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Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 09/01/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 09-01-2004
                                                    section 1 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:       A Difficult Trading Environment
Watch List:        Homes to Oil Services and more!

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
      09-01-2004           High     Low     Volume   Adv/Dcl
DJIA    10168.46 -  5.46 10208.27 10110.65 1.38 bln 1718/1080
NASDAQ   1850.41 + 12.31  1859.44  1833.33 1.41 mln 1772/1197
S&P 100   538.60 -  0.17   540.74   535.63   Totals 3490/2277
S&P 500  1105.91 +  1.67  1109.25  1099.11
SOX       374.16 +  3.14   379.62   369.07
RUS 2000  552.46 +  4.53   563.38   547.70
DJ TRANS 3106.53 +  1.07  3132.73  3085.08
VIX        14.91 -  0.38    15.39    14.72
VXO (VIX-O)14.98 +  0.00    15.62    14.57
VXN        22.65 -  0.27    23.16    22.10
Total Volume 2,790M
Total UpVol  1,818M
Total DnVol    882M
Total Adv  3490
Total Dcl  2277
52wk Highs  178 
52wk Lows    49
TRIN       0.71
PUT/CALL   1.05
=================================================================

===========
Market Wrap
===========

A Difficult Trading Environment
Linda Piazza

Many market technicians determined at Tuesday's close that
Wednesday might be a difficult day to trade.  Little did they
know how difficult it would be.  Technical analysts had pointed
to the obvious battle between those with bullish and bearish
hopes, with the possibility that the battle would produce choppy
trading conditions Wednesday.  They didn't know that indecision
would be complicated first by a fat-finger rise in the Russell
2000 at the open and then by a dive in the markets caused by a
rumor of a multiple-casualty event in D.C.  

By day's end, the Dow, TRAN, SPX, OEX, BIX, and SOX had produced
either doji or small-bodied candles indicative of indecision, in
any cases leaving long shadows above and below the candle body. 
Advancers were stronger than decliners on both exchanges.   

U.S. traders had reason to be more optimistic than they appeared
to be pre-market Wednesday morning.  With only four exceptions,
all global bourses either traded in the green or had closed in
the green during the overnight session.  During that overnight
session, some semi-related stocks had recovered and closed in
positive territory.  That rebound occurred despite an avalanche
of analysts trimming estimates and worry building up ahead of
Intel's mid-quarter update on Thursday.  

U.S. futures did not display optimism, however, and instead
registered slightly negative values.  Prudential had lowered the
software sector to a neutral rating, perhaps contributing to the
weakness in the Nasdaq futures, few news sources focused on the
downgrade.  Crude futures had been trending up during the
overnight session due to a pipeline fire in Iraq and worries
about the expected inventories numbers, but remained well below
recent highs.  A hostage crisis involving schoolchildren and
their parents and teachers erupted in Russia, but although market
participants of course worried over the fate of the hostages,
U.S. markets had tended to ignore recent terrorists' activities
in Russia.

More likely causes for the slightly lower futures included
caution ahead of the day's economic releases, to begin with
August's ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00.  Expectations for auto
sales figures also garnered pre-market attention in some media. 
Commentators cited higher incentives, higher material and fuel
costs, and building inventories as causes for worry, with some
mentioning a possibility that car manufacturers could announce
cutbacks in production.   

Whatever worry was given the most weight in the pre-market
environment, Wednesday's economic releases had been some of the
most closely anticipated of the week.  At 10:00, the August ISM
Manufacturing Index's headline number disappointed, at 59 against
the previous 62, with expectations at 60.00-60.5.  The prices
paid component was higher than expected, at 81.5, with
expectations for a flat 77 against a previous 77.  The new
orders, employment, and backlog of orders components all fell,
while inventories rose.  The prices-paid and employment
components were the most closely watched, with prices paid now
the highest in three months.  Employment dropped to 55.75 from
57.3, but remained above the benchmark 50.  

Although most indices had dipped into the 10:00 numbers, they
rebounded sharply after their release.  The reaction to the
number appeared to be keyed to relief that components remained
above that benchmark 50 level and that the number wasn't worse
than it had been.  July's Construction Spending was also released
at 10:00, showing an increase of 0.4 percent, with the previous
number showing a decrease of 0.3 percent, and expectations for a
0.2-0.4 percent increase for July.  The number was tagged as in
line with expectations.  

The rebounds in the indices catapulted the SPX toward another
test of its 200-sma, with the SPX climbing within three points of
that average.  The TRAN, a strong indicator index lately, opened
above 3100 and climbed to a high just above the August 26 high,
seemingly indicating another upside breakout.  The SOX charged
straight up toward 380 resistance.  

By 10:30, many indices had reached their highs of the day,
however, with the RLX being a marked exception as it climbed into
the close.  The release of the Department of Energy and American
Petroleum Institute's crude, distillate and gasoline inventories
revealed a shocking decrease in crude inventories.  The DOE
reported a drop of 4.2 barrels for the week ended August 27, and
the API reported a drop of 8.1 million barrels.  Analysts had
expected an increase in crude inventories.  Distillate
inventories rose 1.3 million barrels according to the DOE and 2.2
million according to the API.  Gasoline inventories rose 900,000
barrels according to the DOE and 2.2 million barrels according to
the API.  

With a hurricane about to rush up the Florida coast, perhaps
disrupting oil production, and concerns about the pipeline fire
in Iraq and recent terrorists' activities in Russia, crude
futures accelerated the climb that had begun during the overnight
market.  Crude futures spiked up almost to $44.00 in that first
push.  The TRAN, particularly sensitive to fuel costs, steadily
declined.  By 12:20, that index had erased all but a few cents of
the gains made since the previous day's close.  The TRAN
maintained its role as an indicator index, with many other
indices and sectors also declining off their highs, even the
financials and semiconductors.  The SPX's behavior was typical,
setting up a series of lower highs that indicated it might be
forming a bearish right triangle.

Annotated Five-Minute Chart of the SPX at 13:00:

 

During the next five-minute period, disaster appeared to hit. 
Rumor of a mass casualty incident in Washington, D.C. sent the
SPX lower by more than four points in less than ten minutes. 
Other indices plummeted.  The drop was broad-based as market
participants hit the sell button.  

As the five-minute SPX chart indicated, indices had been set up
for a fall before the rumor surfaced, but that rumor perhaps
exaggerated the decline.  As more information became available,
and it became likely that the casualties were limited to watery
eyes caused by a pepper-spray prank by adolescents, markets
rebounded.  

However, by then, new car sales figures had begun to hit the
airwaves, and they weren't good.  Higher gasoline prices had
impacted sales.  Daimler-Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors all
reported slipping sales, as did Honda, Nissan, and Mazda.  Ford's
sales declined 13 percent, and the company admitted that it would
reduce production by 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter, an
outcome that had been anticipated and feared.  General Motors'
sales fell 7 percent and DaimlerChrysler's, 6 percent.

Crude oil kept sliding higher, adding pressure, too.  From
Monday's low of $41.30, crude futures for October delivery had
gained more than $3.00 at the intraday high, although those
futures slipped off the day's $44.40 high to close at $44.00. One
headline remarked that crude had seen its biggest one-day
increase since June. 

With Intel's anticipated mid-quarter update Thursday drawing so
much attention and with the SOX playing a leadership role in the
tech-related indices, beginning with an examination of the SOX's
daily chart appears to be a sound idea.  

Annotated Daily Chart of the SOX: 

 

The 20-sma continues to play an important role in the SOX's
behavior, as does the 50 percent retracement of the rally off the
October 2002 low, the purple horizontal line on the above chart. 
The 30-dma descends toward that 50 percent retracement level, so
that the two might converge more closely by the time they're
tested.  A breakout above the 20-dma should probably be confirmed
by a break above that 50 percent retracement level and converging
30-dma.  An upside break through these levels brings the SOX back
inside that descending regression channel.  

Some expect a buy-the-fact reaction after Intel's update or
perhaps even a short squeeze tomorrow, ahead of that update. 
Those holding bearish profits might be reluctant to give them up
if Intel might something encouraging or even if the update is no
more troublesome than is expected.  Although many remember an
Intel-driven decline, market participants have had weeks to
remember that decline and position their accounts accordingly, so
the buy-the-fact reaction remains possible, if its likelihood
cannot yet be gauged.

A long position in the SOX remains problematic, however, because
of closely placed resistance.  That resistance might be found at
the August 23 swing high of 386.00, with a move above that level
confirming the higher low recently reached.  Resistance looms at
400, too.  The 50-dma at 412.81 might have dropped to join 408-
410 historical and Fibonacci resistance by the time it's tested,
and 420 is also known historical resistance.  A drop below the
August 13 low of 360.61 would create a lower low and confirm the
rollover beneath the 50 percent retracement of the rally.

Similarly, the Nasdaq appears poised for a break through a
horizontal resistance line or for a downturn beneath it.  

Annotated Daily Chart of the Nasdaq:

 

The Nasdaq's most recent pullback could be a bull flag forming
beneath resistance.  If so, logic suggests that the Nasdaq will
maintain closes above that 30-dma.  An upside break of the bull
flag would be confirmed by a move and close above the May low.  A
drop below Tuesday's low, especially if confirmed by a close
beneath the 30-dma, would suggest a potential rollover beneath
that horizontal resistance.

A horizontal resistance line also plays a part in the Russell
2000's trading pattern, evident even after that early morning
fat-finger spike higher Wednesday.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Russell 2000:

 

This chart presents a few interesting developments.  Due to the
early morning spike, the Russell 2000 spanned the distance all
the way from the (green) 200-ema to the 200-sma, finding support
at one and resistance at the other.  Candle bodies continue to
form at or beneath the horizontal resistance and the 50-dma,
although the Russell 2000 edged above the 50-dma at the close. 
In addition, as is obvious by Wednesday's trade, whether caused
by a fat-finger trade or not, the Russell 2000's pattern begins
to look more volatile again, widening from the tight range it
printed when first testing this level.  Sometimes that kind of
volatility precedes a breakout as one side or the other
momentarily gains an advantage.  

Oscillators give opposite impressions of the likely direction of
that breakout, with stochastics completing a bearish kiss and
attempting a roll down out of territory indicating overbought
conditions while MACD attempts to move up through the signal
line.  Obviously, oscillators are as confused as traders by the
recent action.  

The Russell 2000 had appeared to be setting up for a rollover
into a potential shoulder for an inverse H&S, reaching the
potential rollover level ahead of some other indices.  Now it's
lingered there so long that the rollover scenario can no longer
be given preference over an upside breakout one.  The possibility
that this recent consolidation has formed a blunted right
shoulder or that bulls intend to forgo the right shoulder
altogether cannot be ignored.  The recent consolidation pattern
remains roughly bounded by the 30-dma's support and the 50-dma's
resistance, so breakouts might be determined by moves above or
below those averages.  

Wednesday's action points out the problems attendant upon such a
choice of boundaries, however.  An upside break could be expected
to find resistance at either the descending 100-sma or the 200-
sma.  Bullish traders should have profit-protecting plans in
place as those levels are tested, if they are.  A downside break
could be expected to find first support at the July low and then
near 520. Bearish traders should have profit-protecting plans in
place as those levels are tested, if they are.   

Like the Russell 2000 and many other indices, the Dow appears
trapped between moving averages.

Annotated Daily Chart of the Dow:

 

The Dow's range, like that of many indices, has widened, with the
Dow mostly contained in a range from 10,110-10,210, but with a
dip down to the 200-ema, currently at 10,077.  As with other
indices, stochastics present a picture of possible weakness while
MACD presents a picture of possible strength.  Breakouts above
the recent range will soon encounter the 200-sma, and breakdowns
below the recent range will soon encounter 10,000.  Perhaps
Intel's guidance will break the Dow out of this range one
direction or the other, but expect choppy, non-directional
behavior until the Dow does break out of that range.

SPX traders might expect the same range-bound, non-directional
trading pattern until the SPX breaks out of its recent range, one
of the most clearly defined of the indices.

Annotated Daily Chart of the SPX:

 

A breakdown below the closely matched 200-ema and 30-sma would
suggest that the SPX was rolling down into a right shoulder for a
possible inverse H&S.  A breakout above the 200-sma would suggest
that the SPX was forgoing the right-shoulder formation and
breaking to the upside.  

The SPX's clearly defined range, bounded by the converging 100
and 200-sma's on the top and the 30-sma and 200-ema on the
bottom, might serve as a guideline to those watching for
breakouts on other indices, too.  I would be careful trading an
upside breakout on any index, for example, if the SPX were just
then challenging its 200-sma and hadn't yet broken above it.

Breakouts remain suspect if crude continues climbing.  Recent
activity shows crude futures' prices retreating to the 50-dma on
Monday and bouncing from that average, an average that has
supported it through many touches except for one in late June. 
Crude futures had also touched the early June high before
rebounding.  While crude futures could always round into a lower
high, they're so far behaving just as would be expected if they
were following an important MA higher, with each trough stopping
above the preceding peak.  As long as that pattern continues,
equities might remain under pressure.  Watch the 50-dma,
currently at $41.89, and the early June high at $41.24, as
violations of those levels could indicate that crude futures
would again retreat to the 100-dma as they did in late June.

As of Wednesday's close, most indices remained caught in ranges
that have produced and may continue to produce choppy trading
conditions.  Perhaps traders saw the possibility for inverse
H&S's to form across many indices, and decided to buy or leverage
in ahead of the drop into the right shoulder, keeping that right
shoulder from forming.  Bulls appear to want to send the indices
higher, believing they will go higher, without waiting for that
inverse H&S, which after all is a bullish formation if it
completes.  The dip-buyers have not had enough strength to
accomplish their goal, however, with the choppy trading
conditions a result of the almost equal strength between bulls
and bears.  Whether bulls will eventually win out remains unknown
at this point.  Unfortunately, while indices remain within ranges
known to produce choppy trading conditions, then choppy trading
conditions will probably continue.  

Wednesday's decline in financials might be problematic to bullish
hopes, and bears watching.  Intel's update could propel the SOX,
Nasdaq, Dow and then, by extension, other indices out of their
recent ranges.  Crude costs could, too, an often-repeated but
still true fact.  So far, the TRAN, an indicator index for the
impact of crude costs on the economy, has held up fairly well
under crude's rise, but it's also having difficulty moving far
away from its 50-dma.  Today's car sales figures showed some of
the impact that higher crude costs have had on consumers, and
same-store sales figures released Wednesday after the close and
Thursday pre-market may also show some of that impact.  

So far, that impact has not been evidence in same-store sales
(SSS) released after the close.  Hot Topic (HOTT) reported SSS
falling 8.7 percent, but said that overall sales had been strong,
up 8 percent.  American Eagle (AEOS) raised Q3 expectations to
$0.56-0.58, far ahead of the earlier $0.47 guidance, after
reporting SSS up 24 percent in August.  Men's Wearhouse (MW)
August SSS climbed 9 percent.  

Trade carefully tomorrow ahead of Intel's after-the-close update. 
Worries over Intel's mid-quarter update have been weighing on
techs across the globe this week.  Several firms, including
Morgan Stanley, lowered expectations for Intel ahead of the
update.  Japan's Industrial Output disappointed Tuesday, with
rising inventories and reduced production among high-tech
companies responsible for at least part of that disappointment,
so market watchers have reason to worry. Still, any
disappointment might already be built into the markets.

Thursday's economic releases begin with the usual 8:30 release of
jobless claims, but also include the Q2 Final Nonfarm
Productivity and Unit Labor Costs. Those numbers were last at 2.9
percent and 1.9 percent respectively.  Those numbers will be
followed at 10:00 with July's Factory Orders, with the previous
number showing a 0.7 percent increase.  The DJ/BTM Business
Barometer will also be released at 10:00.  Natural gas
inventories will be released at 10:30.


==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

D R Horton - DHI - close: 31.63 change: +0.69

WHAT TO WATCH: The housing sector has seen some steady buying 
pressure over the last few weeks and DHI, one of the biggest in 
the business, is nearing new four-month highs.  The breakout over 
the $30.00 level and subsequent consolidation looks like an entry 
point.  We would target the $35.00 level.  The P&F chart is 
bullish with a $59 target.




---

Varco Intl - VRC - close: 25.33 change: +1.05

WHAT TO WATCH: VRC is another oil services stock that broke out 
to new highs today.  We like the bullish technical picture and 
the new MACD "buy" signal.  Today's 4.3% rally pushed VRC through 
the top of its recent trading range.  Watch for a move over 
$25.50, which would be a new five-year high.  The P&F chart is 
bullish with a $37.50 target.




---

C-COR Inc. - CCBL - close: 8.72 change: +0.86

WHAT TO WATCH: CCBL climbed more than 10% on Wednesday with 
volume way above normal.  The move was a positive investor 
reaction to news that CCBL would buy privately held Optinel 
Systems Inc., an Ethernet provider.  Technical traders will 
notice the rally puts CCBL above its simple 50-dma and resistance 
at the $8.50 level.  This could be an aggressive bullish entry 
but watch out for the 100-dma just overhead. Plus, its P&F chart 
is still bearish.




---

Teva Pharma. - TEVA - close: 26.50 change: -0.75

WHAT TO WATCH: It's been tough to find bearish candidates in this 
market but TEVA looks like a good one.  The oversold bounce from 
mid-August failed just over the $28.00 level and today's 2.75% 
decline was on big volume.  We don't see any particular news to 
account for today's drop so it appears to be a continuation of 
the two-month trend.  The P&F chart is bearish with a $19.00 
target but shows potential support near $23.00.  We would 
consider aggressive shorts with a target at the recent low near 
$24.00. 





-----------------------------------
RADAR SCREEN - more stocks to watch
-----------------------------------

COCO $14.01 +2.64 - COCO soared today after reporting better than 
expected earnings.  This could be the beginning of a "fill the 
gap" play but watch for some profit taking after today's 23% 
rally.

CCMP $34.07 +0.68 - We're watching CCMP for a breakout over the 
$35.00 mark.  

QLGC $26.77 +0.66 - We're still bullish on QLGC and today's 
breakout over its simple 100-dma is very bullish but we don't 
want to initiate positions ahead of Intel's mid-quarter update on 
Thursday night.



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DISCLAIMER
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This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
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only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
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guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter                Wednesday 09-01-2004
                                                    section 2 of 2
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Stop Loss Adjustments:  AAPL, GLW, NYB, ELY, IGT, CTMI

Net Bulls (Tech Stocks)
  Closed Bearish Plays: SWIR

Active Trader (Non-tech Stocks)
  New Bullish plays:    MVK, SPN
  
Stock Splits
  Announcements:       None

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


==================================================================
Stop Loss Adjustments
==================================================================

AAPL - tech stock long -
AAPL surged another 3.97 percent today and appears to be coiling 
for a breakout over the $36.00 mark.  The stock is up 8.5 percent 
from our entry point and some short-term traders may want to exit 
now for a profit.  We would certainly suggest it. Our plan is to 
raise our stop loss from $31.50 to $33.00 just under the simple 
10-dma.  There doesn't seem to be any resistance between here and 
$40.00 but don't get greedy.  More conservative traders can put 
their stops under $34.00. 
 
 
GLW - tech stock short - 
Danger!  GLW is trying to breakout to the upside.  Right now our 
stop is near breakeven at $10.51.  Be ready to exit.
 
 
NYB - non-tech stock long -
EXIT POINT/PROFIT ALERT!  
NYB has added another 1.9 percent and closed above our initial 
target at the 100-dma near $21.75.  This is a 6.7 percent rally 
from our entry point.  We do suggest closing the play for a 
profit here.  However, NYB looks so strong we think it could run 
to $22.00 or even $22.50.  We're going to raise our stop loss to 
$20.75 and let it run.  You may want to close part of your 
position for a profit and leave a small position open.  
 
 
ELY - non-tech stock long -
Heads up!  We have been TRIGGERED in ELY.  The stock's early 
morning rally hit $12.40 and traded through our entry point to go 
long at $12.30.The stock dipped back to $12.07 before bouncing in 
the last hour. 
 
 
IGT - non-tech short - 
Danger!  IGT unexpected rallied for a 3.4 percent gain today as 
the gambling sector rebounded higher on Wednesday.  The $30.00 
level should be resistance but we're choosing to tighten our stop 
loss from $30.51 to $30.18 just over the mid-August highs.
 
 
CTMI - high risk/reward short -
Last night after the market close on Tuesday CTMI announced one 
of its executives had left for another company.  Thomas J. Hook 
was both Senior VP and President between two different business 
divisions.  Normally, when a key manager leaves it's bad news for 
the stock price.  Oddly shares of CTMI rallied sharply at the 
beginning of trading on Wednesday and then plummetted.  The stock 
ended the session down 4.68 percent to $8.95 on twice the normal 
volume.  Its MACD indicator appears to have produced the new 
"sell" signal we were looking for.  We're going to lower our stop 
loss from $10.51 to $10.01.

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

============
Closed Plays
============

  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Sierra Wireless - SWIR - close: 17.58 chg: -0.07 stop: 20.21     

SWIR has exceeded our expectations.  If you've been following the 
nightly updates this week the stock has been dropping on huge 
volume.  On Aug. 30th the stock dropped to the $20.00 level on a 
downgrade to "reduce".  On Aug. 31st the stock dropped to the 
$17.50 region over competitions concerns.  Finally the news hit 
today that even though SWIR reaffirmed their earnings estimates 
they do not expect to gain any new design wins with PalmOne in the 
short-term.  Plus, their Senior VP or marketing has resigned.  The 
combination of bad news sent SWIR to an intraday low of $16.18 
before bouncing.  This whole time we've been suggesting that 
readers close the play for a gain while suggesting more aggressive 
traders can leave a small position open on the suspicion that SWIR 
had farther to fall.  We now believe that SWIR is ready to produce 
an oversold bounce and we want to exit.  Closing the play here 
captures a drop of 29.9 percent from our entry point. 

Picked on August 11 at $25.10 
Gain since picked:     - 7.52
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.5 million 




==================================================================
Active Trader (AT) Non-Tech Stock section
==================================================================

---------
New Plays
---------


  New Bullish Plays
  -----------------

Maverick Tube Corp - MVK - close: 30.60 chg: +0.98 stop: 27.99

Company Description:
Maverick Tube Corporation is a St. Louis, Missouri, based
 manufacturer of tubular products used in the energy industry for 
drilling, production, well servicing and line pipe applications, 
as well as industrial tubing products (HSS, electrical conduit 
and standard pipe) used in various applications.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
We like MVK for its relative strength but it's got earnings to 
back it up.  The company last reported on July 20th and beat 
estimates by 33 cents.  The stock has spent the last several 
weeks consolidating in a neutral pattern of higher lows and lower 
highs but the prevailing trend has pushed the stock higher.  This 
is probably due to the strength in the oil services sector of 
which MVK is a supplier to.  

The breakout over $30.00 is good news and its MACD has produced a 
new "buy" signal.  The P&F chart is already bullish with a $46 
price target but a move over $31.00 would produce a new triple-
top breakout buy signal.  We're going to target a move to the 
$33.00 region and then re-evaluate.

Annotated Chart:
 

Picked on September 01 at $30.60 
Gain since picked:        + 0.00
Earnings Date           07/20/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        713 thousand




---

Superior Energy - SPN - close: 11.74 change: +0.55 stop: 10.90

Company Description:
Superior Energy Services, Inc. provides a broad range of 
specialized oilfield services and equipment primarily to major 
and independent oil and gas companies engaged in the exploration, 
production and development of oil and natural gas properties 
offshore in the Gulf of Mexico and throughout the Gulf Coast 
region. These services and equipment include the rental of 
liftboats, rental of specialized oilfield equipment, electric and 
mechanical wireline services, well plug and abandonment services, 
well control, coiled tubing services and engineering services. 
Additional services provided include contract operating and 
supplemental labor, offshore construction and maintenance 
services, offshore and dockside environmental cleaning services, 
the manufacture and sale of drilling instrumentation and the 
manufacture and sale of oil spill containment equipment.
(source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Wednesday was a big day for SPN.  We've seen the oil/oil service 
sector grow more bullish over the last few sessions but the oil 
services industry really saw some buying pressure today.  Shares 
of SPN added 4.9 percent and rally through resistance at the 
$11.50 level to hit new three-year highs.  Its technicals are 
positive and its MACD has just produced a new "buy" signal.  The 
P&F chart looks very encouraging with strong support and a 
bullish buy signal pointing to a $21 target.  We're going to 
target a move to the $13.50-14.00 range, which should be 
resistance dating back to May 2001.  

Annotated Chart:
 

Picked on September 01 at $11.74 
Gain since picked:        + 0.00
Earnings Date           08/03/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        355 thousand






==================================================================
Stock Splits 
==================================================================

Announcements
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None

==================
  Trading Ideas
==================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

SI      Siemens                    69.99     +0.94
PTR     PetroChina                 51.05     +0.69
CVX     ChevronTexaco              98.73     +1.23
UN      Unilever                   60.65     +0.59
COF     Capital One Financial      68.39     +0.63
CAH     Cardinal Health            45.74     +0.54

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

COCO    Corinthian Colleges        14.01     +2.64
CSAR    Caraustar Industries       16.96     +1.09
STMP    Stamps.com                 16.13     +1.21

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
INFY    Infosys Technologies       53.39     +1.26
MBT     Mobile Telesys            137.85     +8.49
APD     Air Products & Chemicals   53.71     +1.33
DGX     Quest Diagnostics          86.79     +1.19
CCJ     Cameco Corp                67.83     +2.54
DO      Diamond Offshore           26.43     +1.01
VIP     Vimpel Communications     101.60     +3.50

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

FRX     Forest Labs                42.05     -3.80

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

SHW     Sherwin Williams           40.14     -1.16
CATT    Catapult Communications    22.43     -1.47
FITB    Fifth Third Bancorp        48.87     -0.94
MCK     McKesson                   30.73     -0.22

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