PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 08-05-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Markets Fears Pink Slips Market Sentiment: One-Two Punch Watch List: Plenty of breakdowns. ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 08-05-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 9963.03 -163.50 10129.09 9955.73 1.69 bln 864/2308 NASDAQ 1821.63 - 33.43 1859.77 1820.21 1.57 bln 830/2230 S&P 100 530.19 - 8.30 538.52 529.79 Totals 1694/4538 S&P 500 1080.70 - 17.93 1098.83 1079.98 W5000 10472.27 -173.52 10649.56 10466.40 SOX 402.39 - 4.40 412.22 401.86 RUS 2000 532.36 - 10.31 542.74 532.09 DJ TRANS 3054.83 - 64.60 3120.41 3054.21 VIX 18.32 + 2.11 18.41 16.17 VXO (VIX-O)18.12 + 2.34 18.20 15.84 VXN 26.19 + 1.14 26.25 24.96 Total Volume 3,539M Total UpVol 433M Total DnVol 3,035M Total Adv 1868 Total Dcl 5019 52wk Highs 43 52wk Lows 234 TRIN 2.67 NAZTRIN 2.18 PUT/CALL 0.86 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Markets Fears Pink Slips by Jim Brown There were multiple reasons given for the market slide today and fear of a disastrous Jobs report on Friday was one of them. Given the current environment of daily terror news, oil at new highs and election polls changing leaders daily the last thing investors want to worry about is losing jobs in a weak economy. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart It was a day that started out ugly and got worse. The Jobless Claims came in -4,000 below expectations and -11,000 from last week and that was the best news for the day. Last weeks number was revised up +2,000 to 347,000. The Jobless Claims have been volatile over the last several weeks and the slight dip today did nothing to assure traders that the jobs report on Friday was going to hit estimates. The higher trend on Jobless Claims is said to be due to temporary layoffs in the auto industry as they retool for 2005 production models. Tomorrow at 8:30 AM we will know for sure. Another leading indicator for Jobs was the Monster Employment Index which fell from 136 to 134 for July. This was a very minor drop and 136 was the recent high. A summer slow down from those highs was to be expected. There are no seasonal adjustments to the Index so the number was likely better than any adjusted number as the Nonfarm Payroll will be. The larger companies continued to increase their listings but postings from medium to small companies fell slightly. This is a very broad sample gathered from over 1500 websites in addition to Monster.com. Friday's Jobs report is expected to show +220,000 new jobs and well over the +112,000 created in June. The markets have been expressing some fear that this will be a disaster of a report based on anecdotal reports of an economic slowdown. Recently the actual economics have been mixed and about as consistent as Forrest Gump's box of chocolates. The June Jobs report itself showed a drop in jobs for the second consecutive month and a drop in manufacturing payrolls for the first time since January. The whisper numbers for tomorrow are running about 260K to 280K on the high side and well under 100K on the low end. This sets up the potential for a volatile trading day. Any number over 200K is sure to produce an immediate bounce from our very oversold close on Thursday. The market was pricing in the risk of jobs miss and based on the closing drop they must have been afraid of a potentially negative number. Also hurting the market were July Chain Store Sales that came in at +3.1% and slightly better than June's +3.0%. Considering all the negative press on consumer weakness I would have thought traders would have cheered the positive number. Instead they dumped retail stocks once again. The +3.1% number was about half of the first five months average and despite the firming at the lows the sector was depressed. Helping to fuel that depression was another new high on oil at $44.55 and the feeling that consumers were going to be pouring money into the gas tank rather than in the stores. This was a 21 year high for the crude contract and a complete reversal of the selling seen on Wednesday. The sharp jump in oil came from a news report from Russia that officials have decided NOT to allow Yukos to spend any money and their oil production was again in danger. Adding to the fear was increased concerns about terrorist attacks on production/transportation facilities in Saudi Arabia in front of our elections. There is also an increasing fear that we are reaching Hubbert's Peak in oil. In 1956 M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist working for Shell Oil predicted oil production in the U.S. would peak in the early 1970s. Nearly everyone on the planet disagreed with him until the prediction came true in 1970 and U.S. oil production has declined ever since. Basically all the easy money has been made and every oil find since has cost more money to find and produce with finds becoming smaller and harder. This has since been referred to as Hubbert's Peak. There are two recent books on this subject with predictions for a decline in world production much nearer than previously thought. The last big oil field, 87 billion barrels, was found in 1960 in Ghwar, Saudi Arabia. With 45 years of fevered searching since then the number and quality of finds has continued to decrease. At our present rate of consumption a find of another field of that size would only push the eventual peak out by 2-3 years assuming it could be extracted almost immediately. With oil demand escalating sharply and proven reserves slowing the general scientific consensus for the peak in global production is estimated to be around 2007. This may come as a shock for most readers and it will be a huge shock for most Americans when oil prices pass $50 before the decade is out. Heck, they could pass $50 before the month is out if the trend continues. According to experts current world oil demand as of April was 80.9 million barrels per day. That is about 2.5 BILLION barrels per month. With demand rising and supply slowing the future is clear. Searchers cannot find new supplies of 2.5 billion barrels per month indefinitely. The challenge is not going to be the day where we run out of oil as that could be decades away. The challenge for the U.S. and the world is rising demand and shrinking supplies will continue to push prices higher. Prices may retreat once this current rally ends on higher production by OPEC but it will only be temporary. Companies who depend on oil for their products are starting to feel the heat and it will not be long before earnings reports start to be revised down from higher energy prices. $50 oil may be here much sooner than expected and while consumers may have become accustomed to $2.00 gas they may dream of that level by 2010. I may have gotten a little carried away in this explanation but traders need to know the facts behind the current oil bubble may be real and the bubble may only shrink temporarily and not burst. So, with oil hitting new highs, news of terror arrests in the U.S. and other countries, suspicious packages in two airports, mixed economics, earnings warnings and fear of the jobs report it is no wonder the markets sold off once again. Add in the fear of the Fed next Tuesday and the start of the Olympics next week and investors fled to the safety of the sidelines. We also saw a survey today that said 32% of affluent investors were moving to the safety of cash on the sidelines during August. This was up from only 22% for July. 29% of investors were planning on keeping new cash off the playing field completely compared to 26% in July. As if that was not enough we are faced with the normal -30% lower volume in August compared to July. We all know how bad volume was in July and a -30% drop from those levels suggests volatility could be extreme. That volatility hit today with the VXO jumping +2.34 to 18.12. That is the highest level since May but long time readers realize that it is still low by historical standards. The Dow lost -165 points on Thursday and closed back below 10,000 at 9960. Still well above the May lows and slightly above the 9913 low from last week. This was the biggest one day drop for the Dow in five months. The Nasdaq fell -33 points to 1821 and the lowest close since September 2003. Multiple levels of resistance have been broken and 1800 is now the next potential support. Tech stocks have seen negative cash flow from mutual funds for the last 27 straight weeks. The SOX, normally a directional leader for the Nasdaq did not set a new low and closed at 402 and a surprising performance considering the implosion in the other indexes. After the bell today NVDA missed earnings by 12 cents and did not have positive things to say so the SOX may be a little weaker tomorrow. The Russell, also a contributor to the Nasdaq was a detractor today with a drop to the May and July lows at 532. The Russell suffers from a liquidity drain during summer months and this year it is compounded from event risk. Despite all the negatives above there was no real fear in the market. That is surprising considering the down volume was nearly 9:1 over up volume and the jump in the VXO. I am basing this on the tame put/call ratio at 0.86. This is just a normal reading of late and shows no panic to buy puts. It also suggests investors have already positioned their portfolios and are waiting on the sidelines for fall. There are simply no buyers. I have mentioned before that many mutual funds are sitting on hoards of cash approaching +30% in some cases. I saw an interview yesterday with a Wyndam manager who said he was 80% in cash. I was expecting some of this cash to be put to work this week with the Democratic convention behind us. That plan was shredded on Monday with the announcement of the NY terror plans against financial institutions. Chalk up another historical trend fallen by the wayside and a casualty of a news event. SPX Chart – weekly For Friday we have the Jobs report hurdle at 8:30 and a strongly positive number could give us an oversold rebound. A miss is already priced in but a negative number could really be earth shaking. Tuesday the Fed will likely hike rates again and the surprise there would be no hike. They could get away with it based on the oil price inflation. Back to Friday, I would be satisfied just to see us escape another new low on the Dow and S&P. I have pointed out several times that the real support for the market is 1068-1070 on the SPX and we are really close with our 1080 close. Another very important support line is the 200 week moving average on the SPX at, you guessed it, 1080. All the indexes have lower highs in place from last weeks bounce and could easily continue downward. However, the retest of the May/July lows today could be seen as a successful double bottom in some cases and a launch point for a temporary trading rally. I say temporary because of the multiple high risk events should keep a lid on any rebound. The game plan from last Sunday was still to remain long over 1100 and short/flat under 1100. I would change that today based on the multiple support tests. I would look to be long over SPX 1080 and short below 1068. Don't get married to your positions because this is a pure trading environment. For traders this is a great environment for profits. We may be getting close to a bottom of this correction and new bargains are being created every day but it is too soon to buy and hold. Set your sights a little lower and let's see if we can steal some bargains over the next four weeks. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== One-Two Punch - J. Brown Stocks too a nosedive on Thursday as investors dealt with the one-two punch of skyrocketing oil and fears of worse than expected job growth. Without a doubt the oversold bounce is dead and the major indices are now looking at setting new relative lows. Impacting stocks across the board was a new all-time high in crude oil above $44 a barrel. The move was exaggerated by news that the Kremlin is playing Russian roulette with oil giant Yukos. The government once again froze its bank accounts and the move is expected to impact Yukos' ability to continue oil production. Should production stall it would immediately remove any remaining capacity in the global markets creating an environment ripe for oil "shocks" should terrorists make a move to interrupt supply. While some speculate that crude could hit $50 a barrel the other side feels that these highs are temporary and that crude will be back around $35 a barrel by our November elections. The jobs question is a big one that will be answered tomorrow. The non-farm payrolls report comes out Friday morning about an hour before the market open. This presents an opportunity for a gap up or down depending on the numbers. Right now estimates are for the economy to have added 245,000 jobs in July but last month the report was disappointing. A bad number would raise new questions about the strength of the economy and undermine President Bush's re-election efforts. A positive number could spark a short-term reversal in stocks depending how strong growth comes in. Whatever the number happens to be the FOMC will be watching and evaluating how it affects their stance on monetary policy. Currently the market is expecting a 25-basis point hike at the Fed meeting next week. The market internals today were very bearish. Declining stocks outnumbered advancers by more than 3-to-1 on the NYSE and almost as bad on the NASDAQ. Down volume was 7-to-1 over up volume on the NYSE and about 4-to-1 on the NASDAQ. Not one sector index managed to close in the green indicating the breadth of the sell- off. It is interesting to note that the volatility indices all hit new two-month highs. Yet they still have a ways to go yet before hitting their May or March highs when the stock market indices bottomed. This might suggest that stocks will hit a new relative low before reversing. Fortunately, that may be sooner rather than later as some of the moving averages on the ARMS index are nearing bullish levels. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 8997 Current : 9963 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10076 50-dma: 10205 200-dma: 10228 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 960 Current : 1080 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1095 50-dma: 1112 200-dma: 1107 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1204 Current : 1353 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1389 50-dma: 1429 200-dma: 1446 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 18.32 +2.11 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 18.09 +2.31 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 26.19 +1.14 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.86 611,312 525,243 Equity Only 0.70 462,895 321,930 OEX 0.72 32,743 23,625 QQQ 1.14 58,934 67,438 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 57.3 - 2 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 33.0 - 1 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 53.3 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 52.4 - 1 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 54.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.50 10-dma: 1.36 21-dma: 1.32 55-dma: 1.17 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 634 809 Decliners 2135 2192 New Highs 22 22 New Lows 82 158 Up Volume 194M 224M Down Vol. 1457M 1296M Total Vol. 1685M 1551M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/27/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials are turning a bit more bearish with a decrease in long positions and a small increase in shorts. Small traders are naturally turning a bit more bullish with a decrease in shorts. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 07/06/04 402,952 416,526 (13,574) (1.7%) 07/13/04 407,166 416,869 ( 9,703) (1.2%) 07/22/04 404,828 419,017 (14,189) (1.7%) 07/27/04 397,354 422,914 (25,560) (3.1%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/06/04 132,423 90,748 41,675 18.7% 07/13/04 133,935 95,787 38,148 16.6% 07/22/04 138,123 94,990 43,133 15.5% 07/27/04 135,136 90,433 44,703 19.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercial traders have decreased their bearishness by upping their long contacts by about 20K. Small traders are hedging their bets a bit by reducing their bullish positions. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 07/06/04 287,442 423,583 (136,141) (19.1%) 07/13/04 265,142 427,017 (161,875) (23.4%) 07/22/04 309,972 428,240 (118,268) (16.0%) 07/27/04 337,615 429,477 ( 91,862) (12.0%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/06/04 219,321 58,567 160,754 57.8% 07/13/04 225,410 57,699 167,711 59.2% 07/22/04 212,078 62,416 149,662 54.5% 07/27/04 186,211 68,930 117,281 46.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders are still hovering around the same level of cautious bullishness for the last three weeks. Small traders have moved from bearish to less bearish to neutral in the last three weeks (thus a bullish progression in sentiment). Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 07/06/04 42,245 37,343 4,902 6.2% 07/13/04 44,211 37,007 7,204 8.9% 07/22/04 45,069 37,975 7,094 8.5% 07/27/04 43,042 35,935 7,107 9.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/06/04 9,345 16,527 (7,182) (27.8%) 07/13/04 7,847 15,243 (7,396) (32.0%) 07/22/04 9,398 11,776 (2,378) (11.2%) 07/27/04 14,543 14,518 25 0.0% Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL The bullish sentiment from the commercial traders dipped a tad this past week with an increase in their short positions. Meanwhile small traders have significantly adjusted their positions to be less bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 07/06/04 27,214 20,775 6,439 13.4% 07/13/04 27,773 20,573 7,200 14.9% 07/22/04 27,957 20,389 7,568 15.7% 07/27/04 27,577 21,427 6,150 12.5% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/06/04 5,969 8,227 (2,258) (15.9%) 07/13/04 5,292 9,068 (3,776) (26.3%) 07/22/04 4,857 7,297 (2,440) (20.1%) 07/27/04 5,310 6,099 ( 789) ( 6.9%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Plenty of breakdowns. First Marblehead - FMD - close: 39.24 change: -1.41 WHAT TO WATCH: The rally in this financial services stock is fading and traders might feel the need to do some profit taking if the broader indices keep falling. Today's drop through round- number support at the $40.00 mark and its simple 40-dma certainly don't bode well. Some traders may want to use the breakdown as an entry point and target a drop to the $35.00 level near its simple 100-dma. Be careful and avoid FMD's August 12th earnings report. --- Cost Plus - CPWM - close: 30.41 change: -1.16 WHAT TO WATCH: CPWM came back from the brink today. The stock has been stuck in a trading range between $30 and $34 for the last couple of months. The company preannounced revenues at the high end of their guidance today and shares went south on the news. Bulls bought the dip and CPWM rebounded back above the $30.00 level but it couldn't save the MACD from producing a new "sell" signal. Looking at the long-term chart and you'll see how important support at the $30.00 level is. A breakdown could lead to a drop toward $25-24. We'd watch for a drop through today's low ($29.70) and use it as an entry point for bearish positions. --- Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 17.76 change: -0.70 WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding NTAP to the play list tonight as a bearish play. The recent bounce has faded and its MACD is nearing a new "sell" signal. Short-term technicals are already bearish and Thursday's drop through the $18.00 mark looks like an entry point. The six-month trend of lower lows suggests that traders could target a drop to the $16.00 level. The P&F chart is more bearish with an $11 target. --- Novellus - NVLS - close: 25.68 change: -0.45 WHAT TO WATCH: We're still watching this semiconductor stock for a drop through significant psychological, round-number support at $25.00. The trend of lower highs suggest a breakdown is coming. The P&F chart already shows a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal with a $19.00 target. Watch for a drop through $25.00 and target a drop to $20 but consider the comments in tonight's market wrap and the possibility of a market bottom in the near future. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- TSO $22.65 -3.75 - Several of the high-flying oil-related stocks have run into some serious profit taking. TSO has broken its rising channel and technical support at the 40, 50 and now the 100-dma's. Volume has been very strong. Watch for a drop to $20. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Thursday 08-05-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= Stop Adjustments: FCS, RSAS, CCBl, CMTL, NATI, NXL, DLTR Stock Splits: ANSS, BGG, PGTV Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================= FCS - tech stock long - We remain un-triggered in FCS. --- RSAS - tech stock long - Be careful here. The stock is suffering a bit with the market melt down today. Technicals are starting to sour. --- CCBL - tech stock short - Wow! We're very impressed that CCBL held up so well today during the market's drop. Of course that's bad news for our short play. --- CMTL - tech stock short - Lower the stop on CMTL from 20.35 to $20.01. --- NATI - tech stock short - So far so good. NATI closed near its lows and broke down under its simple 10 and 21-dma's. --- NXL - non-tech long - Look for a bounce from the simple 200-dma or the $24.25 level. --- DLTR - non-tech short - Shares of DLTR fell more than 8.5% to $24.55 after announcing that Q2 same-store sales slipped 0.2 percent. The company also guided lower under analysts' estimates for Q2 and Q3 revenues. Volume on today's decline was almost four times the norm and suggest DLTR should see more weakness. Remember that we're targeting a drop to the $22-20 range. We're going to lower the stop from $27.75 to $27.01. ================================================================= Stock Splits ================================================================= Announcements ------------- ANSS engineers a 2-for-1 stock split This morning before the opening bell ANSYS Inc. (NASDAQ:ANSS) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. The split will take the form of a stock dividend to be paid on October 4th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of September 3rd. Post-split ANSS will have approximately 31.0 million shares outstanding. About the company: ANSYS, Inc., founded in 1970, develops and globally markets engineering simulation software and technologies widely used by engineers and designers across a broad spectrum of industries. ANSYS focuses on the development of open and flexible solutions that enable users to analyze designs directly on the desktop, providing a common platform for fast, efficient and cost- conscious product development, from design concept to final-stage testing and validation. Headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania U.S.A. with more than 25 strategic sales locations throughout the world, ANSYS, Inc. employs approximately 550 people and distributes its products through a network of channel partners in 40 countries. (Source: Company Press Release) --- BGG announces a 2-for-1 stock split One day before its earnings report Briggs & Stratton Corp (NYSE:BGG) announced that its Board of Directors, at their quarterly meeting, declared a 2-for-1 stock split. The split is subject to shareholder approval at the company's annual meeting on October 20th, 2004 wherein shareholders will vote to increase the number of authorized shares from 60 million to 120 million. If approved the split will be paid to shareholders on record as of October 29th. No date was provided for the actual distribution date. BGG also increased their quarterly cash dividend to 34 cents a share payable on October 1st, 2004 to shareholders on record as of August 24th. About the company: Briggs & Stratton Corp. is the largest manufacturer of small, air- cooled engines for outdoor lawn & garden power equipment, generators and pressure washers. The company designs, manufactures, markets and services these products for original equipment manufacturers in over 100 countries on all seven continents. (Source: Company Press Release) --- PGTV beams down a 2-for-1 stock split Just minutes before Thursday's opening bell Pegasus Communications Corp (NASDAQ:PGTV) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. The split will be paid as a dividend on August 26th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of August 19th. About the company: Pegasus Communications Corporation is the ultimate parent company of Pegasus Satellite Television, the largest independent distributor of DIRECTV serving approximately 1.1 million subscribers; Pegasus Broadcast Television, owner and/or operator of nine television stations affiliated with CBS, FOX, UPN and the WB Network; Pegasus Development Corporation, licensee of two Ka satellite authorizations granted by the FCC and intellectual property rights licensed from Personalized Media Communications L.L.C; Pegasus Guard Band LLC, licensee of 700 MHZ spectrum covering areas of the United States including approximately 180 million people; and Pegasus Rural Broadband LLC, which provides wireless broadband Internet access in rural areas. (Source: Company Press Release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PDX Pediatrix Medical 65.10 +0.95 PRX Par Pharma 38.70 +0.52 GVA Granite Construction 20.46 +2.26 CUB Cubic Corp 22.52 +2.42 CVTI Covenant Transport 18.85 +0.57 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- VRX Valeant Pharmaceuticals 19.63 +1.58 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- IST Ispat Intl Nv 23.76 +4.39 UVN Univision Comm. 34.00 +4.28 KOSP Kos Pharmaceuticals 34.61 +5.86 HANS Hansen Natural 23.54 +2.45 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- TJX TJX Companies 21.47 -1.36 VLO Valero Energy 67.50 -4.83 SNN Smith & Nephew 44.37 -5.41 SII Smith Intl. Inc 54.88 -1.25 AZO AutoZone 72.25 -2.35 SUN Sunoco Inc 61.30 -3.85 WHR Whirlpool 59.74 -2.52 WTW Weight Watchers 36.90 -1.72 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- MWV Meadwestvaco 29.30 -0.37 UPL Ultra Petroleum 41.10 -2.96 ESL Esterline Technology 30.68 -0.30 SBR Sabine Royalty 36.85 -1.50 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright 2003 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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