PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 07-13-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Earnings Deadlock Watch List: Chips to Software to Natural Gas Market Sentiment: Intel vs. Bastille Day ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 07-13-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10247.59 + 9.40 10257.10 10230.63 1.49 bln 1596/1635 NASDAQ 1931.66 - 5.30 1945.17 1930.59 1.52 bln 1454/1588 S&P 100 544.00 + 0.30 544.84 543.03 Totals 3050/3223 S&P 500 1115.14 + 0.79 1116.30 1112.99 W5000 10854.69 + 5.67 10869.10 10837.81 SOX 449.42 - 0.80 445.35 436.61 RUS 2000 562.69 + 0.45 564.93 562.24 DJ TRANS 3079.74 - 11.90 3092.07 3079.43 VIX 14.46 - 0.50 16.20 14.28 VXO (VIX-O)15.68 - 0.39 16.20 15.33 VXN 21.42 - 0.31 21.80 20.62 Total Volume 3,233M Total UpVol 1,396M Total DnVol 1,730M Total Adv 3461 Total Dcl 3668 52wk Highs 93 52wk Lows 160 TRIN 0.96 NAZTRIN 2.04 PUT/CALL 0.79 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Earnings Deadlock by Jim Brown Traders fought to a deadlock today as they waited for Intel earnings after the close. All the major indexes added together were still within a dozen points of the flat line with the SPX, OEX, SOX, RUT all failing to gain/lose a full point. It was definitely a day spent waiting instead of trading. Dow Chart - Daily Nasdaq Chart - Daily The day did not start off well with Chain Store Sales flat with the prior week. Year over year growth fell to only +3.4% and the lowest level since last August. We are now entering some tough comparisons from 2003 and we do not have a tax rebate cycle this year to pour extra cash into the system. This coupled with the high gas prices are likely to keep pressure on retailers into the holidays. Further bad news came from the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey which fell to 14 from 22. New Orders fell to 1 from 12 and Order Backlog fell to -12 from -1. This was a very negative report and while the headline number was still positive it showed a significant slowing in manufacturing activity in the Richmond area. All components showed declines except in future employment. Confusing analysts was a drop in current employment of -8 points to only one, but the index of expected employment jumped +7 to nine. Orders down, shipments down, backlogs down but future employment expectations spiking to the upside. This definitely confused investors. The report was the exact opposite of the Kansas City Fed Survey reported on Monday where the headline number jumped to 51 from 35. This continuing contradiction in the economic numbers is keeping traders off balance as well as analysts. The big news for the day was not economic. The markets wandered aimlessly in a narrow range while waiting for Intel to announce earnings after the close. Intel did announce inline earnings but that was the only thing in line. They missed slightly on revenues and lowered their gross margin estimates to 60% from 62% with margins for Q2 falling to 59.4%. The margin decline is critical for Intel as this is the yardstick analysts use to gauge its performance. With revenue in the $8 billion per qtr range it is easy to see a huge move in revenue with no corresponding move in earnings. Intel give their margin estimates so analysts can make assumptions on earnings based on the various revenue projections. Essentially it gives them the yardstick to measure the quarter. With gross margins falling and revenue a little light it suggests times are getting slightly leaner for Intel. They said the drop in margins was due to a product mix shifting to lower priced, lower margin items. High dollar processors were said to be soft and this means corporate sales are not growing. Sure the gamers and graphic artists are buying the hottest processors available but the standard retail PC for mom/pop, home and school is turning into the run of the mill setup that can compete with other sticker price on dealers shelves. With 2.4ghz Pentium4 systems selling for $399 on the Internet it is not tough to see why Intel margins are shrinking. Another challenge was a jump in inventory for Q2 by +15.3% after a +11% jump in Q1. Intel is building products that are not jumping off the shelves and that brings up concerns of slowing consumer trends from yet another angle. Any way you look at it an increase in inventory of more than 25% since January means sales are not occurring as planned. This coupled with the lowered margins is what pushed INTC down -1.36 in after hours. Andy Bryant said in an interview they were seeing some pricing pressures in processors and it would take them 1-2 quarters to work off the extra inventory. On the bright side he said they were seeing normal seasonal trends and he expects business to continue to grow. Personally I think Intel is a great company and they will continue to post increasing earnings but there may be a buying opportunity ahead. I remember several times in the past where Intel got ahead of itself and inventory built to levels where it had to write down massive amounts of obsolete chips. Obsolete to Intel can be a very short period due to their rapid development cycle. "Old" processor chips today may be 6-9 months old with multiple newer chips in production and others in the pipeline. Intel does not wait until they are scrap to write them off. They aggressively manage inventory and write off unsold chips quickly while they still have life at some price. I believe this is coming and could show as soon as Q3. Intel could begin an aggressive price cut strategy to dump the chips and that will again lower their margins. This will initially pressure the stock price. Intel is trading at $24.90 in after hours and under $25 is below prior support at $26. I suspect we will see an attempt to trade $24 and that is the last real support level before $20. I think it is a buy at $24 for long term investors but it is a REAL bargain at $20. I would jump on INTC leaps at any price between $20-$24 and average cost into a multi contract position. The next three months may be dead money but then long term is the key here. Juniper also announced earnings after the bell and beat analysts estimates by a mile. Juniper posted +8 cents compared to estimates of +4 cents and raised guidance for the future. Juniper was up +2.02 in after hours at $24.21 and well over the $21.99 close. They also announced a buyback of $250 million in stock. This is the way earnings are supposed to work. Going the other direction was Merrill Lynch which posted earnings that rose +10% but fell short of expectations. Merrill missed estimates due to weak trading results but showed gains in management fees and mutual fund commissions. Merrill said the firm lowered its risk profile from trading in Q2 after low market volume and low volatility made it more risky to trade. Welcome to the club! Merrill said on their call "it was a difficult trading month (June) and we made a conscious decision to reduce trading." With a $1 billion profit for the quarter the decision to reduce risk was probably a good call. They also announced another stock buyback of $2 bil. MER sank to a 52-week low and closed at 49.80. Next support is $45 and then $40 but I would be very surprised to see much more of a drop. A stock that is making $1+ billion per quarter and buying back $2 billion in stock, its second buyback of this size this year, will find buyers pretty quickly. This is another stock that should be in everybody's portfolio once the election is history. Red Hat turned into a dunce cap today after they said they would have to restate financial results for the last three years. RHAT said they do not expect a "material" effect on annual revenue or cash flow but traders immediately took the stock to the woodshed for a -22% whipping. RHAT dropped -$4.62 to close at $15.72. Red Hat was booking a full month of revenue for any monthly subscription started during the month. Under the new revision they will book revenue on a daily basis depending on when the subscription began. They estimate less than 3% of their revenue will be impacted by the change. The portion of the month that was not actually earned although collected will be deferred until the end of the contract. It does not go away it just gets deferred. The problem is not in the restatement but in confidence in the company. The companies outlook has not changed and with a record number of corporations finally looking at moving from the Microsoft dominated operating system market to a significantly cheaper alternative the future is bright. This must be my day for bargains because I view all the stocks above, INTC, MER, JNPR and RHAT as long term holds in any portfolio. The buying opportunities in three of them are gifts to traders looking to buy stocks on the cheap. The real problem here is looming in our future and it is not stock related. It is event related and we have a full calendar ahead. We have the Democratic convention on July 26th, Olympics Aug 13th to 29th, Republican convention on August 30th and finally the election in November. In the middle of that stretch there are the two weakest months of the year in Sept/Oct. The potential for a terrorist attack at one of those events may not be as high as in the past but the potential for thousands of news articles discussing the risk is about 100%. While I would want to recommend to investors to buy those four stocks on weakness today there is always the potential for another dip ahead. These fear factors are keeping investors on the sidelines with no urgency to buy. Volume has dried up faster than summer rain in Arizona. Volatility does not exist and we continue to be range bound but we could see a break in that range any day now. The Dow has been stuck in a range under 10250 since July 6th and that is exactly where we closed today. The market was primed and waiting for an Intel earnings win to send us higher. Futures are down about -4 points in overnight trading and it appears we will open down tomorrow. Our support is 10175 and the 200dma so the minor Intel problem may not attract enough selling interest to break us out of the range but just send us back to the bottom. SOX Chart - Daily The Semiconductor Index is right on the verge of a major crash. It has found support in the 440 range since May and we have tested it several times. The Intel news sent the vast majority of chip stocks down in after hours and this suggests the SOX will break this 440 support at the open. This is not good news for the Nasdaq or the Russell. The Nasdaq has more risk with a close today at 1931. The Nasdaq has initial risk to 1900 but the Juniper win could help offset the Intel weakness. The current Nasdaq pattern has moved from range bound to more of a decline but that could have been in anticipation of the Intel report. How the Nasdaq and the SOX react tomorrow to the Intel guidance will be a key but not the answer to the next few weeks of trading. The next major impact to the market could come from IBM on Thursday. If IBM does not trip then tech investors may start focusing on the positive comments from the blue chip giants and the bargain hunting could begin. I just expect that bargain hunting to be muted for the next month regardless of the earnings news. Even if everybody began beating estimates I doubt we would see a breakout move before Labor day. That keeps me thinking there is the potential for a low volume slide ahead and a better buying opportunity for all those stocks I listed above. Patient money is safe money and I plan on being very patient over the next six weeks. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Chips to Software to Natural Gas National Semiconductor - NSM - close: 18.99 change: -0.21 WHAT TO WATCH: Semiconductor stocks have had a rough month already and yesterday Merrill Lynch downgraded the entire industry. Today, after the closing bell, chip giant Intel report earnings and disappointed investors with light revenues and comments about lower gross margins for the year. We're expecting the SOX to trade lower tomorrow. Keep an eye on NSM for a possible breakdown below crucial support at the $18.00 level. --- Citrix Systems - CTXS - close: 17.29 change: -0.61 WHAT TO WATCH: Nimble traders may want to give CTXS another look. The sharp decline from $20 to $17 finally stalled and CTXS consolidated its losses under new resistance at $18.00. Today's failed rally at the $18.00 mark looks like a trade-worthy reversal but we'd use a trigger under $17.00 to initiate any new positions. Our biggest concern would be earnings coming up on July 21st as we would not hold over the event. Its weekly chart suggests traders could target the $15.00 mark. Yet its bearish P&F chart, which targets the $12.00 level, has support at $16.00. --- Quicksilver - KWK - close: 32.88 change: -1.01 WHAT TO WATCH: Primarily a natural gas play, shares of KWK have soared from their November lows near $13. Now after rising nearly non-stop from early June to July KWK is starting to falter after several days of sideways consolidation. Today's 3% drop was sparked by a downgrade. It's noteworthy that volume has been pretty strong on the two-day decline and its MACD has produced a new sell signal. We'd consider aggressive shorts with a drop through the $32.00 level and its 21-dma. Target the 50-dma. --- TRM Corp - TRMM - close: 16.44 change: +1.02 WHAT TO WATCH: TRMM might interest the bulls. Shares appear to have put in a substantial bottom between $11.60 and $15.00. Now shares have broken through resistance at their 40, 50, and 100- dma's while also pushing through the $15 and $16 levels. Its P&F chart is very bullish and points to a $28 target. We would consider doing more homework on this stock and potentially targeting the $20.00 level. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== Intel vs. Bastille Day - J. Brown It was another snoozer of a session on Wall Street. Everyone was waiting for Intel's earnings report after the closing bell. Even a sour earnings report from Merrill Lynch, who missed estimates by 3 cents, couldn't spark any volatility - except in the broker- dealer index. Overall investors almost seemed fatigued. We've wait so long for the Q2 earnings season to show up and now earnings, which are expected to come in pretty high, won't really matter as Wall Street focuses on guidance for what could be a lousy third quarter. Of course that's the way it normally works as the market discounts future events. By the closing bell market internals revealed just how slow it was. Advancing issues tied declining issues at 1400 each on the NYSE while decliners slipped past advancers 15 to 14 on the NASDAQ. Overall volume numbers were relatively light at less than 3.0 billion shares trading on both exchanges. Traders chose to rotate out of tech stocks ahead of Intel's earnings tonight and IBM's earnings on Thursday. Money also poured out of airline stocks as the XAL dove more than 4%. Tuesday's biggest winners were in the DJUSHB home construction index and the HMO healthcare index, both up about 2%. Now what's this talk about Bastille Day, France's equivalent to our own July 4th? It's probably just coincidence but the Stock Trader's Almanac has pegged July 14th as the market's best bet for a rally. According to the Almanac, by Hirsh Press, seasonal trends over the past 20 years point to July 14th as having the best odds for a gain in the S&P 500. Currently those odds are about 86.6%. Now the question is who will win tomorrow: Intel or Bastille Day? Intel reported earnings that were inline with estimates but came in light on revenues and issued negative comments about their gross margins slipping. One would normally expect this sort of news to depress stocks tomorrow, especially tech stocks. On the other hand Intel did issue a slightly positive forecast for its Q3 revenues. Plus, Juniper Networks (JNPR) announced earnings after the close and they blew past the estimates! Hmm.. it could be another close tug-of-war tomorrow but you have to admit the NASDAQ looks a little oversold, down 120 points in the month of July and traders seemed to be expecting bad news from Intel anyway. If you're a contrarian Bastille Day could be a winner! ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 8996 Current : 10247 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10279 50-dma: 10230 200-dma: 10189 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 960 Current : 1115 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1121 50-dma: 1117 200-dma: 1102 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1204 Current : 1428 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1462 50-dma: 1448 200-dma: 1444 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.46 -0.50 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 15.68 -0.39 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 21.42 -0.31 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.79 636,712 505,934 Equity Only 0.63 515,012 326,622 OEX 1.45 25,964 37,641 QQQ 1.03 52,976 54,348 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 65.6 + 0 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 48.0 + 0 Bull Alert Dow Indust. 66.7 - 3 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 61.6 - 1 Bear Correction S&P 100 64.0 - 1 Bear Correction Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.22 10-dma: 1.59 21-dma: 1.29 55-dma: 1.15 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1402 1447 Decliners 1400 1522 New Highs 60 29 New Lows 30 91 Up Volume 819M 482M Down Vol. 633M 976M Total Vol. 1475M 1500M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/06/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders continue to sit tight without much change in their bearish sentiment. Retail traders aren't changing their bullish tune much either but they have grown a bit more optimistic Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 06/15/04 428,905 444,197 (15,292) (1.8%) 06/22/04 407,842 415,462 ( 7,620) (0.9%) 06/29/04 405,273 413,351 ( 8,078) (0.9%) 07/06/04 402,952 416,526 (13,574) (1.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/15/04 169,595 115,336 54,259 19.0% 06/22/04 124,985 89,934 35,051 16.3% 06/29/04 129,978 94,535 35,443 15.7% 07/06/04 132,423 90,748 41,675 18.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Now we are seeing some money shuffling in the e-minis. Commercial traders have reduced their shorts and raised their long positions but remain overwhelmingly bearish. Small traders have pared back their bullish sentiment. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 06/15/04 440,867 522,546 (81,679) (8.5%) 06/22/04 229,290 446,974 (217,684) (32.2%) 06/29/04 258,443 447,505 (189,062) (26.7%) 07/06/04 287,442 423,583 (136,141) (19.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/15/04 216,759 147,247 69,512 19.1% 06/22/04 243,444 58,389 185,055 61.3% 06/29/04 236,492 47,780 188,712 66.3% 07/06/04 219,321 58,567 160,754 27.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders remain somewhat bullish on the NASDAQ 100 but only by a small margin. Small traders are much more bearish on technology. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 06/15/04 78,542 54,341 24,201 18.2% 06/22/04 40,397 37,413 2,984 3.8% 06/29/04 41,078 37,194 3,884 4.9% 07/06/04 42,245 37,343 4,902 6.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/15/04 15,794 35,880 (20,086) (38.9%) 06/22/04 9,311 9,950 (639) ( 3.3%) 06/29/04 7,437 11,904 (4,467) (23.1%) 07/06/04 9,345 16,527 (7,182) (27.8%) Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders continue to snooze with little change in their Dow Jones Industrials positions. Small traders have reduced their bearish attitude some but remain negative. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 06/15/04 30,438 24,766 5,672 10.3% 06/22/04 26,808 19,752 7,056 15.2% 06/29/04 27,278 20,512 6,766 14.1% 07/06/04 27,214 20,775 6,439 13.4% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/15/04 13,942 20,953 (7,011) (20.1%) 06/22/04 5,626 7,798 (2,172) (16.2%) 06/29/04 4,930 7,682 (2,752) (21.8%) 07/06/04 5,969 8,227 (2,258) (15.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 07-13-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: IMOS, FLML Closed Plays: QLGC, SWC Stock Splits: QCOM Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= IMOS - high risk/reward short - News that IMOS plans to offer another 7 million shares of stock in a secondary offernig at $5.50 a share sent the stock reeling for a 10% drop. Lower stop from $7.26 to $6.30 --- FLML - high risk/reward short- Lower stop from $23.06 to $22.06 ================================================================= Closed Plays ================================================================= QLogic Corp. - QLGC - close: 25.15 change: +0.25 stop: 26.51 QLGC continues to consolidate into a tighter and tighter coil as investors await the company's Q2 earnings report after the bell on Wednesday. Analysts' estimates for QLGC are at 36 cents a share. Per our comments in the weekend newsletter we are closing the play on Tuesday to avoid any earnings announcement surprises. Meanwhile it's worth noting that QLGC was trading under the $25 level in after hours trading after Intel failed to inspire any confidence in the group with its own earnings tonight. Picked on June 20th at $25.57 Change since picked - 0.42 Earnings Date 07/14/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume = 4.19 mln --- Stillwater Mining Co - SWC - close: 15.49 chg: +0.06 stop: 14.95 Ouch! Last night after the closing bell 900 of SWC's Montana employees decided to go on strike after rejecting a recent labor agreement. SWC said it would shut down its largest mine due to the strike. The stock gapped down to $14.80 and traded to $14.63 before bouncing sharply through the rest of the session. The opening bid was under our stop loss at $14.95 and immediately closed us out. Picked on July 07 at $16.05 Gain since picked: - 0.56 Earnings Date 07/30/04 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume: 630 thousand ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- QCOM wires up a 2-for-1 stock split and 40% dividend hike Before today's opening bell Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares as well as a 40 percent increase in its quarterly cash dividend. The stock split will be paid as a 100% stock dividend. The payable date for the stock split is August 13th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of July 23rd. In the same meeting, Qualcomm's dividend was boosted to 14 cents from 10 cents on a pre-split basis, and 7 cents to 5 cents on a post-split basis. The dividend will be payable on September 24th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of August 27th. About the company: QUALCOMM Incorporated (www.qualcomm.com) is a leader in developing and delivering innovative digital wireless communications products and services based on the Company's CDMA digital technology. Headquartered in San Diego, Calif., QUALCOMM is included in the S&P 500 Index and is a 2003 FORTUNE 500. company traded on The Nasdaq Stock Market. under the ticker symbol QCOM. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change FNM Fannie Mae 70.96 +0.82 NTT Nippon Telephone 26.96 +0.57 TGT Target Corp 43.64 +1.29 FRE Freddie Mac 65.23 +1.27 HMC Honda Motor Co 23.63 +0.74 UNH United Health 61.99 +1.45 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- HUM Humana Inc 17.31 +1.21 RML Russell Corp 18.92 +1.87 NARA Nara Bancorp 18.50 +1.22 OPTN Option Care 16.71 +2.50 TRMM TRM Corp 16.44 +1.02 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- MTG MGIC Investment 77.44 +3.82 COL Rockwell Collins 35.01 +1.31 FAST Fastenal Co 59.63 +5.22 PCP Precision Cast Parts 56.00 +1.90 HSIC Henry Schein 66.14 +3.99 MDC M.D.C. Holdings 65.80 +4.25 CYT Cytec Industries 48.23 +3.75 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- MER Merrill Lynch 49.80 -1.67 STT State Street 44.95 -4.56 AGN Allergan Inc 76.75 -5.16 ADTN Adtran Inc 25.56 -4.11 FIC Fair Isaac Inc 24.00 -7.36 ICOS ICOS Corp 23.07 -1.19 MIM MI Development 23.63 -2.72 CNMD Conmed 24.33 -1.96 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- KWK Quicksilver Resources 32.88 -1.01 NCRX Neighborcare 28.96 -1.03 TZOO Travelzoo 25.20 -4.55 IMO Imperial Oil 47.22 -0.48 PDS Precision Drilling 48.22 -0.74 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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