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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 05/23/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 05-23-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Bullish Signs Appearing?
Market Sentiment: Investors Still Cautious
Watch List: DTG, TYC, EL, CNXT

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 5-21         WE 5-14         WE 5-07         WE 4-30
DOW     9966.74 - 46.13 10012.9 -104.47 10117.3 -108.23 -247.27
Nasdaq  1912.09 +  7.84 1904.25 - 13.71 1917.96 -  2.19 -129.62
S&P-100  534.33 -  1.14  535.47 -  1.88  537.35 -  3.53 - 15.92
S&P-500 1093.56 -  2.10 1095.66 -  3.03 1098.69 -  8.61 - 33.30
W5000  10625.10 -  9.61 10634.7 - 51.33 10686.0 -107.62 -356.76
SOX      458.18 +  7.19  450.99 -  6.02  457.01 + 13.52 - 44.50
RUT      545.81 +  2.05  543.76 -  4.80  548.56 - 11.24 - 30.91
TRAN    2861.75 + 12.86 2848.89 +  2.71 2846.18 - 40.26 -115.27
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

It may be far too soon to make any definite bullish predictions
but there are some signs that there may be a bounce ahead. With
the very low volume the last several days it would be tough to
apply much validity to improving technicals but they are there
just the same. It could be that the bears are just getting
tired more than the bulls staging a rebound but next week
should supply the answers.

S&P-500 Chart – Daily


Dow Chart – Daily


Nasdaq Chart – Daily


SOX Chart - 90min



The only economic report for Friday was the Internet Commerce
Sales for Q1 and at $15.52 billion it was the second highest
quarter on record and a +28% jump over last year. Sales only
dipped -$2B from the record holiday sales in the 4Q. This is
a very strong confirmation that the Internet is not only here
to stay but picking up speed and acceptance by consumers.

We need to shift some of those Internet sales back into tech
stocks which posted their sixteenth straight week of outflows
from tech funds. Overall fund outflows eased to a negative
outflow of only $600 million for the week ended Wednesday.
This was far less than I expected and far less than the
-$2.5B outflows for the prior week. Considering the drop by
the Dow to the lows for the year at 9852 on Wednesday a week
ago I had thought the outflows would increase. Chalk up one
point for a potential bounce ahead.

Oil prices fell again as OPEC prepared to meet this weekend
in Amsterdam to discuss raising production quotas. Saudi
Arabia Oil Minster Ali al-Naimi said he would ask OPEC to
raise production quotas by more than two million barrels per
day. Saudi wants to knock prices down below $40 to prevent
long term damage to oil demand. As long as prices are high
the sales outlook for gas guzzlers drops sharply. Automakers
and consumers revert back to high mileage vehicles. This does
produce a longer term lessening of demand and eventually it
lowers oil prices. With oil prices high companies begin to
explore alternate energy sources for new plants. Again, the
long term demand then declines. With prices high the demand
for new domestic drilling as well as drilling in non OPEC
countries skyrockets. This brings on new supply and depresses
the prices OPEC receives. OPEC wants to keep the prices in
the sweet spot where demand and prices are balanced and they
control the cash register. They have to raise production
targets this weekend to prevent these things from taking
place. Wal-Mart said on Friday that customers in their
survey were losing $7 per person per week in buying power
due to high oil prices. Falling oil prices ahead? Chalk up
another point for a potential bounce.

The Fed is going out of their way to press the point that
rates will only rise if the economy rises. This seems to
point to a Fed that is not sure the economy has risen to
the level where a rate hike is necessary. The bond market
has already priced in several hikes as well as the stock
market. If those hikes were to be pushed later into the
year then the market may be under priced. Bernanke hammered
this point home once again as did McTeer with their "rate
of increases dependent on the economy" comments. Fed fund
futures are now showing only a 94% chance of a rate hike
in June. Cracks are beginning to show in the prior premise
that it was guaranteed. They are however still predicting
a 25 point hike in August. A potentially friendlier Fed?
Chalk up another point for a potential bounce.

Volume for the past week has been very light despite some
rather big swings. For three of the last four days up
volume was significantly above down volume despite the
failure of a bounce to hold. Over the last four days up
volume accounted for 8.7B shares compared to only 5.3B on
the down side. New 52-week lows have fallen to only 167 on
Friday compared to 1181 on the big drop on May 10th. Friday
had the fewest 52-week lows since April 22nd. Improving
internals? Chalk up one more reason.

For the last two weeks the markets have plateaued at support
across all the varied indexes. The SPX came to a dead stop
at the 200dma at 1080 last week and tested it on three
separate days. For the last four days the SPX support has
risen to 1090 and it has defended it very aggressively.
The SOX appeared to make a low the first week of May at 435
and has been making progressively higher highs and lows ever
since. We are not seeing a charging bull in the SOX but more
of creeping support now in the 455 range. The very strong
Book-to-Bill report Thursday night should provide additional
support for the semi sector.

The major indexes all seem to have found a support level
that they can defend. The Wilshire-5000 defended 10500 last
week and 10600 this week. The Nasdaq defended 1880 last week
but upped the ante to 1900 this week. The $BKX.x banking
index hit a low of 90.62 on May 10th and has been moving
progressively higher for two weeks and closed right at a
two week high on Friday. If financials are back can the
other sectors be far behind? This outlook is not without
its problem child. The Dow has been defending 9900 for the
last two weeks but is showing little signs of mounting a
real rally. Because of the very narrow representation in
the 30-stock Dow I am giving it less weight in light of
the improvement in the broader indexes. Support that can't
be broken? Chalk up another point in favor of a rebound
attempt.

Three times last week the markets tried to produce a rally.
Three times they failed but the low for the week was on
Monday. There are buyers coming back into the market as
evidenced by the 50% higher up volume than down. The real
problem was simply overhead supply waiting for any rebound
attempt. Eventually that supply has to be depleted. There
is also a chance the rallies failed (or were caused) by
option expiration activity. There was huge open interest
in the index options and ETFs and hedge funds with billions
under management can push low volume markets around like
leaves in a tornado. Program trading for the week was 50.5%
of total volume. This is NOT arbitrage programs that just
key on fair value discrepancies as they only came to 13.8%
of the total. These are programs triggered by very big
players with one thing in mind and that is getting in or
out of positions in a hurry. Considering the low volume
and the amount of program trading and the extremely high
option open interest I think the fact we did NOT break
support is bullish. Chalk up another point.

GE is being bought. The low print for GE was Monday's open
and it was all up from there. The gap open on Wednesday was
hit hard by that monster sell program Wednesday afternoon
but Friday saw those losses almost erased. GE has fought
for support at $30 for the last month. Five times that
support was broken intraday and each time it was quickly
bought. Monday was the last time it traded under $30. If
GE, the proxy for the economy, has successfully defended
$30 for the last time and is being bought then can a real
rally be that far away? Get the chalk again.

Throughout this commentary we have been making points in
chalk, not permanent marker. While there are some serious
yet subtle signs of a potential rebound there are still
some problem areas. The Dow is one of those areas. Several
stocks in the Dow are spiraling into rapidly lower lows.
For instance, GM, PFE, VZ, UTX, C, MO, CAT and MCD to name
a few. They are offset by some of the others like HD, INTC
and AXP that have strong uptrends in place but it will still
be the weaker index.

There are still some negatives in our future and they include
the Iraq turnover and the FOMC on June-30th. You have the
FBI issuing new warnings about suicide bombers in the U.S.
and attacks a multiple McDonalds abroad. The election will
continue to be a producer of uncertainty but Bush appears
to be weathering the storm. CNBC did a survey of 28 market
analysts and all 28 said the market favored a Bush victory
over Kerry. Assuming there are no new surprises like the
Iraq prisoner abuse and oil prices do moderate I think
traders will begin to ignore the election risk. That leaves
us with the normal summer doldrums ahead and the earnings
warnings in June just before the Fed meeting. There is
still a rocky road to be traveled but most of the risk
is still a month away.

Just because there may be another rebound in our future
does not mean it will stick. We saw what happened to a
couple +100 point moves last week. They evaporated as
quickly as they appeared. For the Dow the 10050 resistance
appears solid but a strong break there could trigger
substantial short covering with initial higher resistance
not until 10200 then 10300. That would be a huge rebound
and I would be surprised if that is in the cards for next
week. If we could just get over 10100 I would be pleased.
The Nasdaq has strong resistance at 1935-1960 and a move
over 1960 would be a strong move.

The key point is not that there might be a rebound attempt
in our immediate future but that it may be too early to
expect it to succeed. The lack of any real selling pressure
last week may have just been a pause for option expiration
or a pause in hopes we do get a real bounce they can sell
into. You just never know until it happens. The SPX 200dma
is still intact at 1081 and still the line in the sand that
any rebound will be built on. Should that line fail we could
easily see Dow 9600.

I would also remind everyone that our biggest drops lately
have been on external events like the change in the Indian
government. These things can never be predicted and will
pop up when they can do the most harm. Always keep your
stops in place whether long or short the market. Monday
after option expiration is not normally a strong day in
either direction as there is too much settling in progress
to enter new trades. This produces somewhat higher volume
but on both sides of the ledger. If my speculation is
correct and we do get a rebound attempt next week I would
watch prior resistance levels very carefully for signs of
weakness. If sellers are still waiting overhead then don't
fight it. If we do fail again and our current support levels
are retested (9900/1880/1080) I would not hesitate to buy
the dip but be prepared for a potential support failure.
One more test could just be a strong bottom forming but a
failed test could produce a significant drop.

I received an email this week that said essentially "don't
take both sides, are we going up or down?" I seriously do
not think I take both sides. I do paint the picture for
both sides so everyone can understand the pros and cons of
the current market. However, I think I have been explicit
in telling you to "sell the rallies" for several weeks.
Last Tuesday was the first time I recommended a neutral
position because I saw support strengthening. Of course
Wednesday was a monster rally that should have been sold
again. Hindsight is always 20:20. Okay, to avoid confusion
for Monday and using the SPX as a guide, buy a bounce from
1080 and sell a failure at 1120. Under 1080 begins a new
leg down. The game plan is simple. I hope everybody is
now on the same page.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Investors Still Cautious
- J. Brown

May has been a tough month for the markets but most of the pain
all happened in the first week.  The last couple of weeks have
been generally sideways and if you're a chart reader one might
suspect that we could have a new bottom in place.  At least
that's the train of thought if you're an optimist.  Bears might
say that the last two weeks are merely a consolidation of the
previous declines before we see more.  After all May is the first
month in the "worst six months" of the year theory.

Fueling the rally this past Friday were two issues.  Oil and the
Fed.  Oil lifted the markets because OPEC was meeting informally
in Amsterdam on Saturday and the Saudi minister had already
suggested that OPEC raise production by 2 million barrels a day
to ease demand and price issues.  Jim offers a good explanation
in the weekend wrap on why it's important that OPEC should curb
these record high prices so I won't go into detail.  It's
important to the stock market because oil prices and record gas
prices are taking a huge toll on our economy at the consumer
level.  Two-thirds of our GDP is based on consumer spending and
right now Americans are forking over a lot of cash to fill up
their cars everyday.  Wal-mart (WMT) went so far as to quantify
the damage as $7 per week per WMT customer is being lost to
higher gas prices.  The bad news is that OPEC's informal meeting
didn't offer any decisions and they did not discuss the Saudi
proposal to raise output.  That's going to be a wet blanket on
the markets come Monday.  OPEC meets formally on June 3rd in
Beirut.

The Fed helped ease some market concerns when a couple of the
Federal Reserve governors issued calming comments late this week
suggesting that a rate hike isn't necessarily imminent.  Their
focus now seems to be that they'll hike rates if the economy
continues to improve and only if it continues to improve.  Now
given the positive economic data over the past few months most
still believe that a rate hike before the November election is a
guarantee but the question is by how much will the FOMC raise
rates.  There is a growing camp that believes the Fed is "behind
the curve" which would force them to hike rates faster and higher
than we might expect.  Furthermore the recent comments creates a
stronger focus on the next round of economic data as Wall Street
ponders how each report may or may not influence monetary policy.

Speaking of economic reports next week is full of them.  Monday
is empty but Tuesday offers the Consumer Confidence numbers.
Wednesday the durable goods orders.  Thursday brings the
preliminary GDP while Friday unveils the Michigan Sentiment and
Chicago PMI and that's not even the complete list of reports due
out next week.  However, it's also noteworthy to mention that the
President is expected to offer a prime-time speech on Iraq this
Monday but I'm not sure how that will affect investor sentiment.
In the mean time the ongoing geo-political risk (a.k.a. terrorism
threat) is an underlying concern that will only heat up and sap
the strength in any market rally as we approach the June 30th
Iraq handover.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8540
Current     :  9966

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9979
 50-dma: 10257
200-dma: 10041




S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  927
Current     : 1093

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1091
 50-dma: 1117
200-dma: 1082



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1123
Current     : 1408

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1402
 50-dma: 1435
200-dma: 1420




-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 18.49 -0.18
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 19.16 -0.20
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 24.90 -0.64


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.21        868,694       973,948
Equity Only    0.81        661,326       534,158
OEX            1.41         82,978       117,042
QQQ            0.71        101,300        71,859


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          61.9    + 0     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    30.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   66.7    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       58.8    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       61.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed



Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.21
10-dma: 1.11
21-dma: 1.17
55-dma: 1.15


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1865      1931
Decliners     933      1081

New Highs      31        58
New Lows       45        64

Up Volume   1024M      973M
Down Vol.    501M      316M

Total Vol.  1544M     1345M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/18/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercial traders remain net short and seem to be increasing
their bearish sentiment.  Small traders are net bullish and in
mirror-like fashion are growing more bullish compared to the
big traders.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
04/27/04      406,927   416,244   ( 9,317)   (1.1%)
05/04/04      397,964   417,175   (19,211)   (2.4%)
05/11/04      401,365   421,672   (20,307)   (2.5%)
05/18/04      394,352   423,258   (28,906)   (3.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/27/04      133,775    90,535    43,240    19.3%
05/04/04      137,112    80,201    56,911    21.6%
05/11/04      135,534    76,987    58,547    27.5%
05/18/04      139,647    74,597    65,050    30.4%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

The four-week trend for the commercial traders has been a bullish
one as they increase their long positions.  Meanwhile the small
traders have been busy shuffling money around and reducing their
long and short positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
04/27/04      291,365   370,549    (79,184)  (12.0%)
05/04/04      316,840   370,781    (53,941)  ( 7.8%)
05/11/04      378,696   362,887     15,809     2.1%
05/18/04      390,484   357,157     33,327     4.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/27/04      175,788     69,613   106,175    43.3%
05/04/04      119,308     74,407    44,901    23.2%
05/11/04      101,199     94,408     6,791     3.5%
05/18/04       62,216     87,269    25,053    16.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There continues to be very little movement in the commercial
traders' positions.  Small traders have reduced their short
positions somewhat.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/20/04       54,852     35,964    18,888   20.8%
04/27/04       54,196     33,948    20,248   23.0%
05/04/04       56,931     35,209    21,722   23.6%
05/18/04       58,376     37,528    20,848   21.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  21,722   - 05/04/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
04/27/04        9,008    20,347   (11,339)  (38.6%)
05/04/04       10,247    24,764   (14,517)  (41.5%)
05/11/04        9,716    21,072   (11,356)  (36.9%)
05/18/04        9,843    18,935   ( 9,092)  (31.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (14,517) - 05/04/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The dead heat between longs and shorts for the commercial
traders has grown even thinner.  Small traders have moved
from net bearish to net bullish on the Industrials.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
04/27/04       23,676    22,009    1,667       3.6%
05/04/04       24,296    22,181    2,115       4.6%
05/11/04       22,614    21,507    1,107       2.5%
05/18/04       22,257    22,444   (  187)     (0.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
04/27/04        5,998     8,868   (2,870)   (19.3%)
05/04/04        6,262     8,155   (1,893)   ( 9.2%)
05/11/04        7,009     7,640   (  631)   ( 4.3%)
05/18/04        9,098     6,591    2,507     16.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------


Dollar Thrifty Auto - DTG - close: 24.70 change: +0.40

WHAT TO WATCH: Whether you call them channeling stocks or rolling
stocks they can be effective trading vehicles if you time your
entry and exit points.  DTG has been trading in a wide range from
$24 to $27.50 over the past several months and it's currently
near the lower boundary.  This is a buying opportunity to catch
the next bounce to $27.50 but use a good stop.  Should it
breakdown there is no reason you can't short it toward $22 or
$20.




---

Tyco Intl Ltd - TYC - close: 29.41 change: +0.41

WHAT TO WATCH: Most of the headlines for TYC involve its former
execs and their ongoing court battles but investors may want to
take another look.  The company's credit rating was recently
raised from junk back to investment grade and the stock has been
out performing the markets these past several days.  Look for a
breakout over resistance at $30.00 or its highs at $30.25 before
evaluating any new bullish positions.




---

Estee Lauder - EL - close: 44.34 change: +0.37

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of EL have been a very steady performer for
the bulls over the last several months.  Currently they have
pulled back toward the bottom of their rising channel and this
may be an entry point.  Recent weakness may be due to the Estee
family trust selling 11.3 million shares for some estate taxes
but that could be behind the stock now.  Look for a move back
above the $45 level as a potential entry point for new bullish
positions.




---

Conexant Systems - CNXT - close: 4.17 change: +0.42

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of this chip stock have been under steady
selling pressure since its April 26th earnings report.  CNXT has
been cut in half from its March highs and lost a third of its
market cap from its earnings announcement through this past
Thursday but that could be ready to change.  Morgan Stanley just
put an "over weight" on the stock and a $6 price target calling
CNXT a value play in the sector.  Traders responded with an 11%
gain in the stock price.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

TASR $28.09 -0.42 - TASR has been an extremely volatile and
dangerous stock to play and we urge caution on traders
considering positions.  Right now we think aggressive players may
want to be looking at bearish strategies now that TASR is under
the $30 level.  We'd target a quick move to the $25 area.

MXO $6.50 -0.16 - MXO is a hard disk maker that has been in a
long-term down trend and doesn't show any signs of stopping.  The
recent consolidation between 6.50 and 7.00 may be ready to end
with the stock pointing lower.

ARDI $8.03 +0.17 - ARDI might be worth doing some due diligence
on to see if the recent bottom at $7.00 is a worthy buying
opportunity.


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 05-23-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates: NXTP
  Bearish Play Updates: JNPR

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bullish Plays: IGT
  New Bearish Plays: TARO
  Bearish Play Updates: IP, ENZN

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play Updates: MAGS, VRSN

Stock Splits
  Announcements: FBMT


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Nextel Partners - NXTP - close: 14.88 change: -0.47 stop: 13.75

After narrowly avoiding tripping our stop early on Monday morning,
NXTP put in an impressive run through the middle of the week,
soaring above $15 and it looked like we might be looking at a real
breakout ahead of the weekend.  On any normal week, that might have
occurred, but with Friday being options expiration, the stock
sagged back to slightly under that $15 level on Friday.  That said,
all signs still point to a pending breakout, with the midweek rally
coming on expanding volume and Friday's drop coming on very light
volume.  Traders that took advantage of the dip below $14 to enter
the play look to be in good shape here and the next likely setup
for new entries will be on a breakout to new recent highs above
$15.75.  Once above that level of resistance, we can look for a
serious move towards next resistance at $17.  We'll maintain our
stop at $13.75 until NXTP breaks out.

Picked on May 9th at        $15.38
Change since picked          -0.50
Earnings Date              4/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.23 mln





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 20.45 change: +0.25 stop: 22.05*new*

Wasting no time, JNPR gapped down on Monday morning, satisfying our
entry trigger in the process.  Unfortunately, the stock gapped
right through the trigger, denying us the opportunity at the ideal
breakdown entry.  But with the midweek rally attempt, the stock
came right up to kiss the 10-dma ($21.20) on Wednesday, posting an
intraday high of $21.75 early in the session.  The resulting
rollover provided a great entry point for those seeking a rollover.
Another test of the 10-dma on Thursday provided yet another
opportunity to enter the play early in the day before the bears had
their way.  Now we need to see some follow-through with a breakdown
below JNPR taking out the recent low of $19.83.  Momentum traders
will want to enter on a trade under $19.75, which will give us
reassurance that the stock is headed towards next support at $18,
also our target for the play.  Note that we've lowered our stop to
$22.05.  This is above the top of last Wednesday's failed rally
attempt, and should be above the 20-dma ($22.30) by Monday.

Picked on May 12th at       $20.92
Change since picked          -0.47
Earnings Date              4/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    12.5 mln





==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Intl Game Tech. - IGT - close: 39.32 chg: +0.73 stop: 37.50

Company Description:
IGT (www.IGT.com) is a world leader in the design, development and
manufacture of microprocessor-based gaming and lottery products and
software systems in all jurisdictions where gaming and lotteries
are legal. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
A quick glance at IGT's chart and you can't help but notice the
massive drop in late April.  The move was a reaction to IGT's
earnings report, which was inline with expectations.  Investors
decided it was time to take some money off the table after months
of steady gains.  IGT is a dominant player in its field (slot
machines) and we think this looks like a buying opportunity,
especially now that IGT appears to have put in a bottom at $36.00.
On Thursday Moody's placed IGT's credit rating under review for a
possible upgrade.  According to their press release IGT's improved
debt protection measures, debt repayment and higher earnings and
cash flow are all factors.

Currently IGT has resistance at its 100-dma (39.65) and the $40.00
level.  We're going to use a TRIGGER to open this play at $40.05.
If we're triggered we'll use a stop loss at $37.50.  Our initial
target is the $45.00 level but IGT does have some technical
resistance at its 40 & 50-dma's near $41.50 and price resistance
near $43.



Annotated Chart:



Picked on May xx at $00.00 <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:  + 0.00
Earnings Date     04/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.3 million





  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Taro Pharmaceuticals - TARO - cls: 41.41 chg: -1.03 stop: 43.60

Company Description:
Taro develops, manufactures, and markets high-quality generic and
branded pharmaceuticals, both prescription and over-the-counter,
used by patients in dozens of countries around the world.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
On your mark.  Get set.  Go!  TARO's stock looks like it's in its
runner's crouch before it sprints lower again.  The stock was
hammered back in April after missing earnings by 18 cents.
Investors did not approve and the stock gapped down from $62 to
close at $45 the next day.  The bounce has never materialized and
after a month of consolidation those traders who were looking for
some sort of upside retracement are likely to give up and cash out,
especially if TARO breaks under its April low.  We think TARO's P&F
chart is noteworthy. The chart is obviously bearish and it has
already met its downside target.  Actually it has exceeded it.  The
recent consolidation had built what appeared to be a bullish
formation but the recent drop has killed that pattern and produced
a fresh sell signal.

We think TARO can breakdown through support at $41.00 and $40.00
and trade into the mid-30's if given the chance.  We're going to
use a TRIGGER at $40.94 to open the play for us.  Until TARO trades
at or below this level we're willing to sit out.  Once triggered
our stop will be $43.60, near its 10-dma.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on May xx at $00.00 <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:  - 0.00
Earnings Date     04/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  485 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

International Paper - IP - cls: 40.65 chng: +0.38 stp: 41.50*new*

While it hasn't fallen lower yet, our new IP play is certainly
giving us ample opportunity for entries on these failed bounces
near the 200-dma ($40.91).  That average is providing firm
resistance to this oversold rebound and with the daily Stochastics
now firmly in overbought and threatening to roll over, it shouldn't
be long before the stock tips over an begins the expected move
towards the recent lows at $38.  Reinforcing overhead resistance,
we have the 50-dma ($41.21) and the 30-dma (now at $40.96).  That
certainly makes entries near the $41 level look inviting for new
positions.  Also factoring in our favor is the fact that IP is on a
PnF Sell signal with a $35 target.  The stock is unlikely to make a
rapid move lower, but slow and steady will do the trick too.  With
so much resistance just overhead, a break through would definitely
be a bad sign.  So we're going to err on the side of caution here
and tighten our stop to $41.50, a level that shouldn't be traded if
the downside potential is real.

Picked on May 19th at       $40.25
Change since picked          +0.40
Earnings Date              4/23/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.87 mln





Enzon Pharma. - ENZN - close: 14.24 change: +0.23 stop: 15.15*new*

Wednesday gave us the drop through support we were looking for.
ENZN fell through the bottom of its bearish triangle at the $14.00
level to hit our trigger at $13.95 and things looks good with a
close at $13.93.  The next day (Thurday) ENZN traded all the way
back to $14.47 before closing at $14.01, which suddenly made the
previous day's drop look like a potential bear trap.  Friday really
got our nerves jumpy with the gap higher but the rally failed
despite the good news that produced.  Friday morning ENZN and
partner Index Pharmaceuticals announced that the FDA has accepted
their new drug application for their Onco TCS treatment.  The FDA
plans to complete their review by January 15, 2005.  The Onco drug
is designed to treat patients with relapsed aggressive non-
Hodgkin's lymphoma previously treated with at least two combination
chemotherapy regimens (source: press release).  We're encouraged
that the rally failed but traders probably ought to wait for ENZN
to trade back under the $14.00 level before considering new
positions.  We're lowering our stop loss to $15.15.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on May 19 at $13.95
Gain since picked:  + 0.29
Earnings Date     05/06/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  727 thousand





==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================


============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Magal Security - MAGS - cls: 15.28 chng: +1.51 stop: 13.25*new*

Now that's more like it!  Whether due to actual demand for the
stock or option expiration antics, MAGS made a strong upward move
on Friday, tacking on nearly 11% on strong volume.  Dialing down to
the hourly chart, we can see that the early move pushed the stock
through the top of its neutral wedge pattern, which was good for
suggesting it was time for momentum entries.  MAGS spent the
balance of the session drifting lower along the top of that broken
wedge line and then the buyers took control in the final hour,
succeeding in putting in a strong finish.  This wedge breakout
looks very encouraging, but there are still a couple obstacles in
the way of a strong rally.  First up are the intraday highs just
under $16 and then the May 5th high of $16.60.  Another strong
performance should see both of those potential resistance levels
broken and will have us then turning our attention to a run at $18
and then the 50-dma just over $19.  Throughout last week, there was
a floor in the stock near the $13.40 level, so we're going to get a
bit more aggressive with our stop, raising it to $13.25 this
weekend.  A drop through that level would take out the lower
boundary of the now-broken wedge and would be a very bearish sign.

Picked on May 5th at        $15.04
Change since picked          +0.24
Earnings Date              4/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.52 mln




Verisign Inc. - VRSN - cls: 17.75 chng: +0.09 stop: 17.00*new*

Although it has made some serious attempts at a breakout, VRSN
hasn't been able to sustain any of those bullish attempts.  The
long upper weeks on several of the recent daily candles suggests
that there's little bullish conviction, while the fact that VRSN is
holding above the 20-dma ($17.47) and the rising month-long
trendline suggests no urge to sell.  We'll need to see a break of
the current consolidation range to know which way the stock is
likely to move next.  As we've noted in the past week, support is
strong now in the vicinity of $17.50 and we're still in favor of
buying rebounds from this support area.  It is really no great
surprise that VRSN gravitated towards this strong support level on
Friday, as the usual options expiration antics played out.  While
nowhere near oversold territory, the daily Stochastics are hinting
at a bullish short-cycle reversal, and we should get that verdict
early next week.  With the risk of VRSN breaking its recent bullish
trend, we're tightening our stop to $17.10 this weekend, which is
well below current support and would represent a break of the 30-
dma ($17.10).  Conservative traders may want to consider exits on
another failure near the $19 level, while the more aggressive
strategy will have us holding on for a run up to the $20 resistance
level.

Picked on May 5th at        $17.40
Change since picked          +0.35
Earnings Date              4/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.47 mln






==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

FBMT declares 3-for-2 split


During the early hours of Friday's trading session First National
Bancshares (NASDAQ:FBMT) announced that its Board of Directors has
approved a 3-for-2 stock split of its common stock.

The split to be paid in the form of a stock dividend will be
payable on June 30th, 2004 to shareholders of record on June 1st.


About the company:
1st National Bank & Trust is a subsidiary of First National
Bancshares. The bank has five retail offices in Manatee County and
a Loan Production Office in Sarasota. In addition, the Bank also
provides Trust, Investments, and Financial Planning services in
Bradenton, Venice, and Leesburg, FL. First National Bancshares is
located in Bradenton, Florida.  (source: company press release)



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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.






PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 05-23-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of May 3rd, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of May 3rd
==========================================

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

CPB    Campbell Soup         Mon, May 24  Before the Bell     0.32
DY     Dycom Industries      Mon, May 24  After the Bell      0.23
MDT    Medtronic Inc.        Mon, May 24  4:15 pm ET          0.46
NOVL   Novell, Inc.          Mon, May 24  After the Bell      0.03


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

CPRT   Copart                Tue, May 25  After the Bell      0.21
EASI   Engineered Support SysTue, May 25  Before the Bell     0.64
HNZ    H.J. Heinz Company    Tue, May 25  Before the Bell     0.58
HUG    Hughes Supply         Tue, May 25  After the Bell      0.92
KKD    Krispy Kreme Doughnut Tue, May 25  Before the Bell     0.24
LZB    La-Z-Boy Inc.         Tue, May 25  -----N/A-----       0.43
SPI    ScottishPower         Tue, May 25  Before the Bell      N/A
SMTC   Semtech               Tue, May 25  During the Market   0.18
TKA    Telekom Austria AG    Tue, May 25  Before the Bell      N/A
TTC    Toro                  Tue, May 25  Before the Bell     1.83
VOD    Vodafone Group Public Tue, May 25  Before the Bell      N/A
WSM    Williams-Sonoma       Tue, May 25  Before the Bell     0.16


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

AZO    AutoZone Inc.         Wed, May 26  Before the Bell    1.55
BMO    Bank Of Montreal      Wed, May 26  -----N/A-----       N/A
BCM    Canadian Impl Bank ComWed, May 26  -----N/A-----       N/A
DLTR   Dollar Tree Stores    Wed, May 26  After the Bell     0.29
DCI    Donaldson             Wed, May 26  After the Bell     0.31
MIK    Michaels Stores       Wed, May 26  After the Bell     0.37
NDSN   Nordson               Wed, May 26  Before the Bell    0.41
RL     Polo Ralph Lauren CorpWed, May 26  Before the Bell    0.78
TECD   Tech Data Corporation Wed, May 26  After the Bell     0.49
TOL    Toll Brothers         Wed, May 26  -----N/A-----      0.87


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

BFb    Brown-Forman Corp     Thu, May 27  After the Bell       N/A
CHS    Chico's FAS           Thu, May 27  After the Bell      0.39
COST   Costco Wholesale Corp Thu, May 27  Before the Bell     0.38
DG     Dollar General Corp.  Thu, May 27  -----N/A-----       0.20
FLO    Flowers Foods         Thu, May 27  Before the Bell     0.35
OTE    Hellenic Telecomm     Thu, May 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
PFP    Prem Farnell Plc (ADR)Thu, May 27  Before the Bell      N/A
RY     ROYAL BK CDA MONTREAL Thu, May 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
TKP    Technip               Thu, May 27  Before the Bell      N/A
TD     Toronto Dominion Bank Thu, May 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
VIP    Vimpel Communications Thu, May 27  -----N/A-----        N/A
V      Vivendi Universal     Thu, May 27  -----N/A-----        N/A


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

RDY    Dr. Reddy's Labs      Fri, May 28  -----N/A-----        N/A


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

CCNE    CNB Financial Corp        5:2      May  21st   May  24th
FBTC    First BancTrust Corp      2:1      May  21st   May  24th
ASBC    Associated Banc-Corp      3:2      May  21st   May  24th
SONC    Sonic Corp                3:2      May  21st   May  24th
RCI     Renal Care Group, Inc     3:2      May  24th   May  25th
BMRC    Bank of Marin             3:2      May  24th   May  25th
BFCF    BFC Financial Corp        5:4      May  25th   May  26th
ESCA    Escalade, Inc             2:1      May  25th   May  26th
ANN     AnnTaylor Stores Corp     3:2      May  26th   May  27th
ERES    eResearchTechnology, Inc  3:2      May  27th   May  28th
KIND    Kindred Healthcare, Inc   2:1      May  27th   May  28th
IEX     IDEX Corp                 3:2      May  28th   May  31st
CEDC    Central European Dist     3:2      May  28th   May  31st
QCRH    QCR Holdings, Inc         3:2      May  28th   May  31st
CNQ     Canadian Natural Res Lmtd 2:1      May  28th   May  31st
PVTB    PrivateBancorp, Inc       2:1      May  31st   Apr   1st
BNN     Brascan Corp              3:2      May  31st   Apr   1st
GSBC    Great Southern Bancorp    2:1      Apr   1st   Apr   2nd
BR      Burlington Resources      2:1      Apr   1st   Apr   2nd
FNLC    First Natl Lincoln Corp   3:1      Apr   1st   Apr   2nd


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Wall Street will focus on economic data again as this week
brings forth a basket of reports.  Some of the more important releases
this week are the Consumer Confidence report, durable orders,
help wanted index, Michigan Sentiment and the Chicago PMI.

==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 05/24/04
----------------
None


-----------------
Tuesday, 05/25/04
-----------------
Consumer Confidence (DM)   May  Forecast:    94.0  Previous:     92.9
Existing Home Sales (DM)   Apr  Forecast:   6.48M  Previous:    6.48M


-------------------
Wednesday, 05/26/04
-------------------
Durable Orders (BB)        Apr  Forecast:   -0.8%  Previous:    -5.0%
New Home Sales (DM)        Apr  Forecast:   1200K  Previous:    1228K


------------------
Thursday, 05/27/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      05/22  Forecast:    334K  Previous:     345K
GDP-Prel. (BB)              Q1  Forecast:    4.5%  Previous:     4.2%
Chain Deflator-Prel (BB)    Q1  Forecast:    2.5%  Previous:     2.5%
Help-Wanted Index (DM)     Apr  Forecast:      41  Previous:       39


----------------
Friday, 05/28/04
----------------
Personal Income (BB)       Apr  Forecast:    0.5%  Previous:     0.4%
Personal Spending (BB)     Apr  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.4%
Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM)   May  Forecast:    94.6  Previous:     94.2
Chicago PMI (DM)           May  Forecast:    62.4  Previous:     63.9


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             90.50    +0.69
NTT     Nippon Tel & Tel (ADS)     24.52    +0.72
HBC     HSBC Holdings Plc          70.84    +0.72
PTR     Petrochina Co Ltd (ADS)    44.38    +0.83
DCM     NTT De Co Mo (ADR)         17.96    +0.57
UBS     UBS Ag. Ord. Shares        70.86    +0.51


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

NKTR    Nektar Therapeutics        18.13    +1.57
ANPI    Angiotech Pharmaceutical   19.51    +1.07

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

WM      Washington Mutual Inc      43.20    +3.55
BRCM    Broadcom Corp CI A         40.75    +2.42
JWN     Nordstrom Inc              39.90    +2.67
MRVL    Marvell Technology Group   44.09    +4.26
SNPS    Synopsys Inc               29.72    +1.45


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MDT     Medtronic Inc              47.66    -1.24
FRX     Forest Laboratories Inc    59.20    -1.63
CMI     Cummins Inc                54.68    -1.80


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SDS     Sungard Data System Inc    26.18    -0.24
MYL     Mylan Laboratories         22.71    -0.76
BPOP    Popular Inc                42.25    -0.41



=================================================================
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





DISCLAIMER

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