PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 04-13-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Too Much Good News Watch List: See Note Market Sentiment: Investors Turn Pessimistic ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 04-13-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10381.28 -134.30 10552.61 10361.99 1.79 bln 397/2913 NASDAQ 2030.08 - 35.40 2073.42 2026.20 1.95 bln 718/2478 S&P 100 552.24 - 7.25 561.05 551.33 Totals 1115/5391 S&P 500 1129.44 - 15.76 1147.81 1127.70 W5000 11046.02 -166.80 11237.32 11029.52 SOX 506.25 - 9.00 517.62 505.01 RUS 2000 585.83 - 13.82 601.04 584.34 DJ TRANS 2890.71 - 43.10 2948.19 2884.40 VIX 17.26 + 1.98 17.98 15.29 VXO (VIX-O)17.50 + 2.06 18.06 15.47 VXN 22.23 + 1.86 22.52 20.26 Total Volume 4,097M Total UpVol 739M Total DnVol 3,320M Total Adv 1323 Total Dcl 6085 52wk Highs 308 52wk Lows 121 TRIN 1.22 NAZTRIN 0.88 PUT/CALL 0.92 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Too Much Good News by Jim Brown Analysts would have you think the reason for today's drop was too much good news. Higher than expected Retail Sales and higher than expected Business Inventories were said to have increased fears of higher interest rates and that caused the sell off. Think about it for a moment. With rates at multi-decade lows why would two minor reports suddenly turn the markets upside down? Not hardly. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily Russell 2000 Chart - Daily S&P Chart - Daily The weekly Chain Store Sales rose by +0.8% but the real heat came from the March monthly numbers with a +1.8% gain. This was more than double the expectations of +0.5% to +0.7% and suggest consumers are racing to the store with their tax refund checks. After the stronger than expected number the markets gapped open to strong resistance at 10550/2075/1150 and instantly failed. You will not make me believe that the good news from 8:30-9:30 turned instantly to bad news at 9:40. The component with the largest gain was Building Supply stores which soared +10.6%. The year over year gain was a record +20.8%. You would think this component would be seen as positive for the housing impact. Food service and Electronics both rose over +10%. Again, this was very good news for the economy. The reason for the sell off was given by the talking heads as the news was too good and would lead to rapidly higher interest rates. While I agree the news was good it is only one piece of the puzzle. We have been looking for some sign the consumer was not hibernating and this was it but nobody expects the Fed to come out tomorrow and raise rates. There was also the viewpoint that such good sales would project weaker numbers over the next couple months as the tax refund bubble burst. This is entirely possible but wouldn't that be a reason for the Fed to be patient? Gotcha. Other economic news was the Business Inventories, which rose +0.7% and slightly over the +0.5% estimates. Good news BUT the sales component rose slightly as well and the inventory to sales ratio remained at its record low of 1.33. Good news but far from great. The Richmond Fed also rose to 30 from 19 and employment gained for the second month. Shipments rose +11 points to 30 and the highest level since July-1999 and new orders rose to 28 from 20. Good news but it is only one Fed district. Taking all of the above into context produces the following quandary. Only the Retail Sales number was known at 9:30. The markets had already given back their opening gains and were well into negative territory before the Business Inv and Richmond Fed Survey were known. You can't blame them for the drop. The trend was already in place and strongly negative. Was it earnings that started the slide? Not hardly! Dow component JNJ reported a +20% surge in profits and they beat estimates by +3 cents. Merrill Lynch reported record earnings of $1.22 per share and almost twice the same qtr last year at 67 cents. Revenues were up +27% from Q1-2003 and +25% from 4Q-2003. No bad news there. Something was clearly afoot that triggered the very strong sell programs at the open. Personally I think it was several factors at work. First is option expiration. We have had no material volatility for this expiration period. Volume on Monday was the lightest day of the year and not a normal expiration Monday. Traders came back from the holiday weekend with selling on their mind and analysts were quick to try and place blame. Another reason for the selling was tax related. Traders with substantial profits from the 2003 rally needed to raise cash to pay the taxman on Thursday. It was a very good year for traders and the outlook for stocks over the next six months is not exciting. Time to take profits, raise cash and pay the piper. Last week mutual funds only saw positive cash flows of $2B and this was a quarter end period and the end of the 2003 contribution period. That was not a good sign. The selling today suggested funds were seeing substantial outflows this week. The Russell 2000 literally fell off a cliff and traded -17 points off its opening high and lost nearly twice as much on a percentage basis than the Dow. This is a clear sign of fund withdrawals. Other challenges facing traders were the Intel earnings report tonight and the Bush press conference. Traders heard that a group of hostages had been found dead in Iraq and 40 more were in captivity. April has been a horrible month with 78 coalition soldiers killed so far. Bad news was breaking out all over but I still feel expiration and cash flow were the key. Intel, Bush and the war were just added weight. After the bell Intel disappointed but only barely. Since it had been widely expected to announce soft earnings there was no real after hours impact. Revenue was light and Q2 guidance was light. They said processors, chipsets and motherboard sales were lower than expected but flash memory sales were slightly higher. Unfortunately flash memory has been a profit problem for Intel. Futures fell about -3 points in after hours. No big deal and Intel only fell about -40 cents. Andy Bryant said on a TV interview that they were seeing consolidation of the gains for the last three quarters and were not seeing new economic growth. He said mature markets segments would continue to expand IF IT spending grew and IF the economic recovery continued but not at the rate seen in the prior three quarters. Intel had very respectable earnings at +$1.73B. Unfortunately I think quite a few traders were hoping for an upside surprise. Investors have been used to constantly rising estimates and two quarters of lowered guidance is a disappointment to some traders regardless of how well they really did. The Bush press conference tonight is his first since the war started in Iraq and he is expected to restate his case for being there and announce that 20,000-40,000 troops will not be allowed to return home as scheduled. It is a "press" conference and not a speech so anything will be fair game and he is bound to get some hardball questions on everything and some traders may have wanted to see what pops up before buying the dip. The pictures on TV of burned Americans hanging from bridges has brought the war back home and the 70+ soldiers killed this month is the worst since the war began and the month is only half over. Stock news is booming and it would be very hard to pin any market weakness reasons on the current earnings cycle. Unfortunately we all know the markets discount six months in advance. First Call is now projecting as much as +21% earnings growth for Q1. This is the third consecutive month over 20%. Very strong performance but it is already priced into the market. First Call is also projecting earnings growth for Q2 at +15%, Q3 +16% and Q4 +14%. These levels are strong but far below the last three quarters and far below the current 20% rate. The problem is the calendar. The first quarter last year was a pre-war quarter and earnings were very depressed. Here we are a year later and we are measuring our "booming" results of +21% growth over a quarter that was a pothole in history. Once the war was "over" business started booming and we ramped up into the monster 3Q on the strength of monster tax rebates. Comparisons are going to get a lot tougher as we compete with that 8.5% GDP rate from Q3-2003 with a +4.0% GDP rate in 2004. The weak Intel guidance tonight suggests IT spending going into Q2 is decent but not booming. Ashok Kumar said this week the PC/IT growth for the rest of the year would be hard pressed to pass +4% and much less than the +10% some have suggested. Technically we were due for a test of strength despite the other external factors. For seven straight days the Dow tried to rally and hold over 10500 with no success. This sets up the potential for profit taking as traders tire of trying to push it higher. The Dow pulled back to near support at 10350 with stronger support at 10300. This is not the end of the world but you may be able to see it from here. This drop gives us a potential completed lower high and a drop under 10300 would confirm it. We are in a critical area. We need to rally quickly from here and break out to the 10600 level or the selling volume will quickly escalate. Once the bulls decide there is not going to be an April earnings run they will head for the corral to rest up for fall. The Nasdaq also tried for seven days to break 2075 and could not make it happen. The -35 drop today was serious but not yet severe. The April 2nd gap from 2010 has not even been filled. The 50dma is 2017 and well below our 2030 close. The Nasdaq is in better shape than the Dow but the same criteria applies. A drop back below 1980 would put the bulls out to pasture. The market internals were very bad with decliners beating advancers 4:1 and down volume nearly 5:1 over advancing. New 52-week lows hit 121 and the highest single day level since August 4th. There was definitely a change in sentiment that was not due entirely to rate fears. The interest fear that was blamed for today's selling is not unfounded but it is greatly exaggerated. The Fed Funds futures are still not targeting a rate cut until September and then only a quarter point. Heck the ten-year yields have almost doubled that in the last two weeks. The fear of rate hikes has done far more damage than any real hike will ever do. Talk is cheap and the Fed heads have been doing a lot of it lately. For the rest of the week earnings will continue to flow with 70 S&P companies announcing this week. The next big tech to report is IBM on Thursday and there are a flood of chip stocks reporting tomorrow. Some of the notable reporters for Wednesday include AMD, BAC, AAPL, DHI, DAL, ETN, EXTR, LRCX, MTG, RMBS, SNDK, SGR, TXN and PGR. The problem as I see it is not earnings but cash flow and future expectations. If the lowered guidance from Intel is a symptom of future earnings releases then traders still in the market will lose interest. The cash flow numbers for the week will be critical and there is no second chance. Fund flows after April 15th typically slow to a dribble as summer approaches. Tomorrow we also have the Consumer Price Index and traders will be look for signs of inflation that would accelerate any rate hike schedule. For the short term we are slightly oversold and could rebound at the open but it is still an expiration week and still income tax week. This suggests we could see some more weakness. We also have the increasing war in Iraq and it is finally beginning to drag on the market. The Bush speech tonight could reassure Americans or it could raise the anxiety level. It will be a critical point as the fight escalates. I would be very cautious about entering new positions until this week is out. The conflicting currents are very strong and there are plenty of icebergs around. Thursday is the 92nd anniversary of the Titanic sinking and I would hope it is not an omen for the markets. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Check the site tomorrow for another edition of the PremierInvestor.net Watch List. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Investors Turn Pessimistic - J. Brown After Monday's relief rally from the uneventful long holiday weekend and the strong earnings report from NVLS the markets seemed set to continue the rally into Tuesday. Better than expected earnings numbers from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Merrill Lynch (MER) helped set the tone and solidify expectations for a strong earnings season. Yet everything changed when the March retail sales numbers blew past estimates with a +1.8% increase. Suddenly the focus was on higher interest rates and the fed being forced to move sooner rather than later. Whether it was an excuse to take profits or not the sell-off was market wide. Declining stocks trounced advancers 25 to 4 on the NYSE and 25 to 7 on the NASDAQ. Down volume swallowed up volume 8-to- 1 and 14-to-5 on the NYSE and NASDAQ, respectively. The market decline sent the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 below technical support at their 50-dma. The NASDAQ looks poised to join them below its own 50-dma soon. Selling was very heavy in the gold stocks on strength in the U.S. dollar. The XAU dropped more than 6% and closed below its simple 200-dma. A number of sector indices broke down under their own technical support levels. It was not a good day for stocks or bonds, the latter saw yields shoot higher as investors pulled money out of the bond market. After the close Intel's earnings report didn't help matters. The largest chip maker on the planet missed earnings expectations and revenues were lighter than expected. This is liable to sink the SOX back under its 50-dma and support at the 500 level, which almost guarantees a down day for the NASDAQ. There was some good news after the close with McDonald's (MCD) raising their earnings forecast but the Intel news is likely to overshadow it. Historically April is the best month of the year for the Dow but this is not a good start. The MACD technical indicator on all the major stock indices are hinting at a bearish sell signal in the next few days. I'd be careful about initiating new bullish positions. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 8179 Current : 10381 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10453 50-dma: 10453 200-dma: 9890 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 865 Current : 1129 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1138 50-dma: 1134 200-dma: 1064 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1020 Current : 1472 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1476 50-dma: 1459 200-dma: 1396 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Volatility indices soared higher with double-digit percentage gains in the VIX and VXO as the markets dropped in a broad-based decline. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.26 +1.98 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 17.50 +2.06 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 22.23 +1.86 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.92 856,548 785,025 Equity Only 0.77 659,012 510,532 OEX 0.73 67,691 49,196 QQQ 1.78 80,044 142,423 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 77.1 + 1 Bull Correction NASDAQ-100 54.0 + 1 Bear Correction Dow Indust. 90.0 + 0 Bear Correction S&P 500 76.6 - 1 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 79.0 - 1 Bull Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.40 10-dma: 1.08 21-dma: 1.22 55-dma: 1.19 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 380 674 Decliners 2500 2479 New Highs 50 104 New Lows 63 17 Up Volume 183M 528M Down Vol. 1640M 1379M Total Vol. 1832M 1921M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/06/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 There isn't much change to report in the Commercial traders' positions. They remain net short of the large S&P futures contracts. Small traders are virtually unchanged as well. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/16/04 454,635 449,505 5,130 0.6% 03/23/04 401,456 418,732 (17,273) (2.1%) 03/30/04 407,987 420,624 (12,673) (1.5%) 04/06/04 409,429 419,471 (10,042) (1.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 159,054 115,023 44,031 25.3% 03/23/04 130,648 89,943 40,705 18.5% 03/30/04 130,112 81,937 48,175 22.7% 04/06/04 130,262 80,174 50,088 23.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 The S&P e-minis are seeing a bit more action with commercials increasing their short by 20K. In contrast the small trader has upped their longs, which is par for the course. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/16/04 472,809 574,241 (101,432) ( 9.7%) 03/23/04 268,647 294,930 (26,283) ( 4.7%) 03/30/04 265,492 305,797 (40,305) ( 7.1%) 04/06/04 270,904 328,862 (57,958) ( 9.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 192,136 96,691 95,445 33.0% 03/23/04 131,879 59,210 72,669 38.0% 03/30/04 123,494 59,550 63,944 35.0% 04/06/04 148,737 46,235 102,502 52.6% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Hmm.... commercial traders have erased the one-week surge in short contracts flipping them back to net long for the NASDAQ. Meanwhile small traders are reducing longs and upping their shorts. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 68,285 54,899 13,386 10.9% 03/23/04 52,014 34,017 17,997 20.9% 03/30/04 52,749 67,967 (15,218) (12.6%) 04/06/04 54,862 34,762 20,100 22.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 13,386 - 03/16/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 27,859 18,333 9,526 20.6% 03/23/04 9,884 12,887 (3,003) (13.2%) 03/30/04 8,928 16,551 (7,623) (30.0%) 04/06/04 7,971 20,721 (12,750) (44.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Very little change in commercial traders' positions for the Dow futures. Small traders have turned a bit more negative. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 32,317 17,514 14,803 29.7% 03/23/04 23,048 22,119 929 2.1% 03/30/04 23,642 22,180 1,462 3.2% 04/06/04 23,101 22,108 993 2.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/16/04 10,002 20,970 (10,968) (35.4%) 03/23/04 8,344 6,734 1,610 10.7% 03/30/04 7,020 6,711 309 2.3% 04/06/04 7,316 8,085 (769) (5.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 04-13-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: None Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= None ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change MTG MGIC Investments 67.51 +0.73 RDN Radian Group 45.86 +1.18 FL Foot Locker Inc 26.40 +1.03 DLX Deluxe Corp 41.34 +0.52 LF Leapfrog Enterprises 22.45 +1.58 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- VISG Viisage Technologies 13.25 +2.55 ICPT Intercept Inc 14.88 +1.78 NSTK Nastech Pharmaceuticals 14.70 +1.20 IDSY I.D.Systems 9.40 +1.20 MACE Mace Security Intl 10.15 +2.15 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- TSO Tesoro Petroleum Corp 22.25 +2.48 TSAI Transaction Sys Architecs 24.74 +2.20 GSOF Group 1 Software Inc 22.68 +6.19 LWAY Lifeway Foods Inc 27.49 +3.36 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AVE Aventis 74.66 -2.57 WFC Wells Fargo & Co 55.65 -1.38 LEH Lehman Brothers 77.22 -3.60 AU Anglogold Ltd 37.30 -2.77 CF Charter One Financial 34.59 -1.41 HCBK Hudson City Bancorp 34.75 -1.66 FCX Freeport Mcmoran 35.66 -2.17 BPOP Popular Inc 42.53 -1.25 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- ABX Barrick Gold Corp 22.04 -1.57 MCO Moody's Corp 67.30 -1.49 VIP Vimpel Communication 103.65 -5.15 CBH Commerce Bancorp 62.58 -3.97 CME Chicago Mercantile Exchg 105.33 -4.69 MOGN MGI Pharma 62.94 -1.69 DADE Dade Behring Holdings 45.65 -1.83 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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