PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 03-30-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Sleep Walking Watch List: YUM, CSCO, AAPL, FLEX Market Sentiment: Window Dressing ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 03-30-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10381.70 + 52.10 10387.26 10306.15 1.63 bln 2059/1066 NASDAQ 2000.63 + 8.10 2000.68 1981.44 1.60 bln 1893/1205 S&P 100 552.53 + 2.07 552.74 548.91 Totals 3952/2371 S&P 500 1127.00 + 4.53 1127.60 1119.66 W5000 11037.06 + 54.50 11039.40 10956.20 SOX 487.03 - 0.50 487.57 478.22 RUS 2000 589.40 + 6.01 589.41 582.14 DJ TRANS 2883.64 - 2.30 2885.77 2862.04 VIX 16.28 - 0.22 16.80 16.13 VXO (VIX-O)15.99 + 0.03 16.92 15.96 VXN 23.18 + 0.02 23.70 23.04 Total Volume 3,541M Total UpVol 2,293M Total DnVol 1,107M Total Adv 4433 Total Dcl 2575 52wk Highs 362 52wk Lows 22 TRIN 0.87 NAZTRIN 0.91 PUT/CALL 0.61 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Sleep Walking by Jim Brown The markets woke up with a hangover this morning after triple digit gains on Monday and promptly went back to sleep. The minor wandering movements for the majority of the day could be seen as traders sleep walking through the session while waiting for the floor show to begin tomorrow. With the economic calendar light for Mon/Tue the economic overdose begins in earnest on Wednesday. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily The minor economics for the day included the Chain Store Sales Snapshot which came in a -1.9% for the week compared to a minor gain of only +0.2% the week before. Analysts claim the constantly rising price of gasoline is taking a painful amount of money from the pockets of consumers. This cash drain is hitting retailers where is hurts, right in the spring product changeover. That extra energy tax does not appear to be disappearing any time soon. Oil closed at $36.12 again after rebounding off the $35 support level we have seen over the last month. The bounce was due to conflicting claims that OPEC was still committed to production cuts to be announced at their meeting on Wednesday. With global consumption continuing to rise any production cuts would guarantee even higher prices for oil. Retailers will have to hold out for the wave of tax refunds to boost their sagging business and offset this undeclared energy tax. We will have earnings from Best Buy and Circuit City before the bell on Wednesday. This could give us a clue for the present trend but retailers in general have been upgrading guidance over the last couple weeks. WMT and TGT both affirmed the high end of guidance just last week. Oil Chart - Daily The only other economic report today was the Consumer Confidence for March. The consensus had been for a drop to 85.8 from 87.3 in February. The headline number came in higher at 88.3 but the really good news was an unusually large number of revisions to prior months. February was revised up +1.2, January +1.2 and December +3.1. These back month revisions are not really important on a current basis but it is comforting to see such broad improvements. With the revisions the March number ended up nearly unchanged and better than expected. The present situation component rose just under a point and the future expectations fell just under a point. Clearly consumers have shaken off the Madrid bombings and the drop in the market and are holding their current levels of optimism. Considering the political mud slinging about the state of the economy this is actually a bullish sign. It suggests consumers are already glazing over from the mud fight and may not let the comments depress them further. Those planning to buy a home rose slightly due to the lower interest rates but those planning to buy an auto dropped substantially from 7.2 to 5.1. This is the lowest level since 1995. The positive Consumer Confidence report provided the only real excitement for the morning and helped pull the markets back from an opening slump. The bounce was minimal and brief but it did help erase the negative bias from the Chain Store Sales. Unfortunately the markets were unable to retain any momentum and slipped back in their rut to wait for the rest of this weeks reports. After a triple digit gain on Monday and an overall bullish tone for the prior three days just consolidating at the highs and in positive territory was a very good sign. The Dow stagnated just under resistance at 10350 and Nasdaq seemed to fixate on 1990 as the price magnet for the day. The Dow was never in danger but the Nasdaq was crippled from the opening bell due to weakness in the semiconductor index. The SOX was down -8.75 or -1.8% at midday on weakness in INTC and AMAT and others. Semis lead techs and techs lead rallies but the reverse is also true on sell offs. Without the SOX to lead the Nasdaq was in trouble. The NDX was also challenged with strong resistance at 1445 and that level held until well after the 3:PM rebound had started. The NDX has strong resistance at the 50dma at 1455 and again at horizontal resistance at 1460. Moving higher is still going to be a challenge but a break over those levels should generate some serious short covering. SOX Chart - Daily NDX Chart - Daily The strongest index for the day was the Russell 2000 with the RUT rebounding to the 590 level and showing almost no weakness all afternoon. This is very encouraging because strength in the Russell normally means mutual funds entering the market. The Russell broke through resistance at its 50dma at 582.50 and closed at the high of the day only 11 points from the magic 600 level. This is a very key indicator for any broad market rally and suggests the buyers are back in control on the mutual fund level. ICI made the formal announcement today that February fund flows had fallen to only $26.2 billion from January's $43B. We already knew there was a drop in flows and we also know there were negative flows two weeks ago. That suggests March is going to be well under February. This is even more important when you look at the Russell gains over the last four days. It bottomed out at 555 last Wednesday and now it is closing in on 600. As of the close today we have already rebounded +6.3% from last weeks lows. For me this is a lot of conviction that this rally has legs and the funds are behind it. This suggests the negative cash flows from two weeks ago are history and funds are eagerly anticipating a big flow of retirement cash now that the quarter is over. Russell Chart - Daily Another index jumping out in the lead today was the Internet Index. The $IIX and the $DOT both broke out of their January downtrends on leadership by YHOO and EBAY. This helped offset some of the Nasdaq weakness from the SOX. The move today capped four days of strong gains and suggests many shorts got caught by surprise. $IIX Internet Index Chart - Daily While the rally continuation today was encouraging there were still signs that it was primarily window dressing and today was the final markup of prices. Now all they have to do is hold them at these levels into Wednesday's close. They will probably try to push them a little higher tomorrow to get the Dow back into positive territory for the year. The Dow closed 2003 at 10453 and we are still about -72 points below that level. The Nasdaq closed 2003 at 2003 and we are VERY close to going positive for the year with today's close at 2000. The S&P-500, the index of choice for comparison of mutual fund performance closed 2003 at 1112 and the 1127 print today pushed that index back into a gain for the year. The Russell is still the winner now up +6% from the 2003 close at 556. Bonds started the day stronger on multiple fronts including short covering in front of Japan's fiscal year end tomorrow. Traders are afraid of any last minute window dressing in the currency markets to try and clean up the massive amount of dollars Japan has been spending to support the Yen. The Yen is on the verge of hitting a three-year high against the dollar and suggests that the intervention suspension talk may have more truth than Japan would admit. Also helping bonds were some negative comments about the lack of jobs on the wires. Bernanke upheld the party line in his Fedspeak for the day. He said we are 2.5 years into the recovery but job growth was still distressingly slow. He also said he expects jobs to recover before year end. This has been their expectation for quite come time and it has yet to come to pass. Bonds ended the day selling off their gains and the ten-year yield closing nearly flat for the day. Traders are facing a mountain of economic reports for the rest of the week and there were adjustments of positions on both sides. Ten-Year Yields - Daily Bonds are set for a volatile session on Wednesday despite any equity market manipulation by the big money to close the first quarter in the green. The economic reports on tap are the Mortgage Application Survey and no surprises are expected there with interest rates still low. The first stumbling block for bonds will be the NY-NAPM. The report has shown sharply accelerating business conditions in New York for the last three months. Last months report hit a new high but there were several components with the early stages of a reversal. Traders will be looking for those to rebound again and hopefully not be worse. The NY-NAPM number for Feb was 267.2 and there is no estimate for March. Next up is the Chicago PMI and it also dropped in Feb from a nine year high in January. Nobody complained about the drop considering the record high in January but another continuation of that drop in March could have trader worry resurfacing that the economic rebound has already peaked. Factory Orders are expected to climb +1.5% from the -0.5% drop in February. Again, a rebound here will bring a sigh of relief where another dip or minimal gain will bring back those recovery fears. These reports are small potatoes compared to the ISM on Thursday and the Jobs report on Friday. The ISM is expected to drop nearly a point for the second consecutive monthly decrease and we could really use a positive surprise here. This is a key indicator of overall economic activity and two down months will not be greeted warmly. The report with the biggest focus for the week is the Employment Report for March, which is due out on Friday. We all remember the estimate games that have been making the rounds for the last four months. The general consensus estimates have been in the 150K range and they have yet to come close. In recent months whisper numbers have risen to the ranks of the insane with up to 350K being tossed about. Last month it was a little more reserved with many of the big guessers a little too ashamed to show their faces back on the air after missing the mark so badly for the prior three months. Their back! Yes, whether it is the spring weather, warm sunshine or just an infection of March Madness the numbers making the rounds are quickly reaching astronomical proportions again. The official "consensus" number is +100,000 but the official "whisper" number is +125K and easing toward 150K. The bigger names are shaping up like this. Lehman has targeted +95K, Goldman Sachs +160K, Wachovia +225K, TheStreet.com +250K and the winner at +350K was an analyst at Prudential. He said he would raise his official estimate to 350K but too many of his clients were already laughing at him at +175K. Wise move. Continuing to raise your public estimates to multiples of the official consensus after being publicly humiliated for multiple consecutive months has got to hurt your credibility. It is like betting on a coin flip and always calling heads. It will eventually end up heads but you could lose a lot of money waiting. In Vegas I have seen fortunes lost on red/black bets on the roulette table. I once saw a string of 37 reds spins. Gamblers were 20 deep around the table all trying to bet their bankroll on black because it just "had" to hit. That is the way I see the jobs numbers. Eventually they will be right but it may not be this month. The proliferation of high whisper numbers has the potential to depress the market more than impress it. Once everyone begins to expect a blowout anything else is a letdown. This is what I expect for Friday. Even if we hit the official +100K number the majority of traders will be disappointed. It could be just like an inline earnings report for Intel. Yawn! Is that all? A four-day rally with the Dow +370 points above last weeks lows is begging for some consolidation. The abundance of economic reports ahead should give traders plenty of excuses for that consolidation. Whether the porridge is too hot, too cold or just right the expectations are already priced into the market. Much of the impact of those expectations was aided by the end of quarter window dressing. Those artificially inflated gains also came on very low volume where the recent sell offs have been on stronger than normal volume. On Tuesday the NYSE and the Nasdaq barely broke 1.6B shares each. This is very light, almost holiday volume and the third consecutive day for volume across all exchanges to barely reach 3.5B shares. This is not a good sign technically. We are also seeing an increase in put buying with the index put/call ratio rising to 1.45 today. This is actually good since it shows a level of fear in the marketplace that is not being reflected in the VIX which has fallen to 16.29. This is definitely shaping up to be an exciting week. That would be a definite improvement over the Tuesday sleep walk. If we do manage to go higher from here the Dow has only minor resistance at 10400 which develops into major resistance in the 10450-10475 range. This is exactly where the Dow needs to be to close the quarter in the green. The Nasdaq is at critical resistance at 2000. It must move higher to break the current downtrend since January and there is plenty of resistance to battle. Helping the Nasdaq will be a little breathing room on the SOX before it hits downtrend resistance just under 500. An even bigger help to the Nasdaq would be a Russell move over 590 resistance giving it a clear run to 600. This more than anything could provide the breakout bias to all the indexes. If the funds have already finished their end of quarter small cap shopping then extending the Russell rally could be a challenge. Let's hope they saved some pocket change to dress the tape at Wednesday's close. With all the economic potholes ahead I would be very leery of opening any new long positions. We need to see some consolidation of the current gains and digest the economic news before moving higher. Next week is plenty of time to join the party if the rally has legs. Of course economic blowouts across the board could push us higher but after four days of our coin turning up heads do your really want to bet heads again? Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Yum! Brands Inc. - YUM - close: 38.65 change: +0.66 WHAT TO WATCH: This isn't the first time in recent weeks that we've looked at YUM, as it first caught our attention with its breakout to new all-time highs back in February. After a healthy consolidation, it looks like the stock is on the move again and today's thrust to a new closing high looks encouraging. Pullbacks near $37.50 still look good for entry ahead of the breakout and then a move through $39.05 can be used for momentum entries. --- Cisco Systems Inc. - CSCO - close: 23.93 change: +0.08 WHAT TO WATCH: Since we looked at it yesterday, CSCO has edged a bit closer to its breakout level and it looks poised to make that move quite soon. Use a trigger over the 50-dma and target a rally back over the $26 level. Watch for potential resistance near the bottom of the February gap at $25. --- Apple Computer, Inc. - AAPL - close: 27.92 change: +0.01 WHAT TO WATCH: For having such a small part of the PC market, AAPL is certainly performing well as a stock. After bouncing from the 200-dma in December, the stock has been building a very nice pattern of higher highs and higher lows and is on the cusp of a new breakout. Use a trigger over $28.20 and target next resistance near $31. --- Flextronics International Ltd - FLEX - close: 17.15 change: +0.61 WHAT TO WATCH: Along with the rest of the market, FLEX has been busy trying to form a bottom over the past couple weeks and with price moving right up to the edge of confirming its recent double top pattern, the stock looks primed for a breakout play. Use a trigger over $17.30 and target a rally up to the $18.75 area. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== ELBO $29.10 - After nearly 3 months of sideways churn, ELBO made an impressive upward thrust over the past two days and looks headed for a retest of the $32-33 resistance level. Now that the October gap has been filled, any dip near $28 can be used for bargain entries ahead of a continuation of the fledgling rally. NVDA $26.16 - It would be hard to tell that the Chip stocks have been weak lately if you were to just look at a chart of NVDA. The stock launched higher a week ago and has been rallying strong ever since, notching a new 9 month high today. The stock is pretty extended here an with resistance looming at $27.50, it may be prudent to wait for a pullback near support before playing. Then look for a continued rally up to the $30 area. LU $4.13 - With the strength in Networking stocks, LU finally cracked the upside of its descending channel on Tuesday and if it can break the 50-dma, we can look for a continued rally towards $4.50 and then $4.75. Wait for the move through the 50-dma before playing. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Window Dressing - J. Brown It's been a pretty impressive week thus far. The bulls have managed to orchestrate an encore performance on top of yesterday's big gains. It is encouraging to see the NASDAQ close above 2000, the Wilshire 5000 index close above the 11,000 mark and the GHA hardware index, the CYC cyclical index and the OIX oil index all close above their 50-dma's. However, my concern now is that not only are we short-term overbought but this could be nothing more than end-of-the-quarter window dressing by mutual funds. However, this time we may not see any window un-dressing until after the Jobs report on Friday. Right now Wall Street is once again cautiously optimistic for the non-farms payroll report despite being let down again and again. Hope springs eternal but it will have to endure a number of economic reports this week before Friday's jobs report. Tomorrow is the Factory Orders and Chicago PMI while Thursday brings the weekly initial jobless claims, the auto and truck sales numbers for March (which are expected to be positive), the construction spending numbers and the ISM index. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 7929 Current : 10381 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10210 50-dma: 10472 200-dma: 9832 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 843 Current : 1127 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1110 50-dma: 1134 200-dma: 1058 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1014 Current : 1445 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1410 50-dma: 1467 200-dma: 1384 ----------------------------------------------------------------- As investors buy the "correction" the volatility indices are shooting back toward their multi-year lows. No surprises here. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.28 -0.22 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 15.99 +0.03 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 23.18 +0.02 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.61 685,330 418,968 Equity Only 0.46 581,353 267,971 OEX 1.17 15,746 18,486 QQQ 0.30 98,732 29,389 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 70.9 + 0 Bull Correction NASDAQ-100 39.0 + 1 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 80.0 + 3 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 73.4 + 1 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 77.0 + 0 Bull Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.74 10-dma: 1.20 21-dma: 1.42 55-dma: 1.17 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1903 1831 Decliners 915 1223 New Highs 159 110 New Lows 10 7 Up Volume 1155M 893M Down Vol. 444M 573M Total Vol. 1614M 1582M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/23/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders pared back their positions in both long and short plays but they remain next short, which is a change in sentiment over last week. Small traders significantly altered their short positions but remain net long. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/02/04 411,932 418,936 (7,004) (0.1%) 03/09/04 418,394 433,237 (14,843) (1.7%) 03/16/04 454,635 449,505 5,130 0.6% 03/23/04 401,456 418,732 (17,273) (2.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/02/04 148,383 84,135 64,248 27.6% 03/09/04 155,947 88,317 67,630 27.7% 03/16/04 159,054 115,023 44,031 25.3% 03/23/04 130,648 89,943 40,705 18.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercial traders chopped off a large chunk of open positions from both their longs and shorts and what was left behind is their most bullish reading in weeks. Small traders are still bullish too. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/02/04 344,805 395,112 (50,307) ( 6.8%) 03/09/04 431,623 485,268 (53,645) ( 5.9%) 03/16/04 472,809 574,241 (101,432) ( 9.7%) 03/23/04 268,647 294,930 (26,283) ( 4.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/02/04 119,382 67,453 51,929 27.8% 03/09/04 135,233 76,558 58,675 27.7% 03/16/04 192,136 96,691 95,445 33.0% 03/23/04 131,879 59,210 72,669 38.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 We see the same reduction in outstanding positions in the NDX futures but commercial traders have become more bullish on the NASDAQ while small traders have become bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/02/04 49,959 41,059 8,900 9.8% 03/09/04 57,368 46,082 11,286 10.9% 03/16/04 68,285 54,899 13,386 10.9% 03/23/04 52,014 34,017 17,997 20.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 13,386 - 03/16/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/02/04 11,605 7,128 4,477 23.9% 03/09/04 15,533 8,070 7,463 31.6% 03/16/04 27,859 18,333 9,526 20.6% 03/23/04 9,884 12,887 (3,003) (13.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Ouch! Commercial traders have switched from bullish to almost bearish with a large drop in long positions and a big jump in shorts. Meanwhile small traders have moved from strongly bearish to bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/02/04 27,594 14,166 13,428 32.2% 03/09/04 26,867 12,845 14,022 35.3% 03/16/04 32,317 17,514 14,803 29.7% 03/23/04 23,048 22,119 929 2.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/02/04 6,898 15,874 (8,976) (39.4%) 03/09/04 7,053 19,159 (12,106) (46.2%) 03/16/04 10,002 20,970 (10,968) (35.4%) 03/23/04 8,344 6,734 1,610 10.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 03-30-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: SPF Stock Splits: NSSC, WRI Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= SPF - active trader long raise stop loss from $54.50 to $58.95. Prepare to exit at our official exit price of $59.50. -Editor's note: If you're looking for a new playin the homebuilding sector check out DHI. ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- NSSC declares a 2-for-1 stock split This afternoon NAPCO Security Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares in the form of a 100% stock dividend. The dividend is payable on April 27th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of April 13, 2004. Post-split NSSC will have 6.9 million shares outstanding. About the company: NAPCO Security Systems, Inc. is one of the world's leading manufacturers of technologically advanced electronic security equipment including burglary and fire alarm systems, access control products and electronic locking devices. The Company's products, including those of Alarm Lock and Continental Instruments, feature some of the most popular and best-selling control panels, sensors, locking devices and access control systems. They are used in residential, commercial, institutional and industrial applications. NAPCO security products have earned a reputation for technical excellence, reliability and innovation, poising the Company for revenue growth in the rapidly expanding electronic security market; a market whose current size exceeds $25 billion. (source: company press release) --- WRI 3-for-2 split effective today Late this morning Weingarten Realty Investors (NYSE:WRI) announced that its 3-for-2 stock split declared by its Board of Directors on February 20th, 2004 will be effective today (March 30th, 2004) after the close of business. Unfortunately WRI never issued any press release about their split announcement back in February. About the company: Weingarten Realty Investors is a Houston, Texas based real estate investment trust with 334 income-producing and new development properties in 20 states that spans the southern half of the United States from coast to coast. Included in the portfolio are 273 neighborhood and community shopping centers and 61 industrial properties aggregating 44.6 million square feet. (source: company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change SC Shell Transport & Trading 41.02 +0.60 RD Royal Dutch Petrol 47.70 +0.56 CVX ChevronTexaco Corp 87.08 +1.70 BAC Bank of America 81.77 +0.73 C Citigroup 51.94 +0.62 UN Unilever N.V. 68.50 +0.67 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- WRNC Warnaco Group Inc 20.00 +1.04 PXLW Pixelworks Inc 16.96 +1.41 ALDN Aladdin Knowledge System 19.79 +4.20 VASC Vascular Solutions Inc 9.78 +3.17 NSSC Napco Security Systems 17.11 +2.49 CBTE Commonwealth Biotech 10.41 +3.60 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- PEP Pepsico Inc 53.28 +1.07 BP BP Plc 51.12 +1.67 COF Capital One Financial 75.78 +1.09 MON Monsanto 36.14 +1.12 SSP E.W.Scripps Co 100.27 +1.37 ADSK Autodesk Inc 31.47 +1.54 SPF Standard Pacific 59.26 +3.00 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- WFMI Whole Foods Market Inc 72.98 -1.03 WPI Watson Pharmaceuticals 42.42 -1.08 MATR Matria Healthcare Inc 26.21 -1.85 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- KZL Kerzner Intl Ltd 43.79 -2.39 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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