Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 03/30/2004

Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 03-30-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Sleep Walking
Watch List:       YUM, CSCO, AAPL, FLEX
Market Sentiment: Window Dressing

MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
      03-30-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10381.70 + 52.10 10387.26 10306.15 1.63 bln 2059/1066
NASDAQ   2000.63 +  8.10  2000.68  1981.44 1.60 bln 1893/1205
S&P 100   552.53 +  2.07   552.74   548.91   Totals 3952/2371
S&P 500  1127.00 +  4.53  1127.60  1119.66 
W5000   11037.06 + 54.50 11039.40 10956.20
SOX       487.03 -  0.50   487.57   478.22
RUS 2000  589.40 +  6.01   589.41   582.14
DJ TRANS 2883.64 -  2.30  2885.77  2862.04   
VIX        16.28 -  0.22    16.80    16.13
VXO (VIX-O)15.99 +  0.03    16.92    15.96
VXN        23.18 +  0.02    23.70    23.04 
Total Volume 3,541M
Total UpVol  2,293M
Total DnVol  1,107M
Total Adv  4433
Total Dcl  2575
52wk Highs  362
52wk Lows    22
TRIN       0.87
NAZTRIN    0.91
PUT/CALL   0.61

Market Wrap

Sleep Walking
by Jim Brown

The markets woke up with a hangover this morning after triple
digit gains on Monday and promptly went back to sleep. The
minor wandering movements for the majority of the day could
be seen as traders sleep walking through the session while 
waiting for the floor show to begin tomorrow. With the 
economic calendar light for Mon/Tue the economic overdose 
begins in earnest on Wednesday. 

Dow Chart - Daily

Nasdaq Chart - Daily


The minor economics for the day included the Chain Store
Sales Snapshot which came in a -1.9% for the week compared
to a minor gain of only +0.2% the week before. Analysts
claim the constantly rising price of gasoline is taking
a painful amount of money from the pockets of consumers. 
This cash drain is hitting retailers where is hurts, right
in the spring product changeover. That extra energy tax
does not appear to be disappearing any time soon. Oil 
closed at $36.12 again after rebounding off the $35 
support level we have seen over the last month. The bounce
was due to conflicting claims that OPEC was still committed
to production cuts to be announced at their meeting on
Wednesday. With global consumption continuing to rise any
production cuts would guarantee even higher prices for oil.
Retailers will have to hold out for the wave of tax refunds
to boost their sagging business and offset this undeclared
energy tax. We will have earnings from Best Buy and Circuit
City before the bell on Wednesday. This could give us a
clue for the present trend but retailers in general have
been upgrading guidance over the last couple weeks. WMT
and TGT both affirmed the high end of guidance just last

Oil Chart - Daily


The only other economic report today was the Consumer
Confidence for March. The consensus had been for a drop to
85.8 from 87.3 in February. The headline number came in 
higher at 88.3 but the really good news was an unusually 
large number of revisions to prior months. February was
revised up +1.2, January +1.2 and December +3.1. These
back month revisions are not really important on a current
basis but it is comforting to see such broad improvements.
With the revisions the March number ended up nearly unchanged
and better than expected. The present situation component
rose just under a point and the future expectations fell
just under a point. Clearly consumers have shaken off the
Madrid bombings and the drop in the market and are holding
their current levels of optimism. Considering the political
mud slinging about the state of the economy this is actually
a bullish sign. It suggests consumers are already glazing
over from the mud fight and may not let the comments depress
them further. Those planning to buy a home rose slightly due
to the lower interest rates but those planning to buy an
auto dropped substantially from 7.2 to 5.1. This is the
lowest level since 1995. 

The positive Consumer Confidence report provided the only
real excitement for the morning and helped pull the markets
back from an opening slump. The bounce was minimal and brief
but it did help erase the negative bias from the Chain Store
Sales. Unfortunately the markets were unable to retain any
momentum and slipped back in their rut to wait for the rest
of this weeks reports. After a triple digit gain on Monday
and an overall bullish tone for the prior three days just 
consolidating at the highs and in positive territory was a
very good sign.

The Dow stagnated just under resistance at 10350 and Nasdaq
seemed to fixate on 1990 as the price magnet for the day. 
The Dow was never in danger but the Nasdaq was crippled
from the opening bell due to weakness in the semiconductor
index. The SOX was down -8.75 or -1.8% at midday on weakness
in INTC and AMAT and others. Semis lead techs and techs lead
rallies but the reverse is also true on sell offs. Without
the SOX to lead the Nasdaq was in trouble. The NDX was also
challenged with strong resistance at 1445 and that level
held until well after the 3:PM rebound had started. The
NDX has strong resistance at the 50dma at 1455 and again
at horizontal resistance at 1460. Moving higher is still
going to be a challenge but a break over those levels 
should generate some serious short covering. 

SOX Chart - Daily

NDX Chart - Daily


The strongest index for the day was the Russell 2000 with
the RUT rebounding to the 590 level and showing almost no
weakness all afternoon. This is very encouraging because
strength in the Russell normally means mutual funds 
entering the market. The Russell broke through resistance
at its 50dma at 582.50 and closed at the high of the day
only 11 points from the magic 600 level. This is a very
key indicator for any broad market rally and suggests the
buyers are back in control on the mutual fund level. ICI
made the formal announcement today that February fund
flows had fallen to only $26.2 billion from January's
$43B. We already knew there was a drop in flows and we
also know there were negative flows two weeks ago. That
suggests March is going to be well under February. This
is even more important when you look at the Russell gains
over the last four days. It bottomed out at 555 last
Wednesday and now it is closing in on 600. As of the close
today we have already rebounded +6.3% from last weeks lows.
For me this is a lot of conviction that this rally has legs
and the funds are behind it. This suggests the negative
cash flows from two weeks ago are history and funds are 
eagerly anticipating a big flow of retirement cash now
that the quarter is over. 

Russell Chart - Daily


Another index jumping out in the lead today was the 
Internet Index. The $IIX and the $DOT both broke out of
their January downtrends on leadership by YHOO and EBAY.
This helped offset some of the Nasdaq weakness from the
SOX. The move today capped four days of strong gains and
suggests many shorts got caught by surprise. 

$IIX Internet Index Chart - Daily


While the rally continuation today was encouraging there
were still signs that it was primarily window dressing 
and today was the final markup of prices. Now all they 
have to do is hold them at these levels into Wednesday's
close. They will probably try to push them a little higher
tomorrow to get the Dow back into positive territory for
the year. The Dow closed 2003 at 10453 and we are still 
about -72 points below that level. The Nasdaq closed 2003
at 2003 and we are VERY close to going positive for the 
year with today's close at 2000. The S&P-500, the index 
of choice for comparison of mutual fund performance closed
2003 at 1112 and the 1127 print today pushed that index 
back into a gain for the year. The Russell is still the 
winner now up +6% from the 2003 close at 556. 

Bonds started the day stronger on multiple fronts including
short covering in front of Japan's fiscal year end tomorrow.
Traders are afraid of any last minute window dressing in
the currency markets to try and clean up the massive amount
of dollars Japan has been spending to support the Yen. The
Yen is on the verge of hitting a three-year high against 
the dollar and suggests that the intervention suspension
talk may have more truth than Japan would admit. Also
helping bonds were some negative comments about the lack of
jobs on the wires. Bernanke upheld the party line in his
Fedspeak for the day. He said we are 2.5 years into the
recovery but job growth was still distressingly slow. He
also said he expects jobs to recover before year end. This
has been their expectation for quite come time and it has
yet to come to pass. Bonds ended the day selling off their
gains and the ten-year yield closing nearly flat for the 
day. Traders are facing a mountain of economic reports for
the rest of the week and there were adjustments of positions
on both sides. 

Ten-Year Yields - Daily


Bonds are set for a volatile session on Wednesday despite
any equity market manipulation by the big money to close
the first quarter in the green. The economic reports on
tap are the Mortgage Application Survey and no surprises
are expected there with interest rates still low. The 
first stumbling block for bonds will be the NY-NAPM. The
report has shown sharply accelerating business conditions
in New York for the last three months. Last months report
hit a new high but there were several components with the
early stages of a reversal. Traders will be looking for 
those to rebound again and hopefully not be worse. The
NY-NAPM number for Feb was 267.2 and there is no estimate
for March. 

Next up is the Chicago PMI and it also dropped in Feb from
a nine year high in January. Nobody complained about the
drop considering the record high in January but another 
continuation of that drop in March could have trader
worry resurfacing that the economic rebound has already 
peaked. Factory Orders are expected to climb +1.5% from
the -0.5% drop in February. Again, a rebound here will 
bring a sigh of relief where another dip or minimal gain
will bring back those recovery fears. 

These reports are small potatoes compared to the ISM on
Thursday and the Jobs report on Friday. The ISM is expected
to drop nearly a point for the second consecutive monthly
decrease and we could really use a positive surprise here.
This is a key indicator of overall economic activity and
two down months will not be greeted warmly. 

The report with the biggest focus for the week is the 
Employment Report for March, which is due out on Friday. 
We all remember the estimate games that have been making
the rounds for the last four months. The general consensus
estimates have been in the 150K range and they have yet
to come close. In recent months whisper numbers have 
risen to the ranks of the insane with up to 350K being
tossed about. Last month it was a little more reserved
with many of the big guessers a little too ashamed to 
show their faces back on the air after missing the mark
so badly for the prior three months. 

Their back! Yes, whether it is the spring weather, warm
sunshine or just an infection of March Madness the numbers
making the rounds are quickly reaching astronomical 
proportions again. The official "consensus" number is 
+100,000 but the official "whisper" number is +125K and
easing toward 150K. The bigger names are shaping up like
this. Lehman has targeted +95K, Goldman Sachs +160K, 
Wachovia +225K, TheStreet.com +250K and the winner at 
+350K was an analyst at Prudential. He said he would 
raise his official estimate to 350K but too many of his
clients were already laughing at him at +175K. Wise move. 

Continuing to raise your public estimates to multiples
of the official consensus after being publicly humiliated
for multiple consecutive months has got to hurt your
credibility. It is like betting on a coin flip and always
calling heads. It will eventually end up heads but you
could lose a lot of money waiting. In Vegas I have seen
fortunes lost on red/black bets on the roulette table. 
I once saw a string of 37 reds spins. Gamblers were 20
deep around the table all trying to bet their bankroll 
on black because it just "had" to hit. That is the way
I see the jobs numbers. Eventually they will be right
but it may not be this month. The proliferation of high
whisper numbers has the potential to depress the market
more than impress it. Once everyone begins to expect a
blowout anything else is a letdown. This is what I expect
for Friday. Even if we hit the official +100K number the
majority of traders will be disappointed. It could be
just like an inline earnings report for Intel. Yawn! 
Is that all?

A four-day rally with the Dow +370 points above last weeks
lows is begging for some consolidation. The abundance of
economic reports ahead should give traders plenty of
excuses for that consolidation. Whether the porridge is
too hot, too cold or just right the expectations are 
already priced into the market. Much of the impact of 
those expectations was aided by the end of quarter window
dressing. Those artificially inflated gains also came on
very low volume where the recent sell offs have been on
stronger than normal volume. On Tuesday the NYSE and
the Nasdaq barely broke 1.6B shares each. This is very
light, almost holiday volume and the third consecutive day
for volume across all exchanges to barely reach 3.5B shares.
This is not a good sign technically. We are also seeing 
an increase in put buying with the index put/call ratio
rising to 1.45 today. This is actually good since it 
shows a level of fear in the marketplace that is not 
being reflected in the VIX which has fallen to 16.29.

This is definitely shaping up to be an exciting week. 
That would be a definite improvement over the Tuesday
sleep walk. If we do manage to go higher from here the
Dow has only minor resistance at 10400 which develops
into major resistance in the 10450-10475 range. This is
exactly where the Dow needs to be to close the quarter
in the green. The Nasdaq is at critical resistance at
2000. It must move higher to break the current downtrend
since January and there is plenty of resistance to battle.
Helping the Nasdaq will be a little breathing room on the
SOX before it hits downtrend resistance just under 500.
An even bigger help to the Nasdaq would be a Russell move
over 590 resistance giving it a clear run to 600. This
more than anything could provide the breakout bias to 
all the indexes. If the funds have already finished 
their end of quarter small cap shopping then extending
the Russell rally could be a challenge. Let's hope they
saved some pocket change to dress the tape at Wednesday's

With all the economic potholes ahead I would be very leery
of opening any new long positions. We need to see some
consolidation of the current gains and digest the economic
news before moving higher. Next week is plenty of time to
join the party if the rally has legs. Of course economic
blowouts across the board could push us higher but after
four days of our coin turning up heads do your really want
to bet heads again? 
Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. 

Jim Brown


The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.


Yum! Brands Inc. - YUM - close: 38.65 change: +0.66

WHAT TO WATCH: This isn't the first time in recent weeks that 
we've looked at YUM, as it first caught our attention with its 
breakout to new all-time highs back in February.  After a healthy 
consolidation, it looks like the stock is on the move again and 
today's thrust to a new closing high looks encouraging.  
Pullbacks near $37.50 still look good for entry ahead of the 
breakout and then a move through $39.05 can be used for momentum 


Cisco Systems Inc. - CSCO - close: 23.93 change: +0.08

WHAT TO WATCH: Since we looked at it yesterday, CSCO has edged a 
bit closer to its breakout level and it looks poised to make that 
move quite soon.  Use a trigger over the 50-dma and target a 
rally back over the $26 level.  Watch for potential resistance 
near the bottom of the February gap at $25.


Apple Computer, Inc. - AAPL - close: 27.92 change: +0.01

WHAT TO WATCH: For having such a small part of the PC market, 
AAPL is certainly performing well as a stock.  After bouncing 
from the 200-dma in December, the stock has been building a very 
nice pattern of higher highs and higher lows and is on the cusp 
of a new breakout.  Use a trigger over $28.20 and target next 
resistance near $31.


Flextronics International Ltd - FLEX - close: 17.15 change: +0.61

WHAT TO WATCH: Along with the rest of the market, FLEX has been 
busy trying to form a bottom over the past couple weeks and with 
price moving right up to the edge of confirming its recent double 
top pattern, the stock looks primed for a breakout play.  Use a 
trigger over $17.30 and target a rally up to the $18.75 area.


On the RADAR Screen

ELBO $29.10 - After nearly 3 months of sideways churn, ELBO made 
an impressive upward thrust over the past two days and looks 
headed for a retest of the $32-33 resistance level.  Now that the 
October gap has been filled, any dip near $28 can be used for 
bargain entries ahead of a continuation of the fledgling rally.

NVDA $26.16 - It would be hard to tell that the Chip stocks have 
been weak lately if you were to just look at a chart of NVDA.  
The stock launched higher a week ago and has been rallying strong 
ever since, notching a new 9 month high today.  The stock is 
pretty extended here an with resistance looming at $27.50, it may 
be prudent to wait for a pullback near support before playing.  
Then look for a continued rally up to the $30 area.

LU $4.13 - With the strength in Networking stocks, LU finally 
cracked the upside of its descending channel on Tuesday and if it 
can break the 50-dma, we can look for a continued rally towards 
$4.50 and then $4.75.  Wait for the move through the 50-dma 
before playing.

Market Sentiment

Window Dressing
- J. Brown

It's been a pretty impressive week thus far.  The bulls have 
managed to orchestrate an encore performance on top of 
yesterday's big gains.  It is encouraging to see the NASDAQ close 
above 2000, the Wilshire 5000 index close above the 11,000 mark 
and the GHA hardware index, the CYC cyclical index and the OIX 
oil index all close above their 50-dma's.  However, my concern 
now is that not only are we short-term overbought but this could 
be nothing more than end-of-the-quarter window dressing by mutual 

However, this time we may not see any window un-dressing until 
after the Jobs report on Friday.  Right now Wall Street is once 
again cautiously optimistic for the non-farms payroll report 
despite being let down again and again.  Hope springs eternal but 
it will have to endure a number of economic reports this week 
before Friday's jobs report.  Tomorrow is the Factory Orders and 
Chicago PMI while Thursday brings the weekly initial jobless 
claims, the auto and truck sales numbers for March (which are 
expected to be positive), the construction spending numbers and 
the ISM index.  


Market Averages


52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  7929
Current     : 10381

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 10210
 50-dma: 10472
200-dma:  9832

S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  843
Current     : 1127

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 1110
 50-dma: 1134
200-dma: 1058

Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1014
Current     : 1445

Moving Averages:

 10-dma: 1410
 50-dma: 1467
200-dma: 1384


As investors buy the "correction" the volatility indices are 
shooting back toward their multi-year lows.  No surprises here.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.28 -0.22
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.99 +0.03
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 23.18 +0.02


          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.61        685,330       418,968
Equity Only    0.46        581,353       267,971
OEX            1.17         15,746        18,486
QQQ            0.30         98,732        29,389


Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          70.9    + 0     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    39.0    + 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   80.0    + 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       73.4    + 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       77.0    + 0     Bull Correction

Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


 5-dma: 0.74
10-dma: 1.20
21-dma: 1.42
55-dma: 1.17

Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning


Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1903      1831
Decliners     915      1223

New Highs     159       110
New Lows       10         7

Up Volume   1155M      893M
Down Vol.    444M      573M

Total Vol.  1614M     1582M
M = millions


Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/23/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Commercial traders pared back their positions in both long and
short plays but they remain next short, which is a change in
sentiment over last week.  Small traders significantly altered
their short positions but remain net long.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
03/02/04      411,932   418,936    (7,004)   (0.1%)
03/09/04      418,394   433,237   (14,843)   (1.7%)
03/16/04      454,635   449,505     5,130     0.6%
03/23/04      401,456   418,732   (17,273)   (2.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/02/04      148,383    84,135    64,248    27.6%
03/09/04      155,947    88,317    67,630    27.7%
03/16/04      159,054   115,023    44,031    25.3%
03/23/04      130,648    89,943    40,705    18.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02

E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders chopped off a large chunk of open positions
from both their longs and shorts and what was left behind is
their most bullish reading in weeks.  Small traders are still
bullish too.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
03/02/04      344,805   395,112    (50,307)  ( 6.8%)
03/09/04      431,623   485,268    (53,645)  ( 5.9%)
03/16/04      472,809   574,241   (101,432)  ( 9.7%)
03/23/04      268,647   294,930    (26,283)  ( 4.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/02/04     119,382     67,453    51,929    27.8%
03/09/04     135,233     76,558    58,675    27.7%
03/16/04     192,136     96,691    95,445    33.0%
03/23/04     131,879     59,210    72,669    38.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


We see the same reduction in outstanding positions in the NDX
futures but commercial traders have become more bullish on
the NASDAQ while small traders have become bearish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
03/02/04       49,959     41,059     8,900    9.8%
03/09/04       57,368     46,082    11,286   10.9%
03/16/04       68,285     54,899    13,386   10.9%
03/23/04       52,014     34,017    17,997   20.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  13,386   - 03/16/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/02/04       11,605     7,128     4,477    23.9%
03/09/04       15,533     8,070     7,463    31.6%
03/16/04       27,859    18,333     9,526    20.6%
03/23/04        9,884    12,887    (3,003)  (13.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02


Ouch! Commercial traders have switched from bullish to almost
bearish with a large drop in long positions and a big jump
in shorts.  Meanwhile small traders have moved from strongly
bearish to bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/02/04       27,594    14,166   13,428      32.2%
03/09/04       26,867    12,845   14,022      35.3%
03/16/04       32,317    17,514   14,803      29.7%
03/23/04       23,048    22,119      929       2.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/02/04        6,898    15,874   (8,976)   (39.4%)
03/09/04        7,053    19,159  (12,106)   (46.2%)
03/16/04       10,002    20,970  (10,968)   (35.4%)
03/23/04        8,344     6,734    1,610     10.7%

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:


For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.


Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.

PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 03-30-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment

Stop Adjustments: SPF
Stock Splits:     NSSC, WRI

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

Stop Loss Adjustments

SPF - active trader long
 raise stop loss from $54.50 to $58.95.  Prepare to exit
 at our official exit price of $59.50.  
-Editor's note: If you're looking for a new playin the 
 homebuilding sector check out DHI.

Stock Splits


NSSC declares a 2-for-1 stock split

This afternoon NAPCO Security Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:NSSC) 
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock 
split of its common shares in the form of a 100% stock dividend.

The dividend is payable on April 27th, 2004 to shareholders on 
record as of April 13, 2004.  Post-split NSSC will have 6.9 
million shares outstanding.  

About the company:
NAPCO Security Systems, Inc. is one of the world's leading 
manufacturers of technologically advanced electronic security 
equipment including burglary and fire alarm systems, access 
control products and electronic locking devices. The Company's 
products, including those of Alarm Lock and Continental 
Instruments, feature some of the most popular and best-selling 
control panels, sensors, locking devices and access control 
systems. They are used in residential, commercial, institutional 
and industrial applications. NAPCO security products have earned a 
reputation for technical excellence, reliability and innovation, 
poising the Company for revenue growth in the rapidly expanding 
electronic security market; a market whose current size exceeds 
$25 billion. (source: company press release)


WRI 3-for-2 split effective today

Late this morning Weingarten Realty Investors (NYSE:WRI) announced 
that its 3-for-2 stock split declared by its Board of Directors on 
February 20th, 2004 will be effective today (March 30th, 2004) 
after the close of business.   

Unfortunately WRI never issued any press release about their split 
announcement back in February.  

About the company:
Weingarten Realty Investors is a Houston, Texas based real estate 
investment trust with 334 income-producing and new development 
properties in 20 states that spans the southern half of the United 
States from coast to coast. Included in the portfolio are 273 
neighborhood and community shopping centers and 61 industrial 
properties aggregating 44.6 million square feet. (source: company 
press release)

  Trading Ideas

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

SC      Shell Transport & Trading  41.02     +0.60
RD      Royal Dutch Petrol         47.70     +0.56
CVX     ChevronTexaco Corp         87.08     +1.70
BAC     Bank of America            81.77     +0.73
C       Citigroup                  51.94     +0.62
UN      Unilever N.V.              68.50     +0.67

Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)

WRNC    Warnaco Group Inc          20.00     +1.04
PXLW    Pixelworks Inc             16.96     +1.41
ALDN    Aladdin Knowledge System   19.79     +4.20
VASC    Vascular Solutions Inc      9.78     +3.17
NSSC    Napco Security Systems     17.11     +2.49
CBTE    Commonwealth Biotech       10.41     +3.60

Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
PEP     Pepsico Inc                53.28     +1.07
BP      BP Plc                     51.12     +1.67
COF     Capital One Financial      75.78     +1.09
MON     Monsanto                   36.14     +1.12
SSP     E.W.Scripps Co            100.27     +1.37
ADSK    Autodesk Inc               31.47     +1.54
SPF     Standard Pacific           59.26     +3.00

Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)

WFMI    Whole Foods Market Inc     72.98     -1.03
WPI     Watson Pharmaceuticals     42.42     -1.08
MATR    Matria Healthcare Inc      26.21     -1.85

Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)

KZL     Kerzner Intl Ltd           43.79     -2.39

To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:


For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.


Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives