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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 04/11/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 04-11-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Yahoo!
Market Sentiment:  Markets Pause For Easter
Watch List:        VCLK, FRED, KKD, MYK

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
       WE 04-09        WE 04-02        WE 03-26        WE 03-19
DOW    10442.03 - 28.56 10470.6 +257.62 10212.9 + 26.37 - 53.48
Nasdaq  2052.86 -  4.31 2057.17 + 97.15 1960.02 + 19.55 - 44.26
S&P-100  556.12 -  1.98  558.10 + 14.58  543.52 -  0.16 -  6.24
S&P-500 1139.33 -  2.48 1141.81 + 33.75 1108.06 -  1.68 - 10.83
W5000  11166.06 - 36.36 11202.4 +362.24 10840.2 - 12.80 -115.20
SOX      511.78 -  2.08  513.86 + 34.61  479.25 + 15.90 - 21.75
RUT      597.88 -  5.57  603.45 + 30.53  572.92 +  2.18 - 12.10
TRAN    2926.88 - 39.78 2966.66 +130.76 2835.90 + 49.07 - 76.26
VIX       16.34 +   .69   15.64 -  1.69   17.33 -  1.82 +  0.85
VXO       15.83 +   .27   15.56 -  1.65   17.21 -  1.95 +  0.44
VXN       21.38 +   .03   21.35 -  1.69   23.04 -  2.95 +  0.69
TRIN       0.82            0.52            0.89            1.93
Put/Call   0.74            0.68            0.77            1.03
WE = week ending
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Yahoo!
by Jim Brown

The earnings blowout by Yahoo had traders in Internet stocks
yelling Yahoo! on Friday but they we about the only traders
with any real excitement. YHOO gained +7.86 to $56.20 and a
three year high. Unfortunately the broader markets were down
across the board on weekend event fears. Only the Nasdaq and
the SOX were able to close in positive territory thanks
mostly to YHOO and Dell.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


S&P Chart - Daily



Thursday morning opened with a bang and the S&P rallied
right to the 1150 resistance level on strong earnings. The
gap open failed to hold once shorts covered on the stocks
impacted and the trend for the day immediately turned down.
It was not due to a lack of positive earnings news but more
of an abundance of terror news. We had hostages in Iraq,
bomb scares in Paris, refineries exploding in the US and
the 9/11 testimony to provide unrest before the holidays.

The economic news in the US was good with Chain Store Sales
for March rising +7.0% and stretching the string of months
over 6% to three. This was above expectations and suggests
the consumer is not as concerned about conditions as the
February sentiment reports suggested. Gains were broad
based and were up +12.6% year over year. 61% of retailers
beat expectations. Forecasters did predict a drop to only
+5.5% growth in April due to the early Easter this year.
Only +5.5% growth? Retailers would gladly take it.

Jobless claims fell to 328,000 and the lowest level since
Jan-2001. This is very good news and suggests employment
is increasing and the April jobs report will show strong
gains. This is one of those good news-bad news numbers.
If we do see back to back blowout Jobs numbers the Fed
would feel it necessary to start the rate hike process.

More good news came from the Manufacturers Alliance Survey
which set a new record high at 78 for 2004-Q1. The majority
of the components rose with the exception of the investment
index which fell to 69 from 81. The MAPI is showing strong
correspondence to the ISM and the ISM has been above 60 for
the last five months. This is the longest string since 1983.

The Wholesale Trade numbers showed a big jump to +1.3%
compared to estimates of only +0.5%. The inventory
component jumped +1.2% and was twice the level expected
by analysts. Wholesale sales also jumped +1.3%. Despite
this bounce in sales the inventory to sale ratio remained
at record low levels of 1.17. This is very positive as
we move forward and suggests we will see even further
gains in manufacturing to keep up with the pace of sales.
This is however old data for the February period but the
trend was definitely up and we saw nothing to change the
trend in March.

The good economic news is being helped by positive earnings
and today was a good preview of next week. Yahoo blew out
estimates Thursday night and jumped to a three year high.
The Internet business is good and the survivors are doing
very well. All the current players soared on the news but
it was likely more of a Yahoo specific event. As Yahoo
expands its reach with things like its acquisition of
Monster.com, Inktomi, Overture and others it is becoming
a broad based cash generator and not just an Internet
portal. While ASKJ, CNET, INSP, FWHT, LOOK, AQNT, DCLK
and SINA may have jumped to new levels on the news none
of them have the breadth and depth of Yahoo. YHOO also
announced a 2:1 split.

Adding to the positive outlook for techs was the guidance
upgrade from Dell. The company raised its guidance by
+$200 million for the quarter and increased a planned
stock buyback. While that was positive news the real
excitement came from Dell's longer term comments. They
said shipments of PCs and other Dell products were growing
so quickly they would likely exceed their $60 billion sales
goal for 2007. Last year they booked only $41 billion. This
is strong statements from the computer manufacturer. They
also said the long awaited IT replacement cycle had begun
and corporations were finally replacing aging systems.
Dell's CFO said they were seeing better than expected
demand and they were hitting targets across every business
category. He expects revenue to increase +25% in Q1. Dell
rose to $35.60 on the news and close to a three month high.

The very optimistic outlook from Dell helped power the SOX
to a gain for the day despite the negative market action.
Intel rose strongly at the open but closed negative because
of lingering fears that the STX notebook warning this week
was going to impact Intel's earnings next week. Also hitting
Intel was news that Japan's FTC raided three Intel offices
in an antitrust probe. AMD has complained in Europe and
Asia that Intel has been competing unfairly by selling
chips cheaper to push AMD out of the market. Antitrust
rules overseas are seen as stricter than in the US and
this is an example of the trouble AMD has caused. AMD
also claims Intel threatened to halt shipments of chips
to manufacturers that also sold computers made with AMD
chips.

Another major earnings release on Thursday came from GE
which reported $3.2 billion in profit for the quarter.
This amazing performance was inline with expectations and
GE said nine of its 11 businesses had double-digit growth.
Among its 11 divisions, profit rose 53 percent in its
equipment and other services operation, 40 percent in
advanced materials and 20 percent in its infrastructure
business. Profits fell 28 percent in the energy division
and 20 percent in insurance. They are continuing to grow
with almost monthly acquisitions. They recently completed
their acquisition of Amersham and have deals in the works
to acquire INVN and Vivendi among others. Overall Jeff
Immelt said business was booming with the broadest growth
since early 2000. He said industrial orders had jumped
+20% and sales in its growth business had jumped +29%
for the quarter. Sounds like a pretty strong projection
of the current economy.

What all of this means for next week is that earnings are
going to be strong for most companies. There are some weak
spots like Seagate and SunMicro but overall the economy
and earnings appear to be growing strongly. The question
is will this translate into higher stock prices. The rally
over the last two weeks has been on expectations of strong
earnings. How much higher can it go? Will strong earnings
from +300 companies next week push us higher in the face
of continued terror threats and rising violence in Iraq
or will traders call it a day, pocket profits and head to
the safety of the sidelines?

There is historical evidence that in presidential election
years markets tend to decline after the April earnings
peak until after the Democratic convention. That event
is in late July. I think broad historical trends are
just that, broadly historical and may not be specific
to any single election year. The trend comes from the
non-incumbent party using the economy as a club against
the incumbent party and the negative sentiment created
depresses the markets. Traders hate uncertainty and there
will be uncertainty until the convention is over. Once
all the issues have been dissected, the VP candidate
named and the final race begins investors will decide
how to place their bets. The other convention begins
August 30th but is not deemed as important to traders.
In theory the attacking party has to storm the castle
with every weapon it can find and the incumbent party
defends from a position of strength.

This week was clearly a profit-taking week. The markets
opened strong and concluded a two week rally on Tuesday.
The flurry of earnings warnings headlined by NOK/STX put
a cloud on techs and the sudden increase in violence in
Iraq added rain to that cloud. Reports of bomb threats
and the 9/11 inquisition focused traders thoughts on the
long weekend event risk. It could not have been scripted
any better. The markets needed to rest after a +563 point
Dow romp. They used the multiple excuses above to take
profits and reposition themselves for the coming week. In
my opinion next week will start off with a bang assuming
we have no explosions over the weekend.

The Dow is very well positioned after the -130 point two
day drop and the Nasdaq is in even better shape only -23
points off the highs for the week. Even better off is the
Russell, which closed only -2 points from resistance at
600. The selling on Friday was light as was the volume
and there was buying at the close as bargain hunters
jumped in front of an expected Monday bounce. I am sure
there were plenty of shorts covering as well but that
also is bullish. It means they were also expecting a
Monday bounce.

If we do bounce next week there is still strong resistance
in the Dow 10600-10650 range and it will be tough to break.
The Nasdaq has strong resistance at 2090-2100. Both indexes
have room to run but they will quickly run into a steep
uphill climb. While I personally think we will start the
week positive it will be much more difficult to end the
week at a higher level.

Should we move down on Monday the Dow has two retracement
levels in the 10300-10350 range that should hold any
selling. The Nasdaq has a little more risk with a large
unfilled gap from April 2nd at 2013 and no strong support
until 1980-2000. This would not be a major step backwards
for either index but it would be a major black eye for
April earnings sentiment and a potential resumption of
the January down trend.

For the week to be successful and for the April earnings
run to be successful we must move higher on Monday/Tuesday.
If we do not move higher early then the premise for any
remaining April gains will be seriously in question. The
challenge remains in the expectations. If the coming
earnings reports contain guidance similar to Dell and YHOO
then a case could be built for another quarter of strong
growth. If these reports end up with a proliferation of
only inline guidance then we could be in trouble. We have
discussed before that comparisons for the rest of the year
will become progressively harder.

For Monday I would gladly join in any opening rally and
ride it as far as it goes. I would also not hesitate to
jump off the train should the momentum appear to slow as
we near resistance. Despite the strong earnings potential
sentiment is weakening. Whether from terror news, Iraq
news, election concerns or just simply from a tired year
long tech rally we don't know. We really should not care.
Many investors have gone bust trading their beliefs instead
of the market. Enjoy any rally we get next week but keep
your stops in place in case it fails.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Markets Pause For Easter
- J. Brown

As of last Monday the stock markets were very short-term
overbought and due for a pull back.  We got that pull back over
the last three days with relatively mild profit taking.
Thursday's weakness was completely related to the long weekend
and investor concerns that we could see a terrorist event,
especially with new fighting in Iraq and the recent string of
bomb threats in Europe.  Assuming the long Easter weekend is a
quiet one the markets feel ready to resume the rally as the
earnings parade begins again on Tuesday.

Contributing to investor optimism was the strong earnings news on
Wednesday evening.  No doubt you've heard of YHOO's impressive
numbers and 2:1 split announcement.  This launched the Internet
index to a new 2 1/2 year high and YHOO to new 3 1/2 year highs.
RIMM and DNA joined in with strong earnings news and split
announcements of their own.  Even DELL chimed in by raising their
revenue estimates.  This completely erased the dark clouds
created by Nokia's warning and Alcoa's earnings miss on Tuesday.
First Call is predicting that earnings should grow between 17-20%
so there is understandably a positive under current for stocks.
Further contributing to the positive tone was the jobless claim
numbers and news that corporate layoffs were at the lowest levels
in three years.

I'm not trying to downplay the rising tensions in Iraq.  They're
experiencing the worst fighting since the official end of the
war.  However, I believe that the U.S. army will do what it takes
to regain control of the cities in question.  The challenge to
the stock market is the perception that this has become the
quagmire it was feared to be, which will negatively impact Bush's
reelection efforts.  Fortunately with earnings season here Wall
Street should be distracted for the next few weeks with corporate
announcements and guidance.  Watch out for the "sell-the-news"
reaction we saw in January.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8145
Current     : 10442

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10417
 50-dma: 10455
200-dma:  9876



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  862
Current     : 1139

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1133
 50-dma: 1133
200-dma: 1063



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1018
Current     : 1485

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1465
 50-dma: 1459
200-dma: 1393


-----------------------------------------------------------------

The VIX and VXO traded higher on Thursday as traders loaded up
on puts to protect positions over the long weekend.  The VXN
slipped lower on mild strength in tech stocks.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.26 +0.50
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.83 +0.41
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.38 -0.61

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.74        701,853       516,837
Equity Only    0.59        576,071       338,140
OEX            0.92         36,625        33,752
QQQ            3.24         14,057        45,608


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          76.1    + 2     Bull Correction
NASDAQ-100    53.0    + 0     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   90.0    + 7     Bear Correction
S&P 500       77.2    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       80.0    + 1     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.90
10-dma: 0.86
21-dma: 1.18
55-dma: 1.17


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     976      1427
Decliners    1794      1657

New Highs     107       132
New Lows       24        15

Up Volume    600M      876M
Down Vol.    819M      789M

Total Vol.  1437M     1682M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 03/30/04

*****EDITOR'S NOTE*****
Look For New COT Data on Tuesday's Edition of the Market Sentiment!
***********************

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Not much change in the commercial traders' positions this
past week.  Small traders turned a little less bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
03/09/04      418,394   433,237   (14,843)   (1.7%)
03/16/04      454,635   449,505     5,130     0.6%
03/23/04      401,456   418,732   (17,273)   (2.1%)
03/30/04      407,987   420,624   (12,673)   (1.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04      155,947    88,317    67,630    27.7%
03/16/04      159,054   115,023    44,031    25.3%
03/23/04      130,648    89,943    40,705    18.5%
03/30/04      130,112    81,937    48,175    22.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Almost the same holds true here.  Commercial traders edged up
their short positions but not by much.  Small traders turned a
little less bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
03/09/04      431,623   485,268    (53,645)  ( 5.9%)
03/16/04      472,809   574,241   (101,432)  ( 9.7%)
03/23/04      268,647   294,930    (26,283)  ( 4.7%)
03/30/04      265,492   305,797    (40,305)  ( 7.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04     135,233     76,558    58,675    27.7%
03/16/04     192,136     96,691    95,445    33.0%
03/23/04     131,879     59,210    72,669    38.0%
03/30/04     123,494     59,550    63,944    35.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Whoa!  Commercials turned bearish on the NASDAQ just before
it broke out over resistance.  Unless that's a typo by the COT
it will be interesting to see how that number changes next
week.  Small traders turned more bearish.  It's been a painful
week for everyone here.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04       57,368     46,082    11,286   10.9%
03/16/04       68,285     54,899    13,386   10.9%
03/23/04       52,014     34,017    17,997   20.9%
03/30/04       52,749     67,967   (15,218) (12.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  13,386   - 03/16/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04       15,533     8,070     7,463    31.6%
03/16/04       27,859    18,333     9,526    20.6%
03/23/04        9,884    12,887    (3,003)  (13.2%)
03/30/04        8,928    16,551    (7,623)  (30.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Very little change in commercial traders' positions while
small traders pared back their longs.  Remember, these numbers
are prior to the jobs report on Friday.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/09/04       26,867    12,845   14,022      35.3%
03/16/04       32,317    17,514   14,803      29.7%
03/23/04       23,048    22,119      929       2.1%
03/30/04       23,642    22,180    1,462       3.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/09/04        7,053    19,159  (12,106)   (46.2%)
03/16/04       10,002    20,970  (10,968)   (35.4%)
03/23/04        8,344     6,734    1,610     10.7%
03/30/04        7,020     6,711      309      2.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

ValueClick Inc - VCLK - close: 12.48 change: +1.63

WHAT TO WATCH: The very impressive earnings report from YHOO sent
Internet stocks soaring.  One such lucky issue was VCLK.  The
renewed expectations for online advertising have inspired a 15%
jump in VCLK.  This is a new 3 1/2 year high for the stock.
Bullish traders might do well to look for a dip to $12.00 or even
the $11.50 area before considering new positions.  Earnings
should be on April 27th.




---

Fred's Inc. - FRED - close: 22.72 change: -3.05

WHAT TO WATCH: Ouch!  Disappointing same-store sales numbers
helped send FRED to an 11.8% decline.  The stock managed to stall
its descent at support of $22.50 but volume was huge and we'd
look for some follow through.  If it breaks Thursday's low
(22.37) traders can probably target a move to $20.00.  FRED
certainly has a consistent trend of lower highs to inspire
confidence in the bears.




---

Krispy Kreme Doughnuts - KKD - close: 33.59 change: -0.63

WHAT TO WATCH: The rebound has already turned stale for KKD and
the stock has closed under what should have been support in the
34.00-33.65 range.  There might still be additional support at
its March lows but the P&F chart has also broken through support
and points to a $26 price target.  We'd probably consider the $30
mark as a good target.




---

Mykrolis - MYK - close: 15.30 change: +0.14

WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor stocks are still poised to rally
next week, especially if Intel can deliver a positive earnings
report on Tuesday.  We'd consider MYK as a potential bullish
candidate with a trigger over today's high of $15.59, which
happens to coincide with its simple 100-dma.  Volume has been
strong on the rallies and it wouldn't surprise us to see it
eventually trade back toward the $17.00-17.50 range.  Yet be
cautious.  MYK is expected to announce earnings on or around
April 27th.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

TRMB $24.17 +0.06 - We're still bullish on TRMB but earnings are
coming up on or around April 27th.  Traders might want to
consider buying dips to $23.50 or a breakout over $25.00.
Remember, we don't like to hold over an earnings report.  There
are just too many unknown variables that can send the stock
lower.

FLSH $22.79 +0.81 - This is a new multi-year closing high for
FLSH and although it looks short-term overbought the pending
breakout over $23.00 looks encouraging.

BEBE $33.21 -1.64 - Earnings are expected on April 22nd but from
the looks of today's candle investors aren't very excited.  BEBE
announced March same-store sales of 20% growth and raised its
guidance and still traders sold the stock.  Thursday's candle is
a big bearish engulfing pattern and traders can probably target
the $30 level but look for some confirmation on the reversal next
week.


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 04-11-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bullish Plays:     MENT
  Closed Bullish Plays:  LEXR

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays:     FLIR
  New Bearish Plays:     DG
  Bullish Play Updates:  APA, PAAS
  Closed Bullish Plays:  FNF, IGT, PBG

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates:  FRNT


Stock Splits
  Announcements:         BKST


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Mentor Graphics - MENT - close: 17.86 chg: +0.01 stop: 17.25

Company Description:
Mentor Graphics Corporation is a world leader in electronic
hardware and software design solutions, providing products,
consulting services and award-winning support for the world's
most successful electronics and semiconductor companies.
Established in 1981, the company reported revenues over the last
12 months of about $675 million and employs approximately 3,700
people worldwide.  (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The SOX semiconductor index has lead a very strong rebound off
its March lows as investors bought what many believed to be the
long awaited 10% correction in the NASDAQ.  Now that earnings
season is here traders will be looking for chip companies to
deliver on expectations for 2004 to see 20% growth in
semiconductor sales.  In addition to playing the chip makers
investors are also looking at companies in the Electronic Design
Automation (EDA) business.  These are the folks who help
companies like Intel design the next generation of smaller,
faster semiconductors.

MENT is one such company and the stock has recently broken out
above resistance at $18.00.  The stock also has a very
encouraging point-and-figure chart but we need to see a breakout
over the $18.50 mark.  We're going to set a TRIGGER at $18.51,
which would be the triple-top breakout buy signal on the P&F
chart.  Our target will be the $20-21 range but no matter where
MENT is at we will close the play before its April 22nd earnings
report.   We'll start the play with a stop loss at $17.25 once
triggered.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- See Trigger
Gain since picked:    + 0.00
Earnings Date       04/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    988 thousand




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Lexar Media - LEXR - close: 18.07 change: +0.11 stop: 16.95

We made it!  Some positive comments from JP Morgan yesterday, who
raised their earnings estimates for LEXR and some opening
strength on Thursday sent LEXR to our official exit point at
$18.50.  If a 15% gain isn't enough the close over $18.00 on
Thursday bodes well for next week.  While we're closing the play
more aggressive traders might consider just raising their stops
and seeing how far LEXR can go before its Thursday, April 15th
earnings announcement.  Watch out for resistance near $18.60.
We'd consider protecting profits with a tight stop.  $17.75
wouldn't be a bad spot for a stop loss.

Picked on March 29 at $16.01
Gain since picked:    + 2.06
Earnings Date       04/15/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    3.5 million




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

FLIR Systems - FLIR - close: 39.75 change: +0.28 stop: 37.00

Company Description:
FLIR is engaged in the design, manufacture and marketing of
thermal imaging and stabilized camera systems for a wide variety
of commercial, industrial and government applications.  The
company's products are divided into two categories, which include
the thermography products and imaging products.  In the
Thermography division, FLIR manufactures products that are sold
to commercial, industrial, research and machine vision customers.
For industrial customers, FLIR has developed thermography systems
that feature accurate temperature measurement, storage and
analysis.  The Imaging division caters to military, law
enforcement, surveillance and security customers.

Why we like it:
Since first peaking near the $40 level in January, shares of FLIR
have been consolidating in a bullish rising wedge and the stock
appears ready to make a run to new highs.  Tracing out a pattern
of higher lows and most recently bouncing from the 100-dma
($32.28) in late March, FLIR is nearing the point where one solid
push will have it in breakout mode.  That bullish view is echoed
by the PnF chart, which has posted three consecutive tops at $40
and a trade at $41 will have the stock issuing a triple top Buy
signal as it pushes to new all-time highs.  We don't want to jump
the gun though, and we're going to force the stock to break out
before we take action.  We'll set our entry trigger at $41, as
the combination of the breakout to new highs and the new PnF Buy
signal should generate solid follow-through to the upside.

Note that the rising trendline connecting the lows since December
coincides almost exactly with the 100-dma, giving us a natural
point to define our $37 stop, just under key support.  Entries
look favorable on the initial breakout, although more
conservative traders may want to wait for a subsequent pullback
to confirm old resistance near $40 as new support.  Once the
breakout occurs, we'll look to trail our stop up to $38, as that
is below the 20-dma ($38.18) and the 50-dma ($38.43).  Following
the breakout, FLIR should not drop below that point.  Since the
company doesn't report earnings until May, that gives us ample
time to play the breakout without having to exit prematurely due
to the risk of holding over the announcement.  Our profit target
will be set at $45.

Annotated Chart of FLIR:



Picked on April 11th at     $39.75
Change since picked          +0.00
Earnings Date              2/04/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       323 K



  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Dollar General - DG - close: $18.74 change: -0.46 stop: 19.21

Company Description:
Dollar General is a Fortune 500. discount retailer with 6,874
neighborhood stores as of April 2, 2004. Dollar General stores
offer convenience and value to customers by offering consumable
basic items that are frequently used and replenished, such as
food, snacks, health and beauty aids and cleaning supplies, as
well as a selection of basic apparel, housewares and seasonal
items at everyday low prices. The Company store support center is
located in Goodlettsville, Tennessee. (source: company press
release)

Why We Like It:
The entire dollar-store industry has been a major under performer
the last several weeks.  Granted most stocks suffered during the
market pull back from the January highs but the dollar-store
sector hasn't shown much of a bounce.  Undermining investor
confidence was an earnings warning from 99-cent Only Stores (NDN)
a couple of days ago, which sent the stock to a new yearly low.
Shares of DLTR don't look much better. We're drawn to DG because
the stock is approaching support and that gives us a chance to
short a breakdown.

More aggressive traders might want to consider shorts under
$18.50, which would be a new 3 1/2 month low.  We're going to
look for a little more conviction and use a TRIGGER at $17.99.
DG has pretty decent support at the $18 level dating back to last
summer.  Besides by the time it hits our trigger the stock's MACD
should complete the new sell signal that's currently building and
it should produce a new sell signal on its P& F chart.  Today's
2.39% decline was partially driven by its March same-store sales
news.  DG announced March same-store sales rose 3.2% but this was
below last March's 4.2% increase.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on April xx at $xx.xx <-- See Trigger
Gain since picked:    + 0.00
Earnings Date       03/15/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    2.0 million




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Apache Corp. - APA - close: 42.54 change: +0.22 stop: 40.75*new*

On the surface, it's been a rather lackluster couple of weeks for
APA, with the stock continually stymied by resistance near
$43.50.  Despite this lack of upward progress, the stock still
looks solidly bullish, with the trend of higher lows continuing
to build as the bullish wedge continues to tighten.  Once again,
the stock attempted to rally on Thursday, but with the broad
market unable to advance, APA slid back down towards the $42
support level.  That level is reinforced by the rising trendline
(now $41.65) as well as the 30-dma ($41.98).  With the recent
push slightly over the $43.50 trigger, we can now take advantage
of near-term weakness to get a more favorable entry.  Dips near
$42 still look good for entry, so long as price doesn't drop
straight through.  We'll reduce our risk in the play this weekend
by raising our stop to $40.75, just under the 50-dma ($40.79).

Picked on March 17th at     $43.17
Change since picked          -0.63
Earnings Date              4/22/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.34 mln




---

Pan American Silver - PAAS - cls: 18.55 chng: -0.58 stop: 17.50

When we initiated coverage on PAAS last week, we were really
hoping for a pullback to provide a decent entry point.
Fortunately, the market obliged over the past few days, with
price dipping back to the top of the $18.00-18.50 support zone in
response to the price of silver pulling back a bit to consolidate
just over the $8.00 level.  Looking at the daily chart of PAAS,
we can see that there should be strong support in the $18.00-
18.50 area, as it was strong resistance for over a month
preceding the latest breakout.  Resistance, once broken, becomes
support.  In addition, the 20-dma ($17.87) and 30-dma ($17.72)
are rising to help reinforce that support.  New entries in the
above-mentioned support area look favorable in advance of a
renewed rally and expected breakout over $20.  Maintain stops at
$17.50.

Picked on April 1st at      $19.61
Change since picked          -1.06
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =    1.31 mln





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------





============
CLOSED PLAYS
============


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Fidelity Nat. Fin. - FNF - close: 38.62 change: -0.01 stop: 38.00

The first day out of the gate our FNF play was looking great,
blasting through resistance on strong volume.  Unfortunately,
that was all she wrote for the bulls.  The stock reversed that
breakout the next day on the strong Jobs numbers and it has been
losing ground ever since.  The last two days have seen FNF
testing its 50-dma and so far, there's no indication of a rebound
like we've seen in the past.  That doesn't mean that this isn't
another solid entry point, just that we can't see it from our
vantage point.  Better to step aside and wait for clarity to
return.  We'd recommend using any rebound on Monday as an
opportunity for a more favorable exit.

Picked on March 31st at     $39.60
Change since picked          -0.98
Earnings Date                  N/A
Average Daily Volume =       992 K




---

Intl Game Tech - IGT - cls: 45.16 chng: -0.56 stop: 43.90

After waiting patiently, we finally got the strong breakout in
shares of IGT that propelled the stock up to just shy of the $47
level.  While we were willing to let it ride as high as the bulls
cared to push it, the weakness in the past couple sessions has us
turning a bit timid.  Better to book the gain here and look for a
new opportunity to play at a lower level than let those gains
bleed away.  Daily oscillators are starting to tip bearish and
Thursday's big red candle doesn't bode well for the bulls.
Should shares bounce higher on Monday, we'd recommend using that
strength to gain a more favorable exit.

Picked on March 17th at     $41.82
Change since picked          +3.34
Earnings Date              4/22/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.38 mln




---

Pepsi Bottling Group - PBG - close: 30.41 chg: +0.17 stop: 28.99

Uh-oh!  PBG surprised us with an announcement yesterday that
earnings will be on April 13th (Tuesday) and not April 20th as
previously expected.  We don't like to hold over an earnings
announcement due to there being too many unknown variables that
can negatively affect the stock price.  The bullish breakout over
$30.00 is great but we've not seen much follow through so we're
not too heartbroken on this early exit plan.

Picked on March 31 at $30.05
Gain since picked:    + 0.36
Earnings Date       04/20/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    933 thousand




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================


============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Frontier Airlines - FRNT - close: 11.16 chg: -0.14 stop: 9.99

Our high-risk reward play has yet to pan out.  We were expecting
a dip to $10.50-11.00 and the best we got was a dip on Wednesday
to $10.94.  If you're an optimist then we should be happy for
FRNT's relative strength.  What we don't like are the weakening
technical oscillators.  FRNT issued some very positive March
traffic numbers on Tuesday.  Their load factor jumped 9.2 points
to 74.9.  The "available seat miles" soared 31.2% over last year
while its "revenue passenger miles" jumped 49.5%.  All of this is
good news but it was overshadowed by a very strong surge in crude
oil, which is poised to breakout over resistance at $37.00 a
barrel.  Furthermore investors were apprehensive about owning
airline stocks ahead of the long three-day weekend with tensions
rising in Iraq and bomb threats becoming more common overseas.
If the weekend survives without incident then we may see a relief
rally on Monday.  However, watch FRNT's 100-dma near the $12.00
mark as potential resistance.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on April 04 at $11.52
Gain since picked:    - 0.36
Earnings Date       05/21/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    798 thousand




==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

BKST announces 3-for-2 split

Before Thursday's opening bell Brookstone, Inc. (NASDAQ:BKST)
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock
split of its common shares.

The split will take effect as a 50% stock dividend, which will be
paid on April 26th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of April
19th.

About the company:
Brookstone, Inc. is a specialty retailer that operates 271
Brookstone brand stores nationwide and in Puerto Rico. Typically
located in high-traffic regional shopping malls and airports, the
stores feature unique and innovative consumer products. The
Company also operates three stores under the Gardeners Eden Brand,
and a direct marketing business that consists of three catalogs
titles -- Brookstone, Hard-to-Find Tools and Gardeners Eden -- as
well as e- commerce web sites at http://www.brookstone.com/ and
http://www.gardenerseden.com. (source: company press release)


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 04-11-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of April 4th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of April 4th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

FNB    F.N.B. Corporation    Mon, Apr 12  -----N/A-----       0.29
GCI    Gannett               Mon, Apr 12  Before the Bell     1.00
IFIN   Invest Finl Serv Corp Mon, Apr 12  -----N/A-----       0.45
MDC    M.D.C Holdings        Mon, Apr 12  After the Bell      1.44
NVLS   Novellus Systems, Inc Mon, Apr 12  -----N/A-----       0.10
ROS    Rostelecom            Mon, Apr 12  -----N/A-----        N/A
NYT    The New York Times Co Mon, Apr 12  Before the Bell     0.36
TSCO   Tractor Supply Co     Mon, Apr 12  After the Bell      0.05


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ASO    AmSouth Bancorp       Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell     0.45
ARA    ARACRUZ CELULOSE S A  Tue, Apr 13  -----N/A-----       0.35
BBT    BB&T Corporation      Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell     0.63
CBH    Commerce Bancorp, Inc Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell     0.75
CBSH   Commerce Bancshares   Tue, Apr 13  -----N/A-----       0.75
DJ     Dow Jones & Company   Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell     0.20
INFY   Infosys Tech LTD      Tue, Apr 13  -----N/A-----       0.56
INTC   Intel Corporation     Tue, Apr 13  After the Bell      0.27
JEF    Jefferies Group       Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell     0.45
JNJ    Johnson & Johnson     Tue, Apr 13  -----N/A-----       0.80
LLTC   Linear Technology     Tue, Apr 13  After the Bell      0.25
MI     Marshall & Ilsley     Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell     0.62
MCD    McDonalds Corporation Tue, Apr 13  -----N/A-----       0.37
PBG    Pepsi Bottling Group  Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell     0.17
PHG    Royal Philips Elect   Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell      N/A
STT    State Street Corp     Tue, Apr 13  Before the Bell     0.66
WABC   Westamerica Bancorp   Tue, Apr 13  -----N/A-----       0.75
WES    Westcorp              Tue, Apr 13  After the Bell      0.80
WFSI   WFS Financial         Tue, Apr 13  After the Bell      1.47


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

ADTN   ADTRAN, Inc.          Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell     0.22
AMD    Advanced Micro Dev    Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.03
AMB    AMB Property Corp     Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.53
ASD    American Standard     Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell     1.13
AAPL   Apple Computer, Inc.  Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.09
BAC    Bank of America Corp  Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell     1.80
BRE    BRE PROPERTIES INC    Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.57
BRO    Brown & Brown         Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.49
CEC    CEC Entertainment     Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.78
CYN    City National Corp    Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.99
CNET   CNET Networks         Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell     -0.04
CCK    CROWN HOLDINGS INC    Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell     -0.05
DHI    D.R. Horton           Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.71
DAL    DELTA AIR LINES DEL   Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell    -2.96
DRL    Doral Financial       Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.81
ETN    Eaton                 Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell     0.79
LRCX   Lam Research          Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.10
MOGN   MGI Pharma            Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell    -0.08
MTG    MGIC Investment Corp. Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell     1.19
OCENY  Oci N.V.              Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell      N/A
RJF    Raymond James         Wed, Apr 14  -----N/A-----       0.37
RDC    Rowan Companies, Inc. Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell    -0.06
SNDK   SanDisk Corp.         Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.32
TSFG   South Financial Group Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell     0.46
STLD   Steel Dynamics        Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.49
TFX    Teleflex, Incorp      Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.73
TXN    Texas Instruments     Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      0.21
SSP    The E.W. Scripps Co   Wed, Apr 14  Before the Bell     0.71
PGR    The Progressive Corp  Wed, Apr 14  After the Bell      1.76
TSS    TSYS                  Wed, Apr 14  -----N/A-----       0.17


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

AD     ADVO                  Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.41
AVID   Avid Technology, Inc. Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.37
CSL    Carlisle Companies    Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.64
CATY   Cathay General BancorpThu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.75
CDWC   CDW Computer Centers  Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.59
CEN    Ceridian              Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.16
C      Citigroup Inc.        Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.94
CMA    Comerica Incorporated Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.89
CFBX   Comm First Bankshares Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.47
CREE   Cree Inc.             Thu, Apr 15  -----N/A-----       0.18
CY     Cypress Semiconductor Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.18
DCLK   DoubleClick           Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.05
EWBC   East West Bancorp     Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.65
EMC    EMC Corporation       Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.06
EMMS   Emmis Communications  Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell    -0.08
EQT    Equitable Resources   Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     1.09
FCS    Frchld Semiconr Intl  Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.15
FITB   Fifth Third Bancorp   Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.75
FMER   FirstMerit            Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.33
GPC    Genuine Parts         Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.54
GENZ   Genzyme Corporation   Thu, Apr 15  -----N/A-----       0.37
GGG    Graco                 Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.30
HIB    Hibernia Corp.        Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.44
HCBK   Hudson City Bancorp   Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.29
HBAN   Huntington Bancshares Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.40
IBM    Intl Business MachinesThu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.93
JCI    Johnson Controls      Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.81
KEY    KeyCorp               Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.53
KRI    Knight Ridder         Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.67
LSTR   Landstar System       Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.23
LEXR   Lexar Media           Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.12
LECO   Lincoln Electric      Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.39
LOGI   Logitech Intl         Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.69
MEG    Media General         Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.31
MOLX   Molex Inc.            Thu, Apr 15  -----N/A-----       0.22
NCC    National City         Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.72
NCF    Natl Commerce Finl    Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.44
NAP    National Processing   Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.16
NFLX   NetFlix.com           Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell     -0.03
NE     Noble Corporation     Thu, Apr 15  -----N/A-----       0.20
NFB    North Fork Bancorp    Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.67
PBCT   People's Bank         Thu, Apr 15  -----N/A-----       0.31
PEP    PepsiCo               Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.46
PMCS   PMC-Sierra, Inc.      Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.04
PII    Polaris Industries    Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.30
PPG    PPG Industries        Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.58
RS     Reliance Steel        Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.81
SEBL   Siebel Systems        Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.05
SLM    SLM Corporation       Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.50
LUV    Southwest Airlines    Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.04
SYK    Stryker               Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.63
SUNW   Sun Microsystems      Thu, Apr 15  -----N/A-----      -0.06
TCB    TCF Financial Corp    Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.85
MNI    The McClatchy Company Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.59
TRB    Tribune               Thu, Apr 15  -----N/A-----       0.43
UCBH   UCBH Holdings, Inc.   Thu, Apr 15  After the Bell      0.37
UPC    Union Planters Corp   Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.50
UIS    Unisys                Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.09
WFSL   Washington Federal    Thu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.42
WBS    Webster Financial CorpThu, Apr 15  Before the Bell     0.91


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

BXS    BancorpSouth, Inc.    Fri, Apr 16  After the Bell      0.39
CPF    Central Pacific Finl  Fri, Apr 16  Before the Bell     0.49
CNB    Colonial BancGroup    Fri, Apr 16  Before the Bell     0.30
CBSS   Compass Bancshares    Fri, Apr 16  -----N/A-----       0.69
DPH    Delphi                Fri, Apr 16  Before the Bell     0.20
ET     E*TRADE Group, Inc.   Fri, Apr 16  Before the Bell     0.20
FFCH   First Finl Holdings   Fri, Apr 16  -----N/A-----       0.43
LEE    Lee Ent, Incorp       Fri, Apr 16  Before the Bell     0.36
NOK    Nokia                 Fri, Apr 16  -----N/A-----       0.24
PTZ    Pulitzer Inc.         Fri, Apr 16  Before the Bell     0.38
RF     Regions Financial CorpFri, Apr 16  Before the Bell     0.74
PIK    Water Pik TechnologiesFri, Apr 16  -----N/A-----        N/A
WL     Wilmington Trust      Fri, Apr 16  Before the Bell     0.54


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

CFC     Countrywide Financial Corp3:2      Apr  12th   Apr  13th
CBU     Community Bank System Inc 2:1      Apr  12th   Apr  13th
HIBB    Hibbett Sporting Goods    3:2      Apr  16th   Apr  19th
AVD     American Vanguard Corp    3:2      Apr  16th   Apr  19th
MSFG    MainSource Financial Group3:2      Apr  16th   Apr  19th
SHFL    Shuffle Master, Inc       3:2      Apr  16th   Apr  19th
UNFI    United Natural Foods, Inc 2:1      Apr  19th   Apr  20th
MTLM    Metal                     2:1      Apr  20th   Apr  21st
CRED    CREDO Petroleum Corp      3:2      Apr  20th   Apr  21st


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

The Q1 Earnings parade begins on Tuesday and won't stop for the
next four to five weeks.  Plus we have a very heavy economic
report schedule this week starting on Tuesday and running through
Friday.


==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 04/12/04
----------------
None


-----------------
Tuesday, 04/13/04
-----------------
Business Inventories (BB)  Feb  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.1%
Retail Sales (BB)          Mar  Forecast:    0.7%  Previous:     0.7%
Retail Sales Ex-auto (BB)  Mar  Forecast:    0.6%  Previous:     0.0%
Treasury Budget (DM)       Mar  Forecast: -$70.0B  Previous:  -$58.9B


-------------------
Wednesday, 04/14/04
-------------------
Trade Balance (BB)         Feb  Forecast: -$42.6B  Previous:  -$43.1B
CPI (BB)                   Mar  Forecast:    0.3%  Previous:     0.3%
Core CPI (BB)              Mar  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.2%


------------------
Thursday, 04/15/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      04/10  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:      N/A
NY Empire State Index (BB) Apr  Fprecast:    29.0  Previous:     25.3
Philadelphia Fed (DM)      Apr  Forecast:    26.0  Previous:     24.2


----------------
Friday, 04/16/04
----------------
Housing Starts (BB)        Mar  Forecast:   1900K  Previous:    1855K
Building Permits (BB)      Mar  Forecast:   1910K  Previous:    1909K
Industrial Production (BB) Mar  Forecast:    0.4%  Previous:     0.7%
Capacity Utilization (BB)  Mar  Forecast:   76.9%  Previous:    76.6%
Mich Sentiment-Prel. (DM)  Apr  Forecast:    96.5  Previous:     95.8


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

XOM     Exxon Mobil                42.44     +0.54
COP     ConocoPhillips             71.17     +1.17
PBR     Petroleo Brasileiro        34.40     +0.68
PGR     Progressive Corp           88.89     +1.69
MRO     Marathon Oil               33.60     +0.70
AHC     Amerada Hess               64.06     +1.02

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

VCLK    ValueClick Inc             12.48     +1.63
FCEL    Fuelcell Energy            15.17     +1.52
CLZR    Candela Corp               17.01     +1.65
DHB     DHB Industries              9.74     +1.04
REDF    Rediff.com                 14.10     +1.99
MRGE    Merge Technologies         17.53     +2.07

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

YHOO    Yahoo! Inc                 56.21     +7.86
ALL     Allstate Corp              47.73     +1.88
LXK     Lexmark Intl               96.16     +4.36
SHI     Shanghai Petrochemical     53.12     +2.80
INSP    Infospace Inc              45.26     +5.44
KWD     Kellwood Co                43.12     +1.39
POWI    Power Integrations         31.83     +2.13

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

KSS     Kohl's Corp                44.33     -2.52
RSE     The Rouse Co               47.24     -1.44
FDO     Family Dollar Stores       33.55     -1.26
ANF     Abercrombie & Fitch        33.40     -2.70
MLS     The Mills Corp             45.30     -2.22
PRX     Pharmaceuticals Resources  55.06     -6.14
NDN     99 cent Only Stores        21.99     -1.73
CUZ     Cousins Properties         29.13     -1.16
HOTT    Hot Topic Inc              24.46     -1.39

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

FDX     Fedex Corp                 73.82     -1.24
FD      Federated Dept Stores      52.35     -1.24
CHS     Chico's FAS Inc            44.23     -2.05
TEK     Tektronix Inc              32.38     -1.57
ARA     Aracruz Celulose           37.50     -0.86
TLB     Talbots Inc                34.95     -1.02
AEOS    American Eagle Outfitters  26.57     -1.42


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