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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 07/22/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 07-22-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      New Nine Month Low
Market Sentiment: Key Reversal or Speed Bump?
Watch List:       More than slightly bearish


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      07-22-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10050.33 +  4.20 10073.49  9946.88 1.95 bln 1268/1948
NASDAQ   1889.06 + 14.70  1892.98  1853.58 1.96 bln 1348/1795
S&P 100   535.49 +  2.47   536.99   529.43   Totals 2616/3743
S&P 500  1096.84 +  2.96  1099.69  1084.16
W5000   10663.45 + 12.45 10691.29 10541.91
SOX       420.44 + 12.60   422.58   407.81
RUS 2000  546.52 -  2.05   549.60   539.05
DJ TRANS 3051.63 - 35.50  3087.62  3014.21
VIX        15.75 -  0.66    17.10    15.29
VXO (VIX-O)15.82 -  0.32    17.86    15.41
VXN        22.44 +  0.29    23.10    21.96
Total Volume 4,263M
Total UpVol  2,444M
Total DnVol  1,747M
Total Adv  2932
Total Dcl  4309
52wk Highs   45
52wk Lows   357
TRIN       0.77
NAZTRIN    0.59
PUT/CALL   0.89
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

New Nine Month Low
by Jim Brown

The Nasdaq was hit with strong selling this morning and
dropped to a new nine month low of 1853 before bargain
hunters appeared. The Dow broke 9950 briefly and the
Russell fell to strong support at 540. High profile
earnings misses and earnings warnings added to the week's
negativity and pushed the indexes to their limits.

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart


SOX Chart - Daily




The morning started out with a high profile earnings miss
by Dow component CAT and it all went downhill from there.
Ironically Caterpillar's earnings miss was due to too
much business and in the rush to fill all the orders they
let costs get away from them. They raised estimates for
the future and said they expect profits to rise +80-85%
for the full year. They are still experiencing very high
sales and construction bottlenecks from the excess demand.
Must be tough to have the market knock you for a -$5 loss
on so much business you can't produce it all.

Sears added to the negativity with a lowered forecast that
did not come even close to prior estimates. Sears said
weak consumer demand nationwide was the cause for its
-83% drop in earnings. Sears said they experienced very
weak customer demand in June and weak spring sales had
caused inventory levels to rise to unacceptable levels.
Sears lowered estimates for the full year to $2.66-$2.86
and well below analysts estimates of $3.65.

Mixed economics did nothing to overcome the negative
earnings sentiment. The Jobless Claims dropped slightly
to only 339,000 from last weeks 350,000. This was not
enough of a drop to build confidence that the last six
weeks of higher claims were easing again. This report
was neutral but was actually the most positive report
of the day.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index dropped to 0.00
from 0.75 and that May number was revised down from 0.91
and the high for this recovery cycle. The sharp drop in
the national activity index is a wakeup call for analysts.
The production component fell to -0.15 from +0.34 in the
prior month. Industrial production fell 30 basis points
and the ISM composite index fell to 61.1 from 62.8 in
May. This is the first time manufacturing output fell
since May 2003. Employment was negative for the first
time since February. Of the 85 components 58 fell, only
26 improved and one was unchanged. This report is a clear
sign the economy is slowing.

The Conference Board Leading Indicators fell -0.2% and
it was the first drop since March-2003. This was a sharper
drop than was expected with weakness in housing and hourly
work week the main detractors. Half of the components
lost ground for the month and analysts suggest this
projects slowing through the end of the year.

Further weakness came from the Monthly Mass Layoff
report with layoffs jumping +53% in June to 134,588
from only 87,501 in May. Manufacturing layoffs soared
to 27,307 and was the weakest sector by far. This was
still the lowest layoffs for June since 1999 but that
was slim consolation after the jump from last months
low numbers.

Earnings surprises with Dow component CAT knocking -35
points off the Dow at the open and the weak economics
sent the indexes into free fall. The Dow plummeted to
9947 and a level not seen since May 25th. This was a
continuation move to yesterday's reversal drop and
could be seen as a climatic selling event. The Nasdaq
fell to 1853 and a nine month low. This caps a -15%
drop from the 2153 high in January.

After the bell today there was another deluge of
earnings reports headed by Amazon and Microsoft. Both
seemingly on top of the world and doing great. Both also
missed their numbers by a penny. A penny! What happened
to the days of managing your estimates to prevent these
things from happening? (just kidding) Amazon missed
earnings and revenue and but they did post a profit of
+18 cents compared to a loss for the same quarter last
year. This was the fourth consecutive quarterly profit.
Two cents of their income was due to currency translation.
The quarter was weaker than expected for Amazon but we
already know late May and all of June was a challenge
for all retailers. AMZN traded down -2 in after hours.

Microsoft posted profits of 28 cents and a penny under
estimates despite increased revenue. To make matters
worse they guided lower for the current quarter by about
-2 cents. Microsoft dropped sharply in after hours to
$27.34 but recovered to trade just over $28 late in the
session. Microsoft had just wowed investors on Tuesday
with the big $75 billion investor payout and saw its
stock move up to almost $30. If the current trend
continues it could be a long time before we see $30
again. Investors holding on for the $3 payout and
watching the stock drop in after hours are seeing their
dividend slowly slip away. Remember MSFT will open -$3
lower on the day they pay the dividend in November. It
will be interesting to see if the dividend play is enough
to make investors ignore the lowered guidance on Friday.

Tonight's earnings were just about evenly mixed between
beats and misses yet futures saw a serious drop despite
gains by several chip stocks. So far this cycle nearly
50% of the S&P-500 have reported. Before tonight 159
companies have beaten estimates, 45 announced inline
and only 24 missed estimates. This time last year the
numbers were 194, 7, 27. Considering how weak Q2-2003
was relative to the end of 2003 you would expect results
from this Q2 cycle to exceed those comparisons easily.
You can see that although profits are coming in strong
there is a definite case of overly optimistic estimates.

As we move into the summer we are seeing estimates cut
almost daily to match the constant drone of lowered
guidance. Still analysts are stumped as to why stock
prices are dropping. Hello, connect the dots please.
I have mentioned numerous times that falling expectations
coupled with summer event risk does not provide a strong
outlook for stocks.

This does not mean we will not move higher from here
but it does mean there is no overriding reason to rush
into the market. We are at the point where traders
should be positioned to withstand any problems at the
Democratic convention next week. This means we are
ready for a rebound if the convention ends without any
terrorist event. The markets have sold off to major
support levels and pressures appear to have equalized.

The Dow drop to 9946 gave traders looking for an entry
the chance to buy stocks cheap. The bargain hunters
moved in and we saw a rebound on strong volume. Wednesday
was drastically weighted to the sell side and also on
strong volume. Down volume was 5:1 over up volume. Today
that reversed but just barely to 3:2 in favor of up volume.
While we may have had our climatic selling event there
was no V shaped rocket taking off from that bottom.
There is just two much risk in the immediate future
for that pile of cash waiting on the sidelines to jump
back into the fire. However, we are getting close.

The Nasdaq dip to 1853 was the bottom of its downtrend
channel since January. This is the level where it should
rebound OR at least stop dropping. In a nutshell we are
finally positioned for a post convention rebound at
the bottom of our long term ranges.

The wild card tonight is the AMZN/MSFT earnings misses.
The S&P futures fell to 1088.75 but have since rebounded
to 1092.50. The Nasdaq futures fell from their 1405 close
to 1389 but have since rebounded back to 1400. The knee
jerk reaction to the negative news appears to have already
passed and we may not see any adverse reaction when the
markets open tomorrow. Should we see another drop I would
consider it a buying opportunity for those with a strong
appetite for risk.

SPX H&S Chart Daily



There is a train of thought that suggests we are forming
a reverse head and shoulders on the SPX. This faction
believes we will rebound after the convention and return
to the highs around 1160. They are using the great
historical earnings and the growing economy as the
reason for the rebound.

The other viewpoint sees a major breakdown in internals
taking place with the SPX closing under its 200dma at
1105 for the first time since April 16th 2003. The 200
dma is a critical technical level and it has been broken
for several days. The fundamental justification for a
continued decent is the falling guidance and the rapidly
decreasing earnings picture for late 2004 and 2005. The
current earnings estimates for all 2005 are for less than
10% compared with 20+ percent for our last three quarters.
The 200dma is a critical technical indicator for mutual
funds and many will begin scaling back positions if the
index remains under that level.

SPX Chart Daily




So what is a trader to do given the conflicting viewpoints
and the coming event risk? I believe that even if the
bearish viewpoint is the true view we will still see a
post convention bounce. That bounce may only last a short
time but from our very oversold position it is very likely.
The earnings news after the close today could give us one
more entry point on Friday but I would still be cautious
about entering before Monday. Any long positions should
definitely be protected by insurance puts in case of the
worst case coming to pass.

My outlook is going to be completely technically based.
I feel as long as we are under the SPX 200dma we should
be cautiously bearish. Should we move back over that
level I would be cautiously bullish. This is a very risky
environment but at least traders are seeing some nice
volatility return. While traders like volatility I have
seen on the news every day this week that residents in
Boston have been fleeing the city by the tens of thousands
to get away from the potential volatility there. I can
relate to that since we have seen the same thing in the
market all week. Normally these events turn into an
anticlimactic news event and quickly forgotten. A week
from now we will probably be trading several hundred Dow
points away from our close today. The only question is
which direction?

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Key Reversal or Speed Bump?
- J. Brown

Wednesday's market decline was extremely bearish.  Yet the
momentum faded even as the Dow Industrials broke down through the
10,000 mark and the NASDAQ hit new lows not seen since October.
The afternoon rally on Thursday was actually pretty strong.  Some
stocks like EBAY, who gapped down several points actually managed
to close in positive territory.  Is this investors just buying
the dip?  Is it shorts covering for a profit?  Stocks don't look
very healthy here even though hundreds of stocks produced bullish
hammer candlestick patterns, which are typically one-day reversal
patterns. Is there a reason to go long the market ahead of the
Democratic convention next week, which is a huge terrorist
target?

Market internals today were negative despite the afternoon
rebound.  Decliners outpaced advancers 17 to 10 on the NYSE and
17 to 13 on the NASDAQ.  Down volume outweighed up volume by 26%
on the NYSE but up volume was more than double down volume on the
NASDAQ.  Overall volume was pretty heavy.

We can't think of a reason to be bullish.  Investors seem to be
selling stocks on the earnings announcement whether the news is
good or bad.  What's worse is tonight's round of earnings reports
unveiled some high profile misses.  Foundry Networks missed by 3
cents.  Amazon.com missed by a penny and came in under revenue
estimates.  Amgen managed to beat estimates by 2 cents but guided
under analysts' estimates for the rest of the year.  Lo and
behold the might Microsoft actually missed by a penny even though
revenues soared past expectations.

Yes it's true that most of the companies announcing are beating
estimates but the market is suddenly dealing with concerns that
earnings won't grow this fast in the third and fourth quarters.
OptionInvestor has been warning readers about this issue for
weeks if not months.  The high profile misses tonight only make
for a tough opening tomorrow.

Considering how oversold the market is we'd normally say today
was a key reversal and a great spot to watch for new bullish
entries for the oversold bounce.  Yet somehow we just can't work
up enough enthusiasm knowing what's in front of us next week.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8997
Current     : 10050

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10147
 50-dma: 10211
200-dma: 10211


S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  960
Current     : 1096

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1106
 50-dma: 1116
200-dma: 1105


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1204
Current     : 1408

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1413
 50-dma: 1447
200-dma: 1447


-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.75 -0.66
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 15.82 -0.32
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 22.44 +0.29


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.89        828,641       735,463
Equity Only    0.71        639,356       452,128
OEX            1.99         26,031        51,860
QQQ            1.92         23,701        45,530


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          62.6    - 2     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    35.0    - 7     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   60.0    - 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       55.6    - 3     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       58.0    - 3     Bear Confirmed



Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.17
10-dma: 1.22
21-dma: 1.38
55-dma: 1.13


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1058      1305
Decliners    1748      1754

New Highs      22        16
New Lows       39       103

Up Volume    868M     1300M
Down Vol.   1099M      599M

Total Vol.  1980M     1946M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/13/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Not much movement going on in the Commercial traders' positions
for the large S&P futures contracts.  They remain net bearish
but by a small margin.  Small traders remain net bullish but
have upped their shorts a bit.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
06/22/04      407,842   415,462   ( 7,620)   (0.9%)
06/29/04      405,273   413,351   ( 8,078)   (0.9%)
07/06/04      402,952   416,526   (13,574)   (1.7%)
07/13/04      407,166   416,869   ( 9,703)   (1.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/22/04      124,985    89,934    35,051    16.3%
06/29/04      129,978    94,535    35,443    15.7%
07/06/04      132,423    90,748    41,675    18.7%
07/13/04      133,935    95,787    38,148    16.6%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders have reduced their long positions in the
e-minis raising their net bearish positions several percentage
points.  Small traders are still very bullish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
06/22/04      229,290   446,974   (217,684)  (32.2%)
06/29/04      258,443   447,505   (189,062)  (26.7%)
07/06/04      287,442   423,583   (136,141)  (19.1%)
07/13/04      265,142   427,017   (161,875)  (23.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/22/04      243,444     58,389   185,055    61.3%
06/29/04      236,492     47,780   188,712    66.3%
07/06/04      219,321     58,567   160,754    57.8%
07/13/04      225,410     57,699   167,711    59.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders upped their long positions a bit boosting
their bullish stature on the NDX.  Small traders reduced both
their longs and shorts but the drop in long positions actually
left them move bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/22/04       40,397     37,413     2,984    3.8%
06/29/04       41,078     37,194     3,884    4.9%
07/06/04       42,245     37,343     4,902    6.2%
07/13/04       44,211     37,007     7,204    8.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
06/22/04        9,311     9,950      (639)  ( 3.3%)
06/29/04        7,437    11,904    (4,467)  (23.1%)
07/06/04        9,345    16,527    (7,182)  (27.8%)
07/13/04        7,847    15,243    (7,396)  (32.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders are not making any big moves with their
INDU futures positions and they remain net bullish.  Meanwhile
small traders have turned a bit more bearish, the most we've
seen in weeks.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
06/22/04       26,808    19,752    7,056      15.2%
06/29/04       27,278    20,512    6,766      14.1%
07/06/04       27,214    20,775    6,439      13.4%
07/13/04       27,773    20,573    7,200      14.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
06/22/04        5,626     7,798   (2,172)   (16.2%)
06/29/04        4,930     7,682   (2,752)   (21.8%)
07/06/04        5,969     8,227   (2,258)   (15.9%)
07/13/04        5,292     9,068   (3,776)   (26.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

More than slightly bearish

Syntel Inc - SYNT - close: 15.26 change: -1.05

WHAT TO WATCH: SYNT has traded sideways in a very narrow range
for four and a half weeks.  Now the stock has broken lower on
volume 2 1/2 times the average.  The catalyst was the company's
earnings report.  SYNT reported inline with estimates but guided
lower for the next quarter.  This looks like a bearish entry
point to us.  Look for a bounce back to new resistance at $16.00
and short a failed rally or look for a new low under $14.50.
We'd target $11.00 - $10.00.




---

Orbotech - ORBK - close: 17.57 change: -0.18

WHAT TO WATCH: ORBK has dropped to levels not seen since
September 2003.  The Tuesday rally and Wednesday reversal has
painted a "tweezer top" if you're a candlestick trader.  Today's
drop to a new low confirms the move.  We would consider bearish
positions with a target of $15-14.  Its P&F chart is bearish and
points to a $7.00 target but does show support near $14.  Watch
out for earnings expected on August 2nd.




---

Transaction Sys. Architects - TSAI - close: 18.28 change: -0.63

WHAT TO WATCH: Software stocks may not do so well tomorrow after
MSFT's earnings miss tonight.  We'd watch TSAI for a breakdown
under long-term support in the $17.50-18.00 range.  Should the
breakdown occur we can probably target a drop to $15.00.  Its P&F
chart is more bearish and points to a $12.00 target.  Watch out
for earnings on July 27th.  We would not hold over the event.




---

Nordstrom - JWN - close: 43.23 change: +1.01

WHAT TO WATCH: This high-end retailer's stock is bouncing from
support at the $40.00 level.  Today's 2.39% gain broke through
minor resistance at $43.  JWN's short-term technicals are already
bullish and its MACD is very close to producing a new buy signal.
We do like how JWN has broken its four-week trend of lower highs.
More aggressive traders can consider bullish positions here but
watch out for resistance at the $45 level.  Momentum traders may
want to look for the breakout above $45.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

ROG $47.14 -11.99 - If you've been watching this column then you
know ROG has been on the watch list as a potential short.  If you
took it we'd suggest closing the play for a profit.


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DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.


PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 07-22-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments:  CCBL
Closed Plays:      BORL, SINA


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

CCBL - tech stock short -
 Believe it or not we are still NOT TRIGGERED.
 CCBL traded to $7.96 while our trigger is 7.95.
 We will continue to sit on the sidelines.


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

Borland Software - BORL - close: 7.12 change: +0.02 stop: 7.36

This is a late update on BORL.  Per our instructions on Sunday we
were to close the play on Wednesday afternoon to avoid any
surprises with BORL's earnings report after the bell Thursday
night.  Exiting on Wednesday would have closed BORL at $7.10.  If
you didn't exit on Wednesday and kept the play open then odds are
you were stopped out early this morning at $7.36 (our stop).
BORL did report earnings this evening and beat estimates by 2
cents.  The company guided inline for the next quarter. After
nearly two weeks of consolidating sideways between $7.00 and
$7.35 it's anyone's guess which direction BORL will breakout but
we do expect some sort of reaction tomorrow to the earnings news.

Picked on July 04 at $ 7.91
Gain since picked:   - 0.79
Earnings Date      07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   672 thousand



---

Sina Corp - SINA - close: 26.30 change: +2.74 stop: 26.20

When we initially added SINA to the short list we outlined rumors
that YHOO might be considering SINA a takeover target as one of
the risks.  Now we have to contend with new rumors that Microsoft
might be considering SINA an acquisition target.  At least that's
what some are attributing to SINA's 11.6% rally today.  It's days
like these that one can be both glad and grumpy that we use stop
losses.  We've been taken out with a loss but the losses could
have been bigger and there was no way to know ahead of time when
it comes to rumors.

Picked on July 16 at $24.95
Gain since picked:   + 1.35
Earnings Date      07/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    5.2 million




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

BAC     Bank of America            84.87     +0.96
CCU     Clear Channel Comm.        35.73     +1.50
DVN     Devon Energy               68.64     +0.54
AT      Alltel                     50.78     +1.55
COF     Capital One Financial      69.30     +3.30
FD      Federated Dept Stores      47.17     +1.08

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

SWKS    Skyworks Solutions          8.15     +1.17
MCRL    Micrel Inc                 10.21     +1.22
ISSX    Internet Security Sys      15.10     +2.05
AEN     AMC Entertainment          19.10     +1.94
BEAV    BE Aerospace                7.89     +1.43
IMM     Immtech Intl               11.76     +1.98

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

QCOM    Qualcomm Inc               72.50     +4.82
SBUX    Starbucks                  47.76     +2.12
LH      Laboratory Corp            39.94     +3.14
CVD     Covance Inc                39.07     +2.25
FLIR    FLIR Systems               61.27     +5.93
TEX     Terex  Corp                36.75     +4.79

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

CL      Colgate-Palmolive          53.85     -1.15
CAT     Caterpillar                73.53     -3.42
BSX     Boston Scientific          33.27     -2.08
DE      Deere Co                   62.20     -1.37
IGT     Intl Game Technology       30.73     -3.18
CIT     CIT Group                  35.75     -1.85
FISV    Fiserv Inc                 34.50     -1.29
DOX     Amdocs                     20.21     -2.37

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

HOT     Starwood Hotels            43.22     -1.28
KMRT    Kmart Holdings             69.42     -4.84
TK      Teekay Shipping            37.70     -1.66
ARLP    Alliance Resource          45.66     -2.23
LMT     Lockheed Martin            53.32     -0.98
TLM     Talisman Energy            23.37     -0.22


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