pretty encouraging.  It would also be great to see the S&P 500
breakout over the 1125 level.  However, even if we see a little
bit of profit taking tomorrow, which should not be a surprise
after the bounce from last week's lows, I think the stage has
been set for an up week.  Investors are focusing on what should
be a positive jobs number on Friday and what should be another
positive earnings season that begins in two weeks.

Chart of the Dow Industrials:



Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:



Chart of the S&P 500 Index:



Tuesday might be a little quiet with very little corporate
earnings news and only the Consumer Confidence number that comes
out after the opening bell.  As long as the confidence number
isn't a disaster the bullish tone should remain.  Wednesday
brings the Factory Orders and the Chicago PMI report.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 26.21 change: +0.84

WHAT TO WATCH: After being stuck in a sideways consolidation for
the past few weeks, JNPR finally caught a bit of buying interest
after filling its January gap last week.  Monday's rally
propelled the stock right up to horizontal resistance at the 50-
dma, and it looks like a breakout rally could be in the making.
Use a trigger over today's high and target a rally up to the $30
level.  Watch for potential resistance near $28 on the way up.




---

Apache Corp. - APA - close: 42.09 change: +0.56

WHAT TO WATCH: We've had our eye on shares of APA for awhile now,
as the stock continues to build a price pattern that hints of a
coming breakout.  The trend of higher lows remains intact, even
after the recent selloff in the broad market and resistance
remains firm just over $43.  Use an entry trigger at $43.50 and
should the breakout materialize, we can look for a rally up to
the $47-48 area.




---

Macrovision Corp. - MVSN - close: 18.70 change: +0.45

WHAT TO WATCH: After bottoming near $17, MVSN has been trying to
build a base for a new rally and today's pop up to the $18.75
resistance level looks like the beginning of that move.  Use an
entry trigger at $19 and target a rally back to the site of the
50-dma and 200-dma just over $21.




---

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. - LGND - close: 20.54 change: +1.38

WHAT TO WATCH: Although it has been a volatile ride, shares of
LGND have been in a pretty impressive uptrend the past couple
months, vaulting from the $14 area to above $20 with today's
breakout.  But it isn't today's breakout that is critical.  The
stock is now just below its 2002 highs, peeking over that level
intraday.  Use a breakout over today's high as an entry trigger
and target a rally towards next strong resistance at $24.




---

===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

CREE $21.88 - Is the bearish trend changing?  CREE has been
meandering about its 100-dma for the past couple weeks and on
Monday it vaulted higher by more than 5%, finally closing over
the descending trendline that began in the middle of January.
Use a pullback near the 20-dma for entry and target a rally up to
the 50-dma.

AMSC $13.28 - Abruptly breaking the downtrend of the past 2
months, AMSC launched on strong volume on Monday, gaining more
than 9%.  That's clearly too much of a move to chase, but a
pullback near the $12.50 level should afford a solid entry before
the rally continues up towards strong resistance at $15.

CSCO $23.92 - Has the profit taking finally run its course?
After being locked in a 2-month downtrend, shares of CSCO appear
to be in the final stages of building a new base.  Monday's rally
brought the stock right up to strong resistance at $24 and a
breakout above that level could really generate some follow
through buying.  Use a trigger over the 50-dma and target a near-
term move to the top of the gap near $26.


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                   Monday 03-29-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Loss Updates:   LEXR

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Updates
==================================================================

LEXR - tech stock long play
  We're going to raise our stop loss from $14.49
  to $14.75.  LEXR did hit our TRIGGER at $16.01
  on today's move over its 200-dma.


==================================================================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

C       Citigroup                  51.32    +1.26
TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             90.51    +0.51
SC      Shell Transport & Trading  40.42    +0.53
RD      Royal Dutch Petrol         47.14    +0.61
ONE     Bank One Corp              54.80    +1.06
NTT     Nippon Tel & Tel (ADS)     27.54    +0.73
BAC     Bank of America Corp       81.04    +0.94
MRK     Merck & Co                 44.57    +0.57
MO      Altria Group Inc           54.28    +0.67
HBC     HSBC Holdings Plc          74.78    +1.28
WB      Wachovia Corp              46.67    +0.67
FNM     Fannie Mae                 75.07    +1.56
JPM     JP Morgan Chase & Co       42.06    +0.81
BP      BP Plc                     49.45    +0.99
BCS     Barclays Plc (ADR)         35.91    +0.61
AIG     American Internat Group    71.56    +1.37
WM      Washington Mutual Inc      43.00    +0.64
UN      Unilever N.V.              67.83    +0.92


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

TIWI    Telesys Intl Wireless Inc  11.29    +1.14

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

TM      Toyota Motor Corp (ADS)    74.26    +1.25
QCOM    Qualcomm Inc               65.61    +3.85
HDI     Harley-Davidson Inc        52.80    +1.55
ERTS    Electonic Arts Inc         53.87    +2.09
MBT     Mobile Telesys OJSC (ADS) 125.95    +4.19
CTAS    Cintas Corp                44.26    +1.57
CECO    Career Education Corp      57.59    +2.43


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

DISH    Echostar Comm Corp         32.59    -1.11
CEO     Cnooc Ltd (ADR)            40.60    -1.10
BXP     Boston Properties Inc      53.21    -1.07

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

None


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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