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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 08/05/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 08-05-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Markets Fears Pink Slips
Market Sentiment: One-Two Punch
Watch List:       Plenty of breakdowns.


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      08-05-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     9963.03 -163.50 10129.09  9955.73 1.69 bln  864/2308
NASDAQ   1821.63 - 33.43  1859.77  1820.21 1.57 bln  830/2230
S&P 100   530.19 -  8.30   538.52   529.79   Totals 1694/4538
S&P 500  1080.70 - 17.93  1098.83  1079.98
W5000   10472.27 -173.52 10649.56 10466.40
SOX       402.39 -  4.40   412.22   401.86
RUS 2000  532.36 - 10.31   542.74   532.09
DJ TRANS 3054.83 - 64.60  3120.41  3054.21
VIX        18.32 +  2.11    18.41    16.17
VXO (VIX-O)18.12 +  2.34    18.20    15.84
VXN        26.19 +  1.14    26.25    24.96
Total Volume 3,539M
Total UpVol    433M
Total DnVol  3,035M
Total Adv  1868
Total Dcl  5019
52wk Highs   43
52wk Lows   234
TRIN       2.67
NAZTRIN    2.18
PUT/CALL   0.86
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Markets Fears Pink Slips
by Jim Brown

There were multiple reasons given for the market slide
today and fear of a disastrous Jobs report on Friday
was one of them. Given the current environment of daily
terror news, oil at new highs and election polls changing
leaders daily the last thing investors want to worry
about is losing jobs in a weak economy.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart



It was a day that started out ugly and got worse. The
Jobless Claims came in -4,000 below expectations and
-11,000 from last week and that was the best news for
the day. Last weeks number was revised up +2,000 to
347,000. The Jobless Claims have been volatile over
the last several weeks and the slight dip today did
nothing to assure traders that the jobs report on
Friday was going to hit estimates. The higher trend
on Jobless Claims is said to be due to temporary
layoffs in the auto industry as they retool for 2005
production models. Tomorrow at 8:30 AM we will know
for sure.

Another leading indicator for Jobs was the Monster
Employment Index which fell from 136 to 134 for July.
This was a very minor drop and 136 was the recent high.
A summer slow down from those highs was to be expected.
There are no seasonal adjustments to the Index so the
number was likely better than any adjusted number as
the Nonfarm Payroll will be. The larger companies
continued to increase their listings but postings
from medium to small companies fell slightly. This
is a very broad sample gathered from over 1500
websites in addition to Monster.com.

Friday's Jobs report is expected to show +220,000 new
jobs and well over the +112,000 created in June. The
markets have been expressing some fear that this will
be a disaster of a report based on anecdotal reports
of an economic slowdown. Recently the actual economics
have been mixed and about as consistent as Forrest
Gump's box of chocolates. The June Jobs report itself
showed a drop in jobs for the second consecutive month
and a drop in manufacturing payrolls for the first time
since January. The whisper numbers for tomorrow are
running about 260K to 280K on the high side and well
under 100K on the low end. This sets up the potential
for a volatile trading day. Any number over 200K is
sure to produce an immediate bounce from our very
oversold close on Thursday. The market was pricing in
the risk of jobs miss and based on the closing drop
they must have been afraid of a potentially negative
number.

Also hurting the market were July Chain Store Sales
that came in at +3.1% and slightly better than June's
+3.0%. Considering all the negative press on consumer
weakness I would have thought traders would have
cheered the positive number. Instead they dumped
retail stocks once again. The +3.1% number was about
half of the first five months average and despite the
firming at the lows the sector was depressed.

Helping to fuel that depression was another new high
on oil at $44.55 and the feeling that consumers were
going to be pouring money into the gas tank rather
than in the stores. This was a 21 year high for the
crude contract and a complete reversal of the selling
seen on Wednesday. The sharp jump in oil came from a
news report from Russia that officials have decided
NOT to allow Yukos to spend any money and their
oil production was again in danger. Adding to the
fear was increased concerns about terrorist attacks
on production/transportation facilities in Saudi
Arabia in front of our elections.

There is also an increasing fear that we are reaching
Hubbert's Peak in oil. In 1956 M. King Hubbert, a
geophysicist working for Shell Oil predicted oil
production in the U.S. would peak in the early 1970s.
Nearly everyone on the planet disagreed with him until
the prediction came true in 1970 and U.S. oil production
has declined ever since. Basically all the easy money
has been made and every oil find since has cost more
money to find and produce with finds becoming smaller
and harder. This has since been referred to as Hubbert's
Peak. There are two recent books on this subject with
predictions for a decline in world production much
nearer than previously thought.

The last big oil field, 87 billion barrels, was found
in 1960 in Ghwar, Saudi Arabia. With 45 years of
fevered searching since then the number and quality
of finds has continued to decrease. At our present
rate of consumption a find of another field of that
size would only push the eventual peak out by 2-3
years assuming it could be extracted almost immediately.
With oil demand escalating sharply and proven reserves
slowing the general scientific consensus for the peak
in global production is estimated to be around 2007.
This may come as a shock for most readers and it will
be a huge shock for most Americans when oil prices
pass $50 before the decade is out. Heck, they could
pass $50 before the month is out if the trend continues.

According to experts current world oil demand as of
April was 80.9 million barrels per day. That is about
2.5 BILLION barrels per month. With demand rising and
supply slowing the future is clear. Searchers cannot
find new supplies of 2.5 billion barrels per month
indefinitely. The challenge is not going to be the
day where we run out of oil as that could be decades
away. The challenge for the U.S. and the world is
rising demand and shrinking supplies will continue
to push prices higher. Prices may retreat once this
current rally ends on higher production by OPEC but
it will only be temporary. Companies who depend on
oil for their products are starting to feel the heat
and it will not be long before earnings reports start
to be revised down from higher energy prices. $50 oil
may be here much sooner than expected and while
consumers may have become accustomed to $2.00 gas
they may dream of that level by 2010. I may have
gotten a little carried away in this explanation but
traders need to know the facts behind the current oil
bubble may be real and the bubble may only shrink
temporarily and not burst.

So, with oil hitting new highs, news of terror arrests
in the U.S. and other countries, suspicious packages
in two airports, mixed economics, earnings warnings
and fear of the jobs report it is no wonder the markets
sold off once again. Add in the fear of the Fed next
Tuesday and the start of the Olympics next week and
investors fled to the safety of the sidelines. We
also saw a survey today that said 32% of affluent
investors were moving to the safety of cash on the
sidelines during August. This was up from only 22%
for July. 29% of investors were planning on keeping
new cash off the playing field completely compared to
26% in July. As if that was not enough we are faced
with the normal -30% lower volume in August compared
to July. We all know how bad volume was in July and
a -30% drop from those levels suggests volatility
could be extreme.

That volatility hit today with the VXO jumping +2.34
to 18.12. That is the highest level since May but long
time readers realize that it is still low by historical
standards. The Dow lost -165 points on Thursday and
closed back below 10,000 at 9960. Still well above
the May lows and slightly above the 9913 low from
last week. This was the biggest one day drop for the
Dow in five months.

The Nasdaq fell -33 points to 1821 and the lowest
close since September 2003. Multiple levels of
resistance have been broken and 1800 is now the
next potential support. Tech stocks have seen negative
cash flow from mutual funds for the last 27 straight
weeks. The SOX, normally a directional leader for the
Nasdaq did not set a new low and closed at 402 and
a surprising performance considering the implosion
in the other indexes. After the bell today NVDA missed
earnings by 12 cents and did not have positive things
to say so the SOX may be a little weaker tomorrow.
The Russell, also a contributor to the Nasdaq was a
detractor today with a drop to the May and July lows
at 532. The Russell suffers from a liquidity drain
during summer months and this year it is compounded
from event risk.

Despite all the negatives above there was no real
fear in the market. That is surprising considering
the down volume was nearly 9:1 over up volume and
the jump in the VXO. I am basing this on the tame
put/call ratio at 0.86. This is just a normal reading
of late and shows no panic to buy puts. It also
suggests investors have already positioned their
portfolios and are waiting on the sidelines for
fall. There are simply no buyers. I have mentioned
before that many mutual funds are sitting on hoards
of cash approaching +30% in some cases. I saw an
interview yesterday with a Wyndam manager who said
he was 80% in cash. I was expecting some of this
cash to be put to work this week with the Democratic
convention behind us. That plan was shredded on
Monday with the announcement of the NY terror plans
against financial institutions. Chalk up another
historical trend fallen by the wayside and a
casualty of a news event.

SPX Chart – weekly



For Friday we have the Jobs report hurdle at 8:30
and a strongly positive number could give us an
oversold rebound. A miss is already priced in but
a negative number could really be earth shaking.
Tuesday the Fed will likely hike rates again and
the surprise there would be no hike. They could
get away with it based on the oil price inflation.
Back to Friday, I would be satisfied just to see
us escape another new low on the Dow and S&P. I
have pointed out several times that the real support
for the market is 1068-1070 on the SPX and we are
really close with our 1080 close. Another very
important support line is the 200 week moving average
on the SPX at, you guessed it, 1080. All the indexes
have lower highs in place from last weeks bounce and
could easily continue downward. However, the retest
of the May/July lows today could be seen as a successful
double bottom in some cases and a launch point for a
temporary trading rally. I say temporary because of
the multiple high risk events should keep a lid on
any rebound.

The game plan from last Sunday was still to remain
long over 1100 and short/flat under 1100. I would
change that today based on the multiple support
tests. I would look to be long over SPX 1080 and
short below 1068. Don't get married to your positions
because this is a pure trading environment. For traders
this is a great environment for profits. We may be
getting close to a bottom of this correction and
new bargains are being created every day but it is
too soon to buy and hold. Set your sights a little
lower and let's see if we can steal some bargains
over the next four weeks.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

One-Two Punch
 - J. Brown

Stocks too a nosedive on Thursday as investors dealt with the
one-two punch of skyrocketing oil and fears of worse than
expected job growth.  Without a doubt the oversold bounce is dead
and the major indices are now looking at setting new relative
lows.

Impacting stocks across the board was a new all-time high in
crude oil above $44 a barrel.  The move was exaggerated by news
that the Kremlin is playing Russian roulette with oil giant
Yukos.  The government once again froze its bank accounts and the
move is expected to impact Yukos' ability to continue oil
production.  Should production stall it would immediately remove
any remaining capacity in the global markets creating an
environment ripe for oil "shocks" should terrorists make a move
to interrupt supply.  While some speculate that crude could hit
$50 a barrel the other side feels that these highs are temporary
and that crude will be back around $35 a barrel by our November
elections.

The jobs question is a big one that will be answered tomorrow.
The non-farm payrolls report comes out Friday morning about an
hour before the market open.  This presents an opportunity for a
gap up or down depending on the numbers.  Right now estimates are
for the economy to have added 245,000 jobs in July but last month
the report was disappointing.  A bad number would raise new
questions about the strength of the economy and undermine
President Bush's re-election efforts.  A positive number could
spark a short-term reversal in stocks depending how strong growth
comes in.  Whatever the number happens to be the FOMC will be
watching and evaluating how it affects their stance on monetary
policy.  Currently the market is expecting a 25-basis point hike
at the Fed meeting next week.

The market internals today were very bearish.  Declining stocks
outnumbered advancers by more than 3-to-1 on the NYSE and almost
as bad on the NASDAQ. Down volume was 7-to-1 over up volume on
the NYSE and about 4-to-1 on the NASDAQ.  Not one sector index
managed to close in the green indicating the breadth of the sell-
off.

It is interesting to note that the volatility indices all hit new
two-month highs.  Yet they still have a ways to go yet before
hitting their May or March highs when the stock market indices
bottomed.  This might suggest that stocks will hit a new relative
low before reversing.  Fortunately, that may be sooner rather
than later as some of the moving averages on the ARMS index are
nearing bullish levels.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  8997
Current     :  9963

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10076
 50-dma: 10205
200-dma: 10228


S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  960
Current     : 1080

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1095
 50-dma: 1112
200-dma: 1107


Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1204
Current     : 1353

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1389
 50-dma: 1429
200-dma: 1446


-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 18.32 +2.11
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 18.09 +2.31
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 26.19 +1.14


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.86        611,312       525,243
Equity Only    0.70        462,895       321,930
OEX            0.72         32,743        23,625
QQQ            1.14         58,934        67,438


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          57.3    - 2     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    33.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   53.3    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       52.4    - 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       54.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.50
10-dma: 1.36
21-dma: 1.32
55-dma: 1.17


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     634       809
Decliners    2135      2192

New Highs      22        22
New Lows       82       158

Up Volume    194M      224M
Down Vol.   1457M     1296M

Total Vol.  1685M     1551M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/27/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials are turning a bit more bearish with a decrease in
long positions and a small increase in shorts.  Small traders
are naturally turning a bit more bullish with a decrease in
shorts.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/06/04      402,952   416,526   (13,574)   (1.7%)
07/13/04      407,166   416,869   ( 9,703)   (1.2%)
07/22/04      404,828   419,017   (14,189)   (1.7%)
07/27/04      397,354   422,914   (25,560)   (3.1%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/06/04      132,423    90,748    41,675    18.7%
07/13/04      133,935    95,787    38,148    16.6%
07/22/04      138,123    94,990    43,133    15.5%
07/27/04      135,136    90,433    44,703    19.8%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders have decreased their bearishness by
upping their long contacts by about 20K.  Small traders
are hedging their bets a bit by reducing their bullish
positions.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/06/04      287,442   423,583   (136,141)  (19.1%)
07/13/04      265,142   427,017   (161,875)  (23.4%)
07/22/04      309,972   428,240   (118,268)  (16.0%)
07/27/04      337,615   429,477   ( 91,862)  (12.0%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/06/04      219,321     58,567   160,754    57.8%
07/13/04      225,410     57,699   167,711    59.2%
07/22/04      212,078     62,416   149,662    54.5%
07/27/04      186,211     68,930   117,281    46.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders are still hovering around the same level
of cautious bullishness for the last three weeks.  Small
traders have moved from bearish to less bearish to neutral
in the last three weeks (thus a bullish progression in
sentiment).


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/06/04       42,245     37,343     4,902    6.2%
07/13/04       44,211     37,007     7,204    8.9%
07/22/04       45,069     37,975     7,094    8.5%
07/27/04       43,042     35,935     7,107    9.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/06/04        9,345    16,527    (7,182)  (27.8%)
07/13/04        7,847    15,243    (7,396)  (32.0%)
07/22/04        9,398    11,776    (2,378)  (11.2%)
07/27/04       14,543    14,518        25     0.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

The bullish sentiment from the commercial traders dipped
a tad this past week with an increase in their short positions.
Meanwhile small traders have significantly adjusted their
positions to be less bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/06/04       27,214    20,775    6,439      13.4%
07/13/04       27,773    20,573    7,200      14.9%
07/22/04       27,957    20,389    7,568      15.7%
07/27/04       27,577    21,427    6,150      12.5%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/06/04        5,969     8,227   (2,258)   (15.9%)
07/13/04        5,292     9,068   (3,776)   (26.3%)
07/22/04        4,857     7,297   (2,440)   (20.1%)
07/27/04        5,310     6,099   (  789)   ( 6.9%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Plenty of breakdowns.

First Marblehead - FMD - close: 39.24 change: -1.41

WHAT TO WATCH: The rally in this financial services stock is
fading and traders might feel the need to do some profit taking
if the broader indices keep falling.  Today's drop through round-
number support at the $40.00 mark and its simple 40-dma certainly
don't bode well.  Some traders may want to use the breakdown as
an entry point and target a drop to the $35.00 level near its
simple 100-dma.  Be careful and avoid FMD's August 12th earnings
report.




---

Cost Plus - CPWM - close: 30.41 change: -1.16

WHAT TO WATCH: CPWM came back from the brink today.  The stock
has been stuck in a trading range between $30 and $34 for the
last couple of months.  The company preannounced revenues at the
high end of their guidance today and shares went south on the
news.  Bulls bought the dip and CPWM rebounded back above the
$30.00 level but it couldn't save the MACD from producing a new
"sell" signal.  Looking at the long-term chart and you'll see how
important support at the $30.00 level is.  A breakdown could lead
to a drop toward $25-24.  We'd watch for a drop through today's
low ($29.70) and use it as an entry point for bearish positions.




---

Network Appliance - NTAP - close: 17.76 change: -0.70

WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding NTAP to the play
list tonight as a bearish play.  The recent bounce has faded and
its MACD is nearing a new "sell" signal.  Short-term technicals
are already bearish and Thursday's drop through the $18.00 mark
looks like an entry point.  The six-month trend of lower lows
suggests that traders could target a drop to the $16.00 level.
The P&F chart is more bearish with an $11 target.




---

Novellus - NVLS - close: 25.68 change: -0.45

WHAT TO WATCH: We're still watching this semiconductor stock for
a drop through significant psychological, round-number support at
$25.00.  The trend of lower highs suggest a breakdown is coming.
The P&F chart already shows a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal
with a $19.00 target. Watch for a drop through $25.00 and target
a drop to $20 but consider the comments in tonight's market wrap
and the possibility of a market bottom in the near future.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

TSO $22.65 -3.75 - Several of the high-flying oil-related stocks
have run into some serious profit taking.  TSO has broken its
rising channel and technical support at the 40, 50 and now the
100-dma's.  Volume has been very strong.  Watch for a drop to
$20.


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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
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newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
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Copyright ) 2003  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 08-05-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments:  FCS, RSAS, CCBl, CMTL, NATI, NXL, DLTR
Stock Splits:      ANSS, BGG, PGTV


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

FCS - tech stock long -
 We remain un-triggered in FCS.

---

RSAS - tech stock long -
 Be careful here.  The stock is suffering a bit
 with the market melt down today.  Technicals
 are starting to sour.

---

CCBL - tech stock short -
 Wow!  We're very impressed that CCBL
 held up so well today during the market's drop.
 Of course that's bad news for our short play.

---

CMTL - tech stock short -
 Lower the stop on CMTL from 20.35 to $20.01.

---

NATI - tech stock short -
 So far so good.  NATI closed near its lows and
 broke down under its simple 10 and 21-dma's.

---

NXL - non-tech long -
 Look for a bounce from the simple 200-dma or the
 $24.25 level.

---

DLTR - non-tech short -
 Shares of DLTR fell more than 8.5% to $24.55 after
 announcing that Q2 same-store sales slipped 0.2 percent.
 The company also guided lower under analysts' estimates
 for Q2 and Q3 revenues.  Volume on today's decline was
 almost four times the norm and suggest DLTR should see
 more weakness.  Remember that we're targeting a drop
 to the $22-20 range.  We're going to lower the stop from
 $27.75 to $27.01.


=================================================================
Stock Splits
=================================================================

Announcements
-------------

ANSS engineers a 2-for-1 stock split

This morning before the opening bell ANSYS Inc. (NASDAQ:ANSS)
announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock
split of its common shares.

The split will take the form of a stock dividend to be paid on
October 4th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of September 3rd.
Post-split ANSS will have approximately 31.0 million shares
outstanding.

About the company:
ANSYS, Inc., founded in 1970, develops and globally markets
engineering simulation software and technologies widely used by
engineers and designers across a broad spectrum of industries.
ANSYS focuses on the development of open and flexible solutions
that enable users to analyze designs directly on the desktop,
providing a common platform for fast, efficient and cost-
conscious product development, from design concept to final-stage
testing and validation. Headquartered in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania
U.S.A. with more than 25 strategic sales locations throughout the
world, ANSYS, Inc. employs approximately 550 people and
distributes its products through a network of channel partners in
40 countries. (Source: Company Press Release)

---

BGG announces a 2-for-1 stock split

One day before its earnings report Briggs & Stratton Corp
(NYSE:BGG) announced that its Board of Directors, at their
quarterly meeting, declared a 2-for-1 stock split.

The split is subject to shareholder approval at the company's
annual meeting on October 20th, 2004 wherein shareholders will
vote to increase the number of authorized shares from 60 million
to 120 million.  If approved the split will be paid to
shareholders on record as of October 29th.  No date was provided
for the actual distribution date.

BGG also increased their quarterly cash dividend to 34 cents a
share payable on October 1st, 2004 to shareholders on record as of
August 24th.

About the company:
Briggs & Stratton Corp. is the largest manufacturer of small, air-
cooled engines for outdoor lawn & garden power equipment,
generators and pressure washers. The company designs,
manufactures, markets and services these products for original
equipment manufacturers in over 100 countries on all seven
continents. (Source: Company Press Release)

---

PGTV beams down a 2-for-1 stock split

Just minutes before Thursday's opening bell Pegasus Communications
Corp (NASDAQ:PGTV) announced that its Board of Directors had
approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares.

The split will be paid as a dividend on August 26th, 2004 to
shareholders on record as of August 19th.

About the company:
Pegasus Communications Corporation is the ultimate parent company
of Pegasus Satellite Television, the largest independent
distributor of DIRECTV serving approximately 1.1 million
subscribers; Pegasus Broadcast Television, owner and/or operator
of nine television stations affiliated with CBS, FOX, UPN and the
WB Network; Pegasus Development Corporation, licensee of two Ka
satellite authorizations granted by the FCC and intellectual
property rights licensed from Personalized Media Communications
L.L.C; Pegasus Guard Band LLC, licensee of 700 MHZ spectrum
covering areas of the United States including approximately 180
million people; and Pegasus Rural Broadband LLC, which provides
wireless broadband Internet access in rural areas. (Source:
Company Press Release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

PDX     Pediatrix Medical          65.10     +0.95
PRX     Par Pharma                 38.70     +0.52
GVA     Granite Construction       20.46     +2.26
CUB     Cubic Corp                 22.52     +2.42
CVTI    Covenant Transport         18.85     +0.57

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

VRX     Valeant Pharmaceuticals    19.63     +1.58

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

IST     Ispat Intl Nv              23.76     +4.39
UVN     Univision Comm.            34.00     +4.28
KOSP    Kos Pharmaceuticals        34.61     +5.86
HANS    Hansen Natural             23.54     +2.45

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

TJX     TJX Companies              21.47     -1.36
VLO     Valero Energy              67.50     -4.83
SNN     Smith & Nephew             44.37     -5.41
SII     Smith Intl. Inc            54.88     -1.25
AZO     AutoZone                   72.25     -2.35
SUN     Sunoco Inc                 61.30     -3.85
WHR     Whirlpool                  59.74     -2.52
WTW     Weight Watchers            36.90     -1.72

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

MWV     Meadwestvaco               29.30     -0.37
UPL     Ultra Petroleum            41.10     -2.96
ESL     Esterline Technology       30.68     -0.30
SBR     Sabine Royalty             36.85     -1.50


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