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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 08/29/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-29-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap: Quiet Before the Storm
Market Sentiment: The RNC approaches
Watch List: Electronics to Biotech

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 8-27         WE 8-20         WE 8-13         WE 8-06
DOW    10195.01 + 84.91 10110.1 +284.79 9825.35 + 10.02 -324.38
Nasdaq  1862.09 + 31.07 1831.02 + 73.80 1757.22 – 19.67 -110.47
S&P-100  540.88 +  4.84  536.04 + 15.32  520.72 -  1.11 - 15.84
S&P-500 1107.77 +  9.42 1098.35 + 33.55 1064.80 +  0.83 - 37.75
W5000  10755.02 +106.22 10648.8 +344.09 10304.6 -  3.18 -393.81
SOX      382.34 -  3.66  386.00 + 19.35  366.65 – 20.23 - 29.55
RUT      551.67 +  3.75  547.92 + 30.53  517.39 -  2.26 - 31.64
TRAN    3108.80 + 17.93 3090.87 +123.95 2966.92 +  0.84 -145.61
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

Quiet Before the Storm
by Jim Brown

Friday morning continued the pattern set on Thursday and
was Boring with a capital B. Volume was non existent and
reports from the NYSE compared it to a ghost town. The
bad news bulls were still circulating with rising support
just under the bid but there was no interest in chasing
the price. Actually there was no interest in any trading.
Buyers waited patiently for dips and sellers were absent
along with the volume.

Dow Chart – Daily


Nasdaq Chart


SPX Chart


SOX Chart


Russell Chart




Friday started slow with a GDP report that came in as
expected with a drop to +2.8% for the second quarter.
This makes it the weakest quarter since Q1-2003 which
only grew +1.9%. The headline number does not show the
positive internal changes with consumer spending moving
higher from the initial report to +1.6%. Still not strong
but better than expected. That is the lowest gain in
household consumption since the end of 2002. Business
Spending and Personal Expenditures both rose sharply
from the initial report. Dragging down the headline
number was exports and a dramatic slowdown in auto
production.

The GDP revision underlines the strong drop after three
quarters of strong growth. We did however managed to
show continued growth despite the weak quarter end. This
would suggest Q3, not normally a strong quarter anyway,
will follow in the footsteps of Q2 with sub 3% growth.
With corporate America holding their breath until the
election is over the 4Q is likely to be power packed in
Nov/Dec and that will produce something near +4% growth
to close the year. The challenge remains the high oil
prices and their dragging impact on the economy. If oil
does move lower with the resolution of some fighting in
Iraq and additional Russian production then the worst
may be behind us.

The Michigan Sentiment final came in at 95.9 and up
sharply from the initial reading of 94.0. This is still
down from July's 96.7 but the rebound from the initial
reading is moving in the right direction. Expectations
declined to 88.2 from 91.2 but present conditions rose
to 107.9 from 105.2. Analysts felt consumers were more
optimistic when gas prices did not go higher when oil
was hitting $48. There is a perception that gas prices
today should reflect the current oil prices and in
reality there is a significant lead time before the
high oil reaches the refineries and then the gas stations.
Either way consumers felt better about current conditions
and the lack of any terrorist event in Athens probably
helped that feeling. Obviously an event in New York
would be significantly depressing to sentiment.

The New York City area has been putting terrorist plans
in place for the convention for over a week with street
closings, random vehicle searches and setting up for
checkpoints into the city and convention area. The
NYSE has disaster plans in place and the floor will
only be manned at half staff or less with half the
traders working from remote locations. One desk with
30 traders is reportedly only going to operate with
only eight from the NYSE floor. There is significant
fear and caution in NYC that was not reflected in
trading as we closed the week ahead of the convention.

The attendees at the Jackson Hole Conference probably
wish they could stay there for all of next week to
avoid the extreme security and the risk for some of
returning to NYC. However, they may be feeling a little
stressed after the Greenspan speech today. He opened
his speech expressing concern about the elderly
dependency ratio. That is the number of older adults
to younger adults. That ratio has been rising for the
last 150 years and is about to spike sharply higher.
The growth of the working age population is currently
+1% per year but is expected to slow to only 1/4% by
2035 according to Greenspan. During that same time
the percentage of the population over 65, currently
12%, will expand to 20% by 2035. He went on to discuss
the impact on various economies but his real target
was social security and the problem ahead.

His premise was that the disability factor for people
over 65 was dropping rapidly as people reaching 65
were healthier and more active than in the past. He
said workers were working smarter and not harder and
their bodies were not wearing out as quickly as when
we were primarily an agricultural society where manual
laborers composed 75% of the workforce. With the
population rapidly aging, with baby boomers heading
into retirement, the system was going into fiscal arrest
in the very near future. Workers are retiring sooner
and living longer thereby requiring more contributions
from younger workers to support them. This is nothing
new to most investors and as Greenspan himself ages
he tends to talk about the problem more.

His two solutions for this problem were allowing more
immigrants into the country to inject liquidity into
the social security system AND/OR raising the retirement
age to prevent a system bankruptcy. He also suggested
the Federal government begin saving money instead of
spending it but we all know how likely that is. He
suggested making the decision to change the retirement
age quickly so those facing retirement shortly will
have time to plan for additional years of employment
and a higher rate of savings to offset the loss of
benefits from social security.

I don't know about you but for someone planning on
collecting at least some of the fortune I have paid
into social security over the years the prospect of
waiting until I am 70 is not pleasant. While I have
never expected the government to support me in my
retirement I would like to see some return for my
40+ years of contributions to date. Everyone reading
this probably understands the problem but are not
going to rush out and volunteer to forego their
social security payments and work an extra five years
just for the heck of it. Do I mention that you would
continue contributing to social security while you
continued working? I understand why Greenspan is
constantly posing these tough economic questions but
I seriously doubt any politician is going to make it
part of their platform. They would get about as many
votes as a leper with Aids on the Bachelorette would
get roses. I doubt Greenspan's words fell on fertile
ground but at least he did the right thing. That is
he did not say anything about the market that would
blunt the current uptrend. No news is good news in
his case.

Monday was the lightest volume day of the year with
only 2.75 billion shares traded. Friday was even worse
with only 2.23 billion shares traded across all markets.
As the lightest day of the year the potential for a
real disaster loomed large all day but never came to
pass. The underlying bid continued to grow despite
volume being so slow watching charts paint was almost
painful. All the indexes but the SOX finished positive
for the week. Considering last weeks rally this was
an almost impossible feat ahead of this weekends
event risk.

What event risk? I know, it appears the press are
the only ones worried. The bullish undertones all
week suggest there is little fear in investor minds.
With the Democratic convention over and the Olympics
finishing on Sunday and neither having any problems
other than long lines at security checkpoints the
event risk fear has left the market.

I have been expecting a post convention rally but I
also expected some more weakness over the last two
weeks. I suggested a couple weeks ago to buy the
dips as we waited out the Olympics on minimal volume
but reality definitely exceeded my expectations. It
appears everyone had the same game plan and we closed
not only at the highs for the week but the highs for
the month right in front of the convention. The stock
Traders Almanac says six of the last seven years has
seen a down market the last five days of August. That
string is about to be broken with only two days to go
in the month. It appears the fear of the Olympics
prompted those that wanted to exit to bail early and
that broke the trend. The Dow traded down to strong
support at 9800 and the risk takers stepped up to
the table.

Now, if conventional wisdom is to be believed the next
two weeks should be bullish assuming the convention
concludes successfully. Since the market exists to
confound the maximum number of traders on any given
day it almost makes me wonder if we are not being set
up for a big surprise. I don't know what would cause
it because all the negatives are already known. It
is almost the perfect storm in reverse. We know earnings
are going to be weak for Q3. We know the Fed is still
going to raise rates again on Sept-21st. We know the
economy is creeping along at a snails pace. We know
oil is not going back to $30 any time soon. We know
chip sales are weaker than expected and retail sales
are barely showing any gains. What is going to be the
big surprise that trumps this bullish advance? I pose
the question because I don't see one. The bulls have
the perfect wall of worry to climb and no mountains
in their path.

The setup is almost too perfect with the various
indexes closing almost exactly on critical resistance.
We were able to push right to the vertical limit but
not quite hard enough to produce a breakout. The
trap, I mean stage is set for a strong move but I
feel like the mouse in this picture. The setup is
perfect but I know there is a headache ahead somewhere.





For next week I plan on going with the flow. Monday
could be erratic on even lower volume until the actual
convention opens on Monday night. Tuesday could be a
strong day if there are no problems Monday night.

Unfortunately Tuesday is where it starts getting tricky.
This is a huge week for economic reports. That is fine
if they are all positive but this is the week for the
big guns. Tuesday is the NY-NAPM, PMI and Confidence.
Wednesday has August ISM, Construction Spending, Semi
Billings, Vehicle Sales and Mortgage Applications.
Thursday has Chain Store Sales, Monster Employment,
Jobless, Productivity and Factory Orders followed by
the Employment Report on Friday.

Obviously the key numbers are PMI, ISM and Jobs but the
entire week is a mine field of data. Adding to the jumble
is the Intel update on Thursday. Is inventory still
growing or did sales pick up? Only Craig Barrett knows
for sure and he will tell us on Thursday. I believe if
everything else is mildly positive investors will forgive
any Intel sins on Thursday.

Make no mistake there is still strong resistance just
overhead at Dow 10250, SPX 1120 and Nasdaq 1910. While
the majority of factors are pointing to a positive
week there is plenty of roadblocks up ahead. Lately
bulls have been scaling them with ease and I would
love to see that again for the third consecutive week
but with the Dow gaining +400 points in just the last
two weeks it makes me very cautious. Bullish but
cautious.

That makes my game plan for the week look like this. I
am going long over SPX 1111 (100 and 200 dma) and buying
any dips back to support levels at 1104 and 1095. I am
going to put on my helmet and be wary of any setups that
appear to good to be true. I will be leery of an opening
breakout over 1111 on Monday but will reluctantly tag
along. I would feel much better about a long entry if
I could see a little fear in the market and a decent
dip to buy but the market seldom does what I want.
Buckle those seatbelts and let's get ready for a ride.

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================

The RNC approaches
- J. Brown

This past week was certainly an interesting one.  Crude oil
abruptly changed direction and fell more than 7% from its highs
in a five-day losing streak.  Wal-Mart lowered its August sales
forecasts blaming Hurricane Charley and a slow back-to-school
season.  Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan not only
mentioned a potential housing bubble, a possible slow down in
Japan's economy, and a not so soft landing for China's economy
but he also suggested raising the retirement age and putting a
cap on social security benefits before the system goes bankrupt.

Friday's trading was extremely light and a prime example of what
we were likely to see next week as Wall Streeters leave town to
avoid the traffic jams and security checkpoints for the
Republican National Convention.  Despite the low volume Friday's
session was pretty bullish.  Networking, Broker-dealers and
airline stocks were the only sector indices to close in the red.
The Dow transports did close about four cents off unchanged.
Market internals looked pretty good.  Advancing stocks
overshadowed decliners 2-to-1 o the NYSE and 19 to 11 on the
NASDAQ.  Up volume was about double down volume on both
exchanges.

Next week Wall Street will be watching three things.  First and
foremost is oil.  This remains the leading influence.
Fortunately, as of the time of this article, the Iraq peace deal
in the city of Najaf, which was guided by recently returned
Shiite cleric Grand Ayatolla Ali al-Sistani, is still holding.
If we can see several days of peace (a.k.a. less violence than
usual) then the market's fears over oil disruptions may subside
even more.

The second major story investors will be watching is the
Republican National Convention in NYC, which begins Monday night.
So far the DNC was uneventful and the Olympics have been terror-
free so traders seem quietly optimistic that the RNC will go off
without any violence as well.  The RNC runs from Monday through
Thursday with President Bush speaking on Thursday night.  This
could keep stocks trading sideways until Friday morning but the
low volume could be a wild card as the remaining traders push
stocks around.

Unfortunately, we can't expect a relief rally on Friday until
after the economic reports, which is the third major story Wall
Street will be following.  There is a boatload of economic data
to be delivered with the most significant reports being the PMI,
ISM and August Jobs data.  The Jobs report comes out on Friday.
Right now economists are expecting growth of 139,000 jobs but
many are already discounting a miss due to the two hurricanes
that hit Florida and the east coast.

Caution is definitely the mood in the markets.  The current
short-term trend may be up but now the major indices are starting
to look overdue for a dip and the longer-term prevailing trend is
still down.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9233
Current     : 10195

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10049
 50-dma: 10160
200-dma: 10251



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  983
Current     : 1107

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1095
 50-dma: 1104
200-dma: 1111



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1280
Current     : 1388

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1364
 50-dma: 1404
200-dma: 1441



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 14.71 –0.20
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.83 -0.04
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.27 -0.33


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.92        478,110       439,606
Equity Only    0.73        362,855       266,495
OEX            1.03         14,555        15,065
QQQ            1.95         29,210        56,926


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          55.2    + 1     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    32.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   46.6    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       51.0    + 1     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       49.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 0.96
10-dma: 0.80
21-dma: 1.20
55-dma: 1.24


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1833      1880
Decliners     929      1101

New Highs      80        46
New Lows       13        35

Up Volume    663M      675M
Down Vol.    337M      279M

Total Vol.  1022M      979M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/24/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials have upped both their longs and shorts but remain
net bearish. Small traders have upped their shorts and pared
back their longs a bit but remain net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/03/04      401,619   419,429   (17,810)   (2.2%)
08/10/04      397,576   419,734   (22,158)   (2.7%)
08/17/04      398,472   416,109   (17,637)   (2.2%)
08/24/04      402,599   420,478   (17,879)   (2.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04      128,510    88,833    39,677    18.3%
08/10/04      135,689    93,897    41,792    18.2%
08/17/04      138,550    97,792    40,758    17.2%
08/24/04      135,151   100,351    34,800    14.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders have decreased their longs and increased
their shorts, which could be bad news for the S&P 500.  In
lockstep mirror-like fashion small traders are moving the
opposite direction than the "smart money".

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/03/04      340,053   428,736   ( 88,683)  (11.5%)
08/10/04      369,547   441,055   ( 71,508)  ( 8.8%)
08/17/04      404,065   457,372   ( 53,307)  ( 6.2%)
08/24/04      392,065   473,911   ( 81,846)  ( 9.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04      195,105     68,717   126,388    47.9%
08/10/04      179,940     89,239    90,701    33.7%
08/17/04      192,939     92,361   100,578    35.3%
08/24/04      211,995     76,184   135,811    47.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders have added to both their shorts and longs
but the end result was an increase in bullish sentiment on
the NDX.  Small traders are also bullish but have cut their
enthusiasm in half.  In essence small traders are beginning
to turn bearish, which in a contrarian sense is bullish.
Confused yet?

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04       42,771     36,863     5,908    7.4%
08/10/04       43,968     38,351     5,617    6.8%
08/17/04       44,743     41,535     3,208    3.7%
08/24/04       48,624     43,222     5,402    5.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04        8,995    13,901    (4,906)  (21.4%)
08/10/04       10,081    10,858    (  777)  ( 3.7%)
08/17/04       12,256     8,352     3,904    18.9%
08/24/04       11,666    10,068     1,598     7.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders remain bullish but have pared back their
longs a bit. Meanwhile small traders remain bearish but have also
hedged their enthusiasm a bit.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04       30,118    25,029    5,089       9.2%
08/10/04       30,634    22,994    7,640      14.2%
08/17/04       30,271    22,809    7,462      14.1%
08/24/04       28,919    23,658    5,261      10.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/03/04        4,325     5,212   (  887)   ( 9.3%)
08/10/04        6,450     8,488   (2,038)   (13.6%)
08/17/04        4,388     7,089   (2,701)   (23.5%)
08/24/04        5,052     7,214   (2,162)   (17.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Benchmark Electronic - BHE - close: 29.55 change: +1.04

WHAT TO WATCH: BHE appears to be breaking out from its three-
month trading range.  Friday's rally was on decent volume
considering how low the overall volume was that day.  We're
impressed with the breakout over $29.00 and its exponential 200-
dma.  This looks like an entry point but watch out for the simple
200-dma still overhead.

Chart=


---

Abgenix - ABGX - close: 9.97 change: +0.51

WHAT TO WATCH: ABGX climbed more than 5% on Friday and broke
through its simple 50-dma.  The stock has been climbing steadily
from its August lows under $8.00 and is now challenging
resistance at the $10.00 mark.  Consider the recent strength in
the BTK biotech index ABGX might be able to keep the momentum
alive.  The P&F chart is still bearish but it may be noteworthy
that its price objective has already been met.  If the stock
breaks out over the $10.00 level look for more resistance at $11
and then $12.

Chart=


---

QLogic Corp - QLGC - close: 26.21 change: +1.35

WHAT TO WATCH: QGLC seriously outperformed its peers on Friday
with a 5.4% rally on above average volume.  That's pretty
impressive considering it was the lowest volume day of the year.
There's been a lot of negative news out for the chip stocks
recently but a good majority of the stocks in the group are
actually rebounding not sinking!  QLGC is one of them and it has
broken its 2 1/2 month trend of lower highs.  This could be an
aggressive bull's entry point just watch out for Intel's mid-
quarter update on Thursday.

Chart=


---

SpectraLink - SLNK - close: 9.81 change: +0.70

WHAT TO WATCH: SLNK soared more than 7% on rising volume on
Friday and managed to breakout over its simple 40-dma. We don't
see any news to power the move and that makes us suspicious.
However, if the stock can breakout over round-number,
psychological resistance at the $10.00 mark it may be an entry
point for a "fill the gap" play.  Should this occur bulls can
target a run toward the top of the gap near $12.00 for a decent
gain.

Chart=



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=================================================================

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-29-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  None

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  Bullish Play updates:  AAPL, TKLC,
  Bullish Play updates:  GLW, SWIR,
  Closed Bearish Plays:  TXN

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  New Bearish Plays:     IGT
  Bullish Play updates:  ELY, NYB

High Risk/Reward
  Bullish Play updates: MACR
  Bearish Play updates: CTMI

Stock Splits
  Announcements:       PNY


==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

------------
Play Updates
------------


  Bullish Play updates
  ---------------------

Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 34.35 change: -0.31 stop: 31.50

Our new AAPL long play is off to a strong start.  The stock
surged about 5 percent on Thursday to breakout over the $34.00
level.  Shares saw some profit taking on Friday but traders
bought the dip at $34.00 as old resistance became new support.
The company got a lot of press on Friday after Hewlett-Packard
unveiled a new Ipod, which is a result of its partnership with
AAPL.  Plus, brokers were making positive comments about AAPL's
Itunes online music store.  We're going to suggest a target in
the $37-38 range and we'll leave our stop at $31.50 for now.
FYI: P&F chart traders will be happy to note the bullish triangle
breakout in AAPL's chart.  This is typically a very successful
pattern to play.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 25 at $33.05
Gain since picked:     + 1.30
Earnings Date        07/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     6.8 million
Chart =



---


Tekelec - TKLC - close: 18.25 change: +0.20 stop: 17.95

TKLC had been doing great until Thursday's unexplained drop from
$19 to $18.  We still don't know what caused the sell-off and
volume wasn't anything to write home about.  Shares did bounce
from the $18 level on Friday but we remain somewhat cautious.  If
you consider that our stop loss is at $17.95 this could be a
lower-risk entry point for new bullish positions.  However, we
would want to make sure the stock was going our direction.
Waiting for a move over $18.50 may be a good idea.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 18 at $18.40
Gain since picked:     - 0.15
Earnings Date        07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     722 thousand
Chart =



  Bearish Play updates
  ---------------------

Corning Inc - GLW - close: 10.21 change: +0.33 stop: 10.51

GLW's rollover under the $11.00 mark was really working out for
us.  Shares were falling through support on rising volume, which
is exactly what bears want to see.  Then suddenly on Friday GLW
reversed course on us.  Was it the general bullishness in the
market on Friday?  Or was it a reaction to some broker comments
that any capex spending by the big telecoms could filter to GLW?
We don't like the rebound back above the $10.00 level but with
our stop loss near breakeven at $10.51 we'll let it ride.  Look
for a drop back under the $10 mark if you're looking for new
positions.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 24 at $10.47
Gain since picked:     - 0.26
Earnings Date        07/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     9.9 million
Chart =


---



Sierra Wireless - SWIR - close: 23.05 chg: -0.84 stop: 25.55*new*

SWIR is right on track.  The stock continues to wither under its
trend of lower highs and the recent failed rally near $25.00 and
its exponential 200-dma was a great entry point for new
positions.  SWIR is down more than $2 from our entry point and
it's more than halfway to our profit target at $21.25.  We're
going to lower our stop loss to $25.55.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 11 at $25.10
Gain since picked:     - 2.05
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.5 million
Chart =



============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Texas Instruments - TXN - cls: 20.34 chg: +0.32 stop: 20.55

The semiconductor sector weathered another breakout of relatively
bad news this past week but failed to move lower.  As a matter of
fact several stocks in the group look ready to bounce higher,
unlike the actual SOX index, which is still languishing.  We're
choosing to cut our losses now instead of waiting and watching
traders bid up chip stocks ahead of Intel's mid-quarter update on
Thursday.  Readers may want to consider bullish plays if TXN
breaks out over the $21 level.

Picked on August 24 at $19.69
Gain since picked:     + 0.65
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:    13.8 million
Chart =



==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 28.82 change: -0.24 stop: 30.51

Company Description:
IGT (www.IGT.com) is a world leader in the design, development
and manufacture of microprocessor-based gaming and video lottery
products and software systems in all jurisdictions where gaming
or video lottery is legal. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We've had IGT on the PremierInvestor.net Watch List long enough.
We've decided to graduate it to the play list.  The stock's
troubles began back in April when investors began to rotate out
of the stock at a fast pace right after its earnings report.  The
stock slowly rebounded back toward the $40 region in June before
another sell-off hit. July was a truly ugly month for IGT and it
got worse right after its earnings report.  Now shares are
melting under a steady stream of lower highs.  The P&F chart is
bearish and points to a $24.00 target.  We don't see any major
support until the $20.00 mark.  Although we do see potential
support near $27 and $24.  Consider IGT's total lack of
participation in the market's rally these past two weeks how fast
will IGT drop if the broader indices slow down?

We're going to suggest new shorts at current levels with an
initial target at $24 and a secondary target at $20.00.  We'll
start the play with a stop loss at $30.51, which is above round-
number resistance at $30.00 and its simple 10 and 21-dma's.
Momentum traders may want to look for a new relative low under
$28.65 before initiating positions.  If you prefer to short a
bounce look for a failed rally near $29.50.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 29 at $28.82
Gain since picked:     - 0.00
Earnings Date        07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     3.8 million
Chart =




============
Play Updates
============

  Bullish Play updates
  --------------------

Callaway Golf - ELY - close: 12.16 change: +0.11 stop: 11.25

We're almost there!  We added ELY to the list a week ago with the
expectation that the stock was about to breakout over the $12.00
mark and begin the process of filling the gap.  We were correct
on the breakout over $12.00 but ELY has not yet hit our TRIGGER
to go long at $12.25.  The stock hit $12.20 on Friday and closed
near its highs but we're not there yet.  More aggressive traders
not willing to wait may want to consider buying a bounce from
$12.00.  In the news ELY announced a cash dividend of 7 cents per
share payable on September 29th, 2004 to shareholders on record
as of September 8th.

Annotated Chart:

_1


Picked on August xx at $xx.xx <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:     + 0.00
Earnings Date        07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.0 million
Chart =





--

New York Cmmty Bank - NYB - cls: 20.95 chg: +0.04 stop: 19.99*new*

The financial stocks continue to rally.  The BKX is breaking out
to new four-month highs and the BIX is breaking out to new five-
month highs.  This has been a boon for NYB, which is steadily
climbing higher.  Looking closer at the intraday chart NYB
appears to be coiling for a breakout over the $21.00 level; such
a move will produce a new P&F "buy" signal.  Remember that we're
targeting a move to $22.00 and/or its simple 100-dma (21.98).  We
are going to raise our stop loss to $19.99.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 18 at $20.39
Gain since picked:     + 0.56
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     3.2 million
Chart =



==================================================================
High Risk/Reward (HR) Stock section
==================================================================

------------
Play Updates
------------

  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------
Macromedia - MACR - close: 19.96 change: +0.36 stop: 18.00

Our "buy the bounce from the bottom" play is still bouncing
albeit slowly.  Shares of MACR have been struggling with
resistance at the $20.00 level but the current trend of higher
lows should ripen into a bullish breakout soon.  We're also
encouraged to see the 10-dma cross up and through its 21-dma.
Considering that this is a high-risk/reward play readers can
choose to buy a breakout over $20.00 or look for another dip back
toward $19.00.  In the news MACR announced that T-Mobile was the
first wireless provider to offer FLASH content for mobile phones.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 18th  $19.78
Gain since picked:     + 0.18
Earnings Date        07/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.0 million
Chart =



  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

CTI Molecular Imaging - CTMI - cls: 9.71 chg: +0.00 stop: 11.01

CTMI is going nowhere fast.  The stock has been trading in a 50-
cent range for the last two weeks.  The good news here is that
there's been no participation in the market's recent rally, which
reaffirms CTMI's relative weakness.  Readers can use a bounce to
$10.00 as an entry point for new positions or a drop through
$9.50.  As long as CTMI remains under the $10.00 level we're
okay.

Annotated Chart:



Picked on August 15 at $ 9.67
Gain since picked:     + 0.04
Earnings Date        08/05/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     322 thousand
Chart =



==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

PNY announces 2-for-1 split with earnings

This late this morning just before lunch hour Piedmont Natural Gas
(NYSE:PNY) announced their Q3 results, a cash dividend and a 2-
for-1 stock split.

The stock split will take the form of a 100% stock dividend.  This
dividend is payable on October 29th, 2004 to shareholders on
record as of October 11th.  Post-split PNY should have
approximately 77 million shares outstanding.


About the company:
Piedmont Natural Gas is an energy services company primarily
engaged in the distribution of natural gas to 940,000 residential,
commercial and industrial utility customers in North Carolina,
South Carolina and Tennessee, including 60,000 customers served by
municipalities who are wholesale customers. Its subsidiaries are
invested in joint venture, energy-related businesses, including
unregulated retail natural gas marketing, interstate natural gas
storage, intrastate natural gas transportation and regulated
natural gas distribution.
(source: company press release)


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.










PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 08-29-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of August 30th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of August 23rd
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

-no major earnings announcements-


------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

ABS  Albertson's          Tue, Aug 31   -----N/A-----       0.33
BAY  Bayer                Tue, Aug 31   During the market   n/a
DCI  Donaldson            Tue, Aug 31   After the close     0.33
EASI Engineered Support   Tue, Aug 31   Before the open     0.75
FCEL FuelCell Energy      Tue, Aug 31   Before the open    -0.40
MBT  Mobile Telesys       Tue, Aug 31   Before the open     2.33
OTEX Open Text            Tue, Aug 31   At the close        0.28
COO  Copper Companies     Tue, Aug 31   After the close     0.68
ZLC  Zale Corp            Tue, Aug 31   Before the open     0.13


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

COCO Corinthian College   Wed, Sep 1    Before the open     0.19
SKIL SkillSoft            Wed, Sep 1    After the close     0.02


------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

CAO  CSK Auto             Thr, Sep 2    After the close     0.29
DLM  Del Monte Foods      Thr, Sep 2    Before the open     0.06
DEO  Diageo PLC           Thr, Sep 2    During the market   n/a
FNSR Finisar              Thr, Sep 2    After the close    -0.05
MBG  Mandalay Resort      Thr, Sep 2    -----N/A-----       1.03


------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

-no major earnings announcements-


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

BAC     Bank of America           2:1      Aug  27th   Aug  28th
CFC     Countrywide Financial Corp2:1      Aug  30th   Aug  31st
VNBC    Vineyard National Bancorp 2:1      Aug  30th   Aug  31st
HOC     Holly Corp                2:1      Aug  30th   Aug  31st
TRBS    Texas Regional Bancshares 3:2      Aug  30th   Aug  31st
ENSI    EnergySouth, Inc          3:2      Sep   1st   Sep   2nd
CHD     Church & Dwight Co. Inc   3:2      Sep   1st   Sep   2nd
TCB     TCF Financial Corp        2:1      Sep   3rd   Sep   6th
TCHC    21st Century Holding      3:2      Sep   7th   Sep  10th
CVX     ChevronTexaco             2:1      Sep  10th   Sep  13th
SSP     E.W.Scripps Co            2:1      Sep  10th   Sep  13th
POOL    SCP Pool Corp             3:2      Sep  10th   Sep  13th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

This week has a parade of economic data but most of it will be
overshadowed by the Republican National Convention in New York
and any movement in oil.  Watch for the PMI on Tuesday, the ISM
on Wednesday and the Jobs number on Friday.

==============================================================
                       -For-
----------------
Monday, 08/30/04
----------------
Personal Income (bb)   July   Forecast: +0.5% Previous:  +0.2%
Personal Spending (bb) July   Forecast: +0.7% Previous:  -0.7%
Republican National Convention in NYC


-----------------
Tuesday, 08/31/04
-----------------
Chicago PMI (DM)       Aug.   Forecast:  60.0  Previous:  64.7
Consumer Confidence(dm)Aug.   Forecast: 103.2  Previous: 106.1
Chain Store Sales (bb)
Redbook Retail Sales (bb)
Republican National Convention in NYC

-------------------
Wednesday, 09/01/04
-------------------
ISM Manufacturing (DM) Aug.   Forecast:  60.0  Previous:  62.0
Construction Spending  July   Forecast: +0.4%  Prevoius: -0.3%
Revised Q2 Productivity
Ford's August sales
GM's August sales
MBA Refinancing index
Crude oil and gas inventories
Republican National Convention in NYC

------------------
Thursday, 09/02/04
------------------
Initial Jobless Claims        Forecast:        Previous: 343K
Factory Orders         July   Forecast:        Previous: +0.7%
Natural gas inventories
Money Supply
Intel's mid-quarter update
Republican National Convention in NYC - Last Night!


----------------
Friday, 09/03/04
----------------
Non-farm Payrolls(Jobs) Aug.  Forecast: +150K  Previous: +32K
Unemployment            Aug.  Forecast: 5.5%   Previous: 5.5%
Average Hourly Earnings
ISM Services index      Aug.  Forecast:  62.5  Previous: 64.8


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

CVX     ChevronTexaco              95.25     +0.74
BAC     Bank of America            89.01     +0.81
NGG     National Grid Group        42.00     +0.52
OXY     Occidental Petroleum       50.89     +0.56
GD      General Dynamics           98.39     +0.89
APC     Anadarko Petroleum         58.58     +0.64

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

FORM    Formfactor Inc             17.42     +1.06
CHP     C&D Tech                   17.08     +1.90
AMXC    AMX Corp                   17.46     +2.09
TUTR    Plato Learning              8.62     +1.37
ORCH    Orchid Biosciences          8.42     +1.32
BCSI    Blue Coat Systems          15.45     +3.50

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

COH     Coach Inc                  42.07     +1.09
BLK     Blackrock Inc              71.32     +4.11
MAC     Macerich Co                54.11     +1.83
GTK     GTech Holdings             23.46     +1.81
ACDO    Accredo Health             27.80     +1.72
CBU     Community Bank             25.50     +1.96
NX      Quanex Corp                46.05     +3.51

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

CHIR    Chiron Corp                43.41     -4.08
SFG     Stancorp Financial         71.68     -2.21
ATRX    Atrix Labs                 29.87     -1.53
NCS     NCI Building Sys           30.20     -3.34
SAM     Boston Beer Co             22.21     -1.22
CAE     Cascade                    25.57     -1.92

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

RY      Royal Bank of Canada       46.05     -2.17
BBY     Best Buy Co                48.43     -1.07
KB      Kookman Bank               31.99     -0.89
ANAT    American Natl Insu.        95.29     -1.12
JBLU    JetBlue Airways            24.28     -1.07
SFG     Stancorp Financial         71.68     -2.21


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to remove@PremierInvestor.net
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact advertising@PremierInvestor.net.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.









DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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