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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                   Monday 06-14-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:  A "Measured" Decline
Watch List:   Where Are The Bulls?

===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     06-14-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10334.73 - 75.37 10401.30 10307.05 1.43 bln    534/2337
NASDAQ   1969.99 - 29.88  1987.83  1963.48 1.38 bln    779/2297
S&P 100   550.06 -  4.84   554.90   548.18   Totals   1313/4634
S&P 500  1125.29 - 11.18  1136.47  1122.16
RUS 2000  557.67 - 11.45   569.12   557.66
DJ TRANS 2993.97 - 30.74  3024.13  2987.60
VIX        16.07 +  1.03    16.36    15.54
VXO        16.07 +  2.24    16.33    15.48
VXN        22.24 +  1.01    22.86    22.16
Total Volume 3,137M
Total UpVol    576M
Total DnVol  2,516M
52wk Highs     100
52wk Lows      146
TRIN          1.24
PUT/CALL      1.32
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

A "Measured" Decline
by James Brown

Monday proved to be a defeat for the bulls as stocks slid lower
in a very widespread decline.  Traders once again obsessed over
concerns that the Federal Reserve may have to raise rates faster
than previously expected.  Through most of May the fed's mantra
was one of a "measured" response suggesting they would only raise
rates in small intervals so as not to disrupt the U.S. and global
economies.  Hawkish comments from a few fed governors late last
week, including some comments made on Friday while the markets
were closed, have suddenly thrown doubt over the Fed's next move.

Last Friday Jack Guynn and Sandra Pianalto, both Fed Presidents
in their districts, issued specific comments suggesting that if
inflation rises too fast the FOMC could be forced to react much
more quickly to keep inflation under control.  Normally the Fed
tends to telegraph their next move and the next FOMC meeting is
only two weeks away.  After a month of hearing the "measured"
response to questions on policy investors were not ready for
these new comments.

This morning's economic reports didn't help matters.  The
Commerce Department released the import/export numbers and the
trade gap jumped an unexpected 3.8% in April.  Economists were
expecting the gap to narrow to $45.1 billion but the trade
deficit surged to $48.3 billion, the second record high in a row.
March's trade gap was widened from $46.0 billion to $46.7
billion.  Morgan Stanley chose to raise their Q2 GDP forecasts
from 4% to 4.3% on the news.  Echoing the strong demand numbers
was the U.S. retail sales report for May.  The Commerce
Department said sales jumped 1.2% in May compared to a 0.6% drop
in April.  The good news here is that demand is up and it
reflects the stronger economy.  The bad news here is that demand
is up and it is probably pushing inflation higher as well.

Bank of America and the Standard & Poor's Investment Policy
Committee both issued comments out today suggesting that
investors reduce their exposure to stocks.  The S&P press release
said, "Standard & Poor's recommends that investors take advantage
of recent price strength by reducing their exposure to domestic
and foreign equities and increasing their exposure to cash."
Both advisory firms pointed to increased risk with a rising
interest rate environment.  It's easy to see why tomorrow's
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is so important.  The CPI is a key
gauge of inflation and economists are expecting the sixth monthly
gain in a row tomorrow with a 0.2% increase for May.  Currently
investor fears are projecting a 32% chance of a 50-point rate
hike at the June FOMC meeting.  Any tick higher in the CPI and
that chance is bound to go up.

The markets have already baked in a 25-point hike.  That's why a
sudden shift in expectations that we could get a 50-point hike
has investors hitting the sell button and hit the sell button
they did.  Stocks were down around the globe.  The Japanese
NIKKEI slipped 35 points to 11,491 but the Hang Seng index fell
close to 320 points to end at 12,076.  European exchanges saw
some hefty declines with the English FTSE down almost 51 points
to 4433.  The French CAC was down 52 points to 3647 and the
German DAX slid nearly 66 points to 3948.

Here at home in the U.S. selling was stronger in the interest
rate sensitive issues.  Homebuilders were an easy target but so
were the growth-sensitive tech sectors.  The SOX semiconductor
index's 2.26% decline helped lead the NASDAQ lower after UBS
lowered their outlook on the semiconductor industry.  Intel
happened to be the Dow's biggest decliner.  Gold stocks were the
worst performers with a 3.6% drop in the XAU gold and silver
index.  Gold futures fell $2.40 to $384.20 an ounce on concerns
that the dollar will rise with interest rates.  At the end of the
day no one sector-specific index remained green.

The Dow Jones Industrials lost 75 points but managed a meager
bounce from the 10,300 level to close at 10,334.  The tech-rich
NASDAQ lost 30 points (1.49%) to close right on its simple 200-
dma and above its early June lows.  Market internals were sharply
bearish.  Declining stocks outnumbered advancing stocks 23 to 5
on the NYSE and 23 to 8 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume outpaced up
volume by more than 5 to 1 on the NYSE and 3 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
Overall volume remained exceptionally low.

Chart of the Dow Jones Industrials:



Chart of the NASDAQ Composite:



Pressuring the Dow and the retail sector were comments from
retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT).  The Bentonville, Arkansas-based
company reaffirmed its June same-store sales forecast for 4% to
6% growth but warned that they would probably fall toward the low
end of this range.  Shares dropped 1.43% and closed under
technical support at their simple 200-dma.  Another retailer,
this one in the dollar-store niche, sent investors running.  An
earnings warning sent shares of 99 Cent Only Stores (NDN) to a
31% loss and shares closed at $14.10.  The stock gapped lower
after the company lowered its profit forecast from 19-20 cents
per share to 4-7 cents per share.  A couple of Wall Street's
biggest brokers downgraded NDN to a "sell" or "underweight".
What could be worse than an earnings warning?  Why an earnings
warning and a management shake up.  Shares of Drugstore.com
(DSCM) tumbled more than 37% to $3.06 per share after warning of
a wider than expected loss and the abrupt departure of its CEO
last Friday.

Finish mobile phone maker Nokia (NOK) made headlines today after
lowering its estimated first quarter market share forecast from
35% to 32%.  Rivals like Motorola (MOT) have been catching up so
NOK is introducing five new models while simultaneously slimming
down its total product line from 40 to 35 models.  NOK may have
lowered its Q1 market share number but they are sticking to their
40% market share goal.  NOK also raised its estimates on global
mobile phone usage 27% to 600 million units.  Long-term the
company believes worldwide usage will hit 2 billion in 2007.
Speaking of forecasts and milestones XM Satellite Radio (XMSR)
announced this morning that it had reached its 2 millionth
subscriber.  The satellite radio provider forecasts it will have
20 million subscribers by 2010.

It wouldn't be a Monday without some merger news.  The big news
today came from the gambling/casino sector.  MGM Mirage (MGG) has
upped its bid for rival Mandalay Resort (MBG) from $68-per share
($7.6 billion) to $71-per share ($7.9 billion).  MBG is
considering the new offer but questions remain whether the deal
would pass regulatory approval.   The next largest deal announced
today was in the drug sector.  QLT Inc (QLTI) declared it would
buy Atrix Laboratories (ATRX) for $855 million.  The third deal
announced today was a merger between HealthTronics Surgical
(HTRN) and Prime Medical Services (PMSI) valued at $145.9
million.

There were a few noteworthy headlines after the closing bell.
Aerospace giant, defense contractor and Dow-component Boeing (BA)
beat out rival Lockheed Martin for a $3.9 billion deal with the
U.S. Navy.  BA will design a replacement for the Navy's
submarine-hunting P3 aircraft.  BA was not expected to win the
contract so shares are likely to rise tomorrow.  Meanwhile
trucking company Yellow Roadway (YELL) surged in after hours
trading after lifting its earnings forecast.  YELL is raising its
profit outlook from 70-75 cents per share to 85-90 cents per
share.  The consensus analyst estimate was 74 cents.  In the
company's press release Yellow's CEO said, "All our business
units continue to perform very well," and "The improvement in our
second quarter earnings outlook is being driven by excellent
execution along with favorable economic conditions."  Bulls
should take notice.  Dow Theory suggests that the transports need
to rally in order to sustain any prolonged bull market.  If YELL
can do this well given the rise in fuel costs business must be
good.

Tomorrow's market action will be driven by the economic data
released.  Wall Street will be focused on the CPI number,
specifically if the core rate of inflation rises more than 0.2%
in May.  The CPI report comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET so we could see
the markets gap open (up or down).  Ninety minutes later will
begin the Senate nomination hearings for Greenspan's next term of
office.  We might look for the trading to slow down as traders
turn their ears to hear if Alan offers any more hints about the
next interest rate decision.  Tuesday will also unveil the
University of Michigan's preliminary June consumer confidence
numbers and the New York Empire State index for June.

Keep in mind that even if we have good news gains may be
restrained. Terrorism concerns are heightened with the June 30th
Iraq handover so close.  This past Saturday Iraq's deputy foreign
minister was killed in Baghdad and we'll likely to hear more
stories about Americans and westerners being kidnapped in Iraq
and Saudi Arabia.  Many market pundits feel we'll be range bound
until the June 29/30th FOMC finally alleviates the mystery of the
Fed's next move and America takes one more step to getting out of
Iraq.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Where Are The Bulls?

International Game Technology - IGT - close: 36.75 change: -1.19

WHAT TO WATCH: Could this be the move that really sticks?  IGT
has been vacillating between support near $36 and resistance near
$40 for the past several week, but the selloff in recent sessions
suggests that the range is about to break to the downside.  Use a
trigger under $36 for entry, as that would break both the 200-dma
and the recent lows.  With the PnF chart already bearish and
pointing to a $24 downside target, we'll look for an initial move
to the $33 support area and then round number support at $30.




---

Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. - AU - close: 30.65 change: -1.64

WHAT TO WATCH: Mining stocks got pummeled again on Monday and
that was enough to drive shares of AU down to critical support
and right to the verge of a major breakdown.  Use a trigger of
$30.60 and target an initial move to the $27-28 support zone.




---

Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 33.00 change: -1.54

WHAT TO WATCH: Following a respectable rebound from the selloff
that got underway in late January, GRMN is once again rolling
over just under the 50-dma.  Entries look favorable either on a
break below today's low or on another failed bounce near $35.
Target a drop back to retest the May lows near $28.




---

Taiwan Semiconductor - TSM - close: 7.57 change: -1.51

WHAT TO WATCH: Something clearly isn't right in the Semiconductor
sector when the worlds largest foundry gets hit for a near 17%
loss the day after a bullish demand forecast.  Today saw the
stock smash through the $7.75 support level and that opens the
door for a push towards strong support in the $6.25-6.50 area.
Consider entries on either a break below today's low or on a
failed bounce back near the $7.75 level.




---


===================
On the RADAR Screen
===================

SGR $10.05 - It's good to see the SEC can still spook investors,
as the news of an informal SEC inquiry send the stock plunging to
the tune of more than 18% today.  That seems a bit much for
chasing the stock lower and normally we'd agree.  But given the
huge volume and the break of key support, we're thinking this may
just be the beginning. With more key support just below, we have
a great spot to set our trigger.  Look for bearish entries on a
move under $9.70, as sellers will likely be setting their eyes on
strong support in the $8.00-8.25 area.

MVSN $22.91 - What can't go up, must go down, right?  After
struggling with the $24 resistance level for more than 6 weeks,
MVSN appears headed in the opposite direction.  We need to wait
for a break under the $22 level before playing, but then MVSN
looks vulnerable to the $20 level at least and quite possibly to
the $1819 area.


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Monday 06-14-2004
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Loss Updates:   SNDK
Closed Plays:        None
Split Announcement:  CWTR, TEVA, VAR


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Updates
=================================================================

SNDK - tech stock short
 Lower stop from $23.26 to $22.26



=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

None


=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------

CWTR rings up a 3-for-2 stock split

This morning before the market's opening bell Coldwater Creek
Inc. (NASDAQ:CWTR) announced that its Board of Directors had
approved a 3-for-2 stock split in the form of a 50% stock
dividend.

This dividend is payable on July 23rd, 2004 to shareholders on
record as of July 1st. Post-split CWTR will have close to 39.8
million shares outstanding.

About the company:
Coldwater Creek is an integrated triple-sales-channel retailer of
women's apparel, jewelry, gifts and accessories through a growing
number of full-line retail stores located in major metropolitan
areas, an e-commerce web site at http://www.coldwatercreek.com
and direct-mail catalogs. (source: company press release)

---

TEVA declares a 2-for-1 stock split

This afternoon, a couple of hours before the closing bell, Teva
Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. (NASDAQ:TEVA) announced that its
Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its
ordinary shares/ADRs.

The split will take place as a 100% stock dividend payable on
June 30th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of June 24th.  TEVA
should begin trading post-split (or ex-dividend) on the NASDAQ on
July 1st, 2004.

About the company:
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., headquartered in Israel, is
among the top 25 pharmaceutical companies and among the largest
generic pharmaceutical companies in the world. The company
develops, manufactures, and markets generic and innovative human
pharmaceuticals and active pharmaceutical ingredients. Close to
90 percent of Teva's sales are in North America and Europe.
(source: company press release)

---

VAR announces a 2-for-1 stock split

This morning before the market's opening bell Varian Medical
Systems, Inc. (NYSE:VAR) announced that its Board of Directors
had approved a 2-for-1 stock split in the form of a 100% stock
dividend.

This dividend is payable on July 30th, 2004 to shareholders on
record as of June 30th.  Post-split VAR will have approximately
136.2 million shares of stock outstanding.

Company shareholders recently approved an amendment to increase
the number of authorized shares from 90 million to 189 million at
their June 11th shareholder meeting.

About the company:
Varian Medical Systems, Inc., of Palo Alto, California is the
world's leading manufacturer of integrated cancer therapy
systems, which are treating thousands of patients per day. The
company is also a premier supplier of X-ray tubes and flat-panel
digital subsystems for imaging in medical, scientific, and
industrial applications. Varian Medical Systems employs
approximately 3,160 people who are located at manufacturing sites
in North America and Europe and in its 56 sales and support
offices around the world. In its most recent fiscal year ended
September 26, 2003, Varian Medical Systems reported sales of over
$1 billion. (source:
company press release)



=================================================================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

XL      XL Capital Ltd             76.93    +0.74
ITT     ITT Industries Inc In      83.92    +1.14
BG      Bunge Ltd                  37.42    +0.60
SFD     Smithfield Foods Inc       29.18    +0.54
PNY     Piedmont Natrl Gas Inc     42.19    +0.51


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

MTN     Vail Resorts Inc           16.80    +1.23
CYBX    Cyberonics Inc             19.58    +1.19
PTRY    Pantry Inc                 20.00    +1.48

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

RJR     RJ Reynolds Tobbaco Hldg   59.59    +2.75
WGR     Western Gas Resources      58.40    +1.29
SRCL    Stericycle Inc             48.15    +1.58


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SI      Siemens Aktien             69.92    -1.98
KB      Kookmin Bank               29.08    -2.62
ESRX    Express Scripts Inc        75.83    -2.52
CDWC    CDW Corp                   63.83    -5.27


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MRK     Merck & Co                 46.90    -0.88
DEO     Diageo Plc (ADS)           53.26    -1.28
TD      Toronto Dominion Bank      32.90    -0.61
V       Vivendi Universal          25.14    -0.84
SLE     Sara Lee Corp              22.80    -0.36


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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