PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 04-14-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Markets Turn Choppy Watch List: BKS, MWD, ALVR, DLTR Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) =============================================================== MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) =============================================================== 04-14-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10377.95 - 3.33 10415.28 10322.94 1.82 bln 680/2206 NASDAQ 2024.85 - 5.23 2040.15 2013.98 1.82 bln 1217/1903 S&P 100 551.88 - 0.36 553.69 548.72 Totals 1897/4109 S&P 500 1128.17 - 1.27 1132.52 1122.15 RUS 2000 582.02 - 3.81 588.01 578.88 DJ TRANS 2909.35 + 18.64 2923.95 2881.50 VIX 15.62 - 1.64 17.71 15.60 VXO 17.30 - 0.20 18.30 16.66 VXN 21.59 - 0.64 22.83 21.59 Total Volume 4,137M Total UpVol 1,532M Total DnVol 2,496M 52wk Highs 111 52wk Lows 233 TRIN 0.62 PUT/CALL 0.82 =============================================================== =========== Market Wrap =========== Markets Turn Choppy by James Brown U.S. stocks markets turned in a mixed session as investors couldn't decide which to focus on: interest rate fears or stronger corporate profits. The CPI numbers this morning confirmed that inflation is on the rise, which means the Fed will likely act sooner rather than later. Earnings continue to come in strong despite a few high profile misses. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar spiked higher against the euro before fading but jumped strongly against the yen. This sent gold to a $7.20 loss closing at $400.50 an ounce. The inflationary CPI data extended the flight from bonds. Crude oil fell 49 cents to $36.72 a barrel but that didn't stop retail gasoline prices from hitting yet another all-time high. Global markets were mostly lower. The Japanese NIKKEI fell 29 points to 12,098 but the Chinese Hang Seng plummeted 361 points to 12,669 on currency and interest rate concerns. European stocks didn't fare much better. The English FTSE lost 30 points to 4485. The French CAC dropped 43 points to 3731 while the German DAX fell 58 points to 4012. U.S. indices ended the day close to unchanged with minor losses but that hardly tells the whole story. U.S. stocks fell sharply at the open but within 10 to 15 minutes traders bought the dip and by lunchtime they were at their highs for the session. Unfortunately the afternoon turned into a slow drift lower before a rebound in the last half hour recouped most of the market's losses. Market internals paint a much more bearish picture with declining stocks whipping advancing issues 3-to-1 on the NYSE and 19 to 12 on the NASDAQ. Down volume outnumbered up volume 2-to-1 on the NYSE and 10 to 7 on the NASDAQ. Overall volume was much improved over Monday's anemic levels. Oddly enough the volatility index, a measure of investor fear, almost completely erased yesterday's gains. The same could not be said for the VXO and the VXN volatility gauges. Yesterday's decline was pretty discouraging as numerous indices including the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 broke their simple 50-dma's. Adding to the negative technical picture are the bearish MACD readings on all three major indices. However, there is hope that the recent weakness may just be a bull flag but that could just be the optimist in me striving to come out. Fortunately, the super strong earnings reports after the bell tonight should do a lot to boost investor confidence and we may see a continuation of this afternoon's rebound tomorrow. Chart of the Dow Industrials: Chart of the NASDAQ Composite: Chart of the S&P 500 Index: One might have expected Intel (INTC) to be the Dow's biggest loser today given its disappointing earnings report last night but shares of INTC were only down 30 cents and managed to hold support at the $27.00 level. Although bears should take heart in noting the strong overhead resistance at its 40-dma and its MACD is weakening and is about to turn into a sell signal. The biggest drag on the Dow happened to be McDonald's (MCD). The stock lost 4.49% and broke support at its 50-dma after announcing strong same-store sales growth and raised their Q1 earnings estimates to 40 cents, 3 cents better than analysts' estimates. Yup, you read that right. MCD traded down on good news. Investors ignored the higher profit forecasts and focused on same-store sales numbers that were hurt by a 2.9% drop in the European comparable store sales even though U.S. same-store sales jumped nearly 10% in March. Keeping rate hike fears in the spotlight was the inflationary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March. Economists were expecting a jump of 0.3% but the Labor Department reported a rise of 0.5%. Furthermore the core rate of inflation, minus food and energy prices, soared 0.4%. This was strongly above the expected 0.2% rise and marked the largest jump in the core rate since November 2001. Overall the CPI hit its fourth monthly increase in a row. There has been a lot of discussion over the last few months about the rising rate of inflation even though the government appeared to ignore it. The rising price of commodities including metals like copper and rolled steel have hit multi-year highs. Most businesses have managed to pass along these higher costs to the consumer. Kimberly Clark (KMB) mentioned the need to raise prices a couple of days ago to offset higher raw materials. Of course this really isn't that big of a surprise. An expanding economy increases demand and thus prices rise. It's the Federal Reserve's job to keep growth (and inflation) in check before it gets out of hand. Yesterday's super strong March retail sales and today's CPI figures have nearly guaranteed a rate hike much sooner than previously expected. Gone are the estimates for the Fed to wait until 2005. Instead the market is pricing in a 46% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points by June and has already priced in a 100% chance of a 1/4-point hike by August. That's why interest-rate sensitive stocks (and bonds) are getting hit so hard. Speaking of hikes Delta Airlines (DAL) needs to be able to raise their ticket prices but increasing competition won't allow it. DAL is the third largest airline in the U.S. and the company has slowly been prepping investors for the worst with two earnings warnings over the last quarter. Those turned out to be too generous. The airliner lost $387 million in the first quarter or $3.12 per share. This was 10 cents worse than expected as revenues of $3.29 billion came in under estimates. Rising fuel costs due to the sharp climb in crude oil has been a profit sponge for the entire industry but DAL is also suffering from labor costs. They're asking their pilots to take a 30% pay cut but the pilots union is only offering a 9% cut and they're willing to give up a 4.5% pay raise this coming May. Analysts don't think that's going to be enough. The airline is saddled with billions in debt and is currently burning about $165 million in cash a month. It has enough cash to last it the next year before it may have to consider bankruptcy. Investors were also unhappy to hear Take-Two Interactive's (TTWO) earnings warning this morning. Estimates had been for a profit of 33 cents a share based on revenues in the $220 million range. The company now expects earnings (due out in May) to be a loss of 15 cents per share with revenues closer to $170 million. The company is blaming poor sales (obviously) and delayed game releases. TTWO's CEO Jeff Lapin said it was game over for him and resigned. The stock gapped down with an early 16% loss but ended the day at $31.92, down 9%. So enough with all the bad news let's hear the good news! Dow component DuPont (DD), who recently announced a job cut for 3,500 employees, rose 2.99% to $45.00 after pre-announcing stronger earnings this morning. DD raised its March earnings guidance from 65-to-75 cents a share to 95 cents a share. Analysts' estimates had been pegged at 73 cents. The company's press release said that "The improved results reflect a strong quarter for its Agriculture & Nutrition segment and higher than expected volumes across most businesses." Earnings are expected on April 27th. Another cyclical/commodity related company Georgia-Pacific (GP) pre-announced stronger earnings this morning as well. The housing boom has helped boost lumber prices close to 50% higher from a year ago levels. GP now expects earnings to be 60 cents per share, excluding a 6-cent charge, compared to estimate for 48 cents. Yet the good news doesn't stop there. The real fireworks began after the closing bell. Intel's rival Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported a blow out quarter! A big surge in demand for its flash memory combined with cost cutting and higher average selling prices helped AMD report profits of $45.1 million (12 cents per share) versus a loss of $146.2 million (-42 cents) a year ago. Analysts were expecting AMD to report just 3 cents per share. Revenues came in at $1.24 billion topping estimates. Unfortunately, AMD's Q2 guidance was rather lackluster. Not so for Apple Computer (AAPL)! AAPL is forecasting its Q3 (June quarter) will come in at 12 to 13 cents per share with revenue surging to $1.93 billion compared to analyst estimates at 9 cents and $1.83 billion. This news followed their stunning earnings report after the bell tonight. AAPL said its March quarter revenues vaulted 29% to $1.91 billion, well above the average estimates at $1.81 billion. Profits were $53 million (14 cents) not counting a $7 million restructuring charge compared to last year's March quarter profit of $14 million. Earnings estimates had been for AAPL to hit 10 cents per share. Driving the quarter was the iPod and the iPod mini. While we can cheer for AAPL's success its earnings report is rarely a market mover. The same can't be said for Texas Instruments (TXN). The chipmaker reported earnings that were inline at 21 cents per share but revenues surged almost 34% to $2.94 billion compared to average estimates of $2.89 billion. The 21-cent profit ($367 million) is a major improvement over last year's 7-cent performance. The jump in profits were boosted by a rise in gross margins from 43.1% to 45% and lead to TXN's strongest growth in a decade. Furthermore the company guided earnings for the current quarter in the 23 to 26 cent range compared to consensus estimates of 23 cents. TXN expects revenues to fall between $3.08 and $3.325 billion, which is also above estimates. Hopefully this triple-shot of positive earnings reports can jump- start the bulls tomorrow morning and this afternoon's last hour rebound can get some follow through. The only thing in our path would be a negative earnings report from Citigroup (C) or a bearish reading from New York Empire State index tomorrow morning. I don't think we have to worry about the NY Empire index since the most recent round of economic reports have been so strong. Dow component Citigroup is important because it's one of the biggest financial conglomerates on the planet but once again with the economy recovering earnings should be strong. Estimates for C are 94 cents a share. Thursday also brings the weekly initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed index but the same argument applies to both. Recent economic readings have been positive and these shouldn't be any different. The real headliner tomorrow will be earnings from International Business Machines (IBM) after the closing bell. IBM is such a monstrous tech company with operations in semiconductors, hardware (servers & laptops), and consulting that it alone can be used as a proxy for the technology sector(s). IBM's guidance for the next quarter can set the tone for tech stocks. Estimates for Big Blue are 93 cents a share. Overall I agree with Jim's caution yesterday. This is options expiration week and it's liable to remain volatile while Wall Street sorts out its concerns over interest rates. A quarter point rate hike isn't going to kill the bull market or the recovery but right now traders are over reacting. Hopefully the theme of stronger corporate profits can once again retake investors focus but if we don't bounce soon I fear this April may not live up to its historical track record. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Barnes & Noble - BKS - close: 30.50 change: -0.57 WHAT TO WATCH: Hit lower with the rest of the Retail sector over the past couple days, BKS broke key support near $31 and is fast approaching its 200-dma at $29.91. Use a break below the 200-dma to trigger bearish entries, targeting a drop to $28 and then stronger support near $26. --- Morgan Stanley - MWD - close: 53.35 change: -1.07 WHAT TO WATCH: The prospects for rising rates did not sit well with the Brokerage stocks on Tuesday, with the XBD index being hit for a 2.75% decline. MWD fared even worse, losing nearly 3.5% on above average volume, falling close to the 200-dma. With the break of that average today, the stock looks well on its way towards its PnF price target of $47. Consider entries on either a failed bounce below $56 or on a break of today's low. --- Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. - BRL - close: 45.38 change: -0.70 WHAT TO WATCH: After several weeks of holding support at $46, BRL finally broke down today on above average volume. The PnF chart was already on a Sell signal with a target of $38 and today's drop breaks the bullish support line. Use a trigger under today's low and target a drop first to $42 support and then stronger support at $38. --- Alvarion Ltd. - ALVR - close: 11.76 change: -0.29 WHAT TO WATCH: It was just Monday that we highlighted ALVR as a potential breakdown candidate below $12 and yesterday's broad market weakness certainly got things moving in the right direction. ALVR traded a low of $11.59 before rebounding at the end of the day to just barely hold onto support at $12. Today saw more weakness as the stock tested yesterday's lows again, this time setting a multi-month closing low. A break below yesterday's low should solidify what looks like a strengthening downward trend. Target a drop to the $10 level, just above the 200-dma. --- Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. - DLTR - close: 28.95 change: -0.09 WHAT TO WATCH: Strong Retail Sales yesterday did little to help shares of DLTR, as the stock headed sharply lower on the prospects of rising interest rates. More inflationary data this morning didn't help either, and DLTR lost a bit more ground, moving closer to major support at $28. Use an entry trigger below that level and then target a drop to next strong support at $24. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== PWR $6.63 - After its sharp drop from the February highs, PWR found support near $6.50 for a rebound attempt. That bounce rolled over right at the 20-dma and the market weakness of the past couple days has pushed the stock right back to that $6.50 level. Use a trigger under $6.50 and target a drop to next support near $5.00. DHI $30.91 - Fears of rising rates have hit the Housing stocks pretty hard over the past couple days, and that has completed DHI's drop back to strong support at $30. That initial test generated a pretty strong rebound and this looks like the spot for aggressive bulls to take a shot at a bullish play on the stock. Target a rally back to the $33.50-34.00 area. SOV $19.96 - We looked at SOV last week when the stock was trying to rebound from its 200-dma, but that attempt has clearly failed in the past two days and it looks like the stock is headed lower. With yesterday's break of that average, we can now look for a failed rebound near $20.50 to provide favorable bearish entries. Target a drop down to the $28.50 support level. ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change MTG MGIC Investments Corp 70.11 +2.60 RDN Radian Group 47.63 +1.77 PMI PMI Group Inc 43.28 +2.26 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- None --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- None ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- AVE Aventis 74.70 +0.04 WFC Wells Fargo & Co New 55.23 -0.42 PHG Koniklijke Philips Elec 28.28 -0.18 MER Merrill Lynch & Co 57.74 -0.87 EXC Exelon Corporation 65.65 -0.42 LEH Lehman Bros Hldg Inc 76.54 -0.68 STT State Street Corp 49.58 -2.56 NVO Novo Nordisk A/S 45.12 -0.73 GDW Golden West Financial 102.07 -3.31 ABX Barrick Gold Corp 21.43 -0.61 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- CSCO Cisco Systems Inc 23.31 -0.31 DIS Walt Disney Co 24.92 -0.08 TEVA TEVA Pharm Ind 62.39 -0.41 COST Costco Wholesale Corp 37.59 +0.43 K Kellogg Co 40.18 +0.02 PCG PG&E Corp Holdings Co 28.29 -0.16 LTD Limited Brands Inc 19.94 -0.12 GILD Gilead Sciences Inc 56.11 +0.55 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 04-14-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: None Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks) New Bearish Plays: UNA Closed Bullish Plays: FLIR High Risk/Reward New Bearish Plays: IMAX ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== None ================================================================== Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Unova, Inc. - UNA - close: 20.02 change: -1.06 stop: 21.75 Company Description: UNOVA, Inc. and its subsidiaries function as an industrial technologies company providing global customers with solutions to enhance efficiency and productivity. UNA is a global supplier of mobile computing and wireless network products for non-office applications and for manufacturing systems technologies primarily for the automotive and aerospace industries. The company has three segments: Automated Data Systems, Integrated Production Systems and Advanced Manufacturing Equipment. Why we like it: Ever since dropping back from its January highs, UNA has been trying to build a new base from which it can head higher. It was starting to look like the bulls might just gain the upper hand, as the stock had been building a pattern of higher lows over the past couple months. But that encouraging pattern was soundly smashed today, as the stock crashed through the rising trendline on strong volume, falling to test the lows from early February. That $19.50 support is reinforced by the 200-dma ($19.32), but when it gives way, it looks like UNA has a long ways to fall. The PnF chart has been bearish for some time now, and with its $12 bearish price target, the prospects do not look good for the bulls. Looking at the daily chart, there isn't much in the way of support below the 200-dma until the stock reaches the $16 level and it isn't out of the question that we could see the stock continue to fall to stronger support near $14. Until UNA breaks the 200-dma though, it is still technically in a consolidation pattern, so we're going to use a trigger at $19.25. Aggressive traders will want to enter on the initial break, while a more conservative approach will be to target entries on a subsequent failed rebound below $20.50, the site of the violated trendline that connects the lows of the past couple months. Due to the sharp drop of the past two days, we need to use a fairly wide stop, but we don't want to give it too much room. The $21.75 level should work for a stop, as it is just over yesterday's intraday high, as well as the 50-dma ($21.48). We'll initially target a drop to $16, with an outside chance for a drop down to that $14 support. UNA has not announced a date for their earnings report, but since the last one was on February 12th, we can estimate early to mid-May as a likely timeframe. Annotated Chart of UNA: Picked on April 14th at $20.02 Change since picked +0.00 Earnings Date 2/12/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 505 K ============ Closed Plays ============ Closed Bullish Plays -------------------- FLIR Systems - FLIR - close: 39.25 change: -0.75 stop: 38.90 Everything was looking so good for our FLIR play on Monday, as the stock broke out through strong resistance on very heavy volume. Unfortunately, Tuesday's broad market weakness took all those gains away, again on heavy volume. We considered dropping the play yesterday on that reversal, but decided to give the stock the opportunity to bounce from its 10-dma ($39.64). We got our answer today, as FLIR sliced right through that average, pushing right down to the $39 level. Clearly the breakout has failed and rather than wait around for our stop to be hit, we're going to take an early exit and close the play for a small loss tonight. Picked on April 11th at $39.75 Change since picked -0.50 Earnings Date 2/04/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 325 K ================================================================== High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- IMAX Corp. - IMAX - close: 5.25 change: -0.25 stop: 6.05 Company Description: IMAX Corporation is an entertainment technology company specializing in large-format film images, three-dimensional (3-D) film presentations and large-format post production. As of December 31, 2002, the Company had three business segments: IMAX Systems, Films and Other. The IMAX Systems segment designs, manufactures, sells or leases and maintains IMAX theater projection and sound systems for giant-screen, 15-perforation film frame, 70-millimeter format (15/70-format) theaters based on proprietary and patented technology. The Films segment is engaged in the production, post-production, digital re-mastering and distribution of 15/70-format films. The Other segment includes the Company's camera rentals and theater operations. As of December 31, 2002, IMAX had 232 theaters operating in more than 30 countries. Of these 232 theaters, 112 of them are located in institutional locations and 120 in commercial locations. Why we like it: While IMAX may provide the most immersive movie experience on the market, investors in the stock over the past several months must think they bought tickets to a horror show. After topping out just over $10, the stock turned down in early November and it has been a bearish affair ever since. IMAX has been posting a persistent chain of lower highs and lower lows for months now and that trend only picked up steam today, with a high volume break under the $5.50 level, which is the site of the 62% retracement of the rally from February through November of last year. The PnF chart shows a truly horrifying view for investors in the stock, as it is on a strong Sell signal, with a bearish price target of $0.50. Obviously that's a long ways down there and too distant a target for us to shoot for during the duration of this play. But we can also see on the PnF chart that the bullish support line at $4.00 lines up nicely with the next solid support near $4.00 on the daily chart. There's really no point in using a trigger for this play, as there's no significant unbroken near-term support level at which to place such a trigger. An oversold bounce back to the $5.50- 5.75 area would make for the best entries into the play, especially with our initial stop placed at $6.05, just over the top of the most recent failed rally. Realistically, the 10-dma ($5.71) should provide solid resistance, and that average is reinforced by the 20-dma at $5.84. Traders that prefer to enter on further weakness can use a break below today's $5.16 low as a trigger for entry. There's some possible support near the $4.50 level, but it probably isn't strong enough to stop the downtrend. We'll target a move down to $4.00, while at the same time keeping an eye out for a more substantial decline. Annotated Chart of IMAX: Picked on April 14th at $5.25 Change since picked +0.00 Earnings Date N/A Average Daily Volume = 645 K ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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