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Daily Newsletter, Tuesday, 08/31/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 08-31-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       Brought to You By the Letter "E"
Watch List:        Home Improvement to Fast Food
Market Sentiment:  September Looms Large

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      08-31-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10173.92 + 51.40 10173.92 10074.22 1.38 bln 2257/ 992
NASDAQ   1838.10 +  1.60  1842.15  1819.62 1.31 bln 1782/1240
S&P 100   538.77 +  2.22   538.79   533.79   Totals 4039/2232
S&P 500  11-4.24 +  5.09  1104.24  1094.72
SOX       371.02 -  2.60   373.66   363.61
RUS 2000  547.93 +  3.37   548.45   541.96
DJ TRANS 3105.46 + 20.10  3108.80  3084.50
VIX        15.29 -  0.15    15.85    15.28
VXO (VIX-O)14.98 -  0.13    16.09    14.92
VXN        22.92 -  0.22    23.66    22.91
Total Volume 2,945M
Total UpVol  1,734M	
Total DnVol  1,182M
Total Adv  4556
Total Dcl  2567
52wk Highs  146
52wk Lows   106
TRIN       1.14
NAZTRIN    1.89
PUT/CALL   0.71
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

Brought to You By the Letter "E"
by Jim Brown

Today's market action was brought to you by the letter
"E". Elections, earnings, extremists, energy, economy,
employment and events all seem to have played a part in
the early negativity and the ending rebound. Add in the
"E"nd of month window dressing and play list was complete.

Dow Chart


Nasdaq Chart


SPX Chart


SOX Chart



It was a busy day economically and that is as good a
place to start as any. The Chain Store Sales fell again
by -0.2% for the week and that theme was carried over
in the later reports as well. The Consumer Confidence
for August fell a whopping -7.5 points to 98.2 from
the 105.7 multi year high for the year in July. Consumers
continue to flip flop on sentiment and confidence but
the pattern is clear. They are not supporting the
economy by buying more goods and services. We know
this is based on future election unknowns and a drag
on spending due to higher gas prices.

The biggest decline was in the expectations component
which dropped from 105.3 to 96.6 for August. This nearly
-10 point drop was the biggest decline since February's
drop to 91.9 from 105.3. After that drop we struggled
back to the triple digit level for June and July but
the bottom fell out again last month. The present
situation component also fell from 106.4 to 100.7.
Those consumers planning on making major purchases
of an appliance, car or home declined sharply. Jobs
appeared to not be a concern as the numbers reflecting
jobs were nearly unchanged. The Sentiment numbers today
were much worse than the Confidence numbers last Friday
which were slightly better than expected but still
down for the month at 95.9.

Monthly Mass Layoffs rose to 2,094 events that impacted
253,929 workers, an +88% increase. This was the second
consecutive major increase from the low of 988 events
and only 87,501 workers laid off in May. Today's number
was a +12% jump over July of last year. This is the
first month that was higher than the 2003 levels since
Jan-2004. For the year the number of workers laid off
is -11% fewer than at this point in 2003. Manufacturing
was again the leader with 42% of all the layoffs. This
jump in announced layoffs does not bode well for the
Jobs report on Friday. They are not directly connected
but there is always some trending in play.

The Chicago PMI came in at 57.3 and was significantly
less than the expected 60.5. This has been a volatile
number of late after posting a high for the year at
68.0 in May. It has been trending down for the last
three months despite a spike in July. Production fell
to 61.8 from 69.5 and New Orders fell more than -10
points to 58.0. Backorders fell -8.6 to 51.6. The most
serious challenge was the nearly +10 point jump in the
prices paid component to 86.6 and a 15 year high. This
suggests that inflation is beginning to appear on a
broader basis as high energy prices filter through the
order flow pipeline. Inventory rose to the highest
level for the year at 61.3 and when coupled with the
huge drop in backorders suggests a further slowdown
ahead.

The PMI is important but its biggest claim to fame
this week is as a leading indicator for the ISM due
out tomorrow morning. If the ISM fell off as badly
as the PMI then any future rally would have as much
chance as a snowflake in August. The only upside to
the PMI and possibly ISM slide is the potential for
the Fed to back off their current rate hike program.
Bonds have risen for the last several days on concerns
that the economy is continuing to slow. Futures are
now pricing in only one more hike before year end.

The NY-NAPM posted another gain to 307.1 and although
the gain was a minor +4.6 points it was another new
high for the year. NYC continues to pull out of its
9/11 slump and conditions are still strong. However,
the same problems are beginning to show in the NAPM
as in the other manufacturing indexes. The current
conditions component fell to 59.3 from 73.2 in July.
The six-month outlook fell a whopping -18.5 points
from 78.5 to only 60. While the headline number did
post a minor gain the internals suggest this could
be the last month for this index to set a new high.
Odds are good we are about to see conditions in NYC
follow the rest of the country into a pre election
slump.

We are quickly counting down the days until Intel
updates its quarter on Thursday night. The dog pile
continued today with multiple brokers downgrading
not only Intel but semis in general. SG Cowen told
investors to AVOID Intel and semis as a sector. They
said slowing demand and increased supply in 2005 would
depress earnings for the sector. According to SGC
channel checks with Taiwan component makers suggests
notebook sales were especially weak over the last
month. Merrill Lynch told customers to avoid Intel
despite the sharp dip in price. They think the current
margin estimate of 60% is too high based on softness
in multiple chip components. Flash memory, cell phone
chips and processors are seeing some aggressive price
cuts as suppliers fight for market share. In Intel's
case AMD is still fighting the good fight and becoming
a stronger competitor in the current price conscious
markets. Morgan Stanley cut Intel saying current
sluggish demand was going to result in "negative
gross margin surprises" in the coming quarters. JPM
cut Intel's revenue by -$100 million for the current
quarter. Prudential said channel checks were showing
the back to school bounce was later than normal and
the inference was a weaker bounce as well. With all
this negativity it is no wonder Intel dropped to a
new 52-week low just under $21 before rebounding
slightly to $21.28 at the bell.

Surprisingly the SOX only lost -2.62 points or -0.7%
to 370. This is only +10 points above the low for the
year and could be very close to a double bottom forming.
If the SOX can hold 360 and Intel does not trip on its
announcement then year end relief may begin to appear.
With all the analysts coming out publicly this close
to the report Intel could surprise everyone by pulling
a rabbit out of its hat. While I am not expecting it
this would be very good for tech stocks struggling to
hold over Nasdaq 1800.

September is the weakest month of the year and many
Labor Day rallies turn into jumping off points for
the October lows. This has apparently attracted new
cash into the market with $2.3 billion flowing into
equity funds for the last two weeks according to
TrimTabs.com. Considering the very light volume prior
to today that cash was still setting on the sidelines
in hopes of a real pullback to enter.

We got the drop I was hoping for over the last two
days and those hoping for an entry at the SPX 1095
I targeted in Sunday's commentary should be feeling
better tonight. Low today was SPX 1094.72. The
challenge with today's rebound is the way it transpired.
Several buy programs hit back to back in the last 90
min of trading that helped the Dow rebound 90 points.
This was clearly some month end window dressing by
funds in an attempt to show less cash and more stocks
on the books. Will it hold tomorrow? Obviously nobody
knows but the general consensus of opinion was expecting
a post convention bounce. Today's rebound could have
stimulated buying interest but extreme anti-"Semi"tic
(I know that means something else but it would work
so well here) revulsion against chip stocks could
impede any continued rally.

The bearish case is the easiest to paint today. The
PMI and NAPM suggest the ISM tomorrow could be ugly.
There is also another possible nail in the semi coffin
with semiconductor billings scheduled to be reported.
Add that to the fear of Intel on Thursday and the
next two days have far more negative potential than
upside potential.

This may just work in the bulls favor instead. All
the bad news is already priced in with the two day
pullback to strong support at SPX 985, Dow 10075 today.
This profit taking deflated all the bullishness built
into the market as of Friday and gave us a nice strong
launch point for a potential post convention rally.
They could not have scripted a better entry for the
rest of the week. Stops have been cleared and sellers
have exited the building. Of course a nasty ISM number
could ripen a new crop of sellers in a heartbeat.

The election factor appears to be working in the
markets favor with Bush pulling slightly ahead in the
polls but it is still anybody's race. Regardless of
your party the markets have a history of gaining
ground once the final gavel is heard at the Republican
convention. That expectation could prompt some bargain
hunting over the next two days were it not for the ISM,
Intel and Jobs report hurdles.

Just getting past the convention does not eliminate
our event risk. Just ten hours after Bush speaks on
Thursday night to close the convention the administration
speaks on the state of employment with the August Jobs
report. The consensus estimate is currently 150,000,
up from 132,000 last week and the whisper numbers are
starting to rise to challenge the 200K level. While a
150-200K number would be very positive for the market
we are facing a greater potential for a monster
disappointment. Should Intel warn and jobs disappoint
we could go from the potential for a post convention,
post Labor Day rally straight to new lows for the year.

We have a very tense market situation just ahead. The
next three days could set the tone for the next month.
With Septembers historical trend as the worst month
of the year the only thing for sure is it will not be
a boring month. We will either see a bear-b-que as a
contrarian rally emerges or we will head south at a
high rate of speed in a dip that will produce the best
buying opportunity for the year.

Should a post convention rally miraculously appear
amid the smoke and debris clouding our path it will
run headlong into warning season in about two weeks.
With Q3-2003 comps very tough the potential for a
strong warning calendar is very high. According to
those that track these things the number of positive
announcements for Q3 are running well below the norm.
We have not reached the point where we will start to
see the stats on a daily basis but those days are
coming.

The only sure thing is a solid wall of worry ahead
and a very rocky road to November. The general
consensus from the stream of analysts parading by
on CNBC is to be fully invested before Halloween.
The post election rally is one of the most recognized
trends, regardless of who wins although republican
victories tend to produce the best results. Even without
the election November is the best month of the year for
the S&P and the second best for the Dow since 1950, 3rd
for Nasdaq since 1971.

This makes our road map very clear. We should be wary
of any post convention bounce and keep looking for
the normal end of September weakness when earnings
warnings begin to appear. We should then use any Sept-
Oct dip to establish longer-term positions. That may
be far too much forward thinking for most traders just
trying to find an entry/exit point for tomorrow but
we need to always keep the long term roadmap in focus
to help us plan our short term strategies. Right now
I am just happy to see the dip to support at 1095/10075
and the strong rebound to clear the cobwebs. This
provided the perfect setup for me and now all we
need is a positive ISM to keep it alive. Did I mention
that today's rebound failed to break the 100dma on the
Dow at 10195? Nobody ever said the uphill road would
be easy.

Enter Passively, Exit Aggressively.

Jim Brown
Editor


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

Lowes Companies - LOW - close: 49.70 change: -0.32

WHAT TO WATCH: The rally seems to be stalling in shares of LOW.
The home improvement retailer has been struggling under the
$51.00 level and its descending 50-dma.  Tuesday's drop toward
$49.50 was saved by the afternoon market rally.  Consider a
trigger under $49.00 and a $46.00 target.  The MACD indicator is
very close to producing a new "sell" signal.




---

InterActiveCorp - IACI - close: 22.81 change: -0.37

WHAT TO WATCH: Uh-oh!  The oversold bounce or "dead-cat" bounce
has failed under $24.50 and IAC is turning tail.  The short-term
technicals are bearish and its MACD is hinting at a new "sell"
signal soon.  There could be some support near $22.00 so watch
for a new low.  The P&F chart is very bearish and points to a
$9.00 target.




---

YUM Brands - YUM - close: 39.71 change: +0.51

WHAT TO WATCH: YUM has enjoyed a decent mid-August rally and is
challenging major resistance at the $40.00 level.  Traders bought
the dip to $39.00 and its simple 10-dma and we could see YUM
produce a bullish breakout soon.  The P&F chart is very bullish
with a $74 target.  Watch for a breakout $40.00 or the April high
at $40.16.





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

EGHT $2.08 -0.01 - Hmmm.. we've seen this trend more than once
lately.  A handful of tech stocks are breaking out from their
long-term downtrends and wading through various moving averages
and overhead resistance.  This might be worth watching.

QLGC $26.11 +0.33 - QLGC has been bucking the downtrend in the
SOX lately and the breakout over $25.00 looks impressive.  Shares
are currently struggling with their simple 100-dma.  Watch for a
move over $26.50 but be aware of Intel's mid-quarter update on
Thursday.



===============================
Market Sentiment
===============================

September Looms Large
- J. Brown

That's it!  August 2004 is in the bag and if you're not the
roller-coaster type then you're happy it's gone.  Unfortunately,
September looms large ahead of us but first let's look at what's
weighing on investors' minds tonight.

The economic data today was disappointing.  The consumer
confidence numbers slipped from 105.7 in July to 98.2 in August
when economists were looking for a drop to 103.4.  This is
certainly not good news and not positive for the incumbent
president.  The Chicago PMI dropped from 64.7 in July to 57.3 in
August.  Estimates were for a drop to 60.8.  Again, this is bad
news.  However, both are actually positive numbers.  Confidence
is relatively high and the PMI number, at 57, is still at an
expanding or a growth rate.  What these numbers show is that the
economy is still growing but that growth is slowing.  Of course
you, me and everyone else paying attention already knew that.

Crude oil continues to play a part in this great game on Wall
Street.  Currently the black liquid is down about $6.00 in the
last week and a half.  However, as mentioned before (either in
this column or in the MarketMonitor) the $42 level, where oil is
trading now, could be support.  The $42 level in crude happens to
be a 50% Fibonacci retracement level of its July to August rally.
It wouldn't surprise me to see a short-term oversold bounce from
here, which of course would weigh on stocks.  Then again we could
see oil drop to the psychological, round-number support level at
$40.00 a barrel then I'd really be wary of an oversold bounce.

Investors are also worried about Intel's mid-quarter update on
Thursday night.  If you consider the weakness in the SOX and in
shares of Intel today then one can surmise that confidence is
pretty low.  This shouldn't be a surprise if you consider that
Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Prudential and SG Cowen all said they
expect Intel to warn and/or lower their revenue guidance.
Currently estimates are for Intel to turn in Q3 revenues at $8.88
billion.  Merrill Lynch said they expect Intel to affirm their
revenue numbers but they're wisely cautious on the stock.  If I
remember correctly most of Wall Street was bearish before Intel's
last mid-quarter update only to have Intel surprise and guide to
the upper half of their previous guidance.

Investors, whether they like it or not, also have to deal with
the Republican National Convention.  The current logic dictates
that Wall Street, besides being widely Republican, would rather
have an incumbent stay in office merely to avoid the uncertainty
factor.  The market hates uncertainty.  Considering that a number
of polls seem to have Bush making some headway against his rival
Kerry could almost be considered bullish for stocks.  As long as
the convention survives without any terrorist event this four-day
pep rally might improve investor sentiment if it can cement any
kind of lead for Bush if you follow the Wall Street loves the
incumbent logic.

This week is not without more risk.  On top of exceptionally low
trading volume, since most of Wall Street took the week off to
avoid the traffic jams and security delays due to the RNC, we
also have to deal with a parade of economic data.  Tomorrow
brings the construction spending numbers and the ISM
manufacturing index.  Economists are looking for the ISM to fall
from 62.0 in July to 60.0 in August.  Any number above 50 shows
expansion and growth.  Friday is the big non-farm payrolls (jobs)
report, which could be a major influence on stock direction.

Plus, we have to deal with seasonally weak trends in September.
Historically it is the worst month of the year for stocks.
Currently, September has been a loser for five years in a row.
That's not a good record to be trading calls against.  However,
short-term the beginning of September and the post-Labor Day week
tend to be positive.  A lot of folks have been saying there is no
reason to buy stocks until after Labor day.  Well the holiday is
almost here.  Are investors going to come back with their wallets
open or closed?



-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9233
Current     : 10173

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10125
 50-dma: 10136
200-dma: 10257



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  983
Current     : 1104

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1099
 50-dma: 1102
200-dma: 1111



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1280
Current     : 1368

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1372
 50-dma: 1400
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 15.29 –0.15
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 14.98 -0.13
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.92 -0.22


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          0.71        529,841       375,877
Equity Only    0.58        376,647       221,352
OEX            1.33         14,608        19,534
QQQ            2.32         11,792        27,375


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          55.3    + 0     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    32.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed
Dow Indust.   46.6    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       51.4    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 100       49.0    + 0     Bear Confirmed


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.37
10-dma: 1.13
21-dma: 1.32
55-dma: 1.28


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1950      1765
Decliners     884      1211

New Highs     106        37
New Lows       19        34

Up Volume    939M      523M
Down Vol.    443M      694M

Total Vol.  1392M     1292M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/24/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend
to be wrong.

S&P 500

Commercials have upped both their longs and shorts but remain
net bearish. Small traders have upped their shorts and pared
back their longs a bit but remain net bullish.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/03/04      401,619   419,429   (17,810)   (2.2%)
08/10/04      397,576   419,734   (22,158)   (2.7%)
08/17/04      398,472   416,109   (17,637)   (2.2%)
08/24/04      402,599   420,478   (17,879)   (2.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04      128,510    88,833    39,677    18.3%
08/10/04      135,689    93,897    41,792    18.2%
08/17/04      138,550    97,792    40,758    17.2%
08/24/04      135,151   100,351    34,800    14.7%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Commercial traders have decreased their longs and increased
their shorts, which could be bad news for the S&P 500.  In
lockstep mirror-like fashion small traders are moving the
opposite direction than the "smart money".

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/03/04      340,053   428,736   ( 88,683)  (11.5%)
08/10/04      369,547   441,055   ( 71,508)  ( 8.8%)
08/17/04      404,065   457,372   ( 53,307)  ( 6.2%)
08/24/04      392,065   473,911   ( 81,846)  ( 9.4%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04      195,105     68,717   126,388    47.9%
08/10/04      179,940     89,239    90,701    33.7%
08/17/04      192,939     92,361   100,578    35.3%
08/24/04      211,995     76,184   135,811    47.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders have added to both their shorts and longs
but the end result was an increase in bullish sentiment on
the NDX.  Small traders are also bullish but have cut their
enthusiasm in half.  In essence small traders are beginning
to turn bearish, which in a contrarian sense is bullish.
Confused yet?

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04       42,771     36,863     5,908    7.4%
08/10/04       43,968     38,351     5,617    6.8%
08/17/04       44,743     41,535     3,208    3.7%
08/24/04       48,624     43,222     5,402    5.8%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04        8,995    13,901    (4,906)  (21.4%)
08/10/04       10,081    10,858    (  777)  ( 3.7%)
08/17/04       12,256     8,352     3,904    18.9%
08/24/04       11,666    10,068     1,598     7.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Commercial traders remain bullish but have pared back their
longs a bit. Meanwhile small traders remain bearish but have also
hedged their enthusiasm a bit.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/03/04       30,118    25,029    5,089       9.2%
08/10/04       30,634    22,994    7,640      14.2%
08/17/04       30,271    22,809    7,462      14.1%
08/24/04       28,919    23,658    5,261      10.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/03/04        4,325     5,212   (  887)   ( 9.3%)
08/10/04        6,450     8,488   (2,038)   (13.6%)
08/17/04        4,388     7,089   (2,701)   (23.5%)
08/24/04        5,052     7,214   (2,162)   (17.6%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03



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Copyright ) 2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                  Tuesday 08-31-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  SWIR, NYB

Stock Splits
  Announcements:       AMWD

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

SWIR - tech stock short -
  Exit Point Alert!  If you missed our comments yesterday we're
  repeating them today.  We are suggesting that readers exit for
  a profit.  However, we suggested Monday night that more
  aggressive traders keep a small speculative position open.  We
  suspected that SWIR's high-volume decline may have more to come
  and sure enough shares dropped another 11.7 percent and tagged
  our secondary target at $17.50.  Today's volume was stronger than
  Monday's, which could indicate even more weakness tomorrow.
  We are now going to target $15.50 and if SWIR trades there intraday
  we'll close the play.  Our new stop loss will be $20.21 just over today's
  high.

NYB - non-tech long -
  NYB continues to climb and added another 2.79 percent on Tuesday.
  Volume was stronger than normal and the stock looks strong above
  the $21.00 level.  Our first target is now the 100-dma at $21.75.
  We're going to raise our stop loss to $20.25.   Short-term traders
  can prepare to exit at $21.75 for a 6.6 percent gain.


==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------

AMWD announces 2-for-1 split

This morning before the opening bell American Woodmark Corp
(NASDAQ:AMWD) announced a 2-for-1 stock split.  In addition to the
split the Board of Directors also declared a 6-cent cash dividend
and an additional $10 million to their stock buyback program.

This brings their current buyback program up to $30 million.  The
cash dividend will be paid on September 24, 2004 to shareholders
on record as of September 10th.

The 2-for-1 stock split will be paid in the form of a stock
dividend on September 24, 2004 to shareholders on record as of
September 10th.


About the company:
American Woodmark Corporation manufactures and distributes kitchen
cabinets and vanities for the remodeling and new home construction
markets. Its products are sold on a national basis directly to
home centers, major builders and home manufacturers and through a
network of independent distributors.
(source: company press release)


==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

SC      Shell Transports & Trading  44.30     +0.62
RD      Royal Dutch Petroleum       50.69     +0.51
XOM     ExxonMobil                  46.10     +0.97
KMB     Kimberly Clark              66.70     +0.95
FRE     Freddie Mac                 67.12     +0.94
CFC     Countrywide Financial       35.55     +1.08

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

MDU     MDU Resources               25.37     +0.63
IGL     IMC Global                  15.94     +1.06
PKS     Six Flags Inc                5.57     +1.11

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------

JNJ     Johnson & Johnson           58.10     +0.56
UNH     UnitedHealth                66.13     +0.97
MET     Metlife Inc                 37.25     +0.74
MFC     Manulife Financial          41.43     +0.67
OXY     Occidental Petroleum        51.66     +0.74
AT      Alltel Corp                 54.65     +0.77
REM     Remington Oil               24.76     +0.61

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

BBY     Best Buy Co                 46.52     -1.19
MTB     M&T Bank Corp               94.98     -1.51
FD      Federated Dept Stores       43.40     -1.11
RNR     RenaissanceRe               48.12     -1.05
FLIR    FLIR Systems                58.37     -1.95
PLMO    PalmOne                     32.65     -4.01
SAFM    Sanderson Farms             34.19     -1.59
CDI     CDI Corp                    21.00     -1.20
INT     World Fuel Service          35.18     -1.90

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SLM     SLM Corp                    39.02     -0.30
ERTS    Electronic Arts             49.78     -0.86
PXR     Paxar Corp                  20.24     -0.26

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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.









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