PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 07-14-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: A Setup Watch List: More Tech Heading Lower Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) =============================================================== MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) =============================================================== 07-14-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10208.80 - 38.79 10286.89 10172.39 1.78 bln 1336/1467 NASDAQ 1914.88 - 16.78 1937.68 1908.98 2.08 bln 1114/1876 S&P 100 541.79 - 2.21 546.01 539.90 Totals 2450/3343 S&P 500 1111.47 - 3.67 1119.60 1107.83 RUS 2000 559.74 - 2.95 565.88 557.66 DJ TRANS 3085.22 + 5.48 3107.87 3058.57 VIX 13.76 - 0.70 16.59 13.34 VXO 15.10 - 0.58 16.16 14.43 VXN 21.64 + 0.22 22.37 21.07 Total Volume 4,221M Total UpVol 1,357M Total DnVol 2,804M 52wk Highs 136 52wk Lows 210 TRIN 1.52 PUT/CALL 0.94 =============================================================== =========== Market Wrap =========== A Setup Linda Piazza Disappointment over some aspects of Intel's earnings report set markets up for a decline in Wednesday's trading. The parade of warnings from after Tuesday's close and before Wednesday's open also contributed, with those warnings coming from ELMG, IMN, LIN, and KOMG, perhaps among others. Despite gains in banking stocks, tech weakness in Asia sent the Nikkei 2.17 percent lower. European bourses headed lower. So did our futures. Merrill Lynch trimmed its earnings estimates for the bellwether tech stock, INTC, and Deutsche Bank made negative comments about the company's inventories. Prudential cut INTC's rating to neutral. The setup was perfect. At 8:30, the release of June's import and export prices and retail sales also contributed to anticipated weakness in the markets. May's imports had risen 0.2 percent, and exports had risen 0.4 percent. June's imports dropped 0.2 percent, with the ex-oil number flat. June's exports dropped 0.6 percent, with the ex-ag number dropping 0.1 percent. Exports are the most closely watched of the export/import numbers since they indicate demand for U.S. goods overseas, but also since the import number lags other indicators. The numbers were termed soft, and the setup was almost complete. Retail sales might have been the most closely watched of all the numbers released Wednesday morning, with overseas analysts mentioning U.S. retail sales frequently over the last week. Although retail sales can be volatile, they're indicative of one component of consumer spending patterns. May's retail sales had risen 1.2 percent and 0.7 percent ex-auto, but economists had forecast a 0.7 percent drop for June. Instead, June's retail sales fell a greater-than-expected 1.1 percent, with May's retail sales revised up to a 1.4 percent gain. June's auto sales fell 4.3 percent, their deepest cut since February 2003, according to one article. Ex-auto retail sales fell 0.2 percent in June. The setup was complete. Despite the disappointing export and retail sales numbers, futures displayed little reaction at first. They had dropped after the Intel announcement after hours Tuesday and drifted down near the overnight lows just prior to the 8:30 announcements. They drifted slightly lower. Juniper Network's overnight announcement that it expected Q3 earnings to exceed analysts' expectations sent that stock higher by 9 percent in the pre-market but did little to stem tech weakness. Earnings announcements pre-open included Bank of America's better-than-expected results, but that wasn't enough, either. The setup worked. For a few minutes. Cash markets displayed the expected weakness at the open, with the SOX plunging through the 440 level to a morning low of 420.69. The TRAN dropped low enough to test last Friday's low. The Nasdaq opened below its 200-ema after closing beneath it Tuesday for the first time since May's weakness, with the Nasdaq then dropping to 1908.98. The Dow fell low enough to touch its 200-sma, perhaps helping to trigger the V-shaped recovery that soon began. That rebound proved impulsive, to borrow OIN Market Monitor commentator Keene Little's expression. At first markets seemed little disturbed by news of an explosion in Iraq that killed Mosul's governor or the Department of Energy's revelation that crude inventories fell 2.1 billion against an expected climb. The API's industry figures showed an even larger drop of 5.1 billion, with the two figures seldom agreeing. Gasoline stocks also fell against an expectation of a small rise. Even the TRAN chugged higher, stretching above 3100 again. The initial lack of response may have been due to the rise in distillate inventories, perhaps hinting that those inventories had just been shifting up the refining food chain from crude to distillates. Perhaps the lack of response was due to a formation on the intraday chart of the crude futures that hinted that futures were unlikely to move above $40.00/barrel. Once crude futures moved above $40.00 at about 1:00 EST, however, indices dove. Annotated 30-Minute Chart of Crude Futures: Annotated 30-Minute Chart of the SPX: The official Fed-speak line lately has been that inflationary pressures due to rising energy costs will be transitory. Market watchers have also noted that consumer sentiment usually isn't dented too heavily by rising gasoline costs as long as consumers feel those costs are temporary. Lately, however, a retailer blamed lowered sales on the bite higher gasoline costs were taking out of customer's spending. While tomorrow might see conciliatory statements out of OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, a continued rise in crude prices should continue to pressure equities. Also exerting pressure was the 4.48 percent drop in the SOX. Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX: While a bounce back up to test broken support at 440 can't be ruled out, neither can a test of 406 likely support. However, as dire as the SOX's chart looks, the Nasdaq's offers some hope that the decline in that index may be almost over on the short term. Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq: Confirmation of the possible reversal signal would occur with an open tomorrow above today's close, preferably a gap higher opening, and then a continued climb. Any reversal might be short lived, however, consisting of a rise to test broken support, perhaps near the midline of the descending regression channel or perhaps a bit higher, near the 1960 former support or the 50-dma, now at 1964.78. The Russell 2000 also offers hope of a possible bounce, but one that might be short lived. Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000: A drop through the Russell 2000's 557.70-ish support instead would suggest a possible retest of May's low. The Dow clung to recent support, managing a close above the 200- sma and the midline of its descending regression channel, prepared for a downturn through that channel or a rise up to test Wednesday's high and then the 100-dma and perhaps 10,300-10,350, with each step dependent on a successful retest of lower resistance. Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow: The SPX also continues to bounce from tests of the midline support of its descending regression channel, although the term "bounce" must be loosely applied. The SPX has not retested its 200-sma, but market participants should watch for a possible test of that average, now at 1,102.65, as it was touches of that SPX average that bounced markets in May. A failure to bounce on a test this time could send the SPX toward 1,090 and then toward the bottom of its regression channel, sending other indices lower, too, but market bears should probably prepare for at least a tepid bounce attempt if that average should be touched. Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX: Did anything change in after hours to change the pictures on these charts? After-hours earnings included INTC competitor AMD, with the company saying that higher sales produced a Q2 profit in comparison to the year-ago loss. Reports characterized earnings as being in line with estimates. At the time this report was prepared, AMD was trading at $13.33, down from the close at $13.74. AAPL's earnings of 16 cents/share beat expectations for 15 cents per share. Sales of $2.014 billion also beat expectations for sales of $1.94 billion. As this report was prepared, AAPL was trading at $29.70, up from the close at $29.58. QLGC and SNDK also reported after hours, with both gaining after hours. QLGC traded at $25.68 as this report was prepared, up from the close at $24.50. QLGC reported earnings in line with expectations. SNDK had climbed to $23.82 as this report was prepared, up significantly from the close at $19.98. SNDK beat forecasts by 8 cents a share. Revenue was $433.29 million against expectations of $410.89 million. Nasdaq futures climbed after the cash close, at least keeping alive the possibility that it could deliver on the suggested reversal signal. Dow and SPX futures climbed, too, building hope that they could cling to midline support on their descending regression channels. In a climate of increasing fuel costs, however, those hopes prove tenuous, and an 8:30 report tomorrow could explode them. Thursday's economic reports include the much-awaited June PPI, to be released at 8:30. For more than a week, I've been reading reports on forex-related sites about how the dollar has been pressured by worries about the PPI. May's core PPI, excluding food and energy costs, had shown a 0.3 percent increase, with expectations for June's number at a 0.2 percent rise. May's PPI had shown an 0.8 percent increase, with expectations for June's number from a flat number to a 0.2 percent increase. A much higher than expected PPI number could damage any hopes for a bounce. Also to be released Thursday morning are the initial claims numbers, with last week's claims at 310 thousand and with expectations for a rise to 335-340 thousand. For two weeks in June, we saw the claims number surprise to the downside, with the lower-than-expected number attributed to Federal holidays during the week. We'll see if expectations have been managed better this time with the July 4th holiday falling within the current reporting week. Economic reports won't conclude with these releases, however. An additional 8:30 release includes the NY Empire State Index for July, with the index at 30.2 for June and forecast to measure 28 for July. At 9:15, June's capacity utilization and industrial production numbers will be released. At noon, the Philly Fed releases July's index, with the prior number at 28.9 and expectations for 25. At 2:00, the Treasury Budget figures for June will be released, with the previous number at $21.2 billion. In addition, more than 100 companies report Thursday, including Citigroup (C, before the open), Cypress Semiconductor (CY, before the open), Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS, before the open), Marriott International (MAR, before the open), Nokia (NOK, before the open), Pepsico (PEP, before the open), Southwest Airlines (LUV, before the open), Stryker (SYK, after the close), and UnitedHealth Group (UNH, before the open). As should be obvious from this detailing of only some of the economic and earnings reports due tomorrow, market participants will have much to digest on this option-expiration Thursday. The pin-them-to-the-numbers game usually begins Thursday afternoon, too, so that any move higher might be tempered or reversed by any one of those numbers, technical considerations as indices reach the top of recent consolidation zones, higher crude prices, or that usual pin-them-to-the numbers tendency. During May's consolidation, false breakouts occurred with increasing frequency as time progressed, and that may be happening now, too. As this report is written, markets look ready to attempt a bounce, but those bounces will be bounces into consolidation zones or proven resistance, so trade them with care if you must trade at all. Trade has been choppy within those consolidation zones, and may grow choppier still, as May's pattern proved and today confirmed. If markets instead head lower tomorrow, bears should keep that SPX 200-sma on the radar screen, making plans as to how you'll handle tests of that moving average from which the markets bounced in May. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- More Tech Heading Lower Zoran Corp - ZRAN - close: 14.79 change: -0.52 WHAT TO WATCH: Chips stocks have been hammered this month and last night's earnings report from Intel and Intel's gap down today didn't help any. ZRAN, another semiconductor stock, tried to produce an oversold bounce today but failed again. The drop under the $15.00 level looks like a bearish entry point but ZRAN does have some support near $14.63 from last October. Plus, the company is expected to report earnings on July 22nd. P&F chart readers will notice the new spread triple-bottom breakdown sell signal and $9.00 target. --- Insight Enterprises - NSIT - close: 16.16 change: -0.44 WHAT TO WATCH: Bears are probably circling around NSIT as it drifts lower and lower toward key support at the $16.00 level. NSIT has consistently bounced from this level since last October but this time the trend looks rather weak and we could see a breakdown. Such a drop under the $16.00 level would produce a new triple-bottom sell signal on its P&F chart, which currently points to a $12.00 target. Watch out for earnings on July 22nd. --- Imagistics Intl Inc - IGI - close: 33.33 change: -0.66 WHAT TO WATCH: The bearish descent in IGI continues. Shares recently broke support at the $35.00 region and its MACD has produced another sell signal. The selling appears to be picking up steam and traders might want to target a drop toward the $30.00 level. Its P&F chart is bearish and points to a $25.00 target. Look for earnings on July 29th. --- Standard Microsystems - SMSC - close: 18.33 change: -0.28 WHAT TO WATCH: SMSC is another semiconductor stock that is not seeing any signs of a bounce. Shares recently round-number, psychological support at the $20.00 mark and its P&F chart looks very bearish. One caveat - SMSC is nearing a trendline of lower lows that could be support. ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change FNM Fannie Mae 71.17 +0.21 UNH Unitedhealth Group Inc. 62.41 +0.42 NSANY Nissan Motor Co Ltd (ADR) 21.63 -0.57 KMB Kimberly Calrk Corp 66.13 +0.16 FRE Freddie Mac 65.85 +0.62 WLP Wellpoint Health Network 113.62 +0.72 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- NARA Nara Bancorp Inc 18.62 +0.12 OPTN Option Care Inc 17.24 +0.53 TRMM TRM Corporation 16.70 +0.26 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- AET Aetna Inc New 86.57 +0.14 COL Rockwell Collins Inc 35.42 +0.41 PMI PMI Group Inc. 43.70 +0.52 FAST Fastenal Company 60.30 +0.67 RDN Radian Group 48.65 +0.05 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- STT State Street Corp 44.62 -0.33 AGN Allergan Inc 77.00 +0.25 KLAC Kla-Tencor Corp 40.22 -3.11 DST DST Systems Inc 44.69 -0.06 JBLU Jetblue Airways Corp 24.88 -0.64 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- BLK Blackrock Incorporated 64.55 -0.17 APL Atlas Pipeline Prtnrs Lp 35.00 -0.52 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 07-14-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: FRED, IMOS, VISG, FLML Net Bulls (Tech Stocks) New Bearish Plays: BOBJ, CCBL High Risk/Reward New Bearish Plays: SINA Closed Bearish Plays: SOHU ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== FRED - non-tech short play - Lower stop from $21.51 to $20.76 We're moving the stop to the simple 50-dma. --- IMOS - high risk/reward short play - No change in stop but traders might want to consider taking some profits now that IMOS is down 18% from our picked price. --- VISG - high risk/reward short play - No change in stop at $8.01 but VISG did break support at the $7.00 mark intraday. More conservative traders might want to consider tighter stops. --- FLML - high risk/reward short play - No change in stop at $22.06 but the rebound today looks dangerous. Set a mental note to be ready to exit if FLML trades above 21.00 or 21.50. ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Business Objects - BOBJ - close: 20.04 chg: -0.26 stop: 21.01 Company Description: Business Objects is the world's leading business intelligence (BI) software company. Business intelligence enables organizations to track, understand, and manage enterprise performance. The company's solutions leverage the information that is stored in an array of corporate databases, enterprise resource planning (ERP), and customer relationship management (CRM) systems. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: Software stocks have been huge under performers and for good reason. Several companies in the group, especially enterprise software, have issued earnings warnings. Investors are growing more cautious on BOBJ over concerns that the company could warn or merely miss estimates when it reports earnings on July 28th. France-based BOBJ trades on the NASDAQ as an ADR and tends to gap open up or down every day as it adjusts to trading overseas on the French stock exchange. That may turn off some traders. Make sure you're comfortable with that level of volatility. Technically the stock appears to be in a wide, descending channel while its MACD is in a sell signal. Its P&F chart is bearish and points to a $15.00 target. That doesn't seem to be too far off the mark. Here's our plan. We only want to go short if BOBJ trades at or below our TRIGGER point of $19.80. It's very possible BOBJ could gap below this level. Our target will be the $16.00-15.00 range with an initial stop loss at $21.01 Annotated Chart: Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 07/28/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 933 thousand --- C-COR.net - CCBL - close: 8.34 chg: -0.44 stop: 8.51 Company Description: C-COR is a top-tier global provider of optical packet and digital video transport communications products; end-to-end fiber-to-the- premise systems; comprehensive OSS solutions; and high-end technical outsourced field services--all supporting cost- effective delivery of voice, video, and high-speed data over advanced broadband networks. Headquartered in the U.S. with facilities worldwide, C-COR's mission is to provide our customers with second-to-none network integrity throughout the full network life cycle. C-COR's common stock is listed on the Nasdaq National Market (Symbol: CCBL) and is a component of the Russell 2000 Stock Index. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: We're adding CCBL to the play list as a relative weakness- breakdown play. The stock has been consolidating sideways between $8.00-10.00 for more than two months. The recent breakout attempt over $10.00 failed and now shares are slipping toward major support at $8.00. A breakdown here could lead to a decline towards the $5.00-$6.00 range. The P&F chart is all over the map with a recent sell and buy signal following each other but the prevailing trend is obviously down. Investors don't seem to be buying the analysts' comments that demand for networking solutions is going to pick up in the next several months. Our plan is to only go short if CCBL breaks down through support at the $8.00 mark. We will use a TRIGGER at $7.95 with an initial target of $6.00. Once triggered we'll use a stop loss at $8.51. Annotated Chart: Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 08/19/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 621 thousand ================================================================== High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Sina Corp - SINA - close: 26.18 change: +0.36 stop: 28.01 Company Description: SINA Corporation is a leading online media company and value- added information service (VAS) provider for China and for global Chinese communities. With a branded network of localized web sites targeting Greater China and overseas Chinese, SINA provides services through five major business lines including SINA.com (online news and content), SINA Mobile (mobile value-added services), SINA Online (community-based services and games), SINA.net (search and enterprise services) and SINA E-Commerce (online shopping and travel). Together these provide an array of services including region-focused online portals, mobile value- added services, search and directory, interest-based and community-building channels, free and premium email, online games, virtual ISP, classified listings, fee-based services, e- commerce and enterprise e-solutions. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: We just wrapped up a successful short on SOHU so we're going to try our luck with another one on SINA. It's been a rough couple of weeks for SINA. The stock fell through support at $35.00 and its 40 and 50-dma's at the end of June while also breaking down from a bear-flag pattern. SINA has already reached the bear-flag target while being dragged lower after fellow Chinese Internet NTES issued a revenue warning about a week ago. Since then we've seen SINA struggle to rebound despite being so heavily oversold. The stock has found new resistance at the $28.00 level while we're seeing new lower lows over the last few days. We feel there is an opportunity here because SINA is at crucial support near $25.00. A breakdown under $25.00 would be extremely bearish on its daily, weekly and P&F charts. However, SINA is not without risk. Here are our main concerns: SINA is a Chinese Internet and the group has been very volatile. There is a risk that all the rumors about YHOO making a merger play for SINA could come true. There is a risk of a short squeeze with short interest about 25% of the float. Plus, we only have two weeks before SINA's earnings report and at this time we would not hold over the announcement. Here's our plan. We will ONLY suggest shorts if SINA trades at or below our TRIGGER at $24.95. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $28.01 Our target is the $18-$20 range. Annotated Chart: Picked on July xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 07/27/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 5.2 million ============ Closed Plays ============ Closed Bearish Plays -------------------- Sohu.com - SOHU - close: 16.28 change: +0.41 stop: 16.76 We're not sure what fueled the bullish bounce in the Chinese Internets today unless it was news that NTES' CEO was returning to the company after a medical leave of absence. SOHU could have traded higher in sympathy to NTES. The intraday high today in SOHU was $16.81 and that was enough to stop us out at $16.76 for a drop of $4.38 or 20 percent from the picked priced. SOHU is very oversold and overdue for a bounce so we're not surprised that shorts are nervous. Readers have had multiple opportunties to exit at our original target of $16.00 and we applaud anyone able to exit on the dips toward the $15.60 level. Look for our new aggressive play on SINA tonight. Picked on June 20 at $21.14 Gain since picked: - 4.86 Earnings Date 07/28/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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