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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 04/22/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 04-22-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Size Matters
Market Sentiment: Fearless!
Watch List:       CHKP, TLAB, PETM, SON


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      04-22-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10461.20 +143.90 10496.61 10292.28 2.21 bln 2437/ 834
NASDAQ   2032.91 + 37.30  2035.39  1991.47 2.14 bln 2105/1061
S&P 100   555.24 +  6.04   556.76   547.24   Totals 4542/1895
S&P 500  1139.93 + 15.84  1142.77  1121.92
W5000   11154.54 +160.20 11174.70 10978.22
SOX       480.48 +  1.70   485.81   468.09
RUS 2000  593.24 + 10.02   593.67   582.28
DJ TRANS 3006.96 + 52.50  3007.01  2948.54
VIX        14.61 -  0.99    15.98    13.86
VXO (VIX-O)14.59 -  1.07    16.36    14.17
VXN        21.35 -  1.47    22.94    20.94
Total Volume 4,748M
Total UpVol  3,604M
Total DnVol  1,107M
Total Adv  5101
Total Dcl  2198
52wk Highs  337
52wk Lows   152
NasTRIN    0.78
TRIN       0.76
PUT/CALL   0.63
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Size Matters
by Jim Brown

It appears that size and quality does matter when it comes to
earnings and Thursday was a banner day for quality results.
Good news was breaking out all over and analysts were pounding
the table about the new bull market. Is it a new bull market
or just a lot of bull?

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Wilshire-5000 Chart - Daily



According to market reporters earnings suddenly rocketed to
the forefront and considering the economics today it was
about time. Jobless Claims fell slightly to 353,000 but that
marks the second week over the 350K level. That level is used
as a benchmark for adding or deleting real jobs from the
market. The prior week was revised up to 362K. Analysts are
still blaming the seasonal adjustments for Easter as the
reason for the jump.

The March PPI surprised to the upside with a +0.5% jump and
well over estimates of +0.2%. Core prices rose at a slower
rate of +0.2% for those of you that don't use food or energy.
A +1.5% jump in food prices was the main reason for the
headline bounce. For the first quarter finished goods have
already risen +5.1% and although much of that was due to
energy it is still a warning sign for the Fed that inflation
is knocking on the door.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) dropped
to 17 in March from 47 in February. This was the seventh
consecutive month of expansion but the lowest month since
October. The +308,000 jobs created in March added +0.09 to
the headline number and it was only the fourth positive
contribution by employment in the last four years. The CFNAI
is seen as confirmation that the economy is still growing but
the drop in the expansion rate is troubling. If rates rise
soon the housing sector will slow and that could push the
numbers back into negative territory very quickly.

By far the best report of the day was the Monthly Mass Layoffs
which showed that there were only 920 mass layoffs in March
that impacted 92,554 workers. This the second consecutive
month under 100,000 and bodes very well for the coming Jobs
report. If jobless claims remain low as well as layoffs then
we can assume companies have reached their minimum level of
employment and could be ramping up again soon. Manufacturing
still accounted for the largest number of layoffs with one
third of the total. Strong earnings as we have been seeing
this week would also make companies more comfortable about
maintaining payrolls and adding additional workers.

According to the bobble head reporters on stock TV economics
were not the motivating force today. According to them the
earnings picture finally took the lead and positive comments
from numerous companies combined together to produce a
rebound back to a two week high. Rate fears that were blamed
for the Tuesday decline were forgotten and entire two day
hiccup was erased.

When we discuss these things you should always remember that
nearly 50% of our daily trading is done by computer programs
launched by funds and institutions. This is up from a little
over 20% just a couple years ago. These programs come and
go daily with some buying and some selling. As long as they
are balanced there is no material impact to the market. When
we suddenly get several large programs that move in the same
direction without any offsetting activity we get a major
market event.

This is what happened on Tuesday and again today. On Tuesday
at approximately 2:30 we saw several sell programs triggered
and the selling was blamed on Greenspan comments. With Alan
Greenspan scheduled to speak again the next morning nobody
was ready to buy the dip. More sell stops were hit and the
drop accelerated. The selling was not especially heavy for
the entire day, only for the duration of the sell programs.
Volume was only moderate at 4.2B shares across all markets.
The market had been moving higher that morning but fear of
Greenspan was prompting some underlying profit taking all
day. The sell programs just accelerated the event. It
was not a watershed day. It was simply a reaction event made
worse by the lack of buyers. Traders were concerned it would
carry over into Wednesday but Greenspan said nothing new and
it turned into a false alarm.

The exact reverse occurred today. The market opened down and
we bounced along the 10300 level for about an hour. At 10:30
a strong buy program triggered taking us to new highs for
the day. Once those highs were made new programs appeared
and we raced to just over the 10400 level where we rested
for a couple hours. Shorts without stops were caught off
guard and were forced to bite the bullet in increasing
numbers when there was no immediate sell off. At 1:25 those
shorts hoping for an end of day retracement were surprised
when another strong buy program appeared to push us within
13 points of 10500. Short covering held us there and we
closed with little or no selling.

Dow Chart - 30 min


Advance-decline Chart  (programs)



Despite the numbers on the board it was not a blowout. The
volume was strong at 4.8B shares across the board but up
volume was only 3:1 over down volume. Advancers only beat
decliners by little more than 2:1. It was simply a day where
the buy programs outnumbered sell programs and it was helped
by positive earnings chatter. On the chart above you can see
the marked moves where large programs pushed the indexes
around. A plus/minus change in the A/D line of 1000 issues
in a single 30 min period in the middle of the day is not
created by retail buying and selling.

Advance-decline - Chart (normal)




I chose today to elaborate on the program activity because
the TV announcers were tripping all over themselves trying
to explain how the bullish earnings news had prompted this
massive buying. Surprise, the news today was no different
than the news on any other day this week. The rate picture
is still the same. In fact Bernanke spoke today and said
the Fed was in policy transition mode, indicating the Fed
was preparing to raise rates. Nobody blinked. Wayne Angel,
a prior Fed governor, was on TV saying he thought +50 points
in May would be the right move. Nobody blinked. There were
multiple terror events around the world and a train wreck
in Korea potentially killing 3000 people and the markets
did not blink. The markets go up and down based on money
flows into funds and asset allocation by major institutions.
Retail traders simply go along for the ride.

Those pulling the trigger on those buy programs probably
did so because of the long term outlook as earnings continue
to beat expectations. That part is true. If a fund is sitting
on a large pile of cash and the Tuesday crash and Wednesday
speech failed to break support at 10300 then why not take
advantage of the best buying opportunity over the last month?
It does not even take guts or conviction. Index funds have
to invest the money and the best market timing they can do
is buy the dips whenever possible. Does that mean the rally
was false? Does it mean we are not going to see any summer
doldrums? No to both questions. It means nothing except some
shorts got squeezed. You cannot make market decisions based
on single day events. Granted it was a bullish event but it
was just one day.

It was a very bullish day for sentiment. Company after company
raised guidance and made glowing statements about the future.
Comments from Caterpillar were repeated almost hourly day.
The company CEO said "it appears the world's economy will
have one of the strongest, broadest recoveries in years."
CAT raised its profit outlook to +65% to +70% growth from the
prior forecast of +40%. That was just an example of similar
comments from dozens of companies.

Thursday was the heaviest earnings schedule for the April
cycle with 70 S&P 500 companies reporting along with hundreds
of others. After the close we got several high profile reports
including MSFT, AMZN, AMGN, BRCM, GLW, MCHP, XLNX and PSFT.

Microsoft blew away estimates of 28 cents with profits of
34 cents and Microsoft was uncharacteristically bullish in
its comments. CFO John Connors said 2004 has been a great
year and we see a very bright future for the company and
its shareholders. It did not announce plans for its $56B
in cash but did say it will announce some news before the
companies analyst meeting in July. Many expect a larger
dividend, possibly a one time cash disbursement and some
acquisition plans. The resolution of numerous antitrust
cases recently has reduced the need to hoard cash. The
company said it saw broad based demand and solid execution
across all segments. They said demand increased in servers,
PCs and in overall technology spending. The MSN division
also returned to profit status and Xbox sales rose +30%.
Life is good at Microsoft today. The stock jumped nearly
$2 in after hours trading. They also raised estimates for
the current quarter. They raised estimates for PC growth
for the rest of the year but lowered estimates for 2005.

Amazon posted its third straight quarterly profit with
earnings of 26 cents compared to a loss of -3 cents in the
same quarter last year. Revenue jumped +41%. Amazon beat
analyst estimates but the stock fell after the news. AMZN
still forecasts a profit for the coming quarter but the
guidance left some confused and suggested earnings could
decline on lower margins. Considering AMZN has stretched
its profits to quarters where it has always had losses and
sales are continuing to increase it is evident the business
model is working well and the short term volatility should
pass. Amazon is getting into the search engine business
and keyword click sales. That is a pure profit effort and
their billions of page views will capitalize on that space.

Broadcom beat the street by two cents but the good news was
the upgraded guidance. BRCM said earnings in the current
quarter should increase by +10%. They said bookings had been
very strong into April and they were seeing broad increases
in demand. They bragged about the strength in the broadband
market and claimed it was their fastest growing segment.

XLNX, another chipmaker posted earnings of 36 cents against
estimates of 25 cents and raised guidance going forward.
This is getting to be a repeating pattern. Those beating
are leading the pack and raising estimates while a few
stragglers are still catching up. It is a stock by stock
problem related to product mix but the chip sector is
definitely improving. Other chips reporting tonight included
IDTI +1, MCHP +2, TQNT +1, VTSS inline, MCRL inline, MSCC
+1.

Corning beat estimates of five cents with an eight-cent
gain and raised guidance. They said demand for liquid crystal
display panels remained very strong. They did say they did
not see telecom recovering until 2005. They said LCD sales
grew +16% for the quarter and demand was growing faster than
expected.

These are just some of the positive reports seen today but
the overall picture continues to be strong. American Express
said travel fees rose +23% for the quarter as Americans
suddenly increased their rate of travel. Sabre raised their
estimates as well saying bookings were climbing quickly.
Starwood Hotels said business travel had increased faster
than their expectations in just the last couple months.
Credit card companies are posting strong profits and saying
debtors are making payments faster and weak credits are
decreasing. Maytag said orders were increasing to the point
where materials shortages were becoming a problem. Norfolk
Southern said rail shipments were growing strongly. UPS
said package growth across all segments was strong with
international shipments especially strong. Ryland Homes
said new orders were the highest in company history at
nearly 5,000 homes. They also closed a record 3,000+ homes
in the first quarter. The strength in the home marketplace
bodes well for the entire economy as we move into the
spring buying season.

Yes, earnings are great, the economy is growing and everyone
has accepted that rate hikes are on the way. What is wrong
with this picture? Nothing and that scares me. Bad things
tend to happen when all the news is good. The Dow ran back
to begin testing its April resistance and that test could
come as early as tomorrow. 10550 has been tested five times
in April and failed each time. A breakout there could attract
more buyers who were planning on waiting out the summer
doldrums.

The Nasdaq has the same resistance hurdle at 2070 and while
it had a strong +37 point run today it is still well below
that level. The tech news after the bell has failed to really
juice the futures with the S&P +3 and the Nasdaq +12. Not big
numbers considering the number of positive surprises.

The problem we have to face is not something we can point
to and wait for the announcement. It is not terror, rates
or rising economy. It is expectations. All the good news is
already priced into the market and investors will have to
decide if they want to buy at the highs while knowing that
future quarters will not be this strong. Stranger things
have happened and we will have to wait out the rest of April
to see if that occurs. Today was the largest day of the
cycle and we will start to see shorter list of earnings
schedules beginning next week. Most of the big guys have
already reported and the sterling numbers normally decline
from here as the lower quality companies report later in
the cycle.

For Friday I would be very cautious about buying any bounce
unless 10550/2070 is broken. With weekend event risk ahead
the odds are slim we are going to make that break tomorrow.
If it is going to happen I would bet on a Monday attempt.
I would instead look at buying any dip in anticipation of
any potential gains next week. We are far from out of the
woods but that may be daylight just up ahead. Is it a new
bull market or just a lot of bull? We will know soon.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Fearless!
 - J. Brown

Stocks soared on Thursday when for one brief moment investors
ignored their interest rate fears, the violence in Iraq and
concerns over the Presidential election to focus on the trainload
of positive earnings reports.  Okay, I may be exaggerating a bit
but Alan's soothing words on Wednesday appeared to do the job or
investors finally came to their senses and realized that a bump
or two in interest rates wouldn't kill the economy.

It didn't hurt to have outstanding profit numbers from the likes
of Caterpillar (CAT), a Dow-component, and EBAY.  The profits
continued to soar with a strong report from MSFT and AMZN after
the close, although AMZN was trading lower on the news.  Normally
we tend to see profit taking after a big move like today and
facing the weekend it wouldn't surprise us a bit to see traders
taking money off the table since there is always an event risk of
some new terrorist attack.  However, MSFT's news could keep the
tech sector in the green and potentially push the NASDAQ toward
resistance at 2050-2075.

Market internals were very bullish.  Advancing stocks tackled
decliners 22 to 6 on the NYSE and 2 to 1 on the NASDAQ.  Up
volume swamped down volume 17 to 5 on the NYSE and 3 to 1 on the
NASDAQ.  Total volume was very strong.  The volatility indices
collapsed back toward their lows indicating almost zero investor
fear!


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8263
Current     : 10461

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10409
 50-dma: 10433
200-dma:  9935



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  886
Current     : 1139

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1132
 50-dma: 1133
200-dma: 1069



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1072
Current     : 1485

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1468
 50-dma: 1456
200-dma: 1404


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Volatility has completely collapses.  Alan Greenspan has helped
soothed the markets' fears over rates and now investors can
focus on earnings.

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.61 -0.99
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.65 -1.01
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.35 -1.47

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.63        977,611       617,591
Equity Only    0.54        800,523       430,109
OEX            1.05         25,119        26,499
QQQ            3.18         31,920       101,593


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          77.8    - 1     Bull Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    56.0    + 2     Bear Correction
Dow Indust.   83.3    - 7     Bear CONFIRMED
S&P 500       75.4    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       77.0    - 2     Bull Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

! Sorry!  There are not ARMS/TRIN moving average numbers today.
Errors with our data provider prevented us from providing
trustworthy material.


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    2197      2040
Decliners     635      1054

New Highs     166       141
New Lows       60        26

Up Volume   1746M     1514M
Down Vol.    467M      569M

Total Vol.  2218M     2113M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/12/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

We continue to see little change in commercial traders' positions.
Small traders are adding to positions and remain bullish although
there is a decent jump in new shorts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
03/23/04      401,456   418,732   (17,273)   (2.1%)
03/30/04      407,987   420,624   (12,673)   (1.5%)
04/06/04      409,429   419,471   (10,042)   (1.2%)
04/12/04      412,827   419,910   ( 7,083)   (0.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/23/04      130,648    89,943    40,705    18.5%
03/30/04      130,112    81,937    48,175    22.7%
04/06/04      130,262    80,174    50,088    23.8%
04/12/04      135,840    89,090    46,750    20.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercials have reduced the long positions and added to their
shorts, which is bearish for the markets.  Small traders remain
net long and have increased their bullish positions significantly.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
03/23/04      268,647   294,930    (26,283)  ( 4.7%)
03/30/04      265,492   305,797    (40,305)  ( 7.1%)
04/06/04      270,904   328,862    (57,958)  ( 9.7%)
04/12/04      261,889   341,163    (79,274)  (13.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/23/04      131,879     59,210    72,669    38.0%
03/30/04      123,494     59,550    63,944    35.0%
04/06/04      148,737     46,235   102,502    52.6%
04/12/04      172,473     52,274   120,199    53.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Almost no change in commercial traders' positions here.
The same can be said for small traders.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/23/04       52,014     34,017    17,997   20.9%
03/30/04       52,749     67,967   (15,218) (12.6%)
04/06/04       54,862     34,762    20,100   22.4%
04/12/04       54,144     34,432    19,712   22.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  13,386   - 03/16/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
03/23/04        9,884    12,887    (3,003)  (13.2%)
03/30/04        8,928    16,551    (7,623)  (30.0%)
04/06/04        7,971    20,721   (12,750)  (44.4%)
04/12/04        8,297    20,746   (12,449)  (42.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Still no change in commercial traders' positions here either.
It's an even race between longs and shorts.  Small traders
have actually grown more bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
03/23/04       23,048    22,119      929       2.1%
03/30/04       23,642    22,180    1,462       3.2%
04/06/04       23,101    22,108      993       2.2%
04/12/04       23,501    22,748      753       1.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
03/23/04        8,344     6,734    1,610     10.7%
03/30/04        7,020     6,711      309      2.3%
04/06/04        7,316     8,085     (769)    (5.0%)
04/12/04        6,136     7,450   (1,314)    (9.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Check Point Software - CHKP - close: 24.81 change: +0.84

WHAT TO WATCH: Showing their approval for the company's earnings
report earlier this week investors have sent shares of CHKP
soaring over the past 3 days and today they finally managed the
strong breakout over the $24 resistance level.  That puts the
stock at it best level in 2 years and based on the strong volume
accompanying the move, we're expecting it to continue.  Target
next resistance in the $28-29 area.




---

Tellabs, Inc. - TLAB - close: 9.73 change: +0.17

WHAT TO WATCH: Yesterday's earnings report was just what the
doctor ordered to break TLAB out of its descending trend of lower
highs.  With the move through both the descending trendline and
the 50-dma on strong volume, the stock looks destined for a move
back to the $10.50 level and possibly a retest of the January
highs over $11.  The best entries will come on a slight pullback
to test support at the broken trendline and the 50-dma.




---

PETsMART Inc. - PETM - close: 28.03 change: +0.57

WHAT TO WATCH: Since bottoming near the $22 level and completing
its consolidation back in December, shares of PETM have been
steadily working their way higher and are close to breaking out
to new all-time highs.  Use a trigger above $29 and target a move
to the $32-33 area ahead of the company's May 20th earnings
announcement.




---

Sonoco Products - SON - close: 25.77 change: +1.01

WHAT TO WATCH: It's amazing what a positive earnings announcement
can do.  Releasing its quarterly report yesterday did wonders for
the stock today, with a strong breakout through the $25.25 level
that has been holding it back since the first of the year.  This
looks like a real breakout, coming on strong volume.  Entries
look good either near current levels or on a slight pullback near
$25.  Look for a rally to next resistance near $27.50.





===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

TDW $29.05 - Investors heaved a huge sigh of relief this morning
when TDW's earnings report came in in-line and that sent sthe
stock soaring right to resistance at the 200-dma and 30-dma near
$29.  A breakout over that resistance should have the stock
making a run at next resistance at the confluence of the 100-dma
and 50-dma near $30.50, with a chance at a rally all the way back
to stronger resistance near $32.

ORLY $41.67 - ORLY has been building a bullish wedge for the past
few months, consistently finding support near its 200-dma and it
looks ready to break out of the pattern to the upside.  It's
probably too late for a pullback entry, so look to jump on board
on a break above $42.  Initial resistance comes in near $44-45
and then it's blue sky territory above.

BCO $29.70 - Helped along by the positive market, BCO broke out
to another all-time high today and it looks like the bullish
trend still has some life in it.  Entries look favorable on a
breakout over $30 or a slight pullback near $28.50.  Look for
continued upside action ahead of the company's earnings report,
expected in early May.


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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 04-22-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments:  AAP
Closed Plays:      CSCO
Stock Splits:      DHR, HSY, IEX, ODFL


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

AAP - short
Adjust from $40.00 up to $41.00


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 22.48 change: -0.34 stop: 23.01

News on Wednesday that there was a flaw in CSCO's routers that
could disable websites and disrupt Internet traffic produced a
brief moment of weakness.  Shares of CSCO dipped below support at
its simple 200-dma, the $22.00 level and its March low to trigger
us at $21.90.  The low on Wednesday was 21.80.  Unfortunately,
but the close on Wednesday the markets were rebounding after
Greenspan soothed Wall Street's interest rate fears.  In
Wednesday's newsletter we said that we had been triggered but
suggested readers wait since it looked like a bear trap.  Sure
enough that trap was closed today with a 3.48% rally as the
markets surged on earnings news.  We were stopped out at $23.01.

Picked on April 21 at $21.90
Gain since picked:    + 1.25
Earnings Date       05/11/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     57 million




=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------

DHR reports earnings and a 2-for-1 split

Before Thursday's opening bell, Danaher Corp (NYSE:DHR) reported
record Q1 earnings and a 2-for-1 stock split.

The split, in the form of a stock dividend, will be payable on May
20th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of May 6th.

The Board also declared its intention to double its cash dividend
to $0.015 cents per share on a post-split basis.

About the company:
Danaher Corporation is a leading manufacturer of Process /
Environmental Controls and Tools and Components (source: company
press release)

---

HSY sweetens earnings with a 2-for-1 split

Before Thursday's opening bell, Hershey Foods Corp (NYSE:HSY)
announced Q1 earnings and a 2-for-1 stock split.

The Board of Directors approved a 2-for-1 split in the form of a
100% stock dividend.  This dividend is payable on June 15th, 2004
to shareholders on record as of May 25th.

About the company:
Hershey Foods Corporation is the leading North American
manufacturer of quality chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery
and chocolate-related grocery products. Some of the company's most
popular products include Hershey's. chocolate and chocolate with
almonds bars, Hershey's. Kisses. brand chocolates, Reese's. peanut
butter cups, Jolly Rancher. and Twizzlers. candies, Hershey's.
cocoa, and Hershey's. syrup. The company also is a market leader
in the gum and mint category with such well-known brands as Ice
Breakers., Breath Savers., and Bubble Yum.. (source: company press
release)

---

IEX reports earnings and a 3-for-2 split

This morning before the opening bell, IDEX Corp (NYSE:IEX)
reported Q1 earnings and a 3-for-2 stock split.

The Board of Directors approved the 3-for-2 split in the form of a
50% stock dividend.  This dividend is payable on May 28th, 2004 to
shareholders on record as of May 14th.  Fractional shares will be
paid in cash.

The Board also approved a 29% jump in the company's regular cash
dividend to 18 cents per share (or 12 cents post-split).  The cash
dividend is payable in July.

About the company:
IDEX Corporation is a manufacturer of proprietary pumps and
metering products, dispensing equipment, and other engineered
products with leading positions in niche markets. Its products are
sold to a wide range of industries throughout the world.
(source: company press release)

---

ODFL reports earnings and a 3-for-2 split

This morning before the opening bell, Old Dominion Freight Line,
Inc. (NASDAQ:ODFL) announced record Q1 earnings, raised its 2004
guidance, and declared a 3-for-2 stock split.

The Board of Directors approved the 3-for-2 stock split in the
form of a 50% stock dividend.  This dividend is payable on May
20th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of May 6th.  Post-split
ODFL should have close to 24 million shares outstanding.

About the company:
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is a less-than-truckload multi-
regional motor carrier providing one to five day service among
five regions in the United States and next-day and second-day
service within these regions. Through its four product groups, OD-
Domestic, OD-Expedited, OD-Global and OD-Technology, the Company
offers an array of innovative products and services that provide
direct service to 40 states within the Southeast, South Central,
Northeast, Midwest and West regions of the country, including 28
states within which it provides full-state coverage. In addition,
through marketing and carrier relationships, Old Dominion provides
service to and from the remaining 10 states as well as
international services around the globe. (source: company
press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd          46.28     +1.74
NTT     Nippon Tel & Tel           27.67     +1.02
CVX     ChevronTexaco              91.73     +1.86
JPM     JP Morgan                  38.49     +0.81
C       Citigroup                  49.67     +0.53
SBC     SBC Communications         25.37     +0.60

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

LYO     Lyondell Chemical Co       17.33     +1.27
URI     United Rentals Inc         19.84     +2.99
DRTE    Dendrite Intl Inc          19.50     +1.45
WAB     Wabtec                     16.20     +1.22
EPIC    Epicor Software            15.30     +2.82
PLXT    PLX Technology             14.10     +1.21

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

TM      Toyota Motor Corp          76.36     +2.60
MOT     Motorola                   20.70     +1.40
EBAY    eBay Inc                   82.59     +7.81
ERICY   Lm Ericsson Telephone      32.25     +1.28
ITW     Illinois Tool Works        89.31     +3.81
SYK     Stryker Corp              100.35     +1.70
AMZN    Amazon.com                 48.86     +3.14

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

KLAC    KLA-Tencor                 46.14     -2.18
LUK     Leucadia National          50.56     -2.44
RBK     Reebok Intl Ltd            37.96     -4.01
CCMP    Cabot Microelectronics     33.36     -4.20
CNMD    Conmed Corp                27.14     -3.01
ATMI    ATMI Inc                   24.50     -1.03
HTCH    Hutchinson Technology      25.60     -1.29
MAGS    Magal Security Systems     25.06     -3.57

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

IGT     Intl Game Technology       44.18     -2.40


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