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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 08/15/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-15-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Blame Game
Market Sentiment:  No Reason
Watch List:        Shoes to Networks and more!

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 8-13         WE 8-06         WE 7-30         WE 7-23
DOW     9825.35 + 10.02 9815.33 -324.38 10139.7 +177.49 -177.56
Nasdaq  1757.22 – 19.67 1776.89 -110.47  1887.4 + 38.27 - 34.06
S&P-100  520.72 -  1.11  521.83 - 15.84  537.67 +  7.29 -  5.52
S&P-500 1064.80 +  0.83 1063.97 - 37.75 1101.72 + 15.52 - 15.20
W5000  10304.66 -  3.18 10307.84-393.81 10701.7 +147.83 -178.04
SOX      366.65 – 20.23  386.88 - 29.55  416.43 + 10.85 -  4.88
RUT      517.39 -  2.26  519.65 - 31.64  551.29 + 12.07 - 16.26
TRAN    2966.92 +  0.84 2966.08 -145.61 3111.69 + 68.25 - 44.89
WE = week ending
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Blame Game
Linda Piazza

Jim is out of town through next week, attending a conference.

Dell's after-Thursday's-close earnings report was slated to be
the big news Friday, sending tech-related indices higher.  Pre-
market articles talked about the bounce that was to come, but the
day didn't unfold that way.

Instead, countries across the globe traded blame for
disappointing economic numbers reported Friday.  Commentators and
economists blamed lower U.S. consumer demand for discouraging GDP
numbers in Japan and the eurozone countries.  In the U.S.,
commentators blamed lower demand for goods exported to Japan and
the eurozone for the widening of the U.S. trade gap.  Those
economic releases revealed plenty of blame to parcel among the
various countries.  That blame settles on consumer demand in the
world's three largest economies, or more properly on the impact
of rising crude costs on consumer spending habits.

Japan's GDP number proved to be a shocker. GDP growth for the
second three months of this year surprised to the downside, at
0.4 percent falling far short of the forecasted 1 percent growth.
The annualized GDP rose by 1.7 percent, with some suggesting that
assessments for the Japanese economy's growth would require
adjustment. It was just Wednesday that the International Monetary
Fund raised its forecast for Japan's 2004 economic growth to 4.5
percent from the previous 3.4 percent.

Both private consumption and corporate capital expenditures
disappointed.  Corporate capital expenditures had been expected
to grow by 10 percent, but instead were flat.  The GDP deflator
indicated that Japan still suffers from "unwanted disinflation,"
as our FOMC members might have described it.  While some
economists disputed both the private consumption and corporate
capital expenditures numbers, they tanked the Nikkei, with that
index plunging lower by 270.87 points or 2.46 percent, to
10,757.20, its lowest close since May 18.

U.S. futures held up well while the Nikkei tanked.  Although they
stumbled slightly as the European Union released figures showing
the eurozone's GDP rising 0.4 percent against an expectation of a
0.5 percent rise, the U.S. futures still gave hope of a bounce.
The International Monetary Fund, the IMF, already estimates that
Europe's growth will be the lowest among the three largest
economies in the world, with Japan and the U.S. being the other
two.  In Germany in particular, stagnant consumer spending leads
the economy to depend on exports.

Clearly, consumer demand isn't rising as needed or expected. Last
month, the Commerce Department released figures showing slowing
consumer spending. In the eurozone as well as in the U.S.,
companies center hope on emerging markets, China, and Russia to
provide the needed growth in demand. After the release of the
eurozone's GDP and the resultant commentary, the FTSE 100, CAC
40, and DAX all headed lower, as did most eurozone bourses.

Still, after that slight stumble, U.S. futures regained their
footing and had attempted a couple of bounces by the release of
July's U.S. PPI and June's Trade Balance.  In June, the PPI
headline number had fallen 0.3 percent, but the ex-food-and-
energy number had risen 0.2 percent.  Expectations for July's
headline number had ranged from a decrease of 0.1 percent to a
rise of 0.2 percent, depending on the source, while expectations
for the ex-food-and-energy number had been for a rise of 0.1-0.2
percent, also depending on the source.  The released numbers
showed PPI rising 0.1 percent, with the ex-food-and-energy number
rising 0.1 percent, both numbers in line with expectations.
Dropping food costs offset rising energy costs, but companies
reported raising prices due to energy costs.  As quoted in one
article, an economics professor at Harvard raised the specter of
rising crude prices causing higher inflation coupled with slower
growth.

It was June's trade balance that started the blame game on the
U.S. side of the pond, though.  May's trade balance had measured
-$46 billion, with economists forecasting a $46-47 billion
shortfall for June.  Instead, the gap widened to a record $55.8
billion as the U.S. paid more for crude oil and other industrial
supplies and exported less.  The number revealed a widening trade
gap with Japan, Western Europe, Canada, and China, among other
countries.  Economists placed the blame for the biggest decline
in exports since September 2000 on lower demand from Japan and
the eurozone countries.

As happened with Japan's disappointing economic release, market
watchers began speculating that growth estimates for the U.S.
economy might need revision.  Some commented that the lower
estimate for June's trade gap had probably been folded into the
calculations for economic growth.

A dissection of the number revealed that inventories rose, a
comment that we've heard recently from reporting companies, too.
As Jim Brown commented in an earlier Market Wrap this week,
building inventories can be viewed in both a positive and a
negative light.  They can be a sign that sales have slumped,
making it difficult to move that inventory.  As Jim commented
earlier in the week, some information suggests that may be a
cause behind those building inventories, and the market treated
companies reporting building inventories as if that were the
case. They can also be a sign that companies expect growing
sales, too, as they look forward to a period of expected
expansion and are ramping up inventories to enable them to
fulfill orders.  In an effort to put the best spin on this
morning's widening trade balance, some commentators embraced the
latter interpretation today.  Those optimists also viewed rising
imports as a sign of increasing domestic demand rather than a
function of higher crude costs.

Despite the blows delivered by disappointing economic releases
across the globe, the Dow, TRAN, Nasdaq, S&P 500, OEX, and SOX
all opened in the green.  Early morning articles sported titles
such as "Stocks aim higher" and "Stocks bounce," featuring Dell's
likely positive effect on the markets.  Dell did perform
strongly, closing 4.19 percent higher, but its positive effect on
other than a few key sectors was dampened by the University of
Michigan Consumer Confidence number released soon after the open.
July's number had been 96.7, and expectations for August's
preliminary number had been for a rise to 97.00-97.50.  Instead
the sentiment index fell to 94.0.  The main culprit appeared to
be the component that measures future expectations.

Although the behaviors of the U.S. futures overnight and the cash
markets on the open had been those of steadiness in the face of a
number of adverse economic releases, the University of Michigan
report sent indices into their first declines of the day.  Some
had already seen their high of the day and would decline steadily
throughout the rest of the day.  The Dow Jones Transportation
Index proved to be one, with this oil-sensitive and economic-
recovery-sensitive index succumbing to dual pressures.  The TRAN
hit its 200-sma, bouncing minimally from that average into the
close and erasing all of this week's 110-point gain.  Producing
two reversal signals within one week, the TRAN made a round trip
back to that average from Friday to Friday.

Although the Dow's sister index held up well while crude prices
rose this week, Friday it returned to its typical trading pattern
of late, trading in direct opposition to the movement of crude
futures.

Annotated Five-Minute Charts of the TRAN and Crude Futures:



The TRAN appears poised to bounce from its 200-sma or tank
beneath it next week.  If the inverse relationship to the
movement of crude futures is to continue next week, making a
prediction proves particularly difficult.  This weekend includes
a close recall election in Venezuela, with violence possibly
escalating if the incumbent wins.  A historical basis for such a
concern exists, since output was trimmed during the last upheaval
involving President Chavez.  In addition, a BP plant in Indiana
suffered a fire that cut output; Russia's Yukos may be put on the
bidding block with uncertainty over whether the successful bidder
could meet the company's previous output, and worries about
developments in Iraq persist.  Hurricane Charley's threat to oil
and gas production had reportedly lessened at the time this
report was prepared, but traders pumped the crude futures with
event premium in case one or all of the threats to production
materialize.

If a truce is managed with Shiite militants in Iraq, other
terrorists vow to leave Iraq's pipelines alone, Venezuelan
elections proceed peacefully, and the markets find assurance that
Yukos can keep up production, some of that premium may seep out,
deflating crude prices.  Such a deflation might allow indices to
bounce, at least for a few days, but if crude prices continue
higher, pressures on equities could escalate.  Those believing
that $40.00/barrel prices were temporary and the pressures on the
economy transitory might be shocked out of that belief if crude
hits $50.00/barrel.  A CNBC Europe commentator mentioned a couple
of weeks ago that crude prices would likely reach $47.50 in the
short term and $57.00 ultimately, a claim that seemed unlikely at
the time.  He may be right about that $47.50 price, at least.
Crude futures came within a point of that figure on Friday.

It all sounds like doom and gloom, doesn't it?  It wasn't.
Across the U.S. markets, advancing issues and up volume proved
stronger than declining issues and down volume.  Adv:dec ratios
stood at 19:13 for the NYSE and 15:15 for the Nasdaq.  Total
volume was a light 1.2 billion for the NYSE and 1.3 billion for
the Nasdaq.  The Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, OEX, SOX, and Russell 2000
all ended the day flat or slightly higher.  Only the transports,
insurance sector, pharmaceuticals and biotechs declined
significantly.  Homebuilders, the XAU, the HMO, and some
computer-related indices performed strongly, as did the oil
services and natural gas sectors.  This article could have been
titled "The Bounce that Almost Happened."

Nevertheless, many indices teetered on the edge of a more severe
drop Friday, including the S&P 500.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:



The SPX's daily chart presents a clear picture of an index poised
to bounce from bottom support on its descending regression
channel or to fall from that channel.  The SPX broke minimally
below the bottom support of its possible "b" distribution pattern
Friday, but was caught by 1060.  The bounce did not prove
convincing ahead of the weekend's uncertainty.

The big-cap OEX has broken below the bottom support of its "b"
distribution pattern and spent Friday trying to climb back inside
the bulb of the "b," without success.  The OEX did find support
near 520, but closed just below the 520.80 figure that has proven
to be support/resistance in the past.  Markets appear to have
long memories.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000:



Like the SPX, the Russell 2000's daily MACD remains in full
bearish mode.  Stochastics have long been trending in levels
depicting oversold conditions, a state that often accompanies
steep declines.  Stochastics produced another bearish kiss.
Note, however, the equal lows on the RSI as the Russell 2000 hit
first the July low and then headed down to a lower low in August.
That's bullish divergence if it continues.  Note also that RSI
currently measures a higher level than at the August 9 low.  RSI
often serves as a leading indicator, but it's a fickle indicator,
too.  It should warn those in bearish positions to make plans to
protect profits, something that should have been done anyway as
indices approached key support levels, but it does not yet
promise a bounce.  Let RSI warn you and price action guide you.

The Nasdaq also balances on a key level.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:



Wednesday, I pointed out the approach of the 38.2 percent
retracement level drawn on the Nasdaq's daily chart, and the
Nasdaq did spend the rest of the week balancing on that line,
reinforcing its importance.  Despite Dell's influence, the Nasdaq
was not able to mount a bounce, instead producing an inside-day
candle.  If the Nasdaq does bounce early next week, first
resistance should be expected at 1800 and the gap level from
August 6. If the Nasdaq drops, round-number support should
perhaps be expected near 1750, and slight support appears to
exist near 1748 and again near 1740, but stronger support lies
nearer 1690-1700.

The Dow's chart shows some of the same characteristics seen on
other daily charts.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:



The Dow's chart (using the DJX as a proxy to obtain all the daily
candles sometimes omitted on my daily chart) shows the new
bearish stochastics kiss, the full bearish mode of the MACD, and
the potential bullish price/RSI divergence.

One commentator on the crude markets commented that crude could
be $50 Monday or could be $40.00, depending on weekend
developments.  Those weekend developments and crude's resultant
price could drive our markets, too.  It appears difficult to
imagine that indices could make strong advances if crude prices
do not drop significantly, but Monday begins option expiration
week, with all the attendant inexplicable market movements.

As Jim Brown has mentioned in previous articles this week, the
good news is that volatility has returned to the markets.
Although all of us at OIN care about the health of our economy
and so would prefer seeing markets move higher, we options
traders can benefit from movement any direction as long as
there's movement.

We're in a good place for a bounce, but we're also in a good
place for a rollover down to a new leg down, a great opportunity
to profit from options plays.  Until we get past some of the
event risk, including the upcoming Olympics and perhaps even the
upcoming elections, and have evidence that the prevailing
downtrend has reversed, selling rallies remains the preferred
tactic, so at least part of next week could be spent sitting out
while markets bounce up to test resistance.  If a bounce begins,
many indices will be trading up through the bulb of a possible
"b" distribution pattern, a pattern that is deemed bearish until
proven otherwise.  That bulb portion may produce choppy trading
conditions.  In addition, another factor may work against the
aggressive trader willing to risk a countertrend play up through
a likely choppy zone:  options expiration week.  Unfortunately,
although once a bounce has begun, pent-up pressure may send
indices high enough to profit in a bullish play, it's not yet a
play I can recommend for any but the most adept scalpers who
don't need advice anyway.

Crude prices should be watched carefully Monday morning for signs
that some of that event premium is evaporating or that crude
prices instead are building.  Watch crude's effect on the TRAN,
with the TRAN so near the 200-sma that it should be easy to say
"bounce" or "drop."  Other indices' positions near key levels
also offer that ability, although Friday's trading proved that
even apparent breakdowns could whipsaw those entering bearish
trades.  Be prepared to be whipsawed if entering directional
plays.

Another index might offer guidance as to whether a bounce could
begin.  Although many indices produced doji or near-doji Friday,
only one among the ones charted here produced that doji at the
bottom of a steep decline.  The others produced doji at the
bottom of consolidation zones, not producing as strong a
possibility of those doji being reversal signals.  The SOX,
however, produced its doji at the bottom of a steep decline.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX:



Although a classic morning-star reversal signal requires a tall
red candle before the doji, we might give the SOX the benefit of
the doubt, as indices sometimes don't produce as classic
candlestick patterns as individual stocks might.  Those hoping
for a bounce want to see the SOX open Monday at or above its
Friday close, and then produce a strong white candle.  The mauve
horizontal line on the chart represents the 50 percent
retracement of the rally off the October 2002 low, an important
Fibonacci retracement level the SOX violated this week.  Those
hoping for a bounce want to see the SOX close above that mauve
line and above the bottom of the former descending regression
channel.  Otherwise the bounce remains suspect.  Those hoping for
a Nasdaq recovery also want to see the biotechs bounce, too.

Companies reporting Monday include Lowe's Companies (LOW), Sysco
Corporation (SYY), and Tandy Brands (TBAC), and possibly KMart
(KMRT), although I'm finding conflicting information about its
reporting date.  Each of those offers a measure of consumer
spending.  They might be closely watched.

Next week's economic releases number fewer than this week's, with
Tuesday being a heavy-weight day with regard to those releases.
Monday starts out slowly, with only the NY Empire State Index at
8:30 and the August NAHB Housing Market Index at 1:00.  Tuesday's
8:30 releases include Building Permits, Housing Starts, Capacity
Utilization, and Industrial Production, and Tuesday also includes
chain store sales, Redbook Retail Sales, and the ABC/Money
Consumer Confidence.  Wednesday has become a volatile day as the
Department of Energy and API release their disparate figures for
crude, distillate and gasoline inventories, and Wednesday has
also long been known as a possible trend-reversal day.  Thursday
rounds up the week's releases, with initial claims, natural gas
inventories, leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed's
release.

Have a safe weekend.  Our thoughts and prayers go out to all
subscribers who live in areas affected by Hurricane Charley or
who have loved ones who live in those areas.


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

No Reason
- J. Brown

The markets have suffered over the last few weeks because
investors have no reason to buy stocks right now.  The Q2
earnings season is essentially over and Wall Street is facing new
concerns that corporate profits may slide faster than previously
expected if the economy truly is slowing.  Traders are also
worried about rising geo-political tensions as the world listens
to reports of fierce fighting in Najaf (in Iraq), violence in
Palestine and news that Iran may have new missile capable of
hitting Europe and U.S. bases.

The threat of a terrorist event in Athens during the Olympics or
somewhere else in the world targeting the global oil supply
doesn't inspire confidence.  Traders saw crude prices close at
new all-time highs above $46 a barrel as they worried about the
outcome of elections in Venezuela, one of the world's largest
exporters, and the ongoing drama with Russian oil giant Yukos.
Here at home there were reports of a fire at an Indiana oil
refinery while down in Florida tropical storm Bonnie and
hurricane Charley forced evacuations from oil rigs and hampered
production along the coast.

The economic data on Friday was less than inspiring as well.  The
June trade gap hit a new high at $55.82 billion.  This suggests
that the final Q2 GDP numbers could be revised lower. Meanwhile
latest University of Michigan consumer confidence number slipped
to 94 while economists were looking for a rise to 97.5.  If
consumer confidence is sagging then that could weigh heavily on
the retailers and GDP since consumer spending represents more
than two-thirds of our economy.  Look for a number of retailers
to report Q2 earnings this week.

I seem to read or hear more and more stock and market analysts
reaching the same conclusion Jim did a couple of weeks ago.
There really is no catalyst to spark a market rally/turnaround
until after Labor Day.  Yes, we might see another oversold bounce
but at best we'll probably trade sideways for the next 2 1/2
weeks and at worse we'll resume hitting new lows.

Looking ahead to this week we have economic data coming out on
Tuesday and Thursday.  Most of it is second tier data but Wall
Street will be watching the July CPI, the housing starts and the
industrial production/capacity numbers which all come out on
Tuesday.  Thursday brings the Philly Fed index numbers.  Of
course next week will also host the bulk of the Olympics in
Athens, which began Saturday.  While there is not an easily
quantifiable affect on the markets it does create an undercurrent
of caution.  The high number of people throughout this event
causes a logistical nightmare despite of an impressive amount of
security.

On Thursday I mentioned the Stock Trader Almanac's factoid that
the last week of August has historically been very bearish for
six out of the last seven years.  It is certainly something to
consider when planning your trades and reinforces the issue that
investors have no reason to buy stocks now when they can probably
by them cheaper in September.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     :  9825

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma:  9986
 50-dma: 10133
200-dma: 10238



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  983
Current     : 1064

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1079
 50-dma: 1101
200-dma: 1108



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1246
Current     : 1307

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1343
 50-dma: 1402
200-dma: 1444



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 17.98 –1.10
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 18.77 –0.39
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 27.46 –0.82


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.02        575,679       585,383
Equity Only    0.75        418,869       314,266
OEX            1.03         35,052        35,952
QQQ            0.62         28,162        17,391


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          52.9    + 0     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    25.0    - 1     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   46.7    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       46.8    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       45.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.32
10-dma: 1.63
21-dma: 1.39
55-dma: 1.26


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1526      1478
Decliners    1224      1492

New Highs      38        15
New Lows      108       126

Up Volume    732M      724M
Down Vol.    650M      570M

Total Vol.  1404M     1322M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/10/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

There has been almost no change in the commercial traders'
positions for the large S&P 500 futures contracts.  They remain
marginally bearish.  Meanwhile small traders have upped their
bets in both longs and shorts but remain net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/22/04      404,828   419,017   (14,189)   (1.7%)
07/27/04      397,354   422,914   (25,560)   (3.1%)
08/03/04      401,619   419,429   (17,810)   (2.2%)
08/10/04      397,576   419,734   (22,158)   (2.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/04      138,123    94,990    43,133    15.5%
07/27/04      135,136    90,433    44,703    19.8%
08/03/04      128,510    88,833    39,677    18.3%
08/10/04      135,689    93,897    41,792    18.2%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders have upped their stakes in both their
long and short positions but the net results was a small decrease
in bearishness.  Small traders pared back their longs and added
to their shorts to decrease their bullish stance some but they
remain net bullish (albeit the least bullish in a month).

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
07/22/04      309,972   428,240   (118,268)  (16.0%)
07/27/04      337,615   429,477   ( 91,862)  (12.0%)
08/03/04      340,053   428,736   ( 88,683)  (11.5%)
08/10/04      369,547   441,055   ( 71,508)  ( 8.8%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/04      212,078     62,416   149,662    54.5%
07/27/04      186,211     68,930   117,281    46.0%
08/03/04      195,105     68,717   126,388    47.9%
08/10/04      179,940     89,239    90,701    33.7%


Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

There was very little movement from the commercial traders.
They did add positions on both sides but the result was a
small move closer to neutral.  Small traders are really
undecided and a very close to a dead heat.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/04       45,069     37,975     7,094    8.5%
07/27/04       43,042     35,935     7,107    9.0%
08/03/04       42,771     36,863     5,908    7.4%
08/10/04       43,968     38,351     5,617    6.8%


Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/04        9,398    11,776    (2,378)  (11.2%)
07/27/04       14,543    14,518        25     0.0%
08/03/04        8,995    13,901    (4,906)  (21.4%)
08/10/04       10,081    10,858    (  777)  ( 3.7%)


Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders reduced their short positions but a few
thousand which increased their bullish stature.  Small traders
naturally moved the opposite direction and increased their
shorts to boost their bearish outlook.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
07/22/04       27,957    20,389    7,568      15.7%
07/27/04       27,577    21,427    6,150      12.5%
08/03/04       30,118    25,029    5,089       9.2%
08/10/04       30,634    22,994    7,640      14.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
07/22/04        4,857     7,297   (2,440)   (20.1%)
07/27/04        5,310     6,099   (  789)   ( 6.9%)
08/03/04        4,325     5,212   (  887)   ( 9.3%)
08/10/04        6,450     8,488   (2,038)   (13.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

-----------------------------------------------------------------

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Shoes to Networks and more!

Foot Locker - FL - close: 20.07 change: -0.20

WHAT TO WATCH: We came very close to adding FL to the play list
this weekend as a short.  The stock has been consolidating lower
with a trend of lower highs.  This trend has been fighting with
support at the $20.00 level and FL looks ready to breakdown below
it.  Its P&F chart is already in a bearish sell signal with a $14
target.  Unfortunately, FL is due to report earnings this week
but we're unsure of the date.  Look for their report between
August 18th and the 23rd.




---

Cost Plus - CPWM - close: 29.66 change: -0.08

WHAT TO WATCH: Oh, we came so close to adding CPWM to the play
list as a short this weekend.  The stock seems to be coiling for
a breakdown under the $29.50 level, which should lead to a drop
toward $25.00.  We hesitated not because the P&F price target is
$29.00 but because CPWM is due to report earnings before the bell
on Thursday, August 19th and we don't like to hold over an
earnings report.  More aggressive traders may want to keep an eye
on this one.




---

F5 Networks - FFIV - close: 21.78 change: -0.66

WHAT TO WATCH: Networking stocks have not performed very well
after CSCO disappointed Wall Street.  FFIV has fallen back to
support near $22.00-21.50.  Longer-term FFIV appears to be in a
six-month descending channel.  The bottom of the channel is
currently near $17-$16. Readers can watch for a drop under the
$21.00 level to produce a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal
on its P&F chart.




---

AT&T - T - close: 13.70 change: -0.18

WHAT TO WATCH: AT&T has been on our watch list before.  We've
been waiting for a drop under support in the $14.00-13.75 range.
Well now it's happened.  Short-term technicals are bearish and
its MACD is in a "sell" signal.  Unfortunately, the bearish P&F
chart only points to a $13 target.  That doesn't mean the target
can't be exceeded but it's a warning sign.  AT&T's 2003 lows are
near $13.50.  Readers can watch for these lows to be broken
before considering bearish positions.  We would target the $10
mark.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

DCN $17.27 -0.32 - DCN still looks like a bearish candidate.
Look for a drop under $17.00.

HRL $27.57 -0.28 - Hormel looks like a bearish candidate with the
drop under its 200-dma and the $28 level.

ERES $18.64 -2.09 - The 10% drop in ERES follows a failed rally
at the simple 200-dma.  Next stop should be $17.50 but bears can
probably target $15.

GMST $4.77 -0.12 - GMST appears to be channeling between $4.00
and $5.00.  It just failed at the $5.00 mark.


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-15-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  Bearish Play Updates:  CCBL, CMTL, NATI, SWIR


Active Trader (Non-tech)
  Bearish Play Updates:  DLTR, OSI
  Closed Bullish Plays:  NXL, TR


High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays:     AMR, CTMI
  Bearish Play Updates:  ENDP


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

C-COR.net - CCBL - close: 6.82 chg: -0.19 stop: 7.61

The weakness in CCBL continues and we're right on target thus
far.  Shares have slipped more than 14 percent since we were
triggered on the breakdown under support at $8.00.  At the
current rate of decline CCBL should hit our target at $6.00 by
the end of August for a 24.5 percent decline.  We're not
suggesting new positions at this time but aggressive traders
might consider a failed rally under $7.15 as a potential entry
point.   More conservative traders may want to tighten their stop
s a bit.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on July 23 at $ 7.95
Gain since picked:   - 1.13
Earnings Date      08/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    621 thousand



---

Comtech Telcom - CMTL - close: 17.01 change: +0.10 stop: 18.25

Did you take it?  Last Sunday we suggested a failed rally under
$18.00 as a potential entry point.  That's exactly what CMTL
provided earlier this past week.  The stock is trying to bounce
again but we don't expect it to get very far.  The $18.00 level
should continue to be resistance.  However, it never hurts to
take a profit.  CMTL is down more than 11 percent from our entry
point.  Some traders may feel more comfortable closing part of
their position.  We will continue to target the $16-15 range.
More conservative traders may want to lower their stop closer to
$18.

Annotated chart:



Picked on July 21 at $19.20
Gain since picked:   - 2.19
Earnings Date      06/08/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   400 thousand



---

Natl. Instrument - NATI - cls: 24.72 chg: -0.30 stop: 25.51*new*

Perfect!  NATI continues to fall after hitting our initial target
at $25.00.  The bearish engulfing candlestick on Friday suggest
that NATI could hit our secondary target at $24.00 sooner than we
expected.  We are not suggesting new bearish plays at this time,
especially with NATI so close to our next target.  Readers should
be preparing to exit now that NATI has declined more than 11
percent from our entry point.  We are going to lower our stop
loss to $25.51. We're also going to set an official exit point at
$24.00 and if NATI trades there on an intraday basis we'll close
the play.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 04 at $27.83
Gain since picked:     - 3.11
Earnings Date        07/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     309 thousand



---

Sierra Wireless - SWIR - close: 23.80 chg: -0.77 stop: 27.40*new*

SWIR was a new short play added this past week and it's off to a
good start down 5 percent and under potential round-number
support at the $25.00 mark.  Volume has been pretty strong on the
declines and that's good news for the bears.  Our initial target
is the May lows near $21.25.  More aggressive traders might want
to target the $20.00 level or P&F support near $19.50.  We're
going to lower our stop loss to $27.40.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 11 at $25.10
Gain since picked:     - 1.30
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.5 million




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Dollar Tree - DLTR - close: 22.46 chg: -0.58 stop: 23.71*new*

The decline in DLTR is picking up speed.  Volume was way above
average on Friday's 2.5 percent drop.  The stock is nearing our
target range of $22.00-20.00 and readers can prepared to exit for
a profit.  Actually some readers may want to take some money off
the table now that DLTR is down more than 13 percent from our
entry point.  This close to our target we are not suggesting new
bearish positions.  We are going to significantly tighten our
stop loss to $23.71.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on July 26 at $25.95
Gain since picked:   - 3.49
Earnings Date      08/25/04 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   1.5 million



--

Outback Steakhouse - OSI - close: 37.61 chg: -0.36 stop: 40.01

OSI is turning in a great performance for the bears.  Shares hit
our TRIGGER at $38.99 on Monday.  Tuesday saw an oversold rebound
back toward $40.00 but the rally failed.  Thursday's performance
sent OSI to new nine-month lows.  The stock should continue to
fall toward our target at $34.00.  It's not too late to consider
bearish positions at current levels.  More patient traders can
wait to see if OSI offers another failed rally attempt under
$38.50.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 09th at $38.99
Gain since picked:       - 1.38
Earnings Date          07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:       629 thousand




============
CLOSED PLAYS
============


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

New Plan Excel Realty - NXL - close: 24.33 chg: -0.01 stop: 24.00

We are not seeing any follow through in our bullish plays.  NXL
has gone from coiling tightly for a bullish breakout over $25.00
to falling under and closing under its simple 200-dma.  While the
stock could still bounce from the $24.00 region we don't want to
take the risk.  Right now we'd rather cut our losses and keep
them to a minimum.  Readers may want to reconsider bullish
positions if NXL trades back above $25.00 again.

Picked on August 04 at $25.06
Gain since picked:     - 0.73
Earnings Date        07/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     395 thousand



---

Tootsie Roll - TR - close: 29.60 change: -0.26 stop: 28.98

Call us chicken if you want to but the lack of follow through on
TR's bullish breakout on Wednesday is discouraging.  Given the
current market environment we're trying to keep our losses to a
minimum on our bullish plays.  More aggressive traders can keep
the play open and/or look for a bounce from support at the $29.00
level.  We'll reconsider bullish positions if TR can trade over
$30.50.

Picked on August 11 at $30.19
Gain since picked:     - 0.59
Earnings Date        07/29/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:      57 thousand




==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

AMR Corp - AMR - close: 7.42 change: -0.36 stop: 8.01

Company Description:
American Airlines is the world's largest carrier. American,
American Eagle and the AmericanConnection. regional carriers
serve more than 250 cities in 40 countries and territories with
approximately 4,200 daily flights. The combined network fleet
numbers more than 1,000 aircraft.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We usually hesitate to short stocks in the single digits but the
trend in the airlines doesn't show any signs of improving.  Most
of the major carriers are at or near one-year lows and heading
for their 2003 lows.  Fears that Delta Airlines (DAL) may have to
file for bankruptcy could be weighing on investors minds.  If it
happens to DAL who knows which airline is next. The optimist out
there would point out that AMR might garner more business if DAL
goes through Chapter 11 and has to sell off routes but no one
seems interested in buying airline stocks right now.  Obviously
the immediate concern is skyrocketing oil prices, which creates a
huge cash drain on airlines due to fuel costs.  A secondary
concern is the rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming
Republican National Convention and the November elections, which
are both terrorist targets.

Bears will note how the oversold bounce in AMR has failed at the
$8.00 level.  Technicals are mixed.  With AMR extremely oversold
almost any bounce produces an uptick in the oscillators so
they're tough to trust at these levels.  The bearish P&F chart
points to a $3.00 target. Meanwhile investors could be worried
that AMR is headed for its 2003 lows near $1.25 a share.  We're
going to target a drop to $5.00 and start the play with a stop
loss at $8.01.  This is a highly speculative play.  Only play
with risk capital and double check with your broker any rules on
shorting stocks under $10.00.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 15 at $ 7.42
Gain since picked:     - 0.00
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     5.2 million



---

CTI Molecular Imaging - CTMI - cls: 9.67 chg: -0.25 stop: 11.01

Company Description:
CTI Molecular Imaging, Inc. is a leading supplier of products and
services for positron emission tomography (PET), a diagnostic
imaging technology used in the detection and treatment of cancer,
neurological disorders and cardiac disease.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like CTMI mainly for its bearish technical picture.  Investors
ignored the recent earnings report, which was above expectations.
Actually ignore may be the wrong word.  A sell-the-news- reaction
could be applied since CTMI has traded lower almost every day
since.  The breakdown under pivotal round-number psychological
support at the $10.00 mark is bad news for the bulls.  Short-term
technicals are all negative and its MACD is about to produce a
new "sell" signal.  Its bearish P&F chart only points to a $10
target and since CTMI has already surpassed it we have placed
this in the high risk/reward category.  This appears to be
uncharted waters for CTMI so there's no historical basis for
where CTMI might find support.  We're going to start the play
with a stop loss at $11.01 and target a drop to the $7.50-7.00
range (although a drop to $8.00 works just fine for us too).

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 15 at $ 9.67
Gain since picked:     - 0.00
Earnings Date        08/05/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     322 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

Endo Pharmaceuticals - ENDP - cls: 16.24 chg: -0.20 stop: 17.26*new*

ENDP has been pretty volatile this past week.  The stock produced
a sharp rally after trading under the $16.00 level on Tuesday.
Then after some dangerous follow through on Wednesday ENDP
promptly turned tail again.  The overall downtrend remains intact
and we should see ENDP breakdown under the $16.00 level this
week.  However, we still suggest that readers consider taking
some money off the table now that ENDP is down more than 16
percent from our entry point.  It never hurts to take a profit.
We are going to lower our stop loss to $17.26 and plan to exit if
ENDP trades at $15.00.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on July 26 at $19.49
Gain since picked:   - 3.25
Earnings Date      07/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   871 thousand




=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.






PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-15-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 16th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of August 16th
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

POS    Catalina Mrktng CorpMon, Aug 16  -----N/A-----        0.16
TEU    CP Ships            Mon, Aug 16  -----N/A-----        0.40
DYS    Dist Servicio D&S SAMon, Aug 16  -----N/A-----         N/A
KMRT   Kmart               Mon, Aug 16  -----N/A-----        0.14
LBTYA  LIBERTY MEDIA INTL  Mon, Aug 16  -----N/A-----       -0.24
LOW    Lowe's Companies    Mon, Aug 16  Before the Bell      0.91
SRV    Service Corp IntrntlMon, Aug 16  -----N/A-----        0.06
SYY    SYSCO Corporation   Mon, Aug 16  Before the Bell      0.45
VAL    Valspar             Mon, Aug 16  Before the Bell      0.87


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

AMAT   Applied Materials   Tue, Aug 17  After the Bell       0.25
BJ     BJ's Wholesale Club Tue, Aug 17  -----N/A-----        0.37
BGP    Borders Group Inc.  Tue, Aug 17  After the Bell       0.07
DE     Deere & Company     Tue, Aug 17  Before the Bell      1.50
DKS    Dick's Sport Goods  Tue, Aug 17  Before the Bell      0.33
HD     Home Depot Inc      Tue, Aug 17  Before the Bell      0.64
JCP    JCPenney            Tue, Aug 17  Before the Bell      0.23
NTAP   Network Appliance   Tue, Aug 17  After the Bell       0.12
SKS    Saks Incorporated   Tue, Aug 17  Before the Bell     -0.12
SPLS   Staples, Inc.       Tue, Aug 17  -----N/A-----        0.22
EL     Estie Lauder Co     Tue, Aug 17  Before the Bell      0.32
TJX    The TJX Companies   Tue, Aug 17  Before the Bell      0.24


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

BHP    BHP Billiton Ltd    Wed, Aug 18  Before the Bell     0.59
BLI    Big Lots, Inc.      Wed, Aug 18  Before the Bell    -0.07
BRCD   Brocade Comm Sys    Wed, Aug 18  After the Bell      0.04
CAI    CACI International  Wed, Aug 18  After the Bell      0.58
DV     DeVry               Wed, Aug 18  After the Bell      0.23
EV     Eaton Vance Corp .  Wed, Aug 18  Before the Bell     0.49
HAR    Harman Intntl Ind   Wed, Aug 18  -----N/A-----       0.68
INTU   Intuit              Wed, Aug 18  After the Bell     -0.07
LII    Lennox InternationalWed, Aug 18  After the Bell      0.53
MDT    Medtronic Inc.      Wed, Aug 18  -----N/A-----       0.43
PETC   PETCO ANIMAL SUPPLY Wed, Aug 18  After the Bell      0.29
ROST   Ross Stores, Inc.   Wed, Aug 18  Before the Bell     0.29
SQM    Soc Quimica Minera  Wed, Aug 18  -----N/A-----        N/A
SNPS   Synopsys            Wed, Aug 18  After the Bell      0.32
TLB    Talbots             Wed, Aug 18  -----N/A-----       0.33


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

ARO    Aeropostale, Inc.   Thu, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.17
AMCR   Amcor Limited       Thu, Aug 19  -----N/A-----        N/A
ADSK   Autodesk, Inc.      Thu, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.30
BKS    Barnes&Noble        Thu, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.15
CLE    Claire's Stores, IncThu, Aug 19  -----N/A-----       0.32
FLO    Flowers Foods       Thu, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.35
FL     Foot Locker, Inc.   Thu, Aug 19  -----N/A-----       0.29
GPS    Gap Inc.            Thu, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.22
HRL    Hormel Foods Corp   Thu, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.34
LANC   Lancaster Colony    Thu, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.55
LTD    Limited Brands      Thu, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.25
MRVL   Marvell Semicon Inc Thu, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.19
NAV    Navistar Intntnl    Thu, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.69
JWN    Nordstrom           Thu, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.77
NOVL   Novell, Inc.        Thu, Aug 19  After the Bell      0.05
PETM   PetsMart            Thu, Aug 19  Before the Bell     0.23


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

WPPGY  WPP Group PLC       Fri, Aug 20  -----N/A-----        1.32


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Co Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

QCOM    Qualcomm Inc              2:1      Aug  13th   Aug  16th
RNT     Aaron Rents, Inc          3:2      Aug  16th   Aug  17th
WIRE    Encore Wire Corporation   3:2      Aug  16th   Aug  17th
BOCH     Bank of Commerce Holdings3:1      Aug  16th   Aug  17th
IMGC    Intermagnetics Gen Corp   3:2      Aug  17th   Aug  18th
POT     Potash Corp Saskatchewan  2:1      Aug  17th   Aug  18th
JOSB    JoS A. Bank Clothiers Inc 5:4      Aug  18th   Aug  19th
HTLD    Heartland Express         3:2      Aug  20th   Aug  23rd
TOX     MEDTOX Scientific, Inc    3:2      Aug  20th   Aug  23rd
IVX     IVAX Corporation          5:4      Aug  24th   Aug  25th
ZBRA    Zebra Tech Corp           3:2      Aug  25th   Aug  26th
WOOF    VCA Antech, Inc           2:1      Aug  25th   Aug  26th
PGTV    Pegasus Comm Corp         2:1      Aug  26th   Aug  27th
BAC     Bank of America           2:1      Aug  27th   Aug  28th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Believe it or not we still have some Q2 earnings reports coming
out.  Wall Street will focus on the economic data due
out on Tuesday and Thursday.  Of course most of the world will
probably be watching the Olympics in Athens all week.

==============================================================
                       -For-

----------------
Monday, 08/16/04
----------------
NY Empire State Index (BB) Aug  Forecast:    32.3  Previous:     36.5


-----------------
Tuesday, 08/17/04
-----------------
Housing Starts (BB)        Jul  Forecast:   1890K  Previous:    1802K
Building Permits (BB)      Jul  Forecast:   1950K  Previous:    1945K
CPI (BB)                   Jul  Forecast:    0.1%  Previous:     0.3%
Core CPI (BB)              Jul  Forecast:    0.2%  Previous:     0.1%
Industrial Production (BB) Jul  Forecast:    0.5%  Previous:    -0.3%
Capacity Utilization (BB)  Jul  Forecast:   77.5%  Previous:    77.2%


-------------------
Wednesday, 08/18/04
-------------------
None


------------------
Thursday, 08/19/04
------------------
Initial Claims (BB)      08/14  Forecast:     N/A  Previous:     333K
Leading Indicators (DM)    Jul  Forecast:    0.0%  Previous:    -0.2%
Philadelphia Fed (DM)      Aug  Forecast:    30.0  Previous:     36.1
SEMI Book to Bill Report

----------------
Friday, 08/20/04
----------------
None


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

VLO     Valero Energy Corp         66.57    +1.45
SM      Saint Mary Land & Explor   32.61    +0.61
MTD     Mettler Toledo Intl Inc    43.10    +1.18
MTH     Meritage Corp              63.54    +0.84
PCU     Southern Peru Copper       37.21    +0.61
IBM     Internat Business Mach     83.91    +1.70


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

PSSI    PSS World Medical Inc      10.89    +1.75
STMP    Stamps.com Inc             11.59    +1.99
DJO     DJ Orthopedics(ipo)        19.75    +1.55


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

KSS     Kphl's Corp                46.10    +2.40
DELL    Dell Inc                   34.51    +1.39
STST    Sensytech Inc              23.09    +2.43
LXK    Lexmark International       85.32    +3.80
SCSC    Scansource Inc             57.23    +6.28


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

NTES    Netease.com Inc            30.01    -1.25
WGO     Winnebago Industries Inc   29.07    -1.40
ABC     Americourcebergen Corp     49.91    -3.09
HNP     Huaneng Power Intl Inc     27.30    -1.10
IPMT    Ipayment                   33.46    -2.54


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

WBK     Westpac Banking Cp         58.32    -0.74


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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
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factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
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DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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Littleton, CO 80163

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