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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 04/04/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 04-04-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Blowout!
Market Sentiment:  On Your Mark
Watch List:        AAPL, BRKS, CHRT, APPB

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 04-02        WE 03-26        WE 03-19        WE 03-12 
DOW    10470.59 +257.62 10212.9 + 26.37 10186.6 - 53.48 -355.47 
Nasdaq  2057.17 + 97.15 1960.02 + 19.55 1940.47 - 44.26 - 62.90 
S&P-100  558.10 + 14.58  543.52 -  0.16  543.68 -  6.24 - 18.53 
S&P-500 1141.81 + 33.75 1108.06 -  1.68 1109.74 - 10.83 - 36.29 
W5000  11202.42 +362.24 10840.2 - 12.80 10852.9 -115.20 -346.24 
SOX      513.86 + 34.61  479.25 + 15.90  463.35 - 21.75 - 19.15 
RUT      603.45 + 30.53  572.92 +  2.18  570.74 - 12.10 - 16.70 
TRAN    2966.66 +130.76 2835.90 + 49.07 2786.83 - 76.26 - 29.98 
VIX       15.64 -  1.69   17.33 -  1.82   19.15 +  0.85 +  3.82 
VXO       15.56 -  1.65   17.21 -  1.95   19.16 +  0.44 +  3.92 
VXN       21.35 -  1.69   23.04 -  2.95   25.99 +  0.69 +  3.22 
TRIN       0.52            0.89            1.93            0.44  
Put/Call   0.68            0.77            1.03            1.05   
WE = week ending
================================================================= 

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Blowout!
by Jim Brown

The administration finally found all those lost jobs and 
they eagerly took to the airwaves to pound their economic
drum. The markets exploded at the open with new highs for
the week across the board. After two attempts to sell off
the markets returned to the highs at the close. This was 
a very bullish end to a bullish week.  

The big news for the day was of course the blowout Jobs
report. The economy added +308,000 jobs in March according
to the Dept of Labor. They also conveniently "found" some 
additional jobs for Jan and Feb. The Feb number was revised
up from 21,000 to 46,000 and the January number jumped from
97,000 to 159,000. The total new jobs for this release 
totaled an amazing +395,000 jobs. This was nearly four 
times the consensus estimates if you include the revisions. 

Job Table - last ten months

 

Gains were broad based across all industries with service
companies adding +230,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose
to 5.7% because there was a net increase to the unemployed
of +182,000 despite the strong job creation. This could be
from midterm graduates and returning national guard troops.  
There were some strange side effects. The hours worked 
index fell slightly and the Household Employment survey
showed a drop in employment for March. This survey has been
showing strong gains and the government has been pointing
to it as an example of entrepreneur growth. Overall the
jobs report was very strong and with the revisions proves
the wild whisper numbers were not as wild as analyst's
had thought. 

Now the bad news. The massive jump in jobs wiped out bonds
with yields returning to early February levels. The cheap
interest rates available to spur home buying and refinancing
this spring are now history and the downhill trend was
completely erased. The chances for the Fed to reenter the
mix have increased dramatically. The Fed Funds Futures are
showing the chance of a hike is possible after the May
4th meeting. It could come as early as the two-day meeting
on June-29th. The Fed will likely wait for the May Jobs
number to see if we get a confirmation. That jobs report
is due out on May-7th, three days after the FOMC meeting. 
If that number is another blowout the odds are good we
could see an inter meeting rate hike. This has been a 
historical pattern when jobs suddenly explode. 

Economists were quick to point out that the Jobs blowout
on Friday was exactly ten years to the day from the jobs
blowout in April 1994 when +468,000 jobs ended a long
drought. The economy was in the midst of another jobless
recovery after the first gulf war and each month analysts
were predicting strong gains but each month was a constant
disappointment. The April blowout broke the trend and
started a long string of months with strong job growth 
that led into the late 90s economic boom. Investors are
hoping this repeat of the 1994 pattern will continue. This
was the largest single month job gain since April-2000. 

One day too late to be another April fools prank MSFT and
SUNW kissed and made up. They buried their hatchets and
not in each others back. Steve Ballmer and Scott McNealy
shook hands and traded jokes at a news conference to
announce an end to lawsuits between the two companies
and a new ten-year agreement to cooperate. Scott was
especially happy from a nearly $2 billion windfall that
Microsoft agreed to pay to end the fighting and as an
advance on future deals. 

With SUNW slowly slipping off the technology screen with
the advent of Linux and the growing IBM server threat the
deal was a life preserver for SUNW. Sun may not be in any
financial risk with $7 billion in cash but agreeing to 
join Microsoft to take on the world was a good move. This
puts them on the winning team with the 800lb bully ready
to kick dirt on any competitors. The two are stronger 
together than they are as adversaries and the market
celebrated with a +21% jump in SUNW stock. This is even
more amazing considering SUNW warned Friday morning that
they were not going to hit estimates for the 1Q and would
lose -23 to -25 cents when analysts were only expecting
them to loss -3 cents. They said they were cutting -3300
employees in a restructuring effort to return to profits.
The agreement should improve communications across networks
with SUNW servers and Windows PCs. It also removes even
more antitrust concerns from the cloud over Microsoft and
puts them several steps closer to emerging from the 
constant threat of litigation. 

The blowout on Friday was led by techs and the jump in
Microsoft and Sun Micro did not hurt. However the gains
were very broad based with advancers having better than
a 2:1 advantage over decliners. Nasdaq volume was much 
stronger with 2.1B shares and 6:1 advancing over 
declining. This was a very strong tech move and the 
Nasdaq soared to close at the high of the day at 2054.

The Dow vaulted back to 10470 and a +97 point gain. This
capped a +463 point gain from last weeks lows. Traders
were somewhat disappointed with the less than +1% gain
on the Dow for the day compared to the +2.1% gain on the
Nasdaq and +3.74% gain on the SOX. The NYSE did trade 
over 2B shares but the A/D numbers were almost equal and
the A/D volume was only 2:1. The challenge on the NYSE 
was the large number of financial and stocks related 
to home building that took serious hits on the jump in 
interest rates. A +97 point gain is nothing to sneeze 
at but the Dow definitely has an uphill battle from here. 

From the March high at 10753 to the March lows at 10007
the Dow dropped -746 points. Friday's close was exactly
to the 61.8% retracement of those gains. For the prior
two days we were stuck at the 50% retracement level at
10380 and Friday's news blew that resistance away only
to come to a dead stop at the next higher level. 

For next week we have a light economic schedule and the
calendar timing and Good Friday holiday will produce 
very few earnings. The really heavy news on stocks will
not begin until the following week. This sets up next
week as a positioning week. With bonds likely to be
dead money for the foreseeable future there should be
some serious asset allocation back into stocks. What
better week to do it than the first week of a quarter
with retirement funds flowing into equities and with
a real signs the economy is growing. Earnings are still
expected to be strong and the positive jobs news will
give Bush a boost in the polls. All the stars are
aligning for an April rally. What is wrong with this
picture?  

Emotionally nothing but technically it will not be a
walk in the park. For the Dow I mentioned the 61% 
retracement level at 10468 and there is also the 50dma
at 10461. There is also strong horizontal resistance at
10525 and the Dow is very extended at +463 off the lows
with no real profit taking. 

Dow Chart - Daily

 


The Nasdaq has exploded off the bottom with a +8.5% gain of
+160 points and no material profit taking. The close at 2057
is just below resistance at 2060 with additional resistance
at 2085. This sets up a very rough uphill road over the next
30 points. 

Nasdaq Chart - Daily

 

 
On the surface it would appear the markets could struggle
next week. However there could be a strong bid under the
markets from asset allocation and from an affirmation of
the economic trend. One of the strongest indexes on Friday
was the SOX. The SOX bounce came from the strong year over
year gains in the Semiconductor Billings report also on
Friday. February billings only rose +0.2% over January but
this is normally a declining month. Chips usually decline
in Dec/Jan and remain weak due to seasonal patterns making
the even the minor gains a welcome change. When viewed on
a year over year basis February billings were up +31% and
the strongest gain since late 2000. Higher global spending
on IT equipment is credited with the surge in billings.
There are strong tax incentives that expire this year that
allows companies to depreciate an additional 50% of equip
and software if purchased by year end. The latest CIO
magazine poll showed CIOs plan to increase spending by 
more than +7% this year and signs of an expanding economy
could push it higher.  

The SOX rallied strongly on the news and this could help
keep a bid under techs next week. Also helping keep a bid
under the market is the mutual fund quarter end retirement
flows and the asset allocation shift out of bonds. This 
could setup a really strong move. This may sound entirely
contrary to the prior resistance paragraphs. However if
you think back you will probably remember that some of the
strongest gains tend to come when the most factors predict
otherwise. Shorts begin loading up on the bearish technical
factors and the sudden buying catches them off guard. While
everyone is predicting a profit taking pullback the rally
just keeps getting stronger. We have seen this numerous
times in the past. I remember several vividly as I was
one of those ticking off the reasons why the markets 
"should" be resting. 

I watched the markets rise into the close on Friday from
a position of amazement. We were already severely extended
and at resistance with weekend event risk ahead. News
reports of terror warnings for the US failed to push anyone
to the sidelines. I am sure it was partially due to shorts
finally taking their lumps but there were also strong 
internals suggesting buyers trying to get in ahead of 
next week. 

Tuesday is Passover and Good Friday is a market holiday.
Volume will be light on Tuesday and Thursday is loaded 
up with economic reports.  This is typically a bullish 
week but Monday will be the key. We have a strong running
start going into Monday and a strong open that does not
crumble could set the trend for the entire week.   

I am definitely not going out on a limb and suggesting 
that next week is going to see a continuation of the rally
but I am not going to bet against it either. For whatever
reason we had a normal correction in March and one that
was way overdue. This cleared the way for a new leg up
if conditions warranted it. This week we had a strong ISM
and strong jobs and bullishness is breaking out all over.
Next week could be the staging platform for any earnings
run and there are no bears in sight. This alone is a prime
reason to keep your eyes open for a sudden reversal but
don't fight any further gains. Go with the flow not 
against it. Easy to say, hard to do. 

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

On Your Mark
- J. Brown

Get set. Go!  Wow! What a week.  The markets turned in their best 
percentage weekly performance since October of last year.  The 
vast majority of the sector indices we follow have broken out 
above technical resistance at their 50-dma's.  The INX Internet 
index has broken out to new multi-year highs while the SOX 
semiconductor index is above major resistance and should continue 
to lead the NASDAQ higher.  Speaking of the NASDAQ it is now 
firmly above resistance at the top of its descending channel and 
the 2000 level.  More importantly the jobs number, which sparked 
the rally, is the lagging indicator that many on Wall Street and 
Main Street have been waiting for.  Not only will stocks benefit 
from an asset allocation out of bonds but investors who have been 
waiting on the sidelines for the jobs number to show up will be 
trying to enter the markets as well.

You wouldn't know it but there was a bomb found on a Spanish 
railroad on Friday but the markets shook it off with the strong 
labor data. The 300K-job increase was the best improvement in 
four years.  Right now the only risk to stocks would appear to be 
a terrorist event.  Many "experts" are saying the up coming 
earnings season should be positive enough to launch the next leg 
of the bull market at least for the next couple of months.   How 
we fare in mid-summer is another matter.

The major indices are short-term overbought but I believe that 
after a bit of profit taking they'll be up and running into the 
mid-April earnings season.  Don't tell anyone but secretly it 
wouldn't surprise me to see the NASDAQ fill the gap from Friday 
morning or at least pull back to the 2020 level.  You can bet 
there will be investors waiting to buy the dip.  Be patient, 
watch those stop losses and time your entries!


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8145
Current     : 10470

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10252
 50-dma: 10461
200-dma:  9848



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  862
Current     : 1141

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1114
 50-dma: 1133
200-dma: 1060



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1018
Current     : 1490

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1424
 50-dma: 1462
200-dma: 1388


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Now that the markets are back in rally mode the volatility
indices are quickly fading back toward their multi-year lows.  

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.64 -1.01
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.59 -1.56
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.35 -2.06

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.68      1,154,470       788,367
Equity Only    0.53        994,736       531,671
OEX            1.55         37,515        57,994
QQQ            1.21        177,722       215,207


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          73.1    + 1     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    50.0    + 6     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   83.3    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       76.6    + 2     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       79.0    + 1     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.74
10-dma: 1.08
21-dma: 1.38
55-dma: 1.15


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1612      2169
Decliners    1208       949

New Highs     201       184
New Lows       20         6

Up Volume   1378M     1821M
Down Vol.    568M      294M

Total Vol.  1961M     2167M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/30/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

Not much change in the commercial traders' positions this
past week.  Small traders turned a little less bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
03/09/04      418,394   433,237   (14,843)   (1.7%)
03/16/04      454,635   449,505     5,130     0.6%
03/23/04      401,456   418,732   (17,273)   (2.1%)
03/30/04      407,987   420,624   (12,673)   (1.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04      155,947    88,317    67,630    27.7%
03/16/04      159,054   115,023    44,031    25.3%
03/23/04      130,648    89,943    40,705    18.5%
03/30/04      130,112    81,937    48,175    22.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Almost the same holds true here.  Commercial traders edged up 
their short positions but not by much.  Small traders turned a 
little less bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
03/09/04      431,623   485,268    (53,645)  ( 5.9%)
03/16/04      472,809   574,241   (101,432)  ( 9.7%)
03/23/04      268,647   294,930    (26,283)  ( 4.7%)
03/30/04      265,492   305,797    (40,305)  ( 7.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04     135,233     76,558    58,675    27.7%
03/16/04     192,136     96,691    95,445    33.0%
03/23/04     131,879     59,210    72,669    38.0%
03/30/04     123,494     59,550    63,944    35.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Whoa!  Commercials turned bearish on the NASDAQ just before
it broke out over resistance.  Unless that's a typo by the COT
it will be interesting to see how that number changes next 
week.  Small traders turned more bearish.  It's been a painful
week for everyone here.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
03/09/04       57,368     46,082    11,286   10.9%
03/16/04       68,285     54,899    13,386   10.9%
03/23/04       52,014     34,017    17,997   20.9%
03/30/04       52,749     67,967   (15,218) (12.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  13,386   - 03/16/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04       15,533     8,070     7,463    31.6%
03/16/04       27,859    18,333     9,526    20.6%
03/23/04        9,884    12,887    (3,003)  (13.2%)
03/30/04        8,928    16,551    (7,623)  (30.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Very little change in commercial traders' positions while
small traders pared back their longs.  Remember, these numbers
are prior to the jobs report on Friday.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04       26,867    12,845   14,022      35.3%
03/16/04       32,317    17,514   14,803      29.7%
03/23/04       23,048    22,119      929       2.1%
03/30/04       23,642    22,180    1,462       3.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/09/04        7,053    19,159  (12,106)   (46.2%)
03/16/04       10,002    20,970  (10,968)   (35.4%)
03/23/04        8,344     6,734    1,610     10.7%
03/30/04        7,020     6,711      309      2.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Apple Computer Inc - AAPL - close: 27.50 change: +0.39

WHAT TO WATCH: AAPL is currently trading near three-year highs 
and it looks ready to breakout over resistance at $28.00.  Odds 
of this occurring might be pretty strong as investors gear up for 
AAPL's April 14th earnings announcement.  The strength of the 
iTunes unit, inspite of increased competition from the likes of 
Wal-Mart, and the strong sales of its Ipod and Ipod mini could 
lure momentum players into the stock.  We're also impressed that 
AAPL held up so well on Friday on news that rival Gateway was 
shutting all of its retail stores.  AAPL is in the midst of its 
own experiment with retail stores and the GTW news is probably an 
ill omen such a business model. 




---

Brooks Automation - BRKS - close: 22.66 change: +1.70 

WHAT TO WATCH: The 8.11% gain on Friday was very impressive.  
Boosted by a strong day for semiconductors, BRKS broke out over 
resistance at its 50, 100 and 200-dma's.  Currently the top of 
the trading range for BRKS is the $27.50 level.  While we'd 
prefer to buy a dip the strength of the close on Friday suggests 
a strong opening for Monday.  Look for $25.00 to be minor 
resistance. 




---

Chartered Semi. - CHRT - close: 10.07 change: +0.42

WHAT TO WATCH: Yet another chip stocks on the move, share of CHRT 
look tempting with the 4.35% breakout above round-number 
resistance at $10.00 and its simple 50-dma.  It's current P&F buy 
signal points to a $26 price target but more realistically we 
think CHRT might be able to trade to the $11.00-11.25 region.  




---

AppleBee's Intl Inc. - APPB - close: 41.74 change: +0.66

WHAT TO WATCH: There has been a number of restaurant companies 
coming out with good news for same-store sales recently and signs 
that the U.S. economy is improving should be good news for the 
trend to continue.  We think APPB might be a play with a trigger 
over resistance at $42.00.  Should this occur look for a run 
toward the $46 region.  More aggressive traders willing to buy 
the dip can look for a bounce from $40.00.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

PCLE $9.40 +0.27 - The $9.60 level is major overhead resistance 
for this stock and a breakout could produce some short-covering.  
We would target a move to $11.00.

UIS $14.66 +0.35 - This computer services stock has broken out 
above major resistance with the four-month trendline of lower 
highs.  It has also cleared all its moving averages save the 100-
dma. 

IM $18.26 +0.30 - IM is another hardware stock enjoying the 
strength in tech.  Consider a trigger over $18.31 and target a 
move toward $19.75.

TIWI $12.30 +0.74 - This is a telecom stock that has rallied 
strongly off its recent lows and broken the trend of lower highs.  
Friday's rally was a breakout over resistance at $12.00 and its 
50-dma.  

DITC $18.31 +0.83 - DITC is another telecom following the same 
pattern seen in TIWI.  Yet DITC has yet to breakout over its 50 & 
100-dma's, which are immediately overhead.


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 04-04-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bullish Plays:     IMOS
  Bullish Play Updates:  LEXR
  Closed Bearish Plays:  RFMD

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     PAAS
  Bullish Play Updates:  APA, FNF, IGT, PBG
  Bearish Play Updates:  PRX


High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish Plays:     FRNT
  Bullish Play Updates:  SIRI


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

ChipMOS Tech - IMOS - close: 11.35 change: +0.79 stop: 10.45

Company Description:
ChipMOS Bermuda is a leading provider of semiconductor testing 
and assembly services to customers in Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. 
With advanced facilities in Hsinchu and Tainan Science-Based 
Industrial Parks in Taiwan and Shanghai, ChipMOS Bermuda and its 
subsidiaries provide testing and assembly services to a broad 
range of customers, including leading fabless semiconductor 
companies, integrated device manufacturers and independent 
semiconductor foundries. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The semiconductor index is in breakout mode and Friday's 3.74% 
gain sent the SOX through resistance at the 500 level and its 40 
& 50-dma's.  While we might see some profit taking next week the 
trend certainly appears to have changed for the better.  We think 
a great way to play the rebound in the semis is IMOS.  Their 
testing equipment is a way for investors to trade the growth in 
both LCD displays and flash memory.   Shares of IMOS have also 
broken through resistance at $11.00 and paused just 4 cents short 
of its 50-dma.  

We would suggest bullish positions at current levels or on any 
dip back to the $10.75-11.00 range.  Its P&F chart has overhead 
resistance at $13.00 so we'll make that our immediate target.  
We'll start the play with a stop loss at $10.45.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on April 04 at $11.35
Gain since picked:    + 0.00
Earnings Date       02/10/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    857 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Lexar Media - LEXR - close: 17.27 change: +0.42 stop: 16.00*new*

It's been a great week for shares of LEXR.  The stock broke out 
above resistance at $16.00 and its 200-dma on Monday to hit our 
TRIGGER at $16.01 and open the play.  Since then it's been up 
every day this week.  Actually LEXR is up nine days in a row, 
albeit the gains on some of those sessions were pretty small.  
Yet we're still concerned that LEXR is probably short-term 
overbought.  We'd suggest that traders look for a dip to initiate 
new positions.  A drop to the $16.65 region might be a good place 
to look for potential entries.  On the earnings front J.P.Morgan 
issued some positive comments earlier in the week and said 
channel checks show LEXR's quarter to be doing very well.  LEXR 
also issued their own press release and confirmed that they would 
announce earnings on April 15th after the close.  We do not plan 
to hold over the announcement so that gives us less than two 
weeks to hit our target at $18.50.  We're going to raise our stop 
to $16.00.  Considering the 7.9% gain right now readers might 
want to use a tighter stop.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on March 29 at $16.01
Gain since picked:    + 1.27
Earnings Date       04/15/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    3.5 million 




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

RF Micro Devices - RFMD - close: 8.73 change: +0.25 stop: 8.71

There's been way too much bullishness in the semiconductor 
industry this past week.  Try as RFMD might the SOX's 3.74% 
explosion on Friday was enough to send RFMD above short-term 
resistance and stop us out.  The stock is still under a lot of 
resistance and we expect it to under perform its peers but now is 
probably not the best time to try shorting chip stocks.  

Picked on March 21 at $ 8.24
Gain since picked:    + 0.49
Earnings Date       04/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   11.4 million 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Pan American Silver - PAAS - cls: 19.61 chng: +0.85 stop: 17.50

Why we like it:
While gold is the more popular precious metal, it is clear that 
silver is once again coming into its own.  While gold has been 
stalled over the past week near its January highs, the July 
Silver Futures Contract has been tearing up the charts, hitting 
$8.50 on Friday a new decade high.  Silver is playing catchup to 
its yellow cousin and the silver mining stocks are following 
suit.  Shares of PAAS had a very impressive breakout run from 
November through early February before settling into a much-
needed consolidation pattern between roughly $16.25 and $18.50.  
That consolidation flag broke with conviction over the past two 
days, with volume ramping up to more than double the ADV, as 
price shattered the top of the consolidation range, driving the 
stock to new all-time highs just below $20.  The PnF chart says 
there's more gas in the tank too, with the current upside target 
pegged at $26.  Friday's breakout looks very bullish on both the 
PnF chart and the standard candle chart and the opportunity is 
too good to pass up.

We've looked at the stock on the Watch List recently, and 
hopefully some of our readers managed to grab an entry point as 
the stock powered through the $18.75 level over the past couple 
days.  If not, momentum traders could still gain a favorable 
entry if the stock continues to power higher through the $19.75 
level.  Clearly the more conservative entry will be to look for a 
pullback to confirm support in the $18.00-18.50 area before 
continuing higher.  PAAS had rallied by roughly $4 before 
entering the recent consolidation flag and with the breakout now 
underway, a reasonable upside target is $4 added to the top of 
the flag pattern.  So we'll work with an upside target of $22-23.  
Initial stops are a bit tricky given the strength of the move 
over the past couple days, so we'll start with our stop at 
$17.50, just under both the 20-dma ($17.57) and 30-dma ($17.51).  
If taking the momentum entry, be sure to confirm continued 
strength in the price of the underlying metal, watching the July 
futures contract (SI04N).

Annotated Chart of PAAS:

 

Picked on April 1st at      $19.61
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =    1.30 mln



============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Apache Corp. - APA - close: 41.96 change: -0.49 stop: 40.00

Apparently we set our entry trigger just a bit too close on our 
APA play, as the stock edged just above the $43.50 level on 
Thursday before being knocked back by the pressure in the Energy 
sector.  Once again, the stock rolled over at resistance and it 
looks like we're going to get an opportunity to enter at a more 
favorable level, as the stock comes down to once again test its 
rising trendline at $41 and possibly the 50-dma ($40.74).  The 
short term dip in energy prices is unlikely to last and once 
buyers return to the energy sector, APA should shine as one of 
the very clear leaders.  As long as the trend of higher lows 
remains intact, this dip should be buyable, just like all the 
rest since the early February lows.  Clearly we're still looking 
for a bonified breakout over resistance and traders preferring to 
enter on strength will want to trigger entries on a move over 
$43.75 or even $44.  Maintain stops at $40 and look for an upside 
target in the $48 area.

Picked on March 17th at     $43.17
Change since picked          -1.21
Earnings Date              4/22/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.40 mln




---

Fidelity Nat. Fin. - FNF - close: 39.86 change: -1.20 stop: 38.00

As encouraging as Thursday's strong breakout in shares of FNF 
was, Friday's selloff is a real source of concern.  Interest rate 
sensitive stocks got hammered on the much better than expected 
jobs data and FNF was among them.  Friday's drop completely 
erased Thursday's gains and did so on similarly heavy volume.  To 
its credit though, FNF managed to stabilize just below $40 and 
there's the potential that this is the test of the old resistance 
as new support that will provide for a solid continuation entry.  
Wait for a rebound to get underway before buying this dip though.  
Key support remains at the 50-dma ($38.46) and that support must 
hold if the stock's bullish prospects have any chance at all.  
For now, we'll maintain our stop at $38 and look for a rebound 
from support early next week to confirm the bullish case is still 
intact.

Picked on March 31st at     $39.60
Change since picked          +0.26
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =       961 K




---

Intl Game Tech - IGT - cls: 45.78 chng: +0.67 stop: 43.90*new*

In contrast to the prior week, IGT provided little over which we 
could get excited last week, as the stock continued to 
consolidate its vertical move to the $45-46 area.  That's fine 
with us though, as the stock held up very well, consolidating in 
a tight pattern above the $44 level and Friday's price action has 
the look of the rally getting ready to extend itself again.  The 
stock managed to hold most of its intraday gains, closing just 
under $46 at a new all-time closing high.  Following last week's 
healthy consolidation, we ought to be able to tighten our stop 
again, so we're raising it to $43.90, just under last week's 
intraday lows, as well as the 10-dma ($44.10).  Traders looking 
for fresh entry points can use either a breakout over $46.25 or a 
slight pullback near $45.  If we get another clean breakout to 
new highs accompanied by strong volume, we can look for IGT to 
rally up towards the $50 level, at which point we'll want to exit 
with a very nice gain.

Picked on March 17th at     $41.82
Change since picked          +3.96
Earnings Date              4/22/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.32 mln




---

Pepsi Bottling Group - PBG - close: 30.16 chg: -0.02 stop: 28.99*new*

It took a couple of days but PBG finally triggered us on 
Wednesday when it shot up to $30.10.  Our trigger to enter the 
play was $30.05.  We're surprised the rally didn't occur on 
Tuesday when the company reaffirmed its earnings numbers and 
suggested that its Q1 earnings would come in near the top of its 
range.  One analyst suggested we might see some weakness since 
PBG didn't raise estimates for the full year despite the strong 
growth in their U.S. market.  Yet that same analyst said any 
weakness may prove to be a buying opportunity.  They may be 
right.  The stock has produced a nice trend of higher lows this 
past week and the close over $30.00 on Thursday is encouraging.  
We would consider new positions at current levels but with the 
markets so short-term overbought we might get a dip.  A bounce 
from the $29.50 level would be a preferred entry point if one 
could get it.  We are going to readjust our target.  PBG isn't 
the fastest moving stock and we only have three weeks before its 
earnings report (give or take a few days).  Our new exit target 
will be $32.50-33.00.  We're also going to raise our stop loss to 
$28.99.  More conservative traders might want to try $29.25, just 
under the 10-dma.

Annotated Chart:

 


Picked on March 31 at $30.05
Gain since picked:    + 0.11
Earnings Date       04/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    933 thousand




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Pharm. Resources - PRX - cls: 57.77 chng: +0.10 stop: 59.70*new*

After completing its breakdown under the $57 level, PRX fell 
almost to the $54 level before the obligatory oversold rebound 
began.  All along, we've been expecting a bounce back to test the 
$57-58 area as key support, once broken, should act as 
resistance.  We're seeing that play out right now, with the stock 
rising to that level over the past two days, helped along by the 
strong rebound in the rest of the market.  We deliberately left a 
wide stop on the play to allow for this rebound and it looks like 
we're near the point where a rollover can get underway.  Daily 
Stochastics are back in overbought territory and now we just need 
price action to roll over and we'll have the next solid entry 
point on our hands.  There's no equivocation from the PnF chart, 
with the recent Sell signal giving a bearish price target of $45, 
well below the $49 bullish support line.  Wait for the rollover 
to commence before adding new positions and maintain stops just 
above the 50-dma ($59.59).  Our official stop slides down to 
$59.70 this weekend.

Picked on March 17th at     $57.83
Change since picked          -0.06
Earnings Date              2/26/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       730 K





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Frontier Airlines - FRNT - close: 11.52 chg: +0.72 stop: 9.99

Company Description:
Currently in its tenth year of operations, Denver-based Frontier 
Airlines is the second largest jet service carrier at Denver 
International Airport with a fleet of 39 aircraft and employing 
approximately 4,200 aviation professionals. Frontier, in 
conjunction with Frontier JetExpress operated by Horizon Air, 
operates routes linking our Denver hub to 37 cities in 22 states 
spanning the nation from coast-to-coast and to five cities in 
Mexico. Frontier's maintenance and engineering department has 
received the Federal Aviation Administration's highest award, the 
Diamond Certificate of Excellence, in recognition of 100 percent 
of its maintenance and engineering employees completing advanced 
aircraft maintenance training programs, for five consecutive 
years. In August 2003, Frontier ranked as one of the "Top 10 
Domestic Airlines" as determined by readers of Travel & Leisure 
magazine. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
With a substantial drop in crude prices this past week the 
Airlines were some of the biggest winners.  The XAL airline index 
added 8.6% on the week.  In addition to a drop in crude oil some 
very encouraging March traffic numbers instilled new hope for the 
sector, which currently expects to see losses more than double 
this year.  Crude oil drop was due to a number of factors.  It 
could have been a sell-the-news sort of reaction to OPEC finally 
confirming they would cut production in April.  Plus there was a 
strong increase in crude supplies, which eased shortage fears.  
This was also supported by positive comments from Saudi's 
ambassador saying his country would keep the market supplied.  
Almost everyone expects some of OPEC's cartel members to cheat 
with oil prices so high and those non-member countries will 
certainly do their best to pump all they can to gain market 
share.  Together all of this should hopefully ease the rising 
fuel prices for airlines at least short term since the expanding 
economy is going to keep demand for oil pretty strong.

Combine the improving traffic numbers with a stronger revenue-per 
seat trend that some of the airlines are reporting and it's 
easier to see why investors are feeling more encouraged for the 
industry.  Normally we don't like to chase a stock that's up 13% 
in a week but FRNT looks very tempting with its new bottom at the 
$9.00 mark.  The stock has broken out above both technical and 
price resistance levels with Friday's rally on above average 
volume.  Of course this is not without risk.  Actually, we're 
placing this in the high-risk reward category because the 
airlines are always subject to headline risk.  If another 
terrorist event occurs the airlines are sure to react negatively.  
If something causes a spike in oil the airlines are going to feel 
the pressure again.  Plus, the XAL is quickly approaching 
resistance at the 200-dma and the 60 level.  Likewise FRNT is 
approaching resistance at its 100-dma and the $12.00 level.  
However, the stock did produce a new bullish P&F buy signal on 
Friday.  

We're suggesting that traders look for a dip in FRNT to initiate 
positions.  Yes, the breakout over $11.00 looks pretty strong and 
we might speculate with some risk capital at current levels but 
if we're patient we might get a better entry point in the $10.50-
11.00 range.  FRNT's P&F chart has resistance near $14.50 but we 
see the 200-dma near $14 as challenge too.  We're going to target 
a move toward $14 and see how it goes.  We'll start the play with 
a stop loss a $9.99.

Annotated Chart:

 

Picked on April 04 at $11.52
Gain since picked:    + 0.00
Earnings Date       05/21/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    798 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Sirius Sat. Radio - SIRI - cls: 3.55 chng: +0.09 stop: 3.15*new*

Sometimes you get lucky and nail the entry on a trade just right.  
That's certainly the case with SIRI, as the stock broke out the 
day after we began coverage and has been steadily scratching off 
additional resistance levels ever since.  On Friday, the bullish 
subscriber growth numbers from competitor XMSR sent SIRI through 
the $3.50 level for the first time since early January and 
despite closing well off its intraday high, the trend appears to 
be gaining strength.  Should SIRI see some profit taking early 
next week, a pullback near the $3.25-3.30 area looks like a good 
entry point, with support now likely at the 10-dma ($3.27).  
Should the rally just strengthen from here, aggressive traders 
can enter on a breakout over Friday's $3.65 intraday high, 
looking for a rapid surge towards our $4.00 target, where we'd 
suggest harvesting gains.  Note that we've raised our stop to 
$3.15 this weekend, as that level will be below the 20-dma 
($3.14) by Monday.

Picked on March 28th at      $3.24
Change since picked          +0.31
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =    63.9 mln




=================================================================
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.




PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 04-04-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of April 4th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of April 4th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

None


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AYI    Acuity Brands, Inc.   Tue, Apr 6  -----N/A-----        0.16
AA     ALCOA Inc             Tue, Apr 6  After the Bell       0.42
ISCA   Intl Speedway         Tue, Apr 6  Before the Bell      0.52
RI     Ruby Tuesday          Tue, Apr 6  After the Bell       0.47
UTIW   UTi Worldwide         Tue, Apr 6  Before the Bell      0.32


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

STZ    Constellation Brands  Wed, Apr 7  After the Bell       0.54
DNA    Genentech, Inc.       Wed, Apr 7  After the Bell       0.31
LI     Laidlaw International Wed, Apr 7  After the Bell       0.13
RIMM   Res In Motion Limited Wed, Apr 7  -----N/A-----        0.50
RPM    RPM International Inc Wed, Apr 7  After the Bell       0.06
YHOO   Yahoo, Inc.           Wed, Apr 7  -----N/A-----        0.10


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

ABT    Abbott Laboratories   Thu, Apr 8  Before the Bell      0.56
ADX    Adams Express         Thu, Apr 8  -----N/A-----         N/A
RAD    Rite Aid Corporation  Thu, Apr 8  Before the Bell      0.08
STI    SunTrust              Thu, Apr 8  Before the Bell      1.23


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

TACT    TransAct Technologies Inc 3:2      Apr   2nd   Apr   5th
CACB    Cascade Bancorp           5:4      Apr   2nd   Apr   5th
UUU     Universal Security        4:3      Apr   5th   Apr   6th
DKS     Dicks Sporting Goods, Inc 2:1      Apr   5th   Apr   6th
FCFS    First Cash Finl Serv Inc  3:2      Apr   6th   Apr   7th
CRDN    Ceradyne, Inc             3:2      Apr   7th   Apr   8th
DWCH    Datawatch Corp            2:1      Apr   8th   Apr   9th
FOSL    Fossil, Inc               3:2      Apr   8th   Apr   9th
GBTS    Gateway Finl Holdings    21:20     Apr   8th   Apr   9th
CFC     Countrywide Financial Corp3:2      Apr  12th   Apr  13th
CBU     Community Bank System Inc 2:1      Apr  12th   Apr  13th
HIBB    Hibbett Sporting Goods    3:2      Apr  16th   Apr  19th
AVD     American Vanguard Corp    3:2      Apr  16th   Apr  19th
MSFG    MainSource Financial Group3:2      Apr  16th   Apr  19th
SHFL    Shuffle Master, Inc       3:2      Apr  16th   Apr  19th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Now that the jobs report is past Wall Street will focus on the
Q1 earnings season that is just around the corner.  This week
look for the ISM services number on Monday and the PPI on 
Thursday.


==============================================================
                       -For-           

----------------
Monday, 04/05/04
----------------
ISM Services (DM)          Mar  Forecast:    61.0  Previous:     60.8


-----------------
Tuesday, 04/06/04
-----------------
None


-------------------
Wednesday, 04/07/04
-------------------
Import Prices ex-oil (BB)  Mar  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.4%
Consumer Credit (DM)       Feb  Forecast:   $7.6B  Previous:   $14.3B


------------------
Thursday, 04/08/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      04/03  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     342K
PPI (BB)         Date TBA  Mar  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.1%
Core PPI (BB)    Date TBA  Mar  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.1%
Wholesale Inventories (DM) Feb  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.1%


----------------
Friday, 04/09/04
----------------
None


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             93.10    +1.52
PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd (ADS)    50.77    +0.58
BP      BP Plc                     52.00    +1.12
AIG     American Internat Group    74.30    +1.16
ING     ING Groep Nv               23.03    +0.51
SNP     China Petro & Chem (ADS)   38.80    +0.81


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

VRSN    Verisign Inc               17.43    +1.04
TIBX    Tibco Software Inc          9.15    +1.01
SWC     Stillwater Mining Co       18.15    +2.10
GES     Guess? Inc                 19.40    +1.18
SIMG    Silicon Image Inc          12.15    +1.50


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

ADP     Automatic Data Processing  44.25    +2.11
AA      Alcoa Inc                  35.90    +1.27
SYK     Stryker Corp               92.97    +2.97
ZMH     Zimmer Holdings            78.03    +4.08
APOL    Apollo Group Inc CI A      90.97    +1.83
SPLS    Staples Inc                26.23    +1.02
PAYX    Paychex Inc                38.37    +2.15


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

WM      Washington Mutual          41.63    -1.16
NCC     National City Corp         34.94    -1.03
CFC     Countrywide Financial      91.25    -4.79


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MCO     Moody's Corporation        68.90    -1.74
NYB     New York Community Bancorp 31.63    -2.48
HMA     Helath Management Assoc    22.58    -0.48
PSUN    Pacific Sunwear Of Cal     23.68    -0.72


=================================================================
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.



DISCLAIMER

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