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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 08/18/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 08-18-2004
                                                   section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: A New Meaning
Watch List:  A small list of bullish candidates

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


===============================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
===============================================================
     08-18-2004            High     Low     Volume Advance/Decline
DJIA    10083.15 +110.32 10083.15  9934.05 1.58 bln   2192/ 621
NASDAQ   1831.37 + 36.12  1831.37  1784.60 1.55 bln   2240/ 797
S&P 100   534.84 +  6.44   534.84   526.81   Totals   4432/1418
S&P 500  1095.17 + 13.46  1095.17  1078.93
RUS 2000  541.61 + 11.61   541.70   526.98
DJ TRANS 3094.47 + 49.87  3094.60  3027.20
VIX        16.23 -  0.79    19.67    16.13
VXO        16.30 -  0.89    17.80    16.27
VXN        24.17 -  1.38    26.29    24.07
Total Volume 3,461M
Total UpVol  3,040M
Total DnVol    389M
52wk Highs     104
52wk Lows      122
TRIN          0.43
PUT/CALL      0.98
===============================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

A New Meaning
Linda Piazza

Jim attends a conference through the end of this week, and will
return next week.

Those who looked forward to seeing the markets googled may have
attached a new meaning to that anticipated effect Wednesday.
While the long-awaited Google (GOOG) IPO was expected to
reinvigorate markets when it was first announced, news related to
its IPO may deflated markets instead pre-market-open Wednesday
morning.

Beginning in the European overnight session, commentators began
to mention the Google effect as one depressant on the markets.
Although the Google IPO had been expected to debut Wednesday, the
SEC closed its doors Tuesday afternoon without declaring the
company's registration statement effective.  At 4:07 Wednesday
afternoon, CNBC announced that Google had finally obtained that
registration statement, clearing Google to launch its IPO.

Monday, news had circulated that the SEC was conducting an
informal probe into options grants for Google's employees, but by
Wednesday morning, another possible problem had resurfaced.
Although most had assumed that potential problems with the
founders' interview with Playboy had been resolved by amended IPO
documents that included the interview, some were mentioning that
the SEC might have second thoughts about that interview, too.
The thought was that the article may have violated quiet-period
rules although the interview was conducted in April.  In
addition, many viewed the two-tier class structure for the shares
as problematic.

While some termed these mistakes "amateur" mistakes, there might
have been little room for amateurish actions in a climate of tech
weakness.  Enthusiasm for Google's IPO had apparently dimmed.
During the overnight session, Google announced that it would trim
the expected range of its IPO from the former $108-135 to $85-95,
a decision that did not come as a surprise to many market
watchers.  The recent weakness in tech stocks, including Internet
stocks, resulted in reduced interest in a high-priced IPO.
Google also said that it would sell fewer shares.  If the company
is able to price shares at the midpoint of its new range, the
reduced share offering would bring in $1.8 billion.

Also, pre-market, an AP report named Dutch bank and insurer ING
as the Janus client planning to withdraw from the fund, with the
planned ING withdrawal representing about 4 percent of Janus'
assets.  ING dropped in early European trading, although it had
gained 0.71 percent by the U.S. close.

Crude futures also pressured European markets and U.S. futures.
Several weeks ago, a European technical analyst discussed crude
prices on CNBC Europe.  That analyst mentioned a short-term
target for crude at $47.50 and a top at $57.00.  At the time,
even though crude prices had been surging, those targets appeared
overstated.  They didn't appear so this morning, with crude
futures for September delivery above $47.00 in the overnight
session and hitting $47.35 just before the Department of Energy
released its inventories figures.

Equity futures reacted as expected in the pre-market session,
dropping with that and other news.  In Europe, Air France and
Deutsche Lufthansa this week added surcharges to cope with rising
crude costs, and Finnair blamed rising fuel costs for an
anticipated loss in 2004.  Other companies begin to mention the
impact that rising crude costs have on their earnings.

Readers have been advised for a long time to watch crude futures
since rising prices pressure the equity markets.  Equity markets
often trade in an inverse relationship to crude futures.
However, a different meaning might now be attached to crude's
climb.  At some point, crude futures will top out for the short-
term, and each cent tacked onto its price brings it closer to
that short-term top.  Crude's rise has become almost parabolic
since mid-August.  If that analyst on CNBC Europe was correct,
that short-term top may not be the final top, but that short-term
top could come any time, including at the $47.50 mark that
analyst indicated, almost hit Wednesday.  In addition, at some
point, markets will begin to anticipate the absolute swing top in
crude prices, and will begin to discount that top, with equity
indices perhaps disconnecting from the current pattern of trading
in opposition to crude futures.  We may see a period, perhaps
only a short-term period or perhaps longer, when both equities
and crude rise.  That period may have begun Wednesday.

Annotated Five-Minute Charts of Crude Futures and the TRAN:




Because so many geopolitical developments factor into the costs
of crude, it's difficult to pinpoint whether the disconnect has
begun or if Wednesday's trading pattern was just an aberration.
Did it begin today because the situation in Najaf could possibly
be resolved more peaceably than was first expected?  Did Jimmy
Carter's willingness to reexamine referendum results in Venezuela
calm that situation?  Will the disconnect happen if Yukos is
purchased and markets believe the purchaser can maintain
production standards?

Developments in Iraq and Russia led to some of Wednesday's
volatility in crude prices, but market watchers also noted that a
monthly report from OPEC may have resulted in the pre-market
spike in crude prices.  OPEC raised expectations for 2004's
demand by 27.17 million barrels.  Although OPEC also noted that
OPEC production could meet demand in both 2004 and 2005, markets
did not want to hear about increased demand in a rising-price
environment.

In addition, Wednesday, Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr reportedly
agreed to withdraw his forces from Naraf's holy shrine.  Many
deaths and injuries had already resulted in Wednesday's clash
before the cleric's decision. Although some distrust this
development, especially as the cleric also demanded a truce with
surrounding U.S. troops, the possibility of a peaceful resolution
in Naraf eased some fears about oil production in Iraq.  Six
hours before the cleric agreed to withdraw his Mehdi Army
militia, Iraq's defense minister had warned that an assault on
the shrine was imminent.  The possibility that the cleric would
withdraw tempered the early gains in crude prices that other
developments had engendered.

Those other developments included a Russian court's refusal
Tuesday to suspend the government's efforts to collect Yukos' tax
bill for 2000, setting up the possibility that the company will
file for bankruptcy.  The developments also included Department
of Energy and API figures showing decreasing crude inventories.
The Department of Energy quoted a 1.3 million barrel decrease
while the American Petroleum Institute quoted a 1.5 million
barrel decrease.  Because of Hurricane Charley and Tropical Storm
Bonnie, some had anticipated a bigger decline, however, by as
much a 3-5 million barrels.  Others argued that the real effect
will not be shown until next week. The confusion resulted in
volatile trading patterns between 10:30 and 11:00, when the
Department of Energy and API released their figures.

Other figures showed gasoline inventories down 2.6 million
barrels, according to the Energy Department, and 3.5 million
barrels, according to API; and distillate inventories rising 2.1
million barrels, according to the Energy Department, and up 1.6
million barrels, according to API.

The temporarily lessened import of rising crude prices, perhaps
because some view those prices as topping out, allowed equities
to rise in Wednesday's trading.  The TRAN rose through its
descending regression channel, climbing above the 30- and 50-
dma's and closing above both.

Annotated Daily Chart of the TRAN:




The TRAN rises toward a challenge 3100 and the top of its
descending regression channel, near 3125, both levels the TRAN
could reach tomorrow or the next day.  The TRAN tends to produce
a consolidation-type candle as it reaches important milestones,
so it would not be a surprise to see it produce a smaller-range
candle Thursday that touches or perhaps pierces 3100 or the top
of the descending regression channel.  As yet, it's not possible
to predict whether the TRAN will break through that channel or
turn down again.  Oscillators suggest more upside to go, but they
often do as the TRAN approaches the top of the descending
regression channel, and the TRAN has historically still turned
down at that resistance.  This has been a bellwether index
lately, sometimes being more predictive of market action than the
often-hailed SOX, so keep an eye on this index's action tomorrow
with respect to that upper channel line.  Remember that the TRAN
can be volatile, so that it sometimes pierces a trendline only to
fall back below it.

Crude was not the only influence on the markets today, of course.
Earnings reports from retailers Borders Group (BGP), Charming
Shoppes (CHRS), Ross Stores (ROST), and Talbots (TLB) showed all
four companies either meeting or beating forecasts, helping to
support markets early in the session. All were positive part of
the day, although not all held onto their gains.  The S&P Retail
Index, the RLX, did, however, closing cents above its 200-dma.
That close came at a level from which the RLX might pull back to
form a shoulder of a potential inverse H&S, however.

Also, early Wednesday morning, the Mortgage Bankers' Association
released figures showing that for the week ending August 13, the
Market Composite Index of mortgage loan applications rose 11.9
percent. The seasonally adjusted Refinance Index soared 20.9
percent.  The Refinancing Index had last shown refinancing
activity up 2.5 percent.  The average 30-year, fixed-rate
mortgage decreased to 5.75 percent from the 5.80 percent figure a
week earlier.  The Dow Jones US Home Construction Index, the
DJUSHB, climbed, but only a modest 0.49 percent.  Benefiting more
were the financial stocks, with the BIX, the S&P Banking Index,
gaining 0.99 percent, and the BKX, the Philadelphia Bank Sector
Index, rising 0.93 percent.  The BIX broke through the upside of
an orthodox broadening formation on its daily chart, although
technical analysis suggested that a downside break was more
likely.

Annotated Daily Chart for the BIX:



There's no reason to doubt this breakout, but traders might be
wary, nonetheless.  Watch Thursday for follow-through on this
index or for a fall back inside the formation, a bearish
occurrence if it should happen.

Other indices produced upside breakouts out of formations
typically deemed bearish.  The SPX was one.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:



The SPX nearly met the upside target suggested by the break out
of a rectangular pattern.  Limited upside follow-through tomorrow
might be one outcome, with a pullback to follow, perhaps next
week.  One developing pattern on the 240-minute and daily charts
suggests this possibility.

Annotated 240-Minute Chart of the SPX:



A close much above 1109 would appear to negate the potential
formation, while a close between 1000 and 1109 would require a
redrawing of the possible neckline, then depicting it as
horizontal rather than declining.  A candle that pierces that
trendline and possibly 1100, but closes at or below both, would
tend to confirm the possibility of the SPX turning down into
another shoulder.  Anyone who has traded through the last year
knows better than to count on either a regular H&S or an inverse
one confirming, but watching this formation allows traders an
opportunity to measure strength or weakness.  A drop much past
1070 would tend to reject the formation, but even if it's to be
eventually confirmed, it's possible that bulls will endure a
pullback first.

The Nasdaq and SOX both climbed to test the former support from
their violated descending regression channels.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:




Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX:



Although the TRAN's behavior has often been more indicative of
the markets' general direction than the SOX lately, it may be
time to return to watching the SOX for guidance. The SOX's gains
Wednesday were produced despite disappointment with Applied
Materials' (AMAT) guidance.  With the semi book-to-bill number
due Thursday after the close, it might be possible to see a
continued run-up into that number, perhaps to 393-394 or even up
to the 30-dma, but a high-wave candle, doji, or other candle
indicative of indecision appears possible for Thursday, too,
after Wednesday's big gain.

The daily charts of the Dow and Russell 2000 showed many of the
characteristics shown on that of the SPX.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000:



Like the SPX, the potential for an inverse H&S exists on this
chart, but the Russell 2000 may have further to climb before
consolidating and rounding down into another shoulder, perhaps up
toward 548-550, depending on whether the neckline is to be
horizontal or descending.  The Russell 2000 has met the upside
target projected by the break out of its rectangular
consolidation formation, however, and soon faces resistance from
those converging moving averages marked on the chart, so it's
possible that it will see some type of candle indicative of
indecision tomorrow or Friday, too.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:



The Dow ended the day jammed up against next resistance after
having met the upside target predicted by the breakout of its
rectangular consolidation zone.  An inverse H&S also remains
possible on the Dow.  If that inverse H&S is to form, look for
either an immediate downturn or possible follow-through on the
gains Thursday morning, perhaps up to 10,100-10,120, with the Dow
backing off the high of the day by the close and producing one of
the candles indicative of indecision.  Gains much higher than
10,120 might indicate that the neckline will not be descending,
but that the Dow might instead rise toward 10,200 before
steadying and forming a possible horizontal neckline.

Although many indices present the possibility of a consolidation-
type day or pullback beginning Thursday after some initial
follow-through, stronger gains or an immediate reversal can't be
ruled out.  Those possibilities of a consolidation-type day can
also be predicated upon the usual tendency of a tight-range day
to follow a large-range day, and on the often-seen tendency for
indices to get pinned to certain numbers beginning about midday
on the Thursday of an option-expiration week.  However, overnight
developments in Iraq or Russia might change the tenor of trading
Thursday, and just because tight-range days tend to follow large-
range days doesn't meant that they always do.

Indecision might now be unexpected tomorrow for reasons other
than what's seen on charts, too.  Thursday, market watchers may
feel as if their heads are spinning, trying to weigh the impact
of many economic releases.  Initial jobless claims begins the
day, released at 8:30.  Last week's number showed 333 thousand
new claims, with 335-340 thousand expected for this week's
number.  At 10:00, July's Leading Indicators, the DJ/BTM Business
Barometer, and Chicago Fed Index will all be released.  June's
Leading Indicators Index fell 0.2 percent, with expectations for
July's also suggesting a decline, from 0.1-0.4 percent, depending
on the source.

Thirty minutes later sees the release of the natural gas
inventories, not garnering as much attention lately as the crude
inventories number.  A noon, the August Philly Fed Index will be
released.  In July, the Philly Fed stood at 36.1, with
predictions for August's number spanning a wide range, from 20.0-
30.8, depending on the source.  After the close sees the Money
Supply number and the Semi Book-to-Bill number, released at about
6:00 EST.  Although that semi number will not be released during
trading, anticipation might impact the SOX tomorrow.

Then there's the Google effect.  As this report was prepared, it
was not yet certain whether Google would begin trading Thursday,
but that remained a possibility.   The potential scenario for the
markets outlined in these pages might be radically changed by
Google's IPO if it begins trading or by some geopolitical event
occurring during the overnight session, events that cannot be
foreseen tonight.  Test early market action against the scenario
to see if it fits. Discard the scenario if it doesn't.  Many
markets ended at or just under possible resistance, allowing an
easy test of that scenario.


=================================================================
WATCH LIST
=================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

A small list of bullish candidates

ValueClick - VCLK - close: 7.62 change: +0.46

WHAT TO WATCH: More aggressive bulls might want to watch VCLK for
a breakout over $7.80 or the $8.00 level.  Such a move would put
VCLK into its gap and shares could try and "fill the gap" from
early August.  Should this occur we'd probably target a move to
$9.00, which was support back in march and May and should be new
resistance.

Chart=


---

Cree Inc - CREE - close: 24.23 change: +1.84

WHAT TO WATCH: the rebound in the semiconductor index (SOX) was
impressive today but not as impressive as CREE's 8.2% rally.
CREE has broken out above 5 1/2 month resistance at the $23.50
level on big volume.  While we normally don't like to chase moves
this big we considered it but it's probably no coincidence that
the rally today stalled right at P&F resistance.  We'd watch this
stock for a dip and bounce from the $23.50 level or a new high
over $24.50.

Chart=


---

Synopsys - SNPS - close: 21.28 change: +0.98

WHAT TO WATCH: The rally from support at $20.00 looks pretty
tempting as does the new "buy" signal in its MACD indicator.
Unfortunately, bulls need to be careful here with resistance just
overhead at $22.00.  Once over $22.00 then we can target a move
to "fill the gap" up to $25.00.  Be extra careful here since SNPS
guided lower for earnings on its next quarter.

Chart=



-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

AAPL $31.74 +0.87 - We are still bullish on AAPL as it bounces
along its rising trendline of support.  Consider a move over
$32.00 or $32.50 as an entry point.

NPSP $20.62 +1.34 - Wow! NPSP added another 6.95% on strong
volume to breakout over round-number resistance at $20.00.


NVDA $11.70 +0.73 - Now we're wishing we'd taken that entry point
yesterday.  NVDA is up another 6.6% as it begins to fill the gap.


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FNM     Fannie Mae                 74.36    +1.29
BAC     Bank of America Corp       87.45    +0.57
HD      Home Depot Inc             36.06    +0.93
MWD     Morgan Stanley             49.82    +0.46
CMCSA   Comcast Corp CI A          27.86    +0.44
DB      Deutsche Bank Ag           68.75    +0.57


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

PIR     Pier 1 Imports Inc         17.71    +0.06
WIND    Wind River Systems Inc     10.24    +0.47
NPSP    NPS Pharmaceuticals Inc    20.62    +1.34
TOO     Too Inc                    16.02    +0.74
MANT    Masntech International A   14.19    +0.17


---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

HD      Home Depot Inc             36.06    +0.93
WTW     Weight Watchers Intl Inc   38.00    +0.68
RL      Ralph Lauren Corp          36.67    +0.47
CCJ     Cameco Corp                64.18    +1.54
VIP     Vimpel Communications (ADS)92.80    -1.00


-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

BRG     BG Plc                     31.40    -0.04
VLO     Valero Energy Corp         65.10    +0.74
EL      Estee Lauder Cos Inc       42.28    +2.28
EOG     EOG Resources Inc          56.13    +0.73
NBR     Nabors Industries Inc      42.29    +0.39


-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

TPL     Texas Pacific Land Trust   78.90    +0.95


==========================================================
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=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

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Copyright 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter               Wednesday 08-18-2004
                                                   section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  None

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  New Bullish plays:    TKLC
  Closed Bearish Plays: CCBL, CMTL, NATI

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  New Bullish plays:    NYB

High Risk/Reward
  New Bullish plays:    MACR


=================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
=================================================================

None


=================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
=================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Tekelec - TKLC - close: 18.40 change: +0.37 stop: 16.99

Company Description:
Tekelec is a leading developer of now and next-generation
signaling and switching telecommunications solutions, network
monitoring technology, and value-added applications. Tekelec's
innovative solutions are widely deployed in traditional and next-
generation wireline and wireless networks and contact centers
worldwide. Corporate headquarters are located in Calabasas,
Calif., with research and development facilities and sales
offices throughout the world. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like TKLC because shares are bouncing from the bottom of its
rising channel and they just broke through resistance at the
$18.00 level.  Looking at the chart you'll see the big gap up in
July.  That was investor reaction to TKLC's earnings report.  The
company beat estimates by 5 cents and guided its Q3 higher above
analysts' expectations.  The rally faded under resistance at
$20.00 as the broader market rolled over.  Now technicals are
turning higher and its MACD is very close to producing a new
"buy" signal.  You might recognize TKLC because it was on the
watch list for a breakout over $18.00.  Now that TKLC has done
just that we're adding it to the play list.  The P&F chart is
bullish and points to a $23.00 target.  We're going to target a
move to $20.00 (for now).

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 18 at $18.40
Gain since picked:     + 0.00
Earnings Date        07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     722 thousand
Chart =



============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

C-COR.net - CCBL - close: 8.10 chg: +0.77 stop: 7.61

Ouch!  It looks like someone decided to cover their shorts today.
With the NASDAQ up sharply in the last three days and the
Industrials back above the 10,000 mark we can understand the
concern.  Shares of CCBL rallied more than 10 percent to breakout
and close over resistance at the $8.00 level.  This is an
important move because it also breaks the descending trendline of
resistance dating back to April.  We have been stopped out at
$7.61 for a small move.  Considering the sharpness in today's
rally and the lack of volume and news we wonder if CCBL's gains
will last.

Picked on July 23 at $ 7.95
Gain since picked:   + 0.15
Earnings Date      08/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    621 thousand
Chart =


---

Comtech Telcom - CMTL - close: 18.40 change: +0.53 stop: 18.25

We have a similar story in CMTL.  The stock has followed the
NASDAQ higher and broken back above its simple 10 and 21-dma's.
More importantly it has CMTL has closed above the $18.00 level of
support/resistance.  Technicals are turning bullish and its MACD
has produced a new "buy" signal.  Now this sort of bullish
reversal happened in late July and CMTL failed but this time
we've been stopped out at $18.25.

Picked on July 21 at $19.20
Gain since picked:   - 0.60
Earnings Date      06/08/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:   400 thousand
Chart =


---

Natl. Instrument - NATI - cls: 25.65 chg: +0.73 stop: 25.51

Argh! NATI came so close to hitting the $24.00 level on Monday
but now shares are bouncing again.  NATI has worked out very well
for us.  The stock hit our initial target at $25.00 pretty early
and we lowered our target to $24.00.  Today's oversold bounce has
stopped us out at $25.51 for a decent move down.

Picked on August 04 at $27.83
Gain since picked:     - 2.18
Earnings Date        07/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     309 thousand
Chart =


=================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
=================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

New York Cmmty Bank - NYB - close: 20.39 change: +0.50 stop: 19.49

Company Description:
New York Community Bancorp, Inc. is the $24.1 billion holding
company for New York Community Bank and the fifth largest thrift
in the nation, based on total assets. The Bank serves its
customers through a network of 142 banking offices in New York
City, Long Island, Westchester County, and New Jersey, and
operates through seven divisions: Queens County Savings Bank,
Roslyn Savings Bank, Richmond County Savings Bank, Roosevelt
Savings Bank, CFS Bank, First Savings Bank of New Jersey, and
Ironbound Bank. In addition to operating the largest supermarket
banking franchise in the New York metro region, with 52 in-store
branches, the Bank is one of the leading producers of multi-
family mortgage loans in New York City.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We are graduating NYB from the watch list to the play list.  The
strength in financial stocks has finally inspired bulls to push
NYB above round-number resistance at the $20.00 level.  This
follows NYB's four-week climb from its lows near $18.00 and its
technical breakouts over the 40 and 50-dma's.  Now we might be a
little early suggesting a bullish play here since it will take a
move over $21.00 to produce a new P&F buy signal.  However, we
wanted to play the breakout and believe NYB can make it to the
$22.00 level and/or its simple 100-dma (currently 22.85).  We
will start the play with a stop loss at $19.49.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 18 at $20.39
Gain since picked:     + 0.00
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     3.2 million
Chart =



=================================================================
High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section
=================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Macromedia - MACR - close: 19.78 change: +0.47 stop: 18.00

Company Description:
Experience matters. Macromedia is motivated by the belief that
great experiences build great businesses. Our software empowers
millions of business users, developers, and designers to create
and deliver effective, compelling, and memorable experiences –
on the Internet, on fixed media, on wireless, and on digital
devices. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We are adding MACR to the high risk/reward section because we're
trying to call a bottom in the stock.  Normally trying to pick a
bottom can be hazardous to your trading account but this time we
have some long-term support helping us out.  The stock is very
oversold from its June highs near $26.00 and has drifted all the
way to $18.00 before bouncing.  It's no coincidence that MACR
found a bottom near $18 because it also happens to be a trendline
of support dating back to October of last year.  Short-term
technicals are turning higher and its MACD has produced a new
"buy" signal from very oversold.  Coincidentally the recent low
also appears to be new P&F support.  We are expecting a lot of
volatility as MACR climbs higher so we're putting the stop at
$18.00.  Our current six to eight week target is $24.00.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 18th  $19.78
Gain since picked:     + 0.00
Earnings Date        07/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.0 million
Chart =



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