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Daily Newsletter, Sunday, 09/05/2004

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PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-05-2004
                                                    section 1 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section one:

Market Wrap:         OK, Now What
Market Sentiment:     Buckle Your Seat Belts
Watch List:           Biotechs to Internets

=================================================================
MARKET WRAP  (view in courier font for table alignment)
=================================================================
        WE 9-03         WE 8-27         WE 8-20         WE 8-13 
DOW    10260.20 + 65.19 10195.0 + 84.91 10110.1 +284.79 + 10.02 
Nasdaq  1844.48 - 17.61 1862.09 + 31.07 1831.02 + 73.80 – 19.67 
S&P-100  541.06 +  0.18  540.88 +  4.84  536.04 + 15.32 -  1.11 
S&P-500 1113.63 +  5.86 1107.77 +  9.42 1098.35 + 33.55 +  0.83 
W5000  10820.88 + 65.86 10755.0 +106.22 10648.8 +344.09 -  3.18 
SOX      357.84 - 24.50  382.34 -  3.66  386.00 + 19.35 – 20.23 
RUT      556.24 +  4.57  551.67 +  3.75  547.92 + 30.53 -  2.26 
TRAN    3141.85 + 33.05 3108.80 + 17.93 3090.87 +123.95 +  0.84
=================================================================

===========================
Market Wrap
===========================

OK, Now What
by Jim Brown

The conventions are over and the Olympics have ended. 
The biggest event risks for the year have passed. The 
Jobs report is history and the dog days of summer have
turned into crisp clear days of fall. We are two thirds
done with the third quarter and a full two months remain
before the election. The markets are finally free to 
trade on their fundamentals. Now there is some real 
event risk!

Dow Chart - Daily


Nasdaq Chart - Daily


There were only two economic reports on Friday and the
biggest report was the Jobs number. The headline number
of +144,000 jobs was only slightly less than expected 
and actually surprised quite a few analysts. The July
numbers were revised up from 32K to 73K and the June
number was revised up from 78K to 96K. Including the
revisions this amounted to a net gain of +203,000 jobs.
Traders were more stunned than excited and you got the
feeling nobody believed it. The unemployment rate fell
to 5.4% but it was due to a reduction in the labor 
force rather than more people finding jobs. The number
of workers actually employed rose only a very weak 
+21,000 compared to the +629,000 gain in July. 

The revisions to the two prior months suggests Greenspan's
soft patch was not as soft as previously expected. The
Fed kept telling us jobs were being created yet traders
remained skeptical. The muted reaction on Friday may have
appeared to be continued disbelief but I believe it was
just very light pre holiday volume instead. With summer
over the jobs risk should diminish. The ramp up for the
holidays as well as the normal seasonal hiring bounce
should continue to give us positive numbers until spring.
This August gain will insure another Fed rate hike on 
the 21st. The Fed Funds Futures had been showing the
potential for only a 1.75% rate by year end but after
this report they immediately jumped back to a full 2.0%
by the Dec-14th meeting. 

More disconcerting than the Jobs report was the ISM
Services report that posted a headline number of 58.2
and a drop from last months 64.8. This was well below
the consensus estimates of 62.9 and twice in the last
three months that we have dipped below 60. Considering
the services sector was thought to be bullet proof this
is a disturbing drop. New Orders fell to 58.6 from 66.4
while most of the other components remained stable. 
This could be just a seasonal summer lull and the Sept
report will be scrutinized carefully for further signs
of weakness. Our economy may actually have reached self
sustaining status but it may be to soon to push the
life support equipment out into the hall. The economy
is breathing on its own but not yet ready to climb the
wall of worry ahead. 

There are no material economic reports next week until
Friday's PPI. Lots of small ones but they should not
impact the market. Of more concern to us is the coming
earnings warning season. The warning season should 
begin in earnest the week of the 13th but as you may
have noticed we have seen quite a few already and the
pace is accelerating. 

The Intel news was mostly trumped by the positive Jobs
report but the SOX still managed to drop -5% intraday
to 357. Intel opened at $20 and held that level most
of the day. Adding to the SOX decline was warnings from
Cypress Semi and 3Com. CY fell to a new 52-week low 
after saying weak demand and soft customer orders would
cause them to miss prior estimates. CY said they would
earn in the range of 11 cents where analysts had been
expecting 26 cents. That is some serious order weakness.

3Com, a competitor to Cisco and Juniper, cut its forecast
and reversed its prior guidance. In June the CEO had said
conditions were improving and gave revenue estimates of
$183 million for the quarter. They now expect revenue of
only $160-$164 million. This is another serious change 
in outlook. They also said margins would be lower than
expected. 

EFII warned on Friday that profit and revenue would fall
short of analyst estimates. EFII now projects earnings 
in the range of 12-14 cents. Analysts were expecting 26
cents. EFII fell -4.30 to $16.30 in heavy volume. 

On Thursday IDTI warned and that suggests we could see
a warning from PMCS. They have the same customers and 
address much of the same markets. With the Intel warning
of a reduction in capex spending we could see warnings
from AMAT and others in the chip equipment business. 
The dominos are lined up could begin falling soon. 

The coming weeks have not been kind to the markets in
the past. In fact Friday was the anniversary of the Dow's
high in 1929 when it topped out at 380. We all know the
history of the market and the ensuing crash. The Dow
retraced -89% of its height to reach a whopping low of
42 on July-8th 1932. It took more than 25 years for the
Dow to reach the 380 level once again. Most of us were
too young to have been traders back then but imagine 
an 89% drop. Just to return to the prior level requires
a 900% gain. 

There is nothing in the cards to suggest we will see a
drop of that magnitude again in this decade but there
is always a chance of a correction in our future. 
Despite putting all the summer event risk behind us
we may see a different market when traders return from
vacation next week. There are many conflicting conditions
that should provide an active market over the next four
months. It should be directional although not always
in the same directional. The potential for a flat and
boring market is very slim. 

There are huge amounts of money waiting patiently on
the sidelines. According to some analysts cash could
be at record levels for recent times. This should keep
a bid under the market until the election although we
may not see it immediately. Corporate earnings are 
rising although comps are declining. That means we
are seeing an increase in profits on a quarterly basis
but that rate of increase is just lower than the same
quarter last year. This is one major cause of the 
current flurry of warnings. Is it bad if your earnings
only increased +15% in Q3 this year compared to +20%
in Q3 last year? Last year we saw nearly $100 billion
in tax rebate cash hit the retail sector and that sent
a ripple of profit through the economy. Remember the
GDP was up +7.4% last Q3 and we are going to have to
struggle to hit +3% this year. Bottom line I do not
feel that a lower rate of profits is a material reason
not to buy stocks as long as profits are increasing
overall. 

However, we often talk about PE compression and that 
is what we may have ahead of us. This means stocks 
are priced for a specific PE ratio, say 20, based on
their expected 2004 earnings. Sometimes it is based 
on 2005 or even 2006 earnings at this point on the 
calendar. This PE ratio assumes an historical rate
of growth. The strong Q3-Q4 profits last year have
skewed that historical PE ratio to a higher than 
normal ratio. Once the warnings begin to appear on
a broader basis there will be PE compression cycle
where stocks still racing ahead will attract investors
and those slowing will lose investors. Why am I going
through this lengthy discussion today? Because 
September and October are typically when this rapid
PE compression takes place. 

Summer months tend to drag on earnings and this puts
a higher number of earnings warnings into Sept and 
earnings misses into October. This is the period where
mutual funds tend to shuffle the deck and discard the
names out of favor and add those names currently on
fire. For the market Sept/Oct is a big garage sale,
or yard sale as you would say in some parts of the 
country. Once the portfolio has been swept clean and
the sectors balanced neatly on the shelves the managers
go shopping to fill those blank spots in the pantry.

This is not a bad thing for the markets it is just how
they work. If you are a gardener it is similar to a
pruning. I know each year my fence of climbing roses
tends to look pretty straggly by October. Those limbs
that ran wild can be 5-6 feet long and ready to snag
anyone that walks by. If I don't prune them back to 
the same level as the rest they will be laying on the
ground next spring and the entire bush will suffer. 
To put this in perspective funds are preparing their
list now of those stocks that have run away from the
market and may be overextended or they just have too
much cash/profit tied up for the expected growth ahead.
They need to prune these fast growers and invest in
some more plants to expand their garden. This decreases
their risk by reallocating the cash and gives them a
wider exposure to future fast growers. 

While the Sept/Oct decline does not always happen the
potential is very strong. Everyone remembers the rally
in 2003 where the market exploded off the lows in March
and never looked back until February of this year. Well
that may not be exactly correct. Even in the middle of
that very strong directional move September had two
significant dips and one in October. The Dow reached
a high of 9609 on Sept-4th and dropped -240 points to
9380 on the 12th. It rallied again to a high of 9686
on the 19th but then dropped -456 points to a lower 
low of 9230 on the 30th. The first two weeks of October
saw a strong rebound of +620 points to 9850 on Oct-15th.
The damage was not over with a -350 point drop over the
next six days to 9497. 

I recapped those moves to prove a point. We were in 
the midst of a very bullish period in the market and
the Dow managed to move 1666 points in four direction 
changes over the two month period but only finished 
+278 points higher on Oct-30th than where it closed 
on Sep-2nd. 

The point I am trying to make is that regardless of
your market bias, bullish or bearish, we are entering 
a period where volatility reigns. About the only
guarantee we have is the promise of a post election
bounce in Nov/Dec. That potential bounce is a historical
trend and should keep the real bears at bay. Remember
the overriding market imperative for the next couple
months is to be fully invested by Halloween. If you
agree with that then you should have ample opportunity
to initiate positions over the next six weeks. I say
six weeks because the elections give us a target date
for the move and we know the majority of funds will
not wait until the last minute. They will be moving 
quickly over the next 4-6 weeks to shuffle their 
portfolios and get ready for a typical year end rally.

This also suggests the selling could accelerate into
September. The key here is the earnings warnings. This
is what institutional investors are looking for to 
give them the final clues as to what to dump and what
to keep. The roadmap is clear today only there are no
cars yet on the road. Traffic should pickup significantly
next week. 

The Dow appears perfectly poised for the next two months
of activity. The recent rebound took it back to very near
the downtrend resistance since February. The Dow closed
at 10260 on Friday and that downtrend resistance is
lurking just below 10350. If we do get the historical
post Labor Day bounce then 10350 would be well within
range. 

The Nasdaq is the weakest link here with the Intel news
knocking it back to 1845. Strong resistance is currently
1890-1900 and with the chip weakness it would take a
major reversal to get us back to test that resistance. 

SOX Chart - Daily


The SOX is the anchor holding the market down and it
may not be long before we begin springing other leaks.
The SOX set a new 52-week low today with a close at
357.91 and is very close to my target from last week 
of 342-350 for decent support. With every broker on
the planet negative on chips it may be about time to
pick some up. I think that thought process will start
to appear once we break that 350 level. Should conditions
worsen there is risk to 300 but I think there is too
much money on the sidelines for that to happen in 2004.

So what now? Traders should look for a potential bump
next week on event risk relief and then the bears may
begin their fall feast. For long-term investors I would
look for stocks I really want to own and start staging
orders at levels you would be comfortable owning the
stock. I did not say levels where you think they would
bottom because unless you have very accurate crystal
ball nobody knows those numbers. We need to pick entry
points where we would be comfortable owning the stock
or option for the next several months. For instance I
would love to see EBAY pull back to its 200dma at
$74 but with it currently ay $89 I am not holding my
breath. To knock EBAY back that far the market would
have to suffer a major retracement and I don't see it.

Next week get out your shopping list and get ready for
the blue light special to appear soon. Those of you 
that go both ways should look at any post Labor Day 
bounce as an opportunity to unload the dead wood. Get 
ready to add a few put options to keep that adrenaline
flowing while we wait for the bears to finish feasting
and go into hibernation. Have a great weekend!

Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!

Jim Brown


================================================
Market Sentiment
================================================
Buckle Your Seat Belts
- J. Brown

Hold on tight!  Summer is over.  Mom and dad are happy the kids 
are back in school.  Corporate America is happy the third quarter 
is moving into the home stretch and they can look forward to 
historically stronger fourth quarter/Christmas shopping season.  
Wall Street is happy because the big traders should all be back 
from vacation and ready to do some investing.  But if you read 
the market wrap this weekend Wall Street firms and money managers 
are probably going to do some house cleaning first.  

The third quarter is typically the weakest time of year and this 
produces a higher number of earnings warnings (that begin in two 
weeks - actually considering this week it feels like they've 
already begun) and a higher number of earnings misses when the 
reporting season begins in October.  It's no coincidence that 
September is the worst month of the year for stocks and the first 
two weeks of October can be very bearish too.  

Everyone in the investment world knows that September is 
historically bearish and commercial traders are lining up to 
profit from it.  The action in the S&P e-mini contracts (see 
below) saw short interest soar producing the most bearish reading 
in weeks.  Now consider the following:  The Dow Industrials and 
the S&P 500 are both up four weeks in a row.  The VIX and VXO are 
both back to their lows near 14, which has typically signaled a 
new short-term market top.  Add it all together (historically 
weak September, stocks up for four weeks, VIX at bearish reversal 
levels) and we have a perfect recipe for a significant downturn.  

Now we don't have any guarantees that stocks are going to turn 
south soon but it sure looks like it.  However, this year we have 
a couple of wild cards that can and will influence direction and 
the speed of any ascent/descent.  Crude oil will continue to be a 
major factor in the markets.  Yet the real wild card is the 
November elections.  This column has already mentioned the idea 
that the markets don't like uncertainty and prefer to see the 
incumbent win.  Considering Bush's recent lead over Kerry in the 
polls this should be bullish for stocks.  While this might not 
prevent any September sell-off it may lessen the sting a bit. 

Looking ahead the shortened holiday week is full of economic 
reports but the headliners are likely to be Greenspan's 
appearance before the House Budget committee and the PPI report 
on Friday.  Look for a lot of action on Tuesday when the U.S. 
markets open again.  The day after Labor Day has been up 7 out of 
the last 9 years.  We could see stocks tick higher again and we 
can use it as a chance to do some profit taking on our long plays 
while also trying to snag a better entry on our new bearish 
plays.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Averages

DJIA ($INDU)

52-week High: 10753
52-week Low :  9230
Current     : 10260

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 10175
 50-dma: 10125
200-dma: 10264



S&P 500 ($SPX)

52-week High: 1163
52-week Low :  990
Current     : 1113

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1105
 50-dma: 1101
200-dma: 1112



Nasdaq-100 ($NDX)

52-week High: 1559
52-week Low : 1301
Current     : 1371

Moving Averages:
(Simple)

 10-dma: 1378
 50-dma: 1394
200-dma: 1440



-----------------------------------------------------------------

CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) = 13.91 –0.37
CBOE Mkt Volatility old VIX  (VXO) = 13.90 -0.47
Nasdaq Volatility Index (VXN)      = 21.06 -0.56


-----------------------------------------------------------------

          Put/Call Ratio  Call Volume   Put Volume

Total          1.03        460,669       472,480
Equity Only    0.78        331,306       260,532
OEX            1.22         19,510        23,817
QQQ            7.79          5,721        44,569


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Bullish Percent Data

           Current   Change   Status
NYSE          57.2    + 0     Bear Confirmed
NASDAQ-100    38.0    + 2     Bull Alert      
Dow Indust.   53.3    + 0     Bear Confirmed
S&P 500       54.4    + 0     Bear Correction
S&P 100       54.0    + 0     Bear Correction


Bullish percent measures the number of stocks in an index 
currently trading on a buy signal on their point and figure 
chart.  Readings above 70 are considered overbought, and readings 
below 30 are considered oversold.

Bull Confirmed  - Aggressively long
Bull Alert      - Cautiously long
Bull Correction - Pause or pullback in upward trend
Bear Alert      - Take defensive action if long
Bear Confirmed  - High risk if long, good conditions for shorting
Bear Correction - Pause or rebound in downtrend


-----------------------------------------------------------------

 5-dma: 1.46
10-dma: 1.21
21-dma: 1.19
55-dma: 1.28


Extreme readings above 1.5 are bullish, and readings below .85
are bearish.  These signals don't occur often and tend be early,
but when they do, they can signal significant market turning
points.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Market Internals

            -NYSE-   -NASDAQ-
Advancers    1169      1108
Decliners    1607      1802

New Highs     148        46
New Lows       15        36

Up Volume    450M      166M
Down Vol.    663M     1059M

Total Vol.  1130M     1236M
M = millions


-----------------------------------------------------------------

Commitments Of Traders Report: 08/31/04

Weekly COT report discloses positions held by small specs
and commercial traders of index futures contracts at the 
Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. COT data 
can be found at www.cftc.gov.

Small specs are the general trading public with commercials being 
financial institutions. Commercials are historically on the 
correct side of future trend changes while small specs tend 
to be wrong.  

S&P 500

The latest data shows commercial traders reducing their short
positions just a tad.  They remain net bearish by only by a 
small margin.  Retail traders have upped both their longs and
shorts and the net result has been a reduction in their 
bullish enthusiasm.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI
08/10/04      397,576   419,734   (22,158)   (2.7%)
08/17/04      398,472   416,109   (17,637)   (2.2%)
08/24/04      402,599   420,478   (17,879)   (2.2%)
08/31/04      406,637   416,778   (10,141)   (1.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (111,956) -  3/06/02
Most bullish reading of the year:   23,977  - 12/09/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/10/04      135,689    93,897    41,792    18.2%
08/17/04      138,550    97,792    40,758    17.2%
08/24/04      135,151   100,351    34,800    14.7%
08/31/04      144,120   114,343    29,777    11.5%

Most bearish reading of the year:  (1,657)- 5/27/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 114,510 - 3/26/02


E-MINI S&P 500

Wow!  We're seeing some action in the e-minis.  Commercial
traders or "smart money" has really upped their shorts while
reducing their longs.  This has produced the most bearish 
reading in a long time.  Without missing a cue the retail
traders have upped their longs to produce the most bullish 
reading in a while.  

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % Of OI 
08/10/04      369,547   441,055   ( 71,508)  ( 8.8%)
08/17/04      404,065   457,372   ( 53,307)  ( 6.2%)
08/24/04      392,065   473,911   ( 81,846)  ( 9.4%)
08/31/04      372,071   543,100   (171,029)  (18.7%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (354,835)  - 06/17/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  133,299   - 09/02/03

Small Traders Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/10/04      179,940     89,239    90,701    33.7%
08/17/04      192,939     92,361   100,578    35.3%
08/24/04      211,995     76,184   135,811    47.1%
08/31/04      258,624     77,036   181,588    54.0%

Most bearish reading of the year: (77,385)  - 09/02/03
Most bullish reading of the year: 449,310   - 06/10/03


NASDAQ-100

Commercial traders appear to be happy to sit still in the
NDX futures but small traders have increased their long 
positions.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI 
08/10/04       43,968     38,351     5,617    6.8%
08/17/04       44,743     41,535     3,208    3.7%
08/24/04       48,624     43,222     5,402    5.8%
08/31/04       48,167     43,411     4,756    5.2%

Most bearish reading of the year: (21,858)  - 08/26/03
Most bullish reading of the year:  25,160   - 06/01/04

Small Traders  Long     Short      Net     % of OI
08/10/04       10,081    10,858    (  777)  ( 3.7%)
08/17/04       12,256     8,352     3,904    18.9%
08/24/04       11,666    10,068     1,598     7.3%
08/31/04       14,635    10,572     4,063    16.1%

Most bearish reading of the year: (20,270) - 06/01/04
Most bullish reading of the year:  19,088  - 01/21/02

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

Traders don't seem very willing to change their bets on 
the Industrials.  Neither the commercials or the small traders
are shifting any money around.

Commercials   Long      Short      Net     % of OI
08/10/04       30,634    22,994    7,640      14.2%
08/17/04       30,271    22,809    7,462      14.1%
08/24/04       28,919    23,658    5,261      10.1%
08/31/04       29,143    24,147    4,996       9.3%

Most bearish reading of the year: (8,322) -  1/16/01
Most bullish reading of the year: 15,135  - 10/16/01

Small Traders  Long      Short     Net     % of OI
08/10/04        6,450     8,488   (2,038)   (13.6%)
08/17/04        4,388     7,089   (2,701)   (23.5%)
08/24/04        5,052     7,214   (2,162)   (17.6%)
08/31/04        4,929     7,122   (2,193)   (18.2%)

Most bearish reading of the year: (12,106) -  3/09/04
Most bullish reading of the year:   8,523  -  8/26/03

==================================================================
WATCH LIST
==================================================================

The PremierInvestor.net watch list is not designed to be read
as full fledged stock picks.  Rather we would prefer to offer
it as an extra tool in today's investor toolbox.  Think of it
as a radar screen with your own radar operator pointing out
interesting developments, technical patterns or potential plays
that you may or may not have seen on your own.  Due to time
constraints we do glance at the news but rarely do we have
time to fully read pertinent news stories, due background
research and other necessary screens that investors should do
before making a decision.  A common exercise is to read the
entry, glance at the sector and other stocks in that industry
and then compare what's happening in the stock to what's
happening in the broader market indices.  We hope you enjoy
the Watch List and that it proves to be a useful tool for your
own trading success.

STOCKS WORTH WATCHING
---------------------------------

 Digital River - DRIV - close: 24.15 change: -0.20

WHAT TO WATCH: It's been a very rough couple of months for DRIV 
and the latest oversold bounce is already failing.  Shares have 
been struggling to hold support near $24.00 the last few days but 
it doesn't look like DRIV will be able to hold on much longer.  
The P&F chart has produced a triple-bottom breakdown sell signal 
with a $16.00 target.  We would watch for a drop under $24.00 and 
target a move to the $20.00 region. 




---

Human Genome - HGSI - close: 10.84 change: -0.52

WHAT TO WATCH: We are always super careful about suggesting 
shorts on biotech stocks.  You never know when they might 
announce a cure for something.  However, if we're careful HGSI 
might be offering bears a tempting entry point.  The stock has 
soared from its August lows and looks very short-term overbought.  
Now it's struggling under the $11.50 level and its exponential 
200-dma.  Friday's action really looks like a failed rally entry 
point.  Depending on your risk tolerance one could short it now, 
wait for a drop under $10.50 or wait for a drop under what could 
be round-number support at $10.00.  We would target a move to 
$9.00 even though the bearish P&F chart points to $7.00.




---

Ask Jeeves - ASKJ - close: 24.11 change: -1.23

WHAT TO WATCH: We strongly considered adding ASKJ to the play 
list this weekend as a high risk/reward short.  The stock has 
been under performing the INX Internet index and Friday's 
breakdown under the $25.00 level looks like a bearish entry 
point.  Technicals are bearish and its MACD is nearing a new 
"sell" signal.  Unfortunately, ASKJ is sitting on P&F support and 
its P&F price target is only $22.00. We decided to pass. 




---

Satyam Computer - SAY - close: 21.46 change: +0.79

WHAT TO WATCH: Hmm.. something is going on in SAY.  The stock has 
charged higher in the last two days on rising volume.  Friday's 
rally was enough to push the stock through technical resistance 
at its simple 200-dma.  The move also pushed SAY through its 
descending P&F chart resistance.  Meanwhile the P&F chart has 
also produced an ascending triple-top breakout buy signal with a 
$24 target.  We can't find any news on the move.  Consider buying 
a bounce from the $21.00 level.




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Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
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Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-05-2004
                                                    section 2 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section two:

Tech Stocks
  New Bearish Plays:     NOVL, VRTS
  Bullish Play Updates:  AAPL
  Bearish Play Updates:  GLW

Active Trader (Non-tech)
  Bullish Play Updates:  ELY, MVK, SPN
  Closed Bullish Plays:  NYB
  Closed Bearish Plays:  IGT

High Risk/Reward
  New Bearish Plays  PCLN
  Bearish Play Updates  CTMI
  Closed Bullish Plays:  MACR

==================================================================
Net Bulls (NB) Tech Stock section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Novellus - NVLS - close: 23.39 change: -1.50 stop: 25.01

Company Description:
Novellus Systems, Inc., an S&P 500 company, manufactures, markets 
and services advanced deposition, surface preparation and 
chemical mechanical planarization equipment for today's advanced 
integrated circuits. Our products are designed for high-volume 
production of advanced, leading-edge semiconductor devices at the 
lowest possible cost. Headquartered in San Jose, Calif., with 
subsidiaries throughout the United States, as well as in the 
United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland, Italy, 
Israel, India, China, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and 
Taiwan. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
Semiconductor maker NVLS has been struggling for months on its 
own but now that Intel has put a whole in the chip-sector ship 
the whole group is going to sink.  NVLS' six percent decline on 
Friday was stronger than the SOX's five percent drop.  Friday 
also sent NVLS to new 23-month lows.  Oscillators are bearish and 
its MACD is very close to producing a new "sell" signal.  The P&F 
chart for NVLS is very bearish with a triple-bottom breakdown 
sell signal and a $19.00 target.  We believe that NVLS is a good 
candidate for a drop toward the $20 level as the SOX sinks into 
the historical September weakness.  If NVLS manages a bounce 
consider a short with a failed rally under $24.00-24.50.  If not 
we're happy to consider bearish positions at current levels. 

Annotated Chart:


Picked on September 05 at $23.39 
Gain since picked:        - 0.00
Earnings Date           07/12/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        5.1 million 



---

VERITAS - VRTS - close: 16.55 change: -0.47 stop: 18.01

Company Description:
VERITAS Software, one of the 10 largest software companies in the 
world, is a leading provider of software to enable utility 
computing. In a utility computing model, IT resources are aligned 
with business needs, and business applications are delivered with 
optimal performance and availability on top of shared computing 
infrastructure, minimizing hardware and labor costs. With 2003 
revenues of $1.75 billion, VERITAS delivers products for data 
protection, storage & server management, high availability and 
application performance management that are used by 99 percent of 
the Fortune 500. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
The software sector doesn't look that healthy and as we step 
forward into September, the weakest month of the year, we're not 
expecting any heroics from the software group.  As the GSO slowly 
rolls over we're noticing that VRTS, already beat up, is sinking 
to new lows while its MACD dips to a new "sell" signal.  The 
market wrap this weekend mentioned investors and fund managers 
doing a little clean up in September.  If they haven't already 
dumped their shares of VRTS this could be another chance for them 
to do so.  The P&F chart has reversed from a sell signal into a 
buy signal and back into a new sell signal with a $13.00 target.  
We're willing to short VRTS here with a stop at $18.01 and see 
how low it can go.  

Annotated Chart:


Picked on September 05 at $16.55 
Gain since picked:        - 0.00
Earnings Date           07/27/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        9.4 million 




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------


Apple Computer - AAPL - close: 35.23 change: -0.43 stop: 33.00

There has been a lot of news out for AAPL lately.  In a 
partnering deal with HPQ there's a new iPod for sale.  AAPL has 
also unveiled a new all-in-one-piece computer.  Plus, MSFT's 
foray into the downloadable music market was more bark than bite.  
This all helped send shares of AAPL to the $36.00 level mid-week 
but now we're seeing a little bit of profit taking in AAPL.  
Friday's action doesn't look so well either and it wouldn't 
surprise us to see AAPL dip to test the $34.00 level and its 
simple 10-dma as support.  If you don't want to wait and see if 
AAPL bounces from $34.00 then consider taking profits now.  We 
are entering September, which is historically the worst month of 
the year for stocks.  The P&F chart remains bullish with its 
triangle breakout pattern.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on August 25 at $33.05 
Gain since picked:     + 2.18
Earnings Date        07/14/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     6.8 million 




  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------


Corning Inc - GLW - close: 10.09 change: -0.27 stop: 10.51

Honestly we're a little surprised that this GLW short is still 
open.  The latest oversold bounce looked ready to take us out, 
especially with Thursday's rally.  Fortunately, profit taking 
ahead of the long weekend and technical resistance at the 21-dma 
and the $10.50 level held up.  We would not suggest new bearish 
positions at this time unless GLW traded under the $9.85 level.  
Yet even then it may not be worthwhile since our target is only 
$9.40 - at least that's our initial target.  GLW's P&F chart is 
very bearish with a spread triple-bottom breakdown sell signal 
pointing to a $5.50 target. 

Annotated Chart:


Picked on August 24 at $10.47 
Gain since picked:     - 0.38
Earnings Date        07/19/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     9.9 million 




==================================================================
Stock Bottom / Active Trader (AT) section
==================================================================

============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bullish Play Updates
  --------------------

Callaway Golf - ELY - close: 12.20 change: +0.05 stop: 11.75*new*

Even the new Big Bertha Heavenwood Hybrids, the new line of woods 
from ELY, is not enough to juice up the current rally.  The 
company just announced the new models on Wednesday and there was 
an early morning surge to $12.40 but it faded.  We are encouraged 
by the slow and steady trend of higher lows and support at the 
rising simple 10-dma but we starting to worry that ELY's momentum 
is fading again.  We were triggered on Wednesday at $12.25 when 
ELY hit a new two-month high.  Unfortunately, we're not seeing 
much excitement and odds of a real "fill the gap" play could be 
slipping.  We'll keep the play open for now but we're going to 
really tighten our stop to $11.75.  More conservative traders 
might want to put their stop near $11.90 instead. If we don't see 
some momentum in ELY soon we may close the play instead of 
testing our patience. 

Annotated Chart:


Picked on September 01 at $12.25
Gain since picked:        - 0.05
Earnings Date           07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        1.0 million 



---


Maverick Tube Corp - MVK - close: 31.00 chg: +0.71 stop: 28.49*new*

Our recently added relative strength/technical breakout play is 
off to a good start.  Shares dipped a bit on Thursday but traders 
were there to buy the dip and keep MVK above the $30.00 mark.  
The stock hit another new high on Friday with a 2.3 percent gain.  
The move over $31.00 produced a new triple-top breakout buy 
signal on its P&F chart, which now has a $46.50 price target.  
We're only targeting an early move to $33.00 and then plan to re-
evaluate.  We'd still consider entry points here at $31.00 and we 
will raise our stop loss to $28.49. Keep an eye on the OSX since 
MVK is likely to trade with the oil services sector.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on September 01 at $30.60 
Gain since picked:        + 0.40
Earnings Date           07/20/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        713 thousand




---

Superior Energy - SPN - close: 11.72 change: +0.03 stop: 10.90

Our second oil service play is also doing relatively well.  
Shares dipped to $11.40 on Friday morning but traders were there 
to buy the dip and drive the stock back into the green.  This is 
good news and we'd use the move as a new entry point.  If you 
prefer more momentum look for SPN to trade above the $11.80 mark 
as your entry point.  No change in the P&F chart with a $21 
target and no change in our target in the $13.50-14.00 range. 

Annotated Chart:


Picked on September 01 at $11.74 
Gain since picked:        - 0.02
Earnings Date           08/03/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        355 thousand



============
CLOSED PLAYS
============


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

New York Cmmty Bank - NYB - cls: 22.00 chg: +0.00 stop: 20.75   

NYB has exceeded our initial expectations and tagged our 
secondary target at $22.00.  The breakout over its simple 100-dma 
is very bullish and the rally has produced a new buy signal on 
its P&F chart.  We're going to exit now with NYB up 7.8 percent 
from our entry point.  Why now?  The stock looks a little 
overbought and due for a dip.  Plus, we're entering September, 
which is historically the worst month of the year.  If you're 
still bullish on NYB look for the $21.50 level to offer some 
support.  We'd rather exit now and watch it for a consolidation 
and then reconsider new positions.

Picked on August 18 at $20.39 
Gain since picked:     + 1.61
Earnings Date        07/21/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     3.2 million 



  --------------------
  Closed Bearish Plays
  --------------------

Intl Game Tech - IGT - close: 30.05 change: -0.09 stop: 30.18

We may end up regretting moving our stop down but for now the 
damage is done.  IGT surged higher unexpectedly on Wednesday and 
looked poised to breakout over the $30.00 mark.  We lowered our 
stop from $30.51 to $30.18, which was just above the mid-August 
highs.  Our logic was that if IGT broke through the $30.00 level 
we'd rather reduce our risk since odds of being stopped out where 
high.  Sure enough IGT broke through the $30.00 level but failed 
to tag the $30.50 mark.  Actually, it's probably a good thing 
that we're out of the play.  IGT has broken its month-long trend 
of lower highs and technical resistance at the 10 and 21-dma's.  
Should IGT trade back under the $28.50 level then we'll 
reconsider shorting it.


Picked on August 29 at $28.82 
Gain since picked:     + 1.23
Earnings Date        07/22/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     3.8 million 


==================================================================
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD (HR) section
==================================================================

=========
NEW PLAYS
=========

  -----------------
  New Bearish Plays
  -----------------

Priceline.com - PCLN - close: 20.40 change: -0.85 stop: 21.75

Company Description:
Priceline.com is a travel service that offers leisure airline 
tickets, hotel rooms, rental cars, vacation packages and cruises. 
Priceline.com also has a personal finance service that offers 
home mortgages, refinancing and home equity loans through an 
independent licensee. Priceline.com operates the retail travel 
Web sites Travelweb.com, Lowestfare.com, Rentalcars.com and 
Breezenet.com. Priceline.com licenses its business model to 
independent licensees, including pricelinemortgage and certain 
international licensees. (source: company press release)

Why We Like It:
PCLN has been under performing the INX Internet index and now 
shares look ready to breakdown under support at the $20.00 level.  
Shares peaked back in June under $30 but the trouble really began 
after its early August earnings report and subsequent gap lower.  
The stock managed an oversold bounce back toward the $22 region 
(actually 21.70) but couldn't muster up enough momentum to 
breakout.  Now investors are staring into September, the weakest 
month of the year, and wondering what stocks to sell.  If you 
were listening to CNBC late this week you may have heard Peter 
Greenberg, the travel editor, talking about how hotels are 
starting to take inventory away from online discounters like 
PCLN.  This could be a very ominous trend if it continues.  
PCLN's technical picture is bearish and its MACD is about to 
produce a new "sell" signal.  Meanwhile its P&F chart is very 
bearish with a $5.00 price target.  We're willing to speculate on 
a drop back toward the $15-16 range but first we'll wait for a 
breakdown under the $20.00 mark.  Our TRIGGER to short PCLN will 
be $19.85.  Until then we'll sit on the sidelines and watch.  
More aggressive traders can use a failed rally near $21.00 as an 
entry.

Annotated Chart:


Picked on September xx at $00.00 <-- see TRIGGER
Gain since picked:        - 0.00
Earnings Date           08/02/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:        478 thousand




============
PLAY UPDATES
============

  --------------------
  Bearish Play Updates
  --------------------

CTI Molecular Imaging - CTMI - cls: 8.74 chg: -0.01 stop: 9.81*new*

A week ago we were preaching patience as we waited for CTMI to 
break down from its trading range between $9.50 and $10.00.  
Today we're happy to report that our patience has been rewarded.  
CTMI has indeed broken down and the drop is picking up speed.  
Shares broke under the $9.00 level on very strong volume and its 
MACD has produced a new "sell" signal.  We've been lowering the 
stop loss all week and we're going to lower it again to $9.81, 
which is just above the Wednesday high.  Our initial target was 
the $7.50-7.00 range but CTMI is already down more than 9 percent 
from out entry point.  A few traders may want to take some 
profits now.  If CTMI manages a bounce we can look for resistance 
at the $9.00 mark and again at the $9.50 level.  

Annotated Chart:


Picked on August 15 at $ 9.67 
Gain since picked:     - 0.93
Earnings Date        08/05/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     322 thousand



============
CLOSED PLAYS
============


  --------------------
  Closed Bullish Plays
  --------------------

Macromedia - MACR - close: 18.56 change: -0.96 stop: 18.00

MACR spent several days trying to breakout over resistance at the 
$20.00 level but never made it.  Now shares are rolling over 
again and testing its rising trendline of support.  Friday's 4.9 
percent drop was demoralizing and its MACD indicator is close to 
producing a new "sell" signal.  While MACR should have decent 
support at the $18.00 level we want to cut our losses now and 
move on.  

Picked on August 18th  $19.78 
Gain since picked:     - 1.22
Earnings Date        07/28/04 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume:     1.0 million 





==================================================================
Stock Splits
==================================================================

Announcements
-------------





=================================================================
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send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
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For more information on advertising in PremierInvestor.net
Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************

Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.





PremierInvestor.net Newsletter          Weekend Edition 09-05-2004
                                                    section 3 of 3
Copyright (c) 2004, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

The entire newsletter is best viewed in COURIER 10 for alignment
=================================================================

In section three:

Market Watch for Week of September 5th, 2004
   - Major Earnings
   - Stock Splits
   - Economic Reports

Trading Ideas
  Value Plays With Bullish Signals
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
  Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
  Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
  Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)


=================================================================

==========================================
Market Watch for the week of August 23rd
==========================================

-----------------
Earnings Calendar
-----------------

Symbol  Co               Date           Comment      EPS Est

------------------------- MONDAY -------------------------------

-no major earnings announcements-

------------------------- TUESDAY ------------------------------

FLE  Fleetwood Entrprs.   Tue, Sep 07   Before the bell     0.06
HOV  Hovnanian Entrprs.   Tue, Sep 07   Before the bell     1.35
NMG.A Neiman Marcus       Tue, Sep 07   After the close     0.36
STX  Seagate Tech.        Tue, Sep 07   Before the bell     0.03
UTIW UTi Worldwide        Tue, Sep 07   -----N/A------      0.44


------------------------ WEDNESDAY -----------------------------

CMVT Comverse Technology  Wed, Sep 08   After the close     0.05
DAB  Dave & Busters       Wed, Sep 08   Before the bell     0.14
GLH  Gallaher Group       Wed, Sep 08   -----N/A------      2.01
IMMU Immonomedics         Wed, Sep 08   -----N/A------      n/a
KFY  Korn Ferry Intl      Wed, Sep 08   -----N/A------      0.14
MATK Martek Biosciences   Wed, Sep 08   -----N/A------      0.15
ULCM Ulticom              Wed, Sep 08   After the close     0.05

------------------------- THUSDAY -----------------------------

CRMT America's Car-Mart   Thr, Sep 09   Before the bell     0.59
CAND Candie's Inc         Thr, Sep 09   Before the bell     n/a
CBRL CBRL Group           Thr, Sep 09   Before the bell     0.66
JOSB Jos. A Bank Clothier Thr, Sep 09   ------N/A------     0.23
NSM  National Semiconduct Thr, Sep 09   ------N/A------     0.26
TTWO Take-Two Interactiv  Thr, Sep 09   After the close    -0.30
ZQK  Quiksilver           Thr, Sep 09   ------N/A------     0.29

------------------------- FRIDAY -------------------------------

-no major earnings announcements-


----------------------------------------------
Upcoming Stock Splits In The Next Two Weeks...
----------------------------------------------

Symbol  Company Name              Ratio    Payable     Executable

TCB     TCF Financial Corp        2:1      Sep   3rd   Sep   6th
TCHC    21st Century Holding      3:2      Sep   7th   Sep  10th
CVX     ChevronTexaco             2:1      Sep  10th   Sep  13th
SSP     E.W.Scripps Co            2:1      Sep  10th   Sep  13th
POOL    SCP Pool Corp             3:2      Sep  10th   Sep  13th
BLL     Ball Corp                 2:1      Sep  15th   Sep  16th
SF      Stifel Financial          4:3      Sep  15th   Sep  16th


--------------------------
Economic Reports This Week
--------------------------

Monday the markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday but the
shortened week is full.  Wall Street will digest the consumer
confidence numbers on Tuesday, Alan Greenspan on Wednesday, the
Chicago Fed Manufacturing index on Thursday and the PPI on Friday.

==============================================================
                       -For-           
----------------
Monday, 09/06/04
----------------
- U.S. Markets are CLOSED for Labor Day Holiday -

-----------------
Tuesday, 09/07/04
-----------------
Challenger Layoff Survey (DM)   Forecast:        Previous: +8%
Consumer Confidence Numbers     
Federal Reserve Governor McTeer speaks in Dallas

-------------------
Wednesday, 09/08/04
-------------------
Federal Reserve's Beige Book (DM)
July Consumer Credit (DM)
MBA Refinancing Index
Chain Store Sales 
Redbook Retail Sales data
Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan speaks to House Budget Cmt.


------------------
Thursday, 09/09/04
------------------
Initial Jobless Claims (BB)     Forecast:        Previous: 362K
Import/Export Prices for August
Wholesale Inventories for July
Chicago Fed Manufacturing Index
Fedeal Reserve Governor Yellen talks in Seattle
Crude Oil Inventories
Gasoline Inventories
Natural Gas Inventories
Money Supply numbers.

----------------
Friday, 09/10/04
----------------
PPI Index for August            Forecast:       Previous: +0.1%
Core PPI for August             Forecast:       Previous: +0.1%
Trade Balance for July          Forecast:       Previous:$55.8B
Federal Reserve Governor McTeer talks in Dallas
Federal Reserve Governor Pianalto talks in N. Mexico


Definitions:
DM=  During the Market
BB=  Before the Bell
AB=  After the Bell
NA=  Not Available


======================================================
  Trading Ideas
======================================================

This section contains stocks that meet criteria which may make
them of interest to long and short side traders.  These are not
recommendations, nor have they been reviewed by PremierInvestor
editors for investment potential.  However, each of them has
technical and fundamental characteristics that make them worthy
of further review by traders and investors looking for fresh ideas.
New stocks will appear daily following the market close.

Value Plays With Bullish Signals
---------------------------------
Ticker  Company Name               Close     Change

FNM     Fannie Mae                 76.06     +0.90
KMB     Kimberly Clark             68.13     +0.92
WM      Washington Mutual          39.65     +0.65
CVS     CVS Corp                   40.65     +0.55
PGR     Progressive Corp           81.06     +0.55
AET     Aetna                      94.03     +0.52

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks $5 to $20)
---------------------------------------

MICC    Millicom Intl Cellular     17.35     +1.71
MAGS    Magal Security             15.69     +1.29
HRT     Arrhythmia Research        15.85     +2.20

---------------------------------------
Breakout to Upside (Stocks over $20)
---------------------------------------
  
MBT     Mobile Telesys            140.75     +2.90
IST     Ispat Intl NV              27.14     +1.37
NIHD    NII Holdings               37.90     +1.08
QLGC    QLogic Corp                27.92     +1.02
PLCE    Children's Place           23.13     +1.45
ASE     American Science & Energy  24.85     +1.41

-------------------------------------------
Breakout to Downside (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

TM      Toyota Motor Co            77.24     -2.81
INTC    Intel Corp                 20.05     -1.58
MXIM    Maxim Integrated           40.94     -2.89
MCHP    Microchip Technology       25.26     -2.10
LFUS    Littlefuse Inc             33.95     -1.72
ESL     Esterline Tech             28.53     -4.15

-----------------------------------------
Recently Overbought With Bearish Signals (Stocks over $20)
-------------------------------------------

CAJ     Canon Inc (ADR)            47.09     -1.11
PLL     Pall Corp                  23.58     -1.38
ICST    Integrated Circuit         21.59     -1.00
SHFL    Shuffle Master Inc         32.22     -1.43
VIDE    Video Display Corp         31.01     -1.62


=================================================================
To stop receiving this PremierInvestor.net Newsletter,
send email to Contact Support
=================================================================
DISCLAIMER
=================================================================

This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education
of stock traders. The newsletter is an information service
only. The information provided herein is not to be construed
as an offer to buy or sell securities of any kind. The
newsletter picks are not to be considered a recommendation
of any stock but an information resource to aid the investor
in making an informed decision regarding trading in stocks. It
is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors and
staff of PremierInvestor.net may own, buy or sell securities
presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional
before trading in any security. The information provided has
been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. PremierInvestor.net
staff makes every effort to provide timely information to its
subscribers but cannot guarantee specific delivery times due to
factors beyond our control.

Please read our disclaimer at:
http://www.optioninvestor.com/page/oin/aboutus/disclaimer.html

*****************************************************************
ADVERTISING INFORMATION

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Newsletter, or any Premier Investor Network newsletter please
contact Contact Support.

*****************************************************************


Copyright (c) 2001-2004  PremierInvestor.net. and
The Premier Investor Network.
Do not duplicate or redistribute in any form.







DISCLAIMER

Option Investor Inc is neither a registered Investment Advisor nor a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that all information is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor is it to be construed as a recommendation to buy, hold or sell (short or otherwise) any security. All opinions, analyses and information included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, is made including but not limited to any representation or warranty concerning accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness or appropriateness. In addition, we do not necessarily update such opinions, analysis or information. Owners, employees and writers may have long or short positions in the securities that are discussed.

Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report and website should be independently verified.

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