PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 07-29-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Escaping July Market Sentiment: A Buyable Bounce? Watch List: Railroads, Steelmakers and more! ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 07-29-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10129.24 + 12.20 10163.01 10084.84 1.84 bln 2258/ 963 NASDAQ 1881.06 + 22.80 1885.01 1867.62 1.70 bln 2043/ 992 S&P 100 537.28 + 0.82 539.64 535.28 Totals 4301/1955 S&P 500 1100.43 + 5.01 1103.71 1095.42 W5000 10663.45 + 12.45 10691.29 10541.91 SOX 411.19 + 11.70 414.04 399.49 RUS 2000 549.83 + 8.63 549.90 541.20 DJ TRANS 3129.42 + 43.10 3135.05 3086.33 VIX 15.68 - 0.47 16.12 15.42 VXO (VIX-O)15.46 - 0.42 16.24 15.22 VXN 23.99 - 0.88 24.79 23.82 Total Volume 3,838M Total UpVol 2,865M Total DnVol 888M Total Adv 4879 Total Dcl 2222 52wk Highs 104 52wk Lows 151 TRIN 0.94 NAZTRIN 0.61 PUT/CALL 0.65 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Escaping July by Jim Brown It is almost over, July that is. So far it has run true to its historical election year norm with weakness leading up to the convention and disappointment over summer guidance. The good news is our sentence to this purgatory of a market correction may be about over as the July calendar expires. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart SPX Chart The economics this morning were unimpressive and the market lost its overnight excitement early as oil began to rebound from its dip. The Jobless Claims rose to 345,000 and +5K over estimates and very close to the 350K inflection point. Continuing claims rose again and at 2.96M are very close to breaking back over the three million mark. Investors were not impressed. The Help Wanted Index dropped to 38 and only +2 points off its historical low of 36 reached last year. The recent high was 40 in February and it has been trending slightly lower ever since. Prior to the recession the index peaked at 92. Only 31% of newspapers surveyed indicated help wanted ads were increasing. While the headline numbers are not likely to increase to numbers of yesteryear with the advent of online search firms the actual movement of the index remains important. The movement has not showed any gains since February and that is a strong negative for current job growth. The Employment Cost Index rose +0.9% for Q2 and only slightly less than the +1.1% jump in Q1. The majority of the increase was related to benefit cost increases and only a minor amount was due to wage increases. This still suggests the labor market is soft and there is strong competition for available jobs. Since benefits increase regardless of wages, employers continue to be faced with job cuts as way to reduce expenses. The Jobs picture will come to a head next week when we get the Nonfarm Payrolls once again. The current consensus is for an addition of +215,000 compared with only +112,000 jobs added in June. That is a very strong number for a summer month. We are also nearing that time of the month again where the major economic reports seem to converge. Friday begins with the Q2 GDP, NAPM and PMI and Monday has the ISM for June. These reports lead off the August schedule and will serve to set the tone for the next couple weeks. As we move out of July traders will breathe a sigh of relief. According to ISI the markets lost -$900 billion in market cap since July 1st. The Dow gave up -5% since June 30th to the July 26th lows. The Nasdaq lost -11%, SPX -5.7%, Russell -6.8% and a whopping -20% on the SOX. Using the Nasdaq and SOX numbers we have seen a real correction in the markets and it is time for more than just a relief rally. Coincidentally the convention is over tonight. Nice how that worked out. Seriously, we are due for a real rebound next week and it could begin as early as tomorrow. For the last three days we have seen attempts to rebound in the afternoon but fear of convention darkness always held us back from a real rally. The volatility has been very strong, relative to the last three months and volume has picked up significantly. Tuesday and Wednesday we had over four billion shares traded and today came very close at 3.85M. Up volume has increased strongly and most of the indexes have seen a double bottom retest of support over the last four days. The Dow tried for three days to break and hold 9950 and the bears could not manage it. We have now seen two higher lows since Monday and we went out near the highs of the day in anticipation of the convention closing successfully. The Nasdaq pushed down to 1830 on Monday and Wednesday and barely dipped below 1870 today. It held its gains and went out near the highs of the day. Obviously these factors do not guarantee a positive market ahead but they are bullish signals. Earnings are literally exploding and may even beat Q2 when the smoke clears. This is very contrary to the prior estimates of mid to high teens for overall earnings. Current estimates are for +25% to +27% based on the strong performance by S&P companies. Granted Intel, MSFT, IBM and some others were not glowing about their future prospects but they still posted decent results. We are actually seeing estimates for Q3/Q4 rise slightly and this has surprised most analysts. We also have the rising price of oil impacting our markets. After opening down today it did rise to touch $43 once again. Boone Pickens was on the radio today saying oil was headed for $50. This kind of talk had the markets running scared as well as the talk about shutting down Yukos. Guess what? Yukos was a power play as the game of brinkmanship continues and the Russian courts said today they never expected Yukos to stop selling oil. Also, oil supplies are rising according to a report today. The extra oil OPEC said they would begin pumping a month ago is starting to hit stockpiles and I believe the market price will reflect that soon. If oil prices begin to moderate then stock prices, down on the threat of oil, are free to rebound. We also have the elimination of the convention risk. Tonight is the last night and is probably the most risky as it is the highest profile event. If the Kerry speech goes off without an incident and the attendees file out of the auditorium safely the city of Boston and the country in general will breathe a strong sigh of relief. To make a long story short we have seen a sharp correction and we are due for a sharp rebound. The timing is right with a week devoid of events and only a few high profile economic reports to stimulate the conversation. This is a free week for traders to romp if they so desire. The following week we have another Fed meeting and possible rate hike and the news will begin to focus on the Olympics and associated terror risk in Greece. Still, as bad as it can be it is still Greece and not on U.S. soil and investors may feel a little better about being in the market. Obviously nothing guarantees a rebound or the duration should a rebound occur. What we have is the perfect setup in an imperfect market. Money is still flowing into funds but that money has not made it into the market. As I related last week many funds are sitting on as much as 25% of their portfolio in cash. Should the market begin to rise those funds will begin to worry about missing a move and could put some of that cash back to work. Historically the calendar is with the bulls. In election years the markets tend to rise in August as expectations about the winner begin to firm. Part of the recent sell off could have been an election slump as Kerry went into the convention ahead of Bush in the polls. Since the convention has been in progress Bush has pulled ahead again and the markets have begun to rise. It could be just a coincidence of timing but don't discount the polls completely. Technically the Dow has rebounded from its 9914 low to the top of its down trend channel at 10150 and this is very strong resistance. It is also exactly where a breakout could produce a strong reaction. A breakout here would quickly run into resistance at 10200-10250 but without any immediate clouds on the horizon we could see 10400 again. I know, it sounds like I have been hitting the bottle and got a little tipsy but I am just telling you what could happen. The 200dma is 10225. The Nasdaq is so far from real resistance that it could easily run for quite a few points. With the 1881 close today the 1900 level is the next key but a break there could see a quick bounce to 1950. I am not suggesting that will happen but just stating potential. The SPX is still the key as I have been telling you for the last two weeks. It closed today exactly on the key 1100 level and ready to race off in either direction. The 200dma is near 1107 and a strong bounce could easily push the index back over that key level and remove some of the sell triggers from the reach of fund managers. The bearish side of this analysis is the dead stop at key levels of Dow 10150 and SPX 1100. These are strong resistance levels and levels that could hold if even the slightest negative news appears. We can be watching for a rebound to appear but we need to be careful to also watch for the bears sneaking up behind us. We had several positive earnings reports after the close with IM, ACS, ADPT, CYTC, GILD, KLAC and VSEA beating estimates. KLAC was somewhat bullish on the conference call and futures are up in the overnight session. The earnings calendar for Friday morning is very light but we have four economic reports that could spark the market. GDP, NAPM-NY, PMI and Consumer Sentiment will be released. One negative event was announced today and that was a $5 billion withdrawal from Janus Funds. Janus announced that an unnamed investor was withdrawing $5 billion by year-end from Janus Funds. This amounts to nearly 4% of assets under management for Janus. This money will likely be reinvested in the market by a new fund of choice but we could see a negative bias at Janus as other investors hearing the news decide to liquidate as well. This could be a drag on the market over the next five months BUT remember we lost $900 billion in market cap over the last 21 days in July according to ISI. $5 billion may be a significant amount of money but over five months the withdrawal should be nearly invisible. For Friday the instructions are the same. Remain long over SPX 1100 and short/flat below that level. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== A Buyable Bounce? - J. Brown It would seem that the current oversold bounce may indeed be buyable. At least that appears to be the sentiment among the more optimistic traders. Stocks have suffered a very painful July and after three weeks of losses we were due for an upside correction. The market internals today were pretty bullish and paint a much better picture than the 12-point gain on the Dow Jones or the 5-point gain on the S&P 500. Advancing stocks outnumbered decliners 19 to 8.5 on the NYSE and 20 to 9.5 on the NASDAQ. Up volume was more than double down volume on the NYSE and almost four times the down volume on the NASDAQ. Looking at the sector indices we can see just how wide the rally was today. Not one major sector index closed lower. The rebound was lead by a 4% gain in the HMO healthcare sector, which was bouncing from its simple 200-dma. The INX Internet index followed with a 3.5% gain and a breakout over its simple 10-dma. The XAL airlines index turned in a 2.9% gain after rebounding from new one-year lows. The airlines were boosted by news that Russia's Justice Ministry would not force oil giant Yukos to halt oil sales. This tugged on crude prices but they remain near their highs. With so many stocks bouncing from oversold levels we could see shorts begin to cover in earnest and bulls being tempted to step back into the market. Keep in mind that we have one more night of the Democratic convention and if all goes well (i.e. no terrorist attacks) then stocks could melt higher in a big sigh of relief. Tomorrow also brings several economic reports. Before the bell is the advanced GDP readings, which are expected to come in around 3.7%. After the open will be the July University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the Chicago PMI report. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 8997 Current : 10129 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10073 50-dma: 10212 200-dma: 10225 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 960 Current : 1100 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1096 50-dma: 1113 200-dma: 1106 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1204 Current : 1398 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1392 50-dma: 1434 200-dma: 1447 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.68 –0.47 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 15.46 –0.42 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 23.99 –0.88 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.65 671,863 435,720 Equity Only 0.56 547,501 306,108 OEX 0.95 19,785 18,836 QQQ 1.57 23,682 37,248 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 59.8 - 1 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 33.0 - 3 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 53.3 - 3 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 53.6 - 1 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 55.0 - 1 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.21 10-dma: 1.19 21-dma: 1.44 55-dma: 1.16 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1933 2039 Decliners 859 953 New Highs 41 39 New Lows 35 46 Up Volume 1280M 1312M Down Vol. 494M 341M Total Vol. 1834M 1671M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/20/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercial traders have upped their short positions a tad while reducing their longs by nearly the same amount. Yet the change is rather insignificant. Small traders pared back their shorts by a very small amount and remain net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 06/29/04 405,273 413,351 ( 8,078) (0.9%) 07/06/04 402,952 416,526 (13,574) (1.7%) 07/13/04 407,166 416,869 ( 9,703) (1.2%) 07/22/04 404,828 419,017 (14,189) (1.7%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/29/04 129,978 94,535 35,443 15.7% 07/06/04 132,423 90,748 41,675 18.7% 07/13/04 133,935 95,787 38,148 16.6% 07/22/04 138,123 94,990 43,133 15.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 There is some interesting action in the e-minis. Commercial traders significantly added to their long positions, which reduced their overall net bearish stance to the lowest level in weeks. Small traders, in contrast, reduced their longs and added to their shorts. This could be viewed as a bullish move in sentiment except institutional traders remain net bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 06/29/04 258,443 447,505 (189,062) (26.7%) 07/06/04 287,442 423,583 (136,141) (19.1%) 07/13/04 265,142 427,017 (161,875) (23.4%) 07/22/04 309,972 428,240 (118,268) (16.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/29/04 236,492 47,780 188,712 66.3% 07/06/04 219,321 58,567 160,754 57.8% 07/13/04 225,410 57,699 167,711 59.2% 07/22/04 212,078 62,416 149,662 54.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Very little action in the commercial traders with similar additions to both longs and shorts. Meanwhile small traders upped their longs and reduced their shorts and that significantly reduced their overall bearish posture. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 06/29/04 41,078 37,194 3,884 4.9% 07/06/04 42,245 37,343 4,902 6.2% 07/13/04 44,211 37,007 7,204 8.9% 07/22/04 45,069 37,975 7,094 8.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/29/04 7,437 11,904 (4,467) (23.1%) 07/06/04 9,345 16,527 (7,182) (27.8%) 07/13/04 7,847 15,243 (7,396) (32.0%) 07/22/04 9,398 11,776 (2,378) (11.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Almost no change in positions for commercial traders but small traders have pared back their bearish positions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 06/29/04 27,278 20,512 6,766 14.1% 07/06/04 27,214 20,775 6,439 13.4% 07/13/04 27,773 20,573 7,200 14.9% 07/22/04 27,957 20,389 7,568 15.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 06/29/04 4,930 7,682 (2,752) (21.8%) 07/06/04 5,969 8,227 (2,258) (15.9%) 07/13/04 5,292 9,068 (3,776) (26.3%) 07/22/04 4,857 7,297 (2,440) (20.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Railroads, Steelmakers and more! Canadian Pacific Railway - CP - close: 25.81 change: +0.51 WHAT TO WATCH: CP reported earnings today and investors responded by confirming yesterday's breakout over the $25.25 level and its simple 200-dma. The stock has also managed to breakout over its 50 and 200-week moving averages. Readers might want to consider momentum plays here or a bounce from $25.25. Use a tight stop. --- Olympic Steel - ZEUS - close: 22.33 change: +2.96 WHAT TO WATCH: ZEUS reported record sales and earnings for the second quarter today. Management was pretty optimistic about the second half of 2004. Investors responded with a 15% rally to new multi-year highs and a breakout over resistance at the $20.50- 21.00 region. Volume was huge and its MACD is on the verge of a new buy signal. We would watch ZEUS for a dip back to $21 and consider buying the bounce. --- Ethan Allen Interior - ETH - close: 36.80 change: +3.11 WHAT TO WATCH: ETH turned in a strong session with a 9% rally on big volume. The move was fueled by earnings that beat estimates by a penny. It might not be a coincidence that ETH was trading near P&F support. The move could also be a short-squeeze. Whatever the case ETH has broken technical resistance at its 10, 21, 40 and 50-dma's. Aggressive bulls might want to consider buying a bounce from the $35.50-36.00 region and target the 200- dma near $40. --- Par Pharmaceutical - PRX - close: 38.60 change: +6.38 WHAT TO WATCH: PRX is another post-earnings winner. Shares climbed almost 20% on huge volume after the company beat estimates by 19 cents and came in above expectations on the revenue number. The rally broke resistance at the $35 level and its simple 10, 21, 40 and 50-dma's. We would watch for a dip and consider buying the next bounce. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- LF $19.98 +0.93 - Leapfrog jumped 4.88% to breakout over its 40 and 50-dma's. Readers might want to consider aggressive bullish plays on a breakout above its 100-dma near 20.50. SWN $32.12 +1.00 - After three weeks of sideways consolidation shares of SWN are breaking out to new highs. This looks like a bullish entry point. GTI $10.53 +1.18 - GTI rose more than 12% on an earnings inspire rebound that broke multiple levels of resistance. Look for some confirmation back above $10.80 and consider targeting the 200- dma. JLL $28.90 +1.36 - JLL is breaking out to new highs not seen since 1999. The recent rally has been fueled by strong volume and its MACD has produced a new buy signal. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 07-29-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: CCBL, CMTL, WWW Closed Plays: FRED Stock Splits: TOX, SSP Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= CCBL - tech stock short - Be careful here. The rebound in the markets has made it dangerous to play shorts. We don't like seeing CCBL back above the $8.00 mark and its MACD is curling towards a new "buy" signal. --- CMTL - tech stock short - Danger! Danger! The rebound in tech stocks has CMTL bouncing back toward resistance at $20.00. Its MACD is about to produce a new "buy" signal. More conservative investors may want to exit now. --- WWW - non-tech short play - Remember, we are UN-TRIGGERED until WWW trades under the $22.00 level. Today's move doens't bode well for the stock. ================================================================= Closed Plays ================================================================= Fred's Inc - FRED - close: 18.32 change: +0.29 stop: 18.51 We've been suggesting readers prepare to exit and/or take some money off the table as FRED traded toward our initial target at $17.50. The stock hit our target on Monday and has managed to bounce (as expected) since shares are so oversold. Unfortunately, the bounce has been stronger than we thought with FRED closing above its simple 10-dma, which has been technical resistance for the last three weeks. Bears should be careful here. FRED's short-term technicals are bullish and its MACD is close to producing a new "buy" signal. We suggest exiting now for a small profit if you've not done so already. Picked on July 12 at $19.66 Gain since picked: - 1.34 Earnings Date 08/19/04 (unconfirmed) Average Daily Volume: 924 thousand ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- SSP announces a 2-for-1 stock split. About 30 minutes after the closing bell on Thursday E.W. Scripps Company (NYSE:SSP) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split and a quarterly cash dividend of 20 cents per share. The split will be paid as a 100% stock dividend payable on September 10th to shareholders on record as of August 31st, 2004. The cash dividend of 20 cents per share is payable on September 10th to shareholders of record on August 31st and payable on a pre-split basis. About the company: The E.W. Scripps Company is a diverse media concern with interests in newspaper publishing, broadcast television, national television networks, interactive media and television retailing. Scripps operates 21 daily newspapers, 15 broadcast TV stations, four cable and satellite television programming networks and a television retailing network. All of the company's media businesses provide content and advertising services via the Internet. Scripps Networks brands include Home & Garden Television, Food Network, DIY -- Do It Yourself Network and Fine Living. HGTV reaches about 86 million U.S. television households and Food Network can be seen in about 84 million households. Scripps Networks Web sites include FoodNetwork.com, HGTV.com, DIYnetwork.com and fineliving.com. Scripps Networks programming can be seen in 86 countries. The company's television retailing subsidiary, Shop At Home Network, markets a growing range of consumer goods directly to television viewers and visitors to the Shop At Home Web site, shopathometv.com. Shop At Home reaches about 49 million full-time equivalent U.S. households, including 5 million households via five Scripps owned, Shop At Home affiliated broadcast television stations. Scripps also operates Scripps Howard News Service and United Media, which is the worldwide licensing and syndication home of PEANUTS and DILBERT. (Source: Company Press Release) --- TOX tests a 3-for-2 stock split. Not long after this morning's opening bell MEDTOX Scientific, Inc. (AMEX:TOX) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 3- for-2 stock split. The stock split will be paid in the form of a stock dividend, which will be distributed on August 20th, 2004. The record date for the split is August 10th. Post-split TOX will have approximately 7.5 million shares outstanding. About the company: MEDTOX Scientific, Inc., headquartered in St. Paul, Minn., is a provider of high quality specialized laboratory and on-site/point- of-collection (POC) devices. The Company also supports customers with complete logistics, data and program management services. MEDTOX develops and manufactures diagnostic devices for quick and economical on-site/point-of-collection analysis for drugs of abuse, therapeutic drugs and biological and agricultural toxins and provides employment drug screening and occupational health testing. MEDTOX is a leader in providing esoteric laboratory testing services to hospitals and laboratories nationwide. This includes both central laboratory and bio-analytical testing for pharmaceutical clinical trials. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BP BP Plc 55.99 +1.07 CVX ChevronTexaco 95.48 +1.17 IBM Intl Business Machines 86.77 +0.92 COP ConocoPhillips 78.10 +1.44 DOW Dow Chemical Co 40.50 +1.10 MER Merrill Lynch 50.36 +0.53 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- EDS Electronic Data Systems 18.44 +1.17 GTI Graftech Intl Ltd 10.53 +1.18 RRC Range Resources 16.86 +1.23 LAVA Magma Design 18.05 +3.20 HVT Haverty Furniture 18.40 +1.63 BMHC Building Materials 20.00 +1.12 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- PCAR Paccar Inc 60.08 +1.34 ETN Eaton Corp 64.98 +1.03 RJR RJ Reynolds Tobacco 70.25 +2.05 FAST Fastenal Co 63.30 +1.69 DRL Doral Financial 38.75 +1.61 BG Bunge Ltd 40.39 +2.90 BC Brunswick 38.68 +3.74 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- G Gillette Co 38.16 -2.42 ACL Alcon Inc 76.41 -7.00 CCE Coca-Cola Enterprises 20.63 -4.40 PBG Pepsi Bottling Group 27.56 -2.03 ESRX Express Scripts 65.36 -6.49 COT Cott Corp 28.15 -1.40 AGY Argosy Gaming Co 31.80 -1.22 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- JHI John Hancock 20.55 -0.13 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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