PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 08-04-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: How Crude! Watch List: Doughnuts to Movies and more! Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) =============================================================== MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) =============================================================== 08-04-2004 High Low Volume Advance/Decline DJIA 10126.51 + 6.27 10162.42 10068.11 1.64 bln 1334/1464 NASDAQ 1855.06 - 4.36 1864.80 1842.20 1.64 bln 1350/1665 S&P 100 538.49 + 0.57 540.29 535.31 Totals 2684/3129 S&P 500 1098.63 - 1.06 1102.45 1092.44 RUS 2000 546.07 - 0.96 546.07 536.52 DJ TRANS 3119.47 - 1.07 3134.20 3083.84 VIX 16.21 + 0.18 16.65 15.82 VXO 15.55 + 0.34 16.41 15.17 VXN 25.05 - 0.03 25.65 24.63 Total Volume 3,594M Total UpVol 1,534M Total DnVol 2,020M 52wk Highs 89 52wk Lows 249 TRIN 1.31 PUT/CALL 0.92 =============================================================== =========== Market Wrap =========== How Crude! Linda Piazza Markets again waffled around near support Wednesday, refusing to break out in either direction. Daily candlestick charts show many indices producing high-wave candles, candles with small bodies but long upper and lower shadows. They're indicative of indecision. Volume patterns echoed that indecision, at least on the NYSE, with advancing and declining issues closely matched. The Nasdaq saw more decliners than advancers by a 14:17 adv:dec ratio. An intraday chart of the OEX depicts the indecision. Annotated 60-Minute Chart of the OEX: Other indications of indecision appeared. The SPX and Dow pierced their 200-ema's and then bounced, ending the day between their 200-ema's and 200-sma's. The SOX pierced 400 and then bounced, but ended the day between 400 support and 420 resistance. The Nasdaq pierced 1850 and then bounced. The BIX approached its 72-ema, an average from which it's bounced seven days out of the last 24 trading days, and bounced once again, but couldn't close over 350, producing a high-wave doji for its day's efforts. The TRAN pierced its 30-dma and 3100 and bounced, but couldn't drive over the descending trendline off the 7/01 high, with the TRAN also producing a high-wave doji. That indecision was all crude's fault. Perhaps other factors played a part. Futures succumbed to downward pressure pre-market, and the cash markets followed through on the opening. Those pressures included the Nikkei closing at a 10-week low, UBS lowering the rating of some European chip stocks to a reduce rating, European banks reporting lower trading revenue and warning of a difficult environment for global financial markets, as well as September crude futures spiking to a record $44.34 a barrel in after-hours trading Tuesday night. In addition, although earnings season has begun to wind down, earnings reports or warnings still impacted markets. Late Tuesday, fiber-optic networking equipment manufacturer Ciena (CIEN) warned that it would not meet revenue expectations. The company cited cautious spending habits by its largest customers as one reason behind the warning. JP Morgan downgraded the stock to an underweight rating from its previous neutral rating. The stock plummeted in pre-market trading and opened $0.50 below Tuesday's $2.76 close. It closed down 24.64 percent, at $2.08. The news hit Cisco (CSCO), Lucent (LU) and Nortel (NT), all also opening lower, although only NT closed lower out of those three. The XTC, the North American Telecoms Index, opened lower and dropped toward its 200-sma as market watchers worried about those cautious spending habits by CIEN's largest customers. The XTC closed lower by 0.57 percent. In addition, Internet commerce and TV-shopping company InterActiveCorp (IACI) guided analysts to expect 2004 operating income at the low end of its former forecast. Although earnings beat expectations, the company faces increased competition from hotel and airline web sites. Travel revenue dropped quarter- over-quarter for the first time. IACI opened at $22.30, $4.73 below Tuesday's close, and closed at $22.80, down 15.65 percent. IACI is a component stock of the Philadelphia Internet Index, $DOT. That index closed lower by 1.11 percent. Shortly after the open, attention turned to July's non- manufacturing ISM and June's factory orders numbers, both released at 10:00, with markets coming off their lows just ahead of the release. June's non-manufacturing ISM had been 59.9 and expectations for July's number had ranged from 61.5-63.00, depending on the source. The Institute for Supply Management said that July's services index rose to 64.8, a higher-than- expected result, but the employment component fell to 50 percent from the previous 57.4 percent. The ISM reported that transportation, communication, wholesale trade, utilities and business services saw the biggest gains. With global attention already focused on Friday's non-farm payroll report, the loss in the employment component now has market watchers speculating that Friday's much-awaited number won't meet the expectation for payrolls to rise by 235,000. May's factory orders had declined 0.3 percent, but June's were expected to rise from 0.55-0.9 percent, also depending on the source. Factory orders increased 0.7 percent, a strong result given that was in comparison to May's unexpected revision to a 0.4 percent climb rather than the previously reported loss. However, economists greeted the number with some disappointment since much of the gain was due to increased orders for defense aircraft. Markets dropped back to retest their lows. The release of the crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories shortly after 10:00 and shortly before 11:00 may have produced the first real bounce of the day. As is usual, the Department of Energy and API industry group announced disparate figures, with the Department of Energy showing crude stocks down 1.9 million barrels, distillates up 2.1 million barrels and gas stocks up 2.4 million barrels; and the API showing crude inventories up 800,000 barrels, distillate stocks down 60,000 barrels, and gas stocks rising by 3.5 million barrels. While it's difficult for an industry outsider to reconcile the figures, both showed rising gasoline stocks in a seasonal pattern that shifts inventories toward gasoline production as refineries ramp up to meet increased demand in the summer. The API announced that September unleaded gas had dropped 3.2 percent. Shortly after the API released its results, crude futures for September delivery eased off their high. That first easing was to precede the completion of a H&S and a plummet through the neckline, almost all the way to the downside target. Annotated Ten-Minute Chart of Crude Futures: Markets needed some hope that crude futures would ease. Tuesday, OPEC admitted that over the short-term period, it did not have the capacity to further increase production. To try to stem the ramping up of crude prices, Saudi Arabia's Saudi Aramco announced early Wednesday that it was starting production ahead of schedule on the offshore Abu Safah and predominantly onshore Qatif oil fields. The company also announced that it would consider delaying the shutdown of older wells. Before this morning's developments, crude futures looked as if they would soon reach the fabled $50.00 level. Many suggest, however, that markets will remain pressured until crude prices pull back significantly. Annotated Daily Chart of Crude Futures: With markets trading in opposition to the cost of crude, indecision as to market direction rules here, too. Crude futures spent about six weeks trying to break through resistance at $42.00, so presumably that level or some of the other levels marked on the daily chart might now provide support. Yet in the past, prices tended to retreat to the 50-dma, currently at $39.78, to regroup before rising again, so there is perhaps vulnerability down to at least that level. A drop that deep would allow indices time to rise or consolidate for several days. A bounce at $42.00 or above would ratchet up the pressure again. Whatever caused that 10:30 bounce, rumors of a bomb explosion in Athens may have been a precipitating cause for a stumble in the markets. The bomb was a homemade one targeting an electrical substation and caused no injuries, with the information soon forgotten despite the approaching opening of Olympic games in Greece. Markets moved to their highs of the day and then retreated again into the close, producing those high-wave candles. Let's take a look at some of the charts. Inconclusive oscillator action revealed indecision on the SOX's daily chart. Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX: A study of intraday charts (not shown) reveal bullish divergence as Wednesday's higher low was hit, with oscillators hitting equal lows while price hit that higher low. It's possible that the divergence predicted only the bounce that has occurred. However, I advise watching the potential inverse H&S. The neckline of that formation is difficult to determine, but may currently be at about 417. Cautious traders should wait for a move above 420 as confirmation of that formation, and should be aware of the OEX's inability so far to meet the upside target after confirming its recent inverse H&S, as depicted in the first chart in this article. For now, the daily SOX chart does not give us much information about likely direction, but instead indicates that bulls began buying the SOX stocks as the SOX hit the bottom of that channel and its P&F downside target. Whether the dip-buyers will be joined by others remains to be seen. This was a technical level at which to buy the SOX, and some did. That's about the only conclusion we can reach. Oscillator evidence remains ambiguous on the Nasdaq, too. Dip- buyers also stepped in at the bottom of the descending regression channel, but the climb couldn't be called precipitous. Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq: The Russell 2000 also bounced from a higher low today, but also couldn't manage to turn oscillators into a more bullish mode. Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000: Although the 200-ema is not as closely watched as the 200-sma, it may be playing a minor part in support/resistance on the Dow, too. That average helped keep the Dow hovering on the midline of the descending regression channel on the daily chart. Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow: The Dow's oscillators look more bullish than those on other indices. At the day's low, the index was moving into the top of May's congestion zone. Declines might slow or find support somewhere within that zone, so that it's possible that the Dow might try to bounce from the midline of its regression channel. If it does, it faces a river of moving averages at historical resistance near 10,200-10,240. The 200-ema may also have played a part in the SPX's trading behavior Wednesday, with the SPX ending the day between the 200- sma and -ema. The SPX appears to be rounding over beneath the 200-sma, but may actually be moving up in a tight ascending regression channel. Until proven otherwise, however, such a tight pattern of higher highs and higher lows should be viewed as a possible bear flag when it forms after a steep decline. Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX: Not only do charts present doji or high-wave candles indicative of indecision, but some P&F and bar charts conflict, and some indices' charts slant to the slightly bearish while some slant to the slightly bullish. After hours, equity futures dipped slightly with Dow futures perhaps dipping slightly more than the others, perhaps erasing some optimism that the Dow was outperforming other indices and would perhaps lead them higher. After-hours developments included disappointing earnings from United Online (UNTD) and lowered revenue guidance from Wireless Facilities (WFII), with both plummeting in after-hours trading. WFII also said it would restate earnings from 2000-2003, blaming foreign taxes for the need to do so. WFII supplies services and equipment for the wireless industry. Biotech ICOS (ICOS) dropped in after-hours trading after it announced a less-than-expected Q2 loss but also less-than-expected revenues. Those results aren't likely to help build optimism, but software company Aspen Technologies (AZPN) beat expectations and was up over 20 percent in after-hours trading. Thurday's economic releases will be light. At 8:30, the Department of Labor releases the initial jobless claims number for the week of 7/31. Initial claims for the previous week had bumped higher, to 345 thousand, but predictions for this week suggest that claims might fall back to 340 thousand. While these numbers are sometimes watched closely, Friday's employment report will probably draw most of the attention this week. Natural gas inventories will also be released Thursday as will the money supply figure, at 10:30 and 4:30, respectively. Tomorrow's performance may be guided by jitters over Friday's non-farm payrolls number, the SOX's ability or inability to confirm its inverse H&S, the SPX's ability or inability to climb above its 200-sma, the Dow's behavior near 10,000 or 10,200, and the price action of crude futures. Crude futures traded lower in after-hours, but approached the downside target of the H&S on the 10-minute chart and appeared to level off. Unfortunately for those of us trying to guess market direction, crude prices depend on geopolitical developments out of our control or beyond our knowledge this evening. A reassurance out of Russia or from OPEC member could send futures lower. A terrorist strike against a pipeline somewhere could send them higher. I can imagine shorts waiting with held breath for a sign that those futures will continue lower, ready with their trigger fingers on the buy-to-cover buttons if they do not. Extended losses in the crude futures may allow markets to steady or even move higher, while a rebound in the crude futures will pressure already-jittery markets. Unless crude futures break through their 50-dma, however, markets will remain under pressure and gains may be tepid or quickly reversed. The suspicion that H&S's or bear flags may be building on some charts on some intraday charts may be deepened. In that climate, perhaps only adept scalpers should consider long positions until any breakout has proven itself. However, I would be careful about any position. Indices appear perched on the edge of precipice and some of those P&F downside targets show just how deep such a precipice could be. However, we've been here before, convinced that markets were going to tank, piling into short positions, only to find ourselves squeezed along with the other shorts. The charts I've displayed above do not offer evidence that markets are yet being pushed over the edge, although they do offer evidence of extreme pressure and indecision about how to respond to that pressure. The markets are at points that have been bought before, and someone is trying to do some buying, but it may or may not stick. The OEX, the index I watch most, is chopping along above weekly support, and many others are chopping above known support, too. In the Market Monitor on OIN, I'm advising subscribers to prepare to be whipsawed if entering any position, have nearby profit targets in mind, and make plans in advance of entering a position to protect any profits, and that's what I advise here, too. One of these days, perhaps soon, markets will begin a directional move, but expect those whipsaws until that happens. ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Doughnuts to Movies and more! Krispy Kreme - KKD - close: 14.48 change: -0.67 WHAT TO WATCH: It was a tough call not to add KKD to the play list as a short this evening. The stock dropped sharply on July 29th when it revealed it was the target of an "informal" SEC inquiry. Now after failing to rebound back above the $16.00 level shares have broken down through round-number support at $15.00 on strong volume. The stock's drop has exceeded its P&F chart bearish target but that doesn't mean it can't keep falling. Aggressive traders may want to use today's weakness as an entry point and target a move toward the $12-11-10 region. --- Netflix - NFLX - close: 17.53 change: -1.72 WHAT TO WATCH: NFLX was another stock we strongly considered adding to the play list as an aggressive short play. On July 26th NFLX tried to produce an oversold bounce from its trendline of lower lows dating back to the low in late February. That oversold bounce couldn't get past the $20.75 level and now the stock has hit a new relative low on high volume. Furthermore today's weakness has broken the trendline of lower lows. The P&F chart is very bearish and points virtually to $0.00. More aggressive traders can use today's drop as an entry point and target a move to round-number support at $15.00 although $15.00 may not hold up. Alternatively we can look for a potential bounce/failed rally near $18.50. --- Greater Bay Bancorp - GBBK - close: 25.50 change: -0.15 WHAT TO WATCH: GBBK has been trading in a $4.00 range between $26 and $30.00 since the middle of December 2003. Now shares have broken down through the bottom of this range and it looks like an entry point to get short. The P&F chart currently targets a drop to the $21.00 level but this target could move lower. Consider a stop loss above resistance at $27.00. --- United Online - UNTD - close: 13.85 change: -1.21 WHAT TO WATCH: UNTD lost more than 8 percent and broke down to new one-year lows after reporting earnings that beat by a penny but guided lower for the third quarter. Now the stock looks headed toward the $11.75-11.50 region, which happens to coincide with its bearish P&F target. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- ALO $12.43 -3.79 - Ouch! ALO was on our weekend watch list as a bearish candidate. Today the stock dropped more than 23% to $12.43 after management issued a disappointing outlook. MLI $38.36 +0.79 - Patient traders might want to give MLI a closer look. The stock has been a steady climber recently and is near new multi-year highs. FBP $42.62 +1.02 - Readers might want to consider bullish plays in FBP. The stock is breaking out above the neckline of an inverse H&S pattern that points to a $49-50 target. Consider a trigger above $43.00 or $43.50. ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change BCS Barclays Plc (ADR) 35.08 +1.13 FNM Fannie Mae 71.46 +0.53 PRU Prudential Financial Inc 46.36 +0.60 CNI Canadian Natl Railway 45.75 +0.53 PNC PNC Financial Svcs Grp 50.82 +0.65 ITU Banco Itau S A (ADR) 47.16 +0.72 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- OI Owens Illinois Inc 16.53 +1.07 PDLI Protein Design Labs Inc 17.14 +1.82 NTRT Netratings Incorporated 14.51 +1.71 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- TS Tenaris Sa 38.79 +1.97 RL Polo Ralph Lauren Corp 34.56 +1.44 ACAS American Capital Strat 30.08 +1.27 HCC HCC Insurance Holdings 30.81 +1.11 CERN Cerner Corp 47.06 +1.45 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- NWS News Corporation Ltd 32.80 -1.55 CSR Credit Suisse Group 30.62 -1.67 IACI IAC/Interactive Corp 22.80 -4.23 ECA Encana Corporation 43.56 -1.29 CFC Countrywide Financial 68.28 -3.27 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- PTR Petrochina Co Ltd (ADS) 49.43 -0.77 IFIN Investors Fin Svcs Cp 44.97 -0.84 PKZ Petroazakhstan Inc 30.35 -1.55 JAH Jarden Corp 34.06 -1.69 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Wednesday 08-04-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: ENDP Net Bulls (Tech Stocks) New Bearish Plays: NATI Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks) New Bullish plays: NXL ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== ENDP - high risk/reward short - ENDP fell 8.6 percent on Wednesday fueled by more than four times the average volume after the company announced a secondary offering of 11 million shares at $17.70. According to Reuters most of the shares are being sold by ENDP's controlling shareholder, management and employees. -- Some short-term traders may want to exit now with decent profit. Others may want to significantly tighten stops above today's high ($17.50). We're still targeting a move to the $15 level and will lower our stop loss from $20.06 to $18.75. ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- Natl. Instrument Corp - NATI - cls: 27.83 chg: -0.47 stop: 29.07 Company Description: National Instruments is a technology pioneer and leader in virtual instrumentation -- a revolutionary concept that has changed the way engineers and scientists approach measurement and automation. Leveraging the PC and its related technologies, virtual instrumentation increases productivity and lowers costs through easy-to-integrate software, such as the NI LabVIEW graphical development environment, and modular hardware, such as PXI modules for data acquisition, instrument control and machine vision. Headquartered in Austin, Texas, NI has more than 3,200 employees and direct operations in 40 countries. In 2003, the company sold products to more than 25,000 companies in 90 countries. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: There wasn't much confidence in NATI ahead of its Q2 earnings report and shares sank throughout the month of July like most of the tech sector. Then NATI reported earnings with revenues soaring 27% to $127.1 million, which is a record. Business is certainly improving but NATI actually missed estimates by 2 cents and then guided earnings under analysts' estimates for the third quarter. So why did shares soar so high on the news? Who knows? Maybe it was a short squeeze sparked by the record revenue number. Now NATI's oversold bounce is fading and volume was above average on Wednesday's drop through the $28 level. The bearish turn in the short-term technical and NATI's short-term overbought status makes this feel like a low-risk opportunity to short the stock. We're going to start the play with a stop loss at the recent highs ($29.07). Our initial target is the $25.00 region but more aggressive traders might want to hold out for a drop to its P&F target of $23.00 or its P&F support at $21.00. Annotated Chart: Picked on August 04 at $27.83 Gain since picked: - 0.00 Earnings Date 07/27/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 309 thousand ================================================================== Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section ================================================================== --------- New Plays --------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- New Plan Excel Realty - NXL - close: 25.06 chg: +0.43 stop: 24.00 Company Description: New Plan Excel Realty Trust, Inc. is one of the nation's largest real estate companies, focusing on the ownership and management of community and neighborhood shopping centers. The Company operates as a self-administered and self-managed REIT, with a national portfolio of 401 properties, including 23 properties held through joint ventures, and total assets of approximately $3.7 billion. Its properties are strategically located across 34 states and include 375 community and neighborhood shopping centers, primarily grocery or name-brand discount chain anchored, with approximately 54.6 million square feet of gross leasable area, and 26 related retail real estate assets, with approximately 2.2 million square feet of gross leasable area. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: We're adding NXL to the play list as a long due to its relative strength and its technical breakout. The entire REIT sector has been out performing the broader markets the last couple of days. We like NXL because shares have been rising on big volume. Three days ago the stock soared through price resistance at $24.50 and technical resistance at its simple 200-dma on volume more than 2.5 times its average. Yesterday NXL retest the 200-dma as support and today is seeing some strong follow through - all on big volume. The clover over what could have been potential round-number resistance at $25.00 is encouraging. We're going to target a move to the $27.00-27.50 range over the next four to six weeks. We'll start the play with a stop loss at $24.00 Annotated Chart: Picked on August 04 at $25.06 Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 07/29/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 395 thousand ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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