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Daily Newsletter, Thursday, 08/12/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 08-12-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:      Hewlett Packard Disappoints
Market Sentiment: Markets Slide Again
Watch List:       Software to Restaurants


=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      08-12-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA     9814.59 -123.70  9936.48  9808.54 1.71 bln  898/2308
NASDAQ   1752.49 - 29.90  1774.68  1751.95 1.63 bln  825/2220
S&P 100   519.56 -  6.98   526.54   519.47   Totals 1723/4528
S&P 500  1063.23 - 12.56  1075.79  1062.82
W5000   10293.52 -159.20 10416.62 10291.76
SOX       365.27 -  7.40   372.67   363.39
RUS 2000  517.10 -  9.53   526.63   517.07
DJ TRANS 2995.44 - 54.50  3050.03  2993.93
VIX        19.08 +  1.04    19.30    18.36
VXO (VIX-O)19.16 +  1.63    19.53    18.13
VXN        28.28 +  1.32    28.54    27.41
Total Volume 3,629M
Total UpVol    472M
Total DnVol  3,125M
Total Adv  1986
Total Dcl  5133
52wk Highs   34
52wk Lows   463
TRIN       2.54
NAZTRIN    1.63
PUT/CALL   1.06
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Hewlett Packard Disappoints
by Jim Brown

Disappoint is probably the wrong word for the HPQ earnings
this morning. Not only did the news knock -16% off HPQ
stock but knocked tech stocks back to August 2003 levels.
New lows are beginning to be the norm and the event risk
is only increasing as the month progresses.

Dow Chart – Daily


Nasdaq Chart – Daily


SPX Chart – Daily




The morning started calmly with Jobless Claims neutral
at a slightly lower 333,000 for the week and slightly
below consensus estimates. No news here but plenty of
other events to worry the market.

Import and Export prices rose +0.2% in July and erased
the June loss. Unfortunately the main component for the
rise was higher oil prices. The gain for the last year
stands at +5.5% but only +2.6% when you remove the oil
impact. This is good news for the economy because it
shows the recent soft patch took nearly all signs of
inflation out of prices. Import prices for consumer
goods ex-autos were unchanged for the second consecutive
month. This was good news for the market but the news
was still rising prices due to higher oil.

Retail Sales for July rose +0.7% and erased the -0.5%
decline in June. A strong jump in auto sales was the
main cause as dealers piled on the incentives to dump
excess inventory in front of the change in model years.
Remove auto sales and the headline number would have
only risen +0.2%. Consumers are still on hold without
a powerful incentive to part with their cash as in the
$5,000+ rebates on autos. The next report will show
any back to school rise but weekly reports have yet
to show any material gains.

Business Inventories rose +0.9% and well over consensus
estimates of +0.6%. This was the largest gain in more
than two years and the gains were accompanied by only
a minimal +0.1% jump in sales. The ramp in inventories
could help to boost the next GDP revision but overall
it is not a good sign when not accompanied by a rise
in sales. We have seen Cisco and Intel and various
other tech companies complain about rising inventory
levels as a result of slow sales and this is confirmation
on a much broader scale. It is time for consumers to
rush into the gap or recession fears will return to
the market. If inventories are rising because dealers
are experiencing a pickup in sales then this number
would be highly positive. Unfortunately it appears
the buildup was unintentional and could put the brakes
on manufacturers prematurely.

The FOMC minutes for June contained some bearish news
with several members openly concerned about the jump
in inflation. Several argued to remove the "measured
pace" phrase to allow them to hike rates faster as in
1994. This is very negative to market sentiment as it
shows the Fed is ready to aggressively hike and only
the June swoon in the economy kept them from moving
faster at the last meeting. The Fed, constantly looking
down from their ivory tower, continues to see strongly
bullish signs in the economy. This report was seen as
bearish with the dissention among the ranks as to the
pace of hikes.

The major event risk to the market is no longer the
Olympics but appears to have shifted to any remaining
tech earnings. HPQ surprised the markets this morning
with earnings a week before they were expected and
with a huge earnings miss. They also warned that the
tech weakness would continue through the current
quarter. Carly Fiorina said demand had dropped sharply
at the end of the quarter as the economy stumbled.
Earnings after items were only 24 cents and analysts
were expecting 31 cents. HPQ stock was pounded for a
-16% haircut and the tech ripples pushed many other
high profile tech stocks to new 52-week lows. Many
claim the problem was related to HPQ only. They saw
declines in enterprise servers and storage which is
exactly where IBM and Dell are showing gains. Still
the negative sentiment was indelibly etched on the
market consciousness at the open and it lasted all
day.

Even the news from IBM failed to rally techs. IBM
said they were hiring 18,800 new employees in 2004,
up +8,800 from their prior forecast. IBM is seeing
strength in its global services business and its
enterprise server division. This will bring IBM
employment back to highs not seen since 1991 when
they had 344,000 workers. In IBM's heyday in the
mid 1980s they employed over 400,000. The bad news
was only one third of the 18,800 new hires would be
in the U.S. The rest would be half in Asia and the
remainder dotted around the globe.

Dell also reported earnings tonight with results
inline with estimates at 31 cents per share. Dell
is showing growth in servers, storage and printing
and continuing to take market share. After the HPQ
news today we know where most of their share came
from. The company said demand improved on a global
basis with a +19% increase in shipments. Shipments
to Europe, Middle East and Africa rose +30%. Dell
saw a +44% increase in server shipments and a +60%
increase in storage products. What was unsaid was
the majority of Dell's growth was outside the U.S.
They did report gains in the U.S. but they were far
below the gains in the global market.

With those three major companies above you have the
good news and bad news about the current tech story.
Dell is a winner and met estimates with strong overseas
sales and lower component costs. IBM is adding nearly
13,000 workers to handle business outside the U.S.
and is seeing its biggest gains in its services
business. HPQ, stumbled and both IBM and DELL took
advantage of the situation. Did business improve to
the point that IBM and Dell profited from the gains
or did they just capture the share that HPQ lost?
It is not a zero sum game but with all three companies
running neck and neck it should diminish the overall
impact of Dell's report. The Dell CFO was the first
to say that they were continuing to gain market share
at a rapid pace.

Also tanking the market was another new high in the
price of oil. Oil soared to $45.75 and closed at
$45.45 as bad news for the sector continues to mount.
The Yukos saga continued with increasing fears that
they may have to cease production in as much as half
of their 1.7 million barrels per day due to a freeze
on their assets. The war heated up again in Iraq
with a raid against Al Sadar and fears of retaliation
with oil sabotage helped to spike prices. Twin storms
Bonnie and Charlie are shutting down production in
the gulf for two days this week as they churn across
the oil fields. The one piece of good news came from
Venezuela which said there would be no impact to oil
shipments from the coming election. Analysts had
feared a slowdown depending on the victor.

TrimTabs.com said today that $1 billion flowed out
of equity funds for the week ended Wednesday. My
initial thought was "is that all?" With the strong
downtrend in place I would have thought it would have
been higher but I forgot about the two day rally in
the middle. Money flow is like the wind, it changes
on a whim with the ebb and flow of market fortunes.

Those fortunes have been highly volatile recently
with Thursday's -123 point Dow drop the fourth triple
digit day in the last two weeks. Heck we have not
had that kind of volatility in ages. Welcome to
August and the start of the three most bearish months
of the year. With only two weeks behind us and a lot
of potential potholes ahead it could be a rough month.

The Dow closed at 9814 and only a little more than
a dozen points from a nine month low. 9800 is the
last support level before we risk a sharp drop to
9500 and a 38% retracement of the 2003 rally. That
may sound like a lot but considering the strength
and length of that rally, from the 7416 March low
to the 10753 February high the Dow rebounded +45%.
In perspective giving back a thousand points of
that +3300 point gain does not seem so drastic.

The Nasdaq has been the focus of the tech wreck and
the bloodshed does not appear to be over. The Nasdaq
closed at 1752 and a level not seen since last AUGUST.
Sound familiar? Even during the strong bull run in
2003 the Nasdaq dropped about -7% in the first two
weeks of August before charging higher. Without the
same economic dynamics in place today, warnings every
day and major event risk in our future the odds of
a similar rebound are slim. The Nasdaq has risk to
1600 which is major support. 1700 was my initial
target as the 50% retracement but we are already
very close to that level with a lot of bumpy road
ahead. The equivalent level on the SPX would be 965
and that seems light years away from today's 1063
close. I am not predicting it but just pointing out
the worst case scenario.

The SOX continues to be the weakest link with a
break below 385 support on Wednesday and a close
at 365 on Thursday. I am now targeting SOX 350 for
bargain hunters to appear.

SOX Chart – Daily



Our problem for the coming weeks is not specifically
the various high risk events but the constant earnings
warnings as the current cycle draws to a close and the
lack of any meaningful catalyst to push us higher.
Everyone knows that earnings are slowing and the
warnings serve to punctuate that fact on a daily
basis. Despite the slowing they are still strong
but that factor is lost on investors facing the "why
buy" question. Add in the potential for $50 oil before
the month is out and we could see even more warnings
from those companies that depend on oil for their
products. The economy continues to sputter and traders
can't decide if we are growing or recessing and the
Fed is determined to continue its rate hike scenario.
Now under this shaky set of market building blocks
place several firecrackers of event risk with fuses
already smoldering. The stage is set and the potential
for further, possibly significant, market events to the
downside far outweigh the upside potential over the
next three weeks.

We also have a market milestone coming next week when
Google prices its IPO. They said after the close today
that the auction would begin tomorrow and the IPO would
be priced next week. With the smoke swirling around the
deal this could send a very negative message to the
street should the IPO not find enough buyers to meet
the posted prices. With two thirds of investors polled
saying they would not touch the IPO and the majority
of those left saying they would buy only at a much lower
prices, GOOG may have a challenge ahead. If the auction
does go off successfully it will take $3 billion out of
the tech marketplace at a time when techs need all the
help they can get. Should be interesting.

As an investor I would not worry about any impending
future dips and use them as buying opportunities for
bargain stocks. Look for blue chips beaten down from
the last several months of selling and tech stocks with
rapidly increasing earnings. Look for lower lows over
the next three weeks and plan on entering in small
increments as your target prices are reached. You do
not have to be a trader to profit from a bear market.
You only have to be willing to buy good stocks in a
down market.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

Markets Slide Again
- J. Brown

Ouch!  The Stock Traders Almanac wasn't kidding when it said
August was the worst month of the year for the Dow Industrials.
It also stated that August is the second worst for the NASDAQ.
As Jim pointed out in the wrap tonight we're only half way
through the month and we still have the Olympics and the
Republican National Convention ahead of us.

The sell-off this week has been fueled by disappointing earnings
from tech heavy weights CSCO and HPQ but it has been exacerbated
by the record high prices in crude oil.  Fears that corporate
earnings may slow down faster than previous expected on top of
fears that the economy may be slowing added to fears that we
could see a terrorist event in Athens, New York or somewhere
where in the global oil supply all add up to a big reason why
investors are not eager to buy stocks right now.

Looking at some of the investor sentiment gauges we see the
VIX/VXO/VXN all gaining sharply and nearing their recent highs.
While it could be a sign that we're near a bottom veteran traders
know that there's nothing to stop these volatility indices from
skyrocketing higher.  Likewise the ARMS index's moving averages
are all nearing bullish reversal levels but that doesn't mean we
can't see them climb even higher.

Market internals were obviously negative today.  Declining stocks
outnumbered advancers 20-to-7 on the NYSE and 22-to-8 on the
NASDAQ.  Down volume was about 7-to-1 over up volume on the NYSE
and about 6-to-1 on the NASDAQ.  Looking across the various
sector indices I'm seeing a lot of new bearish breakdowns and new
lows.  Plus, those sectors that had weathered the recent weakness
with any strength are starting to roll over as well.

Overall the market and most of the stocks I looked at today look
terrible and when everything starts to look this bad it makes me
suspect that we could be in for a bounce soon but until then the
"trend is your friend".  Keep in mind that doesn't mean we should
be opening huge bearish positions but if that's all the market is
providing (bearish opportunities) then we can choose to sit out
or initiate small, speculative plays.

Something to take note of is the Stock Trader Almanac's
observation that the last week in August has been very bearish
for six out of the last seven years.  Yes, this is definitely a
tough spot to confidently buy stocks right now.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9208
Current     :  9814

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9985
 50-dma: 10133
200-dma: 10227



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  979
Current     : 1063

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1083
 50-dma: 1102
200-dma: 1108



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1220
Current     : 1304

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1352
 50-dma: 1406
200-dma: 1444



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 19.08 +1.04
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 19.12 +1.59
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 28.28 +1.32


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.06        658,641       695,880
Equity Only    0.98        506,274       495,092
OEX            0.72         42,035        30,373
QQQ            2.52         65,502       165,253


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          53.2    - 1     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    26.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   46.7    - 7     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       47.2    - 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       45.0    - 4     Bear Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.74
10-dma: 1.63
21-dma: 1.42
55-dma: 1.25


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers     749       803
Decliners    2050      2202

New Highs      29        13
New Lows       92       198

Up Volume    211M      235M
Down Vol.   1473M     1333M

Total Vol.  1700M     1578M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 07/27/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercial traders haven't made any big bets but the data
we're looking at doesn't reflect the big sell-off in the last
two days.  Small traders remain bullish as of this report.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/13/04      407,166   416,869   ( 9,703)   (1.2%)
07/22/04      404,828   419,017   (14,189)   (1.7%)
07/27/04      397,354   422,914   (25,560)   (3.1%)
08/03/04      401,619   419,429   (17,810)   (2.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04      133,935    95,787    38,148    16.6%
07/22/04      138,123    94,990    43,133    15.5%
07/27/04      135,136    90,433    44,703    19.8%
08/03/04      128,510    88,833    39,677    18.3%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Not much movement in the e-minis from commercial traders.  Small
traders have turned a bit more bullish, but again this is before
the big sell-off.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/13/04      265,142   427,017   (161,875)  (23.4%)
07/22/04      309,972   428,240   (118,268)  (16.0%)
07/27/04      337,615   429,477   ( 91,862)  (12.0%)
08/03/04      340,053   428,736   ( 88,683)  (11.5%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04      225,410     57,699   167,711    59.2%
07/22/04      212,078     62,416   149,662    54.5%
07/27/04      186,211     68,930   117,281    46.0%
08/03/04      195,105     68,717   126,388    47.9%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders have reversed their previous gain by
paring their longs and adding to their shorts.  Meanwhile
small traders have turned bearish again.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04       44,211     37,007     7,204    8.9%
07/22/04       45,069     37,975     7,094    8.5%
07/27/04       43,042     35,935     7,107    9.0%
08/03/04       42,771     36,863     5,908    7.4%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04        7,847    15,243    (7,396)  (32.0%)
07/22/04        9,398    11,776    (2,378)  (11.2%)
07/27/04       14,543    14,518        25     0.0%
08/03/04        8,995    13,901    (4,906)  (21.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercials seem to be taking some money off the table as
their bullish stances seems to waver a bit here.  Small traders
pared back their longs and their shorts but remained net
bearish.


Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/13/04       27,773    20,573    7,200      14.9%
07/22/04       27,957    20,389    7,568      15.7%
07/27/04       27,577    21,427    6,150      12.5%
08/03/04       30,118    25,029    5,089       9.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/13/04        5,292     9,068   (3,776)   (26.3%)
07/22/04        4,857     7,297   (2,440)   (20.1%)
07/27/04        5,310     6,099   (  789)   ( 6.9%)
08/03/04        4,325     5,212   (  887)   ( 9.3%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Software to Restaurants

Oracle - ORCL - close: 9.90 change: -0.29

WHAT TO WATCH: Software giant ORCL has broken down under long-
term, psychological, round-number support at the $10.00 level.
The move has also produced a new "sell" signal on its MACD
indicator.  Readers might want to use the drop as an entry point
to target ORCL's next level of support at $9.00.  The bearish P&F
chart actually points to a $4.00 target.




---

Dana Corp - DCN - close: 17.59 change: -0.36

WHAT TO WATCH: The trend of lower highs is about to blossom into
a major breakdown under support in the $17.50-17.00 range.  The
recent oversold bounce in DCN has quickly failed and the bearish
P&F chart points to a $12.00 target.  Readers can choose their
trigger depending on how much confirmation they'd like.  A quick
drop to its November lows near $14.75 is certainly a possibility.




---

Ruby Tuesday - RI - close: 26.23 change: -1.02

WHAT TO WATCH: Restaurant stock RI has fallen more than 3.7% to
break the neckline of its Head & Shoulders pattern.  This
technical pattern currently points to a $22-21 price target.
Readers could use a drop under $26.00 as an entry point to short
the stock.  The P&F chart, while still bullish, has produced a
high-pole warning.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

ABV $21.76 +0.75 - ABV has rallied right back to resistance at
the $22.00 level but managed to close over its simple 200-dma.

PWER $7.74 -0.24 - PWER has broken under support at $8.00 to hit
new one-year lows.  This could be an entry point for a drop
toward $6.50

SBUX $43.73 -0.87 - Starbucks is finally showing some weakness.
We would watch for a drop toward the simple 100-dma, which was
technical support back in May.


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DISCLAIMER
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                 Thursday 08-12-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

Stop Adjustments:  CCBL, CMTL, NATI, NXL, DLTR, OSI, ENDP
Closed Plays:      RSAS


Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

CCBL - tech stock short -
 CCBL continues to slip lower and today's close
 under the $7.00 level is a good sign for the bears.
 We're going to lower our stop to $7.61.  Remember,
 that our initial target is the $6.00 level.

---

CMTL - tech stock short -
 CMTL did manage a bounce today so we're going
 to lower our stop loss  from $18.75 to $18.25.  The
 $18.00 level should hold as overhead resistance.

---

NATI - tech stock short -
 NATI continues to drop and hit an intraday low of $24.70.
 Our initial target was the $25.00 level.  We suggest that
 readers consider taking some profits off the table here.
 We're going to keep the play open with a new target
 of $24.00.  Should NATI trade at or below $24.00 we will
 close the play.  We are also lowering our stop to $26.01.

---

NXL - non-tech long -
 Uh-oh!  Readers should double check their stops and/or
 plan to exit immediately.  NXL has dropped sharply on
 Thursday afternoon and closed under the simple 200-dma.
 Our stop loss is at $24.00 but this looks pretty bearish.

---

DLTR - non-tech short -
 DLTR has fallen another 2.45 percent toward the $23 level.
 Shares are quickly approaching our target range of $22-20.
 Readers should prepare to exit.  We're going to lower our
 stop loss to $24.75.

---

OSI - non-tech short -
 OSI fell sharply on Thursday with a 3.5 percent decline and
 a breakdown under the $39.00-38.50 level.  We have been
 TRIGGERED at $38.99.  The close under the $38.00 level is
 good news for the bears.  We're going to lower our stop loss
 to $40.01.

---

ENDP - high risk/reward short -
 ENDP has rolled over on Thursday with a 3.5 percent drop.
 We're going to lower our stop loss to $17.51.


=================================================================
Closed Plays
=================================================================

RSA Security - RSAS - close: 16.03 chg: -1.00 stop: 16.50

The market-wide sell-off on Thursday was very broad based and
tech stocks took the brunt of it again.  The GSO software index
slipped 1.94 percent but that didn't compare to the 5.8 percent
drop in RSAS.  We don't see any specific news to explain the drop
but volume was strong.  RSAS has now broken technical support at
the simple and exponential 200-dma's and has also broken support
on its P&F chart.  We have been stopped out at $16.50.

Picked on August 01 at $18.61
Gain since picked:     - 2.58
Earnings Date        07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     988 thousand




==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

AAUK    Anglo Amer. Plc (ADR)      22.13     +0.80
SKM     SK Telecom                 18.35     +0.65
CMA     Comerica                   59.10     +0.73
UB      Unionbancal                58.41     +1.16
ABV     Ambev                      21.75     +0.74
PNW     Pinnacle West              42.00     +0.56

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

CACC    Credit Acceptance          17.78     +3.71
MICU    Vicuron Pharma             12.63     +2.27
PCSA    Airgate PCS                15.34     +1.10

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

WGII    Wahsington Group           35.09     +2.88
BMHC    Building Materials         23.60     +1.55

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SAP     SAP Ag (ADS)               35.49     -1.59
GDW     Golden West Financial     100.82     -4.17
JWN     Nordstrom                  39.15     -1.70
TIF     Tiffany & Co               27.10     -4.70
WTW     Weight Watchers            34.48     -1.02
EAT     Brinker Intl               29.78     -1.82
IBOC    Intl Bancshares            35.05     -1.17
OSG     Overseas Shipholding       41.01     -3.16
NMGA    Neiman Marcus              50.30     -1.95

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

CUNO    CUNO Inc                   52.88     -1.76


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