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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 06/06/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 06-06-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       D Day For Bulls
Market Sentiment:  Lights Are Green
Watch List:        Retail to Cards to Internet

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 6-04         WE 5-28         WE 5-21         WE 5-14
DOW    10242.82 + 54.37 10188.5 +221.71 9966.74 - 46.13 -104.47
Nasdaq  1978.62 -  8.12 1986.74 + 74.65 1912.09 +  7.84 - 13.71
S&P-100  547.08 +  1.95  545.13 + 10.80  534.33 -  1.14 -  1.88
S&P-500 1122.50 +  1.86 1120.64 + 27.08 1093.56 -  2.10 -  3.03
W5000  10936.31 +  9.95 10926.4 +301.26 10625.1 -  9.61 - 51.33
SOX      470.91 - 17.95  488.86 + 30.68  458.18 +  7.19 -  6.02
RUT      567.75 -   .53  568.28 + 22.47  545.81 +  2.05 -  4.80
TRAN    2992.28 + 44.27 2948.01 + 82.26 2861.75 + 12.86 +  2.71
WE = week ending
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

D Day For Bulls
by Jim Brown

With the bears hunkered down in their bunkers wondering what
happened to their reinforcements the bulls are gaining in
strength on a daily basis. Next week could see the bulls
storming the trading floor and putting the bears into full
retreat. The stars are aligning and the storm clouds are
disappearing. Monday could be a decisive day for the bulls
to attack.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


Russell Chart - Daily


SPX Chart - Daily



It was a report made in heaven for the bulls. The Jobs report
showed that the economy gained +248,000 payroll jobs in May
and like the Goldilocks porridge it was just right. It was
not too low and not too high and the jobs gained were in the
right places. The headline number was about +25K over the
consensus estimates and not enough to energize the Fed into
a rate hike frenzy. The good news came in the form of upward
revisions to the prior two months for an additional +74,000
jobs. Over the past three months 75.4% of industries have
added workers. Over the same three months nearly one million
jobs have been created and this could go a long way to help
consumer sentiment and election rhetoric.

This was the third excellent report in a row and there was
no bad news. There were 32,000 new manufacturing jobs added
in a sector that has been decimated. Average earnings rose
and 173,000 of the new jobs were in positions making over
$16 per hour. This quiets the claims that all new jobs are
Wal-Mart or McDonalds quality and shows the depth of the
recovery. Too bullish for you? Me too but that was what the
airwaves were blasting all day. Bullish sentiment was simply
oozing out of every news report.

The bad news, what there was of it, came in a serious jump
in the Fed funds futures. The futures are now showing a +75
point hike by the August meeting. There is only one meeting
between now and the August 10th meeting and that is on June
30th. According to the futures there is a 10% chance of the
50-point hike being in June and a 30% chance it will be in
August. We can expect those numbers to vacillate greatly as
the month progresses. Just as the debate heated up on Friday
we had a speech by Fed Governor Kohn on "The Outlook for
Inflation". A very timely topic in view of the coming Fed
rate hike series.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040604/default.htm

The net of his speech is that the Fed still believes that
the inflation monster is still slumbering despite the recent
rapid jump in some indicators. Kohn said the Fed believes the
jump in inflation was simply due to a rebound from abnormally
low inflation over the last year. The rebound merely put the
standard inflation rate back into sync with an expanding
economy. He said while the Fed will remain cautious they still
believe there is sufficient slack in the economy to prevent
inflation from rising significantly in the near future. That
said he did warn that the current Fed funds rate was too low
and the Fed would be raising soon but he echoed and emphasized
that there was no reason to rush the process and it will be
removed at a measured pace. Glad to see they all have the key
catch phrase firmly imbedded in their vocabulary. The bottom
line is calm in bond market despite a two week high in the
ten-year yields and calm in the stock market despite multiple
rate hikes ahead.

Just when you thought the stock market could not have any
better news oil prices closed at a five week low at $38.49.
The OPEC posturing and bad mouthing oil prices for the last
couple days has kicked the props from under the speculative
oil market. No longer are the ripe profits there for the
picking and traders are beginning to lighten up just in case
oil supplies begin to increase in July as OPEC promised. In
reality almost everyone I have heard claims OPEC is already
pumping the two million barrels they claim they will raise
production and there will not be any new oil coming to market.
Regardless, traders are being much more careful about long
positions in a falling market until some more details are
known. With oil closing today nearly -$4 under Tuesday's
levels the transports finally found a bid on the hopes the
oil crisis has passed.

To wrap the week we had favorable reports from Intel and PMCS
to help the chip sector along with an expanded growth outlook
from the Semiconductor Statistics group. The Intel mid qtr
update Thursday night came on the heels of three down days
for the sector. Friday's relief rally added +1.61% to the
SOX and we have the TXN mid quarter update on Monday. You
would think the positive chip news and rebounding Russell
would give the Nasdaq wings. Unfortunately it didn't and
the Nasdaq lost -8 points for the week. The Nasdaq appears
stuck on 1980 and has traded across that line, sometimes
multiple times for the last six days only to close at 1979
on Friday. What is up with that? The 50 dma is 1978 and it
is trying very hard to move above that level. We have traded
over 1990 six times only to fail each time. Resistance has
been tough as we approach 2000 and it only gets tougher as
we try to move higher.

The Dow however has moved continually higher for the week
and even succeeded in hitting 10300 on Friday after a four
week dip. Unlike the flat Nasdaq the Dow gained +54 points
for the week which may not sound like much but the trend
was definitely higher. Unfortunately there is monster
resistance at 10325 and any continued rally will face a
tough uphill battle but support is gradually rising.

There are no material economic reports next week until the
PPI and Consumer Confidence on Friday. Greenspan testifies
before the Senate on Thursday regarding his re-nomination.
This means we will trade almost the entire week on stock
news with the Thursday testimony the first real drag on
the bulls.

I started this article with commentary that next week could
see the bulls press the attack. Last Sunday I said this week
would likely be range bound and attempts to move higher would
fail until the Jobs report was history. Now that the numbers
are on the board and good news is breaking out all over the
bulls should be smelling greener grass ahead. Believe it or
not there are only four weeks left in the quarter and the
earnings cycle will begin again. We are moving into the
warning period for the 2Q and so far there has been almost
none. Estimates are still being raised and the economy does
appear to be picking up speed.

In any other year this would be the recipe for a rare summer
rally. The challenge is the convergence of events on June
30th. We have the Iraq changeover, FOMC meeting, the end
of the quarter and Russell rebalancing. It is also an
election year with the incumbent in trouble. Stir all these
ingredients together and you get a witches brew forecast.

This is how I read the road map. Oil prices are falling and
OPEC is going on the offensive on prices. Regardless of any
new production they appear committed to push the price down.
This is bullish for the market for multiple reasons. The
Iraq changeover has already been factored into the market.
At least the idea of the changeover has been accepted and
the optimists think that will be the end of the news. The
pessimists know better and fully expect an increasing number
of terrorist activities in Iraq as we near the date. I would
not be a potential government official in Iraq for any amount
of money. They are walking targets. While I think traders
have factored in the changeover they will still react to the
increasing attacks as the date approaches.

The FOMC meeting is a given. A 25-point increase has already
been factored in and to some extent there is already an
expectation for more. I am sure we will see some volatility
around the meeting but I cannot imagine an outcome that would
sour the market. If they did raise +50 and I doubt it for
political reasons, the market would just ratchet down its
expectations for August and proceed. The wild card that I
think will have the biggest impact on next week is the
election. Typically election summers tend to be positive
when the incumbent is ahead. The jobs numbers were very
positive for Bush and a serious blow for Kerry in terms
of political talking points. You can expect positive
comments and better poll numbers next week and that
should encourage the bulls.

This analysis suggests the bulls will TRY and press higher
but there is very strong resistance at 10325/2020/1130. The
ideal scenario would be a strong Asian/European performance
on Sunday night and a gap open for the U.S. markets on Monday
to these resistance levels or even higher. The overnight
futures can sometimes overcome resistance levels that cash
trading cannot. A futures gap at the open sometimes causes
short covering in the cash that will overcome sellers at
certain levels because they become less confident during
periods of high volatility. A slow creep up can be met and
measured over an extended period where a strong gap open
must be reacted to immediately or face strong losses. But,
that would be the ideal scenario not necessarily what will
come to pass.

However we get there any push to resistance will need some
serious volume to overcome those levels. Friday's volume
was barely three billion shares across all markets. We will
need a lot more conviction than that to breakout to a new
range. The more likely scenario is a slow chipping away at
resistance with spikes to new highs that are quickly sold
but a continued series of higher lows as support continues
to build. With no economic news and very little stock news
expected it could be another range bound week that resembles
trench warfare more than a cavalry charge.

I would normally say sell resistance here but with current
resistance so close and with support rising the bigger move
could come on the long side. I know moving higher will be
tough and we are not likely to breakout the first time but
I think the best plan is to buy the dips in anticipation
of a breakout. Dow 10200 has held for three days and 10150
for three days before that. Those would be my target levels
for any dips. The Nasdaq has such a narrow range for the
week that its support at 1970 is only 10 points below its
midpoint at 1980. I would hope for a lower dip but not
count on it. The key is event risk for next week. Any
negative events could provide an entry point and I would
not hesitate to take them. Just keep your stops tight on
the entry just in case our dip turns into more than just
a dip.

Don't be misled by my suggestion to buy the dips. Current
resistance is VERY strong. Look at the S&P and Dow charts
above for a very good visual picture. Moving higher will
be tough if not impossible but as long as support keeps
rising and the news continues to be good we have a chance.
We could also return to the bottom of the channel but there
is nothing on the horizon for Monday to provide that strong
of a dip. I think the risk is on the side of the bears and
the bulls are growing stronger. Hopefully the week will
prove that theory.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

Lights Are Green
- J. Brown

The streetlight is green but the market might just be spinning
its wheels.  Friday's rally was very widespread with only the OIX
oil index and the XNG natural gas index closing lower.  Market
internals were very bullish with advancing stocks beating
decliners by 2-to-1 on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Up volume
was more than 3 times down volume on both exchanges.  Despite all
the bullishness we didn't get very far.  The Dow is still under
10,300.  The NASDAQ has spent the last week and a half trying to
breakout over the 2000 level.  Positive news from OPEC, crude oil
under $39 a barrel, and a jobs report that was just right still
wasn't enough to fuel the move through resistance.

Don't get me wrong.  I'm not complaining but merely making an
observation.  We needed to hear the OPEC news and whether or not
their "extra" 2 million barrels a day will make a difference or
not the price of crude has fallen.  July futures for crude oil
are testing support at $38.00 and its simple 50-dma. Oil is
already down 9% from its closing highs.  Don't look now but it
could be due for a bounce.  However, should crude breakdown under
the $38 per barrel level it should be a big lift for stocks.

Investor sentiment should be pretty high.  The economy is on
track.  Oil prices are slipping.  Jobs are rising.  Corporate
profits are strong.  If these factors can sink in then we might
have a decent summer in front of us.  Holding us back are rising
terrorism concerns as we approach the June 30th handover in Iraq.
Closer to home the market might be a little nervous about
security surrounding the G8 summit in Georgia this week.

Next week's economic reports are not quite the market movers this
week's were.  The PPI and sentiment numbers at the end of the
week are probably the most important but Wall Street will still
be watching the wholesale inventories and import/export pricing
numbers.  We'll also hear from two fed governors this week.
Thomas Hoenig speaks on Wednesday and Jack Guynn talks on Friday
but both are liable to maintain their new mantra of slow and
easy.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8871
Current     : 10242

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10145
 50-dma: 10257
200-dma: 10081



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  962
Current     : 1122

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1114
 50-dma: 1118
200-dma: 1087



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1180
Current     : 1445

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1448
 50-dma: 1444
200-dma: 1429



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.78 -0.25
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 16.52 -0.77
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 23.84 -0.09


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.02        569,900       580,062
Equity Only    0.83        424,059       350,459
OEX            1.45         27,385        39,659
QQQ            3.05         45,241       137,780


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          64.8    + 0     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    38.0    + 0     BULL ALERT
Dow Indust.   66.7    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       61.6    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       62.0    + 1     Bear Confirmed



Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.08
10-dma: 0.88
21-dma: 1.00
55-dma: 1.07


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1873      1994
Decliners     911      1021

New Highs      60        62
New Lows       26        19

Up Volume   1018M     1048M
Down Vol.    315M      325M

Total Vol.  1344M     1389M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 06/01/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Action in the large S&P 500 futures contracts has been slow.
Commercial traders remain net short but the bearish interest has
been declining for two weeks now.  Small traders' positions are
virtually unchanged.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
05/11/04      401,365   421,672   (20,307)   (2.5%)
05/18/04      394,352   423,258   (28,906)   (3.5%)
05/25/04      400,713   420,764   (20,051)   (2.4%)
06/01/04      406,665   421,681   (15,016)   (1.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/11/04      135,534    76,987    58,547    27.5%
05/18/04      139,647    74,597    65,050    30.4%
05/25/04      136,086    79,060    57,026    26.5%
06/01/04      137,100    79,583    57,517    26.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Wow!  Commercial traders are completely undecided with a
dead heat between longs and shorts.  Meanwhile small traders
have turned bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
05/11/04      378,696   362,887     15,809     2.1%
05/18/04      390,484   357,157     33,327     4.5%
05/25/04      353,722   336,406     17,316     2.5%
06/01/04      325,865   325,274        591     0.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/11/04      101,199     94,408     6,791     3.5%
05/18/04       62,216     87,269    25,053    16.8%
05/25/04       91,515    100,759   ( 9,244)  ( 4.8%)
06/01/04      111,484     90,625    20,859    10.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders have hit new bullish extremes we've not
seen in many months.  Right on track small traders have hit
bearish extremes.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/04/04       56,931     35,209    21,722   23.6%
05/18/04       58,376     37,528    20,848   21.8%
05/25/04       59,891     37,630    22,261   22.8%
06/01/04       59,944     34,784    25,160   26.6%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
05/11/04        9,716    21,072   (11,356)  (36.9%)
05/18/04        9,843    18,935   ( 9,092)  (31.6%)
05/25/04       10,184    20,653   (10,469)  (33.9%)
06/01/04        9,755    30,025   (20,270)  (51.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Not much action going on here with the commercial traders.
They remain slightly bearish on the Dow.  Small traders are
growing more bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
05/11/04       22,614    21,507    1,107       2.5%
05/18/04       22,257    22,444   (  187)     (0.4%)
05/25/04       23,578    24,632   (1,045)     (2.2%)
06/01/04       23,397    24,393   (  996)     (2.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
05/11/04        7,009     7,640   (  631)   ( 4.3%)
05/18/04        9,098     6,591    2,507     16.0%
05/25/04        9,623     6,614    3,009     18.5%
06/01/04        9,000     6,021    2,979     19.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Retail to Cards to Internet

Sears Roebuck - S - close: 36.90 change: -0.23

WHAT TO WATCH: The retail index is near its all-time highs while
shares of Sears continue to slowly sink lower.  The recent action
in S would suggest the stock is ready for the next leg lower.
Its P&F chart is very bearish and points to a $29.00 price
target.  We might consider a breakdown under $36.50 as a
potential entry point for bearish plays.




---

Nordson Corp - NDSN - close: 38.63 change: +0.84

WHAT TO WATCH: Shares of NDSN have produced a huge rally in the
past two weeks and broken out through major resistance at $38.00-
38.25 to hit what appear to be new all-time highs.  The move also
produced a new triple-top breakout buy signal on its P&F chart.
The stock tends to move somewhat slowly so momentum traders may
want to wait and catch a move through the $40.00 level to confirm
the next leg higher.




---

Shuffle Master - SHFL - close: 36.52 change: +1.62

WHAT TO WATCH: Gambling stocks were on the rise Friday with a big
rally in MBG in reaction to its earnings report.  SHFL was lifted
in the wake of MBG's news and shares of SHFL closed at new all-
time highs.  Traders might want to wait for a dip back to $35.00
and buy a bounce.  Investors are not worried over news that SHLF
has fired its CEO for not reporting a recent arrest over a
domestic disturbance.




---

United Online - UNTD - close: 19.74 change: +0.39

WHAT TO WATCH: Internet service provider UNTD has floated higher
as the Internet sector turned in a strong rally over the past two
weeks.  UNTD's breakout over its 200-dma looks tempting but we're
going to watch it for a move through psychological round-number
resistance at $20.00.  The P&F chart is very bull-friendly with a
new ascending triple-top breakout through P&F resistance (and a
$24 price target).





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

CVD $36.80 +0.93 - The bullish trend in CVD has been slow and
steady for months.  Traders might want to consider buying a
breakout over $37.00 or waiting for another dip toward its 40-
dma.

OSK $53.48 +0.58 - Truck maker OSK has rallied strongly for two
weeks and broken through technical resistance at its 40 and 50-
dma's. Volume was above average on Friday's gain.

PIR $17.76 +0.07 - Retailer Pier One has broken down through
significant support at $18.00 and failed to rebound above it on
Friday's market rally.

WBSN $34.26 +2.29 - WBSN turned in a 7% gain on Friday and broke
through major resistance at $33.00 on massive volume.


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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter         Weekend Edition 06-06-2004
                                                   section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bullish Play Updates:  NXTP
  Bearish Play Updates:  ISIL, JNPR


Active Trader (Non-tech)
  New Bearish Plays:     CEC
  Bullish Play Updates:  AAI, JBLU, SBUX, IGT
  Bearish Play Updates:  ENZN


High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     RMBS
  Closed Bearish Plays:  NOVL


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
=================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Nextel Partners - NXTP - cls: 15.93 chng: +0.26 stop: 14.90

Continuing to lurch its way higher in "two steps forward and one
step back" fashion, NXTP stalled out last week at the $16.35
level before finally succumbing to selling pressure.  If the
stock follows its recent pattern again, we should expect to see
this retracement continue down near the 20-dma (currently $15.30)
before commencing the next upward leg.  Look for a pullback into
the $15.25-15.30 area followed by a rebound to offer the best
entry point.  Of course, breakout entries over last week's high
can still be considered, but make sure to weigh the risk to
reward of such a move, with our upside target only in the $17.50
area.  Maintain stops at $14.90, just under the rising trendline
connecting the last two relative lows.

Picked on May 9th at        $15.38
Change since picked          +0.55
Earnings Date              4/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.41 mln





  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Intersil Corp. - ISIL - cls: 20.04 chng: +0.32 stop: 21.55*new*

We stepped into our bearish Chip play on ISIL on Wednesday, right
after witnessing a near-perfect rollover right at the top of the
multi-month descending channel.  Underscoring the validity of
that pattern, the stock headed sharply lower on Thursday,
cracking the $20 level and the 20-dma ($19.95) in the process.  A
bit of a rebound emerged on Friday, but it didn't last, with the
stock falling back to close right on the 20-dma and at its low of
the day.  With all daily oscillators pointing south, this move
looks like it has room to run, with our $18 target looking quite
reasonable.  The next support will be found at $19, near the
center-line of the falling channel and then we ca look for a drop
to test the mid-May lows.  Optimum entries will still come on a
failed rebound near the 50-dma ($21.11) and the top of the
channel, but more realistically, we'll be looking for breakdown
entries below Thursday's intraday low.  Note that our stop has
been lowered to $21.55, just above the most recent swing hign.


Picked on June 2nd at       $20.65
Change since picked          -0.61
Earnings Date              4/21/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.36 mln




---

Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 19.91 change: -0.19 stop: 22.05

It looks like our patience is about to be rewarded on our JNPR
play as the rebound on May 25th has now completely failed.  After
rising to test the 20-dma ($21.10) on a couple of occasions, the
stock rolled over, broke back under the 10-dma ($20.67) and on
Friday closed under the key $20 level for only the second time
since early January.  Except for the intraday lows from mid-May
($19.83), there's not much in the way of support until the stock
reaches $18.  Another failed rebound between the 10-dma and 20-
dma can still be used for entry, while aggressive traders will
want to enter on the breakdown under $19.80.  Last week's drop in
the stock looks particularly bearish due to the fact that the
Networking index (NWX.X) really held its ground.  Maintain stops
at $22.05 for now, but once the stock breaks to new recent lows,
we'll look to trail that stop to just above the 20-dma.

Picked on May 12th at       $20.92
Change since picked          -1.01
Earnings Date              4/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    12.6 mln





=================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
=================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

CEC Entertainment - CEC - cls: 30.45 chg: +0.10 stop: 31.26

Company Description:
CEC Entertainment, Inc. operates a system of 470 Chuck E.
Cheese's restaurants in 48 states, of which 422 are owned and
operated by the Company. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
What's going on at Chuck E. Cheeses?  One would think that with
the economy on the mend that parents would be taking their kids
out to dinner more and we all know that this chain is a popular
spot for families.  CEC reported earnings in April that sent the
stock soaring for several days afterwards.  The results were
positive in spite of soaring cheese costs.  Unfortunately shares
of CEC have been discarded like an empty pizza box.  The selling
has been relatively slow and steady over the past several weeks
with CEC pausing to consolidate sideways above support at $30.00

CEC's P&F chart is currently bearish and looks vulnerable to more
profit taking with a $25 price target.  We feel the stock might
be a great short play but only if it breaks down under support at
$30.00.  We're going to use a TRIGGER at $29.95 and target $26.00
with an initial stop loss at $31.26.  Until CEC hits our trigger
we're just spectators.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on June X at $xx.xx <-- See TRIGGER
Gain since picked:  - 0.00
Earnings Date     04/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  338 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

AirTran Holdings - AAI - close: 14.25 change: +0.35 stop: 12.75

Despite getting off to a good start with its breakout over the
$14.25 level, our AAI play had a rather lackluster week, failing
to capitalize on that breakout.  Posting alternating positive and
negative days, the stock found support near the 10-dma ($13.85)
and the 200-dma ($13.72) on a couple occasions, but was unable to
even reach the $14.50 level on any of its intraday rally
attempts.  Oscillators are muddled, failing to provide any real
clarity, leaving us with little more than bullish potential for
next week.  Dips near the $13.50-13.75 area still look like
viable entry points, while momentum traders will want to see a
push over the $14.50 level before playing.  Once clear of that
obstacle, we can look for a rally to next resistance near $15.50,
enroute to strong resistance near $17.  With the 30-dma ($13.04)
now over $13, our $12.75 stop should be out of harm's way.

Picked on May 26th at       $13.87
Change since picked          +0.38
Earnings Date              4/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    1.44 mln




---

JetBlue Airways - JBLU - close: 28.07 change: -0.09 stop: 26.50

With the Airline sector (XAL.X) unable to capitalize on its
bullish move from Wednesday, it is no great surprise that our
JBLU play couldn't gain any altitude heading into the weekend.
After stalling just below $30 resistance, the stock drifted back
towards $28 support, which is reinforced by both the 390dma
($27.92) and the 20-dma ($27.65).  Not far below there we have
key support at both the 50-dma ($26.94) and the rising trendline
at $26.70, both of which are just over our $26.50 stop.  A
rebound from the $27.50 area looks like a solid entry ahead of a
breakout move over $30.  Traders looking to buy strength on that
breakout move will want to exercise caution, due to the fact that
the 200-dma ($30.55) is waiting just overhead and a real breakout
will need to more through that level as well.  Once through that
resistance, JBLU should be able to make a serious run at next
resistance near $34.  In order for a move with that kind of
strength to unfold, we'll need to see the XAL index break out
over $56 resistance, so momentum traders will need to see renewed
strength from the sector before playing.

Picked on June 2nd at       $29.42
Change since picked          -1.35
Earnings Date              4/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    1.87 mln




---

Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - cls: 41.36 chng: +0.16 stop: 39.00*new*

We initiated coverage on SBUX just in the nick of time, catching
the initial bullish move as the stock blasted through the top of
its multi-month range at $40.  Continued strength early last week
propelled the stock through $41 and almost to $42 before the
momentum began to wane, with most of the price action in the past
couple sessions confined to a narrow range near the stock's all-
time highs.  Things certainly look bullish from a price
standpoint, but with daily oscillators hinting at a bearish
rollover, we need to be prepared for a near-term retracement,
possibly to test the strong support near $40.  An entry on a
successful rebound from that level looks favorable, as does a
breakout now above $42, especially if accompanied by strong
volume.  If that $40 support fails, then we'll want to take a
quick exit from the play, hence our tightened stop at $39 this
weekend.

Picked on May 26th at       $39.67
Change since picked          +1.69
Earnings Date              7/21/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =    2.88 mln




---

Intl Game Tech. - IGT - close: 39.80 chg: -0.17 stop: 38.00 *new*

Believe it or not IGT is up 50 cents on the week.  While we
realize that's not what you'd call a stellar return it is
impressive compared to the weakness in the semiconductor sector
this week.  Yes, IGT is influenced by the chip sector and the
casino/gambling sector.  Now if you compare IGT's performance to
the action in Mandalay Resort (MBG) this week then IGT is a huge
laggard.  Of course those two companies are not quite in the same
business.  We continue to be cautious because IGT is still
struggling with resistance near $40.00 and its MACD could still
roll over under the zero line indicating a new leg lower.  We're
going to suggest that traders only consider new positions on a
breakout above $41.00 and or a bounce from $38.50.  Meanwhile
we're going to raise our stop loss to $38.00.  If IGT doesn't
start performing soon we may drop it and move on.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on May 25 at $40.05
Gain since picked:  - 0.25
Earnings Date     04/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  3.3 million




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Enzon Pharma. - ENZN - close: 14.00 change: +0.12 stop:
14.80*new*

As of Wednesday this past week we were ready to drop ENZN for
lack of performance.  Then suddenly shares fell sharply on
Thursday and closed under key support at $14.00.  The stock
bounced on Friday but failed several times at the $14.25 level.
The company issued a press release on Wednesday stating they
would be presenting a lot of material at the upcoming biotech
conference this week.  Normally this kind of news and the
upcoming conference would make us super cautious on short plays
as these conference tend to produce good news.  However, there
doesn't seem to be much pre-conference excitement in ENZN's stock
price.  We are going to lower our stop loss to the 40-dma near
$14.80.  More conservative traders might actually want to
consider placing their stops just north of $14.25.  If we don't
get some downside action soon in ENZN we will drop it and look
elsewhere to trade.  Fortunately, its technical picture has taken
a turn for the worse.  Keep an eye on its 200-dma near $13.21.
This could be the next support level.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on May 19 at $13.95
Gain since picked:  + 0.05
Earnings Date     05/06/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  727 thousand




=================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
=================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Rambus Inc - RMBS - close: 17.68 chg: +0.15 stop: 19.01

Company Description:
Rambus is one of the world's leading providers of advanced chip-
to-chip interface products and services. Since its founding in
1990, the company's innovations, breakthrough technologies and
integration expertise have helped industry-leading chip and
system companies solve their most challenging and complex I/O
problems and bring their products to market. Rambus's interface
solutions can be found in numerous computing, consumer, and
communications products and applications. Rambus is headquartered
in Los Altos, Calif., with regional offices in the United States,
Taiwan and Japan. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It is always a little dangerous to play RMBS.  The stock has a
tradition of volatility as it pursues and defends its patented
technology in both U.S. and world courts of law.  Recently RMBS
has been running into some snags with its litigation proceedings
and shares have plummeted.  The company also lost some patent
protection on one of its designs after the European patent office
revoked its patent.  The stock has been slowly consolidating
against support at $18.00 for five weeks and RMBS broke this
support on Thursday ahead of Intel's conference call.  RMBS did
bounce on Friday with the group but the bounce wasn't very strong
and it failed at the $18.00 level as old support becomes new
resistance.  The technical picture remains bearish and we think
RMBS can trade to the $15.00 level or lower.  Coincidentally its
P&F chart is very bearish with a price target of $0.00.
We're going to suggest positions at current levels with an
initial target of $15.00 support with a stop loss at $19.01.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on June 6 at $17.68
Gain since picked:  - 0.00
Earnings Date     04/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  1.7 million




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============

  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Novell Inc - NOVL - close: 8.45 change: +0.75 stop: 8.01

That didn't take long.  We added NOVL last weekend on its
breakdown below the $9.00 mark and its 200-dma.  Shares continued
to falter as investors rotated money out of chip stocks ahead of
Intel's mid-quarter update on Thursday.  Fears that Intel might
issue disappointing news reached a climax and NOVL dropped
strongly on Thursday closing at $7.70, under our first target of
$8.00.  In Thursday night's email we suggested readers take
profits and we lowered our stop loss to $8.01.  Then Intel held
their conference and the news was good.  This fueled a huge
rebound in the chip sector and NOVL gapped open at $8.10 and ran
back toward the $8.50 level.  We are stopped out at Friday's
opening trade of $8.10 for an 88-cent move.  Bears may want to
keep an eye on NOVL since its P&F chart is still bearish and the
price target has moved from $5.00 to $3.00.

Picked on May 30 at $ 8.98
Gain since picked:  - 0.53
Earnings Date     04/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:  5.4 million




=================================================================
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.






PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 06-06-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of May 7th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of June 7th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

BTH    Blyth Inc.            Mon, Jun 07  Before the Bell     0.38
UTIW   UTi Worldwide         Mon, Jun 07  Before the Bell     0.32


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

TTWO   Tk-Two Intract Sftwr  Tue, Jun 08  Before the Bell    -0.15


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

HRB    H&R Block, Inc.       Wed, Jun 09  After the Bell      3.16
MATK   Martek Biosci Corp    Wed, Jun 09  After the Bell      0.14
OVTI   Omnivision Tech       Wed, Jun 09  After the Bell      0.31
SIGY   Signet Group          Wed, Jun 09  -----N/A-----        N/A
SFD    Smithfield Foods      Wed, Jun 09  Before the Bell     0.51
TOM    Tommy Hilfiger        Wed, Jun 09  -----N/A-----       0.37


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

NSM    National Semicon      Thu, Jun 10  -----N/A-----       0.29
TKC    Trkcll Iltsm Hzmtlri  Thu, Jun 10  -----N/A-----       0.50


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

None


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

PCBC    Pacific Capital Bancorp   4:3      Jun   8th   Jun   9th
ZLC     Zales                     2:1      Jun   8th   Jun   9th
MOGN    MGI Pharma Inc            2:1      Jun   9th   Jun  10th
SFCC    SFBC International, Inc   3:2      Jun  10th   Jun  11th
HE      Hawaiian Electric Ind     2:1      Jun  10th   Jun  11th
BXX     Brooke Corp               2:1      Jun  10th   Jun  11th
SSP     E.W.Scripps               2:1      Jun  10th   Jun  11th
PVA     Penn Virginia Corp        2:1      Jun  10th   Jun  11th
PNM     PNM Resources             3:2      Jun  11th   Jun  12th
FELE    Franklin Electric Co      2:1      Jun  15th   Jun  16th
NARA    Nara Bancorp, Inc         2:1      Jun  15th   Jun  16th
IRM     Iron Mountain Inc         3:2      Jun  15th   Jun  16th
HSY     Hershey Foods Corp        2:1      Jun  15th   Jun  16th
APPB    Applebees Internatl Inc   3:2      Jun  15th   Jun  16th
RIMM    Research In Motion Ltd    2:1      Jun  17th   Jun  18th
PG      Procter & Gamble          2:1      Jun  18th   Jun  21st
CACH    Cache Inc                 3:2      Jun  18th   Jun  21st
WGR     Western Gas Resources, Inc2:1      Jun  18th   Jun  21st


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

This week Wall Street will continue to focus on oil and economic
data but the big events are behind us with the OPEC meeting and
the jobs number.  Terrorism here at home will continue to be an
issue with the G8 Summit in Georgia this week.  Look for comments
from two federal reserve governors on the economy and a host of
economic reports Thursday and Friday.

==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 06/07/04
----------------
Consumer Credit (DM)       Apr  Forecast:   $5.5B  Previous:    $5.7B


-----------------
Tuesday, 06/08/04
-----------------
None


-------------------
Wednesday, 06/09/04
-------------------
Wholesale Inventories (DM) Apr  Forecast:    0.5%  Previous:     0.6%
Fed Governor Hoenig in roundtable with reporters.

------------------
Thursday, 06/10/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      06/05  Forecast:    335K  Previous:     339K
Export Prices ex-ag. (BB)  May  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.4%
Import Prices ex-oil (BB)  May  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     0.3%
Treasury Budget (DM)       May  Forecast: -$67.5B  Previous:  -$88.9B


----------------
Friday, 06/11/04
----------------
Trade Balance (BB)         Apr  Forecast: -$44.9B  Previous:  -$46.0B
PPI (BB)                   May  Forecast:    0.6%  Previous:     0.7%
Core PPI (BB)              May  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.2%
Mich Sentiment-Prel. (DM)  Jun  Forecast:    91.5  Previous:     90.2
Fed Governor Guynn speaks on U.S. Outlook

Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

DEO     Diageo Plc (ADS)           54.45    +0.40
MTG     MGIC Investments Corp      74.59    +0.64
UTR     Unitrin Inc                41.82    +0.14
BJ      BJ's Wholesale Club Inc    24.83    +0.03
TTC     Toro Co                    67.35    +1.28


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

CMVT    Comverse Technology Inc    19.00    +0.55
CVTX    CV Therapeutics Inc        16.56    +1.03
PETS    Petmed Express Inc          9.84    +0.35


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

ATH     Anthem Inc                 90.08    +0.46
AET     Aetna Inc New              84.80    -0.08
FRO     Frontline Ltd (ADR)        38.67    -0.02
TLB     Talbots Inc                38.29    -0.02
CAKE    Cheesecake Factory Inc     39.69    -0.13


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

DOW     DOW Chemical Co            39.22    +0.77
KB      Kookmin Bank               32.50    +0.25
WIT     Wipro Ltd (ADS)            42.68    +1.69
BRL     Barr Laboratories Inc      41.64    +0.79
CME     Chicago Mrcntile Exchange 120.41    +1.96


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SNE     Sony Corp                  35.96    +0.43
REP     Repsol YPF Sa              21.15    +0.39
SKM     SK Telecom Co Ltd          20.78    +0.68
HRB     H&R Block Inc              46.98    +0.06
PD      Phelps Dodge Corp          66.64    +1.30


=================================================================
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send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





DISCLAIMER

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