PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 04-29-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Trend Change! Market Sentiment: Truth Or Dare? Watch List: JNPR, HOV, DLTR, SLR, and more! ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 04-29-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10272.27 - 70.30 10407.97 10219.18 2.30 bln 850/2400 NASDAQ 1958.78 - 30.80 1998.02 1946.10 2.37 bln 830/2362 S&P 100 544.54 - 3.30 551.53 541.69 Totals 1680/4762 S&P 500 1113.89 - 8.52 1128.80 1108.02 W5000 10867.10 -100.30 11008.24 10811.96 SOX 450.48 - 11.80 464.46 443.74 RUS 2000 567.25 - 9.81 580.45 564.44 DJ TRANS 2904.06 - 43.10 2964.52 2890.85 VIX 16.60 + 0.31 17.27 15.87 VXO (VIX-O)17.30 + 0.58 18.01 16.23 VXN 24.90 + 0.98 25.51 23.95 Total Volume 5,147M Total UpVol 825M Total DnVol 4,174M Total Adv 5410 Total Dcl 1900 52wk Highs 98 52wk Lows 300 NasTRIN 2.13 TRIN 1.24 PUT/CALL 1.00 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Trend Change! by Jim Brown It only took two days but the trend is on the verge of a drastic change. The Dow hit 10537 on Tuesday and 10219 today. In only two days the Dow has moved from the high end of its range to the very low end of its range for the entire month. The earnings sentiment has gone from very bullish to very bearish despite any material change in the earnings. Fear of the Fed, trouble in Iraq, decline in China and election fears have all been given as excuses. Which one is it? Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart – Daily The morning started out good with Jobless Claims dropping back below 350K to 338,000 and moving back to the level we saw in March. Something to do with the Easter holiday had bumped the numbers back over 350K for two weeks but that anomaly appears to have passed. That was the extent of the good news. The Employment Cost Index rose faster than expected at +1.1% pushed higher on soaring benefit costs. Those costs jumped +2.4% for Q1 and nearly double the costs for the prior three quarters. Benefits for blue collar workers rose +3.8% and +4.2% for manufacturing workers. This is a very strong jump for benefits where most of the cost is due to rising healthcare. The wage component rose only +0.6% and it was the slowest growth rate recorded to date! That suggests the labor market is still very soft and employees have no leverage in negotiating wages. This was not good news for the employment picture or for future company earnings if the trend continues. Confirming the weak employment market was a drop in the Help Wanted Index for March to 39. It was not a big move but it did reverse the minor uptick from the prior month. It appears there was some pickup in job advertising in February as the new year got underway but that may have only have been a blip. Not an earth shaking report compared to those we have next week but still another crack in the economic outlook. The biggest economic blow for the day was the GDP which only posted a +4.2% gain in the most current estimate. Consensus estimates had been in the +5.2% range with whisper numbers nearing +6%. Suddenly all the constantly improving bullish comments on the economy imploded and with it the expectations for surging stock prices. All things considered the +4.2% rate is very good. Everyone would be very happy to maintain that rate for several years but the problem was expectations. The market had priced in expectations of 5.2-5.5% or more. The constant buzz about the very strong Q1 earnings had investors thinking the revised GDP for the quarter was also going to be very strong and surprise to the upside. Instead the surprise shocked everyone back to reality. Business is good but not great and harder times lay ahead. That reality is also creeping into earnings. As of last weekend 78% of companies had beaten estimates for Q1. As of today that number is down to 76% and still very respectable. The problem is the guidance. As we get deeper into the earnings cycle the quality of companies reporting declines and we are getting fewer upside surprises and more downside guidance. The common report is now predicting stronger comparisons ahead. I have been cautioning you that this would happen but when the markets are near their highs and the bulls are running nobody wants to face facts. The underlying fact is simple. The economy boomed in late 2003. Remember that +8.2% GDP in Q3-2003? The Q2-2003 production cycle is what pushed us to much stronger earnings and output in Q2, Q3 and Q4. That ramp up on the very large tax rebate program in 2003 pulled us out of the depths of recession and boosted us into high gear. We hit full speed in late Q3 and quickly ran out of tax rebate fuel. We posted a GDP of 4.1% in Q4, normally a strong quarter and have been coasting through Q1 at that 4.1% rate. Companies were hoping to pit stop in Q1 and pickup some more tax refund cash to spur buying but as I have reported previously those refunds shrank to about 1/4-1/3 of what was expected. Now we are faced with the summer doldrums ahead and no gas in the economic tank. Obviously that is a greatly simplified picture and not exactly correct but I think you get the idea. The good news from the lower GDP is no urgency on the part of the Fed. They were about to go into attack mode if we had broken out over +5% and that threat has been neutralized. We have several more critical economic reports over the next several days and the Fed meeting on Tuesday but the decision should already be over. Odds of a rate hike in May or even June just went to near zero. The market obviously did not celebrate that fact. The market opened down and then rallied slightly on a single buy program on the Help Wanted news and then crashed. Whoever pulled the trigger on that buy program was probably celebrating the Fed knockout but when the keg ran dry he found himself the only one at the party. Falling expectations trumped the falling chances of a rate hike. Stocks that had been highly leveraged on the chances of a strong economic explosion suddenly found themselves over priced for a return to a slow growth environment. Semiconductors, techs and small caps were dumped with no hesitation. Helping fuel the fears of an economic slow down were comments from China that the government was going to take "strong" steps to slow down its overheated economy. Commodities dropped like a rock on Wed when the comments were made. China has been on a ferocious pace with growth at a 9.7% rate. They have been sucking up gold, silver, copper, oil and almost every manufacturing material in excess of current supply. Prices had been soaring. The potential for China to suddenly slow rippled through all the markets. This ripple was hardly warranted. The target growth rate for China is +7.1%, hardly a recession. China's growth can be slowed by the Premier taking strong measures as he has said but it is not going to stop tomorrow. We all know it takes months if not years to see any impact from economic brakes. The greed factor is alive and well and it will always find a way to prosper if buyers are available. Yes, comments from China did hit our markets over the last couple days but the real impact is more imagined than real for the time being. Iraq and Israel were also used as excuses for the depression in the U.S. markets. I would hope that anybody investing real money is intelligent enough to know there has been and will be fighting in those countries until hell freezes over. Sure, news that ?? American soldiers were killed on any given day is still very troubling but it is not something that should tank the market by triple digits. It all boils down to earnings and profits. Polite conversations about the merits of particular stocks and the potential for the next rally are held daily in institutions and across supper tables. They remain polite as long as the uptrend remains intact. Many funds, institutions and private traders have huge profits on the table from the March rebound last year. The Dow 100 dma was not touched from April through February. It was broken in March but quickly recovered. Trigger fingers relaxed and traders with huge profits began to breath again. It was broken again on the 21st but a rebound the next day put traders back at ease. However, we all know the adage, once bitten twice shy and the markets have been bitten several times lately. The markets have been very nervous for the last couple of weeks. Traders continued to hope for new highs to confirm the economic expectations and their justifications for continuing to hold profits from the 2003 rally. Unfortunately since the current high for the year was set on February 19th we have seen a steady progression of lower highs. Tuesday's push to 10537 was the culmination of two weeks of gains but it was still a lower high and one that was only 131 points over the 100dma. Once that high failed with no attempted rebound the rats began deserting the ship. That desertion turned into a rout on Wed/Thr. Volume made new highs for the year and it was extremely negative. On Wednesday volume across all markets was 4.9B shares. 4.2B was down volume with only 606 million shares of up volume, a 7:1 disadvantage. On Thursday volume hit 5.2B shares, a record for the year, and down volume was 4.2B with up volume only 829 million, 5:1. The new highs/new lows number was also a disaster. Only 99 stocks hit new highs and 303 hit new lows. To put this in perspective that is the first time new highs have been under 100 since March 24th, 2003. It is the first time new lows have been over 300 since March 12th, 2003. That just happens to be the day the Dow broke under 7500 and set the low for 2003. I want to make sure this is clear. The new high/lows for today were as bad as the day the Dow was at the low for 2003. The difference is about 2750 Dow points. We should not be seeing these kinds of internals at this level in the market. This is serious but it does not mean it will continue. The Dow has dropped nearly -300 points in three days. It closed today at 10272 after touching 10219. This level is very critical. 10300 has been the bottom of our range since March 29th. However, if you remember the March drop took us to 10007. There is still a technical possibility that we could hold here or at the March lows near 10000. I say technical possibility because the sentiment has definitely changed. It is one thing to predict higher moves when all the earnings and economics are improving but once the dominoes begin to fall the change in sentiment accelerates quickly. I am not going to sugar coat this. We are at a critical point in the market. We could continues to go either way but the path of least resistance is definitely down. The Nasdaq also broke critical support today and has fallen -100 points since Monday. Further support remains at 1940 and again at 1900 but the outlook is not good. Taking the Nasdaq down is the semiconductor sector which broke final support on Thursday and sank to a six month low. Take a look at the SOX chart and the risk to the overall market will be quickly apparent. SOX Chart – Daily Russell 2000 Chart – Daily The last twig on the cliff that the bulls can cling to is the Russell. Small caps have been taking a beating this week and the Russell is on the verge of breaking that last critical support at 560. We have been near this level four previous times since January and each time there was a miraculous recovery and it could happen again. Unfortunately the chart is not suggesting that for tomorrow. Before I get too bearish we all need to remember that market events run in cycles and this cycle could just be an over reaction to the changing trend. We have serious economic events in our near future as well as a Fed meeting and the GDP today was a warning. Actually it is unrelated to any of the economics we will see over the next week but it did take some of the complacency out of the economic expectations. We have had two very negative days in the market. It may be time for the bargain hunters to rush into the gap but there are no indications yet that it will happen tomorrow. I have been telling you to sell the tops and buy the bottoms as long as we remained range bound. I suggested selling the 10500-10550 top of the range as recently as Tuesday. On Sunday I suggested a break of this trend would be a move under Dow 10250 and Nasdaq 1975. Both of those levels were broken today. The Dow regained some ground to close back above 10250 but only slightly. The stage is set. Another drop at the open and the bulls could be heading for summer pasture. While nobody would expect the market to roll over and die it could be a rocky month ahead. The majority of the initial damage has been done and after Friday we could move sideways until after the Fed meeting. If we rebound from 10250/1975 I would be very cautious about going along for the ride. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Truth Or Dare? - J. Brown The major indices hit new monthly lows but managed a weak end of day rebound to lessen the sting of Thursday's losses. The markets remain in their trading range but now here at the low end of the range the question remains. Will investors buy the bottom? There are plenty of sectors and stocks that are approaching short-term oversold conditions and we're due for a bounce. The NASDAQ composite is one of them, down four days in a row. It just happened to rebound from the 1950 level outlined as potential support in the wrap on Wednesday. Underpinning this area is the 200-dma about 20 points below it. Weighing on tech stocks was a significant drop in the semiconductor index (SOX). The SOX pierced support at the 450 level intraday but managed a rebound to close (just barely) above it. The SOX, like many of the tech sector indices, have seen four strong days of declines. The NWX networking index, thanks to more weakness from Nortel Networks and Cisco Systems, broke down and closed under key support at its 200-dma and the 250 level. The +4.2% GDP number was less than the 5% growth expected and probably would have eased some fears regarding the proximity of any rate hike. Unfortunately, with the GDP report was the personal consumption expenditure index, a key gauge of inflation, that came out pretty strong. This effectively revived the rate hike specter once again. Noteworthy was the market's internals. They've been very bearish the last couple of days. The advance/decline numbers were pretty dark today with losers outnumbering winners 3-to-1 on the NYSE and 23-to-8 on the NASDAQ. Down volume completely overshadowed up volume 4-to-1 on the NYSE and nearly 6-to-1 on the NASDAQ. Tomorrow brings even more economic data that will steal the focus from corporate earnings as Wall Street frets over next Tuesday's FOMC meeting. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 8305 Current : 10272 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10399 50-dma: 10404 200-dma: 9967 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 898 Current : 1113 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1130 50-dma: 1130 200-dma: 1072 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1084 Current : 1431 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1463 50-dma: 1452 200-dma: 1408 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Volatility indices continued their march higher but they remain within their recent trading range. If the range holds true then we could see a bullish reversal in the markets soon. CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.07 +0.30 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 14.98 +0.04 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 21.84 +0.01 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 1.00 797,749 798,591 Equity Only 0.77 664,197 513,577 OEX 1.05 31,395 33,244 QQQ 2.69 48,744 131,405 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 74.7 - 1 Bull Confirmed NASDAQ-100 47.0 - 9 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 80.0 - 3 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 71.6 - 3 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 73.0 - 1 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 3.59 10-dma: 2.69 21-dma: 1.83 55-dma: 1.49 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 712 830 Decliners 2127 2303 New Highs 48 59 New Lows 94 53 Up Volume 438M 336M Down Vol. 1739M 1983M Total Vol. 2289M 2332M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 04/20/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials still not willing to place in big one-sided bets. The remain net short. Small traders upped their bearish positions by a couple of thousand contracts. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/30/04 407,987 420,624 (12,673) (1.5%) 04/06/04 409,429 419,471 (10,042) (1.2%) 04/12/04 412,827 419,910 ( 7,083) (0.9%) 04/20/04 409,729 421,456 (11,727) (1.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/30/04 130,112 81,937 48,175 22.7% 04/06/04 130,262 80,174 50,088 23.8% 04/12/04 135,840 89,090 46,750 20.8% 04/20/04 136,699 92,982 43,717 19.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials remain heavily net short the e-minis and small traders, who typically do the opposite, are right on track with heavy long positions. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 03/30/04 265,492 305,797 (40,305) ( 7.1%) 04/06/04 270,904 328,862 (57,958) ( 9.7%) 04/12/04 261,889 341,163 (79,274) (13.1%) 04/20/04 275,985 355,555 (79,570) (10.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/30/04 123,494 59,550 63,944 35.0% 04/06/04 148,737 46,235 102,502 52.6% 04/12/04 172,473 52,274 120,199 53.5% 04/20/04 186,799 69,137 117,662 46.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Very little movement in the NDX futures for commercial traders. The same can be said for small traders. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/30/04 52,749 67,967 (15,218) (12.6%) 04/06/04 54,862 34,762 20,100 22.4% 04/12/04 54,144 34,432 19,712 22.3% 04/20/04 54,852 35,964 18,888 20.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 13,386 - 03/16/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/30/04 8,928 16,551 (7,623) (30.0%) 04/06/04 7,971 20,721 (12,750) (44.4%) 04/12/04 8,297 20,746 (12,449) (42.9%) 04/20/04 8,538 19,431 (10,893) (39.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (10,769) - 06/11/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Hmm... we're seeing a little bit of money getting shuffled around here. Commercials are slightly more bullish this week. Small traders, as expected, have turned more bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 03/30/04 23,642 22,180 1,462 3.2% 04/06/04 23,101 22,108 993 2.2% 04/12/04 23,501 22,748 753 1.6% 04/20/04 24,156 22,009 2,147 4.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 03/30/04 7,020 6,711 309 2.3% 04/06/04 7,316 8,085 (769) (5.0%) 04/12/04 6,136 7,450 (1,314) (9.7%) 04/20/04 5,997 9,631 (3,634) (23.3%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 22.95 change: -1.23 WHAT TO WATCH: Selling off hard in sympathy with the Semiconductor stocks on Thursday, the Networkers fared even worse, with the NWX index losing 3.5%. JNPR had been trying to hold support near $24, but that went right out the window, as the stock plunged lower by more than 5%. With the late-day rebound, the most likely bearish entry point will come on a failed rally near the $24 level of resistance. However, a return of the sellers as we head into the weekend may be just the ticket for a momentum entry below the $22 level. Target a move down to the $19-20 area. --- Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. - HOV - close: 35.97 change: -1.46 WHAT TO WATCH: Housing stocks continued to feel the pain on Thursday, with the $DJUSHB index crumbling another 2.44%. We've looked at shares of HOV from a bearish perspective several times recently and it looks like the expected breakdown is close at hand. Today's dip below the January lows was a technical violation of support, but the stock managed to rebound above that level by the close. Use a trigger under $35 and target a drop to next strong support at $30. --- Dollar Tree Stores - DLTR - close: 27.15 change: -0.56 WHAT TO WATCH: We had DLTR on our Radar Screen yesterday, as it looked like the stock was preparing for a breakdown under the key $27.50 support level. Sure enough, the ice cracked today and the stock fell to its lowest level since last May. Entries below today's low look the best for aggressive traders. Target a continued slide towards strong support at $24. --- Solectron Corp. - SLR - close: 5.21 change: -0.11 WHAT TO WATCH: There's been little for SLR investors to cheer about over the past several months, as the stock has been mired in a persistent downtrend. Things appear ready to get a bit worse, as the stock has now fallen to key support at $5.10. Use a trigger below that level for entry and target a drop to next support at $4.50. =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== WGO $28.82 - Are consumers starting to pull in their horns? You'd certainly think so in light of the shellacking taken by shares of WGO over the past week. Today's drop broke the 200-dma and the stock is right on the verge of breaking strong support near $28. Use a trigger under today's low and target a drop to next strong support near $24. CSCO $21.91 - Despite the weakness in much of the Technology sector, bulls have been staunchly defending the $22 level in CSCO. That support gave way today, with the stock probing the $21.50 area on rising volume. Use a trigger below today's low and target a drop towards strong support near $19.50 ahead of the company's earnings report on May 11th. CIEN $4.32 - Look out below! The market decline over the past couple days has been pretty rough on shares of CIEN, as the stock broke key support near $4.70 yesterday and with today's drop, it is right on the verge of breaking down again. Use a trigger under $4.20 and target next support near $3.65. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 04-29-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: FCX, ALVR Stock Splits: PTEN, IKNX Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= FCX - short Adjust from $36.50 down to $32.50 ALVR - short Adjust from $13.00 down to $12.35 ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- PTEN announces a 2-for-1 split with earnings This morning before the opening bell Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:PTEN) announced its Q1 financial results and a 2-for-1 stock split. The Board of Directors approved the 2-for-1 split in the form of a 100% stock dividend. This dividend will be payable on June 30th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of June 14th. PTEN does have a cash dividend of 4 cents per share payable pre- split on June 2nd, 2004 to shareholders on record as of May 17th. About the company: Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. provides onshore contract drilling services to exploration and production companies in North America. The Company owns 361 land-based drilling rigs that operate primarily in the oil and natural gas producing regions of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and western Canada. Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. is also engaged in the businesses of pressure pumping services and drilling and completion fluid services. Additionally, the Company has an exploration and production business that is based in Texas. (source: company press release) -- IKNX announces a 3-for-2 split This afternoon before the closing bell IKONICS Corp (NASDAQ:IKNX) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its common shares to be enacted as a 50% stock dividend. The payable date for the split is May 13th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of May 6th. Fractional shares will be paid in cash. Post-split IKNX should have 1.89 million shares outstanding. About the company: Derived from the Greek, eikon, or image, the fundamental business of the IKONICS Corporation is the creation and transfer of physical and visual images. Through processes based in photochemistry, abrasive etching, chemical etching and other technologies, IKONICS participates in a diverse spectrum of markets. From traditional and high-tech screen printing, to decorative and industrial etching and imaging, IKONICS Corporation conducts business in over 90 countries. (source: company website) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PGR Progressive 87.23 +0.77 GD General Dynamics 93.92 +0.97 GDW Golden West Financial 104.99 +2.44 CCE Coca-Cola Enterprises 26.28 +1.62 CTL Centurytel Inc 29.02 +2.07 BEC Beckman Coulter Inc 56.07 +0.57 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- TWI Titan Intl Inc 7.88 +1.14 MRBA Marimba Inc 8.07 +3.20 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- G Gillette 41.20 +2.25 EL Estee Lauder 46.00 +1.58 WAT Waters Corp 42.97 +1.35 RSG Republic Services 29.50 +1.38 IRM Iron Mountain Inc 45.10 +1.46 IMDC Inamed Corp 58.84 +3.66 MEG Media General 72.40 +1.80 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- TXN Texas Instruments 25.43 -1.29 AMX America Movil 34.40 -1.92 NKE Nike Inc 72.14 -1.47 ADI Analog Devices Inc 43.99 -1.06 WY Weyerhauser Co 60.47 -1.68 AET Aetna Inc 83.72 -4.03 PEG Public Service Enterprises 42.88 -1.73 MBT Mobile Telesys 107.50 -4.40 JP Jefferson-Pilot 49.64 -1.14 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- SUN Sunoco 63.40 -1.83 CME Chicago Mercantile Exchg 117.00 -1.50 ELAB Eon Labs Inc 67.21 -3.21 NFX Newfield Exploration 52.44 -1.48 MRX Medicis Pharmaceutical 42.90 -1.18 ATK Alliant Tech systems 59.96 -1.55 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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