PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 08-31-2004 section 1 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section one: Market Wrap: Brought to You By the Letter "E" Watch List: Home Improvement to Fast Food Market Sentiment: September Looms Large ================================================================= MARKET WRAP (view in courier font for table alignment) ================================================================= 08-31-2004 High Low Volume Adv/Dcl DJIA 10173.92 + 51.40 10173.92 10074.22 1.38 bln 2257/ 992 NASDAQ 1838.10 + 1.60 1842.15 1819.62 1.31 bln 1782/1240 S&P 100 538.77 + 2.22 538.79 533.79 Totals 4039/2232 S&P 500 11-4.24 + 5.09 1104.24 1094.72 SOX 371.02 - 2.60 373.66 363.61 RUS 2000 547.93 + 3.37 548.45 541.96 DJ TRANS 3105.46 + 20.10 3108.80 3084.50 VIX 15.29 - 0.15 15.85 15.28 VXO (VIX-O)14.98 - 0.13 16.09 14.92 VXN 22.92 - 0.22 23.66 22.91 Total Volume 2,945M Total UpVol 1,734M Total DnVol 1,182M Total Adv 4556 Total Dcl 2567 52wk Highs 146 52wk Lows 106 TRIN 1.14 NAZTRIN 1.89 PUT/CALL 0.71 ================================================================= =========== Market Wrap =========== Brought to You By the Letter "E" by Jim Brown Today's market action was brought to you by the letter "E". Elections, earnings, extremists, energy, economy, employment and events all seem to have played a part in the early negativity and the ending rebound. Add in the "E"nd of month window dressing and play list was complete. Dow Chart Nasdaq Chart SPX Chart SOX Chart It was a busy day economically and that is as good a place to start as any. The Chain Store Sales fell again by -0.2% for the week and that theme was carried over in the later reports as well. The Consumer Confidence for August fell a whopping -7.5 points to 98.2 from the 105.7 multi year high for the year in July. Consumers continue to flip flop on sentiment and confidence but the pattern is clear. They are not supporting the economy by buying more goods and services. We know this is based on future election unknowns and a drag on spending due to higher gas prices. The biggest decline was in the expectations component which dropped from 105.3 to 96.6 for August. This nearly -10 point drop was the biggest decline since February's drop to 91.9 from 105.3. After that drop we struggled back to the triple digit level for June and July but the bottom fell out again last month. The present situation component also fell from 106.4 to 100.7. Those consumers planning on making major purchases of an appliance, car or home declined sharply. Jobs appeared to not be a concern as the numbers reflecting jobs were nearly unchanged. The Sentiment numbers today were much worse than the Confidence numbers last Friday which were slightly better than expected but still down for the month at 95.9. Monthly Mass Layoffs rose to 2,094 events that impacted 253,929 workers, an +88% increase. This was the second consecutive major increase from the low of 988 events and only 87,501 workers laid off in May. Today's number was a +12% jump over July of last year. This is the first month that was higher than the 2003 levels since Jan-2004. For the year the number of workers laid off is -11% fewer than at this point in 2003. Manufacturing was again the leader with 42% of all the layoffs. This jump in announced layoffs does not bode well for the Jobs report on Friday. They are not directly connected but there is always some trending in play. The Chicago PMI came in at 57.3 and was significantly less than the expected 60.5. This has been a volatile number of late after posting a high for the year at 68.0 in May. It has been trending down for the last three months despite a spike in July. Production fell to 61.8 from 69.5 and New Orders fell more than -10 points to 58.0. Backorders fell -8.6 to 51.6. The most serious challenge was the nearly +10 point jump in the prices paid component to 86.6 and a 15 year high. This suggests that inflation is beginning to appear on a broader basis as high energy prices filter through the order flow pipeline. Inventory rose to the highest level for the year at 61.3 and when coupled with the huge drop in backorders suggests a further slowdown ahead. The PMI is important but its biggest claim to fame this week is as a leading indicator for the ISM due out tomorrow morning. If the ISM fell off as badly as the PMI then any future rally would have as much chance as a snowflake in August. The only upside to the PMI and possibly ISM slide is the potential for the Fed to back off their current rate hike program. Bonds have risen for the last several days on concerns that the economy is continuing to slow. Futures are now pricing in only one more hike before year end. The NY-NAPM posted another gain to 307.1 and although the gain was a minor +4.6 points it was another new high for the year. NYC continues to pull out of its 9/11 slump and conditions are still strong. However, the same problems are beginning to show in the NAPM as in the other manufacturing indexes. The current conditions component fell to 59.3 from 73.2 in July. The six-month outlook fell a whopping -18.5 points from 78.5 to only 60. While the headline number did post a minor gain the internals suggest this could be the last month for this index to set a new high. Odds are good we are about to see conditions in NYC follow the rest of the country into a pre election slump. We are quickly counting down the days until Intel updates its quarter on Thursday night. The dog pile continued today with multiple brokers downgrading not only Intel but semis in general. SG Cowen told investors to AVOID Intel and semis as a sector. They said slowing demand and increased supply in 2005 would depress earnings for the sector. According to SGC channel checks with Taiwan component makers suggests notebook sales were especially weak over the last month. Merrill Lynch told customers to avoid Intel despite the sharp dip in price. They think the current margin estimate of 60% is too high based on softness in multiple chip components. Flash memory, cell phone chips and processors are seeing some aggressive price cuts as suppliers fight for market share. In Intel's case AMD is still fighting the good fight and becoming a stronger competitor in the current price conscious markets. Morgan Stanley cut Intel saying current sluggish demand was going to result in "negative gross margin surprises" in the coming quarters. JPM cut Intel's revenue by -$100 million for the current quarter. Prudential said channel checks were showing the back to school bounce was later than normal and the inference was a weaker bounce as well. With all this negativity it is no wonder Intel dropped to a new 52-week low just under $21 before rebounding slightly to $21.28 at the bell. Surprisingly the SOX only lost -2.62 points or -0.7% to 370. This is only +10 points above the low for the year and could be very close to a double bottom forming. If the SOX can hold 360 and Intel does not trip on its announcement then year end relief may begin to appear. With all the analysts coming out publicly this close to the report Intel could surprise everyone by pulling a rabbit out of its hat. While I am not expecting it this would be very good for tech stocks struggling to hold over Nasdaq 1800. September is the weakest month of the year and many Labor Day rallies turn into jumping off points for the October lows. This has apparently attracted new cash into the market with $2.3 billion flowing into equity funds for the last two weeks according to TrimTabs.com. Considering the very light volume prior to today that cash was still setting on the sidelines in hopes of a real pullback to enter. We got the drop I was hoping for over the last two days and those hoping for an entry at the SPX 1095 I targeted in Sunday's commentary should be feeling better tonight. Low today was SPX 1094.72. The challenge with today's rebound is the way it transpired. Several buy programs hit back to back in the last 90 min of trading that helped the Dow rebound 90 points. This was clearly some month end window dressing by funds in an attempt to show less cash and more stocks on the books. Will it hold tomorrow? Obviously nobody knows but the general consensus of opinion was expecting a post convention bounce. Today's rebound could have stimulated buying interest but extreme anti-"Semi"tic (I know that means something else but it would work so well here) revulsion against chip stocks could impede any continued rally. The bearish case is the easiest to paint today. The PMI and NAPM suggest the ISM tomorrow could be ugly. There is also another possible nail in the semi coffin with semiconductor billings scheduled to be reported. Add that to the fear of Intel on Thursday and the next two days have far more negative potential than upside potential. This may just work in the bulls favor instead. All the bad news is already priced in with the two day pullback to strong support at SPX 985, Dow 10075 today. This profit taking deflated all the bullishness built into the market as of Friday and gave us a nice strong launch point for a potential post convention rally. They could not have scripted a better entry for the rest of the week. Stops have been cleared and sellers have exited the building. Of course a nasty ISM number could ripen a new crop of sellers in a heartbeat. The election factor appears to be working in the markets favor with Bush pulling slightly ahead in the polls but it is still anybody's race. Regardless of your party the markets have a history of gaining ground once the final gavel is heard at the Republican convention. That expectation could prompt some bargain hunting over the next two days were it not for the ISM, Intel and Jobs report hurdles. Just getting past the convention does not eliminate our event risk. Just ten hours after Bush speaks on Thursday night to close the convention the administration speaks on the state of employment with the August Jobs report. The consensus estimate is currently 150,000, up from 132,000 last week and the whisper numbers are starting to rise to challenge the 200K level. While a 150-200K number would be very positive for the market we are facing a greater potential for a monster disappointment. Should Intel warn and jobs disappoint we could go from the potential for a post convention, post Labor Day rally straight to new lows for the year. We have a very tense market situation just ahead. The next three days could set the tone for the next month. With Septembers historical trend as the worst month of the year the only thing for sure is it will not be a boring month. We will either see a bear-b-que as a contrarian rally emerges or we will head south at a high rate of speed in a dip that will produce the best buying opportunity for the year. Should a post convention rally miraculously appear amid the smoke and debris clouding our path it will run headlong into warning season in about two weeks. With Q3-2003 comps very tough the potential for a strong warning calendar is very high. According to those that track these things the number of positive announcements for Q3 are running well below the norm. We have not reached the point where we will start to see the stats on a daily basis but those days are coming. The only sure thing is a solid wall of worry ahead and a very rocky road to November. The general consensus from the stream of analysts parading by on CNBC is to be fully invested before Halloween. The post election rally is one of the most recognized trends, regardless of who wins although republican victories tend to produce the best results. Even without the election November is the best month of the year for the S&P and the second best for the Dow since 1950, 3rd for Nasdaq since 1971. This makes our road map very clear. We should be wary of any post convention bounce and keep looking for the normal end of September weakness when earnings warnings begin to appear. We should then use any Sept- Oct dip to establish longer-term positions. That may be far too much forward thinking for most traders just trying to find an entry/exit point for tomorrow but we need to always keep the long term roadmap in focus to help us plan our short term strategies. Right now I am just happy to see the dip to support at 1095/10075 and the strong rebound to clear the cobwebs. This provided the perfect setup for me and now all we need is a positive ISM to keep it alive. Did I mention that today's rebound failed to break the 100dma on the Dow at 10195? Nobody ever said the uphill road would be easy. Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively. Jim Brown Editor ================================================================== WATCH LIST ================================================================== The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read as full fledged stock picks. Rather we would prefer to offer it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox. Think of it as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays that you may or may not have seen on your own. Due to time constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background research and other necessary screens that investors should do before making a decision. A common exercise is to read the entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's happening in the broader market indices. We hope you enjoy the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your own trading success. STOCKS WORTH WATCHING --------------------------------- Lowes Companies - LOW - close: 49.70 change: -0.32 WHAT TO WATCH: The rally seems to be stalling in shares of LOW. The home improvement retailer has been struggling under the $51.00 level and its descending 50-dma. Tuesday's drop toward $49.50 was saved by the afternoon market rally. Consider a trigger under $49.00 and a $46.00 target. The MACD indicator is very close to producing a new "sell" signal. --- InterActiveCorp - IACI - close: 22.81 change: -0.37 WHAT TO WATCH: Uh-oh! The oversold bounce or "dead-cat" bounce has failed under $24.50 and IAC is turning tail. The short-term technicals are bearish and its MACD is hinting at a new "sell" signal soon. There could be some support near $22.00 so watch for a new low. The P&F chart is very bearish and points to a $9.00 target. --- YUM Brands - YUM - close: 39.71 change: +0.51 WHAT TO WATCH: YUM has enjoyed a decent mid-August rally and is challenging major resistance at the $40.00 level. Traders bought the dip to $39.00 and its simple 10-dma and we could see YUM produce a bullish breakout soon. The P&F chart is very bullish with a $74 target. Watch for a breakout $40.00 or the April high at $40.16. ----------------------------------- RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch ----------------------------------- EGHT $2.08 -0.01 - Hmmm.. we've seen this trend more than once lately. A handful of tech stocks are breaking out from their long-term downtrends and wading through various moving averages and overhead resistance. This might be worth watching. QLGC $26.11 +0.33 - QLGC has been bucking the downtrend in the SOX lately and the breakout over $25.00 looks impressive. Shares are currently struggling with their simple 100-dma. Watch for a move over $26.50 but be aware of Intel's mid-quarter update on Thursday. =============================== Market Sentiment =============================== September Looms Large - J. Brown That's it! August 2004 is in the bag and if you're not the roller-coaster type then you're happy it's gone. Unfortunately, September looms large ahead of us but first let's look at what's weighing on investors' minds tonight. The economic data today was disappointing. The consumer confidence numbers slipped from 105.7 in July to 98.2 in August when economists were looking for a drop to 103.4. This is certainly not good news and not positive for the incumbent president. The Chicago PMI dropped from 64.7 in July to 57.3 in August. Estimates were for a drop to 60.8. Again, this is bad news. However, both are actually positive numbers. Confidence is relatively high and the PMI number, at 57, is still at an expanding or a growth rate. What these numbers show is that the economy is still growing but that growth is slowing. Of course you, me and everyone else paying attention already knew that. Crude oil continues to play a part in this great game on Wall Street. Currently the black liquid is down about $6.00 in the last week and a half. However, as mentioned before (either in this column or in the MarketMonitor) the $42 level, where oil is trading now, could be support. The $42 level in crude happens to be a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its July to August rally. It wouldn't surprise me to see a short-term oversold bounce from here, which of course would weigh on stocks. Then again we could see oil drop to the psychological, round-number support level at $40.00 a barrel then I'd really be wary of an oversold bounce. Investors are also worried about Intel's mid-quarter update on Thursday night. If you consider the weakness in the SOX and in shares of Intel today then one can surmise that confidence is pretty low. This shouldn't be a surprise if you consider that Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Prudential and SG Cowen all said they expect Intel to warn and/or lower their revenue guidance. Currently estimates are for Intel to turn in Q3 revenues at $8.88 billion. Merrill Lynch said they expect Intel to affirm their revenue numbers but they're wisely cautious on the stock. If I remember correctly most of Wall Street was bearish before Intel's last mid-quarter update only to have Intel surprise and guide to the upper half of their previous guidance. Investors, whether they like it or not, also have to deal with the Republican National Convention. The current logic dictates that Wall Street, besides being widely Republican, would rather have an incumbent stay in office merely to avoid the uncertainty factor. The market hates uncertainty. Considering that a number of polls seem to have Bush making some headway against his rival Kerry could almost be considered bullish for stocks. As long as the convention survives without any terrorist event this four-day pep rally might improve investor sentiment if it can cement any kind of lead for Bush if you follow the Wall Street loves the incumbent logic. This week is not without more risk. On top of exceptionally low trading volume, since most of Wall Street took the week off to avoid the traffic jams and security delays due to the RNC, we also have to deal with a parade of economic data. Tomorrow brings the construction spending numbers and the ISM manufacturing index. Economists are looking for the ISM to fall from 62.0 in July to 60.0 in August. Any number above 50 shows expansion and growth. Friday is the big non-farm payrolls (jobs) report, which could be a major influence on stock direction. Plus, we have to deal with seasonally weak trends in September. Historically it is the worst month of the year for stocks. Currently, September has been a loser for five years in a row. That's not a good record to be trading calls against. However, short-term the beginning of September and the post-Labor Day week tend to be positive. A lot of folks have been saying there is no reason to buy stocks until after Labor day. Well the holiday is almost here. Are investors going to come back with their wallets open or closed? ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Averages DJIA ($INDU) 52-week High: 10753 52-week Low : 9233 Current : 10173 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 10125 50-dma: 10136 200-dma: 10257 S&P 500 ($SPX) 52-week High: 1163 52-week Low : 983 Current : 1104 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1099 50-dma: 1102 200-dma: 1111 Nasdaq-100 ($NDX) 52-week High: 1559 52-week Low : 1280 Current : 1368 Moving Averages: (Simple) 10-dma: 1372 50-dma: 1400 200-dma: 1440 ----------------------------------------------------------------- CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.29 –0.15 CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX (VXO) = 14.98 -0.13 Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN) = 21.92 -0.22 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Put/Call Ratio Call Volume Put Volume Total 0.71 529,841 375,877 Equity Only 0.58 376,647 221,352 OEX 1.33 14,608 19,534 QQQ 2.32 11,792 27,375 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bullish Percent Data Current Change Status NYSE 55.3 + 0 Bear Confirmed NASDAQ-100 32.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Dow Indust. 46.6 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 500 51.4 + 0 Bear Confirmed S&P 100 49.0 + 0 Bear Confirmed Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure chart. Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings below 30 are considered oversold. Bull Confirmed - Aggressively long Bull Alert - Cautiously long Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend Bear Alert - Take defensive action if long Bear Confirmed - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend ----------------------------------------------------------------- 5-dma: 1.37 10-dma: 1.13 21-dma: 1.32 55-dma: 1.28 Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85 are bearish. These signals don't occur often and tend be early, but when they do, they can signal significant market turning points. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Market Internals -NYSE- -NASDAQ- Advancers 1950 1765 Decliners 884 1211 New Highs 106 37 New Lows 19 34 Up Volume 939M 523M Down Vol. 443M 694M Total Vol. 1392M 1292M M = millions ----------------------------------------------------------------- Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/24/04 Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data can be found at www.cftc.gov. Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend to be wrong. S&P 500 Commercials have upped both their longs and shorts but remain net bearish. Small traders have upped their shorts and pared back their longs a bit but remain net bullish. Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/03/04 401,619 419,429 (17,810) (2.2%) 08/10/04 397,576 419,734 (22,158) (2.7%) 08/17/04 398,472 416,109 (17,637) (2.2%) 08/24/04 402,599 420,478 (17,879) (2.2%) Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) - 3/06/02 Most bullish reading of the year: 23,977 - 12/09/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/03/04 128,510 88,833 39,677 18.3% 08/10/04 135,689 93,897 41,792 18.2% 08/17/04 138,550 97,792 40,758 17.2% 08/24/04 135,151 100,351 34,800 14.7% Most bearish reading of the year: (1,657)- 5/27/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02 E-MINI S&P 500 Commercial traders have decreased their longs and increased their shorts, which could be bad news for the S&P 500. In lockstep mirror-like fashion small traders are moving the opposite direction than the "smart money". Commercials Long Short Net % Of OI 08/03/04 340,053 428,736 ( 88,683) (11.5%) 08/10/04 369,547 441,055 ( 71,508) ( 8.8%) 08/17/04 404,065 457,372 ( 53,307) ( 6.2%) 08/24/04 392,065 473,911 ( 81,846) ( 9.4%) Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835) - 06/17/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 133,299 - 09/02/03 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/03/04 195,105 68,717 126,388 47.9% 08/10/04 179,940 89,239 90,701 33.7% 08/17/04 192,939 92,361 100,578 35.3% 08/24/04 211,995 76,184 135,811 47.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385) - 09/02/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310 - 06/10/03 NASDAQ-100 Commercial traders have added to both their shorts and longs but the end result was an increase in bullish sentiment on the NDX. Small traders are also bullish but have cut their enthusiasm in half. In essence small traders are beginning to turn bearish, which in a contrarian sense is bullish. Confused yet? Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/03/04 42,771 36,863 5,908 7.4% 08/10/04 43,968 38,351 5,617 6.8% 08/17/04 44,743 41,535 3,208 3.7% 08/24/04 48,624 43,222 5,402 5.8% Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858) - 08/26/03 Most bullish reading of the year: 25,160 - 06/01/04 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/03/04 8,995 13,901 (4,906) (21.4%) 08/10/04 10,081 10,858 ( 777) ( 3.7%) 08/17/04 12,256 8,352 3,904 18.9% 08/24/04 11,666 10,068 1,598 7.3% Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 19,088 - 01/21/02 DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL Commercial traders remain bullish but have pared back their longs a bit. Meanwhile small traders remain bearish but have also hedged their enthusiasm a bit. Commercials Long Short Net % of OI 08/03/04 30,118 25,029 5,089 9.2% 08/10/04 30,634 22,994 7,640 14.2% 08/17/04 30,271 22,809 7,462 14.1% 08/24/04 28,919 23,658 5,261 10.1% Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) - 1/16/01 Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135 - 10/16/01 Small Traders Long Short Net % of OI 08/03/04 4,325 5,212 ( 887) ( 9.3%) 08/10/04 6,450 8,488 (2,038) (13.6%) 08/17/04 4,388 7,089 (2,701) (23.5%) 08/24/04 5,052 7,214 (2,162) (17.6%) Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) - 3/09/04 Most bullish reading of the year: 8,523 - 8/26/03 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright ) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
PremierInvestor.net Newsletter Tuesday 08-31-2004 section 2 of 2 Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved. Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment ================================================================= In section two: Stop Loss Adjustments: SWIR, NYB Stock Splits Announcements: AMWD Trading Ideas Value Plays With Bullish Signals Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ================================================================== Stop Loss Adjustments ================================================================== SWIR - tech stock short - Exit Point Alert! If you missed our comments yesterday we're repeating them today. We are suggesting that readers exit for a profit. However, we suggested Monday night that more aggressive traders keep a small speculative position open. We suspected that SWIR's high-volume decline may have more to come and sure enough shares dropped another 11.7 percent and tagged our secondary target at $17.50. Today's volume was stronger than Monday's, which could indicate even more weakness tomorrow. We are now going to target $15.50 and if SWIR trades there intraday we'll close the play. Our new stop loss will be $20.21 just over today's high. NYB - non-tech long - NYB continues to climb and added another 2.79 percent on Tuesday. Volume was stronger than normal and the stock looks strong above the $21.00 level. Our first target is now the 100-dma at $21.75. We're going to raise our stop loss to $20.25. Short-term traders can prepare to exit at $21.75 for a 6.6 percent gain. ================================================================== Stock Splits ================================================================== Announcements ------------- AMWD announces 2-for-1 split This morning before the opening bell American Woodmark Corp (NASDAQ:AMWD) announced a 2-for-1 stock split. In addition to the split the Board of Directors also declared a 6-cent cash dividend and an additional $10 million to their stock buyback program. This brings their current buyback program up to $30 million. The cash dividend will be paid on September 24, 2004 to shareholders on record as of September 10th. The 2-for-1 stock split will be paid in the form of a stock dividend on September 24, 2004 to shareholders on record as of September 10th. About the company: American Woodmark Corporation manufactures and distributes kitchen cabinets and vanities for the remodeling and new home construction markets. Its products are sold on a national basis directly to home centers, major builders and home manufacturers and through a network of independent distributors. (source: company press release) ================== Trading Ideas ================== This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make them of interest to long and short side traders. These are not recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor editors for investment potential. However, each of them has technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas. New stocks will appear daily following the market close. Value Plays With Bullish Signals --------------------------------- Ticker Company Name Close Change SC Shell Transports & Trading 44.30 +0.62 RD Royal Dutch Petroleum 50.69 +0.51 XOM ExxonMobil 46.10 +0.97 KMB Kimberly Clark 66.70 +0.95 FRE Freddie Mac 67.12 +0.94 CFC Countrywide Financial 35.55 +1.08 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20) --------------------------------------- MDU MDU Resources 25.37 +0.63 IGL IMC Global 15.94 +1.06 PKS Six Flags Inc 5.57 +1.11 --------------------------------------- Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20) --------------------------------------- JNJ Johnson & Johnson 58.10 +0.56 UNH UnitedHealth 66.13 +0.97 MET Metlife Inc 37.25 +0.74 MFC Manulife Financial 41.43 +0.67 OXY Occidental Petroleum 51.66 +0.74 AT Alltel Corp 54.65 +0.77 REM Remington Oil 24.76 +0.61 ------------------------------------------- Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- BBY Best Buy Co 46.52 -1.19 MTB M&T Bank Corp 94.98 -1.51 FD Federated Dept Stores 43.40 -1.11 RNR RenaissanceRe 48.12 -1.05 FLIR FLIR Systems 58.37 -1.95 PLMO PalmOne 32.65 -4.01 SAFM Sanderson Farms 34.19 -1.59 CDI CDI Corp 21.00 -1.20 INT World Fuel Service 35.18 -1.90 ----------------------------------------- Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20) ------------------------------------------- SLM SLM Corp 39.02 -0.30 ERTS Electronic Arts 49.78 -0.86 PXR Paxar Corp 20.24 -0.26 ================================================================= To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, send email to Contact Support ================================================================= DISCLAIMER ================================================================= This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading in any security. The information provided has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to factors beyond our control. Please read our disclaimer at: http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html ***************************************************************** ADVERTISING INFORMATION For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please contact Contact Support. ***************************************************************** Copyright (c) 2004 PremierInvestor.net. and The Premier Investor Network. Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.
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