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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 08/11/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 08-11-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:  Out of Steam
Watch List:   Biotech to Chips to Banks

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     08-11-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA     9938.32 -  6.35  9954.18  9841.36 1.71 bln   1114/1665
NASDAQ   1782.42 – 26.28  1786.65  1760.50 1.77 bln   1105/1901
S&P 100   526.54 -  2.23   528.77   522.39   Totals   2219/3566
S&P 500  1075.79 -  3.25  1079.04  1065.92
RUS 2000  526.63 -  3.20   529.83   517.89
DJ TRANS 3049.89 +  5.02  3074.94  3006.37
VIX        18.04 +  0.57    18.49    17.84
VXO        17.53 +  0.63    18.50    17.30
VXN        29.96 +  0.44    27.70    26.80
Total Volume 3,848M
Total UpVol    972M
Total DnVol  2,825M
52wk Highs      35
52wk Lows      433
TRIN          1.30
PUT/CALL      0.89
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Out of Steam
Linda Piazza

A post-Fed-decision rally carried the Nikkei and some other Asian
bourses to another day of gains, but then lost steam by the time
European markets opened. U.S. futures turned down with cash
markets following, but then the decline ran out of steam, too.

Bears could not follow through on early declines, and either
aggressive bulls or scared shorts pushed the indices higher
again.  By the day's end, the Dow had closed down only 6.35
points or 0.06 percent, and the SPX had closed down only 3.25
points or 0.30 percent.  Even the Russell 2000 managed to hold
onto all but 3.20 points, declining 0.60 percent.  The Nasdaq did
not fare so well, seeing a decline of 26.28 points or 1.45
percent.  Volume patterns showed decliners ahead of advancers on
both exchanges, with adv:dec ratios at 14:18 for the NYSE and
11:19 for the Nasdaq.  Down volume was 1.8 times up volume on the
NYSE and almost four times up volume on the Nasdaq.  Total volume
stood at 1.4 billion for the NYSE and 1.8 billion for the Nasdaq.

Cisco's (CSCO) building inventories as well as sales warnings
from National Semiconductor (NSM) and chip-related company
Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) proved at least partly responsible for
early weakness, sending U.S. futures lower immediately after the
close Tuesday.  Futures failed to build steam when the Nikkei
gained and then dropped with the European markets, predicting
weakness at the U.S. open.  By Wednesday morning, CSCO's Tuesday-
night earnings report had garnered analyst attention from Merrill
Lynch, UBS, Wachovia Securities and Goldman Sachs, with opinions
mixed among the analysts.  Merrill Lynch and UBS both downgraded
CSCO to a neutral rating, but the other two made positive
comments.

Within the first five minutes of trading, the SOX dropped below
the 50% retracement of its rally off the October 2002 low, also
breaking down from its descending regression channel, ominous
signs for those with hopes for a recovery in the sector.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX:



NSM and KLIC closed 14.14 and 25.07 percent lower, respectively,
with other stocks in the semiconductor food chain also getting
hit.  Cypress Semiconductor (CY) fell 6.56 percent, with its
decline attributed to NSM's.  CY wasn't helped by a Smith Barney
decision to cut its rating to a hold rating from its former buy
rating, either. Teradyne (TER) closed 7.59 percent lower, with
its tumble attributed both to KLIC and CSCO weakness.  CSFB cut
TER's rating to a neutral rating from its previous outperform
one.

Yesterday's attempt at a morning-star reversal signal on the SOX
was less convincing than the signals produced by some other
indices, raising a red flag that I mentioned Tuesday on OIN's
Market Monitor.  The SOX could not retrace more than 50 percent
of Friday's decline while most other indices producing morning-
star patterns retraced most or all of Friday's gains.

Wednesday morning, the SOX's relative weakness became apparent
when the SOX fell below recent lows and also dropped beneath the
50 percent retracement of the rally off the October 2002 low.
That retracement level usually provides strong support when first
tested even if it's eventually violated, but the SOX spent only
three days steadying at that level before tumbling through it.
That's an ominous sign unless it's quickly reversed, but
investors showed no temptation Wednesday to buy the dip.

The NWX, the Networking Index, showed the effect of the CSCO
report, reversing lower after printing a morning-star pattern of
its own.  CSCO closed lower by 10.55 percent.  Wednesday
continued the Pacific Crest Technology Forum that opened on
Monday, and began the CIBC Enterprise Software and Soundview
Semiconductor Conferences, but instead of the tech pop that used
to be produced by tech conferences, these and other tech-related
indices declined.

Other sectors or indices faring badly included the Disk Drive
Index and the XAU, the gold and silver index, down 1.80 percent.
Sectors closing higher included the airlines and defensive
sectors such as the pharmaceuticals and health care providers.
Surprisingly on a day when crude futures closed slightly higher,
so did the TRAN, up 0.16 percent.

Annotated Daily Chart of the TRAN:



That high-wave doji can be a reversal signal, too, but it's
always a visual representation of the indecision felt by market
participants.  Both bulls and bears ran out of steam on this
index today, as they did in other markets.  The story behind the
TRAN's high-wave doji proved an interesting one.

Each week, Wednesday's reports on crude oil, distillate, and
gasoline inventories assume more importance, but Wednesday, the
figures slipped by almost unnoticed.  Other crude-related
developments grabbed the attention.  Early in the morning, market
watchers learned that Russian oil producer Yukos was officially
in default on $1.6 billion in debt, having received a default
notice from a lender.  The president of Russia's federal energy
agency did nothing to reassure jittery markets when he stated
that Yukos' production could be halted if the company could not
pay for equipment and operations.  He further commented that such
an event would be detrimental to Russia's economic health, with
Russian energy officials asking that the company be allowed
access to frozen bank accounts.

Soon after or perhaps at about the same time, Saudi Arabia
revealed that it would have an important announcement about oil
production.  That announcement, when it came, included the
assurance that Saudi Arabia could immediately raise oil output by
1.3 million barrels per day, with the intention of curbing
prices.

Crude prices had plummeted at the time that Saudi Arabia stated
that it would make an announcement, with most market watchers
correctly assuming that Saudi Arabia would make an announcement
meant to calm worries and dampen crude prices.  Crude futures
dropped despite the almost-not-noticed Department of Energy
release of figures showing that crude stocks were down 4.3
million barrels from the previous week and an API release showing
that crude stocks were down 5.2 million barrels.  Analysts had
expected a rise in crude inventories, and the surprise decline
was not good news.  The Energy Department also announced that
distillate stocks were up 1.3 million barrels, and gasoline
stocks were down 1.8 million barrels.  API reported distillate
stocks higher by 3.1 million barrels, and gasoline stocks down by
2.4 million barrels.

The International Energy Agency, the IEA, also increased its
forecast for 2004's demand for crude by 700,000 barrels.  The IEA
also mentioned the less-than-desired capacity in infrastructure
and production, but felt that those lacks did not justify the
current crude prices, prices that were causing economic damage.
Borrowing a phrase from Greenspan, the IEA called the
$45.00/barrel price "irrational exuberance."  Later in the day,
others derided the IEA's statement about irrational exuberance,
claiming that the IEA routinely underestimated demand.  That
underestimation might even have led OPEC to cut production
earlier in the year, leading to the current pricing problems, one
commentator claimed.

Whether or not the IEA is right about the $45.00/barrel price
being too high, the forecasted increased demand, coupled with the
inventory surprise and Yukos news, might have sent crude prices
soaring, but the Saudi announcement undercut that reaction, at
least for a time.  Crude prices closed minimally higher than
Tuesday's close, but did not reach above Tuesday's intraday high.

Another report barely noticed except by those privy to Jim
Brown's comments in OIN's Market Monitor was the Job Opening
Labor Turnover Survey, released at 10:00.  Data included in that
survey showed that June's growth in employment was still showing
improvement, but improvement at a slower rate than previously.
Job openings fell, but more workers were hired than separated
from their jobs, which would include workers who were quit or
retired, or who were fired or laid off.

At 2:00, July's Monthly Budget Statement was released, with
June's having been a $54.2 billion deficit and July's showing a
whopping $69.2 billion deficit.  The year-to-date budget deficit
stands at $395.8 billion.  Expectations had been for a $66
billion figure for July.  Perhaps because the surprise was
attributed to greater outlays than expected and that was
attributed to calendar distortions, no ill effect occurred.  Many
markets began the late-afternoon climb immediately afterward
during the program-trading window.

That bounce helped improve the Nasdaq's outlook.  While the SOX
and NWX reversed just-produced morning-star reversal signals, the
Nasdaq bounced after breaking down intraday.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:



The Nasdaq has already broken below its descending regression
channel, gapping down as it did so.  It produced a not-so-classic
morning-star reversal signal, but as sometimes happens in down-
trending markets, the only reversal was the candle needed to
produce the reversal signal.  Wednesday, the Nasdaq opened near
the bottom of the recent range, broke below that range, but
tested the 38.2 percent retracement of the rally off the October
2002 low when it did so.  It bounced, closing back within that
range.

The SOX's example suggests that the Nasdaq could also eventually
break below this important retracement level, with the SOX
already below the 50 percent retracement, but if the SOX manages
a bounce to retest broken support, the Nasdaq could bounce, too.
If the trend is down, it's best to assume that it will remain
down, so the assumption now is that any bounce would roll over at
resistance, with that Nasdaq resistance now from 1806-1820, the
gap from Friday and the bottom of the former descending
regression channel.

If the Nasdaq's chart displays some ambiguity, so do the charts
of the SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:



Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:



Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000:



The OEX chart shows similar characteristics, forming a possible
"b" distribution pattern or basing pattern prior to a rise from
the bottom of its descending regression channel.

If the SOX still leads, it's leading these other indices to a
breakdown out of those descending regression channels.  However,
the TRAN's action, with that index valiantly clinging to its
descending regression channel support despite rising crude
prices, suggests that the TRAN may be trying to assume a
leadership role, too.  Both should be watched.

After hours, the SMH, KLIC, and CSCO all added a few cents to
their closing values, with futures climbing slightly, too, but
not enough to provide much encouragement to bulls.  Fox
Entertainment (FOX), News Corp (NWS), Cyberonics (CYBX), and Bob
Evans Farms (BOBE) were among companies reporting after the
close.  FOX climbed on a better-than-expected result, NWS was
flat, CYBX first posted a strong gain and then erased that gain
after reporting earnings in line with analysts' expectations but
ahead of its own, and BOBE tumbled after missing.  Higher costs
impact all kinds of companies, and BOBE mentioned rising hog
prices.

After last week's disastrous non-farm payrolls number, more
attention than ever may focus on the initial jobless claims
number at 8:30 tomorrow.  Last week's number indicated claims at
336 thousand.  Other 8:30 releases include July's Import Price
Index, with June's showing a drop of 0.2 percent, July's Advance
Retail Sales, with June's showing a drop of 1.1 percent and ex-
auto July Retail Sales, with June's showing a drop of 0.2
percent. I heard several commentators mention the retail sales
figures, with some commenting that various indicators of consumer
sentiment and spending patterns had been trending down lately.

Thursday, the CIBC Enterprise Software and Soundview
Semiconductor Conferences continue, but DELL's Thursday-after-
the-close earnings statement will also affect the performance of
techs both before and after the earnings release.  It would not
be surprising to see the SOX climb to retest broken support as
shorts rush to cover ahead of Dell's report, with that broken
support from 380-386.  For first indications that markets could
be strengthening enough for a countertrend bounce, watch to see
if the SOX and TRAN can both pick up steam to the upside or if
crude prices instead pick up steam, sending the others lower.

With the SPX, OEX, Dow, and Russell 2000, the task for those
seeking to gauge market direction proves easy:  watching for
either upside or downside breaks out of the possible "b"
distribution patterns, and remaining cautious about trading the
chop within them.  With a downtrend firmly in place, all bounces
should perhaps still be considered countertrend moves and sell-
the-rallies should remain the favored tactic.  Be ready to jump
out if proven wrong, however.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Biotech to Chips to Banks

Chattem - CHTT - close: 28.81 change: +1.06

WHAT TO WATCH: Here's a biotech stock that's bucking the market's
weakness today.  CHTT's 3.8% rally is a nice follow through to
the rebound from $27.00 and puts the stock back above its 10, 40
and 50-dma's.  Technicals are turning bullish and the MACD is
nearing a new "buy" signal.  There is still resistance at $30.00
but aggressive traders could target a move to $31.50.




---

ATI Technologies - ATYT - close: 13.85 change: -0.78

WHAT TO WATCH: ATYT paced the drop in the SOX semiconductor index
with a 5% drop of its own.  We strongly considered adding ATYT to
the play list as a short now that it has closed under support at
the $14.00 level.  We're just gun shy now that ATYT is down about
six weeks in a row and the SOX is extremely oversold and due for
a bounce.  More aggressive traders may want to consider shorts
anyway although take note that there appears to be some support
near the $13.50 region.  A move under $13.50 would produce a
triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on the P&F chart.




---

Alliance Gaming - AGI - close: 13.72 change: +0.03

WHAT TO WATCH: Bullish traders can take another look at AGI.  The
stock produced a huge bullish engulfing candlestick on Tuesday -
at the bottom of its downtrend.  Volume was very strong on the
reversal yesterday.  The move is a response to AGI's earnings
report where the company beat estimates by 4 cents.
Unfortunately, they guided lower and that suggests that the move
could have been temporary short-covering.  A number of analysts
reiterated their positive outlooks on the stock but we'd suggest
waiting for some follow through before considering positions.




---

New York Cmty Bank - NYB - close: 19.80 change: +0.30

WHAT TO WATCH: NYB appears to have put in a significant bottom
near the $18.00 region.  Now shares are slowly consolidating
higher.  NYB recently fought with and won a battle of resistance
with the simple 40-dma.  Now shares are above the 50-dma.  Bulls
might want to consider taking positions if NYB can breakout over
the $20.00 mark.  However, keep in mind that it would take a move
over $21.00 to reverse its P&F chart into a buy signal.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

AAPL $31.01 -0.51 - This continues to look like a bullish entry
point on AAPL but traders might feel more comfortable waiting for
a move over $33.00.

IST $27.28 -0.37 - This is the first sign of weakness in IST in
several days.

FBP $42.99 +0.47 - We've mentioned FBP before.  The stock is
consolidating higher and has broken the neckline of an inverse
head-and-shoulders pattern that points to a $49-50 target.
Unfortunately, FBP trades on very low volume.

TIWI $8.44 -0.34 - Bears are still driving TIWI lower and the
stock is approaching support near $8.00.


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

C       Citigroup                  44.35    +0.17
TOT     Total Sa (ADS)             96.77    -0.20
SC      Shell Transport & Trading  43.17    -0.95
WFC     Wells Fargo $ Co           57.57    +0.57
BAC     Bank of America Corp       85.53    +0.53
MRK     Merck & Co                 45.00    +0.35


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

MICC    Millicom Intl Cellular SA  15.44    -0.43
AGI     Alliance Gaming Corp       13.72    +0.03
SOL     Sola Internat Inc          17.83    +0.03
SNIC    Sonic Solutions            13.80    -0.52


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

BCS     Barclays Plc (ADR)         37.82    -0.39
DISH    Echostar Comm Corp         29.92    +0.37
EK      Eastman Kodak Co           28.21    -0.03
SAFC    Safeco Corp                48.20    +0.94
POT     Potassh Cp Saskatchewan   101.15    -1.02


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

HNP     Huaneng Power Intl Inc     27.88    -0.77
KMRT    Kmart Holding Corp         65.05    +0.65
RMK     Aramark Worldwide Corp B   23.50    -0.74
CEPH    Cephalon Inc               42.55    -0.45
MOGN    MGI Pharma Inc             23.28    +1.18


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

FE      Firstenergy Corp           39.24    +0.06

=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 08-11-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  RSAS, CMTL, NATI, DLTR, ENDP

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  New Bearish Plays:    SWIR


Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  New Bullish plays:    TS


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

RSAS - tech stock long -
 Heads up!  RSAS bounced from the
 simple and exponential 200-dma's as
 expected but we're still in danger of
 being stopped out.  We're not suggesting
 new positions yet.

---

CMTL - tech stock short -
 CMTL is down another 7 percent on Wednesday.
 Readers may want to consider taking profits now
 or be ready to exit when CMTL enters our profit
 target range of $16 to $15.

---

NATI - tech stock short -
 NATI came within 10 cents of our initial target of
 $25.00.  Readers may want to consider taking some
 money off the table now or preparing to exit as
 NATI looks vulnerable to more weakness tomorrow.
 We suggest taking profits on half a position when
 it hits $25.00 and tightening stops on the remainder
 as we target $24.00-23.00.

---

DLTR - non-tech short play -
 Be prepared to exit as DLTR nears our target in the
 $22-20.00 range.  Lower stop from $26.51 to $25.01

---

ENDP - high risk/reward short -
 Heads up!  ENDP bounced more than 3 percent on
 Wednesday after dipping to $15.78 on Tuesday.
 On Sunday we suggested readers may want to take
 profits on a drop to $16.00.  That may have been the
 prudent thing to do.  It's not too late to cover for a
 strong profit with ENDP down more than 12 percent from
 our entry point.


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------

  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Sierra Wireless - SWIR - close: 25.10 chg: -2.88 stop: 28.01

Company Description:
Sierra Wireless is a leader in delivering highly differentiated
wireless solutions that enable our customers to improve their
productivity and lifestyle. Sierra Wireless develops and markets
AirCard, the industry-leading wireless PC card line for portable
computers; embedded modules for OEM wireless applications; the MP
line of rugged vehicle-mounted connectivity solutions and Voq, a
line of professional phones with easy-to-use, secure software
solutions for mobile professionals
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Surprisingly, shares of SWIR fell sharply in July after posting a
strong earnings report.  The company even guided higher for the
third quarter but it wasn't enough to satisfy traders.  After the
late July oversold bounce shares of SWIR rolled over under the
$32.00 level.  Now the stock is breaking down under significant
technical support at the simple and exponential 200-dma's.  What
you may find interesting is SWIR's 10 percent drop today was
fueled by stronger than average volume on no news. The move
follows what looked like a bounce from support during the
previous two sessions.

Normally we don't like to chase a stock that's already fallen
more than 10 percent in one session.  Plus, we'd be happier if
SWIR had closed under the psychological round-number support at
the $25.00 mark.  However, looking at the trading action on an
intraday chart suggests SWIR is poised for more weakness.  We are
going to use a wide stop at $28.01 and this may be too much risk
for you but you need to give SWIR some room.  Conservative
traders might want to use $27.25.  More conservative traders may
also want to wait for SWIR to trade under today's low at $24.67
before initiating new positions.  We're going to initially target
a drop to the May lows near $21.25.  P&F chart readers will note
there is some support near $19.50 but the chart actually points
to a $13.00 target.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 11 at $25.10
Gain since picked:     - 0.00
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.5 million




==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Tootsie Roll - TR - close: 30.19 change: +0.73 stop: 28.98

Company Description:
Tootsie Roll Industries is one of the nation's leading candy
companies with nearly $400 million in net sales in 2003.
Headquartered in Chicago with operations in Massachusetts, New
York, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Mexico, the company produces more
than 60 million Tootsie Rolls per day and is the world's largest
lollipop supplier, producing 20 million pops per day. The Tootsie
Roll family of brands includes Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Roll Pops,
Caramel Apple Pops, Child's Play, Charms, Blow Pop, Blue Razz,
Cella's chocolate covered cherries, Mason Dots, Mason Crows,
Junior Mints, Charleston Chew, Sugar Daddy, Sugar Babies, Andes
and Fluffy Stuff cotton candy.
 (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
It's been a very tough three months for shares of TR.  The stock
peaked just under $38.00 and didn't stop falling until it found
support at the $29.00 level.  Now shares have built a base of
support there for the past 2 1/2 weeks.  The current rally from
$29.00 was punctuated by with a breakout over round-number,
psychological resistance at the $30.00 mark today and a breakout
over technical resistance at its simple 21-dma.  The move follows
an announcement from TR that the company will pay $217 million
for all the assets to Concord Confections, a Canadian-based gum
maker.

We believe this is a great oversold bounce play.  The $29.00
level appears to be a very strong bottom as it held during the
major indices recent breakdowns.  Furthermore, while the P&F
chart does show a high-pole reversal TR has not yet broken down
into a new sell signal.  The current bullish price target is
actually $61.  Right now we'd be happy with a rally back to
$32.50.  We'll start the play with a stop loss under support.
More conservative traders can look for some confirmation with a
move over $30.50.  Another word of caution - we're breaking our
own rule here about not trading stocks with less than 200K in
average volume.  Be careful as low volume stocks can see more
volatility.

Annotated Chart:




Picked on August 11 at $30.19
Gain since picked:     + 0.00
Earnings Date        07/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      57 thousand




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
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DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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Littleton, CO 80163

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