PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 05-25-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Russell Leads the Way Watch List: Market Sentiment: Blast Off! ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 05-25-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10117.62 +159.19 10121.67 9915.86 1.84 bln 2410/ 478 NASDAQ 1964.65 + 41.67 1966.68 1913.73 1.73 bln 2216/ 850 S&P 100 542.39 + 8.35 542.72 531.57 Totals 4626/1328 S&P 500 1113.05 + 17.64 1113.80 1090.74 RUS 2000 565.39 + 13.67 565.43 550.16 DJ TRANS 2931.95 + 66.59 2934.22 2856.11 VIX 15.96 - 2.12 18.42 15.73 VXO 15.91 - 2.40 19.21 15.63 VXN 22.04 - 2.29 24.82 21.62 Total Volume 4,012M Total UpVol 3,476M Total DnVol 454M 52wk Highs 117 52wk Lows 125 TRIN 0.40 PUT/CALL 0.90 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Russell Leads the Way Linda Piazza While market participants focused on the Iraq situation, crude oil prices, the Consumer Sentiment and Existing Home Sales, the Russell 2000 was making a sneak assault on the top boundary of its nearly month-long rectangular congestion zone. That sneak assault led the way for other indices to challenge recent consolidation patterns, too. By the end of the day, the move had led to gains of 2.48 percent on the Russell 2000, 1.16 percent on the SPX, 2.17 percent on the Nasdaq, and 1.60 percent on the Dow, with those gains produced on moderate volume. Other volume patterns proved impressive, however, with the ratio of advancing to declining issues 28:6 on the NYSE and 23:9 on the Nasdaq. Up volume amounted to more than eight times down volume on the NYSE and seven times down volume on the Nasdaq. With crude oil futures closing at a record high on Monday, the stage had been set for a decline in overseas markets. Following network television's decision not to televise Bush's speech live, articles discussing overseas market performance made little mention of Bush's five-point plan for achieving a stable, peaceful Iraq as a factor in trading decisions. Instead, those articles focused on the likely impact of increasing oil prices. The Nikkei followed through on the promised declines, falling 138.71 points or 1.25 percent to close below the psychologically important 11,000 at 10,962.93. With concerns that oil prices would restrict economic growth and Germany's much-watched IFO Index easing in May, European markets gapped lower, too, but then treaded water near their opening levels. Stagnating consumer demand continues to impact expectations in Germany, with higher oil prices being mentioned along with escalating health-care costs as negative factors. Some took heart from the increase in the expectations component of that index, however. Our futures reacted by falling throughout the night, beginning a labored climb about 6:30 am EST, perhaps about the time that it was clear that European markets would steady rather than tumble precipitously. The dollar weakened and fixed income markets throughout the globe stabilized. Yields for the benchmark Ten- Year Treasury Note opened lower, followed by early weakness in equity markets. Most indices fell toward their morning lows just ahead of and as May's Consumer Confidence and April's Existing Home Sales numbers were released at 10:00 am EST. Expectations for May's Consumer Confidence had ranged from 93-94 with a prior number at 92.9. The expectations component of the consumer confidence number, 60 percent of the total index, rose from 94.8 to 95.2, with the present-situation component falling from 90.4 to 90.3. The 93.2 Consumer Confidence number was variously hailed as meeting expectations and being lower than expectations, depending on the news source. Survey results listed rising gasoline prices, a mixed employment outlook, and the growing Iraq scandal as pressures on confidence levels. UBS issued a report last Friday that speculated that the rising oil costs could trim $35 billion from after-tax income this year if those higher costs continue. Goldman Sachs believes consumer confidence and presidential approval ratings to be strongly linked, and Bush's approval rating has dipped as the Iraq situation intensifies. All agreed on whether the existing home sales number met or beat expectations, with that number surprising to the upside. The 6.64 million sales figure was the second highest on record according to the National Association of Realtors. Consensus expectations had been for a decrease to 6.41 million from March's 6.48 million sales, although I'd read forecasts that ranged from 6.40-6.48 million. Some theorize that potential homebuyers rushed to get into homes as interest rates rose, fearing higher interest rates to come, making that bump higher a temporary one. Perhaps predictably, the homebuilders saw some of the strongest gains, with the $DJUSHB, the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index, gaining 4.90 percent in Tuesday's trading. The SPX, Dow and Nasdaq reacted variously to those numbers and a concurrent dip in crude oil futures by steadying a few minutes or dipping to a slightly lower low. The Russell 2000, however, just steepened the climb that it had begun at Tuesday's open when it broke above the consolidation zone in which it had been confined since May 7. Annotated 60-Minute Chart of the Russell 2000: After closing above its 200-dma on Monday, the Russell charged above that consolidation zone and important 60-minute averages at the open, pausing only to absorb the impact of the economic numbers before steepening that climb. Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000: As can be observed on the Russell 2000's daily chart, recent gains produced a bullish cross in the MACD, but from below signal, and broke the stochastics above the signal line. Shorter-term 5(3)3 stochastics (not shown), however, have already cycled far toward levels indicating short-term overbought conditions, with that stochastics level being approached as the Russell 2000 approaches horizontal resistance, the upside target of its 60-minute rectangular consolidation band, the 50-dma, and one version of a descending trendline off recent highs. While today's impressive gains can not be minimized, especially as they created a new P&F double-top breakout signal with an upside target of 630, neither should that impressive resistance be minimized. This move can not be called bullish with certainty until it retraces more than 50 percent of the recent decline. If the Russell 2000 can break above the 572 level, it should next test the 100-dma and then the 595-600 range if it can climb above the 100-dma. If the Russell 2000 led the way, did the other indices follow? Most major indices produced breakouts, with the SPX being one of those indices. Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX: The SPX has been particularly important to watch as its tests of the 200-sma have prompted recent bounce attempts. While some other indices, most notably the OEX, appeared more bearish because of continual closes below their 200-dma's, the SPX's closes above that important moving average coupled with the bullish divergence on its daily chart signaled a warning to those thinking bearishly. Today's action saw the MACD produce a bullish cross, but from below signal. Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq: If the Russell 2000's close above its 200-sma Monday predicted that it was breaking out of its recent congestion zone, the Nasdaq's close above its 200-ema Monday may have been doing the same. Especially with tech-related indices, I like to watch the -ema as well as the -sma, and this viewpoint shows the OEX scrambling above that moving average Monday, finding support at it on Tuesday's morning dip, and then climbing strongly from that average. As with many other indices, MACD produced a bullish cross but from below signal. The 21(3)3 stochastics have moved up through the signal line. The shorter-term 5(3)3's (not shown) have already cycled far toward levels indicating overbought conditions as the Nasdaq heads up to test its 50-dma, the psychologically important 2000, and then perhaps its 100-dma and the descending trendline off the year's high, depending on whether it can surmount each succeeding level or gets turned back. It's possible to draw several versions of a triangle on the Nasdaq's chart, and the possible formation I've drawn on this one proves less neutral than a symmetrical triangle. The chart reveals that the Nasdaq is perhaps just rising within that formation that consists of a flat bottom and a series of lower highs. That presumes the formation of another lower high, but it was also possible to draw a triangle with an ascending lower trendline, the neutral version of a triangle. The coordination of the MACD bottoms with the price bottoms within the flat- bottomed structure hint that it may be the correct one. I've included a neutral triangle (ascending bottom support) and a bearish one (flat bottom) on the Dow's chart, although here an interpretation of the formation as a bearish right triangle seems a stretch. Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow: The Dow's chart (using the DJX as a proxy) has produced bullish price/MACD divergence, too. As with the other indices, the MACD bullish cross was produced from below signal, and prices head straight up into moving-average, horizontal and trendline resistance. Dow 10,200-10,300 registers as important known historical resistance as well as the location of the 30- and 50- dma's and the former supporting trendline from the Dow's neutral triangle. Weekly charts show these indices trying to steady at first important weekly support, while weekly 21(3)3 stochastics attempt bullish crosses, completed only on the COMPX and without a move up through the signal line on that index. On all, RSI hooks up within a roughly descending formation. Weekly MACD has not turned up on any of the above indices. What does it all mean? Earlier in the week, I had speculated that indices might make a run higher this week into the June 3 official OPEC meeting in a kind of buy-the-rumor move. Yesterday's climb by crude oil futures spoiled that effect, with Jane Fox of the OIN Market Monitor perhaps pinpointing one reason behind that climb. It was perhaps produced at least in part by a safety shutdown at a Royal Dutch/Shell Oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico, with that shutdown cutting the oil supply by 150,000 barrels a day. With some statements about an optimum price being $30/barrel producing Tuesday's pullback in crude prices, we then saw the expected run higher, a run into resistance. That continued inverse relationship between oil prices and equity behavior gives me pause about predicting whether the indices will be able to push above their next approaching resistance levels. Crude oil prices have been consolidating above the benchmark $40.00, with these moves higher and lower occurring within a consolidation zone roughly between $40.00 and $42.00. Moves within a consolidation zone prove difficult to predict. Daily oscillators for crude oil head lower . . . or did, until stochastics turned higher again on Tuesday, refusing to fall below the signal line. The other factor giving me pause relates to economic releases Wednesday, with one of those releases being the Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories at 10:30. In this climate, that number might be watched more closely than in the past, with further declines producing a move higher in the crude futures. We're beginning to see earnings reports and business and consumer confidence numbers being impacted by crude oil costs, such as Germany's IFO Index and our Consumer Confidence Index. Headlines for articles discussing airline stocks mention fuel surcharges, but the airliners aren't the only entities affected by those high crude prices. Articles today about eurozone movers and shakers included notations that chemical firms such as BASF and Bayer had been notable decliners in early trading today, attributing those declines to crude oil costs. The best I can say is that I think indices will attempt continued bounces into resistance as long as crude prices consolidate or show an inclination to decline into the June 3 OPEX meeting. However, if Wednesday's inventory numbers concern market watchers or some global geopolitical event heightens worries and send crude oil higher again, markets appear vulnerable to a downturn below resistance. Whether indices can break above upper descending trendlines remains in question at this time and may depend in part on OPEC's decision. If we do get a buy-the-rumor continued run higher, then even a beneficial decision by OPEC might result in a sell-the-rumor effect, especially as some doubt how much production can be increased. When we're considering what's likely to happen, however, we shouldn't ignore the collapse in volatility today. The collapse was huge, almost mirroring the March 10 one-day gain in volatility. The collapse turned the VIX back into the 15.75- 16.75 range that has been a recent axis of gyrations for the VIX and elicited intrigue about who knows what. Is China going to announce a decrease in demand that will uncouple the inverse relationship of oil and equities? Will Russia reveal that it will complete its pipelines sooner than expected and be able to supply the world's needs? Who knows something and what is it that's known? It's not the actual number that proved so startling, since that's within that recent axis, but the precipitous drop. As far as I can ascertain, Tuesday produced the biggest one-day drop in the VXO since the reformulation of the VIX. A continued drop in the VIX produces an enigma for market watchers who remember the old "when VIX is low, it's time to go" axiom, coupled with the usual advice about selling stocks in May. We've watched the VIX go lower and lower, reaching new multi-year low after new multi-year low with only to-be-expected pullbacks resulting, so how low is low? Other economic reports due Wednesday include the 8:30 release of April's Durable Goods Orders, with expectations anything from a flat number to a 0.8 percent decrease. March's number stood at 5 percent and March's Durable Goods Orders minus transportation at 5.4 percent. This release by the Census Bureau often proves market-moving even though it can be volatile. Non-defense capital goods can be a much-watched component of this number since it gives insight into business investment component of the GDP. Market watchers will want to see gains, if any result, be broad based rather than isolated in a particular sector. Other economic releases include April's New Homes Sales at 10:00 EST and the already mentioned Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories at 10:30. Homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) also reports before the bell. Like other indices, the $DJUSHB's gain today sent it up into resistance, and market watchers want to see TOL announce results that reassure the dip buyers that the made the right decision. Keep an eye on the Russell 2000 and crude oil prices tomorrow as guides to likely action, and be careful around the time of these economic releases. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Blast Off! Brown Shoe Company, Inc. - BWS - close: 41.32 change: +0.83 WHAT TO WATCH: Remember a couple weeks ago when we looked at BWS as a potential breakout candidate? Well, the stock made good on that promise yesterday with its first-ever close over the $40 level and added to those gains on increasing volume today. While aggressive traders could consider chasing the stock higher from here in anticipation of a run towards the $45 level, our preference would be to be a bit more patient, looking for pullback entries on a dip near the $39.50-40.00 area. --- Airtran Holdings Inc. - AAI - close: 14.08 change: +0.61 WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of AAI spent the tail end of last week putting the finishing touches on its lop-sided H&S bottom formation, with just a hint of a breakout coming as Friday's close was just over the down-sloping neckline. Yesterday's strength confirmed that breakout, but was held back by the 200- dma. Helped by the broad market strength though, AAI blasted through that resistance today and is on the verge of another breakout. Look to play the upside on a breakout over the $14.25 January high, targeting a rise to strong resistance near $16. --- Southwest Airlines Inc. - LUV - close: 15.76 change: +0.49 WHAT TO WATCH: If at first you don't succeed, try again. LUV's first attempt at a breakout over the $15.30 resistance level failed, sending the stock back down towards the $13.50 support zone. Despite the record high fuel prices, the stock has been rallying strongly over the past couple weeks and today broke out on strong volume, posting its best close since early January. This looks like a serious rally underway, although there is the risk of resistance near the 200-dma. Rather than entering on strength, the better strategy appears to be on a slight pullback to confirm the $15.25 level as new-found support. --- CVS Corp. - CVS - close: 41.15 change: +1.17 WHAT TO WATCH: After spending the past couple weeks consolidating its early May drop, shares of CVS came roaring back today, climbing back over the $41 level and posting its best close since the middle of 2001. This looks like a great setup for a breakout play. Trigger entries on a move over $41.40 and target an upside move to next resistance at $45. --- =================== On the RADAR Screen =================== AUO $23.35 - Is the profit taking finally over? It certainly looks that way for shares of AUO, as the stock has now broken above the 50-dma and all the shorter moving averages, moving beyond the short-term downtrend. This sets the stage for a run back at the April highs near $28. Entries look favorable on a breakout over today's high, but even better on a dip and successful test of the 50-dma as new support. Target an initial move to $26 resistance before setting sights on the April highs. AOC $26.95 - After spending the first couple weeks of May building support just over the $25 level, AOC began to show signs of life late last week, moving back over the 100-dma. Today's broad market strength lent further lift to the stock, pushing through the early May highs and coming to rest just under the 50- dma. Use a trigger at $27.25 and look for a rally back towards the March/April highs near $29. WMB $11.94 - Natural Gas stocks had quite a day, participating in the broad market rally. Shares of WMB broke out in a big way, smashing former resistance at $11.50 and closing at a nearly 2- year high. Following the broad consolidation of the past several months, this looks like a great point to look for a longer-term bullish position. Look to initiate positions on a successful test of support in the $11.25-11.50 area, looking for a rally first to the $15 level and then towards major resistance at $20. Note that the PnF bullish price target is currently $18. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Oil Slides, Stocks Geyser - J. Brown It is interesting how the market seems to focus on one main concern. A few weeks ago it was interest rates. Before that it was jobs. Right now it's oil. Monday saw oil shoot to an all- time high at $41.72 a barrel despite news that Saudi Arabia would up production to soothe demand and rising prices. Today oil slips 58 cents and the markets rejoice with a very broad-based rally that left no one behind. Every major sector index closed in the green with very heavy buying in tech stocks and previously interest rate sensitive items like homebuilders. Boosting investors confidence today was a better than expected existing home sales numbers, which is a strong sign for the economy since home sales tend to boost demand for household products. Also on the economic front today was consumer confidence, which edged up 0.2 percent to 93.2. The markets could also be reacting to President Bush's speech last night that clearly outlined America's plan to exit the conflict in Iraq. The fact that we now have a plan and a timetable should have eased fears that we'll be trapped there forever. Of course the President did say we have tough days ahead of us as insurgents and terrorists step up their activities ahead of the June 30th handover. Here at home we have mounting concerns with elevated terrorist "chatter" about a potential attack during the Olympics in Greece, the Democratic and Republican conventions this summer and the U.S. elections in November. For the time being "geo-political risk" will remain an underlying worry but today investors managed to forget them. Market internals were very bullish with advancing stocks outnumbering decliners almost 6-to-1 on the NYSE and 11-to-4 on the NASDAQ. Up volume was more than eight times down volume on the NYSE and more than seven times down volume on the NASDAQ. Volatility indices took major tumbles back toward their April lows. We've been expecting a potential rally this week (see this weekend's market wrap) and we've finally got one. The Dow's breakout over 10,100 and its 200-dma is very encouraging as is the NASDAQ's close over its own 200-dma. Tomorrow brings us the April durable goods order and the new home sales numbers. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 8540 Current : 10117 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9986 50-dma: 10252 200-dma: 10050 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 927 Current : 1113 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1094 50-dma: 1116 200-dma: 1083 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1123 Current : 1447 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1407 50-dma: 1435 200-dma: 1422 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.96 -2.12 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 15.91 -2.40 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 22.04 -2.29 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.90 829,079 748,788 Equity Only 0.69 648,742 448,555 OEX 1.00 25,434 25,328 QQQ 0.50 56,017 28,098 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 62.4 + 1 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 33.0 + 3 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 66.7 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 58.4 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 61.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.91 10-dma: 1.14 21-dma: 1.06 55-dma: 1.08 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 2410 2216 Decliners 478 850 New Highs 67 78 New Lows 27 37 Up Volume 1597M 1511M Down Vol. 192M 209M Total Vol. 1841M 1734M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 05/04/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders remain net short and seem to be increasing their bearish sentiment. Small traders are net bullish and in mirror-like fashion are growing more bullish compared to the big traders. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 04/27/04 406,927 416,244 ( 9,317) (1.1%) 05/04/04 397,964 417,175 (19,211) (2.4%) 05/11/04 401,365 421,672 (20,307) (2.5%) 05/18/04 394,352 423,258 (28,906) (3.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 04/27/04 133,775 90,535 43,240 19.3% 05/04/04 137,112 80,201 56,911 21.6% 05/11/04 135,534 76,987 58,547 27.5% 05/18/04 139,647 74,597 65,050 30.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 The four-week trend for the commercial traders has been a bullish one as they increase their long positions. Meanwhile the small traders have been busy shuffling money around and reducing their long and short positions. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 04/27/04 291,365 370,549 (79,184) (12.0%) 05/04/04 316,840 370,781 (53,941) ( 7.8%) 05/11/04 378,696 362,887 15,809 2.1% 05/18/04 390,484 357,157 33,327 4.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 04/27/04 175,788 69,613 106,175 43.3% 05/04/04 119,308 74,407 44,901 23.2% 05/11/04 101,199 94,408 6,791 3.5% 05/18/04 62,216 87,269 25,053 16.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 There continues to be very little movement in the commercial traders' positions. Small traders have reduced their short positions somewhat. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 04/20/04 54,852 35,964 18,888 20.8% 04/27/04 54,196 33,948 20,248 23.0% 05/04/04 56,931 35,209 21,722 23.6% 05/18/04 58,376 37,528 20,848 21.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 21,722 - 05/04/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 04/27/04 9,008 20,347 (11,339) (38.6%) 05/04/04 10,247 24,764 (14,517) (41.5%) 05/11/04 9,716 21,072 (11,356) (36.9%) 05/18/04 9,843 18,935 ( 9,092) (31.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (14,517) - 05/04/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL The dead heat between longs and shorts for the commercial traders has grown even thinner. Small traders have moved from net bearish to net bullish on the Industrials. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 04/27/04 23,676 22,009 1,667 3.6% 05/04/04 24,296 22,181 2,115 4.6% 05/11/04 22,614 21,507 1,107 2.5% 05/18/04 22,257 22,444 ( 187) (0.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 04/27/04 5,998 8,868 (2,870) (19.3%) 05/04/04 6,262 8,155 (1,893) ( 9.2%) 05/11/04 7,009 7,640 ( 631) ( 4.3%) 05/18/04 9,098 6,591 2,507 16.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. 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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 05-25-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: None Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= None ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change SI Siemens Aktien 70.52 +1.07 UBS UBS Ag. 72.54 +0.78 PTR Petrochina Co Ltd 46.69 +0.61 HBC HSBC Holdings 72.43 +1.35 WB Wachovia 47.47 +0.82 AIG American Intl Group 72.00 +2.20 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- HUM Humana Inc 17.14 +1.49 SWFT Swift Transport 18.71 +3.08 NNI Nelnet Inc 19.49 +1.19 VCLK ValueClick Inc 11.23 +1.15 FFBC First Financial Bancorp 17.43 +1.26 LFB Longview Fibre Co 12.38 +1.45 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- ITW Illinois Tool Works 90.25 +1.85 CNA CNA Financial 29.36 +1.33 PHM Pulte Homes 52.46 +2.71 MRBK Mercantile Bankshares 46.15 +1.02 TOL Toll Brothers Inc 41.31 +2.23 TTC Toro Co 62.39 +4.36 TSO Tesoro Petroleum 24.12 +1.83 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- WYE Wyeth 34.67 -2.64 BOBE Bob Evans Farms 25.67 -2.73 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- .none.. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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