Option Investor
Newsletter

Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 07/13/2004

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 07-13-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Earnings Deadlock
Watch List:       Chips to Software to Natural Gas
Market Sentiment: Intel vs. Bastille Day

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      07-13-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10247.59 +  9.40 10257.10 10230.63 1.49 bln 1596/1635
NASDAQ   1931.66 -  5.30  1945.17  1930.59 1.52 bln 1454/1588
S&P 100   544.00 +  0.30   544.84   543.03   Totals 3050/3223
S&P 500  1115.14 +  0.79  1116.30  1112.99
W5000   10854.69 +  5.67 10869.10 10837.81
SOX       449.42 -  0.80   445.35   436.61
RUS 2000  562.69 +  0.45   564.93   562.24
DJ TRANS 3079.74 - 11.90  3092.07  3079.43
VIX        14.46 -  0.50    16.20    14.28
VXO (VIX-O)15.68 -  0.39    16.20    15.33
VXN        21.42 -  0.31    21.80    20.62
Total Volume 3,233M
Total UpVol  1,396M	
Total DnVol  1,730M
Total Adv  3461
Total Dcl  3668
52wk Highs   93
52wk Lows   160
TRIN       0.96
NAZTRIN    2.04
PUT/CALL   0.79
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Earnings Deadlock
by Jim Brown

Traders fought to a deadlock today as they waited for
Intel earnings after the close. All the major indexes
added together were still within a dozen points of the
flat line with the SPX, OEX, SOX, RUT all failing to
gain/lose a full point. It was definitely a day spent
waiting instead of trading.

Dow Chart - Daily



Nasdaq Chart - Daily




The day did not start off well with Chain Store Sales flat
with the prior week. Year over year growth fell to only
+3.4% and the lowest level since last August. We are now
entering some tough comparisons from 2003 and we do not
have a tax rebate cycle this year to pour extra cash into
the system. This coupled with the high gas prices are
likely to keep pressure on retailers into the holidays.

Further bad news came from the Richmond Fed Manufacturing
Survey which fell to 14 from 22. New Orders fell to 1 from
12 and Order Backlog fell to -12 from -1. This was a very
negative report and while the headline number was still
positive it showed a significant slowing in manufacturing
activity in the Richmond area. All components showed
declines except in future employment. Confusing analysts
was a drop in current employment of -8 points to only
one, but the index of expected employment jumped +7 to
nine. Orders down, shipments down, backlogs down but
future employment expectations spiking to the upside.
This definitely confused investors. The report was the
exact opposite of the Kansas City Fed Survey reported
on Monday where the headline number jumped to 51 from
35. This continuing contradiction in the economic numbers
is keeping traders off balance as well as analysts.

The big news for the day was not economic. The markets
wandered aimlessly in a narrow range while waiting for
Intel to announce earnings after the close. Intel did
announce inline earnings but that was the only thing
in line. They missed slightly on revenues and lowered
their gross margin estimates to 60% from 62% with margins
for Q2 falling to 59.4%. The margin decline is critical
for Intel as this is the yardstick analysts use to gauge
its performance. With revenue in the $8 billion per qtr
range it is easy to see a huge move in revenue with no
corresponding move in earnings. Intel give their margin
estimates so analysts can make assumptions on earnings
based on the various revenue projections. Essentially
it gives them the yardstick to measure the quarter.

With gross margins falling and revenue a little light
it suggests times are getting slightly leaner for Intel.
They said the drop in margins was due to a product mix
shifting to lower priced, lower margin items. High
dollar processors were said to be soft and this means
corporate sales are not growing. Sure the gamers and
graphic artists are buying the hottest processors
available but the standard retail PC for mom/pop, home
and school is turning into the run of the mill setup
that can compete with other sticker price on dealers
shelves. With 2.4ghz Pentium4 systems selling for $399
on the Internet it is not tough to see why Intel margins
are shrinking.

Another challenge was a jump in inventory for Q2 by
+15.3% after a +11% jump in Q1. Intel is building
products that are not jumping off the shelves and
that brings up concerns of slowing consumer trends
from yet another angle. Any way you look at it an
increase in inventory of more than 25% since January
means sales are not occurring as planned. This coupled
with the lowered margins is what pushed INTC down -1.36
in after hours. Andy Bryant said in an interview they
were seeing some pricing pressures in processors and
it would take them 1-2 quarters to work off the extra
inventory. On the bright side he said they were seeing
normal seasonal trends and he expects business to
continue to grow. Personally I think Intel is a great
company and they will continue to post increasing
earnings but there may be a buying opportunity ahead.
I remember several times in the past where Intel got
ahead of itself and inventory built to levels where
it had to write down massive amounts of obsolete chips.
Obsolete to Intel can be a very short period due to
their rapid development cycle. "Old" processor chips
today may be 6-9 months old with multiple newer chips
in production and others in the pipeline. Intel does
not wait until they are scrap to write them off. They
aggressively manage inventory and write off unsold
chips quickly while they still have life at some price.
I believe this is coming and could show as soon as Q3.

Intel could begin an aggressive price cut strategy to
dump the chips and that will again lower their margins.
This will initially pressure the stock price. Intel is
trading at $24.90 in after hours and under $25 is below
prior support at $26. I suspect we will see an attempt
to trade $24 and that is the last real support level
before $20. I think it is a buy at $24 for long term
investors but it is a REAL bargain at $20. I would jump
on INTC leaps at any price between $20-$24 and average
cost into a multi contract position. The next three
months may be dead money but then long term is the
key here.

Juniper also announced earnings after the bell and beat
analysts estimates by a mile. Juniper posted +8 cents
compared to estimates of +4 cents and raised guidance
for the future. Juniper was up +2.02 in after hours
at $24.21 and well over the $21.99 close. They also
announced a buyback of $250 million in stock. This
is the way earnings are supposed to work.

Going the other direction was Merrill Lynch which
posted earnings that rose +10% but fell short of
expectations. Merrill missed estimates due to weak
trading results but showed gains in management fees
and mutual fund commissions. Merrill said the firm
lowered its risk profile from trading in Q2 after
low market volume and low volatility made it more
risky to trade. Welcome to the club! Merrill said
on their call "it was a difficult trading month
(June) and we made a conscious decision to reduce
trading." With a $1 billion profit for the quarter
the decision to reduce risk was probably a good call.
They also announced another stock buyback of $2 bil.
MER sank to a 52-week low and closed at 49.80. Next
support is $45 and then $40 but I would be very
surprised to see much more of a drop. A stock that
is making $1+ billion per quarter and buying back
$2 billion in stock, its second buyback of this size
this year, will find buyers pretty quickly. This is
another stock that should be in everybody's portfolio
once the election is history.

Red Hat turned into a dunce cap today after they said
they would have to restate financial results for the
last three years. RHAT said they do not expect a
"material" effect on annual revenue or cash flow but
traders immediately took the stock to the woodshed
for a -22% whipping. RHAT dropped -$4.62 to close
at $15.72. Red Hat was booking a full month of revenue
for any monthly subscription started during the month.
Under the new revision they will book revenue on a
daily basis depending on when the subscription began.
They estimate less than 3% of their revenue will be
impacted by the change. The portion of the month that
was not actually earned although collected will be
deferred until the end of the contract. It does not
go away it just gets deferred. The problem is not
in the restatement but in confidence in the company.
The companies outlook has not changed and with a
record number of corporations finally looking at
moving from the Microsoft dominated operating system
market to a significantly cheaper alternative the
future is bright.

This must be my day for bargains because I view all
the stocks above, INTC, MER, JNPR and RHAT as long
term holds in any portfolio. The buying opportunities
in three of them are gifts to traders looking to buy
stocks on the cheap. The real problem here is looming
in our future and it is not stock related. It is event
related and we have a full calendar ahead. We have the
Democratic convention on July 26th, Olympics Aug 13th
to 29th, Republican convention on August 30th and
finally the election in November. In the middle of
that stretch there are the two weakest months of the
year in Sept/Oct. The potential for a terrorist attack
at one of those events may not be as high as in the
past but the potential for thousands of news articles
discussing the risk is about 100%. While I would want
to recommend to investors to buy those four stocks
on weakness today there is always the potential for
another dip ahead.

These fear factors are keeping investors on the
sidelines with no urgency to buy. Volume has dried
up faster than summer rain in Arizona. Volatility
does not exist and we continue to be range bound but
we could see a break in that range any day now. The
Dow has been stuck in a range under 10250 since
July 6th and that is exactly where we closed today.
The market was primed and waiting for an Intel
earnings win to send us higher. Futures are down
about -4 points in overnight trading and it appears
we will open down tomorrow. Our support is 10175 and
the 200dma so the minor Intel problem may not attract
enough selling interest to break us out of the range
but just send us back to the bottom.

SOX Chart - Daily



The Semiconductor Index is right on the verge of a
major crash. It has found support in the 440 range
since May and we have tested it several times. The
Intel news sent the vast majority of chip stocks down
in after hours and this suggests the SOX will break
this 440 support at the open. This is not good news
for the Nasdaq or the Russell.

The Nasdaq has more risk with a close today at 1931.
The Nasdaq has initial risk to 1900 but the Juniper
win could help offset the Intel weakness. The current
Nasdaq pattern has moved from range bound to more of
a decline but that could have been in anticipation
of the Intel report. How the Nasdaq and the SOX react
tomorrow to the Intel guidance will be a key but not
the answer to the next few weeks of trading. The next
major impact to the market could come from IBM on
Thursday. If IBM does not trip then tech investors
may start focusing on the positive comments from the
blue chip giants and the bargain hunting could begin.

I just expect that bargain hunting to be muted for
the next month regardless of the earnings news. Even
if everybody began beating estimates I doubt we would
see a breakout move before Labor day. That keeps me
thinking there is the potential for a low volume
slide ahead and a better buying opportunity for all
those stocks I listed above. Patient money is safe
money and I plan on being very patient over the next
six weeks.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Chips to Software to Natural Gas

National Semiconductor - NSM - close: 18.99 change: -0.21

WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor stocks have had a rough month
already and yesterday Merrill Lynch downgraded the entire
industry.  Today, after the closing bell, chip giant Intel report
earnings and disappointed investors with light revenues and
comments about lower gross margins for the year.  We're expecting
the SOX to trade lower tomorrow.  Keep an eye on NSM for a
possible breakdown below crucial support at the $18.00 level.




---

Citrix Systems - CTXS - close: 17.29 change: -0.61

WHAT TO WATCH: Nimble traders may want to give CTXS another look.
The sharp decline from $20 to $17 finally stalled and CTXS
consolidated its losses under new resistance at $18.00.  Today's
failed rally at the $18.00 mark looks like a trade-worthy
reversal but we'd use a trigger under $17.00 to initiate any new
positions.  Our biggest concern would be earnings coming up on
July 21st as we would not hold over the event.  Its weekly chart
suggests traders could target the $15.00 mark.  Yet its bearish
P&F chart, which targets the $12.00 level, has support at $16.00.




---

Quicksilver - KWK - close: 32.88 change: -1.01

WHAT TO WATCH: Primarily a natural gas play, shares of KWK have
soared from their November lows near $13.  Now after rising
nearly non-stop from early June to July KWK is starting to falter
after several days of sideways consolidation.  Today's 3% drop
was sparked by a downgrade.  It's noteworthy that volume has been
pretty strong on the two-day decline and its MACD has produced a
new sell signal.  We'd consider aggressive shorts with a drop
through the $32.00 level and its 21-dma.  Target the 50-dma.




---

TRM Corp - TRMM - close: 16.44 change: +1.02

WHAT TO WATCH: TRMM might interest the bulls.  Shares appear to
have put in a substantial bottom between $11.60 and $15.00.  Now
shares have broken through resistance at their 40, 50, and 100-
dma's while also pushing through the $15 and $16 levels.  Its P&F
chart is very bullish and points to a $28 target.  We would
consider doing more homework on this stock and potentially
targeting the $20.00 level.





===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Intel vs. Bastille Day
- J. Brown

It was another snoozer of a session on Wall Street.  Everyone was
waiting for Intel's earnings report after the closing bell.  Even
a sour earnings report from Merrill Lynch, who missed estimates
by 3 cents, couldn't spark any volatility - except in the broker-
dealer index.

Overall investors almost seemed fatigued.  We've wait so long for
the Q2 earnings season to show up and now earnings, which are
expected to come in pretty high, won't really matter as Wall
Street focuses on guidance for what could be a lousy third
quarter.  Of course that's the way it normally works as the
market discounts future events.

By the closing bell market internals revealed just how slow it
was.  Advancing issues tied declining issues at 1400 each on the
NYSE while decliners slipped past advancers 15 to 14 on the
NASDAQ.  Overall volume numbers were relatively light at less
than 3.0 billion shares trading on both exchanges.  Traders chose
to rotate out of tech stocks ahead of Intel's earnings tonight
and IBM's earnings on Thursday.  Money also poured out of airline
stocks as the XAL dove more than 4%.  Tuesday's biggest winners
were in the DJUSHB home construction index and the HMO healthcare
index, both up about 2%.

Now what's this talk about Bastille Day, France's equivalent to
our own July 4th?  It's probably just coincidence but the Stock
Trader's Almanac has pegged July 14th as the market's best bet
for a rally.  According to the Almanac, by Hirsh Press, seasonal
trends over the past 20 years point to July 14th as having the
best odds for a gain in the S&P 500.  Currently those odds are
about 86.6%.

Now the question is who will win tomorrow: Intel or Bastille Day?
Intel reported earnings that were inline with estimates but came
in light on revenues and issued negative comments about their
gross margins slipping.  One would normally expect this sort of
news to depress stocks tomorrow, especially tech stocks.  On the
other hand Intel did issue a slightly positive forecast for its
Q3 revenues.  Plus, Juniper Networks (JNPR) announced earnings
after the close and they blew past the estimates!  Hmm.. it could
be another close tug-of-war tomorrow but you have to admit the
NASDAQ looks a little oversold, down 120 points in the month of
July and traders seemed to be expecting bad news from Intel
anyway.  If you're a contrarian Bastille Day could be a winner!



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8996
Current     : 10247

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10279
 50-dma: 10230
200-dma: 10189



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  960
Current     : 1115

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1121
 50-dma: 1117
200-dma: 1102



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1204
Current     : 1428

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1462
 50-dma: 1448
200-dma: 1444



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.46 -0.50
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.68 -0.39
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.42 -0.31

-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.79        636,712       505,934
Equity Only    0.63        515,012       326,622
OEX            1.45         25,964        37,641
QQQ            1.03         52,976        54,348


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          65.6    + 0     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    48.0    + 0     Bull Alert
Dow Indust.   66.7    - 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       61.6    - 1     Bear Correction
S&P 100       64.0    - 1     Bear Correction



Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.22
10-dma: 1.59
21-dma: 1.29
55-dma: 1.15


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1402      1447
Decliners    1400      1522

New Highs      60        29
New Lows       30        91

Up Volume    819M      482M
Down Vol.    633M      976M

Total Vol.  1475M     1500M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/06/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercial traders continue to sit tight without much change
in their bearish sentiment.  Retail traders aren't changing
their bullish tune much either but they have grown a bit more
optimistic


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
06/15/04      428,905   444,197   (15,292)   (1.8%)
06/22/04      407,842   415,462   ( 7,620)   (0.9%)
06/29/04      405,273   413,351   ( 8,078)   (0.9%)
07/06/04      402,952   416,526   (13,574)   (1.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/15/04      169,595   115,336    54,259    19.0%
06/22/04      124,985    89,934    35,051    16.3%
06/29/04      129,978    94,535    35,443    15.7%
07/06/04      132,423    90,748    41,675    18.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Now we are seeing some money shuffling in the e-minis.
Commercial traders have reduced their shorts and raised their
long positions but remain overwhelmingly bearish.  Small traders
have pared back their bullish sentiment.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
06/15/04      440,867   522,546    (81,679)   (8.5%)
06/22/04      229,290   446,974   (217,684)  (32.2%)
06/29/04      258,443   447,505   (189,062)  (26.7%)
07/06/04      287,442   423,583   (136,141)  (19.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/15/04      216,759    147,247    69,512    19.1%
06/22/04      243,444     58,389   185,055    61.3%
06/29/04      236,492     47,780   188,712    66.3%
07/06/04      219,321     58,567   160,754    27.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders remain somewhat bullish on the NASDAQ 100
but only by a small margin.  Small traders are much more
bearish on technology.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/15/04       78,542     54,341    24,201   18.2%
06/22/04       40,397     37,413     2,984    3.8%
06/29/04       41,078     37,194     3,884    4.9%
07/06/04       42,245     37,343     4,902    6.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
06/15/04       15,794    35,880   (20,086)  (38.9%)
06/22/04        9,311     9,950      (639)  ( 3.3%)
06/29/04        7,437    11,904    (4,467)  (23.1%)
07/06/04        9,345    16,527    (7,182)  (27.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders continue to snooze with little change
in their Dow Jones Industrials positions.  Small traders
have reduced their bearish attitude some but remain
negative.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/15/04       30,438    24,766    5,672      10.3%
06/22/04       26,808    19,752    7,056      15.2%
06/29/04       27,278    20,512    6,766      14.1%
07/06/04       27,214    20,775    6,439      13.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
06/15/04       13,942    20,953   (7,011)   (20.1%)
06/22/04        5,626     7,798   (2,172)   (16.2%)
06/29/04        4,930     7,682   (2,752)   (21.8%)
07/06/04        5,969     8,227   (2,258)   (15.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 07-13-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments: IMOS, FLML
Closed Plays:     QLGC, SWC
Stock Splits:     QCOM

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

IMOS - high risk/reward short -
 News that IMOS plans to offer another 7 million shares of stock
 in a  secondary offernig at $5.50 a share sent the stock reeling
 for a 10% drop.  Lower stop from $7.26 to $6.30

---

FLML - high risk/reward short-
 Lower stop from $23.06 to $22.06


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

QLogic Corp. - QLGC - close: 25.15 change: +0.25 stop: 26.51

QLGC continues to consolidate into a tighter and tighter coil as
investors await the company's Q2 earnings report after the bell
on Wednesday.  Analysts' estimates for QLGC are at 36 cents a
share.  Per our comments in the weekend newsletter we are closing
the play on Tuesday to avoid any earnings announcement surprises.
Meanwhile it's worth noting that QLGC was trading under the $25
level in after hours trading after Intel failed to inspire any
confidence in the group with its own earnings tonight.

Picked on June 20th at $25.57
Change since picked    - 0.42
Earnings Date        07/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =   4.19 mln



---

Stillwater Mining Co - SWC - close: 15.49 chg: +0.06 stop: 14.95

Ouch!  Last night after the closing bell 900 of SWC's Montana
employees decided to go on strike after rejecting a recent labor
agreement.  SWC said it would shut down its largest mine due to
the strike.  The stock gapped down to $14.80 and traded to $14.63
before bouncing sharply through the rest of the session.  The
opening bid was under our stop loss at $14.95 and immediately
closed us out.

Picked on July 07 at $16.05
Gain since picked:   - 0.56
Earnings Date      07/30/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   630 thousand




=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------

QCOM wires up a 2-for-1 stock split and 40% dividend hike

Before today's opening bell Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) announced
that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of
its common shares as well as a 40 percent increase in its
quarterly cash dividend.

The stock split will be paid as a 100% stock dividend. The payable
date for the stock split is August 13th, 2004 to shareholders on
record as of July 23rd.

In the same meeting, Qualcomm's dividend was boosted to 14 cents
from 10 cents on a pre-split basis, and 7 cents to 5 cents on a
post-split basis.  The dividend will be payable on September 24th,
2004 to shareholders on record as of August 27th.

About the company:
QUALCOMM Incorporated (www.qualcomm.com) is a leader in developing
and delivering innovative digital wireless communications products
and services based on the Company's CDMA digital technology.
Headquartered in San Diego, Calif., QUALCOMM is included in the
S&P 500 Index and is a 2003 FORTUNE 500. company traded on The
Nasdaq Stock Market. under the ticker symbol QCOM.
(Source: Company Press Release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FNM     Fannie Mae                 70.96     +0.82
NTT     Nippon Telephone           26.96     +0.57
TGT     Target Corp                43.64     +1.29
FRE     Freddie Mac                65.23     +1.27
HMC     Honda Motor Co             23.63     +0.74
UNH     United Health              61.99     +1.45

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

HUM     Humana Inc                 17.31     +1.21
RML     Russell Corp               18.92     +1.87
NARA    Nara Bancorp               18.50     +1.22
OPTN    Option Care                16.71     +2.50
TRMM    TRM Corp                   16.44     +1.02

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

MTG     MGIC Investment            77.44     +3.82
COL     Rockwell Collins           35.01     +1.31
FAST    Fastenal Co                59.63     +5.22
PCP     Precision Cast Parts       56.00     +1.90
HSIC    Henry Schein               66.14     +3.99
MDC     M.D.C. Holdings            65.80     +4.25
CYT     Cytec Industries           48.23     +3.75

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MER     Merrill Lynch              49.80     -1.67
STT     State Street               44.95     -4.56
AGN     Allergan Inc               76.75     -5.16
ADTN    Adtran Inc                 25.56     -4.11
FIC     Fair Isaac Inc             24.00     -7.36
ICOS    ICOS Corp                  23.07     -1.19
MIM     MI Development             23.63     -2.72
CNMD    Conmed                     24.33     -1.96

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

KWK     Quicksilver Resources      32.88     -1.01
NCRX    Neighborcare               28.96     -1.03
TZOO    Travelzoo                  25.20     -4.55
IMO     Imperial Oil               47.22     -0.48
PDS     Precision Drilling         48.22     -0.74


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

To ensure you continue to receive email from Option Investor please add "support@optioninvestor.com"

Option Investor Inc
PO Box 630350
Littleton, CO 80163

E-Mail Format Newsletter Archives