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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 07-21-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:  Key Downside Reversal
Watch List:

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     07-21-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10046.13 -102.94 10237.12 10045.61 2.06 bln    625/2208
NASDAQ   1847.37 - 42.70  1933.03  1847.37 2.08 bln    728/2280
S&P 100   533.02 -  6.63   544.04   533.02   Totals   1353/4488
S&P 500  1093.88 - 14.79  1116.27  1093.88
RUS 2000  548.57 - 15.62   566.03   548.57
DJ TRANS 3087.13 - 67.62  3171.66  3087.00
VIX        16.41 +  2.24    16.46    13.91
VXO        16.14 +  1.56    16.14    14.15
VXN        22.15 +  1.24    22.17    19.79
Total Volume 4,542M
Total UpVol    751M
Total DnVol  3,755M
52wk Highs     169
52wk Lows      233
TRIN          1.56
PUT/CALL      0.76
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Key Downside Reversal
Jonathan Levinson

The MSFT rally carried the markets to a strong open that failed
immediately for the Nasdaq while carrying the Dow and SPX until
11AM before the decline kicked in.  What appeared destined to be
a technical correction based on overbought intraday oscillators
turned into a relentless decline that completely reversed
yesterday's gains for the Nasdaq, SPX and the Dow, breaking the
previous day's lows in all 3 cases.

MSFT held most of its gains, but the tech sector was a mess in
general.  Investors had long expected MSFT to do something with
its hoard of cash once the threat of its multiple lawsuits had
lifted.  Many expected the company to purchase other tech
companies, such as SAP, SEBL, ORCL.  By repurchasing its own
stock and issuing a dividend, the company's message might have
been interpreted as a negative judgment on its perception of
growth prospects for the sector going forward.  In any event,
MSFT fared far better than the broader markets, with the Nasdaq
taking a precipitous plunge of 2.23% and printing a key downside
reversal, having broken yesterday's high at the open and closing
below its low at the close.  The Nasdaq closed lower by 42 points
at 1874, while the Dow lost 103 points to close at 10046.

Weekly Dow Chart


The Dow is breaking below the rising weekly support line the
retest of Monday's low and undoing what had been a downside doji
spike until this afternoon.  The weekly cycle picture has managed
to remain as ambiguous as it's been for the past three weeks,
with the price decline continuing but at a lackluster pace, such
that the 10-week stochastic looks bullish while the Macd is
bearish.  As I've had occasion to discuss with respect to this
and other charts over the course of the past month, we often see
gap moves to resolve trendline tests, and with this week's candle
currently rejecting moves both above and below it, a break in
either direction is imminent.  As has been occurring with
increasing regularity lately, the oscillators are in an ambiguous
state waiting for price to resolve the dilemma.  A weekly close
below Dow 10000 or above 10250 will determine direction to the
downside or upside, respectively, while a break above 10300 would
suggest a bull flag and a retest of the year high at 10795 for
starters.  We've seen the 9800-10200 level as a key confluence
for several years, and a break below the rising trendline would
suggest a test of that lower level.


Daily Dow Chart


The upper doji shadow which printed as the day's gains were
authoritatively wiped out with a close at the day lows is a very
bearish formation, a gravestone doji.  Note that the highs
actually broke all the previous highs to last Thursday, while the
low exceed the week's low and set a new low for the daily cycle
downphase.  The oscillators continue to suggest a bottom forming,
and while the daily candle portends more damage to come tomorrow,
the oscillators suggest the formation of a cycle trough underway.
With the intraday oscillators oversold as of the session close, a
bounce is to be expected- but bulls will want to see the rising
trendline at 10080 recovered on the way to a test of 10145.


Weekly Nasdaq Chart


The weekly chart of the Nasdaq is clearer than that of the Dow,
and looks more bearish on a cycle basis.  The bull flag is
evident here as on the Dow, but it's looking long in the tooth
and tired.  Today's reversal lower off the bottom of the rising
weekly support line is a bearish failure, marking the second week
below the line.  There still remain tomorrow's and Friday's
sessions to reverse today's decline, and this week's candle is
still up for grabs.  But if it closes at or below current levels,
we'll have a weekly gravestone doji and an imminent rollover in
the 10-week stochastic.  Resistance is in the 1950 area, with
Bollinger support at 1865, below which there's confluence at 1850
and flag support at the 1760 Fibonacci level.


Daily Nasdaq Chart


The daily Nasdaq candle didn't get the benefit of an upper shadow
because the decline commenced immediately at the gap-up opening
levels and continued until the close at the day lows.  The
oscillators on the daily look similar to that of the Dow, but
interestingly, the low of the week was not broken.  1865 is the
next support in this timeframe, and as noted in the Market
Monitor, a break below it would put the daily cycle oscillators
in position for a trending move in oversold territory.  That's
the lower probability outcome, and if it occurs, it will be
because the longer weekly cycle is dominant, overwhelming the
daily cycle which is currently in a trough and due to begin its
upphase.


Weekly TNX Chart


Bonds slid today, with the TNX rising 3.9 bps to close at 4.487%
after trading both sides of the 4.5% resistance line.  The daily
cycle oscillators (not shown) printed the first buy signals from
oversold territory, just starting an upphase that portends more
weakness for bonds for the coming sessions.  Resistance above
4.5% is at 4.64%, followed by 4.75% and 4.8%.  This daily cycle
upphase runs counter to the weekly cycle downphase on the chart
above, projecting to a retest of support at the 4.02% level.
Often, juxtaposition of two cycles results in uncertain sideways
chop, and we've been seeing that for the past two weeks.  With
any luck, we'll see a range break by the end of the month to
resolve the uncertainty in one direction or the other.  Downside
support is at 4.4% and 4.32% for the TNX.

There were no significant economic data released today, with the
market news dominated by Fed releases and earnings reports.
The Mortgage Bankers Association reporting that its Market Index
declined 4% to  617.9 for the week ending July 19.  The Purchase
Index, which measures requests for loans with which to make home
purchase, declined 6.1% to 440.3 while the Refinancing Index was
lower by 0.7% to 1,651.1.  Interest rates were mostly flat to
slightly lower during that period.

The American Petroleum Institute that crude oil inventories for
the week ending July 16 rose 38,000 barrels to 300.1M, while the
Energy Department reported a drop of 3.6M barrels. The two
organizations frequently disagree as to the weekly changes.
According to the API, gasoline stocks rose by 3.9M barrels (the
Energy Department reported a 2.5M barrel increase) to 212.6M
while distillate stocks declined 59,000 (rose by 1.7M barrels
according to the government) to 116.6M barrels.  For the day,
crude oil futures closed higher by 14 cents at 40.58

Philly Fed President Santomero was out this morning ahead of
Greenspan's testimony before Congress, noting that while recent
economic data has been disappointing, it should be interpreted in
the context of an upward trend of a strengthening economy.  He
expects consumer spending to expand while inflation remains at
acceptable levels.  He expects the Fed funds rate to rise at a
"measured pace", but that such pace would ultimately depend on
the prevailing data.

Chairman Greenspan addressed the House Financial Services
Committee with the same text presented yesterday to the Senate
Banking Committee, reiterating the message that the Fed views
current conditions as being reflective of a healthy expanding
economy.  The economy should no longer require the strong
accommodation afforded by the pegging of overnight rates near
current low levels, and that rate hikes would take place at a
measured pace.  He expects that rising income from increased
employment will bolster consumer spending.  He expects inflation
to remain tame, but indicated that more aggressive increases to
the overnight rate would be appropriate if inflation were to
flare up.  He also indicated that from now on, the Fed would base
its outlook for inflation on the Core Personal Consumption
Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (which strips out food and oil
prices) rather than the overall PCE as it had formerly done.

Chairman Greenspan, in response to a question about asset
bubbles, told the Committee that he felt that the Fed had
successfully minimized the "great distortions" that can result
from its measures, and mentioned the current unwinding of the
carry trade occurring in response to the reduction in Fed
stimulus this year.

In an afternoon speech to the Dallas Rotary Club, Dallas Fed
chief McTeer repeated the view that the current soft patch in the
economic data is just that.  He acknowledged, however, that while
energy prices are volatile and, in his view, temporary, he went
on to state that "over time, people use gasoline and electricity,
and you can't ignore it forever... At some point you have to say
the headline number is the relevant one.  [...]The little upward
movement in inflation we've had over the last two or three months
means that a 1% fed-funds rate is lower in real terms than it
was. And so, even though we raised the target rate a quarter
point, it's probably lower in real terms than it was before we
did that, because of inflation."  He reiterated the opinion that
job growth would accelerate.

Overall, the currency markets were impressed with the Fed's
releases for the day, with the US Dollar Index rising to the 89
level, a 2-week high, and gold, euros and silver all declining to
new lows for the week.

There was a plethora of earnings reported throughout the session
and covered in the email updates and Market Monitor postings.
Some highlights include UTX, which reported  Q2 net income of
$1.66 per share, up from $1.26 and exceeding expectations of
$1.58 per share.  UTX closed higher by 2.32% at 92.67.

MRK announced Q2 earnings of 79 cents per share, unchanged from
last year and meeting analyst estimates.  Total earnings were
1.78B.  Global sales were higher by 9% to 6B, exceeding estimates
for 5.9B. PFE beat by a penny, announcing Q2 EPS at $0.47 per
share.  MRK closed lower by .51% at 44.60.

AMR reported Q2 earnings of 3 cents a share or $6M, compared with
a loss of 47 cents in Q2 2003. The gains were mostly based on
government grants, with a net loss of 15 cents per share
stripping out one-time special items.  This was 5 cents worse
than estimates of a 10 per share loss.  The stock got hit for a
5.98% loss to close at 8.81.  NWAC lost $182M or $2.11 per share
compared with a profit of $2.45 in Q2 2003.  Fuel costs were a
factor cited in both reports.  Losses were 90 cents excluding
one-time charges, beating expectations of a 1.21 per share loss.
NWAC lost 5.15% to close at 8.48, and the XAL index fell 4.25% to
close at 4.687.

IMCL got smoked for 19.01% as of this writing on what the media
attributed to disappointment over sales of the firm's Erbitux
cancer treatment.  Q2 revenue was $71.5M, up from $17.9 million
in Q2 2003 but down from $109.6M in Q1 2004, which had received a
boost from one-time payments. Revenue from sales of Erbitux came
in 4M below expectations of 75M, and the Company announced that
its application for Erbitux would be filed in 2005 rather than in
the second half of 2004 as previously expected.  Friedman,
Billings, Ramsey downgraded the company to "neutral" from "buy".

GM's profit rose 49% in Q2 on gains attributed to its financial
services division as its global and North American market share
declined.  Earnings were $2.36 per share or $1.34B, beating
estimates of $2.24 per share and up from Q2 2003's $1.58 per
share or $901M.  The stock fell .57% to close at 43.35.

After the bell, EBAY reported earnings of 28 cents per share or
$190M, up from 91.8M or 14 cents per share in Q2 2003, beating
expectations of 27 cents.  Sales increased over the previous
quarter and the company raised its earnings target for the year
to $1.17 per share, which was below analysts' expectations of
$1.19.  The stock was trading lower by 10.61% at 70.42 as of this
writing.

MXO met expectations with a 26.1M net loss for the quarter, 11
cents per share.  Excluding one-time items,  the company missed
lowered estimates by a penny and came in light on revenue.  MXO
was down 4.5% at 5.52 after hours.

QCOM beat estimates by 4 cents with earnings of 57 cents per
share or $483M, and issued guidance of $2.15-$2.18 per share,
above estimates of $2.06.  QCOM was lower by 3.14% at 67.35 as of
this writing.  SEBL met reduced expectations of 2 cents per share
after warning earlier in July, with revenue of $301.1 against
expectations of $303M.  The stock was down 3.35% at 7.78 as of
this writing.  ATVI got smoked after beating expectations of 5
cents per share on $189M in revenue with earnings of 8 cents per
share on $211.3M revenue- the stock was lower by 8.86% at 14.40.

There's a trader's clichi about a rising tide buoying all ships
or something to that effect, and the general reaction to earnings
news today was to sell.  Be it the softness of the economic data
alluded to by the various Fed chiefs today, or Greenspan's and
McTeer's acknowledgment of the unsustainability of an overnight
rate at current low levels and the threat that rising inflation
would force the Fed's hand- whatever the reason, the markets were
in a selling mood, with bonds, stocks, precious metals and
foreign currencies going over the side.  This rising
dollar/falling-everything-else trade is the reverse of the trend
that gave us the stellar 2003 rally.

The daily cycle trough is troublesome here, because it ups the
ante for traders.  On the one hand, it is trying to turn up from
a likely bottom.  If it does, we have little reason to doubt a
multiweek bounce.  If it does not, however, the selling could be
violent and would suggest more serious bearishness going out to
the longer timeframes.  Any trader who's been close to the
markets for the past three years has learned not to be religious
about a direction, and I'm ready to accept either one from here.
If today's lows don't produce the bounce required by the intraday
cycles, then a retest of the year lows could be mere hours away.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

The A list

ACE Ltd - ACE - close: 39.58 change: -0.78

WHAT TO WATCH: Insurance stocks have been unusually weak the last
few days.  ACE has broken through technical support at its simple
200-dma and today's drop pushed it through the psychological,
round-number support at $40.00.  Volume was 2 1/2 times normal on
Tuesday yet we can't find a catalyst.  We'd consider bearish
positions but ACE is expected to announce earnings on July 27th.




---

Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 20.34 change: -0.99

WHAT TO WATCH: Airline stocks were hit hard today as the XAL
index produced a very bearish failed rally.  ALK joined in with a
failed rally of its own near the 50-dma.  Today's 4.6% drop also
looks like a bearish "dark cloud cover" candlestick pattern.  ALK
is expected to report earnings tomorrow morning before the open.
Should they disappoint bears can look for a drop under the July
low at $19.78 as a new entry point.




---

Avon Products - AVP - close: 43.21 change: -1.38

WHAT TO WATCH: AVP has been climbing a rising channel for more
than five months.  The stock has finally broken through the
bottom of its channel and technical support at its 40 and 50-
dma's and the $44.00 mark.  A 38.2% retracement would be a drop
to the $40.60 level and a 50% retracement would put AVP near
$38.75.  The only challenges for the bears are possible support
at the simple 100-dma (currently 41.25) and potential support at
the psychological $40.00 level.  Don't forget to plan your trade
around AVP's July 28th earnings report.




---

Administaff Inc - ASF - close: 13.96 change: -0.34

WHAT TO WATCH: Suffering like most of the market through July
shares of ASF have been consolidating the last few days near
support at $14.00.  Today's 2.3% loss has painted a bearish "dark
cloud cover" candlestick pattern.  We would be tempted to
consider new bearish positions on a drop through $13.60.
Currently ASF's P&F chart has produced a bearish triple-bottom
breakdown sell signal with a $10.50 target.  Watch out for
earnings on August 2nd.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

ZNT $46.30 -1.64 - ZNT has broken through the bottom of its
rising channel.  Look for a drop to $42.50, which would be a
38.2% retracement or a drop to $40.00, which would be a 50%
retracement.  Bears should be cautious around the 100-dma (near
$44), which could be support.

ROG $59.13 -4.60 - We listed ROG in the watch list yesterday due
to its technical breakdown and shares produced a 7.2% drop today.
The close under the $60 mark is bearish and it broke the 100-dma
as well.


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

UTX     United Technologies Corp   92.67    +2.10
FOX     FOX Entertainment Grp      27.14    -0.20
GCI     Gannett Co Inc             82.29    +0.54
NCC     National City Corp         35.81    -0.02
LEH     Lehman Bros Hldg Inc       69.31    -0.14


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

AMTD    Ameritrade Holding Corp    10.60    -0.11
URI     United Rentals Inc         19.45    +0.46
AEN     AMC Entertainment Inc      17.16    -0.34
RIGL    Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc  13.24    -0.23


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

NVS     Novartis AG (ADS)          45.42    -0.30
MCK     McKesson Corp              31.90    -0.09
ZION    Zionz Bancorporation       63.17    -1.00
CDWC    CDW Corp                   61.26    -0.42
ICBC    Independence Commun Bank   37.91    +0.40


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

HIG     Hartford Fncl Srvcs Grp    63.41    -0.59
ACE     Ace Ltd                    39.58    -0.78
XL      XL Capital Ltd             70.41    -1.53
XTO     XTO Energy Inc             28.86    -0.29
PCL     Plum Creek Timber Reit     31.56    -0.32


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

BRKB    Berkshire Hathaway CI B  2994.00    -2.00
SDA     Sadia S. A.                40.80    -0.60
PD      Phelps Dodge Corp          74.53    -2.30
FCX     Freeport Mcmoran C&G B     33.50    -1.30
BVN     Compania De Minas Buena    21.30    -1.45


=================================================================
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send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
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Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 07-21-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  SRE, WMB

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  New Bearish Plays:    CMTL


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

SRE - non-tech long play -
 Danger! Danger Will Robinson!
 Energy stocks were not immune to today's sell-off.
 SRE produced a  big bearish engulfing candlestick
 That looks like a reversal.  We would NOT suggest
 new positions until we see SRE bounce from the $35
 level, which is where we think it is headed.
 -> NO change in stop at $33.99

---

WMB - non-tech long play -
 Like SRE, shares of WMB have been hit by the
 sell-off.  Today's drop is very discouraging because
 WMB closed under the $12.00 mark and its 40-dma.
 At this point we expect to be stopped out tomorrow
 at our stop loss $11.79.


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Comtech Telcom - CMTL - close: 19.20 change: -0.79 stop: 20.51

Company Description:
Comtech Telecommunications Corp. designs, develops, produces and
markets innovative products, systems and services for advanced
communications solutions addressing commercial and government
markets. The Company conducts its business through three
complementary segments: telecommunications transmission, mobile
data communications and RF microwave amplifiers. The Company
offers specialized products, systems and services where it
believes it has technological, engineering, systems design or
other expertise that differentiate its product offerings.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
After more than two weeks of drifting lower shares of CMTL
rallied sharply on Tuesday in an attempt to breakout back above
the psychological $20.00 mark.  It failed closing at $19.99.
CMTL did manage to rally to $20.27 this morning but quickly
turned lower after hitting technical resistance at its simple 40-
dma.  The market-wide sell-off didn't help buyers either.  Now
the stock has produced a failed rally at key resistance on top of
producing a bearish "dark cloud cover" candlestick pattern.

Bulls will suggest that volume was pretty low today, which
doesn't indicate much conviction from the sellers and they're
right.  However, with the general weakness in tech and telecom on
top of CMTL's pattern of lower highs and its failure at
resistance on its P&F chart, we're willing to speculate on a new
leg lower.  We'll suggest new positions at current levels with a
stop loss at $20.51 above today's high.  More conservative
traders may want to wait for a new relative low under $18.75
before initiating new positions.

Annotated chart:



Picked on July 21 at $19.20
Gain since picked:   - 0.00
Earnings Date      06/08/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   400 thousand




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.






DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

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