PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 08-22-2004 section 1 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Oversupply and Undersupply Stories Market Sentiment: End of Summer Watch List: Gold to Supercomputers and more! ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= WE 8-20 WE 8-13 WE 8-06 WE 7-30 DOW 10110.14 +284.79 9825.35 + 10.02 9815.33 -324.38 +177.49 Nasdaq 1831.02 + 73.80 1757.22 - 19.67 1776.89 -110.47 + 38.27 S&P-100 536.04 + 15.32 520.72 - 1.11 521.83 - 15.84 + 7.29 S&P-500 1098.35 + 33.55 1064.80 + 0.83 1063.97 - 37.75 + 15.52 W5000 10648.75 +344.09 10304.66 - 3.18 10307.84-393.81 +147.83 SOX 386.00 + 19.35 366.65 - 20.23 386.88 - 29.55 + 10.85 RUT 547.92 + 30.53 517.39 - 2.26 519.65 - 31.64 + 12.07 TRAN 3090.87 +123.95 2966.92 + 0.84 2966.08 -145.61 + 68.25 WE = week ending ================================================================= =========================== Market Wrap =========================== Oversupply and Undersupply Stories Linda Piazza Jim Brown attends a conference this week, and will return next week. Writers and subscribers alike look forward to his return. Oversupply and undersupply stories dominated reports early Friday morning, with those reports pressuring markets. Futures eased during the overnight session. Cash markets dipped at the open, too. They soon found support and waffled around for a number of hours, looking for next direction before heading higher through the afternoon until a steep dip off the highs in the last few minutes. Internals had been strong all day, with advancers ahead of decliners on both exchanges throughout the day. TRIN had trended down from bearish to neutral in the early period and then quickly into bullish territory, signaling the up-thrust to come in the equities before it actually arrived. Those oversupply and undersupply stories did not start the day on a bullish theme, however. They included oversupply issues related to LCD's. Isupply Corporation, a California-based business, reported that global supply of LCD's needed for computer and television screens surpassed demand in the first half of the year, and that the excess was likely to widen. In European trading, companies such as Royal Philips Electronics had already headed down before the U.S. open. As James Brown reported later in the day on OIN's Market Monitor, CNBC later reported that the oversupply was likely to bring prices lower on flat-panel televisions. Concerns about rising inventories in semiconductor and tech stocks have pressured semi-related stocks lower through the summer months until August's bounce. Figures released by the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International after the close Thursday did not ease those concerns. According to a Bloomberg article, the semi-book-to-bill report showed the smallest month-to-month increase in global orders since August, 2003. Although the book-to-bill ratio remained above the benchmark 1.00, the July ratio fell to 1.05 from June's revised 1.07. Credit Suisse First Boston reportedly termed the number worse than expected, with CSFB expecting 1.08 from a revised 1.07 for June. As Jim Brown has often reminded us, that book-to-bill ratio reflects a three-month average. That means that the July number must have been lower than 1.05 to achieve that lower three-month-average. For those who would like to view the complete report, it can be accessed www.semi.org. During the morning, the SOX's behavior remained lackluster, dragging down other indices that appeared to want to bounce from support, then doing some waffling of its own. That waffling took the form of a neutral triangle before the SOX finally pushed above that triangle and joined other indices that were breaking out at the same time. Annotated 15-Minute Chart of the SOX: Gap Inc. (GPS) might have experienced a bit of an oversupply problem, too. Poor attendance at summer clearance sales impacted the retailer, causing it to be lumped together with JWN and NOVL, other companies with earnings reports deemed disappointing. The RLX, the S&P Retail Index, managed a gain Friday, but that gain straddled the 200-dma, showing the RLX spending a fourth day testing that average. Annotated Daily Chart of the RLX: The RLX looks ready to roll down into a right shoulder or punch up through the converging 50- and 200-dma's. Another oversupply story concerned GM. According to a WSJ story, GM may trim production as much as five percent due to dealers cutting back their orders as they experience rising inventories. GM opened $0.54 below Thursday's close, but managed to make up all but $0.21 or 0.51 percent of those losses. Rising fuel costs number among the reasons for those rising inventories that car manufacturers and others experience. Crude costs and the reasons behind those costs composed the undersupply story for the day. In the overnight session, crude futures for September delivery traded a new record high, variously reported as $49.20 and $49.27, on supply concerns. The clash between radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's militia and U.S. and Iraqi troops escalated overnight, with one headline Friday morning mentioning 77 killed and 70 wounded in the fighting since Thursday morning. The cleric's militia had threatened to attack Iraq's pipeline and other elements of the oil infrastructure. By midmorning, reports began surfacing that Iraqi police had gained control of the Iman Ali Mosque, the shrine where the cleric had taken refuge. Witnesses had reported seeing Iraqi police transporting arms out of the mosque. Markets began hesitant climbs off their lows of the day. Some speculated that the cleric had fled the mosque, and Iraq's Interior Ministry spokesman appealed to the cleric to turn himself in, saying that the police were in control of the shrine. Those reports were soon disputed, however. A senior aide of the cleric claimed that the shrine was still in control of the Mehdi army. News correspondents associated with the U.S. Marines reported that the Marines were unable to verify the reports that Iraqi police had taken control, with witnesses reporting fighting continuing near the shrine where Mehdi militia have been holed up in the mosque complex, the adjoining cemetery, and the alleyways leading to the mosque. The Iraqi national security adviser reported an inability to establish communications with the governor and chief of police of Najaf and verify those earlier reports. Later in the afternoon, U.S. time, witnesses began reporting the Mehdi militia in charge of the shrine and its approaches, with Iraqi police not seen. One must wonder whether the initial reports of a takeover of the shrine and a disarming of the cleric's militia were not intended to convince Sadr to turn himself over and call off his militia. As this report was prepared Friday evening, Iraqi police in Najaf had reportedly just confirmed that they did not control the site. Sadr's aide said that talks were underway to transfer control of the site to another cleric. As the day wore on, however, markets seemed to care less and less about what was happening in Najaf. Perhaps some reasoned that the conflict was drawing to close, whether that close came on Friday or another day. Crude futures dropped throughout the afternoon, with crude futures for September delivery dropping from that overnight high all the way to $47.60. Equity markets began bouncing as crude futures dropped. As the conflict dragged through the week, at least some of the quick inflation in crude futures might have been attributed to the fast-approaching expiration of crude futures for September delivery, however, with that expiration occurring Friday. Shorts who had expected a resolution any day as the cleric agreed to ceasefires and then rescinded his agreement almost as quickly must have been feeling the squeeze as expiration Friday approached. Rising crude costs have benefited the OSX, of course, and Lehman Brothers upgraded the group to a positive rating from its previous neutral rating. The firm also upgraded companies CAM, CLB, TDW, OII, RIG, GSF, NE, and SII. Almost all of those stocks gapped higher Friday, but although none closed the gap, most could not hold onto all their gains and printed bearish shooting stars Friday. The intraday chart for the SOX shown above indicated that the SOX also could not hold onto its gains. Wednesday's Wrap had suggested that indices might print small-bodied candles at resistance, perhaps through Friday, and the SOX followed that scenario. Annotated Daily Chart for the SOX: The theory presented Wednesday had been that many indices had seen strong gains Wednesday, and might need a day or two to consolidate their gains. Many indices also displayed the possibility of forming inverse H&S, with either descending necklines if the indices turned down from then-current levels or from horizontal ones if they rose up to next resistance. The expectation had been for many indices to print candles like the ones shown on the SOX daily chart for Thursday and Friday. That did happen for the RLX and some other indices as well as the SOX. However, other indices confounded that theory by showing larger- range days than expected Thursday and Friday while still maintaining the possibility of turning down into another shoulder. Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX: The bearish 50/200 cross and the continued trade within the descending regression channel still suggest that selling rallies remains the preferred strategy, but the possibility that the SPX could trade all the way up to the top of that descending regression channel or even break out of the channel cannot be ignored. The weekly chart presents a more bullish view of the SPX's actions. Annotated Weekly Chart of the SPX: Because of the possibility that the SPX's weekly morning-star pattern could be signaling a reversal up through its descending regression channel, those who prefer to play the bullish side could wait for a test of the 200-dma, with a move above it confirmed by a move above the 100-dma. Plans should be made to protect profits in the 1130-1135 zone, however, in case the SPX turns down again instead of breaking out through resistance line. In actuality, with the exception of the breakout above 1080, it has been difficult to find a safe place from which to suggest a bullish play because of multiple resistance zones ahead as the SPX moves up through that congestion zone. The Nasdaq printed its own potential reversal signal on the weekly chart, although not in as classic form as did the SPX. The daily chart shows that the Nasdaq stopped short Friday at a descending trendline that has been in place for more than a month, also the site of the diving 30-dma. Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq: The descending red trendline depicted above could serve as the neckline for an inverse H&S, but the Nasdaq oscillators indicate that the Nasdaq could push higher. Those who prefer to play the bullish side could watch for a push above that trendline, confirmed by a move above the 30-dma, but should have profit- protecting plans in place as the Nasdaq approaches 1890-1900, the likely site of the descending 50 and 200-ema's by the time that level could be approached. If the Nasdaq is to form an inverse H&S from a horizontal neckline, that would be the appropriate spot for a rollover into another shoulder. Like the other indices, however, bearish MA crossovers suggest that selling rallies could still be the preferred strategy, with the knowledge that crossovers tend to come late in a movement. Bullish MA crossovers, confirming strength, could come just as late in the movement. Out of all the indices, the Russell 2000 may be the closest to reaching an appropriate rollover level from a horizontal neckline or a push through the neckline, rejecting the potential formation and preparing for a climb up toward the 200-dma. Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000: Like the positioning of the oscillators on other indices, their positioning on the Russell 2000's daily chart presents the possibility of more upside. A rollover at the potential horizontal neckline for an inverse H&S may not occur, and the Russell 2000 may instead shoot up to test its more closely watched 200-sma and then perhaps the top of its regression channel. A bullish trade in the Russell remains problematic, however, as there has just been a bearish 100/200-sma cross, it does still remain within a descending regression channel, and so many potential pitfalls in the form of various MA's exist in the path of any bullish play. Some oscillators signal incipient bearish divergence as they've already reached higher highs when compared to the early August period while price has not. The Russell 2000 can erase that potential divergence, however, by the simple method of climbing higher than that early August high. The Dow, too, may be aiming for a horizontal neckline to a potential inverse H&S, if it intends to form one. Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow (using DJX as proxy): The Dow also produced a nice-looking morning-star reversal signal on its weekly chart. It had also been showing bullish divergence on this daily chart. Note that the last approach to the bottom of the regression channel stopped before touching that channel, when the previous approach had not only touched it, but breached it. However, a bullish trade in the Dow appears as problematic as one in the Russell 2000, with a group of important moving averages converging overhead. While the Dow can plow through those averages, it appears more likely that it would need consolidation or a pullback from that resistance before doing so. Look for a test of 10,130-10,170 and a rollover from that zone as an opportunity for a bearish play. A break above the 200-sma would be one indication for a bullish play, but profit-protecting plans should be in place as the top of the descending regression channel is approached. If indices begin rollovers sometime next week instead of punching up through next resistance levels, special note should be taken of the shoulder levels in the possible inverse H&S formations. If in bearish plays, profit-protecting plans should be place ahead of tests of those potential shoulder levels. OIN readers are not the only ones capable of noting potential formations, and those intending to buy could step in ahead of the actual shoulder level. Anywhere ahead, actually. With weekly charts showing bullish reversal signals and daily charts presenting the possibility that even a pullback could be part of a bullish inverse H&S formation, some might be willing to buy well ahead of such a test of the shoulder level. Those profit-protecting plans could include plans that allow for participation in further downside if the shoulder levels are violated. Taking over for the SOX lately as an indicator index, the TRAN may provide our first clue as to whether other indices are likely to roll over or break out to the upside. Annotated Daily Chart of the TRAN: Unlike some other indices, the TRAN has the support of both the 200-sma and -ema below it. The indices are printing beautiful potential reversal signals on their weekly charts. Some have broken above the midlines of their regression channels. Daily chart oscillators still indicate there's plenty of upside to go. What could precipitate a rollover now? Crude could, of course. If the theory about an expiration- related run-up in crude coupled with an actual price increase is wrong, crude could continue higher next week. An incident in the final days of the Olympics or a blown-up pipeline in Iraq could precipitate a rollover, although it's difficult to even give words to that first possibility. The terrible historical trading pattern for the last week in August, mentioned by James Brown in OIN's Market Monitor on Monday, could reassert itself this year, resulting in a rollover. Fear of the GDP could also do it. That GDP will be released Friday. No important economic releases are scheduled for Monday, and the calendar for the entire week will be lighter than last week's heavy calendar, although not without its share of weighty releases. Tuesday sees July's Existing Home Sales at 10:00 EST. Expectations are for a decrease to 6.78 million, down from the prior month's 6.95 million. Wednesday's numbers include July's Durable Orders at 3:30, with expectations for that number at a 0.8 percent rise after June's 0.9 percent climb. Wednesday's releases also include July's New Homes Sales, with expectations for 1,280 thousand sales, down from June's 1,326 thousand sales. Also, Wednesday has become important because of the 10:30-11:00 releases of the Department of Energy and API figures for crude, distillate, and gasoline inventories. Thursday, natural gas inventories, watched less closely lately, will be released, but more might be watching for the earlier, 8:30 release of Initial Claims and the 10:00 release of July's Help-Wanted Index. Economists expect the Help-Wanted Index to show an increase to 39 from June's 38. Friday draws more attention, however, with the 8:30 release of the second-quarter preliminary Chain Deflator and GDP, and the 10:30 release of August's Revised Michigan Sentiment. Earlier this week, a French minister quantified the effect he expected rising crude to have on the French GDP, saying that if crude reached $50/barrel and stayed at that level, he expected the GDP gain to decrease by one percent. During much of the second quarter, crude futures were retracing gains and hadn't approached $40.00, so that preliminary GDP might not yet show the effect of increasing crude costs. Crude futures for September delivery increased from the March 31 close at $33.65 to the June 30 close at $37.14. However, Japan's shocking Q2 GDP number certainly could make markets jittery, concerned that the U.S. could be in for a similar downside surprise. That's especially true since June's trade balance, released last week, showed that the gap had widened to a record $55.8 billion, with prices paid for crude oil and other industrial supplies showing up as one of the factors in that increasing deficit. Perhaps those crude costs earlier this summer, although minimal by comparison to today's costs, were still high enough to impact the GDP figure, too, some might wonder. That widening trade balance last week also revealed that exports had decreased. Upon the release of that number, some began speculating that growth estimates for the U.S. economy might require revision. The too-low estimate for June's trade gap had probably been folded into the calculations for economic growth, some commented. Forecasts for the preliminary GDP are for 2.8 percent, a small decrease from the previous 3.0 percent. Estimates for the preliminary Chain Deflator are for a flat 3.2 percent, and no change in expected in the revised Michigan Sentiment number, either, according to one source. Monday begins a week that's been bearish for six out of the last seven years, with drops in the major indices averaging more than 3.5 percent. We begin that week with weekly charts showing beautifully completed morning-star reversal signals. Switching back and forth from weekly, daily, and intraday charts show differing pictures for the indices, so that one could form wildly differing market outlooks. Weekly says up. Daily bar charts say up, but maybe with pullback first. Daily nested Keltner charts suggest that the two S&P's, at least, are nearly jammed up against next strong resistance. Facing Friday's possible GDP downside surprise and uncertainty over what will happen with crude costs, trade carefully during this traditionally bearish week, prepared for a rollover into shoulders for potential inverse H&S formations or for moves up through to the tops of the descending regression channels on daily charts. Be prepared to jump out of the way if your bias is proved wrong and indices head the other direction. ================================================ Market Sentiment ================================================ End of Summer - J. Brown It has been an interesting summer thus far. June was strong. July was terrible and August has just been plain volatile. If we use Memorial Day as the unofficial start of summer then we haven't moved very far. The Dow Industrials are only down 78 points from May 28th. The NASDAQ looks a lot worse because July was so painful. The NASDAQ Composite is down 148 points from Memorial Day. Meanwhile the S&P 500, which better represents the market as a whole, is down about 22 points for the summer. That's really not too bad considering the carnage from July 1st through the first week of August. During the same time period crude oil has risen 21.6% from May 28th through Friday's close (using the recently expired September contract). Crude is up almost 34% from its June lows, where stocks peaked. Oil continues to be the main story affecting the markets and it almost hit $50 a barrel on Friday morning as fighting raged in Najaf and investors responded to stories late Thursday of Iraqi oil company buildings being burnt down by militants. Fortunately, oil began to subside as the weekend approached and stocks pushed higher into the close. The question now is what are investors feeling? The recent rally has produced some positive bullish reversals in a number of stocks and indices. Is it a new bullish entry point? Or will it become a new lower high in the market's seven-week downtrend. The bounce from 10,000 in the Industrials on Friday is encouraging but the S&P 500's inability to breakout and close over the 1100 level is equally discouraging. If you look at the volatility indices they have all fallen sharply from their recent highs indicating that investors are feeling more confident (a.k.a. bullish) on stocks. Friday's market internals were certainly positive. Advancers outpaced decliners by 21 to 6 on the NYSE and almost 22 to 8 on the NASDAQ. Up volume outweighed down volume on both exchanges but overall volume was pretty light. Odds are volume will continue to be light until after Labor day. On Thursday I noted that most of the professionals were echoing comments made by Jim a couple of weeks ago that there really isn't any reason for stocks to rally before Labor Day. Yes, we could see an oversold bounce but any meaningful uptrend is likely to remain absent. We still have another week of Olympics but the real threat is the upcoming Republican National Convention in New York City that begins a week from Monday. The temptation for terrorists to strike at both the President's political party and the financial capital of the world New York City has to be a big one. Whether anything happens or not the threat of an event could easily keep a lid on stocks. Volume in the markets is expected to dry up and shrivel away during the week of the RNC. Yet that's still a week away. This coming week doesn't offer us any reprieve either. Stocks are starting to look bullish with the bounce from August 16th but the Stock Trader's Almanac has bad news for us. As reported earlier the Almanac states that the last five days of August have been extremely painful 6 out of the last 7 years. The average loss in the Dow is -4.0%, on the S&P 500 it's -3.8% and on the NASDAQ it's -3.5%. If the markets follow this historical trend then the end of August could witness the Industrials near 9700, the S&P 500 near 1056 and the NASDAQ near 1775. Of course if you're feeling optimistic you could round the numbers up a bit and just look for the major indices to retest their August lows. Then if you're feeling really optimistic imagine the whole scenario as an opportunity for a big double-bottom to lead us into the fall. Unfortunately, this is all just conjecture and what-if's. The facts are that we still have to face the month of September, which has historically been the WORST month of the year for all three indices. Now we could see stocks buck this trend if crude oil suddenly reverses on us but that's a big if right now. Investors need to shed their personal bias on the markets and consider the following. Not only are we facing some painful historical trends but record high oil prices, rising terror fears, concerns over a slowing economy and major uncertainty over the upcoming Presidential election do not nurture a bullish environment for stock prices. Bulls say the markets usually need a wall of worry to climb. Well they've got one and it's looking pretty steep. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9230 Current : 10110 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 9999 50-dma: 10144 200-dma: 10229 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 983 Current : 1098 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1079 50-dma: 1099 200-dma: 1109 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1256 Current : 1366 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1334 50-dma: 1392 200-dma: 1442 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 16.00 –0.96 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 16.30 –0.97 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 23.06 –0.85 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.95 1,049,280 1,001,436 Equity Only 0.72 784,646 566,482 OEX 1.07 82,678 88,318 QQQ 1.20 90,233 107,960 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 54.0 + 1 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 29.0 + 2 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 46.7 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 49.0 + 1 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 46.0 + 1 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 0.66 10-dma: 1.00 21-dma: 1.27 55-dma: 1.24 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 2147 2189 Decliners 650 824 New Highs 87 35 New Lows 13 26 Up Volume 1183M 967M Down Vol. 866M 347M Total Vol. 1439M 1330M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/17/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 There has been very little change in the commercial traders' positions. They remain slightly net short while small traders are net long (bullish). Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 07/27/04 397,354 422,914 (25,560) (3.1%) 08/03/04 401,619 419,429 (17,810) (2.2%) 08/10/04 397,576 419,734 (22,158) (2.7%) 08/17/04 398,472 416,109 (17,637) (2.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/27/04 135,136 90,433 44,703 19.8% 08/03/04 128,510 88,833 39,677 18.3% 08/10/04 135,689 93,897 41,792 18.2% 08/17/04 138,550 97,792 40,758 17.2% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 In the e-mini contracts we see commercial traders upping both their long and short positions but they remain net bearish. Small traders have done the same by increasing positions overall and they have increased their bullish sentiment. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 07/27/04 337,615 429,477 ( 91,862) (12.0%) 08/03/04 340,053 428,736 ( 88,683) (11.5%) 08/10/04 369,547 441,055 ( 71,508) ( 8.8%) 08/17/04 404,065 457,372 ( 53,307) ( 6.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/27/04 186,211 68,930 117,281 46.0% 08/03/04 195,105 68,717 126,388 47.9% 08/10/04 179,940 89,239 90,701 33.7% 08/17/04 192,939 92,361 100,578 35.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders have increased both their longs and shorts in the NDX but shorts made a stronger comeback. Commercial traders remain net bullish but the strength of their sentiment is decreasing at least as of Aug. 17th. Small traders have turned sharply bullish with a big switch in positions. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 07/27/04 43,042 35,935 7,107 9.0% 08/03/04 42,771 36,863 5,908 7.4% 08/10/04 43,968 38,351 5,617 6.8% 08/17/04 44,743 41,535 3,208 3.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/27/04 14,543 14,518 25 0.0% 08/03/04 8,995 13,901 (4,906) (21.4%) 08/10/04 10,081 10,858 ( 777) ( 3.7%) 08/17/04 12,256 8,352 3,904 18.9% Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders are at a virtual standstill during the latest period and remain net bullish on the Industrials. Naturally small traders are making the opposite bet and have turned more bearish. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 07/27/04 27,577 21,427 6,150 12.5% 08/03/04 30,118 25,029 5,089 9.2% 08/10/04 30,634 22,994 7,640 14.2% 08/17/04 30,271 22,809 7,462 14.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 07/27/04 5,310 6,099 ( 789) ( 6.9%) 08/03/04 4,325 5,212 ( 887) ( 9.3%) 08/10/04 6,450 8,488 (2,038) (13.6%) 08/17/04 4,388 7,089 (2,701) (23.5%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ----------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Gold to Supercomputers and more! Anglogold - AU - close: 36.55 change: +0.85 WHAT TO WATCH: It's been a lustrous week for gold and gold stocks. The XAU gold & silver index has rallied past major resistance just as gold surges to new four-month highs above resistance at $412 an ounce. Shares of AU have followed the rally and broken out over the $35.00 level and its exponential 200-dma near $35.75. This looks like an aggressive entry point but traders might want to look for a dip before considering plays. The next hurdle for AU is the simple 200-dma near $38.65. --- Silicon Storage - SSTI - close: 6.21 change: +0.29 WHAT TO WATCH: The SOX semiconductor index was one of the worst technology performers on Friday but that didn't stop SSTI from adding almost 5%. The climb back over the $6.00 mark is impressive and shares are challenging the top edge of its descending channel dating back to April. Aggressive traders might want to consider a breakout over the channel near $6.50 as a potential entry point. Watch out for possible resistance at $7.55 and $8.00. --- Cray Inc - CRAY - close: 3.89 change: +0.36 WHAT TO WATCH: The name CRAY brings of images of massive supercomputers. CRAY is still in the business but its share price hasn't been too super. The stock crashed from $5.00 to $3.50 back in July after missing earnings. Now the sideways consolidation is over and CRAY is broken into the gap. We think CRAY might be able to fill the gap but it needs to breakout over the $4.00 mark first. This would be a very high risk, speculatively play but readers could use a trigger over $4.00 and target $5.00. --- Hutchinson Tech. - HTCH - close: 24.55 change: +0.44 WHAT TO WATCH: Disk drive maker HTCH is on the move. Shares have rallied sharply this past week to breakout through its five-month old descending trendline of resistance and its 40 and 50-dma's. This could be the start of a new change in direction for HTCH but we'd want to see the stock climb past the $25.00 level. Watch out for potential resistance at its simple 200-dma near $28.00. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- MLI $38.99 +0.84 - The recent breakout and bounce from $38.00 has pushed MLI to new five-year highs. It looks like a great entry point but volume is very low on this stock and shares have some resistance near $40 dating back to 1998. ROK $38.30 +0.42 - Defense contractor ROK is breaking out to new three-year highs over $38.00-38.25. NPSP $21.75 +1.23 - The rally continues for NPSP. If you bought the dip to $20.00 kudos to you! Be sure you manage your risk carefully. The next challenge is the 100-dma near $21.91. MAS $32.26 +0.44 - MAS continues to climb and has broken out to new multi-year highs but is nearing resistance at $33 dating back to the late 90s. ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 08-22-2004 section 2 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Tech Stocks Bullish Play Updates: TKLC Bearish Play Updates: SWIR Active Trader (Non-tech) New Bullish Plays: ELY, SBUX Bullish Play Updates: NYB Bearish Play Updates: OSI High Risk/Reward Bullish Play Updates: MACR Bearish Play Updates: CTMI Stock Splits Announcements: CATY ================================================================== Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section ================================================================== ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- Tekelec - TKLC - close: 18.29 change: +0.20 stop: 16.99 The bounce from support continues for TKLC. The stock actually managed a 1.1 percent rally on Friday on top of announcing a $56 million acquisition. TKLC said it would spend cash and stock to buy privately held Steleus Group Inc in an effort to enhance its "capacities and expand its global presence" according to the Reuters article. The transaction is expected to hit Q4 earnings by 1-to-2 cents while adding 1-to-2 cents in FY05. Traders have a couple of choices for new entry points. Momentum traders can look for a new relative high over $18.50 as an entry or readers can look for a dip and bounce from the $17.50-17.75 range. Our target remains at $20.00 while the P&F target is $23.00. One note of caution - if TKLC doesn't keep this rally alive we're going to suspect that the stock is building a bearish H&S pattern more easily seen on its weekly chart. Annotated Chart: Picked on August 18 at $18.40 Gain since picked: - 0.11 Earnings Date 07/22/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 722 thousand -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Sierra Wireless - SWIR - close: 23.88 chg: +0.44 stop: 26.49 SWIR was a notable under-performer during the first part of the week. Reluctantly the stock began to rebound on Thursday and Friday. Now SWIR is testing minor resistance at its simple 10- dma. The stock is so oversold that even this minor bounce is producing bullish signals in its stochastics. We suspect that any bounce here will only prove to be a new entry point for bearish positions. We'll suggest any failed rally under the $25.00 mark as a new entry point. Our target at the May lows near $21.25 remains. The P&F chart remains very bearish with a $13 target. No change in our stop loss at $26.49. Annotated Chart: Picked on August 11 at $25.10 Gain since picked: - 1.22 Earnings Date 07/21/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million ================================================================== Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section ================================================================== ========= NEW PLAYS ========= ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Callaway Golf - ELY - close: 11.83 change: +0.26 stop: 11.25 Company Description: Callaway Golf Company makes and sells Big Bertha. Metal Woods and Irons, including ERC. Fusion. Drivers and Fairway Woods, Great Big Bertha. II Titanium Drivers and Fairway Woods, Great Big Bertha II 415 Titanium Drivers, Big Bertha Titanium Drivers and Big Bertha Stainless Steel Fairway Woods, Hawk Eye. VFT. Tungsten Injected(TM) Titanium Irons, Big Bertha Stainless Steel Irons, Steelhead. X-16. and Steelhead X-16 Pro Series Stainless Steel Irons, the Game Enjoyment System(TM) of GES(TM) Golf Clubs, Callaway Golf Forged+ Wedges and Callaway Golf Forged Wedges, and Callaway Golf Tour Blue(TM) Putters. Callaway Golf Company also makes and sells Odyssey. Putters, including White Hot., TriHot., DFX., Dual Force. and 2-Ball Putters. Callaway Golf Company makes and sells the Callaway Golf. HX. Tour Balls, HX Blue and HX Red Balls, Big Bertha(TM) Blue and Big Bertha Red Balls, and the Warbird. Balls. Callaway Golf also owns and operates The Top- Flite Golf Company, a wholly owned subsidiary that includes the Top-Flite. and Ben Hogan. brands and Bettinardi Putters. The Trade In! Trade Up!(TM) program is owned and operated by Callaway Golf Company. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: The fundamentals stink but ELY may turn out to be a bullish candidate after all. Back in June the company issued an earnings warning and said that Q2 sales would fall significantly under analysts' expectations. Management also said they would not hit their full year numbers. The stock crashed from $15 to $12. Since then ELY has been consolidating mostly sideways under $12.00. However, the last four weeks have certainly had a bullish tint to them. The stock is back over its 40 and 50-dma's and is nearing bottom of the gap resistance near $12.00-$12.25. Whether it makes sense or not stocks do have a habit of "filling the gap". ELY has a sizeable gap down and if it breaks upward we could see it climb back toward $14 or even $15. Point-and-figure chart traders will quickly point out that ELY's P&F chart is extremely bearish. We don't disagree but ELY could produce a huge bounce and still remain bearish. Now we feel it's important to use a TRIGGER over resistance because with ELY just under the $12.00 mark it's a tempting place to short it. We'll use a TRIGGER at $12.30 so ELY will have to climb over the bottom of the gap at $12.25. Once started we'll use a stop loss at $11.25. Annotated Chart: Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 07/22/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million -- Starbucks - SBUX - close: 45.05 change: +0.39 stop: 42.75 Company Description: Starbucks Coffee Company is the leading retailer, roaster and brand of specialty coffee in the world, with more than 8,000 retail locations in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific Rim. The Company is committed to offering the highest quality coffee and the Starbucks Experience while conducting its business in ways that help foster social, environmental and economic benefits for communities in which it does business. (source: company press release) Why We Like It: We've been bullish on SBUX for months. It's been a great momentum play but we missed the entry point back in May when it broke out over the $40.00 level. Now we feel the recent pull back and bounce from $42.50 above its simple 100-dma is a gift for bullish investors. Technicals are starting to suggest the same thing with its MACD very close to a new buy signal. We want to get long and target a run toward $50.00 but SBUX still has some resistance at its 40 and 21-dma's just overhead. We'll wait for some confirmation with the breakout and use a TRIGGER at $45.51 to open the play. Until SBUX trades at this level we'll sit out. However, once open we'll use a stop loss at $42.75. Annotated Chart: Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER Gain since picked: + 0.00 Earnings Date 07/21/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million ============ PLAY UPDATES ============ -------------------- Bullish Play Updates -------------------- New York Cmmty Bank - NYB - close: 20.34 change: +0.13 stop: 19.49 After spending several days on the watch list we decided to promote NYB to the play list after it broke out above resistance at the $20.00 mark. The stock's slow and steady ascent from its July lows is encouraging and we believe NYB can trade to the $22.00 region. Traders can also find encouragement in the BKX banking index's bullish breakout above its simple 200-dma on Friday. Traders bought the dip on Thursday when NYB tested the $20.00 level as support. We will admit this is somewhat aggressive since the P&F chart is still bearish. A move over $21.00 will produce a new "buy" signal. Annotated Chart: Picked on August 18 at $20.39 Gain since picked: - 0.05 Earnings Date 07/21/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million -------------------- Bearish Play Updates -------------------- Outback Steakhouse - OSI - close: 39.14 chg: +0.89 stop: 40.01 To be honest we didn't know that OSI had so many stores in Florida. The company has more than 12 percent of its outlets in Florida and all of them, including some in the Carolina's, were shut down due to mandatory evacuations. The company said they lost about 130 operating days and upwards of $2 million in revenues due to the store closings. What's really surprising, considering this news, is the rebound in the stock price. Yes, it is true that stocks tend to move with the markets and the markets were bouncing this past week but we didn't expect OSI to rebound back above the $39 level. This is a significant warning sign for us but we're going to leave the play open with the stop loss at $40.01. Readers considering new positions can look for a failed rally under $39.50 or a new drop under $38.00. Until then we would not suggest new positions. Annotated Chart: Picked on August 09th at $38.99 Gain since picked: + 0.15 Earnings Date 07/22/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 629 thousand ================================================================== HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section ================================================================== ========= NEW PLAYS ========= ----------------- New Bullish Plays ----------------- Macromedia - MACR - close: 19.53 change: +0.23 stop: 18.00 Our speculative buy the bottom play is holding in there. MACR seems to be struggling a little bit with its simple 21-dma but we're encouraged by the rebound on Friday morning. There appeared to be some buyers supporting MACR near $19.45-19.47 throughout much of Friday's session. More conservative traders interested in this play might want to wait for MACR to breakout over round-number resistance at $20.00 before initiating positions. Annotated Chart: Picked on August 18th $19.78 Gain since picked: - 0.25 Earnings Date 07/28/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million ----------------- New Bearish Plays ----------------- CTI Molecular Imaging - CTMI - cls: 9.91 chg: +0.21 stop: 11.01 CTMI has managed a weak oversold bounce and is consolidating its losses under resistance at the round-number, psychological $10.00 mark. As long as it remains under $10.00 bears should be okay. Any bounce over $10 and we'll become concerned and consider exiting the play. At this point we would not consider new bearish positions until CTMI traded back under the $9.50 level. Annotated Chart: Picked on August 15 at $ 9.67 Gain since picked: + 0.24 Earnings Date 08/05/04 (confirmed) Average Daily Volume: 322 thousand ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- CATY announces a 2:1 split This morning before the opening bell Cathay General Bancorp (NASDAQ:CATY) announced that its Board of Directors had approved a 2-for-1 stock split of its common shares. The split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend to be paid on September 28th, 2004 to shareholders on record as of September 13th. About the company: Cathay General Bancorp is the one-bank holding company for Cathay Bank, a California state-chartered bank. Founded in 1962, Cathay Bank offers a wide range of financial services. Cathay Bank currently operates 32 branches in California, three branches in New York State, two branches in Massachusetts, one in Houston, Texas, one in Washington State, and representative offices in Hong Kong and Shanghai, China. In addition, the Bank's subsidiaries, Cathay Investment Company and GBC Investment & Consulting Company, Inc., both maintain an office in Taipei. (source: company press release) ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Weekend Edition 08-22-2004 section 3 of 3 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section three: Market Watch for Week of August 23rd, 2004 - Major Earnings - Stock Splits - Economic Reports Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================= ========================================== Market Watch for the week of August 23rd ========================================== ----------------- Earnings Calendar ----------------- Symbol Co Date Comment EPS Est ------------------------- MONDAY ------------------------------- TOY Toys R Us Mon, Aug 23 Before the Bell -0.04 ------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------ BMO Bank Of Montreal Tue, Aug 24 During the Market N/A HRB H&R Block, Inc. Tue, Aug 24 After the Bell -0.05 HNZ H.J. Heinz Company Tue, Aug 24 Before the Bell 0.55 HUG Hughes Supply Tue, Aug 24 After the Bell 1.16 MRX Medicis Tue, Aug 24 After the Bell 0.36 RGS Regis Corporation Tue, Aug 24 Before the Bell 0.59 STOSY Santos Ltd. Tue, Aug 24 -----N/A----- N/A SMTC Semtech Tue, Aug 24 After the Bell 0.21 TKA Telekom Austria AG Tue, Aug 24 Before the Bell N/A TTC Toro Tue, Aug 24 Before the Bell 1.28 ------------------------ WEDNESDAY ----------------------------- ADCT ADC Wed, Aug 25 After the Bell 0.01 BTH Blyth Inc. Wed, Aug 25 -----N/A----- 0.23 BCM Can Imp Bank CmmerceWed, Aug 25 -----N/A----- N/A DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Wed, Aug 25 After the Bell 0.26 SJM J. M. Smucker Co Wed, Aug 25 Before the Bell 0.56 MIK Michaels Stores Wed, Aug 25 -----N/A----- 0.40 NDSN Nordson Wed, Aug 25 -----N/A----- 0.47 REXMY REXAM PLC Wed, Aug 25 -----N/A----- N/A TOL Sulzer Wed, Aug 25 -----N/A----- N/A WSM Wi-Lan Inc Wed, Aug 25 After the Bell -0.05 ------------------------- THUSDAY ----------------------------- BFb Brown-Forman Corp Thu, Aug 26 Before the Bell 0.38 CHS Chico's FAS Thu, Aug 26 After the Bell 0.38 DG Dollar General Corp.Thu, Aug 26 Before the Bell 0.20 OTE Hellenic Telecomm Thu, Aug 26 Before the Bell N/A JOYG Joy Global Inc. Thu, Aug 26 Before the Bell 0.32 KWD Kellwood Company Thu, Aug 26 After the Bell 0.35 AHO Koninklijke Ahold NVThu, Aug 26 -----N/A----- N/A PDCO Patterson Dental Thu, Aug 26 -----N/A----- 0.59 SCO Scor Thu, Aug 26 Before the Bell N/A SFD Smithfield Foods Thu, Aug 26 Before the Bell 0.47 TECD Tech Data Corp Thu, Aug 26 After the Bell 0.49 TKS Tomkins PLC Thu, Aug 26 -----N/A----- N/A TD Toronto Dominion BnkThu, Aug 26 -----N/A----- N/A VIP Vimpel Comm Thu, Aug 26 -----N/A----- N/A ------------------------- FRIDAY ------------------------------- PNY Piedmont Natural GasFri, Aug 27 -----N/A----- -0.40 RY Royal Bank Of CanadaFri, Aug 27 -----N/A----- N/A ---------------------------------------------- Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks... ---------------------------------------------- Symbol Co Name Ratio Payable Executable HTLD Heartland Express 3:2 Aug 20th Aug 23rd TOX MEDTOX Scientific, Inc 3:2 Aug 20th Aug 23rd IVX IVAX Corporation 5:4 Aug 24th Aug 25th ZBRA Zebra Tech Corp 3:2 Aug 25th Aug 26th WOOF VCA Antech, Inc 2:1 Aug 25th Aug 26th PGTV Pegasus Comm Corp 2:1 Aug 26th Aug 27th BAC Bank of America 2:1 Aug 27th Aug 28th CFC Countrywide Financial Corp2:1 Aug 30th Aug 31st VNBC Vineyard National Bancorp 2:1 Aug 30th Aug 31st HOC Holly Corp 2:1 Aug 30th Aug 31st TRBS Texas Regional Bancshares 3:2 Aug 30th Aug 31st ENSI EnergySouth, Inc 3:2 Sep 1st Sep 2nd CHD Church & Dwight Co. Inc 3:2 Sep 1st Sep 2nd TCB TCF Financial Corp 2:1 Sep 3rd Sep 6th -------------------------- Economic Reports This Week -------------------------- The Olympics will move into its second week but Wall Street will look with wary eyes on the upcoming Republican National Convention that starts a week from Monday. This week we'll see new and used home sales, the preliminary GDP numbers and revised sentiment figure. ============================================================== -For- ---------------- Monday, 08/23/04 ---------------- None ----------------- Tuesday, 08/24/04 ----------------- Existing Home Sales (DM) Jul Forecast: 6.80M Previous: 6.95M ------------------- Wednesday, 08/25/04 ------------------- Durable Orders (BB) Jul Forecast: 1.0% Previous: 0.9% New Home Sales (DM) Jul Forecast: 1292K Previous: 1326K Federal Reserve Governor Guynn speaks on U.S. Economy ------------------ Thursday, 08/26/04 ------------------ Initial Claims (BB) 08/21 Forecast: N/A Previous: 331K Help-Wanted Index (DM) Jul Forecast: 38 Previous: 38 ---------------- Friday, 08/27/04 ---------------- GDP-Prel. (BB) Q2 Forecast: 2.8% Previous: 3.0% Chain Deflator-Prel. (BB) Q2 Forecast: 3.2% Previous: 3.2% Mich Sentiment-Rev. (DM) Aug Forecast: 94.0 Previous: 94.0 Definitions: DM= During the Market BB= Before the Bell AB= After the Bell NA= Not Available ====================================================== Trading Ideas ====================================================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change PTR Petrochina Co Ltd (ADS) 48.78 +0.42 COP Conocophillips 74.16 +0.20 CNQ Canadian Natural Res Ltd 33.21 -0.68 CEO Cnooc Ltd (ADR) 48.19 +1.24 BBY Best Buy Co Inc 48.73 +0.25 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- MYL Mylan Laboratories Inc 16.89 -0.31 HOTT Hot Topic Inc 16.24 +0.34 PDQ Prime Hospitality Corp 11.97 +0.01 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- NEM Newmont Mining Corp 44.38 +0.35 SYMC Symantec Corp 48.04 +0.28 INRU Intuit Inc 41.09 +0.62 BJS BJ Services Co 46.93 +0.85 HAR Harman Internat Ind Inc 93.89 +4.19 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- CVX Chevrontexaco Corp 74.18 +1.08 ASD American Standard Cos 37.41 +0.24 PNW Pinnacle West Capital Cp 41.39 -0.05 HRL Hormel Foods Corp 26.00 -0.49 AMSG Amsung Corp Common 20.78 +0.21 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- CMBC Community Bancorp Inc 25.00 -0.08 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2001-2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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