PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 05-18-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: The Day the Market Stood Still Watch List: An Eclectic Mix Market Sentiment: Pay at the pump ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 05-18-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 9968.51 + 61.60 9987.04 9906.64 1.68 bln 2304/ 893 NASDAQ 1897.82 + 21.20 1903.39 1890.95 1.48 bln 2000/1113 S&P 100 533.82 + 3.42 535.25 530.40 Totals 4304/2006 S&P 500 1091.53 + 7.43 1094.14 1084.10 W5000 10598.26 + 80.40 10615.01 10518.57 SOX 453.36 + 8.40 455.97 444.94 RUS 2000 542.56 + 7.22 542.56 535.34 DJ TRANS 2842.36 + 30.00 2844.18 2811.35 VIX 19.33 - 0.63 19.70 19.14 VXO (VIX-O)19.82 - 1.21 20.54 19.23 VXN 27.75 - 1.44 29.29 27.58 Total Volume 3,421M Total UpVol 2,628M Total DnVol 742M Total Adv 4793 Total Dcl 2321 52wk Highs 52 52wk Lows 190 TRIN 0.83 NAZTRIN 0.51 PUT/CALL 0.99 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== The Day the Market Stood Still by Jim Brown Almost like a scene out of an old science fiction movie the markets gapped open on Asian relief and then just stopped. They traded almost completely flat after 10:30 on very light volume. Intraday charts showed a near flat line despite the advancers controlling the day. It was not a surge in buyers but a complete lack of aggressive sellers. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - 5 min The lack of excitement worried everyone and there was a total lack of conviction. However, there were several attempts to press a sell off and they all failed quickly. Resistance held and so did support. Considering the weak economics this morning just holding in place was an accomplishment. Chain Store Sales came in at -0.8% and the second consecutive weekly loss. Consumers are getting killed at the pump with gas prices hitting an all time high today. This is taking cash out of consumers pockets and summer weather kept them out of stores. Tax refunds have begun to dwindle and consumers are running out of surplus cash. New Residential Construction fell to 1.969M units from 2.011M in March. This shows that builders are not as optimistic about the future with rising rates. The drop was not significant and we did have a very strong March so this is not really a factor to fear. If it dropped another 50-100K traders would start to worry more that the sector was weakening. Several comments and events recently have begun to question if the Fed would actually hike in June so the picture is still cloudy. We still have a couple strong months ahead for home sales. The majority of the market relief today was due to a recovery in the Asian markets. India led the rebound with a +8% gain after Sonia Gandhi turned down the Prime Minister position. The Indian markets fell -17% intraday on Monday and recovered to close only down -11% but it was still the biggest loss on record. Other Asian markets fell on the news on Monday with the Nikkei down -3%, Taiwan -5.1% and Korea -5%. All those markets recovered on Tuesday and the U.S. markets rebounded at the open on relief. We also saw the GDP in Japan come in at +5.6% when only +3.5% had been expected. That was the last major economic release for the week and the Nikkei jumped +2% but only recovered two-thirds of Monday's losses. No sooner had the markets opened up than Fed President Al Broaddus delivered a hawkish speech expressing concern that core inflation had quickly bottomed and was on a subsequent upswing. He said there was a growing concern at the Fed about inflation. He said that after a long period of worrying about lack of inflation he would now have to dust off his inflation hawk feathers in case he had to attack it again soon. As if he feared he had said to much he repeated the current Fed refrain of "labor market slack and excess capacity will restrain the inflation pressures in the period immediately ahead." He also repeated the "measured pace" phrase but said there is no question the risk is greater now than just three months ago. He dismissed 1994 parallels saying the Fed only wanted to "stabilize" inflation at the current levels today and not "reduce" it as they did in 1994. Since it took almost 20 years for the last inflation cycle to be broken the Fed does not want to go there again and Broaddus made it clear the Fed would not allow it to happen again. This was the most hawkish of the recent Fed speakers and brought the June rate hike back into focus. That hike had been discounted somewhat over the last couple days with oil hitting 22 year highs and depressing the current economic environment. Coupled with global market instability there were some beginning to think the Fed could still take a pass in June. I think the inventory adjustment to the GDP will push it high enough that the Fed will feel required to act. Helping push the U.S. markets higher at the open were strong earnings from CSC and Agilent. This helped push the Nasdaq back to 1900 but the index could not hold it. The Dow tried to regain 10000 but that was also an elusive target. The Dow rebounded from 9900 support that held firm yesterday and climbed to 9970 by 10:30 and it held that level the rest of the day. By failing to recover 10K after trading very close all day it cast significant doubt on the quality of the rally. The Nasdaq rebounded +20 points at the open and then traded in a six point range the rest of the day. This is yet another lower high and another failure to return to critical levels. Both indexes gave the appearance of a simple dead cat bounce where sellers paused in hopes buyers would rush into the dip and push indexes back to resistance so sellers could pile on once again. I mentioned on Sunday there was a chance the market could see an option expiration rally off critical support at NDX 1400 and Nasdaq 1900 on Monday assuming there were no weekend events. Obviously the Asian market implosion was a key event over the weekend that nullified that rebound potential. The failure for the NDX/Compx to return to those levels today is a clue to the weakness still ahead. The lack of volume was another clue. We are two days into expiration week and it appears everyone is content to let the week end at this level. Hedge funds or just funds in general have been pushing the market around worse than the ball in a Ping Pong match. On Monday volume in the QQQ was over 150 million shares. Today it was only 96 million. Average volume is 103 million. A 50% increase in volume on one day should give you a clue how heavily the funds are hedged. Program trading hit 52.3% on the NYSE last week, the highest level ever. Average daily volume in program trades was 847 million shares. Only 11% of the program trading was due to arbitrage. That is the buying/selling of a basket of stocks and futures to capture differences in the fair value. (http://www.nyse.com/press/1084441844123.html) The retail trader is being tossed around like a ship in a storm as the big guys fight for points. The lack of ANY volatility after 10:30 today indicates the hedge funds and institutions took the day off. Whether they are comfortable holding the indexes just under key resistance or they were hoping for a bounce to sell we will not know until tomorrow. One statistic on cash flow that hit the airwaves today was the outflow of cash by foreign investors. In March there was an inflow of +$2.4 billion but April saw outflows of -$13.5 billion. This was the highest outflow since records began in 1978. Deficits and rate hikes were given as the reasons for the withdrawals as foreign accounts repatriate money. A positive for today's market was a drop in oil of more than a $1. July crude fell -1.08 to $40.40 after setting an all time high yesterday. There is no reason other than profit taking and the recovery of the Asian markets. The Bush administration said it would NOT use the strategic oil reserves to reduce prices. That oil is supposed to be for national emergencies and for a defense stockpile. Prices are not an emergency. Considering the rate of escalation in price and the heated words over oil in the press I don't think it is a bad idea to store it up. Planes, ships, tanks, trucks and humvees don't run without oil. I also don't think it would hurt to start applying the screws to OPEC nations. Cutting off trade favors to several might take the smile off their face. It only costs an average of $8 to produce a barrel of oil so profits are huge. One market factor I mentioned last week was eliminated when Bush formally reappointed Greenspan to his position today for another four year term. He now has to be approved by Congress but that is not expected to be a problem. Greenspan cannot serve the entire term. His term at the Fed is up on Feb-1st 2006 and he will have to abdicate by then. By law he cannot continue at the Fed past that date. That gives us a little over a year and an election before potential successors will start posturing in the press. After the bell today several tech companies reported great earnings. Leading the list was Hewlett Packard, which did announce inline at 34 cents and a profit of $1.3 billion on an operating basis. Sales in Europe surged +17% on things like digital cameras, music players and laptops. Carly Fiorina said the quarter was strong but admitted corporations were still reluctant to spend millions on computer upgrades. She said pricing was extremely competitive and sales depended on price. HPQ raised its guidance but it was clear that Dell was breathing down their neck in hot pursuit and IBM is chipping away at the HPQ base. AMAT beat the street by three cents and said orders were up +32% in the first quarter to $2.21 billion. AMAT raised its guidance for the current quarter and said its plants were running at 100% with plenty of opportunity for upside. NTAP also announced earnings inline with estimates and they predicted revenues would grow +4-6% in the current quarter. ADSK also beat the street by +6 cents and boosted estimates for the full year. PLAB beat the street by +3 cents and will give guidance on a conference call on Wednesday. Earnings are good, the economy is growing and Asia is still booming as evidenced by Japan's GDP today. However the U.S. markets are still weak. Even the finding of a couple chemical weapons in Iraq could not send them higher. You know why and I do not need to spell it out again. There are still some rocky times ahead and while we may be nearing some strong support there is still strong overhead supply. There is stock for sale and until that supply goes away we will continue to be weak. June 30th is the key day for more than one reason. The key for me is when will traders decide that enough is enough and start nibbling at beaten up issues in hopes of a summer rally after that date. The velocity of the decline is slowing but we may not be done yet. For the rest of the week there are no economic reports that should shake up the markets. We have three days left in expiration week and based on today's volume it could be very boring. I have been suggesting everyone sell rallies until the trend changes but I am recommending a neutral approach today. Until we get past expiration it could be terminally boring interspersed with periods of extreme volatility. Neither environment is conducive to profitable trading. Next week we should return to normal and a trend should emerge again. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- An Eclectic Mix Coca Cola Enterprises Inc. - CCE - close: 27.02 change: +0.03 WHAT TO WATCH: After an explosive upward move at the end of April, shares of CCE have been trading in strong fashion, gradually rising back to the top of the range of April 30th. With the pattern of higher lows and higher highs since that move, CCE looks like it is ready for another breakout. The bulls couldn't sustain a breakout today, but a move through the $27.40 level can be used for a bullish entry trigger. Look for an initial move to the $30 level, with potential for a longer-term rise towards the $32 level. --- Praxair Inc. - PX - close: 35.26 change: +0.33 WHAT TO WATCH: Spending the past several months building a broad topping formation, shares of PX look to be in trouble. After putting in a convincing double top near the $39 level, the stock has fallen back to key support near $35. Yesterday's break of the 200-dma didn't look good for the bulls, but they did manage to buy the dip, just above the March lows. Use a trigger at $34.50 (just under those lows) and target a drop back to strong support near $32. Note that a trade at $34 will generate a new PnF Sell signal with a downside objective of $29, just above the bullish support line. --- Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. - VLCCF - close: 23.15 change: +1.64 WHAT TO WATCH: The reality that there is a shortage of tankers available for shipping crude oil around the globe in an increasing demand environment hasn't been lost on investors, as shares of VLCCF have come roaring back following the recent dip to the 100-dma. Yesterday's breakout over $21.50 looked encouraging and the stock saw strong follow-through today. After such a strong 2-day move, we're hesitant to suggest chasing the stock higher, but a mild pullback and rebound from the $21.50- 22.00 area looks like a great point to enter. Note that the PnF chart is once again strongly bullish with a new Buy signal and an upside target of $36.50. --- Kronos Inc. - KRON - close: 37.97 change: +1.69 WHAT TO WATCH: After a strong upward move in late April following the company's earnings report, shares of KRON have been trading in a tight consolidation range between $35.50-37.50, but that range looks ready to break to the upside. The stock rallied strongly today and rather than showing any late-day weakness pushed higher to close at its best level since early February. Entries look favorable on a slight pullback near the $37 level or on a breakout over today's high. Target a rally back to strong resistance near $40-41. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== TIF $34.00 - The past few weeks have not been kind to TIF investors, as the stock has broken down in a big way, taking out strong support in the $36-37 area and falling all the way to the $32 area yesterday. But today the stock is on the rebound and while early, this could be setting us up for a nice continuation short trade. Wait for this rebound to run its course and then look for bearish entries on a rollover from the $36-37 area. Target a drop near $28, the current PnF bearish price target. PLAB $16.60 - Looking for an aggressive bullish play? PLAB looks like a good candidate following today's strong rally in the wake of the company's earnings report. The stock soared through the past few weeks of resistance and follow-through could easily take the stock up to test strong resistance near $19. Use a $17 trigger (just over today's high and the 50-dma). BJ $20.70 - We looked at BJ as a bearish candidate last week when the stock broke down near its January lows. As expected, the stock was due for a bit of a bounce, but the bears hit that bounce pretty hard today, driving the stock back towards support. Use a trigger at $19.80, just under last week's lows and look for the stock to trade down towards the $16 area. Note that the PnF chart is already bearish with a downside target of $13, although the bullish support line currently rests at $16. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Pay at the pump By Jeff Bailey U.S. stocks recouped the bulk of Monday's losses on Tuesday as investor sentiment is swayed not only by what is taking place at home in the U.S., but overseas as well, where great focus has been given to energy prices as the global economy picks up momentum. U.S. Government statistics released this week showed the national average for a gallon of retail gasoline reached $2.00 for the first time in history, leaping 7.6 cents over the past week to a record high of $2.017 a gallon. While the government forecasted that the average price for retail gasoline will peak at $2.03 a gallon in June, industry analysts expect prices to rise further because of a seasonal increase in demand that usually kicks in after the Memorial Day weekend. The continued rise in gasoline prices may have eaten away at consumer spending habits, where chain store sales edged down 0.8% in the week ended May 15, versus a 0.3% rise in the previous week. Broadline retailers have expressed some concern that higher gasoline prices may eat into sales should consumers begin cutting back on discretionary purchases as they fill their tanks with higher priced gasoline. Helping alleviate some fears that the consumer's pocketbook has been totally depleted after the recent 3-month rise in Treasury yields, which have raised the rate of borrowing costs for consumers and had negative impact mortgage refinancing, was the quarterly earnings report from Home Depot (NYSE:HD) $34.62 +3.43%, where the building products retailer handily beat Wall Street's earnings forecast. Early Monday morning, geopolitical events in Iraq saw stocks drop early in the session, but by Tuesday's close, stocks are back near Friday's closing prices. Monday morning's news that the head of Iraq's governing council had been killed in a car bomb attack had June, Light Sweet Crude Oil futures (cl04m) spiking to a contract high of $41.85 and achieving its point and figure chart bullish vertical count of $41.75, but since that morning high trade, June crude has slipped back below $40.50, helping alleviate some near-term fears regarding higher energy prices impact on inflation and the global economic recovery. Crude prices dropped in Tuesday's trade despite the Bush administration rebuffing pressure from Democrats to open the spigots on the nations emergency oil stockpile to help lower record gasoline prices. Saudi Arabia has proposed that OPEC boost output by 1.5 million barrels per day when the cartel meets June 3. Also giving boost to investor sentiment in Tuesday's trade was Japan's Nikkei 225 gaining 1.96% after the Japanese government said its economy grew at a 1.4% rate in the first quarter. The news helped calm fears that higher oil prices and rising U.S. interest rates would jeopardize Japan's export-led recovery. Market internals in today's U.S. trade showed some sign of renewed bullish leadership trying to build from some deeply oversold conditions found last week. The NYSE reported 17 stocks hitting new 52-week highs compared to 59 stocks hitting new lows, which has the 5-day NH/NL average ratio improving to 12.5% and moving above the still declining 10- day ratio of 10.8%. NASDAQ showed similar improvement with 31 new highs and 74 new lows, but not from as deeply oversold levels where the 5-day NH/NL average ratio improved for the fourth-straight session to 24.3%, but still remains below its declining 10-day NH/NL average ratio of 26.6%. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 8416 Current : 9968 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10062 50-dma: 10278 200-dma: 10029 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 912 Current : 1091 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1098 50-dma: 1118 200-dma: 1080 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1103 Current : 1397 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1407 50-dma: 1436 200-dma: 1418 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.33 -0.63 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 19.82 -1.21 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 27.75 -1.44 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.99 716,116 710,531 Equity Only 0.75 561,884 423,685 OEX 1.88 35,393 66,475 QQQ 1.30 147,692 191,668 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 61.5 - 1 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 31.0 - 3 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 66.7 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 57.8 - 1 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 61.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.85 10-dma: 0.96 21-dma: 1.06 55-dma: 1.05 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 2084 1951 Decliners 774 1107 New Highs 29 35 New Lows 50 40 Up Volume 1288M 1074M Down Vol. 374M 311M Total Vol. 1694M 1395M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/04/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials increased their open interest be equivalent amounts both long and short, while small traders went net shorter. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 04/20/04 409,729 421,456 (11,727) (1.4%) 04/27/04 406,927 416,244 ( 9,317) (1.1%) 05/04/04 397,964 417,175 (19,211) (2.4%) 05/11/04 401,365 421,672 (20,307) (2.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 04/20/04 136,699 92,982 43,717 19.0% 04/27/04 133,775 90,535 43,240 19.3% 05/04/04 137,112 80,201 56,911 21.6% 05/11/04 135,534 76,987 58,547 27.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercials were much more active in the e-mini S&P contracts, reducing their shorts slightly and dramatically increasing longs, flipping to net long for the first time in at least 4 weeks. Small traders took the other side of the trade, reducing longs and increasing their net short position. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 04/20/04 275,985 355,555 (79,570) (10.1%) 04/27/04 291,365 370,549 (79,184) (12.0%) 05/04/04 316,840 370,781 (53,941) ( 7.8%) 05/11/04 378,696 362,887 15,809 2.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 04/20/04 186,799 69,137 117,662 46.0% 04/27/04 175,788 69,613 106,175 43.3% 05/04/04 119,308 74,407 44,901 23.2% 05/11/04 101,199 94,408 6,791 3.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercials added slightly to their net short position, while small traders reduced both shorts and longs but favoring the long side, reducing their overall net short position. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 04/20/04 54,852 35,964 18,888 20.8% 04/27/04 54,196 33,948 20,248 23.0% 05/04/04 56,931 35,209 21,722 23.6% 05/11/04 57,680 37,410 20,270 21.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 21,722 - 05/04/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 04/20/04 8,538 19,431 (10,893) (39.0%) 04/27/04 9,008 20,347 (11,339) (38.6%) 05/04/04 10,247 24,764 (14,517) (41.5%) 05/11/04 9,716 21,072 (11,356) (36.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (14,517) - 05/04/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercials increased their net long position, while small traders took the other side of the trade, increasing longs and reducing shorts. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 04/20/04 24,156 22,009 2,147 4.7% 04/27/04 23,676 22,009 1,667 3.6% 05/04/04 24,296 22,181 2,115 4.6% 05/11/04 22,614 21,507 1,107 2.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 04/20/04 5,997 9,631 (3,634) (23.3%) 04/27/04 5,998 8,868 (2,870) (19.3%) 05/04/04 6,262 8,155 (1,893) ( 9.2%) 05/11/04 7,009 7,640 ( 631) ( 4.3%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 05-18-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: None Closed Plays: FCX Stock Splits: EWBC, NARA, PNM, ZLC Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= None ================================================================= Closed Plays ================================================================= Freeport McMoran - FCX - cls: 29.79 chng: +1.20 stop: 29.75 As noted over the weekend, we were growing concerned about whether FCX really had any more downside in store without putting in a credible rebound. To protect open positions, we suggested lowering stops to just above the 10-dma (now at $29.21), which had proved to be stiff resistance throughout the recent decline. Sure enough, that average turned back the bulls on Monday, but they came back strong today, driving FCX right through to its best level in over a week. This rebound may turn out to be just another bearish entry point, but we're happy to have captured a piece of the slide lower and be on the sidelines, especially with the strength of the late-afternoon move. Picked on April 25th at $32.59 Change since picked -2.80 Earnings Date 4/20/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 3.41 mln ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- EWBC banks on a 2-for-1 split in the form of a dividend East West Bancorp Inc (NASDAQ:EWBC) announced before today's trading session that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for- 1 stock split of its common shares, in the form of a 10 percent cash dividend. The payable date for the stock split is June 20th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of June 3rd. On a post-split basis, EWBC will have approximately 50.3 million shares outstanding. About the company: East West Bancorp is a publicly owned company, with $4.6 billion in assets, whose stock is traded on the Nasdaq National Market under the symbol "EWBC". The company's wholly owned subsidiary, East West Bank, is the fourth largest independent commercial bank headquartered in Los Angeles. East West Bank serves the community with 40 locations throughout Los Angeles, Orange, San Francisco, Alameda, Santa Clara, and San Mateo counties and a Beijing Representative Office in China. It is also one of the largest financial institutions in the nation focusing on the Chinese- American community. For more information on East West Bancorp, visit the company's website at www.eastwestbank.com. --- NARA banks on a 2-for-1 split in the form of a dividend Nara Bancorp, Inc (NASDAQ:NARA) announced before today's trading session that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares, in the form of a 10 percent cash dividend. The payable date for the stock split is June 15th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of May 31st. Each shareholder will receive a dividend of one additional share of NARA for each share owned. About the company: Nara Bancorp, Inc. is the parent company of Nara Bank, N.A. which was founded in 1989. Nara Bank is a full-service commercial bank headquartered in Los Angeles with twenty-five branches and loan production offices in the United States, and one representative office in Seoul, Korea. Nara Bank operates full-service branches in California and New York, with loan production offices in California, Washington, Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, New Jersey and Virginia. Nara Bank was founded specifically to serve the needs of Korean-Americans, one of the fastest growing Asian ethnic communities over the past decade. Presently, Nara Bank serves a diverse group of customers mirroring its communities. Nara Bank specializes in core business banking products for small and medium-sized companies with emphasis in commercial real estate and business lending, SBA lending and international trade financing. Nara Bank is a member of the FDIC and an Equal Opportunity Lender. For more information on Nara Bank, please call our Los Angeles office at 213-639-1700, our New York office at 212-279-2790, or visit our website at www.narabank.com. Nara Bancorp, Inc. stock is listed on Nasdaq under the symbol "NARA". --- PNM energizes shares with a 3-for-2 stock split Before today's opening bell PNM Resources (NYSE:PNM) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its common shares. The payable date for the stock split is June 11th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of June 1st. Shares will resume trading on a split-adjusted basis on June 14th. About the company: PNM Resources is an energy holding company based in Albuquerque, New Mexico. PNM, the principal subsidiary of PNM Resources, serves about 460,000 natural gas customers and 400,000 electric customers in New Mexico. The company also sells power on the wholesale market in the Western U.S. PNM Resources stock is traded primarily on the NYSE under the symbol PNM. For more information about our company, see our Web site at www.PNM.com. --- Zale's announces 2-for-1 stock split Zale's (NYSE:ZLC) announced before the opening bell today that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. The payable date for the stock split is June 8th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of May 28th. About the company: Zale Corporation is North America's largest specialty retailer of fine jewelry operating approximately 2,220 retail locations throughout the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico, as well as online. Zale Corporation's brands include Zales Jewelers, Zales Outlet, Zale Direct at www.zales.com, Gordon's Jewelers, Bailey Banks & Biddle Fine Jewelers, Peoples Jewellers, Mappins Jewellers and Piercing Pagoda. Additional information on Zale Corporation and its brands is available on the Internet at www.zalecorp.com. ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BUD Anheuser-Busch Cos Inc 51.82 +0.60 TLM Talisman Energy Inc 60.48 +1.08 KIM Kimco Realty Corp 41.53 +0.55 KMRT Kmart Holding Corp 48.62 +4.32 AVB Avalonbay Communities 51.87 +0.71 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- None --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- IMCL Imclone Systems Inc 74.00 +2.64 NE Noble Corp 35.15 +1.10 IVX IVAX Corp 23.99 +1.39 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- CAH Cardinal Health Inc 69.20 -4.24 MLEA Millea Holdings Inc (ADR) 56.00 -5.50 SNP China Petro & Chem (ADS) 32.08 -2.86 OMC Omnicom Group Inc 78.63 -1.40 PX Praxair Inc 34.93 -1.34 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- LLTC Linear Technology Corp 36.67 -0.85 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.
Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.
To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "firstname.lastname@example.org"
Option Investor Inc